GFMS GOLD SURVEY 2017 Q4 Update & Outlook 50
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50 YEARS GFMS GOLD SURVEY 2017 Q4 Update & Outlook TheThe covercover ofof thethe GFMSGFMS GoldGold Survey 2012017 6 is sponsored byby thethe followingfollowing companies:companies: TANAKA PRECIOUS METALS Tanaka Precious Metals is Japan’s leading precious metals refiner and manufacturer. Although best known internationally for its high specification industrial products, used in various applications ranging from semiconductors to communications, the company is also a producer and trader of a wide range of gold bullion bars and coins. Tanaka bars are acceptable “good delivery” on the London gold market. Valcambi is a leader in precious metals refining and operates one of the world’s largest and most efficient integrated precious metals plants situated on a 33 hectare site, at Balerna, Switzerland. We are one of the world’s largest manufacturers of minted ingots. Reacting to the demands of investors in different markets around the globe we are continuously carefully developing within the size range from 0.5 g to 1000 g, gold, silver, platinum and palladium minted bars in different forms and new designs. For our clients, according to their wishes we customize individually obverse and reverse of the bars, certificates and tailored packaging solutions. GFMSGFMS GoldGold MarketMarket Research All products produced in our foundry and minting facilities are certified by our laboratory, carefully inspected by our operators, individually packed and controlled before shipment. The Hallmark is not only a guarantee for quality of Swiss workmanship, it guarantees also the fineness of the most sought after bars in the world, desired by precious and Forecasts metals connoisseurs and investors alike. and Forecasts A Valcambi manufactured bar is not only sold at an outstanding price but is synonymous with unique craftsmanship, guaranteed fineness, transparency and reliability. SEEKSEEK MORE MORE Dig deeper into the gold market with GFMS research GFMS gold pages include: Dig deeper into the gold market with GFMS research GFMS gold pages include: and forecasts on Thomson Reuters Eikon. Use the • Historical supply and demand statistics andnew forecasts GFMS gold on Thomson pages to Reutersquickly understand Eikon. Use thethe key • • HistoricalForecasts supplyof supply, and demand demand and statistics price new GFMS gold pages to quickly understand the key drivers behind market movements. See which factors • Forecasts of supply, demand and price driversdrove behind price performance market movements. in the past, See what which will factors drive • Field research reports on key markets drovethe evolutionprice performance of these markets in the past, in the what future, will and drive what is • • FieldExclusive research analyst reports commentaries on key markets giving expert thehappening evolution inside of these various markets sectors in the of the future, industry and today.what is • Exclusiveinsight on analyst news and commentaries market developments giving expert happening inside various sectors of the industry today. insight on news and market developments To find out more contact us on [email protected] ToFor find more out informationmore contact visit us thomsonreuterseikon.com on [email protected] Cover designed by Valcambi and executed by BtoB Creativity, Coldrerio, Switzerland. For more information visit thomsonreuterseikon.com © 2015 Thomson Reuters. S019825 03/15. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. S019825 03/15. TheThe covercover ofof thethe GFMSGFMS GoldGold Survey 2012017 6 is sponsored byby thethe followingfollowing companies:companies: The GFMS Gold Survey 2017 and its Quarterly Updates have been kindly supported by the following companies MAJOR SPONSORS TANAKA PRECIOUS METALS Produits Artistiques Metaux Precieux YLG Bullion Tanaka Precious Metals is Japan’s leading precious metals refiner and manufacturer. Although best known internationally for its high specification industrial products, used in various applications ranging from semiconductors to communications, the company is also a producer and trader of a wide range of gold bullion bars and coins. Tanaka bars are acceptable “good delivery” on the London gold market. The Perth Mint Australia Italpreziosi SPA Valcambi is a leader in precious metals refining and operates one of the world’s largest and most efficient integrated precious metals plants situated on a 33 hectare site, at Balerna, Switzerland. We are one of the world’s largest manufacturers of minted ingots. Reacting to the demands of investors in different markets around the globe we are continuously carefully developing within the size range from 0.5 g to 1000 g, gold, silver, platinum and palladium minted bars in different forms and new designs. For our clients, according to their wishes we customize individually obverse and reverse of the bars, certificates and tailored packaging solutions. GFMSGFMS GoldGold MarketMarket Research All products produced in our foundry and minting facilities are certified by our laboratory, carefully inspected by our Tanaka Precious Metals valcambi suisse operators, individually packed and controlled before shipment. The Hallmark is not only a guarantee for quality of Swiss workmanship, it guarantees also the fineness of the most sought after bars in the world, desired by precious and Forecasts metals connoisseurs and investors alike. and Forecasts A Valcambi manufactured bar is not only sold at an outstanding price but is synonymous with unique craftsmanship, guaranteed fineness, transparency and reliability. SEEKSEEK MORE MORE Dig deeper into the gold market with GFMS research GFMS gold pages include: Dig deeper into the gold market with GFMS research GFMS gold pages include: and forecasts on Thomson Reuters Eikon. Use the • Historical supply and demand statistics andnew forecasts GFMS gold on Thomson pages to Reutersquickly understand Eikon. Use thethe key • • HistoricalForecasts supplyof supply, and demand demand and statistics price new GFMS gold pages to quickly understand the key drivers behind market movements. See which factors • Forecasts of supply, demand and price driversdrove behind price performance market movements. in the past, See what which will factors drive • Field research reports on key markets drovethe evolutionprice performance of these markets in the past, in the what future, will and drive what is • • FieldExclusive research analyst reports commentaries on key markets giving expert thehappening evolution inside of these various markets sectors in the of the future, industry and today.what is • Exclusiveinsight on analyst news and commentaries market developments giving expert happening inside various sectors of the industry today. insight on news and market developments Istanbul Gold Refinery Foretell Business Solutions To find out more contact us on [email protected] ToFor find more out informationmore contact visit us thomsonreuterseikon.com on [email protected] Cover designed by Valcambi and executed by BtoB Creativity, Coldrerio, Switzerland. For more information visit thomsonreuterseikon.com © 2015 Thomson Reuters. S019825 03/15. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. S019825 03/15. TABLE OF CONTENTS • Global Review and Outlook 5-6 • China 7-8 • Jewellery Consumption Table 9 • India 11-12 • United States 13 • Retail Investment Table (bars and coins) 14 • Mine Supply & Producer Hedging 16-18 • The Federal Reserve in 2017 and Outlook for 2018 19 • Switzerland 20 • UAE 21 • Bitcoin 22-23 • Thailand 24 • Vietnam 25 PRODUCED BY Rhona O’Connell, Head of Metals Research & Forecasts Cameron Alexander, Manager, Regional Demand Saida Litosh, Manager, Regional Demand Sudheesh Nambiath, Lead Analyst Johann Wiebe, Lead Analyst Samson Li, Senior Analyst Dante Aranda, Senior Analyst Natalie Scott-Gray, Analyst Zen Chan, Analyst GFMS GOLD SURVEY Q4 2017 GLOBAL REVIEW AND OUTLOOK • Gold prices slipped to a near five-month low by mid-December ahead of the FOMC meeting, where the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the third time in a move widely expected by the markets. Gold recovered most of earlier losses in the second half of the month, helped by a weaker U.S. dollar, finishing the year on an upbeat note. GFMS GOLD SURVEY • Q4 physical demand increased over the previous quarter, although it was only slightly higher year-on-year. This, along with lower mine production, saw the physical surplus shrink to just three tonnes. In the final quarter of 2017 the gold market’s attention shifted to the FOMC December meeting and the U.S. tax reform. Gold prices came under renewed pressure amid dollar strength in the run up to the meeting, where the Fed was widely expected to lift its benchmark interest rate, sending gold to a five-month low of $1,241/oz (based on PM fix). The final weeks of the year, however, saw gold prices recover the bulk of previous losses as the dollar weakened against other major currencies after the Fed reiterated that a gradual path of rate increases remained appropriate even in light of the new tax reform. With improving economic sentiment, sustained equity market strength and growing risk appetite investors’ interest in gold remained relatively lacklustre in 2017, and the final quarter was not an exception in that sense. Western investors reduced their gold ETF holdings by five tonnes in Q4; while this was a much better performance compared to Q4 2016, net purchases for 2017, standing at 170 tonnes, were still considerably lower compared to a year earlier. Retail investment, comprising