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The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Human Health

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The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Human Health Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean LIMITED LC/CAR/L.317 22 October 2011 ORIGINAL: ENGLISH AN ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE HEALTH SECTOR IN GUYANA __________ This document has been reproduced without formal editing i Notes and explanations of symbols: The following symbols have been used in this study: A full stop (.) is used to indicate decimals n.a. is used to indicate that data are not available The use of a hyphen (-) between years, for example, 2010-2019, signifies an annual average for the calendar years involved, including the beginning and ending years, unless otherwise specified. The word ―dollar‖ refers to United States dollars, unless otherwise specified. The term ―billion‖ refers to a thousand million. The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. ii Acknowledgements The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean wishes to acknowledge the assistance of Elizabeth Emmanuel, consultant, in the preparation of this report. iii Table of contents Notes and explanations of symbols: .................................................................................................... i List of acronyms ................................................................................................................................. vi I. BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE OF REPORT ............................................................................ 1 II. LITERATURE REVIEW AND SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN HEALTH IN GUYANA ..................................................................................................... 3 A. SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONTEXT ......................................................................... 3 1. Geography and climate ................................................................................................................. 3 2. The Economy ................................................................................................................................ 4 3. Population and demographics ....................................................................................................... 5 4. Housing ......................................................................................................................................... 6 5. Water supply ................................................................................................................................. 7 6. Sanitation ...................................................................................................................................... 7 7. Environment and natural resources ............................................................................................... 8 8. Natural hazards ............................................................................................................................. 9 B. HEALTH STATUS AND DISEASE BURDEN IN GUYANA ...................................................................... 10 1. Morbidity .................................................................................................................................... 11 2. Mortality ..................................................................................................................................... 14 3. National health care system in Guyana ....................................................................................... 15 C. CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ............................................................................................... 17 1. Climate variability in the Caribbean ........................................................................................... 18 D. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HUMAN HEALTH ....................................................................... 19 1. Impact of a changing climate on infectious diseases .................................................................. 22 2. The case of the Caribbean ........................................................................................................... 23 E. THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE PREVALENCE OF CLIMATE-SENSITIVE DISEASES IN GUYANA .................................................................................................................................................. 25 1. Recent climate trends in Guyana ................................................................................................ 25 2. Global Circulation Model (GCM) projections of future climate ................................................ 25 3. Impact of climate trends and projects on the incidence of disease in Guyana ............................ 26 III. ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HUMAN HEALTH IN GUYANA ........................................................................................................................................... 33 A. DEFINING THE MODEL USED TO ASSESS THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HUMAN HEALTH IN GUYANA .................................................................................................................................................. 34 B. DATA ............................................................................................................................................... 34 1. Data description and sources....................................................................................................... 34 2. Climate data ................................................................................................................................ 36 3. Historical climate data ................................................................................................................ 37 iv 4. Forecast A2 and B2 climate-based scenario data 2011 – 2050 ................................................... 37 C. MODEL METHODOLOGY – THE POISSON REGRESSION ANALYSIS ................................................... 41 D. MALARIA ......................................................................................................................................... 42 1. Historical Data ............................................................................................................................ 42 2. Model results ............................................................................................................................... 43 3. Results ......................................................................................................................................... 43 4. Validating the model ................................................................................................................... 44 5. Generating climate-based disease forecasts for 2011 to 2050 .................................................... 46 6. Direct costs .................................................................................................................................. 47 7. Indirect costs ............................................................................................................................... 49 8. Summary of the impact of climate change on malaria and assessment of possible health interventions........................................................................................................................................ 50 E. DENGUE ........................................................................................................................................... 50 1. Historical data ............................................................................................................................. 51 2. Model .......................................................................................................................................... 52 3. Results ......................................................................................................................................... 52 4. 53 5. Validating the model ................................................................................................................... 53 6. Forecasts ..................................................................................................................................... 54 7. Direct costs associated with dengue ............................................................................................ 55 8. Indirect costs ............................................................................................................................... 56 9. Summary ..................................................................................................................................... 57 F. LEPTOSPIROSIS ................................................................................................................................ 58 1. Model .......................................................................................................................................... 58 2. Results ......................................................................................................................................... 59 3. Validating the model ................................................................................................................... 60 4. Forecasts ....................................................................................................................................
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