i Strategic Latency and World Power: How Technology Is Changing Our Concepts of Security Edited by Zachary Davis, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Michael Nacht, University of California, Berkeley Ronald Lehman, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Published by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Center for Global Security Research, L-189 7000 East Avenue Livermore, CA 94550 Copyright 2014 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The entire contents of this publication are protected by copyright. All rights reserved ISBN: 978-0-9960966-0-7 About the cover: The cover is a frieze painted by Giulio Parigi around 1600, from the Galleria degli Uffizi in Florence, Italy, depicting the legendary use of a system of mirrors designed by Archimedes to focus sunlight intended to burn up Roman ships invading the Greek city-state of Syracuse in 213 B.C. While the military history of Archimedes' directed energy weapon remains in question, the painting illustrates how technological innovation translates into strategic latency. To download the ebook: See cgsr.llnl.gov ii Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is operated by Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration under Contract DE-AC52- 07NA27344. This document was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government. Neither the United States government nor Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC, nor any of their employees makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States government or Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC, and shall not be used for advertising or product endorsement purposes. LLNL-BOOK-652195 iii Acknowledgements The idea for this book came from a meeting of the minds between Ron Lehman and Larry Gershwin, who are the godfathers of strategic latency. They had been thinking on parallel tracks about the accelerating pace of technological progress and its implications for national security. Separately, they had probed government, industry, and academia to assess the technologies with the highest potential to bring revolutionary change. Both had assembled a cadre of experts to track and analyze strategic latency. I attended that initial meeting as one of Ron’s acolytes and was introduced to Larry’s deputy Frank Gac, who became my partner in developing the concepts and applications behind strategic latency. We found our third collaborator in Michael Nacht, who had recently returned to the University of California, Berkeley, after leading the government’s reviews of nuclear and cyber policies in his capacity as assistant secretary of defense. Michael, a highly respected scholar, took our ideas to a whole new level. Although researchers have different names for what we call strategic latency, such as technological surprise, emerging and disruptive technologies, a community of like-minded experts scattered throughout government agencies, think tanks, academia, national laboratories, and the private sector share a belief in the transformative power of emerging technologies—for better and for worse. This group of technical and policy analysts provided the intellectual fuel for the series of workshops that culminated in this book. The members of this diverse group are united in their belief in the need for a concerted national effort to meet the challenges of strategic latency. We hope this book amplifies their message about the need for the U.S. to sustain its global competitiveness in science and technology. Managers at Lawrence Livermore and Los Alamos national laboratories and the National Intelligence Council gave us enough rope to either hang ourselves or successfully lash together a coherent story from a disparate collection of people and ideas. We hope we have achieved the latter. Z program director Nils Carlson at Lawrence Livermore, himself a former Gershwin deputy, consistently encouraged our efforts. Deputy national intelligence officer Rhonda Anderson provided many examples of latent technologies, Brian Shaw from National Intelligence University was ahead of us at every turn, and Tom Tierney at Los Alamos worked hard to keep government agencies up to speed. Steve Black and his deputies at the Department of Energy’s Office of Intelligence do their utmost to support research into latency issues. Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) Director Bruce Goodwin and his deputy Mona Dreicer made it possible to bring the manuscript to completion. Sandra Maldonado kept the trains and planes running on time, Paris Althouse added firepower in the late innings, and CGSR fellows Jonathan Pearl, Bob Smolen, Eileen Vergino, Bob Schock, and Don Prosnitz aided and abetted the latency project, while Bob Joseph and Neil Joeck kept us (more or less) tethered to reality. The journal Orbis took a leap of faith by publishing my initial article on strategic latency in its winter 2012 issue. My students at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey brought their military experience to bear on the prospects for technological change in the ways of modern warfare. Fate smiled on us when Lawrence Livermore science writer Katie Walter agreed to edit the volume. Her discerning eye for language, expansive technical knowledge, patience, and enthusiasm provided the glue that turned a bunch of interesting papers into a coherent book. The central place of uncertainty in this endeavor increases the likelihood that errors and misunderstandings will emerge at some point. Since I am the one who coaxed the authors out on this limb, it is I who must take responsibility for any and all mistakes. — Zachary Davis iv Foreword Strategic latency: What does this mean? That was the question we asked ourselves when Ron Lehman and Zachary Davis requested a meeting with us in November 2009. They promptly explained, “Strategic latency refers to the inherent capacity of science and technology to produce game-changing threats to our national security. .The potential for a technology to cause harm is often ‘latent’ until an adversary uses it for military purposes.” Thus began a multiyear journey working together to further define, explore, and explain what strategic latency means to an intelligence officer, a warfighter, an entrepreneur, a scientist, an economist, and others. This book is a grand endeavor that represents an important milestone along that journey, a journey which is ongoing. Nonetheless, we use this foreword to provide a snapshot. We start by asking the question again: What is strategic latency? By choice, our answer is framed by science and technology because history shows us the combination brings change. With that in mind, our response is: Strategic latency refers to the inherent potential for technologies to bring about significant shifts in the military or economic balance of power. Such potential may remain unexploited or even unrecognized, and thus latent, until a combination of factors coalesce to produce a powerful capability. This list of contributing factors can be extensive but generally three rise to the top: national security, economics, and human welfare. Note that the ultimate result is a shift in power. Thus, one must understand the many manifestations of power to have a thorough appreciation for the role of strategic latency. It is for this reason the book begins with an introduction entitled, “What Is Power?” The authors then embark on an elaboration of strategic latency, including drawing lessons from the history of nuclear proliferation. This introduction is followed by an insightful investigation of current-day technology case studies, with a focus on lasers, cyber, and additive manufacturing. The final chapter of the book is devoted to case studies of various countries, in which the authors engaged experts to provide a thought-provoking sampling across the innovation spectrum, in the form of Turkey, Brazil, Republic of Korea, Russia, Japan, and China. Why is the concept of strategic latency important? Many of us would like to predict the future. Knowledge of the future would enable us to prepare or even avoid some problems. At a national level, such problems might consist of military conflict, a pandemic, or economic disruption. Strategic latency, framed in science and technology, can give us insights and thus options for the future. Those insights can foster innovation, help mitigate vulnerabilities, or catalyze a new application of existing technology. Strategic latency is not the end-all as one attempts to predict disruptive technology and emerging threats. However, it is a valuable tool, and perhaps an overarching philosophy for attacking the problem. The authors are to be commended in taking this first step at capturing this philosophy in book form. —Lawrence K. Gershwin and Frank D. Gac1 1 Lawrence Gershwin is with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and Frank Gac is with Los Alamos National Laboratory. v Table of Contents