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Gfms Gold Survey 2016 Thomson Reuters Thomson Gfms Gold Survey 2016 GFMS GOLD SURVEY 2016 2016 GFMS GOLD SURVEY THOMSON REUTERS www.valcambi.com www.tanaka.co.jp GFMS GOLD SURVEY 2016 © 2016 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Thomson Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. Thomson Reuters and the Kinesis logo are trademarks of Thomson Reuters. cover sponsors cover Gold Survey Cover 2016.indd 1 04/03/2016 11:44:59 The cover of the GFMS Gold Survey 201 6 is sponsored by the following companies: TANAKA PRECIOUS METALS Tanaka Precious Metals is Japan’s leading precious metals refiner and manufacturer. Although best known internationally for its high specification industrial products, used in various applications ranging from semiconductors to communications, the company is also a producer and trader of a wide range of gold bullion bars and coins. Tanaka bars are acceptable “good delivery” on the London gold market. Valcambi is a leader in precious metals refining and operates one of the world’s largest and most efficient integrated precious metals plants situated on a 33 hectare site, at Balerna, Switzerland. We are one of the world’s largest manufacturers of minted ingots. Reacting to the demands of investors in different markets around the globe we are continuously carefully developing within the size range from 0.5 g to 1000 g, gold, silver, platinum and palladium minted bars in different forms and new designs. For our clients, according to their wishes we customize individually obverse and reverse of the bars, certificates and tailored packaging solutions. GFMSGFMS GoldGold MarketMarket Research All products produced in our foundry and minting facilities are certified by our laboratory, carefully inspected by our operators, individually packed and controlled before shipment. The Hallmark is not only a guarantee for quality of Swiss workmanship, it guarantees also the fineness of the most sought after bars in the world, desired by precious and Forecasts metals connoisseurs and investors alike. and Forecasts A Valcambi manufactured bar is not only sold at an outstanding price but is synonymous with unique craftsmanship, guaranteed fineness, transparency and reliability. SEEKSEEK MORE MORE Dig deeper into the gold market with GFMS research GFMS gold pages include: Dig deeper into the gold market with GFMS research GFMS gold pages include: and forecasts on Thomson Reuters Eikon. Use the • Historical supply and demand statistics andnew forecasts GFMS gold on Thomson pages to Reutersquickly understand Eikon. Use thethe key • • HistoricalForecasts supplyof supply, and demand demand and statistics price new GFMS gold pages to quickly understand the key drivers behind market movements. See which factors • Forecasts of supply, demand and price driversdrove behind price performance market movements. in the past, See what which will factors drive • Field research reports on key markets drovethe evolutionprice performance of these markets in the past, in the what future, will and drive what is • • FieldExclusive research analyst reports commentaries on key markets giving expert thehappening evolution inside of these various markets sectors in the of the future, industry and today.what is • Exclusiveinsight on analyst news and commentaries market developments giving expert happening inside various sectors of the industry today. insight on news and market developments To find out more contact us on [email protected] ToFor find more out informationmore contact visit us thomsonreuterseikon.com on [email protected] Cover designed by Valcambi and executed by BtoB Creativity, Coldrerio, Switzerland. For more information visit thomsonreuterseikon.com © 2015 Thomson Reuters. S019825 03/15. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. S019825 03/15. GFMS GOLD SURVEY 2016 BY: Rhona O’Connell, Head of Metals Research & Forecasts William Tankard, Manager, Mining Cameron Alexander, Manager, Regional Demand Ross Strachan, Manager, Regional Demand Sudheesh Nambiath, Lead Analyst Saida Litosh, Senior Analyst Janette Tourney, Senior Analyst Johann Wiebe, Senior Analyst Ling Wong, Senior Analyst Erica Rannestad, Senior Analyst Samson Li, Senior Analyst Natalie Scott-Gray, Analyst Dante Aranda, Analyst Gregory Rodwell, Analyst Alex Ji, Analyst Helen Cheng, Analyst Tamara Imangaliyeva, Analyst Beverley Salmon, Customer Relationship Manager PUBLISHED march 2016 BY THOMSON REUTERS The Thomson Reuters Building, 30 South Colonnade London, E14 5EP, UK E-mail: [email protected] Web: http://financial.thomsonreuters.com/en/products/tools-applications/trading-investment-tools/ eikon-trading-software/metal-trading.html THETHE GFMS GFMS TEAM TEAM AT AT THOMSON THOMSON REUTERSREUTERS GRATEFULLYGRATEFULLY THETHE FOLLOWING FOLLOWING COMPANIES COMPANIES FOR FOR THIS THIS YEAR’S YEAR’S GFMSGFMS www.pamp.com Italpreziosi SPA www.heraeus-precious-metals.com ACKNOWLEDGES THETHE GENEROUS GENEROUS SUPPORT SUPPORT FROM FROM GOLD SURVEYSURVEY AND AND ITS ITS QUARTERLY QUARTERLY UPDATES UPDATES Italpreziosi SPA TANAKA PRECIOUS METALS www.valcambi.com www.perthmint.com.au www.igr.com.tr TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Summary and Price Outlook 7 • Supply 8 • Demand 9 • Price and Market Outlook 12 2. Investment 13 • Overview 13 • Exchange Traded Funds 15 • Activity on Commodity Exchanges 16 • Physical Bar Investment 17 • Official Coins 18 • Medals and Imitation Coins 18 3. Mine Supply 20 • Mine Production 20 • Production Costs 28 • Producer Hedging 31 4. Supply from Above-Ground Stocks 32 • Scrap Supply 32 5. Official Sector 36 • Overview 36 • A Divergence Between Emerging Markets 37 6. Fabrication Demand 38 • Carat Jewellery 40 • Electronics 46 • Dentistry 48 • Other Industrial and Decorative Uses 48 • Outlook 48 7. Country Sections 50 • China 50 • India 58 • North America 66 • Turkey 69 • Japan 71 • Italy 73 • Switzerland 75 • Russia 77 • Germany 78 • United Kingdom 79 • Rest of Europe 80 • South America 81 • South Korea 82 • Indonesia 83 • Malaysia 84 • The Middle East 85 • Thailand 86 • Vietnam 87 • Rest of Asia 88 • Rest of the World 89 8. Appendices 90 TABLE OF CONTENTS © Thomson REUTERS 2016. All content provided in this publication is owned by Thomson Reuters and/or its affiliates (the “Thomson Reuters Content”) and protected by United States and international copyright laws. Thomson Reuters retains all proprietary rights to the Thomson Reuters Content. The Thomson Reuters Content may not be reproduced, copied, manipulated, transmitted, distributed or otherwise exploited for any commercial purpose without the express written consent of Thomson Reuters. All rights are expressly reserved. TRADEMARKS “Thomson Reuters” and the Thomson Reuters logo are trademarks of Thomson Reuters and its affiliated companies. The third party trademarks, service marks, trade names and logos featured in this publication are owned by the relevant third parties or their affiliates. No use of such mark, names or logos is permitted without the express written consent of the owner. DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES AND NO RELIANCE This publication is provided by Thomson Reuters on an “as is” and “as available” basis. Thomson Reuters makes no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the Thomson Reuters Content. Thomson Reuters is an aggregator and provider of information for general information purposes only and does not provide financial or other professional advice. Thomson Reuters is not responsible for any loss or damage resulting from any decisions made in reliance on the Thomson Reuters Content, including decisions relating to the sale and purchase of instruments, or risk management decisions. ISSN: 2055-1797 (Print) ISSN: 2055-1800 (Online) F ORTHCOMING RELeases • GFMS COPPER SurveY 2016 5th April 2016 • GFMS GOLD SurveY 2016: Q1 Update AND OUTLOOK 26th April 2016 • WORLD SILVER SurveY 2016 5th (New York) May 2016 6th (Mexico City) May 2016 • GFMS PLATINUM group metaLS SurveY 2016 12th May 2016 • GFMS GOLD SurveY 2016: Q2 Update AND OUTLOOK 26th July 2016 • GFMS base metaLS REVIEW AND OUTLOOK October 2016 • GFMS GOLD SurveY 2016: Q3 Update AND OUTLOOK October 2016 • GFMS GOLD SurveY 2016: Q4 Update AND OUTLOOK January 2017 AWCKNO Ledgements The estimates shown in the GFMS Gold Survey for the main components of mine production, scrap, fabrication and investment demand are calculated on the basis of a detailed supply/demand analysis for each of the markets listed in the main tables. In the vast majority of cases, the information used in these analyses has been derived from visits to the countries concerned and discussions with local traders, producers, refiners, fabricators and central bankers. Although we also make use of public domain data where this is relevant, it is the information provided by our contacts which ultimately makes this GFMS Gold Survey unique. We are grateful to all of them. NOTES UNITS USED troy ounce (oz) = 31.1035 grammes tonne = 1 metric tonne, 32,151 troy ounces carat = gold purity in parts per 24 • Unless otherwise stated, U.S. dollar prices and their equivalents are for the LBMA Gold Price PM. • Unless otherwise stated, all statistics on gold supply and demand are expressed in terms of fine gold content. • Throughout the tables, totals may not add due to independent rounding. TERMINOLOGY ” “- Not available or not applicable. “0.0” Zero or less than 0.05. “dollar”, “$” U.S. dollar unless otherwise stated. “Identifiable Investment” The sum of physical
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