RfG Banding Thresholds – FES Scenario Data

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[email protected] Agenda

 Intro + Key Points  Data Profiles:  Transmission System Demand  Distributed Generation FES - Future Energy Scenarios  Sub 1MW Generation Distributed Generation – generation directly-connected to the Distribution network  Merit Orders for Response (also known as ‘embedded generation’)

 Next steps Merit Order – the commercial viability of response providers  Back up data:  Transmission Generation

2 Intro: RfG Banding

 GC0048 discussions on RfG banding have focused on reasonable expectations of Network Operators and Generators co-ordinating to manage the GB energy network  The following data presents viable scenarios for system demand, generation, and response levels in the coming two decades, to illustrate how system management may change  The data is not a forecast, but is a reasonable expectation based on inputs provided to NGET from external parties. It has also been consulted on with Transmission and Distribution System Owners  It is hoped this data will provide a context for this workgroup agreeing where the GB banding thresholds should be set

 http://fes.nationalgrid.com/ 3 Intro: Future Energy Scenarios

 Gone Green is a world where green ambition is not restrained by financial limitations. New technologies are introduced and embraced by society, enabling all carbon and renewable targets to be met on time  Slow Progression is a world where slower economic growth restricts market conditions. Money that is available is spent focusing on low cost long-term solutions to achieve de-carbonisation, albeit it later than the target dates  No Progression is a world focused on achieving security of supply at the lowest possible cost. With low economic growth, traditional sources of gas and electricity dominate, with little innovation affecting how we use energy  Consumer Power is a world of relative wealth, fast paced research and development and spending. Innovation is focused on meeting the needs of consumers, who focus on improving their quality of life 4 Headlines

 Rapid growth of Distributed Generation (DG), a large proportion at Micro-Generation (sub 1MW) scale.  Primarily renewable technologies, at MG level high volumes of Solar PV  Large volumes of intermittent DG lead to a significant reduction of system demand at summer minimum through export netting  100% yield (not impossible) for solar, and higher wind outputs spikes, would give drastically different daily demand profiles  The Band A requirements do not mandate operational metering or instruction facilities other than curtailment.  Frequency and voltage regulation across an uncertain demand/generation balance creates problems for the TSO  Traditional approaches to network containment in emergencies unlikely to work. The TSO would inevitably have to request DNOs to disconnect DG  RfG banding needs to consider levels of DG visibility and service availability, whilst markets need to evolve to support involvement of 5 smaller players, aggregators, suppliers etc Demand

6 Annualised Transmission Demand

7 Transmission Demand – Summer Minimum

 Max/Min scenario delta at end of FES period (1400): 14.3 GW  CP and GG scenarios introduce significant concern of future system stability, including availability of viable balancing providers and the need for DSR, or worst case, disconnection of DG 8 (Excludes interconnector export + generator own-use) Distributed Generation

9 Current % Of Distributed Generation connected by size (Dec 2014)

Visible = 2% 17% 18% 6%

11% 29% 17%

10 Distributed Generation (DG) Profiles

40

35

30 Consumer Power TOTAL

25 Gone Green TOTAL

No Progression TOTAL 20 GW Slow Progression TOTAL 15

10

5

0

 Max/Min scenario delta: 11.9GW  Over 20GW increase in DG under CP scenario in 20 year horizon  Under NP, DG still anticipated to double in capacity over the course of the scenarios 11 Generation Profiles (DG) – Solar; Wind

18 16 14 12

10 Consumer Power Solar

GW 8 Gone Green Solar 6 No Progression Solar 4 Slow Progression Solar 2

0

2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30 2030/31 2031/32 2032/33 2033/34 2034/35 2035/36

9 8 7 6 5 Consumer Power Wind 4 Gone Green Wind 3 No Progression Wind 2 1 Slow Progression Wind

0

2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30 2030/31 2031/32 2032/33 2033/34 2034/35 2035/36 12 Gone Green = Slow Progression Generation Profiles (DG) – Non-Wind/Solar

13 Sub 1MW Generation

14 Sub 1MW Generation Installed Capacity MW

15 Sub 1MW Generation (Installed Capacity MW) Technology

20,000.00 18,000.00 16,000.00 Gone Green Fuel Cell 14,000.00 Gone Green mCHP 12,000.00 Gone Green Biomass CHP 10,000.00 Gone Green Bio-gas CHP 8,000.00 Gone Green Gas CHP 6,000.00 Gone Green Hydro 4,000.00 Gone Green Wind 2,000.00 Gone Green PV

-

2026 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

16,000.00

14,000.00 Slow Progression Fuel Cell 12,000.00 Slow Progression mCHP 10,000.00 Slow Progression Biomass CHP 8,000.00 Slow Progression Bio-gas CHP 6,000.00 Slow Progression Gas CHP

4,000.00 Slow Progression Hydro Slow Progression Wind 2,000.00 Slow Progression PV

- 16

2035 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Sub 1MW Generation (Installed Capacity MW) Technology

8,000.00

7,000.00 No Progression Fuel Cell 6,000.00 No Progression mCHP 5,000.00 No Progression Biomass CHP

4,000.00 No Progression Bio-gas CHP No Progression Gas CHP 3,000.00 No Progression Hydro 2,000.00 No Progression Wind 1,000.00 No Progression PV - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 25,000.00

20,000.00 Consumer Power Fuel Cell Consumer Power mCHP

15,000.00 Consumer Power Biomass CHP Consumer Power Bio-gas CHP

10,000.00 Consumer Power Gas CHP Consumer Power Hydro 5,000.00 Consumer Power Wind Consumer Power PV - 17 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Sub 1MW Generation (Installed MW) Residential vs Other I&C Split

25000 25000

20000 Slow 20000 Progression Gone Green Commercial Commercial 15000 15000 Total Total Slow 10000 10000 Gone Green Progression Residential Residential 5000 Total Total 5000

0 0

25000 25000

20000 Consumer 20000 No Power Progression 15000 Commercial 15000 Commercial Total Total

10000 Consumer 10000 No Power Progression 5000 Residential 5000 Residential Total Total 0 0

18 Frequency Response

19 Pinch Point Definitions

 Summer minimum (PM) – Average summer’s afternoon where demand is low, but where large volumes of un-instructable PV generation could spill onto the system  Winter Peak – High demand periods where sufficient generation needs to be on the system (or capable of dispatch) to meet it, to avoid Frequency and inertia issues caused by unplanned System or generator outages/generator under-delivery etc.

20 Potential Pool of Response Providers: Installed Capacity (MW)

70000

60000

50000

40000 Consumer Power

30000 Gone Green No Progression 20000 Slow Progression

10000

0

2015/16 2014/15 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30 2030/31 2031/32 2032/33 2033/34 2034/35 2035/36

21 Commercially available response (MW) @ Summer Minimum (PM)

30000

25000

20000

Consumer Power (In Merit) 15000 MW Gone Green (In Merit) No Progression (In Merit) 10000 Slow Progression (In Merit)

5000

0

2020/21 2034/35 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30 2030/31 2031/32 2032/33 2033/34 2035/36

22 Commercially available response (MW) @ Winter Peak

60000

58000

56000

54000

52000 Consumer Power (in merit) 50000 Slow Progression (in merit) 48000 No Progression (in merit) Gone Green (in merit) 46000

44000

42000

40000

2019/20 2028/29 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2029/30 2030/31 2031/32 2032/33 2033/34 2034/35 2035/36

23 Conclusions

24 Conclusions (based on FES)…

 Significant proportion of new generation capacity in future years will be ‘invisible’ in real time to the TSO/DNOs, based on today’s connection and compliance requirements  The majority of new capacity will be intermittent load (e.g. wind/PV), and is likely backed by a subsidy mechanism (CfD) which discourages providing balancing support  Summer minimum will be particularly difficult for the TSO to manage  Synchronous thermal plant (traditional balancing support providers) will consist primarily of gas; can/should new nuclear support?  The co-ordination of TSOs, DNOs, suppliers, aggregators will be critical to manage this position in the coming years  RfG banding has a big part to play in mitigating these viable concerns 25 NGET Conclusions

 It is essential that we have the ability (perhaps through an aggregator/supplier) to instruct DG to maintain system security  Potentially also a huge market opportunity  At the present time DG is not mandated to provide Ancillary Services. The options to mitigate are to either; (a) require some kind of support (via technical capability); or (b) to request disconnection in emergency circumstances?  Fault Ride Through and reactive capability/ voltage support will need some consideration as will Grid Code / D Code requirements for micro generation.  Whilst RfG was intended to address some of these issues it is unlikely to be strong enough particularly for micro plant.  Aggregators or storage (batteries) could also help with this issue. 26 Next Steps

 [To be agreed]

27 SUPPORTING INFORMATION

28 More info on four scenarios

29 Transmission Generation

30 Transmission (Tx) Generation: Total Capacity (MW)

120,000

110,000

100,000 Grand Total Consumer Power

Grand Total Gone Green

90,000 MW

Grand Total No progression 80,000

Grand Total Slow Progression 70,000

60,000

2027/28 2028/29 2029/30 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2030/31 2031/32 2032/33 2033/34 2034/35 2035/36 Years 31 Tx Generation Capacity (MW): Coal; Gas

20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 Coal Consumer Power 10000 Coal Gone Green 8000 6000 Coal No progression 4000 Coal Slow Progression 2000 0

45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 Gas Consumer Power 20000 Gas Gone Green 15000 Gas No progression 10000 Gas Slow Progression 5000 0

32 Tx Generation Capacity (MW): Nuclear; Wind

16000 14000 12000 10000 Nuclear Consumer Power 8000 Nuclear Gone Green 6000 Nuclear No progression 4000 Nuclear Slow Progression 2000 0

45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 Wind Consumer Power 20000 Wind Gone Green 15000 Wind No progression 10000 Wind Slow Progression 5000 0

33 Tx Generation Capacity (MW): Solar; Interconnector

600

500

400 Solar Consumer Power 300 Solar Gone Green 200 Solar No progression Solar Slow Progression 100

0

20000 18000 16000 14000 Interconnector Consumer Power 12000 10000 Interconnector Gone Green 8000 6000 Interconnector No progression 4000 2000 Interconnector Slow Progression 0 34 Generation Capacity Changes

Technology Scenario Start MW End MW Change MW Change %

Biomass Slow Progression 1087 2567 1480 136.15%

Biomass Gone Green 1087 677 -410 -37.72%

Biomass Consumer Power 1087 397 -690 -63.48%

Biomass No progression 1087 397 -690 -63.48%

Coal No progression 18748 3902 -14846 -79.19%

Coal Consumer Power 18748 1914 -16834 -89.79%

Coal Slow Progression 18748 1914 -16834 -89.79%

Coal Gone Green 18748 0 -18748 -100.00%

Gas No progression 30791 39866 9075 29.47%

Gas Consumer Power 30791 30201 -590 -1.92%

Gas Slow Progression 30791 29261 -1530 -4.97%

Gas Gone Green 29296 24878 -4418 -15.08% 35 Generation Capacity Changes

Technology Scenario Start MW End MW Change MW Change %

Nuclear Gone Green 8756 14079 5323 60.79%

Nuclear Consumer Power 8756 10692 1936 22.11%

Nuclear Slow Progression 8756 7352 -1404 -16.03%

Nuclear No progression 8756 4552 -4204 -48.01%

Hydro Consumer Power 1122 1122 0 0.00%

Hydro Gone Green 1122 1122 0 0.00%

Hydro No progression 1122 1122 0 0.00%

Hydro Slow Progression 1122 1122 0 0.00%

Interconnector Gone Green 3750 17700 13950 372.00%

Interconnector Slow Progression 3750 14200 10450 278.67%

Interconnector Consumer Power 3750 10800 7050 188.00%

Interconnector No progression 3750 9800 6050 161.33% 36 Generation Capacity Changes

Technology Scenario Start MW End MW Change MW Change %

Oil Consumer Power 1140 0 -1140 -100.00%

Oil Gone Green 570 0 -570 -100.00%

Oil No progression 1140 0 -1140 -100.00%

Oil Slow Progression 1140 0 -1140 -100.00%

Pumped Storage Gone Green 2744 5256 2512 91.55%

Pumped Storage Consumer Power 2744 3356 612 22.30%

Pumped Storage Slow Progression 2744 3356 612 22.30%

Pumped Storage No progression 2744 2744 0 0.00%

Wind Gone Green 7723 41010.5 33287.5 431.02%

Wind Slow Progression 7723 34026 26303 340.58%

Wind Consumer Power 7723 23843 16120 208.73%

Wind No progression 7723 20677 12954 167.73% 37 Generation Mix

Consumer Power: 2014-15 Consumer Power: 2035-36

Gas Gas Coal Coal Nuclear Nuclear Wind Wind Interconnector Interconnector Pumped_Storage Pumped_Storage Oil Oil Hydro Hydro Biomass Biomass CCS CCS Marine Marine Solar Solar

38 Generation Mix

Gone Green: 2014-15 Gone Green: 2035-36

Gas Gas Coal Coal Nuclear Nuclear Wind Wind Interconnector Interconnector Pumped_Storage Pumped_Storage Hydro Hydro Biomass Biomass Oil Oil CCS CCS Marine Marine Solar Solar

39 Generation Mix

No Progression: 2014-15 No Progression: 2035-36

Gas Gas Coal Coal Nuclear Nuclear Wind Wind Interconnector Interconnector Pumped_Storage Pumped_Storage Oil Oil Hydro Hydro Biomass Biomass CCS CCS Marine Marine Solar Solar

40 Generation Mix

Slow Progression: 2014-15 Slow Progression: 2035-36

Gas Gas Coal Coal Nuclear Nuclear Wind Wind Interconnector Interconnector Pumped_Storage Pumped_Storage Oil Oil Hydro Hydro Biomass Biomass CCS CCS Marine Marine Solar Solar

41