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Powerpoint Template RfG Banding Thresholds – FES Scenario Data Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line. [email protected] Agenda Intro + Key Points Data Profiles: Transmission System Demand Distributed Generation FES - Future Energy Scenarios Sub 1MW Generation Distributed Generation – generation directly-connected to the Distribution network Merit Orders for Response (also known as ‘embedded generation’) Next steps Merit Order – the commercial viability of response providers Back up data: Transmission Generation 2 Intro: RfG Banding GC0048 discussions on RfG banding have focused on reasonable expectations of Network Operators and Generators co-ordinating to manage the GB energy network The following data presents viable scenarios for system demand, generation, and response levels in the coming two decades, to illustrate how system management may change The data is not a forecast, but is a reasonable expectation based on inputs provided to NGET from external parties. It has also been consulted on with Transmission and Distribution System Owners It is hoped this data will provide a context for this workgroup agreeing where the GB banding thresholds should be set http://fes.nationalgrid.com/ 3 Intro: Future Energy Scenarios Gone Green is a world where green ambition is not restrained by financial limitations. New technologies are introduced and embraced by society, enabling all carbon and renewable targets to be met on time Slow Progression is a world where slower economic growth restricts market conditions. Money that is available is spent focusing on low cost long-term solutions to achieve de-carbonisation, albeit it later than the target dates No Progression is a world focused on achieving security of supply at the lowest possible cost. With low economic growth, traditional sources of gas and electricity dominate, with little innovation affecting how we use energy Consumer Power is a world of relative wealth, fast paced research and development and spending. Innovation is focused on meeting the needs of consumers, who focus on improving their quality of life 4 Headlines Rapid growth of Distributed Generation (DG), a large proportion at Micro-Generation (sub 1MW) scale. Primarily renewable technologies, at MG level high volumes of Solar PV Large volumes of intermittent DG lead to a significant reduction of system demand at summer minimum through export netting 100% yield (not impossible) for solar, and higher wind outputs spikes, would give drastically different daily demand profiles The Band A requirements do not mandate operational metering or instruction facilities other than curtailment. Frequency and voltage regulation across an uncertain demand/generation balance creates problems for the TSO Traditional approaches to network containment in emergencies unlikely to work. The TSO would inevitably have to request DNOs to disconnect DG RfG banding needs to consider levels of DG visibility and service availability, whilst markets need to evolve to support involvement of 5 smaller players, aggregators, suppliers etc Demand 6 Annualised Transmission Demand 7 Transmission Demand – Summer Minimum Max/Min scenario delta at end of FES period (1400): 14.3 GW CP and GG scenarios introduce significant concern of future system stability, including availability of viable balancing providers and the need for DSR, or worst case, disconnection of DG 8 (Excludes interconnector export + generator own-use) Distributed Generation 9 Current % Of Distributed Generation connected by size (Dec 2014) Visible = 2% 17% 18% 6% 11% 29% 17% 10 Distributed Generation (DG) Profiles 40 35 30 Consumer Power TOTAL 25 Gone Green TOTAL No Progression TOTAL 20 GW Slow Progression TOTAL 15 10 5 0 Max/Min scenario delta: 11.9GW Over 20GW increase in DG under CP scenario in 20 year horizon Under NP, DG still anticipated to double in capacity over the course of the scenarios 11 Gone Gone Green = SlowProgression GW 10 12 14 16 18 0 2 4 6 8 Generation Profiles (DG) 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2022/23 2014/15 2023/24 2015/16 2024/25 2016/17 2025/26 2017/18 2026/27 2018/19 2027/28 2019/20 2028/29 2020/21 2029/30 2021/22 2030/31 2022/23 2031/32 2023/24 2032/33 2024/25 2033/34 2025/26 2026/27 2034/35 2027/28 2035/36 – 2028/29 2029/30 Solar; Wind 2030/31 Slow ProgressionSolar No Progression Solar Gone Green Solar ConsumerPowerSolar 2031/32 2032/33 2033/34 2034/35 2035/36 Slow ProgressionWind No Progression Wind Gone Green Wind ConsumerPowerWind 12 Generation Profiles (DG) – Non-Wind/Solar 13 Sub 1MW Generation 14 Sub 1MW Generation Installed Capacity MW 15 10,000.00 12,000.00 14,000.00 16,000.00 18,000.00 20,000.00 2,000.00 4,000.00 6,000.00 8,000.00 - Technology MW) Capacity (Installed Generation 1MW Sub 2014 2015 2016 2017 10,000.00 12,000.00 14,000.00 16,000.00 2,000.00 4,000.00 6,000.00 8,000.00 2018 2019 - 2020 2021 2014 2022 2015 2023 2016 2024 2017 2018 2025 2019 2026 2020 2027 2021 2028 2022 2029 2023 2030 2024 2031 2025 2032 2026 2033 2027 2034 2028 2035 2029 2030 Gone Green PV Gone Green Wind Gone Green Hydro Gone Green Gas CHP Gone Green Bio-gas CHP Gone Green Biomass CHP Gone Green mCHP Gone Green Fuel Cell 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Slow ProgressionPV Slow ProgressionWind Slow ProgressionHydro Slow ProgressionGasCHP SlowBio-gas Progression CHP Slow ProgressionBiomass CHP Slow ProgressionmCHP Slow ProgressionFuel Cell 16 Sub 1MW Generation (Installed Capacity MW) Technology 8,000.00 7,000.00 No Progression Fuel Cell 6,000.00 No Progression mCHP 5,000.00 No Progression Biomass CHP 4,000.00 No Progression Bio-gas CHP No Progression Gas CHP 3,000.00 No Progression Hydro 2,000.00 No Progression Wind 1,000.00 No Progression PV - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 25,000.00 20,000.00 Consumer Power Fuel Cell Consumer Power mCHP 15,000.00 Consumer Power Biomass CHP Consumer Power Bio-gas CHP 10,000.00 Consumer Power Gas CHP Consumer Power Hydro 5,000.00 Consumer Power Wind Consumer Power PV - 17 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Sub 1MW Generation (Installed MW) Residential vs Other I&C Split 25000 25000 20000 Slow 20000 Progression Gone Green Commercial Commercial 15000 15000 Total Total Slow 10000 10000 Gone Green Progression Residential Residential 5000 Total Total 5000 0 0 25000 25000 20000 Consumer 20000 No Power Progression 15000 Commercial 15000 Commercial Total Total 10000 Consumer 10000 No Power Progression 5000 Residential 5000 Residential Total Total 0 0 18 Frequency Response 19 Pinch Point Definitions Summer minimum (PM) – Average summer’s afternoon where demand is low, but where large volumes of un-instructable PV generation could spill onto the system Winter Peak – High demand periods where sufficient generation needs to be on the system (or capable of dispatch) to meet it, to avoid Frequency and inertia issues caused by unplanned System or generator outages/generator under-delivery etc. 20 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 0 Installed Capacity (MW)Capacity Installed of Response Providers: Pool Potential 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30 2030/31 2031/32 2032/33 2033/34 2034/35 2035/36 Slow Progression Slow Progression No Green Gone Power Consumer 21 MW 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 @ Summer Minimum (PM) Summer Minimum@ response (MW)Commercially available 5000 0 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30 2030/31 2031/32 2032/33 2033/34 2034/35 2035/36 Slow Progression (In Merit) Slow Progression (In Merit) Progression No (In Merit) Gone Green Merit)Power Consumer (In 22 40000 42000 44000 46000 48000 50000 52000 54000 56000 58000 60000 @ Winter Peak Winter @ response (MW)Commercially available 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30 2030/31 2031/32 2032/33 2033/34 2034/35 2035/36 Gone Green (in merit) Gone Green (in Progression merit) No merit) (in Progression Slow Power merit) Consumer (in 23 Conclusions 24 Conclusions (based on FES)… Significant proportion of new generation capacity in future years will be ‘invisible’ in real time to the TSO/DNOs, based on today’s connection and compliance requirements The majority of new capacity will be intermittent load (e.g. wind/PV), and is likely backed by a subsidy mechanism (CfD) which discourages providing balancing support Summer minimum will be particularly difficult for the TSO to manage Synchronous thermal plant (traditional balancing support providers) will consist primarily of gas; can/should new nuclear support? The co-ordination of TSOs, DNOs, suppliers, aggregators will be critical to manage this position in the coming years RfG banding has a big part to play in mitigating these viable concerns 25 NGET Conclusions It is essential that we have the ability (perhaps through an aggregator/supplier) to instruct DG to maintain system security Potentially also a huge market opportunity At the present time DG is not mandated to provide Ancillary Services.
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