Operational fire danger rating system in New Zealand and prediction of fire season severity Jim Salinger National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, Auckland, NZ Grant Pearce Scion Research, Christchurch, NZ
[email protected] Fire Danger Rating Workshop, Edmonton, Alberta, 14-16 July Outline • Background • New Zealand fire danger rating system • Fire weather monitoring network • Seasonal climate prediction • Factors causing high seasonal fire risk • Seasonal fire climate outlooks • Conclusions • 3000 “rural” fires per y – – 5000 fire numbers increasing at 200-300 per year 4500 escapes from land clearing burns common, arson increasing 4000 3500 3000 Background 2500 Forest Number2000 of fires Scrub Grass 1500 No. fires 1000 500 0 1988/89 ear, burning about 6500 ha 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 20000 18000 2002/03 16000 14000 2003/04 12000 2004/05 10000 8000 6000 (Source2005/06 4000 2006/07 2000 Area burned (ha) 0 : NRFA Annual Return of Fires) Background – Major Fires • 1945/46 central North Island – 140,000 ha total, including 13,000 ha pine plantation • 1955 Balmoral (Canterbury) – 3100 ha pine plantation • 1983 Ohinewairua (CNI) – 15 000 ha of tussock + beech • 1999 Alexandra – 9600 ha in two grass fires • 2000 Blenheim – 7000 ha in two grass fires • 2003/04 Canterbury – major fires at West Melton, Flock Hill, Dunsandel and Mt Somers Background Weather and climate • combined effects result in increased fire risk • significant fires often occur under