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Electricity Ten Year Statement Electricity Ten Year Statement UK electricity transmission NOVEMBER 2012 Electricity Ten Year Statement November 2012 This is the first edition of the Electricity Ten Year Statement (ETYS), which replaces the former National Grid electricity publications namely the Seven Year Statement (SYS) and the Offshore Development Information Statement (ODIS). ETYS is produced by National Grid with the proposed NDP is a National Grid policy assistance of the two onshore Transmission and applies to the onshore electricity Owners (TOs), Scottish Power Transmission transmission system in England & Wales. (SPT) and Scottish Hydro Electric Transmission (SHE Transmission). The objective of We hope that you will agree that we have the publication is to provide clarity and met these targets, although we do recognise transparency on the potential development that this is the first edition and that future of the National Electricity Transmission publications will benefit from further input Systems (NETS). The document considers from its readership. this development through strategic network modelling and design capability, while trying In order to make the 2013 edition of to capture future uncertainty with regards to the ETYS even better and ensure that the generation mix, operation of the network we continue to add value through the and technology development. information that we provide, I encourage you to tell us what you think by writing to us at In delivering the ETYS we set ourselves [email protected]. Please various key objectives based upon your views also refer to the way forward chapter of this expressed in our April 2012 consultation: document for further information on our 2013 ETYS consultation process and how you can To provide a document with a high level provide feedback. of clarity. To ensure that there is a high degree of I hope that you find this an informative transparency around our assumptions and useful document and look forward to and the analysis that we provide. receiving your feedback. To publish an electricity document that utilises enhanced modelling capability to illustrate the development of the transmission system, taking into account the considerable future uncertainties and the interaction between the onshore and offshore network going forwards. In addition, we have included an outline of our proposed Network Development Policy (NDP) which defines how we will assess the Mike Calviou need to progress wider transmission system Director of Transmission Network Service reinforcements to meet the requirements National Grid of our customers in an economic and [email protected] efficient manner. Please note that the Page 3 Electricity Ten Year Statement November 2012 Contents Foreword /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 3 3.7 Wider boundaries ///////////////////////////////////////////95 Contents //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 4 3.7.1 B1 ////////////////////////////////////////////////////////95 Executive summary ////////////////////////////////////////////// 6 3.7.2 B2 ////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 101 Chapter 1 Introduction //////////////////////////////////////////10 3.7.3 B3 ////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 105 1.1 Background //////////////////////////////////////////////////12 3.7.4 B4 ////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 107 1.2 Methodology /////////////////////////////////////////////////13 3.7.5 B5 ////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 111 1.3 Navigation through the document //////////////////////14 3.7.6 B6 ////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 114 Chapter 2 Scenarios /////////////////////////////////////////////16 3.7.7 B7 ////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 117 2.1 Future Energy Scenarios //////////////////////////////////17 3.7.8 B7a //////////////////////////////////////////////////// 121 2.2 ETYS background and scenarios ///////////////////////18 3.7.9 B8 ////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 125 2.3 Demand ///////////////////////////////////////////////////////19 3.7.10 B9 //////////////////////////////////////////////////// 129 2.4 Generating capacity ////////////////////////////////////////22 3.7.11 B10 /////////////////////////////////////////////////// 132 2.5 Plant margins ////////////////////////////////////////////////28 3.7.12 B11 /////////////////////////////////////////////////// 135 2.6 Renewables //////////////////////////////////////////////////33 3.7.13 B12 /////////////////////////////////////////////////// 139 2.7 Interconnectors /////////////////////////////////////////////42 3.7.14 B13 /////////////////////////////////////////////////// 142 2.8 Non-GB generation /////////////////////////////////////////43 3.7.15 SC1 ////////////////////////////////////////////////// 145 2.9 Embedded generation /////////////////////////////////////44 3.7.16 B14 /////////////////////////////////////////////////// 148 Chapter 3 Network capability and future requirements /48 3.7.17 B14e ///////////////////////////////////////////////// 151 3.1 Introduction //////////////////////////////////////////////////49 3.7.18 B15 /////////////////////////////////////////////////// 154 3.2 Background //////////////////////////////////////////////////50 3.7.19 B16 /////////////////////////////////////////////////// 157 3.3 Co-ordinating the overall transmission network /////51 3.7.20 B17 /////////////////////////////////////////////////// 161 3.4 Design criteria for the NETS //////////////////////////////52 3.8 National Grid (NDP) process /////////////////////////// 164 3.5 East Coast local boundaries /////////////////////////////65 3.9 Development consents ////////////////////////////////// 195 3.5.3 EC1 //////////////////////////////////////////////////////67 3.10 Technologies ///////////////////////////////////////////// 197 3.5.4 EC3 //////////////////////////////////////////////////////70 3.11 Potential development of integrated 3.5.5 EC5 //////////////////////////////////////////////////////73 offshore network //////////////////////////////////////// 198 3.5.6 EC6 //////////////////////////////////////////////////////76 3.12 European interconnection ///////////////////////////// 202 3.5.7 EC7 //////////////////////////////////////////////////////78 3.13 Areas of future interest ///////////////////////////////// 206 3.6 North Wales local boundaries ////////////////////////////81 Chapter 4 System operation ///////////////////////////////// 208 3.6.3 NW1 /////////////////////////////////////////////////////83 4.1 Introduction //////////////////////////////////////////////// 209 3.6.4 NW2 /////////////////////////////////////////////////////86 4.2 System operability //////////////////////////////////////// 213 3.6.5 NW3 /////////////////////////////////////////////////////89 4.3 System design and operation challenges /////////// 215 3.6.6 NW4 /////////////////////////////////////////////////////92 4.4 Opportunities ////////////////////////////////////////////// 234 Chapter 5 Way forward /////////////////////////////////////// 238 5.1 Introduction //////////////////////////////////////////////// 239 5.2 Stakeholder engagement /////////////////////////////// 240 5.3 Timetable for 2013 engagement /////////////////////// 241 5.4 Continuous development /////////////////////////////// 242 Page 5 Executive summary The purpose of the ETYS is to illustrate the future development of the National Electricity Transmission System (NETS) under a range of plausible energy scenarios and to provide information to assist customers in identifying opportunities to connect to the NETS. To meet these aims this document details a range of potential future energy mixes, the subsequent development of the transmission system under these scenarios and the challenges this presents with regard to the operation of the system. The UK has legislation in place setting limits on Generation, demand and the evolution of the emissions of greenhouse gases as far ahead regulatory policies are captured by considering as 2050. There is also legislation mandating a the future energy scenarios outlined above. These minimum level of renewable energy in 2020. scenarios provide the basis for technical analysis A single forecast of energy demand does not to identify transmission network development give a sufficiently rich picture of possible future needs. A credible range of potential developments developments so National Grid now carries and opportunities are identified and assessed to out analysis based on different scenarios that ensure an economic and efficient transmission between them cover a wide range of possible system is maintained. energy futures. As a means to assess and report transmission A significant part of these energy scenarios is system capability it is useful to consider the the future power generation and demand mix. transmission system split by boundaries. The scenarios used to underpin our network Boundaries separate the system across multiple development present significant challenges in parallel transmission routes. The boundary terms of transmission planning, in light of the capability is an expression of the maximum uncertainties surrounding the energy landscape power transfer that can be securely transferred as the UK makes the transition to a low carbon across the transmission routes. A review of the economy in 2020 and onwards. boundary capabilities is provided in this document and for each boundary the
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