DaSTS – Improving Connectivity in the Coventry North / South Corridor
Phase 1 Interim Report - Stage 1
Final Study Report
April 2010
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Warwickshire County Council / Client: Coventry City Council Project: DaSTS Coventry North - South Job No: B1405700 Document Title: Stage 1 Study Report
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ORIGINAL NAME NAME NAME NAME Geoff Smith / Barbara Sim Richard Hibbert Mike Jones Stephen Lucas DATE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE January 2010
Document Status: Draft Report
ORIGINAL NAME NAME NAME NAME Geoff Smith Barbara Sim Richard Hibbert Mike Jones DATE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE February 2010
Document Status: Revised Draft Final Report
ORIGINAL NAME NAME NAME NAME Geoff Smith Barbara Sim Richard Hibbert Mike Jones DATE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE March 2010
Document Status: Final Report
ORIGINAL NAME NAME NAME NAME Geoff Smith Barbara Sim Richard Hibbert Mike Jones DATE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE April 2010
Document Status: Final Report
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010
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DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Economic baseline and Key Travel Patterns
The study area runs North / South between Warwick / Leamington and Hinckley, via Coventry and Nuneaton and Bedworth. The population of 672,800 compares with Glasgow and Sheffield. Almost half live in Coventry, 22% in Warwick, 18.1% in Nuneaton and Bedworth and 15.5% in Hinckley and Bosworth.
The corridor has experienced a significant decline in employment. 4.5% of the working age population claim Job Seekers Allowance (JSA), which compares reasonably with the region (5.2%) and national average (3.9%). However, some wards in north Coventry and Nuneaton and Bedworth have as many as 18% claiming JSA.
In 2008 there were 293,700 employees in the corridor, an increase of 1.4 percentage points (pp) from 2002. However, there is significant variation from an increase of 11pp in Warwick to a decrease of 5.5pp in Coventry. 42.7% of employees work in ‘higher end’ occupations (management, professional and technical work) with the highest proportion in Warwick (50.9%). The other districts have greater numbers in lower value added employment.
A quarter of people work in the distribution, hotels and restaurant sector and a quarter in the public administration, education and health sector. Manufacturing employment is still substantial at 13%, but has decreased by 30% since 2002, while employment in the banking, finance and insurance sector has increased by a similar amount.
In terms of Drivers of Productivity, Warwick out-performs the other districts on most criteria and Nuneaton and Bedworth under-performs on most criteria. Coventry performs well on investment and innovation but less well in terms of enterprise. Hinckley and Bosworth under-performs in terms of enterprise and investment.
Average earnings in Coventry and Warwick are above the national average but earnings are substantially lower elsewhere. There are substantial differences between residence based and workplace based earnings - those working in Coventry earn more than the average Coventry resident, in Nuneaton and Bedworth the position is reversed. This provides an incentive to commute to access better paid work.
80% of residents work in the corridor. The top three destinations of the 62,900 people who leave the corridor for work are Rugby, Birmingham and Leicester. The top three origins of those commuting into the corridor are Stratford-on-Avon, Rugby and Solihull.
Residents of Hinckley, South Leamington, Central Nuneaton and Central Coventry, make between 20% and 30% of work trips on foot or by cycle. Elsewhere walking or cycling use is, between 7% and 18%. The proportions using bus and rail is highest (between 7% and 18%) in the central and northern part of the corridor and much lower in Warwick, Leamington and below 4% in Kenilworth and the rural areas. Both the numbers and percentage using public transport increases closer to Coventry City Centre reaching 13% mode share in the corridors close to Coventry City Centre.
The population in the corridor is expected to increase in the period up to 2030, with the greatest increases in the 65+ age group. The RSS indicates that of 64,700 new dwellings to be built in the period to 2026, 40% will be in Coventry, 22% each in Warwick and Nuneaton and Bedworth and 14% in Hinckley and Bedworth.
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010
Baseline growth from the Cambridge Economics Local Economic Forecasting Model indicated that employment will fall by around 8,000 between 2007 and 2016 but then increase to around 304,900. ‘Moderate’, ‘high’ and ‘very high’ economic growth scenarios depend on take-up of the identified employment sites. The number of jobs in the corridor by 2031 could be as high as 356,500 (an increase of 54,000 from 2007).
Journeys most important to the economy
For journeys to work, the important journey destinations currently are: • Coventry: City Centre and industrial ring outside the ring road; • Bedworth, Leamington and Nuneaton Centres; • Walsgrave Hospital, Warwick University and Westwood Business park, and; • ‘Out of centre’ sites around Coventry particularly to the south and west.
The strategic highway network provides access to the freight trip generators and attractors. The highest flows are on the M6 and also to the west on the A46 and A45. Other notable flows are on the A444 and B4113 (Foleshill Road) between Coventry and Nuneaton. The rail network provides for strategic north-south and east-west freight and there are significant East – West movements between the West Midland and London / SE England on the strategic highway and rail network through the corridor.
Shopping trips are made to the traditional centres of Coventry, Nuneaton, Leamington, and Bedworth and new shopping centres such as at Foleshill. Warwick and Kenilworth Castles attract substantial numbers of visitors and Coventry City Centre also has a number of important visitor attractions.
Travel Conditions Inhibiting Growth
Consultations were undertaken with organisations representing the service, manufacturing, distribution and public sectors. Most stated that transportation and accessibility was a concern / serious concern. However, the corridor is well-served by transport routes and congestion problems relate to the local roads especially arterial roads into Coventry. Poor public transport to out of town sites results in car dependence for commuting, adding to congestion and parking problems.
Key congestion sites identified were predominantly the major intersections with the motorway network and the arterial and main orbital roads around Coventry. In addition to predictable delays, severe and unpredictable congestion occurs when incidents on the motorway cause strategic traffic to be diverted onto the local network. This is a major worry, due to moves towards ‘just in time’ ordering and deadline penalties.
Modelling work confirms this. The 2008 model shows that there are already capacity problems in Nuneaton Centre, in Coventry on the A45 (at the junctions with the radial routes), at the Binley Road / Allard Way junction, at the Coventry Ring Road / London Road junction, at the Walsgrave Road / Sky Blue Way junction and numerous other locations along the radial routes. In 2031 delays at all these junctions will increase, with major problems developing on the A45 / A46, and on Ansty Road close to Walsgrave Hospital. This will significantly increase journey times for both private vehicles and buses, and decrease the accessibility of key destinations.
Inhibiting Factors and Underlying Causes
Key challenges identified regarding tackling the economic issues are:
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010
• Out of town locations of employment - resulting from historic planning decisions, lacking public transport access and change from fixed ‘shift’ times now results in high dependence on car travel • Town / City Centre development – causing congestion on radial routes due to car based commuting, • Limited movement of people from the north to jobs in south of the corridor – due to fragmented north – south highway and public transport network, lack of through rail and bus connectivity and low service levels, congestion and bus network structure (integration) including fare zone impacts. • Highway connectivity, capacity and reliability – due to congestion at key junctions and poor network resilience to cope with the impacts of incidents. • Public Transport services and reliability – including lack of patronage to make frequent services to out of town locations viable, lack of through ticketing, perceived lack of reliability, delays due to congestion on radial links, lack of integration between bus and rail (physical and services/timetables).
Other issues with a bearing on the Governments’ Climate Change agenda are:
• Low levels of public transport use (especially outside Coventry) – due to lack of public transport connectivity, poor information (journey planning and within journey), poor integration between bus and rail and lack of permanence. • Low levels of walking and cycling – due to increasing distances to work and school, increasing access to and use of cars, loss of local services, increasing traffic levels • High levels of car use – due to increasing distances to travel, independence and comfort and, less people car-sharing. • High Carbon emissions from cars – due to high levels of car and LGV use, congestion and move to large vehicles and 4x4s.
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010
CONTENTS
1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Background and Objectives 1 1.2 Study Area and Planning Context 2 1.3 Study Objectives 4 1.4 Stage 1 Study Process 4 1.5 Report Structure 4
2 BASELINE ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT AND TRENDS 5 2.1 Introduction 5 2.2 The labour market 5 2.3 The Business Base 10 2.4 Drivers of productivity 15 2.5 Equality of Opportunity and Quality of life 15 2.6 Forecast Growth 16 2.7 Conclusions 18
3 KEY TRAVEL PATTERNS 21 3.1 Introduction 21 3.2 Census Journey to Work Travel Patterns 21 3.3 Highway Network and Flows 24 3.4 Public Transport Network and Flows 26 3.5 Mode Shares 27 3.6 Conclusions 29
4 JOURNEYS MOST IMPORTANT TO THE ECONOMY 31 4.1 Business Travel 31 4.2 Journeys to Work 34 4.3 Freight Flows 37 4.4 Shopping Trips and Visitor Economy 39 4.5 Conclusions 43
5 TRAVEL CONDITIONS INHIBITING GROWTH 45 5.1 Business Consultations 45 5.2 Existing and Future Forecast Highway Network Issues 51 5.3 Public Transport and Highway Accessibility 63 5.4 Conclusions 66
6 INHIBITING FACTORS AND UNDERLYING CAUSES 67 6.1 Support Economic Growth 67 6.2 Tackling Climate Change 74 6.3 Better Safety, Security and Health 77 6.4 Equality of Opportunity 79 6.5 Quality of Life / healthy natural environment 79 6.6 Conclusions 80 DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010
APPENDIX A DRIVERS OF PRODUCTIVITY 83
APPENDIX B METHODOLOGY FOR EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS 91
APPENDIX C EMPLOYMENT SITES & POTENTIAL CAPACITY 97
APPENDIX D EMPLOYMENT ALLOCATIONS 2016 101
APPENDIX E EMPLOYMENT ALLOCATION 2031 105
APPENDIX F BIBLIOGRAPHY 109
Table 1 Employment sectors and Changes 2002 - 2007 12 Table 2 Spread of change in Data Units by Sector 14 Table 3 Drivers of Productivity Assessment 15 Table 4 Housing Growth (2006 – 2026) 17 Table 5 AM Peak and Interpeak Mode Shares 27 Table 6 Highway Trip Journey Purposes by Time Period 31 Table 7 Bus Passenger Journey Purposes by Time Period 32 Table 8 Coventry – Nuneaton Rail Journey Purposes by Time Period 34 Table 9 Sites identified as major road congestion hotspots 48 Table 10 AM Peak and Inter-peak Mode Shares 2031 62 Table 11 Economic Growth Issues Causes and Factors 67 Table 12 Climate Change Issues, Causes and Factors 75 Table 13 New construction orders 87 Table 14 UK Competitiveness Index 88 Table 15 Business survival rates 88 Table 16 Gross Value Added assumptions 91 Table 17 Indicators and assumptions of the CE LEFM model 92 Table 18 Annual compound growth rates 92 Table 19 Forecasted employment growth (rounded to the nearest hundred) and associated GVA 93 Table 20 Forecast Employment Change 2006 – 2016 94 Table 21 Forecast employment change 2016-2031 94 Table 22 Employment Site Capacity 95 Table 23 Potential employment and GVA in 2016 95 Table 24 Potential employment and GVA in 2031 96
Figure 1 Study Area and Strategic Transport Network 3 Figure 2 2008 Population Breakdown 6 Figure 3 Economic Activity, Employment and Unemployment 7 Figure 4 Proportion of Working Age Population Claiming Job Seekers Allowance 8 Figure 5 Employment by Occupation in 2008 9 Figure 6 Residence and Workplace Based Earnings 10 Figure 7 Location Quotient DaSTS Corridor Versus the West Midlands 12 Figure 8 Rankings of total IMD and Income deprivation 16 Figure 9 Mid – year population estimates for the corridor 17 Figure 10 Major Housing and Employment Development sites. 19 Figure 11 Census 2001 Journey to Work – All Trip Origins 22 Figure 12 Census 2001 Journey to Work % Bus and Rail Trip Origins 23 Figure 13 Census 2001 Journey to Work, % Walk and Cycle Trip Origins 24 Figure 14 AM Peak Highway Network Flows 25 Figure 15 AM Peak Bus Network Level of service and Passenger Flows 26 Figure 16 Hourly Distribution of Coventry City Centre Bus Passenger Flows 27
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010
Figure 17 Screenlines for Mode Share Analysis 28 Figure 18 Screenline Analysis Inter-peak Hour 29 Figure 19 Inter-peak Car-based Business Trips Flows 32 Figure 20 Coventry Station Users Origin Journey Purpose by Time Period 33 Figure 21 Destination Journey Purpose by Time Period 33 Figure 22 Employment Locations 2007 35 Figure 23 Highway AM Peak Trip Destinations 36 Figure 24 Public Transport AM Peak Trip Destinations 36 Figure 25 Distribution of Inter-peak Peak Freight Origins 37 Figure 26 Distribution of Inter-peak Peak Freight Destinations 37 Figure 27 AM Peak Freight Transport Flows 38 Figure 28 Key Shopping and Visitor Attractions 39 Figure 29 Interpeak Public Transport Trip Destinations 40 Figure 30 Distribution of Coventry Public Transport Shopping Trip Origins 41 Figure 31 Distribution of Leamington Public Transport Shopping Trip Origins 41 Figure 32 Distribution of Bedworth Public Transport Shopping Trip Origins 42 Figure 33 Distribution of Nuneaton Public Transport Shopping Trip Origins 42 Figure 34 Summary of Transport Network Issues 49 Figure 35 2008 AM Peak Highway Network Stress Links 51 Figure 36 2008 Highway Network Signalised Junction Delays 53 Figure 37 2031 AM Peak Highway Network Stress Links 54 Figure 38 2031 Inter-peak Highway Network Stress Links 55 Figure 39 2031 Highway Network Signalised Junction Delays 56 Figure 40 Changes in Highway Link Speeds AM peak to 2031 57 Figure 41 Origins and Destinations of M6 Southbound AM Peak 58 Figure 42 Origins and Destinations of A46 Northbound AM Peak 59 Figure 43 Origins and Destinations of Burnaby Road AM Peak 60 Figure 44 Origins and Destinations of Warwick Road AM Peak 61 Figure 45 Screenline Analysis Inter-peak Hour 2031 62 Figure 46 Accessibility – Coventry City Centre; PT and Highway 63 Figure 47 Accessibility – Ryton; PT and Highway 64 Figure 48 Accessibility – Ricoh Arena; PT and Highway 64 Figure 49 PT Accessibility - South Leamington and Walsgrave Hospital 65 Figure 50 Public Transport Network North-South Connectivity Issues 72 Figure 51 Comparison of N. E. Coventry and Stagecoach Bus Networks 73 Figure 52 Air Quality and Accident Issues 78 Figure 53 Qualifications 84 Figure 54 Percentage of WAP who received job related training in the last 4 and in the last 13 weeks 85 Figure 55 VAT registrations and stock 86 Figure 56 Proportion of those in employment who are self employed 86 Figure 57 House completions (builds) per 10,000 population 87 Figure 58 Knowledge Intensive Business 89
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background and Objectives
The Government’s Delivering a Sustainable Transport System (DaSTS) goals for transport have been developed in response to the Stern and Eddington reports on Transport and the Economy, and on the Environmental Impact of Climate Change. The five DaSTS goals set by the Department for Transport (DfT) are:
• Support Economic Competitiveness and Growth by delivering reliable and efficient Transport Networks. • Reduce transport emissions to Tackle Climate Change. • Improve Safety, Security and Health by reducing the risk of death injury or illness arising from Transport and promoting modes that are beneficial to health. • Promote greater Equality of Opportunity for all citizens. • Improve Quality of Life and promote a healthy natural Environment.
The DfT has already provided transport scheme funding commitments for the 5 year period ending in 2014 (which also aligns with Network Rail’s Control Period 4). The Department now wants to develop plans for the next funding period (between 2014 and 2019) and for the longer term (the 30 years up to 2039 - 2040). The DfT is committed to delivering the Stern and Eddington recommendations and is therefore funding a series of DaSTS studies to determine how sustainability objectives can be delivered in the various English Regions.
The West Midlands Leaders Board, Advantage West Midlands and other local authorities and agencies in the West Midlands have determined the Local / Regional priorities for delivering the DaSTS objectives. These include a study of Connectivity in the Coventry North/South Corridor.
This corridor was chosen to support economic growth and tackle climate change, specifically;
• Supporting the region’s economy and reducing the GVA gap is a key priority for the region. Congestion on the Warwick – Leamington Spa – Kenilworth – Coventry – Nuneaton corridor is a concern, imposing high costs on business. Transport interventions can however support the economy by improving the ability of all the networks (both public transport and road) to cater for business and commuting trips, providing additional capacity where necessary, and by meeting the needs of the freight industry.
• Improving the reliability of journey times by road caused by congestion and non- recurrent delays is an important element and will also contribute to reducing CO2 emissions. These challenges are regionally significant in the north-south corridor linking Nuneaton, Coventry, Kenilworth and Leamington Spa.
• It is important to take into account plans for significant housing growth and the delivery of new employment land as a result of the RSS revision process, and the provision of effective travel choices is crucial in catering for this growth.
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In addition to the five DasTS goals, specific objectives for the Coventry North/South Corridor are:
• improving transport connectivity to improve access to jobs and labour markets. • reducing traffic congestion, in particular to reduce business costs. • improving the quality and performance of public transport to improve quality of life and encourage use of lower emission modes. • enabling employment and housing growth sustainably.
The study brief emphasises that proposals put forward need to be affordable in the climate of comparative austerity that is expected to obtain for the next few years and to affect the availability of funding for transport schemes. However, it is imperative that the recommended transport strategy and plan are adequate to assist in the delivery of the Growth Agenda for the corridor.
1.2 Study Area and Planning Context
Figure 1 shows the study area which extends from Hinckley and Earl Shilton in the North to Leamington Spa and Warwick in the south and encompasses Nuneaton, Bedworth, Coventry City and Kenilworth.
Warwick, Leamington and Kenilworth are located within Warwick District in Warwickshire, Coventry is a unitary authority within the West Midlands conurbation, Bedworth and Nuneaton are the principal settlements in Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough Council in Warwickshire and Hinckley, Barwell and Earl Shilton are in Hinckley and Bosworth Council within Leicestershire. It should be noted that the study area crosses the border between the West Midlands region (including Coventry and Warwickshire) and the East Midlands region (including Leicestershire).
Responsibility for transport is held differently through the study area. In Coventry the City Council is responsible for all transport except public transport which is the responsibility of Centro – the West Midlands Integrated Transport Authority (ITA). In Warwickshire and in Leicestershire the County Councils are responsible for strategic highways and public transport and the district councils are responsible for local planning and car parking. The Highways Agency is responsible for the national road network throughout the study area including the M6, M40, M69, and A45/A46 and A5. Network Rail is responsible for the rail network, with services provided by a variety of passenger and freight operating companies.
The study needs to take account of planned growth in the Corridor. The plans for development within each district between 2006 and 2026 are at different stages of development:
• Coventry City – Local Development Framework (LDF) Core Strategy published for consultation. • Warwick District – LDF Core Strategy under development – preferred options published for consultation. • Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough – LDF Core Strategy – issues and options published for consultation. • Hinckley and Bosworth Borough – LDF Core Strategy published.
As a result, whereas the location of development is relatively clear for the period to 2026 in most of the corridor, it is not known for Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough. In addition, the scale and location of development between 2026 and 2040 is not known.
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Figure 1 Study Area and Strategic Transport Network
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 3 of 109
1.3 Study Objectives
Following DfT guidance, the DaST Study is required to follow a 4-stage process:
• Stage 1: Review of evidence and understanding of challenges; • Stage 2: Identification of interventions; • Stage 3: Option sifting and packaging, and; • Stage 4: Option and package appraisal and recommendations.
This report presents the results of Stage 1 of the study. This element of the study involves addressing four key questions:
• What are the key patterns of travel in the corridor; • Which journeys are most important to the economy; • How may travel conditions inhibit economic activity, and; • What are the most inhibiting factors and what are their underlying causes?
The outputs of Stage 1 will inform Stage 2 of the study, enabling the focusing of interventions on the key study objectives and issues in the study corridor.
1.4 Stage 1 Study Process
The Stage 1 study was undertaken through;
• Establishing the base economic conditions in the corridor including levels of deprivation and the baseline GVA1; • Establishing the underlying economic trends; • Examining the future growth agenda in terms of housing and employment locations; • Examining the base and future public transport and highway issues through use of the Coventry Transport Models; • A series of business interviews to understand important journeys and perceived problems, which were then cross-validated with the forecasts from the transport models, and; • An Interactive Planning Session held with the Core Steering Group to review the evidence and develop a common understanding of the inhibiting factors and underlying causes.
1.5 Report Structure
Following this introduction, Section 2 presents the baseline socio – economic context for the Study Area. Section 3 presents an analysis of information on the travel patterns informed by the transport models, Section 4 and 5 consider the journeys most important to the economic and travel conditions inhibiting economic growth informed by the models and business interviews. Section 6 draws the conclusions regarding the factors and causes inhibiting growth.
1 Gross Value Added – a measure of economic productivity required to be assessed through the study. DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 4 of 109
2 BASELINE ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT AND TRENDS
2.1 Introduction
This section sets out the relevant socio-economic context for the proposed delivery of a sustainable transport system (DaSTS) across the four districts of Coventry, Nuneaton and Bedworth, Warwick and Hinckley and Bosworth. These districts have been chosen as a proxy of the Coventry North-South corridor for which data on socio-economic characteristics is readily available. The key economic indicators that are looked at in detail include: population trends; the change in the sectoral composition of the workforce; elements associated with labour supply; enterprise levels; and the degree of deprivation in the immediate area as well as the commuting patterns of the work force from this area.
It is important to understand these characteristics so that we are able to fully assess the future transport needs of the area, and the benefits of potential transport interventions. In the main data is analysed at the level of the four districts in aggregate, referred to as the corridor, drawing out the specific characteristics of the individual districts as appropriate. The corridor is benchmarked against the West Midlands, as three of the four districts are located within that region, and against England as a whole.
2.2 The labour market
2.2.1 Population
The total population in the corridor in 2008 was 672,800. Whilst Coventry is the 13th largest City in the UK the corridor as a whole compares with Glasgow and Sheffield – the 4th and 5th largest Cities in the UK. This corridor is therefore an important contributor to the economy of the UK.
Almost half of the population (46%) reside in the district of Coventry, 20.2% in Warwick, 18.1% in Nuneaton and Bedworth and the remaining 15.6% in Hinckley and Bosworth. Since 2002 the area overall has witnessed an increase in its total population of 3.4%, a ratio of increase that is above that of the West Midlands and England as a whole. This increase is driven mainly by the high population increases witnessed in the districts of Warwick and Hinckley and Bosworth, 6.6% and 4.6% respectively. The proportion of the population who are of working age in the corridor stood at 62.8%, marginally above that of the region and England as a whole.
Further breakdown of the population in the corridor by age shows that there is a significant proportion of the population within the 20-39 age range (29%) as well as a quarter of the population being under the age of 20. This suggests that there may be possible expansion of the workforce in future years and plenty of labour supply available to fill vacant positions that arise through natural wastage as people retire. However this population increase also has implications for future travel demand in the area, potentially increasing congestion as well as generating increased demand for residential, employment and leisure facilities within the corridor.
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Figure 2 2008 Population Breakdown
30% The Corridor West Midlands 25% England
20%
15%
10%
Percentage of total population total of Percentage 5%
0% 0-19 20-39 39-59 60+ Age
2.2.2 Economic activity, employment and unemployment
Figure 3 shows the recent changes in economic activity, employment and unemployment in the corridor, benchmarked against the West Midlands region and in England as a whole. The economic activity rate2 in the corridor stood at 79% in March 2009, which remains above both comparator areas despite falling from a peak of 82% in 2006/07. This is due to the economic activity levels in Coventry and Warwick being particularly high at 80.3% and 81.2% respectively.
Starting from a high base of over 75.6% in 2002, the corridor has experienced a significant decline in employment in comparison to the wider West Midlands and England as a whole. The employment rate3 now stands at 71.4% according to the latest data. At the same time the unemployment rate in the corridor has been gradually increasing, reaching 6.4% in March 2009, equating to an increase of 1.3 percentage points (pp) since 2002, compared with 2.1pp in the West Midlands and 1.7pp nationally. The comparatively small increase in unemployment is due to the fact that the unemployment rate in Warwick actually decreased by over 4pp over this period masking the above average increase witnessed by the other three districts which together form the corridor.
Not surprisingly, since 2002 the number of benefits claimants has also risen and in February 2009 stood marginally higher than the national average of 15.2% at 15.4%. However, more positively the percentage of the population claiming benefits in the corridor remains below that of the wider West Midlands region (17.7%).
2 The economic activity rate is the percentage of the working age population (16-60/64) that is either in employment or actively seeking work 3 The employment rate is the percentage of the working age population (16-60/64) that is in employment DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 6 of 109
Similarly, the proportion of the Working Age Population (WAP) claiming Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) in the corridor is below that of the wider region at 4.5% compared with 5.2%. However, it must be noted that there are Lower Level Super Output Areas (LLSOAs) within the study area, mainly in the Coventry and Nuneaton urban areas, where the proportion of the working age population claiming benefits is as high as 18%, compared with a national average of 3.9%.
Figure 3 Economic Activity, Employment and Unemployment
81
80 The Corridor 79 West 78 Midlands
active England 77
76
75 Mar 2002- Mar 2003- Apr 2005- Apr 2006- Apr 2007- Apr 2008- Percentage of that WAP economically are Feb 2003 Feb 2004 Mar 2006 Mar 2007 Mar 2008 Mar 2009
76 The 75 Corridor
74 West Midlands 73
72 England 71
employment in of WAP Percentage 70 Mar 2002- Mar 2003- Apr 2004- Apr 2005- Apr 2006- Apr 2007- Apr 2008- Feb 2003 Feb 2004 Mar 2005 Mar 2006 Mar 2007 Mar 2008 Mar 2009
8
The Corridor 7
West 6 Midlands
5 England
4 Mar 2002- Mar 2003- Apr 2004- Apr 2005- Apr 2006- Apr 2007- Apr 2008- Feb 2003 Feb 2004 Mar 2005 Mar 2006 Mar 2007 Mar 2008 Mar 2009 Percentage of that WAP unemployed are
Source: Labour Force Survey/Annual Population Survey
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Figure 4 shows that across the four districts the percentage of the population claiming Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) varies quite significantly from only 9.8% in Warwick to 18.4% in Coventry. However the district witnessing the greatest rise (3.2pp) in benefits claimants since 2002 is Nuneaton and Bedworth. In regard to worklessness through ill health, the percentage of the Working Age Population claiming severe disability allowance and incapacity benefits in the corridor has exhibited a strong downward trend since 2002.
Figure 4 Proportion of Working Age Population Claiming Job Seekers Allowance
Source: Produced by SQW, 2009. © Ordnance Survey. Crown Copyright. License number 100019086, Digital Map Data © Collins Bartholemew Ltd (2007), DWP JSA claimants May 2009, ONS Mid year population estimates 2008. Over this period the gap between regional and national comparators has widened, with less than 6% of its WAP claiming this form of benefit in February 2009.
Figure 4 clearly shows that there are spatial concentrations of unemployment in particular parts of the corridor. These concentrations are particularly clustered around North and East Coventry, Nuneaton and Bedworth, with outliers in a number of other locations such as in the vicinities of:
• Willenhall (southeast of Coventry) • Potters Green (northeast of Coventry) • Eastern Green/Tile Wood (west of Coventry) • Camp Hill (nr Nuneaton)
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2.2.3 Employment by occupation
In 2008, there were 293,700 employees in the corridor, a relatively small increase of since 2002 of just 1.4pp. The overall employment figure is depressed by the 5.5pp decline in employees in Coventry - the largest district in the corridor in employment terms. Each of the other three districts saw increases in the number of employees over this period, the largest increase being in Warwick, where the number of employees grew by 11.2% (7,700 employees). The proportion of employed residents in the corridor who were in higher end occupations4 was 42.7%, greater than the proportion in the West Midlands (39.9%) and marginally lower than the national average of 43.8%.
Figure 5 Employment by Occupation in 2008
100 Process plant and 12.9 13.7 machine operatives & 90 18.8 18.2 23.6 18.7 20.9 elementary occupations 80 13.5 22.4 16.6 15.7 70 16.4 15.8 Personal service, sales 16.1 and customer service 22.8 60 occupations 19.5 21.6 21.9 50 20.2 25.3 23.0 Administrative, 40 secretarial, skilled trades and personal service 30 occupations 50.9
Percentage of employees Percentage 44.3 42.7 43.8 20 39.6 38.7 39.9 Managers, senior officials, professional & 10 technical occupations 0 Coventry Nuneaton Warw ick Hinckley & The West England & Bosw orth Corridor Midlands Bedw orth
Source: Annual Population Survey
Encouragingly, the proportion of the corridors workforce employed in higher end occupations has increased by 5.3pp since 2003, in contrast to the 0.1pp fall experienced at the regional level. In addition, the proportion employed in lower end5 occupations is smaller than the regional proportion. However, it must be noted that these positive trends are fuelled by the proportions employed in higher end and lower end occupations in Warwick, which mask the higher proportion of lower value added employment present in Coventry and in Nuneaton and Bedworth.
However, it should be recognised that this data is residence based and, therefore, a significant proportion of residents employed in higher end occupations may in fact be working outside the corridor rather than depending on the high end employment opportunities that exist within the corridors boundaries.
2.2.4 Earnings
The level of earnings in a location gives an indication of the wealth of an area’s workforce and also the degree to which highly skilled, value added jobs are being undertaken.
4 Managers and senior officials, professional occupations, and associate professional and technical occupations. 5 Process, plant and machine operatives and elementary occupations. DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 9 of 109
Disparities between levels of workplace-based and residence-based earnings in adjacent districts may generate incentives for greater levels of commuting behaviour between those adjacent districts than may otherwise be the case.
The average residence and workplace based earnings of all of the districts within the corridor fall below the national average with the exception of Warwick, where both residence and workplace based earnings are significantly higher at £27,200 and £26,300 respectively.
Coventry is the only one of the four districts within the corridor whose workplace based earnings exceed both the national average and the residence based figure for the district. This implies that those working in Coventry, especially those in higher value occupations with higher earnings potential, have a greater tendency to reside outside the local authority area and commute in to take advantage of earnings differentials.
In Nuneaton and Bedworth this scenario is reversed in that residence based earnings exceed workplace based earnings by almost £3,000, indicating that this district is very much an out commuter district. The data shows that the gap between residence based and workplace based earnings has in fact increased in both Coventry and Nuneaton and Bedworth but decreased in both Warwick and Hinckley and Bosworth.
Figure 6 Residence and Workplace Based Earnings
30,000
Coventry
Nuneaton and 25,000 Bedw orth Warw ick
Hinckley and Bosw orth 20,000 West Midlands Gross annual earningsGross (£) England
15,000 Residence based Workplace based
Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings Since 2002, Nuneaton and Bedworth has experienced a substantial rise in both workplace-based (30.3%) and residence-based (27.6%) earnings to a degree, far greater than the other districts, the wider region and England as a whole, which increased by 23% and 24% respectively. Likewise, Warwick has also seen a significant increase in workplace based earnings of 28.6%, whilst the increase in both residence- based and workplace based earnings in Coventry were considerably below comparators at 19.4% and 19.6% respectively.
2.3 The Business Base
In 2008, the corridor was home to 25,100 data units (business establishments). An appreciation of the size, composition, functionality and vitality of these local businesses is important in understanding the logistical implications for the corridor.
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2.3.1 Structure of the business base
The Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) survey provides detail on the size and composition of the business base of an area through its allocation of employment by geography across a range of industrial classifications and business units. However the data does have limitations on how it can be used to provide an accurate account of the types of businesses located in a particular area. Firstly, the most recent data available through the ABI is 20076, therefore it is unable to provide an insight on the impact of the credit crunch and current recession on the business base of a given area. Second, the data is collected by business type rather than business function, and therefore is unable to provide much insight into the activities and subsequent value a business may be providing to a particular area or industry.
That aside, analysis of the ABI data (see Figure 7) shows that the distribution, hotels and restaurants sector remains the largest employer in the corridor with over 71,300 employees (24.3%), despite a slight contraction of the sector since 2002. This is closely followed by the public administration, education and health sector, which has actually experienced a slight growth in employee numbers since 2002 (owing to the large increase - in both absolute and relative terms - in government spending in the UK since 2000, and now accounts for 24.2% of employment. This growth in public sector employment is concerning in that it has the potential to inhibit and area’s productivity growth because of the large volume of low value added employment within the sector. It is also concerning due to the impending squeeze on public sector employment in an attempt to rectify the current parlous state of UK public finances.
The sectors which have undergone the greatest shifts in employment over this period are the manufacturing sector (which experienced a reduction of 30.3% in employees but nevertheless still employs almost 38,000 people) and the banking, finance and insurance sector. The finance sector experienced growth of a similar amount over the same period (32.1%) and now employs over 67,100 people. The most significant shift however has been the 71% increase in employment in the energy and water sector – over a quarter of whom are employed by Eon, one of the UK’s leading energy suppliers whose Head Quarters is located in Coventry7. As illustrated on the location quotient below this sector is now considerably over represented compared to the sector in the wider region (positioned right of the y-axis).
A finer grain analysis of the sub-segments of the broad industrial sectors provides an insight into the types and indeed the value of the sectoral activities being undertaken. A more detailed composition of some of the most important sectors of the corridors economy is provided in Table 1
6 ABI data for 2008 became available on 16th December 2009, too late for inclusion in this report. 7 It is also worth noting that Seven Trent are currently developing a new HQ building also in Coventry that is expected to accommodate 1,800 jobs upon completion. DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 11 of 109
Figure 7 Location Quotient DaSTS Corridor Versus the West Midlands
0.8 Banking, finance Public 0.6 and insurance Energy and water administration,edu
cation & health 0.4 Construction 0.2 Transport and Other services communications 0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Agriculture and fishing -0.2 Distribution, hotels and restaurants -0.4 Manufacturing 2002-2007 employment in change % -0.6 The Corridor vs West Midlands 2007
Source: Annual Business Inquiry
Table 1 Employment sectors and Changes 2002 - 2007 Employee Change in numbers employee numbers rounded 2007 (2002-2007) Manufacturing Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi- 8,800 -43% trailers Manufacture of machinery and equipment not 5,200 -25% elsewhere classified Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except 5,200 -11% machinery and equipment Manufacture of medical, precision and optical 2,800 58% instruments, watches and clocks Manufacture of furniture; manufacturing not 2,400 -17% elsewhere classified Manufacture of transport equipment 2,100 -30% Manufacturing of food and beverages 2,100 39% Publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded 1,600 -20% media Manufacture of rubber and plastic products 1,500 -28% Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products 900 -14% Manufacture basic metals 900 -33% Manufacture of wearing apparel; dressing and 800 -38% dyeing of fur Manufacture of textiles 700 -62% Manufacture of wood and products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of 700 19% straw and plaiting materials Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus 700 -57% not elsewhere classified Manufacture of pulp, paper and paper products 600 62% Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products 500 -60% Manufacture of radio, television and communication 200 -93%
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equipment and apparatus Manufacture of office machinery and computers 100 -15% Distribution Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles; repair of personal and household 30,000 0% goods Hotels and restaurants 17,400 1% Wholesale trade and commission trade, except of 16,000 -3% motor vehicles and motorcycles Sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles and 7,800 -31% motorcycles; retail sale of automotive fuel Transport & Communication Post and telecommunications 7,900 25% Supporting and auxiliary transport activities; activities 4,900 24% of travel agencies Land transport; transport via pipelines 4,200 -3% Air transport 200 -25% Business Services Other business activities 43,400 37% Computer and related activities 8,900 73% Financial intermediation, except insurance and 5,800 -9% pension funding Real estate activities 3,800 18% Renting of machinery and equipment without 2,200 50% operator and or personal and household goods Activities auxiliary to financial intermediation 1,300 20% Insurance and pension funding, except compulsory 1000 -28% social security Research and development 800 34% Source: Annual Business Inquiry
Of particular interest within these sub-segments, are the relative expansions and shrinkages. Within the manufacturing sector the most significant increases have occurred in the sub-segments of manufacture of medical, precision and optical instruments, watches and clocks and the manufacture of food and beverages, both of which are considered to be priority clusters for the West Midlands under the West Midlands Cluster Action Plan 2008-2011. However, most of the other sub-sectors of manufacturing have witnessed a decline in their activity since 2002, a trend that has affected manufacturing on a national scale due to long term pressures from low cost overseas locations coupled with the current recession.
In the distribution sector, the two largest sub-sectors have remained stable over this period. However, there has been a fall in that related to the automotive sector- a sector that has been struggling nationally for a number of years and which undoubtedly will have been further affected by the current recession. This is despite the government’s scrappage scheme, which may have helped to ease the negative impact on the industry in the short term.
The majority of the transport and communications, and business service sectors have experienced growth since 2002, as the wider UK economy more widely has become more service focused. Not surprisingly the computer and related activities sub-sector has seen the largest increase (73%) as UK businesses and households become more technologically literate and demand more complex services.
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Whilst financial sub-sectors to date have only experienced marginal reductions in employee numbers, perhaps related to technical advances and the ability to perform many financial tasks individually online, it is likely that future data will reflect a significant contraction of employees in this sector following the government bail out of the banks and subsequent mass redundancies.
2.3.2 Data units by sector
In 2007, there were approximately 25,100 data units8, equating to an increase of 13.6% since 2002, enhanced by the 19.8% increase in data units witnessed in Warwick. This overall increase is greater than the level of growth achieved regionally and nationally at 10.8% and 9.8% respectively.
In addition to the growth in data units there have also been some shifts in the sectoral composition of the corridors’ business base. The banking finance and insurance sector has enjoyed an increase of some 2,400 (38.6%) data units since 2002. As a result the sector now accounts for over a third of all of the data units within the corridor. In contrast the manufacturing sector has seen a fall of 11.9% in the number of data units, reducing the sectors proportion of data units to only 8.1% of the total in the corridor. This is not surprising given the economic climate and the ongoing contraction of the manufacturing sector.
Overall, the spread of data units across sectors is broadly in line with that of comparator areas as shown in Table 2, any proportions significantly greater or less that other comparator areas have been highlighted in bold.
Table 2 Spread of change in Data Units by Sector
Nuneaton & Hinckley West Coventry Bedworth Warwick Bosworth Corridor Mids England Agriculture 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% and fishing Energy and 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% water Manufacturing 8.4% 9.0% 5.8% 10.6% 8.1% 8.9% 6.8% Construction 8.5% 10.3% 6.8% 12.0% 8.9% 9.9% 9.7% Distribution, 29.8% 29.6% 24.7% 26.6% 27.7% 28.9 27.1% hotels and % restaurants Transport and 4.3% 7.4% 3.1% 6.1% 4.7% 4.7% 4.3% communicatio ns Banking, 32.2% 27.0% 42.6% 30.7% 34.3% 30.8 34.3% finance and % insurance Public 9.7% 10.0% 7.8% 6.3% 8.6% 9.0% 9.0% administration , education & health Other services 6.9% 6.6% 8.4% 7.2% 7.4% 7.4% 8.3% Source: Annual Business Inquiry
8 Data units can be used as a proxy for the number of business establishments in a given area. A data unit refers to the physical presence of a business therefore if the business is a chain or has more than one outlet in a given location it will be counted more than once. DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 14 of 109
2.4 Drivers of productivity
The extent to which the local economy is productive, and concentrating on domestic growth, is very important in terms of economic stability. In addition the extent to which the economy is reliant on external resources is also important. The Government measures to what extent an economy is productive through five specific drivers and the respective indicators within them;
• Skills – based on the proportions of the population without qualifications and with NVQ4+ level qualifications; • Enterprise – based on VAT Registrations and stock and the proportion of the population who are self employed; • Investment – in terms of new construction orders and house completions; • Competition – using the UK competitiveness Index and Business Survival Rates, and; • Innovation – in terms of the proportion of knowledge intensive businesses.
The assessment of the five drivers of productivity is provided in Appendix A and summarised in Table 3 in terms of conclusions regarding the areas of the corridor.
Table 3 Drivers of Productivity Assessment
Driver Warwick Coventry Nuneaton & Hinckley & Overall Bedworth Bosworth Skills Ï Î Ð Î Increasing and above WM av. Enterprise Ï Ð Ð Ð Below WM av Investment Ï Ï Ð Ð Above WM av. Competition Ï Î Ð Î Above WM av. Innovation Î Ï Ï Î Above WM av.
2.5 Equality of Opportunity and Quality of life
Equality of opportunity and quality of life are key Dasts objectives and are becoming increasingly important. In this assessment we have used the Government’s Index of Multiple Deprivation as a spatial indicator for both equality and quality of life. Although it is not a comprehensive indicator, the IMD contains seven domains covering factors such as: health, crime, living environment, skills, disability, employment and income, and its main advantage for the purpose of this study is that scores are generated at a fine grain, at the spatial level of the Lower Level Super Output Areas (LLSOAs) across England.
The corridor contains 455 of England’s 32,482 LLSOAs, 8.6% (39) of which are ranked within the 10% most deprived in England - illustrated in red in Figure 8. The areas highlighted correspond with the areas of high JSA claims in Figure 4.
The ranking of LLSOAs across the corridor for income deprivation is very similar. For this index, 7.5% (34) of the corridor’s LLSOA fall into the 10% most deprived in England. The remaining deciles are also very similar, in general confirming the message presented throughout this baseline section that there is a substantial contrast in economic activity and prosperity between the northern and southern sections of the corridor that ultimately result in a number of inequalities such as social exclusion as well as pressure on the transport system as commuters travel between the north and the south to take advantage of employment opportunities within the larger urban areas located in the north. DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 15 of 109
Perhaps not unexpectedly, there is a similar spatial pattern for deprivation in the corridor mapped in Figure 8 as was the case for unemployment as shown in Figure 4. This is because levels of inequality and poor quality of life are highly correlated with levels of income which is in turn correlated with employment.
Figure 8 Rankings of total IMD and Income deprivation
Total IMD Income deprivation
Source: Produced by SQW, 2009. © Ordnance Survey. Crown Copyright. License number 100019086, Digital Map Data © Collins Bartholemew Ltd (2007), Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007, Neighbourhood Statistics.
2.6 Forecast Growth
Future travel patterns will be influenced by the amount and location of population (housing) growth, employment growth and growth in other trip attractors including shopping, education and healthcare services.
2.6.1 Population / Housing and Employment Growth
Figure 9 presents the ONS forecast increase in population by age bracket in the corridor until 2031 based on 2006 population figures. There will be a significant increase in the 65+ age group and moderate increases in the 0 to 14 and 15 to 29 age groups.
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Figure 9 Mid – year population estimates for the corridor
190 0-14 180 170 15-29 160 000s) 150 140 30-44 130
Population ( 120 45-64 110 100 65+ 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Source: Office for National Statistics
In addition to the background population growth there are other pressures on housing and employment development in the corridor coming from other factors – such as:
• The declining household size from around 2.3 persons per household to 2.1 persons per household in 20 years. • Immigration – significant in the recent past. • Growth Agenda for the corridor.
The West Midlands Regional Spatial Strategy (WMRSS) identifies that development of a strategic scale will be focused on four major urban areas, including Coventry, to maximise their contribution to the region’s economy and to meeting housing needs through new development, regeneration and maximising the beneficial use of existing developed land and buildings.
In other parts of the region major new development will be focussed in and adjacent to towns which are most capable of balanced and sustainable growth to complement the role of the MUA’s. Nine areas have been designated including (within this study area), Nuneaton / Bedworth and Warwick / Leamington.
The forecast growth in housing by district in the study area is shown in Table 5, assuming an average household size of 2.1 suggests a 20% increase in population to 2026. The West Midlands RSS identifies that around 3,500 dwellings in Coventry will be in Nuneaton & Bedworth adjacent to the City boundary to the north near Keresley, also around 3,500 Dwellings in Coventry are to be within Warwick District adjacent to the City boundary to the south in the vicinity of Gibbet Hill / Finham. This redistribution is shown in Table 4.
Table 4 Housing Growth (2006 – 2026)
District Additional Housing Redistributed Development Housing Allocation Hinckley and Bosworth 9,200 9,200 Nuneaton and Bedworth 11,000 14,500 Coventry City 33,500 26,500 Warwick District 11,000 14,500 Total 64,700 64,700
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The East Midlands RSS is at the review stage, Hinckley is identified as a site for specific development within the overall allocation of an additional 74,000 dwellings in Leicestershire. The Earl Shilton Masterplan identifies that RSS8 recommends an average of 460 homes per annum to be built in Hinckley and Bosworth in the period to 2026 and recommends most of the development as Sustainable Urban Extensions of Barwell and Earl Shilton.
Figure 10 shows the locations of the housing growth areas with general search areas identified within Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough where the Local Development Framework is less advanced. This shows the proposed extensions to the urban areas of Coventry, Bedworth, Nuneaton, Barwell, Earl Shilton, Kenilworth, Warwick and Leamington.
Appendix B presents the methodology employed for the assessment of employment growth. Figure 10 shows the locations of key employment sites. There will be significant growth in Central Coventry and other key centres in the study area as well and some areas on the outskirts of Coventry, South of Warwick / Leamington and North / West of Nuneaton and Hinckley. Transformation of Coventry City Centre is a key part of the economic strategy – the City Centre is planned to accommodate half of all additional employment (office based) – with the majority of that at Friargate between the City Centre and Coventry Station. A further quarter of Coventry’s employment growth will be located in the vicinity of the Universities (Warwick and Coventry).
There are three other notable locations for significant employment growth, Ansty Business Park – AWM’s highest priority in the West Midlands, a major investment site planned in Nuneaton and Bedworth borough (likely to be located at Bermuda or north of the M6) and South Leamington.
The additional housing and employment growth within the North South corridor is intended to be as sustainable as possible, for example in providing local education and shopping options to limit longer distance travel that tends to be undertaken by car. However, there will be an increase in travel between the existing and additional housing areas and the existing and additional employment areas. In addition, the new employment areas are likely to generate additional freight transport requirements.
2.7 Conclusions
The corridor has experienced significant decline in employment. 4.5% of the working age population claim Job Seekers Allowance (JSA), higher than the national average (3.9%). Some wards in north Coventry and Nuneaton and Bedworth have as many as 18% claiming JSA. Unemployment correlates with the Index of Multiple Deprivation.
The north of the corridor (in comparison with the south) has; • low levels of qualifications, • low levels of knowledge intensive businesses, • lower levels of business start-ups and • higher levels of manufacturing and distribution – which depend on movement of freight by road.
A key challenge is spreading the wealth of the south of the corridor to the north.
There is significant planned growth in the corridor, especially in Coventry and just beyond the City’s boundaries.
A key challenge will be securing the economic growth whilst retaining sustainable travel behaviour.
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Figure 10 Major Housing and Employment Development sites.
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Three key questions were posed;
1. How will the DaSTS corridor “earn its living”?
The importance of office based activity has been identified. This will be knowledge intensive and will be located in Coventry City Centre, Warwick and Coventry Universities and a number of out of town locations – notably, Ansty Business Park.
Also, the importance of logistics and distribution and manufacturing activities has been identified, particularly in Coventry and the North of the corridor. The importance of transport network efficiency has been noted
2. How can the corridor participate more fully in the Knowledge economy? … and to what extent might transport be a constraint?
Clearly access to jobs and training throughout the corridor but particularly to Warwick University and Coventry University and their related science parks is important, also to higher knowledge intensive businesses in the south of the corridor and at Hospitals (eg Walsgrave).
3. How can we effectively link areas of need with locations offering opportunity?
The analysis has demonstrated areas of need in Coventry (especially the North and East) and Nuneaton and Bedworth. Areas of opportunity have been in Coventry (City Centre) and Warwick district.
Transport can contribute to the aims of the economic and social strategy through providing connectivity between the labour market and jobs, providing access to training and providing for the efficient movement of goods.
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3 KEY TRAVEL PATTERNS
3.1 Introduction
This section presents an analysis of the key travel patterns in the corridor to understand the current transport issues. The analysis was undertaken through assessment of the following available information sources;
• Census Journey to Work data, • Analysis of the available transport models in terms of; Highway network and flows; Public transport network and passenger flows; Existing mode shares through the corridor, and; • Forecast growth in the corridor which will lead to changes in the patterns and volumes of transport.
3.2 Census Journey to Work Travel Patterns
3.2.1 Commuting
In terms of local travel patterns, travel to work data showing the commuting flows of individuals were collected in the last Census in 2001. At a functional level such as a local authority, travel to work patterns should remain relatively stable unless there is a change to a major influencing factor such as the closure or opening of a major employer in the nearby area, large volumes of house building or major new transport infrastructure. Any combination of these factors is possible over a prolonged period, therefore this data must be used indicatively.
Overall the corridor had self containment of 78.7%. That is almost 80% of all employed residents who live in the corridor also work within the corridor boundaries. In 2001, the numbers of people travelling out of the corridor for work was roughly balanced by the numbers travelling into the corridor to work.
Of the 62,900 people who left the corridor for work the top three destinations were: Rugby (3%), Birmingham (2.8%) and Leicester (2.6%). The top three origins of those travelling into the corridor for work were: Stratford-on-Avon (3%), Rugby (2.8%) and Solihull (1.9%).
Figure 11 shows the Census 2001 Journey to Work origins for all trips in the corridor highlighting the importance of Coventry City, the corridor north to Bedworth, Nuneaton and Hinckley and South Leamington with the rural area between Coventry and Leamington generating less commuter traffic.
Figure 12 shows the mode shares for bus and rail travel to work – highlighting the importance of Coventry City and the corridor to the north. Figure 13 shows the mode share of walk and cycle trips highlighting Coventry City Centre, Nuneaton Centre Hinckley and South Leamington having the highest proportions of sustainable trips.
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Figure 11 Census 2001 Journey to Work – All Trip Origins
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Figure 12 Census 2001 Journey to Work % Bus and Rail Trip Origins
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Figure 13 Census 2001 Journey to Work, % Walk and Cycle Trip Origins
3.3 Highway Network and Flows
Figure 1 showed the strategic transport network in the study area. Important routes are the mainly East – West routes of the M6, A45, A5, M40 and West Coast rail line with the A444 and A46 and providing the main north-south routes.
In terms of Connectivity within the study area there is a lack of through connection between the A444 and A46 for north-south movements in the centre of the corridor and a lack of a strategic highway connection for north-south movements to the West of Coventry.
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Figure 14 shows the AM peak traffic volumes on the highway network in the Coventry Transport Model in 20319. This shows the highest traffic volumes on the strategic road network including significant through traffic levels on the M6. There are significant flows on the radial routes into Coventry and through Nuneaton.
Figure 14 AM Peak Highway Network Flows
The traffic model extends as far south as Kenilworth and north as far as Nuneaton. It does not cover Warwick / Leamington nor Hinckley / Earl Shilton. Warwickshire County Council provided congestion indicator data analysis results (based on tracking of speeds of in-car satellite navigation devises), as well as officers knowledge of traffic levels and issues, to understand the locations and levels of congestion.
9 Based on 2008 base model with DfT Tempro growth factors to 2031 applied. DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 25 of 109
To the north of the corridor the A5, M69 and A47 form the strategic highway network with high traffic flows and the B4666 is the key route between Hinckley town and Nuneaton. To the south of the corridor the A46, A452 and M40 form the strategic highway network and carry the highest flows.
3.4 Public Transport Network and Flows
Figure 15 shows the public transport network extending between Warwick / Leamington and Nuneaton. The diagrams show the level of service provided and the bus passenger flows which are largest on the radial routes within Coventry. There are significant flows on routes between Warwick and Leamington and between Coventry and Nuneaton. (There are significant east – west rail flows on the West Coast Main Line through Coventry and through Nuneaton which are not shown in the passenger flows diagram). Comparison between the figures reveals significant capacity provided between Coventry and Nuneaton and between Coventry and Leamington which is not matched by bus passenger flows.
Figure 15 AM Peak Bus Network Level of service and Passenger Flows
Figure 16 shows the distribution of bus passengers throughout an average weekday derived from the passenger surveys undertaken to develop the model in 2008. This reveals a lack of significant AM and PM peak travel on buses. The peak for bus travel lies between the traditional AM and PM peaks. This indicates a lack of work trips into the Coventry City Centre – which may be a result of the dispersal of employment to out of town business parks in the past.
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Figure 16 Hourly Distribution of Coventry City Centre Bus Passenger Flows
Hourly distribution of passengers -City Centre
7000
6000 5000
4000 Boarding 3000 Alighting Total Passengers 2000
1000 0
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Time Period
3.5 Mode Shares
Figure 17 shows the location of screenlines defined to assess mode shares at key locations in the North – South Corridor and Table 5 and Figure 18 show the results from the 2008 highway and public transport models. Generally both the absolute volumes of travel and the percentage using public transport increase closer to Coventry City Centre with mode splits ranging from around 8% outside Coventry to around 13% inside the City.
Table 5 AM Peak and Interpeak Mode Shares
AM Peak Interpeak Flows towards PT trips and Highway PT Trips and Highway Coventry Share Trips and Share Trips and Share Share S. of Nuneaton 0.2k (7%) 2.6k (93%) 0.3k (15%) 1.7k (85%) S. of Bedworth 0.3k (6%) 4.5k (94%) 0.3k (7%) 3.6k (93%) N. of Coventry CC 2.7k (13%) 17.2k (87%) 2.0k (14%) 12.2k (86%) S. of Coventry CC 1.8k (12%) 12.4k (88%) 1.2k (13%) 8.2k (87%) N of Kenilworth 0.5k (8%) 6.3k (92%) 0.3k (8%) 4.1k (92%) N of Warwick / 0.4k (8%) 4.6k (92%) 0.3k (8%) 3.5k (92%) Leamington
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Figure 17 Screenlines for Mode Share Analysis
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Figure 18 Screenline Analysis Inter-peak Hour
14 Public Transport Highway 12
10
8
6
4
2
0
S. of Nuneaton S. of Bedworth N. Coventry CC S. Coventry CC N. Kenilworth N. Warwick /
Leamington
3.6 Conclusions
The analysis has shown that;
• The corridor is relatively self contained – with around 80% of residents working in the corridor;
• The Corridor has significant East – West movements through it and to the West Midlands and London and the South East;
• The Corridor has significant North – South movements between the major urban areas;
• There is a fragmented North – South transport network for both public transport and highways.
• There is a relatively high public transport mode share within Coventry and to the north;
• There is greater reliance on private cars outside Coventry, especially to the south.
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4 JOURNEYS MOST IMPORTANT TO THE ECONOMY
This section presents an analysis of the nature of, and issues related, to the journeys most important to the economy in the corridor. The journeys most important to the economy are identified as;
• Business Travel – eg: travel to meetings which are important for the knowledge economy;
• Journeys to work – supporting economic activity and growth;
• Freight traffic – generated by businesses which often require an efficient highway network for just-in-time deliveries, and;
• Shopping and other visitor journeys – which support key aspects of the regional economy.
The analysis has involved interrogation of the journey purposes within the highway traffic and public transport journeys, identification of employment locations in the corridor and the origins and destinations of journey to work trips by different transport modes, analysis of freight traffic origins and destinations and freight traffic routes and analysis of shopping and other visitor attraction locations and patterns of travel demand.
4.1 Business Travel
Table 6 shows the journey purpose split in the Coventry / Warwickshire highway models revealing that around 10% of all trips are business related car trips – slightly higher proportion in the Inter-peak period. LVG business trips and HGV trips range from 3% to 8% across the day with a higher proportion in the inter-peak.
Table 6 Highway Trip Journey Purposes by Time Period
Purpose AM Peak Inter-peak PM Peak Car Business 9% 11% 8% Car Commute 51% 17% 55% Car Other 29% 55% 28% LGV’s Business 3% 7% 3% LGV’s Other 4% 3% 3% HGV’s 5% 8% 3%
Figure 19 shows the car based business trip flows in the inter-peak, highlighting the routes used through the corridor. In addition to the strategic highway network (M6, A45, A46, A444) there are significant flows in Coventry City Centre and on the Foleshill Road, Ansty Road, Walsgrave Road and roads in the vicinity of Warwick University and some orbital links including Burnaby Road.
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Figure 19 Inter-peak Car-based Business Trips Flows
Table 7 shows the breakdown of the bus passenger journey purposes by time period, sourced from the 2008 bus passenger interviews. There is generally a lack of business travel undertaken by bus, though twice as much in the inter-peak hours compared with the peak hours.
Table 7 Bus Passenger Journey Purposes by Time Period
Purpose AM Peak Inter-peak PM Peak Business 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% Commute 45.9% 11.4% 44.0% Other 53.9% 88.2% 55.8%
Figures 20 and 21 show the origin and destination journey purpose of rail passengers from interviews undertaken in July 2009. The interviews were undertaken with passengers waiting to board trains – a sample of 1,257 passengers.
A significant proportion (17%) of AM peak passengers boarding at Coventry were travelling out on Company Business and 10% of PM peak passengers were travelling back from Coventry on Company Business, in the inter-peak around 10% of rail journeys to and from Coventry are Company Business.
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Figure 20 Coventry Station Users Origin Journey Purpose by Time Period
Origin Purpose By Time Period
100% 92% AM 90% IP PM 80%
70%
60% 52% 51% 50%
40%
30%
20% 15% 14% 10% 10%10% 10% 7% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 3% 2% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% Home Work Shopping Education Social/Leisure Personal Company Others Business Business
Figure 21 Destination Journey Purpose by Time Period
Destination Purpose By Time Period 80% 76% AM IP 70% PM
60%
49% 50%
40%
32% 30% 30%
20% 17% 14% 11% 11% 10% 8% 8% 8% 6% 3% 3% 4% 4%3% 4% 3% 0% 0% 1%1%1% 0% Home Work Shopping Education Social/Leisure Personal Company Others Business Business
Table 8 shows the results of a survey of rail passengers on the Coventry – Nuneaton rail line undertaken in October 2009. This was a sample survey with 178 interviews. There are significantly more Company Business journeys undertaken by rail than by bus and a significant proportion of peak travel is related to business travel. Table 8 suggests that the proportion of inter-peak business use of the Coventry – Nuneaton line is significantly lower than for other lines in the region. This may relate to the low service frequency.
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Table 8 Coventry – Nuneaton Rail Journey Purposes by Time Period
Purpose AM (%) IP(%) PM (%) Work (commute) 39% 17% 55% Shopping - 7% Education 22% 19% 17% Social/Leisure 6% 17% 4% Personal Business 6% 21% 13% Company Business 17% 4% -
It is possible that business travellers by rail return after the main evening peak, which is dominated by commuters. This would tend to suggest that they are making long journeys – such as to London.
4.2 Journeys to Work
Figure 22 shows the key 2007 employment locations in the study area and Figures 23 and 24 show the key trip destinations in the AM Peak Highway and Public Transport Models.
The important journey destinations in the highway and public transport models closely match the key employment locations in Figure 22.
The important journey destinations in the highway model are;
• Coventry City Centre; • Walsgrave Hospital to the north east of Coventry; • Business Parks at Binley to the southeast of Coventry and Westwood Heath to the southwest of Coventry; • Warwick University; • The urban area to the east and northeast of Coventry and; • Bedworth and Nuneaton urban areas.
The important journey destinations in the public transport model are;
• Coventry City Centre; • The industrial ring around Coventry City Centre; • Bedworth, Leamington and Nuneaton Centres; • Walsgrave Hospital; • Warwick University and Westwood Business park, and; • A ring of out-of-centre zones around Coventry such as: in the vicinity of Coventry Airport to the South, Binley Business Park to the West and Jaguar Browns Lane to the West.
Comparing the public transport key destinations with Figure 22 reveals a number of important employment locations that have poor levels of public transport use;
• North Coventry; • Canley; • South Leamington; • Ansty; • West Warwick, and; • West Nuneaton.
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These locations are more likely to generate less sustainable travel patterns and be less accessible to residents of households with no access to a car.
Figure 22 Employment Locations 2007
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Figure 23 Highway AM Peak Trip Destinations
Figure 24 Public Transport AM Peak Trip Destinations
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4.3 Freight Flows
Figures 25 and 26 show the locations where freight traffic originates and is destined for in the inter-peak peak traffic models. Several key traffic generators within the urban areas can be identified such as; Camp Hill, Nuneaton; Bermuda Park, Nuneaton; Bedworth Industrial Estate; Whitmore Park, Coventry; Foleshill District Centre, Coventry; Binley Industrial Estate, Coventry; and Tile Hill Industrial Estates, Coventry.
Figure 25 Distribution of Inter-peak Peak Freight Origins
Figure 26 Distribution of Inter-peak Peak Freight Destinations
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Figure 27 shows the freight traffic flows in the AM Peak highway model showing the importance of the strategic highway network for providing access to the freight generator and attractors in the study area. The highest flows are on the M6 and also to the West of the study area on the A46 and A45. Other notable flows are on the A444 and B4113 (Foleshill Road) between Coventry and Nuneaton. Figure 27 AM Peak Freight Transport Flows
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4.4 Shopping Trips and Visitor Economy
Figure 28 shows the locations of key shopping centres and visitor attractions within the study area. The main shopping centres are in town / city centre locations where public transport access is good and others lie alongside radial highways where public transport services are also good, such as Ball Hill and Foleshill Road / Foleshill District Centre. However some out-of-centre shopping locations have relatively poor public transport access, such as Canley Park.
Figure 28 Key Shopping and Visitor Attractions
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Figure 29 shows the Inter-peak Public Transport trip destinations which are dominated by shopping trips made to the traditional centres of Coventry, Nuneaton, Leamington, Bedworth and Ball Hill and new shopping centres such as Foleshill. Walsgrave Hospital is also an important trip destination.
Figure 29 Interpeak Public Transport Trip Destinations
Figures 30 to 33 show the distributions of the origins of inter-peak shopping trips undertaken by bus in 2008. They demonstrate that Coventry has more shopping trips and a much wider catchment than the other centres, especially Bedworth.
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Figure 30 Distribution of Coventry Public Transport Shopping Trip Origins
Figure 31 Distribution of Leamington Public Transport Shopping Trip Origins
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Figure 32 Distribution of Bedworth Public Transport Shopping Trip Origins
Figure 33 Distribution of Nuneaton Public Transport Shopping Trip Origins
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The main visitor attractions are Warwick Castle, Coventry Cathedral, Coventry Transport Museum, Kenilworth Castle, Warwick Racecourse and a variety of other local museums in the main centres. It is understood that most visitors to Warwick Castle – the largest trip generator – are by car. The attraction is remote from the main public transport network and remote from the main urban areas. Kenilworth Castle and Warwick Racecourse are also remote from the main urban areas and public transport network. However, all other main attractions are in town centres.
4.5 Conclusions
The analysis of the journeys most important to the economy showed that;
• Business Trips are more likely to be undertaken by Rail and by Highway. This suggests that rail connectivity and capacity are important to the knowledge economy and that highway network efficiency, mainly the strategic highway network, is also important for these trips.
• Important Journey to Work Trips are made to; • Coventry City Centre where public transport is focused and; • A variety of out of centre locations including Walsgrave Hospital, Business Parks at Binley and Westwood Heath, Warwick University, east and northeast Coventry and Bedworth and Nuneaton urban areas – where public transport access is poor.
• There are notably less journeys to work by public transport to North Coventry, Canley, South Leamington, Ansty, West Warwick and West Nuneaton.
• There are significant freight traffic generators throughout the corridor and freight flows are significant on the strategic highway network.
• The analysis of shopping and other visitor attractions revealed that most shopping destinations (and some important visitor attractions ) are in locations with high public transport accessibility, except for a number of out of town shopping centres in Coventry;
• Some of the biggest visitor attractions include Warwick Castle and Racecourse which are not well served by public transport and have a significant draw from a wide area. Highway network efficient to the south of the study area is important to these businesses.
Key Challenges relate to;
• Providing public transport access to out of town locations for the labour market where there is low car ownership in Coventry and Nuneaton and Bedworth;
• Providing rail connectivity and capacity to support business;
• Providing public transport connectivity and capacity to City and town centres for journeys to work and shopping, and;
• Providing an efficient strategic highway network for freight traffic and access to some important out of town visitor attractions.
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5 TRAVEL CONDITIONS INHIBITING GROWTH
This section presents the results of analysis of the travel conditions which inhibit economic growth in the corridor to enable identification of the key challenges for the future. The analysis was undertaken through;
• Business interviews to elicit views on transport and accessibility issues in relation to the attraction of staff and movement of goods;
• Investigation of existing and future highway traffic congestion issues forecast through the available transport models, including understanding the travel demands underlying the reasons for identified highway network stress locations;
• Forecast change in the mode shares in the corridor, and;
• Public transport and highway accessibility analysis to understand connectivity problems in the corridor.
5.1 Business Consultations
Organisations were selected for consultation primarily by employment size and spatial distribution along the corridor. The selection of consultees was undertaken from datasets held by the local authorities and business representative organisations, to capture the most significant employers along the Corridor. This provided a spatial distribution of large organisations throughout the corridor
The focusing of effort on large organisations was primarily a function of economy. Sufficient resources were only available for 20 consultations, and it was considered that the most useful outcomes would be generated by talking to organisations that generated the most movement of people and (in the case of distributors) freight. 10
Consultations were conducted across a range of public and private sectors, including services, manufacturing and distribution operations. The private sector was broadly represented by four companies in the service sector, one haulage company and five logistics-intensive firms. Additionally, four regional business/haulage representative organisations were consulted to obtain overarching perspectives relating to the impact of transportation and accessibility on business performance and competitiveness. Approximately forty organisations were approached for consultation and nineteen interviews were completed11. An overview of these collective perspectives is presented below.
10 It is accepted that the skewing of consultations towards large employers (that is, large generators of traffic and movement) might mean that any specific transport issues affecting smaller businesses in the corridor that are not shared by larger organisations might be overlooked. However, it is not thought likely that this will be the case.
11 Three companies initially approached were not pursued due to sensitivities relating to the recent, impending or uncertainty of closure of operational sites. These firms included Dow Corning, Jaguar Land Rover (Tata) and Sony Ericsson. DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 45 of 109
5.1.1 Transportation and accessibility
Only four of the nineteen consultees perceived that transportation and accessibility was not a concern for their organisation. Seven consultees stated that transportation and accessibility was a concern, and eight consultees stated that transportation and accessibility was a major concern for their operations.
In terms of transportation, there was a wide view that the wider sub-region, is well- served by main transport routes (M1, M6, M40, M42, M69 & A45, A46 etc), but it is the local roads which provide the most significant issues for local businesses and public sector organisations. In short, any arterial road leading into Coventry City across the corridor is a hotspot for congestion. These issues are compounded by what was perceived as a fragmented public transport system, and an inadequate provision of car parking availability for both public and private sector organisations.
In terms of accessibility, the Coventry area has established a radial cluster of employment sites decentralised from the City Centre12. As identified from consultations, this type of employment site model generates its own challenges, including:
• commuting to these individual sites outside the City Centre is often associated with high personal transport use as the public transport system is perceived as too fragmented (between transport modes) and not flexible enough to meet individuals’ travel plans. This therefore adds to the volume of road traffic, especially at peak times at each end of the working day.
• these sites of high employment density are subsequently under pressure from high volumes of personal transport, but the access routes in and around these sites are inadequate to cope with this demand, often being limited to one access road to enter/egress the site (e.g. business park or industrial estate).
• defined car-parking facilities is limited at such employment sites, which results in greater on-street parking (on and off of the employment site) which further adds to congestion and reduces the ease of accessibility around these sites.
Additionally, it must be bore in mind that these high density employment sites are also subject to higher traffic levels from other external sources, such as hospitals, schools, colleges, universities and residential areas. Collectively, these all contribute significantly to levels of accessibility, congestion and parking at specific locations, especially during peak hours. In these broader terms of commuting, both public and private sector organisations are similarly affected.
5.1.2 Public transport system
As highlighted above, there is a strong reliance on personal transportation; in part this was attributed to the inefficiencies of the public transport system in being able to provide a full integrated (multi-modal) service to connect the major residential and employment sites. There were several perspectives given, highlighting the barriers of using the public transport system across the Corridor:
12 Examples of such sites include the business parks at Ansty, Binley, Meriden, Westwood, and Middlemarch/ Baginton around Coventry, and Spa Park towards the south at Leamington Spa, and Bermuda Business Park towards the north at Nuneaton. Similarly, such industrial estates. include the Toll Bar End, Aldermans Green and Three Spires around Coventry, and Dodwells Bridge towards the north at Hinckley, and the Heathcoate industrial estate near Warwick. DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 46 of 109
• difficulties in getting from A to B directly, especially for these out-of-town employment sites
public transport only operates at peak times - one can even be isolated in the middle of the day, with many services only operating at the start and end of the day
similarly, many employers operate outside of standard working hours (e.g. 24-7 Call Centres) and the public transport system is unable to provide services at these times
multi-modal journeys are not synchronised for bus/ railway connections with minimal waiting times for the next leg of the journey
especially for the south of the corridor, it was perceived that commuting to Coventry was impractical, as no direct rail services exist.
• cost of public transport seen as expensive, especially with the historic local authority and transport boundaries (and no integrated travel ticketing system)
• the requirement of transport at either end of the commuting journey can prove expensive, inconvenient or unviable, so the default mode is often by personal transport (e.g. car)
• long-distance commutes (e.g. 40 miles away; from Rugby, Daventry, Evesham, Stratford-Upon-Avon etc) are not viable due to a combination of the above – time, integration and cost
• a ‘love of the car’ mindset, requiring significant behavioural changes for people.
Perceptions of the public transport system did seem to be a significant factor for people. It was acknowledged that Coventry13 and the wider Corridor had been very proactive in improving public transport provision and reducing personal car mileage. This has been accompanied by the promotion of healthier lifestyles such as cycling and walking, and greater awareness of the green (climate change) agenda.
5.1.3 Traffic congestion
In the course of consultations we captured perceptions of where traffic congestion was most pronounced within the immediate vicinity of individual organisations. Additional sites (or routes) of high congestion were identified across the wider corridor geography, especially as many of the firms were logistics-intensive and acutely aware of the wider transport network issues, or as in some cases, the organisations operated across multiple sites. The sites or routes which were perceived as being most congested across the corridor are predominantly the major intersections with the motorway network, the arterial and circular roads around Coventry, as presented in Table 9.
Figure 34 summarises the locations of transport issues in the corridor.
13 For example, public transport promotion by Coventry City Council DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 47 of 109
Table 9 Sites identified as major road congestion hotspots
Corridor Site of Traffic Congestion North A5 – M69 (Junction 1) A5 / A47 Junction Northbound on Dodwells Road towards Leicester A5 / A47 Junction Southbound on the Long Shoot / Hinckley Road towards Nuneaton M6 Junction 2, including Walsgrave Business Park / Retail Park / Hospital, especially with current roadworks in place A444 from north and south of Nuneaton towards Coventry Central Ringway (A4053) The A444 (Phoenix Way), including by Foleshill Road The A444 and surround - The Ricoh Arena during events the A46, both southbound to Warwick, north to the M69 and eastbound traffic heading out to Rugby A4114 Holyhead Road, extending westward to the A45 Westwood Business Park / Cannon Park Retail Centre / University of Warwick developments Middlemarch Business Park / Coventry Airport, including Toll Bar Island The A45 all along, from the M42 to the M69. this is compounded by current roadworks from the direction of the M45 Toll Bar Island (even with new traffic lights) South the A45 (including between the M42 and M69) Other Any delays (e.g. accident) on the motorway network (M40, M6, M69 M42 and M1) results in much higher levels of traffic entering Coventry, causing significant congestion. This is becoming increasingly common. Outside of the corridor, the worst location for traffic congestion within the West Midlands was perceived as being at the M5 – M6 interchange Another hotspot identified outside the corridor was the A5 / M42 Junction Source: SQW Consulting
5.1.4 Business or organisational competitiveness
The overarching response to the priority agenda of private sector organisations was the current recession and its effect on business levels, cash-flow and ultimately business survival. One organisation; representing businesses, stated that transportation is generally very high on the corporate agenda, although this priority has been overshadowed during the economic downturn, but transportation will again top the agenda post-recession.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the single haulage company consulted, stated that business performance and competitiveness had been significantly impacted through transportation, accessibility and regulations, derived from a number of specific factors, including:
• increased fuel costs, which prove a significant cost across whole fleets
• greater delays in reaching distribution destinations. This factor can be compounded by regulations (such as the driving-time directive) and can impose additional overnight accommodation costs and salaries.
• penalties imposed by customers for late deliveries on scheduled time-slots. This system is becoming increasingly common for larger customers, with penalties of £1,000 for late deliveries. These costs can be much higher in some instances, such as the automotive sector, which temporarily close down production lines if delivered goods are not on time.
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Figure 34 Summary of Transport Network Issues
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Conversely, some logistics-intensive businesses did not express strong views regarding transportation or accessibility. From the mooted responses captured from these consultations, it may be a reflection that in part, their own distribution operations contribute to issues relating to transportation and congestion issues. As described below, issues relating to staffing may also impact on business performance.
5.1.5 Issues relating to staff
Transportation and accessibility was a recognised issue for many employers, largely relating to punctuality and operational (work-based) travelling. However, many organisations have introduced a degree of flexibility in their work patterns to accommodate the growing pressures of punctuality, including:
• logistics-intensive organisations have introduced early start times (4-5am) to avoid peak hours within the West Midlands, and may reach their destination prior to high congestion levels
• for those people within the service sector who are office-based, flexi-time may be allowed at the start of the day to minimise delays in commuting, as long as the hours are fulfilled at the end of the day
• for those people working in the service sector where transport is an integral part of their daily job, staff may have a degree of flexibility in planning their workloads so as to avoid congestion hotspots at specific times of the day
Conversely, transportation and accessibility was not generally associated with the ability to recruit Staff, especially in the current economic downturn where vacancies currently receive much higher levels of applicant responses. However, one consultee cited that recruitment of cleaning staff to work out of hours at the business parks was proving more difficult due to the accessibility and affordability of staff to reach these sites.
5.1.6 Issues relating to safety
There were three key aspects of safety highlighted during these consultations relating directly or indirectly to transportation and accessibility:
• The first aspect was directly, through road accidents which become more likely under greater volumes of traffic, especially with pedestrians and cyclists seen as being particularly vulnerable.
• Secondly, with greater issues surrounding accessibility, there was a subsequent higher risk when goods vehicles cannot get close to their drop-off sites. This can create health and safety issues in terms of moving large goods or bulk supply volumes, either for the individuals’ health, or in the logistics of safely reaching the final destination.
• The third issue relates to the public (emergency) services in attaining rapid responses, which is hampered more frequently by both higher congestions, and constriction of accessibility.
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5.2 Existing and Future Forecast Highway Network Issues
The existing transport models were used to highlight the transport issues and potential change in the future. Figure 35 shows the existing (2008 base model) AM Peak highway stress links defined by the volume to capacity ratio. Those links where the volume to capacity ratio is over 100%, and where congestion is forecast, are shown in red. Those links where the v/c ratio is over 85% are show in yellow and the remaining network is coloured green.
The diagram shows that there are existing capacity problems in Nuneaton Centre, on the A45, at Walsgrave Hospital, on the Coventry Ring Road and on the A46 and M6 and their approaches. Figure 35 2008 AM Peak Highway Network Stress Links
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Figure 36 shows the delays forecast at signalised junctions in the AM Peak highway network in 2008. The largest delays are experienced on the A45 at Broad Lane, Tile Hill Lane, Kenilworth Road and Tollbar End junctions, at the Binley Road / Allard Way junction, at the Coventry Ring Road / London Road junction, at the Walsgrave Road / Sky Blue Way junction and numerous other locations along the radial routes – especially within Coventry.
The perceived ‘hot-spots’ (in Figure 34) correlate with the modelled ‘hotspots’. Outside the modelled area the congestion indicator data and local observations confirmed that there is significant congestion on the A5, A47 and B4666 related to the junctions between Nuneaton and Hinckley and congestion at the M40 / A46 junction south of Warwick. There is also local congestion in Warwick and Leamington and on the A452 north of Leamington.
Figure 37 shows the forecast 2031 highway stress links in the AM peak and Figure 38 shows the stress links in 2031 in the Inter-peak. In the AM Peak the previously identified congestion locations remain and congestion is expected to be more severe and further congested links appear including; Burnaby Road, B4113 Foleshill Road, additional junctions on Coventry Ring Road, Walsgrave Road, Binley Road and around Warwick University.
In the Inter-peak congestion is expected at several of the locations currently experiencing AM peak congestion, especially in Nuneaton and Kenilworth. Figure 39 shows that in 2031 all AM peak junction delays increase with notable problems expected to occur on the A45 and Ansty Road in the vicinity of Walsgrave Hospital.
Figure 40 shows the resultant highway network speed changes in 2031. Significant speed reductions are expected on the strategic highway network – particularly the M6 and A46 and sections of the A45. Further speed reductions are forecast in the urban areas.
The importance of an efficient highway network was identified for business travel, freight, journeys to work and for some visitor attractions which are important for the economy of the corridor. The forecast increases in peak and inter-peak congestion will have negative implications for productivity, business competitiveness and the attractiveness of the area for inward investment.
A key challenge will be to minimise increased highway congestion and unreliability in the corridor, and to resolve existing ‘hot spots’ whilst providing for growth.
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Figure 36 2008 Highway Network Signalised Junction Delays
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Figure 37 2031 AM Peak Highway Network Stress Links
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Figure 38 2031 Inter-peak Highway Network Stress Links
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Figure 39 2031 Highway Network Signalised Junction Delays
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Figure 40 Changes in Highway Link Speeds AM peak to 2031
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Further analysis of key links in the transport models was undertaken to further understand the nature of the problems and relevance for the study objectives.
Figure 41 shows the origins (purple) and destinations (red) and local highway links used to by users of the M6 southbound in the AM peak. In addition to the major west to east through flow there are significant north-south flows from Nuneaton and Bedworth and North and West Coventry and to East Coventry including to several specific destinations inside the A46 ring road.
Figure 41 Origins and Destinations of M6 Southbound AM Peak
The reliability of the M6 between Junctions 2 and 3 is important for north-south connectivity in the corridor (as well as east – west movements relevant to the Access to Birmingham DaSTS Study).
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Figure 42 shows the analysis of the northbound users of the A46 south of M6 junction 2 in the AM peak, revealing significant flows from a large area of East, South and West Coventry and significant flows off the M6 at junction 3 on the A444 northbound.
Figure 42 Origins and Destinations of A46 Northbound AM Peak
The reliability of the A46 is important for North – South connectivity in the corridor, including access to out of centre business parks and access to a large part of South Coventry.
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Figure 43 shows the analysis of the origins and destinations of AM peak users of Burnaby Road eastbound. This road is close to capacity in the base model and forecast to be overloaded in 2031. The diagram shows that, as well as serving local movements in North Coventry, the link is important for trips from West Coventry to Nuneaton and Bedworth and provides an important strategic network role in terms of North – South connectivity beyond it’s designation in the highway network. The lack of a strategic highway link to the west of Coventry results in significant ‘rat-running’ through north Coventry to access the A444 via Burnaby Road.
Figure 43 Origins and Destinations of Burnaby Road AM Peak
The reliability of the highway network (and impact on the reliability of bus services) is particularly important in north Coventry.
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Figure 44 shows the assessment of origins and destinations of traffic using Warwick Road northbound in the AM peak – another link currently over capacity and forecast to be a greater problem in 2031. This shows that this route is favoured over the A46 London Road for North – South traffic, with most traffic using the west side of Coventry Ring Road. Traffic is destined for the City Centre, North Coventry and (to a lesser extent) Nuneaton and Bedworth. Reliability of this link is important for business travel (including access to the Station) and also impacts on bus service reliability in South Coventry (including access to Warwick University) and to Kenilworth and Leamington. Figure 44 Origins and Destinations of Warwick Road AM Peak
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Table 10 and Figure 45 show the 2031 models mode shares, revealing that in the AM peak the public transport mode shares are similar to 2008 except between Bedworth and Coventry where the large increase in highway trips reduces the public transport share. In the inter-peak there is a forecast reduction of the public transport mode share throughout the corridor and a significant change between Nuneaton and Bedworth.
Table 10 AM Peak and Inter-peak Mode Shares 2031
AM Peak Interpeak Flows towards PT trips and Highway PT Trips and Highway Coventry Share Trips and Share Trips and Share Share S. of Nuneaton 0.3k (7%) 3.3k (93%) 0.3k (10%) 2.8k (90%) S. of Bedworth 0.3k (6%) 4.8k (94%) 0.3k (6%) 4.4k (94%) N. of Coventry CC 3.0k (11%) 23.0k (89%) 2.3k (13%) 15.7k (87%) S. of Coventry CC 1.7k (12%) 13.1k (88%) 1.3k (11%) 10.4k (89%) N of Kenilworth 0.6k (8%) 7.1k (92%) 0.3k (7%) 5.0k (93%) N of Warwick / 0.5k (8%) 5.2k (92%) 0.3k (6%) 4.2k (94%) Leamington
Figure 45 Screenline Analysis Inter-peak Hour 2031
18000 Public Transport 16000 Highway 14000
12000 10000
8000 6000
4000
2000
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C ton C on orth C C w try ilworth ngt unea ed entry en en N B ov ov K eami of of /l N ck S S N C S C i
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Key challenges are; to provide a reliable highway (and bus) network to secure business productivity, competitiveness and inward investment; to secure the economic growth and population growth without increasing car travel and; to secure a reduction in car travel to achieve the climate change goals, which is counter to the forecast background trend.
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5.3 Public Transport and Highway Accessibility
The Highway and Public Transport Visum Assignment models forecast journey times have been analysed to compare public transport and highway accessibility in the corridor and to compare different parts of the corridor14 in terms of public transport accessibility.
Figure 46 shows the transport model forecasts of journey time accessibility for public transport journeys and for highway journeys into Coventry City Centre. The public transport journeys include walking and waiting times and interchange delays (where appropriate). The highway journeys are the in-car elements only and therefore underestimate overall journey time which would include parking and walking times. Also, the ‘islands’ of accessibility outside the core model area reflect external zones / cordon points and should be ignored.
However, it can be seen that most of the urban areas lie within 30 minutes of the City Centre by public transport – though some parts of Warwick District including parts of Leamington and Warwick are within 45 minutes which may be slightly longer than people are prepared to travel within this corridor. The highway accessibility map suggests a high level of accessibility within Coventry urban area and extending north to Nuneaton and south to Kenilworth. All of Bedworth and some parts of Nuneaton are within 20 minutes of the City Centre and all parts of Nuneaton within 30 minutes.
Overall public transport accessibility is significantly poorer than highway accessibility.
Figure 46 Accessibility – Coventry City Centre; PT and Highway
14 Note that the public transport model does not cover Hinckley and Earl Shilton and the highway model does not cover Hinckley and Earl Shilton nor Warwick / Leamington. DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 63 of 109
Figure 47 shows a comparison between public transport and highway accessibility for Ryton – a typical out of town location. This shows that public transport accessibility is very restricted while highway accessibility is much higher by comparison. Figure 47 Accessibility – Ryton; PT and Highway
Figure 48 shows the PT and Highway accessibility of Ricoh Arena, showing significantly greater accessibility by both public transport and highway, though public transport access is constrained to north Coventry and Nuneaton.
Figure 48 Accessibility – Ricoh Arena; PT and Highway
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Figure 49 shows the public transport accessibility for other key development locations and trips attractors in the corridor – South Leamington and Walsgrave Hospital.
The majority of the population of the corridor lies outside 45 minutes journey time of South Leamington suggesting that development there will have a constrained labour market.
A significant proportion of Coventry City lies within 30 minutes of Walsgrave Hospital and almost all of Coventry and Bedworth is within 45 minutes. The presence of both orbital and radial bus services enhances public transport accessibility compared with other edge of urban area locations.
Figure 49 PT Accessibility - South Leamington and Walsgrave Hospital
Overall, this analysis suggests that for people without access to a car for their journey to work the business parks on the outskirts of Coventry and the suburban locations, such as south Leamington are outside their travel to work areas. This locations therefore have a restricted labour market compared to the City Centre. In addition, poor public transport accessibility limits the ability of disadvantaged populations in the corridor to access higher value jobs in the south of the corridor.
For people with access to a car for their journey to work accessibility of out of town centre employment locations is greater, resulting in higher levels of car use. As a result, the out of town centre employment and shopping locations generate a greater level of transport related carbon emissions.
Poor public transport accessibility throughout the north-south corridor undermines the economic strategy and the ability to secure the planned growth in the corridor sustainably.
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A key challenge is to improve north – south public transport connectivity between areas of need and areas of opportunity to secure transformation of the economy (and related social issues).
5.4 Conclusions
This analysis has shown that;
• Business competitiveness, productivity and the attractiveness of the area for inward investment is threatened by ‘hot-spots’ of highway congestion including the M6, A5 / A47, A45 and A46 junctions and certain key radial and orbital routes in Coventry. • Lack of public transport accessibility restricts the job search areas of non-car owners in some areas of need in North Coventry, Bedworth and Nuneaton, especially in relation to out of centre employment locations. • The economic growth goal is threatened by existing and forecast strategic highway congestion. • The climate change goal is threatened by the underlying trend away from public transport use.
Key Challenges identified are;
• To minimise increased highway congestion and unreliability in the corridor, and to resolve existing ‘hot spots’ whilst providing for growth;
• To provide a reliable highway (and bus) network to secure business productivity, competitiveness and inward investment;
• To secure the economic growth and population growth without increasing car travel and;
• To secure a reduction in car travel to achieve the climate change goals, counter to the forecast background trend.
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6 INHIBITING FACTORS AND UNDERLYING CAUSES
This section identifies the inhibiting factors and underlying causes based on the interpretation of the preceding sections. The analysis is presented with the framework of the DaSTS goals. Within each goal the key transport challenges are identified and the factors and causes presented to form the framework for identification of interventions to resolve the challenges in Stage 2.
6.1 Support Economic Growth
The study has identified that improving connectivity and reliability within the North South Corridor is a key outcome required to support economic growth. The analysis of the background economy revealed that the northern part of the corridor is underperforming economically – particularly Nuneaton and Bedworth and to a lesser extent Coventry and Hinckley. Significant growth is forecast and will be concentrated in the North South Corridor as extensions of the urban areas. Regeneration of the Coventry City centres with substantial office growth is planned and there are opportunities to focus development in the most sustainable locations. However, there are a number of out of centre locations where employment growth is also planned and where public transport services levels are poor. Improving connectivity between labour supply and employment is an important role of transport in supporting economic growth as well as improving journey times for the movements of goods.
Key transport challenges to meet the economic, social and environmental goals have been identified as;
• Securing sustainable housing growth and securing sustainable economic growth, particularly through; Improving access to out of town locations of employment development (particularly public transport); Encouraging sustainable transport and sufficient capacity for future city centre (and other and town centre) development; • Improving accessibility between areas of need in the north of the corridor to areas of opportunity in the south of the corridor to increase social inclusion; • Improving highway connectivity, capacity / reliability, particularly the strategic road network; • Improving public transport connectivity to improve access to employment, and; • Improving public transport services and reliability to encourage transfer from car.
The challenges and their transport related causes and factors underlying the achievement of economic growth in the corridor are identified in Table 11.
Table 11 Economic Growth Issues Causes and Factors
Challenge Factors Causes Secure Additional housing likely to generate more Significant housing development pressure Sustainable car trips and add to congestion in Warwick District. Housing Growth Significant development in Coventry City Higher levels of public transport service and City extensions likely to be more and use. Higher levels of walking and sustainable. Cycling especially in City Centre.
Significant urban extensions of Relatively low levels of public transport Leamington, Warwick, Bedworth, service and use. Longer distances to Nuneaton, Barwell and Earl Shilton travel for access to work and facilities.
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Challenge Factors Causes Out of town Resulting from; locations of • Second World War employment Loss of single large site operators with replacement of Coventry development defined shifts limits works buses viability. bombed factories at Lack of PT access results in car periphery. domination. • 1980’s land use policy promoting out of town Unsustainable locations for bus services, development around high levels of free car parking provided Coventry and also south of results in car domination. Nuneaton and outside Warwick and Leamington. Continued to present. Future Town / Private non-residential parking provision • Likely to result in radial route City Centre encouraged car use. congestion causing traffic and Development bus reliability problems Planned transformation of City Centre and particularly in Coventry City. employment growth.
East – West rail services capacity • Public transport capacity concerns. But Network Rail are providing concerns mainly rail (though not for longer trains. Constraints to rail service an issue in North-south corridor). capacity south of Coventry through single track. Constraints to train lengths north of Coventry (2-car platform at Bedworth). • Parking capacity concerns and Coventry City Parking Policy promotes demand short stay, long stay higher price and limited capacity. Park and ride well used to south – limited scope to expand. Limited Possibly as a result of (amongst other movement of things such as skills miss-match); people from Observed in the public transport model. • Limited Job Search Areas based the north to Lack of through services – requiring on 30 – 45 minute journey available jobs interchange and extending journey time / thresholds. in south of the reliability risk. corridor. Low incomes and housing without space • Low car ownership and poor to park cars tends to limit car availability in public transport accessibility to Coventry and Nuneaton / Bedworth. south. Relatively high car ownership and use in Warwick district limits the quality of the public transport network.
Highway There are a number of physical barriers to Connectivity movement;
Traffic is forced to use the A4600 via • Poor connection between the Coventry Ring Road or B4110. Much of A444 and A46. North – South traffic uses Warwick Road.
There are also limited crossings of the • No strategic Orbital connection to railway - traffic rat-runs through north West of Coventry. Coventry – creating congestion on Burnaby Road • No direct connection between Creates congestion on A5 and Longshoot the A47 north and south of the and Dobwells junctions A5.
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Challenge Factors Causes Highway There are a number of congestion hot Capacity / spots on the strategic network; Reliability Out of Centre development and expansion • A45 junctions – resulting from of Warwick University. conflict between local and strategic traffic movements.
Constrained entrances / exits. No grade • Coventry Ring Road – as a result separation at Foleshill Rd junction. Short of traffic using the ring road to merge sections, high speeds. access the City Centre and other radial routes.
Lack of enforcement of parking • B4113 Foleshill Road, B4109 restrictions and bus priorities. Need to Stony Stanton Road (and other promote business in urban area requiring radials), strategic traffic and local access. High car ownership in areas traffic conflicts including on-street where there is limited off road parking. parking and servicing.
High speeds of circulating traffic on large • M6 junction 2 conflicting roundabouts. movements of traffic using M6, M69, A46, A4600 and B4065.
High speeds of circulating traffic on large • M6 Junction 3 – conflicts roundabouts. Use of A444 and M6 to between north – south access east Coventry. movements and traffic accessing A444 and B4113 from / to M6.
Lack of suitable roads for orbital traffic in • M6 between junctions 2 and 3 as north Coventry. Significant out of town a result of both strategic traffic development at Ansty and Walsgrave and traffic movements between Hospital. A444 north of Coventry and A4600 / A46 west of Coventry. Lack of alternative access to Hospital site. • A4600 / B4082 Walsgrave, radial traffic conflicts with orbital traffic Travel plan aims to maximise public including accessing Walsgrave transport but no Rail Station to provide Hospital. alternative to road based access. • A444 junctions north Coventry, Significant development around Bermuda especially before and after and conflicting strategic / local traffic. events at Ricoh Arena.
Lack of other orbital routes esp West of • A444 approaching Nuneaton Nuneaton (due to barrier of railway). Ring (south). road used to access town centre and other radials.Key radial routes meeting • Nuneaton Ring Road junctions. north of railway – which forms a barrier to alternative routes / orbital routes. • A444 / A47 north of Nuneaton.
Conflicting movements between accesses • M69 junction 1 / A5 / B4109. – lack of grade separation of A5.
Primary route to access A46 runs through • Kenilworth Centre, Warwick town centre. Road.
Volumes of traffic and lack of grade • A452 Kenilworth – Leamington separation. inc A46 jn.
Private school traffic car dominated • Emscote Road and Coventry
Road, Warwick.
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Challenge Factors Causes Highway Main shopping streets are also main • Kenilworth Road and Prince’s Capacity / through routes between north and south Drive, Leamington. Reliability Leamington. (cont’d) Grade separation of M40 junction and • A46 Warwick. access remodelling should assist.
• M40 Access roads south of Volumes in peaks and conflicting Leamington northbound and southbound movements to / from Warwick and Leamington.
Public The structure of the Public Transport Transport network is presented in Figure 50. Connectivity Rail services are focused on the larger Specific issues are; demand attractors of Birmingham and London. Forces interchange at Coventry • Lack of through rail services Station. Through north – south services at (Coventry). Coventry would conflict with east – west services, reducing capacity and increasing unreliability. Priority is given to Strategic rail freight services.
West Coast upgrade track changes • Lack of through rail services physically removed connection to enable (Nuneaton). Coventry to Leicester services.
Poor access to rail for North – Lack of stations at key locations – • Kenilworth, South Coventry, North South movements stations only at Leamington, Coventry, Coventry (inc Coventry Arena), Hawkesbury, Bermuda. Bedworth and Nuneaton.
Stagecoach network operates between • Lack of through bus services. Coventry and Leamington – focussed on Warwick University, and Coventry – Nuneaton / Hinckley. Forced interchange at Coventry.
National Express Coventry operate largely • Lack of local north – south within the City Boundary (exceptions = buses. Bedworth and Warwick University / Kenilworth / Leamington. Deregulation limits duplication and co-operation between operators.
• Lack of orbital bus services. There is a limited number of orbital bus
services in Coventry focused on specific demand attractors (eg: Warwick University, Walsgrave Hospital, Foleshill District Centre). Frequencies and hours of operation vary. Lack of complete orbital service partly results from lack of suitable orbital highway network.
Coventry Ring Road presents a major • Poor penetration of Rail in physical barrier and lack of direct route, Coventry City Centre. underpass unattractive and unsafe. Physical distance to City Centre.
Nuneaton ring road presents a barrier and • Poor penetration of Rail in distance to main attractors also an issue. Nuneaton Centre.
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Challenge Factors Causes Public High levels of highway accessibility and • Poor PT access to out of town Transport free car parking restrict ability for buses to retail and employment sites. Connectivity attract sufficient demand to be Cont’d commercial. • Limited park and ride Only Coventry City can support dedicated opportunities. park and ride. Memorial Park (south Coventry) and Austin Drive (North east Coventry) well used. Lack of site on A444 north and A46 south (also east and west). Tends to require initial subsidy. Lack of suitable land. Planning restrictions. Lack of (free) rail park and ride. Parking charges at Leamington and Nuneaton relate to longer distance rail demands. Public A number of causes of perceptions of Transport poor public transport to support economic Services and development are; reliability Single track sections on the Leamington – Coventry route limits capacity for other • Low rail frequencies between local services – priorities given to Cross Coventry and Warwick / Country passenger and strategic freight Leamington and between trains. Murco oil depot operations on Coventry and Nuneaton. Coventry – Nuneaton line limit capacity.
Bus services provided commercially, lack of sufficient demand to provide higher • Low bus frequencies in frequencies. Councils have limited Nuneaton, Warwick / Leamington revenue funding to support services other and some radial and orbital than socially necessary. Parking policies services in Coventry. favour short stay in Town / City Centres with relatively low charges. No parking changes at out of town developments. • Fares and lack of integrated
tickets – see Figure 51 showing Centro provide a series of all operator the National Express and network tickets but only within West Stagecoach networks – each Midlands County. Warwickshire lack operator provides separate resources to develop similar integrated ‘network’ tickets. tickets.
• Radial route delays caused by Lack of bus priorities at some key traffic congestion in the peaks. locations and on all corridors. Most
corridors physically constrained limiting potential.
Figure 50 (referred to in Table 11) presents an interpretation of the public transport network in relation to north-south connectivity issues. The network is composed of urban local bus networks centred on Coventry, Nuneaton, Warwick / Leamington and Hinckley with strategic bus services between Coventry and Warwick / Leamington and between Coventry and Nuneaton / Hinckley via Bedworth. There are also strategic rail services between Birmingham and London and between Birmingham and Leamington. Services between Leamington and Coventry are low frequency and extend on to Birmingham. Services between Coventry and Nuneaton are low frequency and services from Hinckley to Nuneaton extend on to Birmingham. This pattern of services results in the need to interchange for longer north-south public transport journeys at Coventry, Nuneaton and Warwick / Leamington.
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Figure 50 Public Transport Network North-South Connectivity Issues
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In addition, the main east – west transport movements provide barriers to north – south services at Coventry and at Nuneaton. At Coventry train capacity issues prevent operation of north – south services (though strategic north-south freight trains pass through the station). At Nuneaton the ability to operate between the Coventry – Nuneaton and the Nuneaton – Leicester lines was physically removed in the recent West Coast Main Line modernisation works.
Within Coventry there are a number of orbital bus services and cross city services, however, there is no complete circular orbital service and no longer distance north – south cross-city bus services. The nature of the bus network leads to further public transport interchanges at Walsgrave Hospital and Foleshill District Centre. The relatively complex network presents problems for passengers required to make non- radial bus journeys, requiring a high level of route knowledge / understanding.
Figure 51 (referred to in Table 11) shows the networks operated by the two main operators National Express Coventry and Stagecoach. The importance of this diagram relates to fares and ticketing issues for bus passengers. Each operator (and Centro in Coventry City) provides a range of tickets for their network resulting in high bus travel costs for journeys beyond either network shown. As travel costs will be a key factor in determining the job search areas of people in the corridor, it is likely that the lack of through fares limits the take up of jobs outside the immediate bus network, with a negative influence on the economic agenda for the corridor. Figure 51 Comparison of N. E. Coventry and Stagecoach Bus Networks
National Express Coventry Network Stagecoach Network
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6.2 Tackling Climate Change
The DfT’s DaSTS databook provides data at a district-level for transport related carbon emissions in 2006. The databook classifies each district within a range from under 1 tonne of CO2 per capita per annum to over 4 tonnes per capita per annum. The data for the districts in the study area is;
• Hinckley and Bosworth District – 1 to 2 tonnes per capita per annum; • Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough – under 1 tonne per capita per annum; • Coventry City – 1 to 2 tonnes per capita per annum, and; • Warwick District – 1 to 2 tonnes per capita per annum.
Transport carbon emissions in Nuneaton and Bedworth are significantly below the national average, and Coventry, Warwick and Hinckley are below the national average. This may result from the relative self-containment of the corridor and relatively short trips (around 4.3km for public transport and 8km for car trips), as well as the lower income levels, low car ownership and high public transport use compared with rural areas of the UK.
The challenge will be to ensure that the growth in the corridor is achieved whilst maintaining the relatively low transport carbon emissions. In addition, the government may require the urban areas to produce a significant contribution to the national targets for carbon reduction, as the urban areas have higher levels of public transport and these are locations where shorter trips are made - with greater likelihood of securing travel reductions and increased walking and cycling use.
Reducing carbon emissions from the transport sector will require a range of measures to reduce the emissions from cars and freight traffic. The key challenges identified to meet this objective in the corridor have been identified as;
• Low levels of public transport use, especially outside Coventry; • Low levels of walk and cycle trips; • High levels of car use, and; • High levels of emissions from cars.
The challenges and their transport related causes and factors underlying the achievement of the climate change objective in the corridor (in addition to those mentioned in relation to Public Transport use in section 6.1) are identified in Table 12.
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Table 12 Climate Change Issues, Causes and Factors
Challenge Causes Factors Low levels of PT Use Other than the connectivity and especially outside service levels there are a number of Coventry other reasons why public transport is not used; There are many reasons for not • National Express buses giving change on urban services don’t give change. including encouraging take-up of pre- paid tickets, reducing bus dwell times and speeding up services and reducing cash handling.
• Need to walk to and wait Some walk environments are poor for bus services. and some places do not have shelters where demand ‘does not justify it’, where it is physically difficult to provide and due to costs involved.
Pre-journey. Lack of information Lack of information about • available to individuals, eg network network, times of map and timetables due to costs of services. production and distribution, frequent changes.
Within journey. Lack of real-time information on services.
• Poor integration between No timetable coordination. Bus bus and rail (eg poor services target specific local markets quality access between (eg shopping) rather than longer Coventry Station and distance needs. Warwick Road services). Between Coventry Station and Warwick Road (and the important 12 service) there is a long narrow walkway and staircase with no weather protection. • Buses are regarded as unsafe, particularly by One man operation is cheapest but young people. lack of official presence on the buses results in anti-social behaviour and crime, especially on top deck of double deck buses. • Bus services can be uncomfortable – Traffic calming has been particularly where there implemented with inappropriate are road humps on humps on bus routes (or buses have routes. changed routes).
• Poor bus driver attitudes / helpfulness. Lack of customer care training (to keep costs low) and employment of overseas drivers with poor language
capability.
• Poor cleanliness of Bus cleaning levels are low and vehicles. infrequent due to pressure to reduce costs. Even quality contract arrangements do not clean vehicles to the standard desired by car owners / users.
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Challenge Causes Factors Low levels of PT Use especially outside • Lack of permanence of Buses lack ‘permanence’ compared Coventry (cont’d) bus services – frequent to rail and light rail. Deregulated service route and environment resulting in short notice timetable changes changes and sometime frequent especially where there is changes upsets passengers, competition. especially infrequent users.
• Public perception / peer Buses have a poor reputation (eg pressure. termed ‘looser cruisers’) putting off young people and car users.
Low levels of walk and Walk and cycle trip levels have cycle trips been declining over several decades and cycle trip levels are very low, identified causes are;
• Increasing journey to work Transformation of economy results in distances. people moving job without moving home.
• Increasing journey to Policy allowing parents to choose school distances. schools and presence of private schools in Warwick. • Increasing car availability and use, replacing short trips.
• Decline in range and quality of local shopping centres as a result of supermarket growth.
• Increasing traffic levels making it difficult to cross roads (safely) (pedestrians) and providing conflicts with cyclists and accidents.
• Hilliness of some parts of the corridor (in Coventry and Nuneaton) making cycling hard work and unattractive.
• Lack of places to store bike’s at trip destinations.
High levels of car use Car trip levels have increased significantly since the 1950’s, increasing pollution and reducing local air quality. Identified causes are;
• Human desire for independence and comfort of car travel.
• Increasing journey distances.
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Challenge Causes Factors High levels of car use • Reducing household size. (continued) • Lack of car sharing.
High levels of Some reasons for the high emissions from cars emission levels of cars are;
• Intensive flows of vehicles on radial routes in Coventry and other congested locations due to peak flows / directions.
• Large range in types of vehicles available – tendency to own large vehicles and 4x4’s in suburban areas.
• Few low carbon vehicles available.
6.3 Better Safety, Security and Health
The previous assessments of public transport, walking and cycling issues have highlighted a number of safety and security issues. In terms of transport’s contribution to health the identified issues relating to walking and cycling affect physical fitness and the identified issues in car use, emissions and local air quality affect the health of residents of urban areas.
Figure 52 shows the Air Quality Management areas and accident ‘hot spots’ in the corridor. The accident hotspots are based on an accident record of 15 or more accidents or 3 or more fatal or serious accidents, in the past 5 years. The data was obtained from the Spectrum database (covering Coventry City Council area) and Warwickshire County Council. The Air Quality Management Areas (AQMA) information was obtained from the following documents:
• Coventry City Council Air Quality Progress Report 2008; • North Warwickshire Borough Council Air Quality Action Plan; • Warwick District Council Air Quality Management; and • Hinckley & Bosworth Borough Council Air Quality Review and Assessment.
The air quality management areas are related to City and Town Centres and radial highway corridors – particularly the Foleshill Road and Stoney Stanton Roads in Coventry. These correlate with some of the areas suffering deprivation and would tend to correlate with poor health. Measures which reduce the amount of car traffic in the AQM’s such as improved public transport and promotion of sustainable transport should be promoted. In addition, measures which reduce strategic traffic on the Foleshill and Stoney Stanton Roads would contribute to this objective in the corridor.
The figure also shows that the key accident hotspots occur at key junctions in the strategic highway network including the M6, A46, A45, A452 and Ansty Road. Also, off the strategic highway network in the urban areas of Warwick / Leamington and Nuneaton and at a number of rural locations outside the urban areas.
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Figure 52 Air Quality and Accident Issues
There is a high correlation of certain types of crime – particularly physical attacks and robbery – with the subways around Coventry. The transport network which previously prioritised highway traffic over pedestrians has created safety and security issues. Part of the City Centre regeneration strategy will be focused on improving the environment including removal of some subways to improve accessibility (particularly between the Station and the City Centre).
In summary, the challenges are;
• High traffic levels in Coventry City Centre, and other urban areas and on radial corridors especially in peak periods;
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• High levels of emissions from traffic; • Traffic accidents at the main intersections; • Security issues created by the transport infrastructure – particularly Coventry Ring Road subways.
6.4 Equality of Opportunity
The assessment of the public transport network highlighted issues that affect the equality of opportunity objective. Land use policy that encouraged out of town development which could not support bus services restricted opportunity to access jobs and services for low income / low car availability groups.
Figure 8 showed the relatively high levels of deprivation particularly in Coventry (Especially in the North and North West of the City) and in Bedworth and Nuneaton to the North. Figure 4 shows that this deprivation is correlated with the pattern of claimants of job seekers allowance.
These areas of deprivation have lower levels of car ownership and use and therefore greater reliance on public transport. The study has revealed that within Coventry there are relatively high levels of public transport service but poor connectivity outside the city and for orbital movements. In Nuneaton and Bedworth public transport connectivity is worse with lower bus frequencies and less connectivity to employment in parts of the corridor.
For those with access to cars, increased need for north – south travel to secure employment / increased income results in congestion on the strategic highway network including the M6 and A45 / A46 as well as some radial routes in Coventry and orbital rat-runs. Poor public transport access to out-of-town employment sites results in a reduced likelihood for people without access to a car to secure jobs. For people with access to cars there are relatively high transport costs.
The future development plan retains some out-of-town intensive employment locations, notably Ansty Park and Bermuda Park, however, most employment growth is to take place in Coventry and half of that growth will be in the City Centre, the most accessible place by public transport in the corridor. Half of the remaining Coventry employment growth will be related to the Universities which are also relatively well connected – though Warwick University is at the edge of the city and public transport access could be improved.
The main challenges related to equality of opportunity have been covered in Tables 11 and 12.
6.5 Quality of Life / healthy natural environment
Section 6.4 identified that there are transport issues that affect air quality where traffic congestion has been identified as an issue.
Road traffic generates noise which creates a poor environment for people living in the vicinity of the strategic road network – particularly where traffic speeds are high. High levels of traffic can affect the quality of radial shopping street environments (such as Foleshill Road, Stoney Stanton Road and Ball Hill (Walsgrave Road)) particularly where there is congestion and high levels of atmospheric pollution. This is a particular problem in Coventry but also applies to shopping streets in Bedworth and Leamington.
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Improving the quality of Coventry City (and Nuneaton and Bedworth) as a place to live and work is an important element of the regeneration agenda. There are two aspects –
• housing renewal areas, for example, in NorthWest Coventry and Camp Hill, Nuneaton, and;
• City Centre regeneration – in terms of the shopping centre, creation of a 24/7 city centre and reducing the severance effect of the ring road to encourage office and other commercial development to renew the urban street scene – particularly around Coventry Station.
Transport issues are important in terms of the quality of life and planned improvements – particularly in Coventry City Centre.
The main transport challenges related to this objective were identified in Tables 11 and 12.
6.6 Conclusions
Definition of the inhibiting factors and causes was undertaken within the framework of the DaSTS and corridor objectives. The key transport challenges identified to tackle the economic, social and environmental issues are defined as;
• City Centre development – the planned location of the majority of future employment (eg Friargate in Coventry), needing to be accessed by sustainable means to avoid causing congestion on radial routes.
• Out of town locations of employment - lacking public transport access and change from fixed ‘shift’ times resulting in high dependence on car.
• Improving accessibility to enable people in the north to secure training and jobs in south – due to fragmented north – south highway network, lack of through rail and bus connectivity and low service levels, congestion and bus network structure (integration) including fare zone impacts.
• Improving highway connectivity, capacity and reliability improve productivity, competitiveness and inward investment – due to capacity at key junctions on the strategic highway network.
• Improving Public Transport services and reliability to encourage sustainable travel and reduce carbon emissions including the new housing developments proposed – due to quality of buses, poor rail accessibility and service levels, radial highway congestion.
• Encouraging Sustainable transport to reduce carbon emissions and improve health and quality of environment – due to poor levels of priority, road safety, lack of facilities, personal security.
The priority challenges relate to transport improvements to support to the economic and social regeneration agenda. Benefits need to accrue to deprived areas, primarily in Coventry and Nuneaton and Bedworth. In addition, the climate change and other agendas require a reduction in carbon emissions. The strategic outcomes and objectives sought include;
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• Improving productivity through improving knowledge intensity and improving the local labour market for knowledge intensive businesses (especially in Coventry and Warwick). Transport needs to provide improved access to training and employment particularly between the North and South of the corridor.
• Securing new housing and employment opportunities in Coventry and the North of the corridor including transport intensive businesses - manufacturing and distribution. These businesses require access to labour but also a reliable transport network (principally highways).
• Securing reduction in carbon emissions whilst securing growth relies on people adapting to sustainable transport solutions, throughout the corridor and where sustainable transport is most realistic – e.g. Coventry Centre. The aim is to reduce short distance car trips through walking / cycling and long distance car trip transfer to public transport.
These outcomes encompass the improved equality of opportunity objective and achievement of the desire outcomes will also contribute to the health and safety and quality of life goals.
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APPENDIX A DRIVERS OF PRODUCTIVITY
1. Skills
Skills are an important driver of productivity in that qualifications affect both the demand and capability of the workforce. Figure 53 displays the proportion of the WAP with no qualifications and those who have attained National Vocational Qualifications level 4 and above within the corridor and with regional and national comparators.
Positively the proportion of the WAP has been increasing with respect to NVQ4+ qualifications and decreasing in regard to the proportion with no qualifications. In 2008, the proportion of the WAP with NVQ 4+ qualifications reached 26.9%, an increase of almost five percentage points on 2002 levels. However, despite this improvement the gap between the corridor and England that was converging in 2006, has begun to reopen despite over 40% of the population in Warwick in possession of these qualifications, in part due to the presence of Warwick University.
The proportion of WAP with no qualifications in the corridor stood at 12.9% in 2008, 0.6pp above that of the national average. This factor is inflated by the high proportion of WAP without qualifications in Nuneaton and Bedworth (16.5%).
Turning to NVQ levels 2 and 3, the proportion of the WAP achieving this level of qualification has increase by 1% and 3.1%, respectively. At the same time the proportion with a NVQ level 1 qualification only has reduced, suggesting there may be some evidence of skills progression in the corridor.
Job related training is also seen as an important way of increasing skills levels in the workplace with the potential to increase efficiency and therefore productivity. A high level of job related training implies that companies are investing in human capital and the future of their business as well as increasing their competitiveness. Figure 54 shows that a slightly lower proportion of the workforce received job related training in the last four and 13 weeks in 2008. However it is clearly evident that this has not always been the case, in fact those receiving job related training in the last 13 weeks has been persistently higher in the corridor than regional and national comparators in the last few years and still remains broadly in line with comparators. Indicating that job related training is quite a high priority for the businesses located within the corridor.
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Figure 53 Qualifications
Proportion of Working Age Population without Qualifications
20 The Corridor West Midlands 18 England
16 14
12
10
8
6 4
no qualifications with WAP of Percentage 2 0 Mar 2002-Feb Mar 2003-Feb Jan 2005-Dec Jan 2006-Dec Jan 2007-Dec Jan 2008-Dec 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Proportion of Working Age Population with NVQ4+ Qualifications
35 The Corridor West Midlands England 30
25
20
15
10
5
no qualifications with of WAP Percentage
0 Mar 2002-Feb Mar 2003-Feb Jan 2005-Dec Jan 2006-Dec Jan 2007-Dec Jan 2008-Dec 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
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Figure 54 Percentage of WAP who received job related training in the last 4 and in the last 13 weeks
25
23 Last 13 w eeks England 21 19 West 17 Midlands
15 Last 4 w eeks The related training related 13 Corridor 11
9 Percentage of WAP who received job job who received of WAP Percentage Mar 2002- Mar 2003- Apr 2004- Apr 2005- Apr 2006- Apr 2007- Apr 2008- Feb 2003 Feb 2004 Mar 2005 Mar 2006 Mar 2007 Mar 2008 Mar 2009
Source: Annual Population Survey/Labour Force Survey
2. Enterprise
An important indicator of enterprise is business formation. The standard measure for enterprise in a particular locality is the number of new businesses registering for VAT per annum per 10,000 WAP. It is apparent from the data that VAT registrations have remained below that of the wider West Midlands and England until 2007, when the number of registrations per 10,000 WAP hit 51 compared with 48 in the West Midlands. Looking at the four districts that make up the corridor individually in regard to this indicator shows that an increase in VAT registrations per 10,000 occurred across the board, with an impressive 75 registrations per 10,000 WAP achieved in Warwick – perhaps indicating a high level of spin outs from the University.
The increase in VAT registrations has been reflected in a 10% increase in overall VAT stock (business density) in the corridor. However, despite this increase, VAT stock in the corridor remained significantly below that of the West Midlands and England in 2007 standing at 464 VAT businesses per 10,000 WAP compared with 509 and 549 respectively. Encouragingly, the increase in VAT stock per 10,000 WAP since 2002 across the four districts has been above that of the comparator areas showing potential for the gap to narrow over time if this trend persists, especially if Warwick is to continue to exceed all other areas, achieving almost 700 VAT stocks per 10,000 in 2007.
Looking in more detail at the broad industrial sectors most active in terms of VAT registration and de-registration shows that the corridor broadly mirrors that of the region and England. The greatest proportion of VAT registrations in the corridor were in the real estate, renting and business activities (44.1%) followed by wholesale retail and repairs (19.6%) and construction (10.4%).
Likewise, the greatest proportion of de-registrations were also in these broad industrial sectors. This data suggests that there are opportunities within the real estate and renting sector in connection with construction activity in the district. However, it is likely that when published the 2008 data will tell a different story with regard to these two sectors in light of the credit crunch and ongoing recession.
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Figure 55 VAT registrations and stock
600 60
55
500 50
45
400 40
35
300 30 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007
The Corridor (VAT stock) West Midlands (VAT stock) England (VAT stock) The Corridor (VAT regs) West Midlands (VAT regs) England (VAT regs)
Source: VAT registrations & stock, NOMIS
In addition to the information provided about the number of VAT registrations and stock, the proportion of WAP who are self employed can also provide a good indication of the level of enterprise in an area. In accordance with national and regional trends the corridor has seen a sharp reduction in self employment and is now significantly below that of the regional (8.0%) and England (9.3%) proportion at only 6.0%. With the exception of Warwick where the proportion of those in self employment stood at 9.6% in March 2009, the other districts within the corridor also exhibit much lower proportions of self employment than the wider West Midlands and England as a whole.
Figure 56 Proportion of those in employment who are self employed
14 13 12
11 England
10 West 9 Midlands 8 7 The Corridor 6 self employed 5 4 Mar Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr 2002-Feb 2003-Feb 2004-Mar 2005-Mar 2006-Mar 2007-Mar 2008-Mar 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 who are employment in of those Proportion
Source: Labour Force Survey and Annual Population Survey
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 86 of 109
3. Investment
The third driver of productivity is investment. Official statistics at a local level are limited and the Office for National Statistics does not recommend the use of ABI capital expenditure figures. Thus the main indicator used is the value of new construction orders – displayed in Table 13. The total value of construction orders in the corridor in 2008 was £515 million, an increase of only 3.4% since 2007, owing to the significant reduction in construction orders witnessed in Nuneaton and Bedworth and Hinckley and Bosworth. However, as data is only available for these 2 years, no firm conclusions can be drawn from this reduction.
Table 13 New construction orders
All new work 2007 (millions) All new work 2008 (millions) Coventry 278 319 Nuneaton + Bedworth 75 26 Warwick 109 146 Hinckley + Bosworth 36 24 Corridor 498 515 Source: Office for National Statistics
In 2007/08, over 2,100 houses were built within the corridor boundaries, although this is greater than the previous year there is no trend presented in the data. However, overall there has been a reduction in the number of house completions per 10,000 population from 40 to 32 since 2002/03. Interestingly, the number of house completions per 10,000 population has increased in Coventry (from 27 to 37) due to the districts status as a growth point with an additional 24,000 houses expected to be built in the area by 2026 according to the Regional Spatial Strategy. In contrast, there has been a vast reduction in the number of houses built per 10,000 population across the other three districts.
Figure 57 House completions (builds) per 10,000 population
2007/08
2006/07 The Corridor
2005/06 West Midlands
2004/05 England
2003/04
2002/03
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 House completions per 10k population
Source: DCLG and ONS mid year population estimates
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 87 of 109
4. Competition
It is somewhat challenging to find robust indicators to measure the level of competitiveness at a local level. However a useful measure is the UK Competitiveness Index, which contains a benchmark for the regions and localities, based on the capacity of a local economy to attract and maintain firms with stable or rising market shares, whilst maintaining a stable or increasing standard of living for local residents. The table below shows the positions of all four districts within the corridor in 2006 and 2008.
Table 14 UK Competitiveness Index
Rank 2006 (out of 407) Rank 2008 (out of 407) Coventry 207 186 Nuneaton & Bedworth 337 329 Warwick 57 58 Hinckley & Bosworth 153 134 Source: Office for National Statistics
A further indication of the level of competitiveness can be gained by looking at the number of new businesses relative to the total business stock in an area calculated as VAT registrations as a percentage of the total year end VAT stock. The corridor has remained above that of the regional and national averages in relation to this indicator since 2002, with VAT registrations making up 11.0% of VAT stock in 2007, compared with 9.4% and 10.4% in the West Midlands and England respectively.
The Office for National Statistics provides details on the survival rates of businesses at various intervals. The one year and three year survival rates of businesses established in 2004 show that survival rates are greater than regional and national comparators within the corridor (apart from in Coventry). This suggests that the business environment within the corridor is more supportive and that the supply chains are strong within the area. The table below displays the survival rates in full.
Table 15 Business survival rates
1 year survival rates 3 year survival rates Coventry 91.7 62.7 Nuneaton & Bedworth 94.0 72.3 Warwick 94.6 70.5 Hinckley & Bosworth 93.1 67.3 West Midlands 92.5 64.8 England 92.6 63.5 Source: Office for National Statistics
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 88 of 109
5. Innovation
The proportion of Knowledge Intensive Businesses (KIBs)15 in a location suggests the degree to which value added, innovative activity is taking place. In the corridor 8.9% of employees work within a KIB and 14.7% of data units were classified under this definition in 2007, both of which exceed the regional average. In addition, the proportion of data units classified as KIBs also surpassed the national average of 14.2%. Across the four districts within the corridor, the largest proportion of KIBs employees (9.9%) can be found in Coventry whereas the largest proportion of KIBs are located in Hinckley and Bosworth where 16.8% of data units are KIBs.
Figure 58 Knowledge Intensive Business
England
employees West Midlands
data units
The Corridor
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Percentage of total in 2007
Source: Annual Business Inquiry
Interestingly the proportion of employees in KIBs in the corridor has decreased by 0.4pp since 2002, whilst the corridor has at the same time witnessed an overall increase (2.3%) in the proportion of data units that are KIBs. This suggests a broadening of the business base to include higher value added activities. At district level, increases in the proportion of data units that are KIBs has increased across the board although the change in proportion of employees in KIBs across the four districts is rather varied from a 0.7% reduction in Coventry to a 0.5% increase in Nuneaton and Bedworth.
15 Knowledge intensive industries are based on the OECD definition. It includes the following industries defined by 3 digit SIC 2003 codes in the ABI: pharmaceuticals, office machinery and computer, aerospace, precision instruments, electrical engineering, telecommunications, financial intermediation, insurance and pension funding, activities auxiliary to financial intermediation, computer and related activities, other business activities, motion picture and video activities, and radio and television activities. DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 89 of 109
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 90 of 109
APPENDIX B METHODOLOGY FOR EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS
This appendix provides a detailed explanation of the methodology used by SQW to establish the potential employment growth for the corridor area under various degrees of policy intervention. The purpose of this process is to establish the impact of both current and future developments – in terms of employment and economic output – and that also have the potential to generate significant transport demands in the corridor.
1 Establishing the baseline growth position
The first step in the model was to establish the baseline employment position across the corridor area. This was done simply by obtaining employee figures for each of the lower level super output areas (LLSOAs) within the corridor area. At this stage employment was also collated for each of the broad industrial sectors, so that the distribution of Gross Value Added (GVA) across the corridor could be calculated as accurately as possible16. The GVA figures used throughout the model are displayed below.
Table 16 Gross Value Added assumptions
GVA (£m) 2007 2016 2031 Agriculture and fishing 22,547 29,643 64,145 Energy and water 142,328 147,342 198,081 Manufacturing 41,192 46,387 62,541 Construction 28,446 30,146 34,753 Distribution, hotels and restaurants 22,911 25,764 32,920 Transport and communications 42,402 49,908 72,014 Banking, finance and insurance 35,344 44,436 64,446 Public administration,education & 22,467 25,865 33,184 health Other services 22,825 26,022 32,600 Total 31,533 35,991 47,387 Source: SQW analysis of CE forecast data
In order to calculate the projected employment growth anticipated for the corridor area in the absence of the development of any of the employment sites identified as part of the study, the Cambridge Economics (CE) employment forecasts have been used.
16 GVA was calculated for each individual LLSOA using the regional GVA figure for each sector divided by the total number of employees in that sector to give GVA per employee for each broad industrial sector. The appropriate GVA per employee figure for each broad industrial sector is then multiplied by the number of employees in that sector for each LLSOA. This then creates GVA value for each broad industrial sector within the LLSOA which can then be aggregated together to provide the total GVA for the LLSOA. Please note that GVA per employee figures are calculated using workplace GVA from the regional accounts (latest data 2006 at time of use) and total number of employees from the Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) for the same year. DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 91 of 109
CE’s Local Economic Forecasting Model (LEFM) is based at local authority district level. As SQW currently holds this data for Coventry City Council’s area, we considered that the use of these assumptions for the corridor as a whole was plausible given that the district makes up half of the total employment in the corridor. The model combines CE’s knowledge of regional, national and international indicators with knowledge of the local area to produce its forecasts as far as 2026. The following table lists the indicators and assumptions contained within the LEFM model.
Table 17 Indicators and assumptions of the CE LEFM model
Indicators Assumptions Gross output, value-added and employment by The components of domestic final expenditure, sector disaggregated into spending by function as Employment by gender and status published in the UK National Accounts Employment by occupation Components of personal incomes Components of final expenditure (exports and Gross output, value added and employment by imports are treated as to/from the local economy) 41 sectors Personal incomes Matrices to convert the components of domestic Demographic indicators, including unemployment final expenditure into commodity demand for 41 sectors Input-output coefficients and projected changes Projected changes in occupational structure and gender Forecasts for the local economy Population by 5-year age band and gender Source: CE In order for the model to be applied to the broad industrial sectors the employment numbers for the 41 sectors were aggregated into the appropriate broad industrial sectors. The compound growth rate17 was then calculated for each of the nine broad industrial sectors as well as the total for the periods 2007 to 2016 and 2007 to 2026 – the latest period available. The resulting compound growth rates are displayed below.
Table 18 Annual compound growth rates
Broad Industrial Sector Annual compound rate Annual compound rate 2007-2016 2007-2026 Agriculture -4.1% -5.8% Energy & water -1.0% -1.4% Manufacturing -2.5% -2.1% Construction -0.1% 0.7% Distribution, Hotels & Restaurants -0.3% 0.1% Transport & Communications -0.7% -0.3% Banking, Finance & Insurance 0.1% 0.7% Public administration, Education & 0.2% 0.3% Health other services -0.1% 0.1% Total -0.3% 0.1% Source: SQW analysis of CE employment forecast for Coventry
17 Compound growth rate formula = ((B/A)^(1/n)-1) where A is the number of employees in 2007, B is the number of employees at some other specified point in time and n is the number of years that B is in the future. DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 92 of 109
The compound growth rates calculated for each broad industrial sector for the period 2007 to 2016 were them applied to the 2007 ABI figures for each LLSOA to produce employment forecasts for 2016. To be consistent with the transport model being developed simultaneously by Jacobs, SQW also forecast employment growth to 2031 using the compound annual growth figures for 2007 to 2026, extending the period by an additional five years. Again, GVA was calculated for these two periods using the same method as before. The table below shows the forecasted employment growth and associated GVA for 2016 and 2031.
Table 19 Forecasted employment growth (rounded to the nearest hundred) and associated GVA
2007 2016 2031 Employment GVA Employment GVA Employment GVA (£m) (£m) (£m) Coventry 138,900 4156.5 135,100 4647.7 141,800 6506.7 Hinckley & 28,800 987.0 28,100 1057.3 29,400 1407.0 Bosworth Nuneaton & 38,400 1136.4 37,400 1262.6 39,200 1762.3 Bedworth Warwick 76,800 2464.3 74,700 2779.8 78,400 3969.3 Total corridor 298,800 9209.2 290,700 10263.9 304,900 14370.1 Source: SQW analysis 2. Identifying future employment growth – top down view
The second stage of developing the employment growth model involved an extensive review18 of the Regeneration Strategies, Employment Land Reviews and Annual Monitoring Reports for the four primary districts as well as any other documentation suggested by the respective council planning departments. The purpose of this review was to obtain two specific pieces of information. Firstly, employment forecasts for the each of the districts including the methodologies used and second to establish a comprehensive list of the potential employment sites in each of the four districts.
After careful consideration of the employment forecasts presented in the available policy documentation, District Level Forecasts produced for the Coventry Solihull Warwickshire Sub-region Employment Land Study 2007 produced by DTZ was chosen as a base as they:
• appeared logical and consistent with other forecasts cited in the review • were based on the same time periods as our model • included scenarios of varying levels of growth.
That said, the DTZ forecasts do have limitations, especially in that the model does not include the district of Hinckley and Bosworth. Therefore, in order to derive a plausible growth assumption for that district the same assumptions that pertain to the neighbouring (and similarly sized and structured) Nuneaton & Bedworth district were applied.
Based on the DTZ employment change forecasts, the following tables display those adopted for this study.
18 Details of which can be found in the bibliography in Appendix E DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 93 of 109
Table 20 Forecast Employment Change 2006 – 2016
Base Trend Moderate High High+ Coventry 7,100 8,300 9,600 11,000 Hinckley & 1,200 1,500 1,725 2,000 Bosworth Nuneaton & 1,600 2,000 2,300 2,600 Bedworth Warwick 5,000 5,600 6,500 7,500 Total 14,900 17,400 20,125 23,100 Source: CSW Employment Land Stud and SQW Consulting
Table 21 Forecast employment change 2016-2031
Base Trend Moderate High High+ Coventry 8,200 9,900 11,700 13,500 Hinckley & 1,350 1,800 2,025 2,300 Bosworth Nuneaton & 1,800 2,400 2,700 3,100 Bedworth Warwick 6,300 7,200 8,200 9,400 Total 2016-2031 17,650 21,300 24,625 28,300 Total 2006-2031 32,550 38,700 44,750 51,400 Source: CSW Employment Land Stud and SQW Consulting
3. Identifying future employment growth – bottom up view
A comprehensive list of both current and potential employment sites in each of the four districts was compiled using the documents detailed in Appendix E. Additional information on these sites was then taken into account, including: • land use allocations for the site • the amount of land on the sites that had recently been developed • what amount currently under construction • what area was left to be developed • what constraints and planning permissions were applicable to the site
At this point location clues were also noted so that the sites could be allocated to the most appropriate LLSOA to inform the employment growth model. The full list of sites was then discussed with the planning departments of the four councils to ensure that all relevant sites had been captured and the information we had collected from the various documents was still accurate.
The next stage was to calculate the potential jobs that could be created from these 76 sites. This was done by first converting the gross total hectares of employment land in to net total hectares of employment land using an assumed average development ratio of 70%. These net employment land figures were then converted into square metres of development floorspace broken down by land use type19.
19 Employment land use is denoted as B1 (Offices) B2 (Industrial use/factories) and B8 (Distribution/warehousing) for the purpose of this study. The applicable employment density figures taken from the English Partnerships Employment Density Guide 2009 are as follows: • B1 – 19 sq m per employee • B2 – 34 sq m per employee • B8 – 90 sq m per employee DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 94 of 109
Employment density assumptions figures, as specified in the guidance produced by English Partnerships in 2001, were applied in order for the employment capacity of the sites to be calculated. The employment capacity for each of the four districts and the corridor as a whole are provided below however results for each individual site can be viewed in Appendix C.
Table 22 Employment Site Capacity
District Employment site capacity (rounded to the nearest hundred) Coventry 46,300 Hinckley & Bosworth 4,900 Nuneaton & Bedworth 16,500 Warwick 22,900 Total 90,700 Source: SQW Consulting 4. Allocation of future employment potential across the opportunity sites
The final stage in this process was to allocate this potential employment across the sites. This was done based on the four growth scenarios displayed above and also taking in to account the constraints and issues regarding specific sites.
As such the study team have allocated employment to city centre office developments first as this is also follows market trends over the last ten years, where demand has been focused on office developments such as Spinning Fields in Manchester and Brinkley Place in Birmingham, rather than out of town business parks.
However it must be noted that this method of allocation has not been tested by the Local Authorities concerned, which is something the study team intend to do as part of the second stage of the study.
Incorporating the potential employment growth from these employment sites to the base employment forecasts produces the following potential employment and GVA for the four districts and the corridor as a whole.
Table 23 Potential employment and GVA in 2016
Low growth Moderate growth High growth High+ growth Emp GVA (£m) Emp GVA Emp GVA Emp GVA (£m) (£m) (£m) Coventry 141,700 5,099 142,900 5,413 14,3700 5,171 145100 5,222 Hinckley & 29,200 1,051 29,500 1,062 29,700 1,069 30,000 1,077 Bedworth Nuneaton & 39,000 1,403 39,400 1,418 39,700 1,431 40,100 1,443 Bosworth Warwick 78,700 2,832 79,800 2,873 80,700 2,904 81,600 2938 Total 304,700 10,967 308,100 11,087 310,700 11,183 313,700 11,289 Source: SQW Consulting
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Table 24 Potential employment and GVA in 2031
Low growth Moderate growth High growth High+ growth Emp GVA (£m) Emp GVA Emp GVA Emp GVA (£m) (£m) (£m) Coventry 154,200 7,308 156,800 7,428 158,900 7,528 162,100 7,682 Hinckley & 31,800 1,509 32,500 1,541 32,800 1,555 33,400 1,582 Bedworth Nuneaton & 43,000 2,035 44,100 2,088 44,900 2,125 45,600 2,159 Bosworth Warwick 88,400 4,191 90,600 4,293 92,400 4,380 94,700 4,489 Total 336,600 15,951 343,600 16,283 349,600 16,569 356,500 16,893 Source: SQW Consulting
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 96 of 109
APPENDIX C EMPLOYMENT SITES & POTENTIAL CAPACITY
The table below presents the potential capacity of current and future development of employment land sites in the corridor area.
LLSOA (or closest within Gross total Net total Site District corridor) (Ha) (Ha) Mix of use Total Jobs Friargate Coventry E01009642 - - B1 12,500
Websters/ EMR (Paragon) Coventry E01009573 2.5 2.5 B1/B2/B8 2,000
Severn Trent Water Coventry E01009548 0.7 0.5 B1 1,700
Jaguar Browns Lane Coventry E01009590 - - - 1,500
New Century Park Coventry E01009620 10.2 7.1 B1/B2 1,000
Belgrade Plaza Coventry E01009642 0.6 0.4 B1 1,000
City Centre Shopping Coventry E01009642 - - - 1,000
Coventry College (Butts/QCA) Coventry E01009689 0.8 0.6 B1 900
Parkside 2 Coventry E01009548 2.2 1.5 B1 811
Edgwick Park Industrial estate (Blue Ribbon) Coventry E01009567 4 2.8 B1/B2/B8 750
Prologis Park Coventry E01009590 2.8 2.0 B2 750
Binley Business Park Coventry E01009532 1.6 1.1 B1 589
Westwood Business Park Coventry E01099680 1.5 1.1 B1 553
Venture Works Coventry E01009626 1.6 1.1 B1/B2/B8 348
Aldermans Green Phase 2 Coventry E01031099 0.8 0.6 B1/B2/B8 295
Land at Well St/ Chapel St/ Bishop St Coventry E01009642 0.8 0.6 B1 295
CU Engineering Coventry E01009642 - - 250
Holbrook Lane Coventry E01009587 1 0.7 B1/B8 223
Land at Farren Road/ Bodmin/ Clifford Bridge Road Coventry E01009712 0.6 0.4 B1 221
Regeneration Far Gosford St Coventry E01009642 - - area 100
Wayside House Coventry E01009589 1.2 0.8 B8 93
Leofric Business Park Coventry E01009538 0.25 0.2 B1 92
Regeneration Stoke Aldermoor Coventry E01009611 - - area 50
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 97 of 109
LLSOA (or closest within Gross total Net total Site District corridor) (Ha) (Ha) Mix of use Total Jobs Former Nailstone Hinckley & Colliery Bosworth E01025852 9.5 6.7 B1/B8 1,860
Hinckley & Dawkins Abbatoir Bosworth E01025837 1.1 0.8 B1 405
North of Coventry Hinckley & Road Bosworth E01031116 4.7 3.3 B1/B2/B8 366
Hinckley & Jarvis Porter Bosworth E01025851 3.7 2.6 B8 288
Hinckley & Groby Lodge Farm Bosworth E01025848 0.3 0.2 B1/B8 268
Nutts Lane East Midlands Electricity Hinckley & Site Bosworth E01025853 2.7 1.9 B1/B2/B8 210
Hinckley & Sycamore Farm Bosworth E01025837 0.5 0.4 B1 184
County Landscape Hinckley & products Bosworth E01025835 0.5 0.4 B1 184
Hinckley & Derby Road Bosworth E01025851 0.5 0.4 B1 184
Hinckley & Pear Tree Farm Bosworth E01025833 0.4 0.3 B1 147
Hinckley Fields Hinckley & Industrial Estate Bosworth E01025861 0.3 0.2 B1 111
Hinckley & Land near Watling Cl Bosworth E01025835 0.1 0.1 B1/B8 110
Sunnyside Business Hinckley & Park Bosworth E0125861 1.4 1.0 B1/B2/B8 109
Beveridge Lane Hinckley & industrial Estate Bosworth E01025871 1.2 0.8 B1/B2/B8 93
Hinckley & Essentia House Bosworth E01025858 0.2 0.1 B1 74
Station Road Hinckley & Industrial Estate Bosworth E01025837 0.2 0.1 B1 74
Hinckley & Wharf Yard Bosworth E01025857 0.1 0.1 B1 37
Barwell Business Hinckley & Centre Bosworth E01025821 0.4 0.3 B1/B2/B8 31
Hinckley & Stoke Industrial Park Bosworth E01025878 0.1 0.1 B2 21
Alexandra Stone Hinckley & Works Bosworth E01025876 0.1 0.1 B2 21
Nuneaton & Bermuda Park Bedworth E01031050 28.2 19.7 B1/B2/B8 2,193
Nuneaton & Prologis Park Bedworth E01031076 24.32 17.0 B1/B2/B8 1,892
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 98 of 109
LLSOA (or closest within Gross total Net total Site District corridor) (Ha) (Ha) Mix of use Total Jobs Nuneaton & Gallagher Park Bedworth E01031076 4.2 2.9 B2,/B8 1,533
Hemdale Business Nuneaton & Park Bedworth E01031100 5.7 4.0 B1/B2/B8 443
Nuneaton & Liberty Way Bedworth E01031120 1.2 0.8 B1 442
The Moorings Nuneaton & Business Park Bedworth E01031099 1.5 1.1 B1/B2 431
Nuneaton & Attleborouh Bedworth E01031120 4.7 3.3 B2/ B8 366
Nuneaton & Bermuda 1 Bedworth E01031050 4.3 3.0 B2/ B8 334
Nuneaton & A444 Bedworth E01031113 0.4 0.3 B1/B2/B8 87
Nuneaton & King St Bedworth Bedworth E01031064 0.1 0.1 B1 37
Nuneaton & Seymour Road Bedworth E01031053 0.1 0.1 B1 37
Ansty Rugby E01031159 4,000
Peugeot Site (Ryton) Rugby E01031181 39.3 27.5 B2/ B8 3,000
Tachbrook Park Warwick E01031319 25.3 17.7 B1/B2/B8 4,406
Former Honiley Airfiled Warwick E01031283 10 7.0 B1 3,684
South Heathcote Lane Warwick E01031319 17.8 12.5 B1/B2/B8 3,100
South West Warwick B1/B2/B8 Severn Trent Warwick E01031326 17.8 12.5 3,100
Spa Park Warwick E01031262 13.8 9.7 B1/B2/B8 2,403
Middlemarch Warwick E01031269 14.8 10.4 B2/B8 1,151
Queensway Business B1/B2/B8 Park Warwick E01009642 4.8 3.4 836
Land at Queensway Warwick E01031312 3.2 2.2 B1/B2/B8 557
Former Fords B1/B2/B8 Foundary Warwick E01031271 3 2.1 522
Former Council Depot Warwick E01031317 1.4 1.0 B1 516
Stoneleigh Deer Park Warwick E01031308 1.6 1.1 B1/B2/B8 279
South West Warwick B1/B2/B8 Capital & Counties Warwick E01031326 1.5 1.1 261
The Piggery Warwick E01031268 0.5 0.4 B1 184
Oldhams Warwick E01031269 0.4 0.3 B1 147
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 99 of 109
LLSOA (or closest within Gross total Net total Site District corridor) (Ha) (Ha) Mix of use Total Jobs Combined justice Centre Warwick E01031324 0.4 0.3 B1 147
Police Headquarters Warwick E01031312 0.3 0.2 B1 111
Land at Nelson Lane Warwick E01031310 0.5 0.4 B1/B2/B8 87
Common Lane Warwick E01031300 0.7 0.5 B8 54
North Fosse Farm Warwick E01031301 0.3 0.2 B1/B2/B8 52
Park Drive Warwick E01031291 0.5 0.4 B8 39
Quarry Farm Warwick E01031326 0.35 0.2 B8 27
Total 294.1 206.6 68,254 Source: SQW Consulting
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 100 of 109
APPENDIX D EMPLOYMENT ALLOCATIONS 2016
The following table presents to potential employment level for each LLSOA, under the four growth scenarios.
LLSOA (or closest Low Medium High within Growth Growth Growth High Plus Site District corridor) 2016 2016 2016 2016 Friargate Coventry E01009642 750 1250 1500 2900
Severn Trent Water Coventry E01009548 1700 1700 1700 1700
Websters/ EMR (Paragon) Coventry E01009573 500 500 500 500
Belgrade Plaza Coventry E01009642 500 500 500 500
City Centre Shopping Coventry E01009642 500 500 500 500
Coventry College (Butts/QCA) Coventry E01009689 900 900 900 900
Prologis Park Coventry E01009590 500 500 500 500
Parkside 2 Coventry E01009548 400 400 600 600
Jaguar Browns Lane Coventry E01009590 0 200 200 200
Aldermans Green Phase 2 Coventry E01031099 0 0 0 0
New Century Park Coventry E01009620 0 0 0 0
Edgwick Park Industrial estate (Blue Ribbon) Coventry E01009567 0 0 250 250
Venture Works Coventry E01009626 100 200 200 200
Binley Business Park Coventry E01009532 100 150 200 200
Westwood Business Park Coventry E01009680 100 200 250 250
Far Gosford St Coventry E01009642 100 100 100 100
Holbrook Lane Coventry E01009587 50 50 50 50
Wayside House Coventry E01009589 93 93 93 93
Stoke Aldermoor Coventry E01009611 50 50 50 50
Leofric Business Park Coventry E01009538 0 0 0 0
Land at Well St/ Chapel St/ Bishop St Coventry E01009642 0 0 0 0
Land at Farren Road/ Bodmin/ Clifford Bridge Road Coventry E01009712 0 0 0 0
CU Engineering Coventry E01009642 0 0 0 0
Hinckley & Barwell UEA Bosworth E01025825 350 500 600 750
Hinckley & Dawkins Abbatoir Bosworth E01025818 150 150 150 150
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 101 of 109
LLSOA (or closest Low Medium High within Growth Growth Growth High Plus Site District corridor) 2016 2016 2016 2016 Hinckley & Groby Lodge Farm Bosworth E01025873 100 100 100 120
Hinckley & Sycamore Farm Bosworth E01025818 60 60 60 60
Hinckley & County Landscape products Bosworth E01025835 100 100 100 100
Hinckley & Jarvis Porter Bosworth E01025851 100 150 150 150
Hinckley & Sunnyside Business Park Bosworth E01025861 50 50 50 50
Hinckley & Derby Road Bosworth E01025851 0 0 50 50
Nutts Lane East Midlands Hinckley & Electricity Site Bosworth E01025853 50 150 150 210
Hinckley & North of Coventry Road Bosworth E01031116 50 50 100 150
Hinckley & Essentia House Bosworth E01025858 74 74 74 74
Hinckley & Pear Tree Farm Bosworth E01025833 0 0 30 30
Hinckley & Wharf Yard Bosworth E01025857 37 37 37 37
Hinckley & Barwell Business Centre Bosworth E01025821 31 31 31 31
Hinckley & Alexandra Stone Works Bosworth E01025873 21 21 21 21
Hinckley & Stoke Industrial Park Bosworth E01025873 21 21 21 21
Hinckley & Station Road Industrial Estate Bosworth E01025818 0 0 0 0
Beveridge Lane industrial Hinckley & Estate Bosworth E01025873 0 0 0 0
Hinckley & Land near Watling Cl Bosworth E01025835 0 0 0 0
Hinckley Fields Industrial Hinckley & Estate Bosworth E01025861 0 0 0 0
Nuneaton & Prologis Park Bedworth E01031076 500 600 650 800
Nuneaton & Bermuda Park Bedworth E01031050 600 700 800 900
Nuneaton & Bermuda 1 Bedworth E01031050 200 200 200 200
Nuneaton & Liberty Way Bedworth E01031120 50 100 100 100
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 102 of 109
LLSOA (or closest Low Medium High within Growth Growth Growth High Plus Site District corridor) 2016 2016 2016 2016 Nuneaton & The Moorings Business Park Bedworth E01031099 100 150 150 150
Nuneaton & Hemdale Business Park Bedworth E01031100 0 0 100 100
Nuneaton & Gallagher Park Bedworth E01031076 50 150 150 150
Nuneaton & A444 Bedworth E01031113 50 75 115 115
Nuneaton & King St Bedworth Bedworth E01031064 29 29 29 29
Nuneaton & Seymour Road Bedworth E01031053 0 0 0 0
Nuneaton & Attleborouh Bedworth E01031120 0 0 0 50
Ansty Rugby E01031159 750 1000 1500 1500
Peugeot Site (ryton) Rugby E01031181 0 0 0 0
Spa Park Warwick E01031262 400 750 750 750
Tachbrook Park Warwick E01031319 900 1000 1500 1750
South Heathcote Lane Warwick E01031319 600 750 1000 1200
South West Warwick Severn Trent Warwick E01031326 500 500 500 500
Middlemarch Warwick E01031269 250 500 500 500
Former Honiley Airfiled Warwick E01031283 400 700 800 800
Queensway Business Park Warwick E01009642 200 450 450 450
Former Council Depot Warwick E01031317 150 150 150 150
Oldhams Warwick E01031269 147 147 147 147
Combined justice Centre Warwick E01031324 147 147 147 147
Police Headquarters Warwick E01031312 111 111 111 111
Stoneleigh Deer Park Warwick E01031308 50 50 50 50
South West Warwick Capital & Counties Warwick E01031326 50 50 50 50
Land at Nelson Lane Warwick E01031310 87 87 87 87
Common Lane Warwick E01031300 54 54 54 54
North Fosse Farm Warwick E01031301 52 52 52 52
The Piggery Warwick E01031268 0 0 0 0
Park Drive Warwick E01031291 39 39 39 39
Quarry Farm Warwick E01031326 27 27 27 27
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 103 of 109
LLSOA (or closest Low Medium High within Growth Growth Growth High Plus Site District corridor) 2016 2016 2016 2016 Former Fords Foundary Warwick E01031271 0 0 0 250
Land at Queensway Warwick E01031312 0 0 0 250
Total 14030 17355 20025 22955 Source: SQW Consulting
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 104 of 109
APPENDIX E EMPLOYMENT ALLOCATION 2031
The following table presents the employment allocations for each employment site, under the four growth scenarios.
LLSOA (or Lower Medium High closest Growth Growth Growth High Plus within 2031 2031 2031 2031 Site District corridor) Friargate Coventry E01009642 3000 4000 4500 7750
Severn Trent Water Coventry E01009548 1700 1700 1700 1700
Websters/ EMR (Paragon) Coventry E01009573 1200 1750 1750 1750
Belgrade Plaza Coventry E01009642 1000 1000 1000 1000
City Centre Shopping Coventry E01009642 1000 1000 1000 1000
Coventry College (Butts/QCA) Coventry E01009689 900 900 900 900
Prologis Park Coventry E01009590 750 750 750 750
Parkside 2 Coventry E01009548 600 600 811 811
Jaguar Browns Lane Coventry E01009590 500 750 1000 1000
Aldermans Green Phase 2 Coventry E01031099 295 295 295 295
New Century Park Coventry E01009620 250 250 250 250
Edgwick Park Industrial estate (Blue Ribbon) Coventry E01009567 250 250 750 750
Venture Works Coventry E01009626 200 348 348 348
Binley Business Park Coventry E01009532 200 300 350 350
Westwood Business Park Coventry E01009680 150 350 400 400
Far Gosford St Coventry E01009642 100 100 100 100
Holbrook Lane Coventry E01009587 100 200 200 200
Wayside House Coventry E01009589 93 93 93 93
Stoke Aldermoor Coventry E01009611 50 50 50 50
Leofric Business Park Coventry E01009538 0 0 92 92
Land at Well St/ Chapel St/ Bishop St Coventry E01009642 0 0 100 100
Land at Farren Road/ Bodmin/ Clifford Bridge Road Coventry E01009712 0 0 100 100
CU Engineering Coventry E01009642 0 0 250 250
Barwell UEA Hinckley & Bosworth E01025825 650 1000 1200 1400
Dawkins Abbatoir Hinckley & Bosworth E01025818 405 405 405 405
Groby Lodge Farm Hinckley & Bosworth E01025873 268 268 268 268
Sycamore Farm Hinckley & Bosworth E01025818 184 184 184 184
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 105 of 109
LLSOA (or Lower Medium High closest Growth Growth Growth High Plus within 2031 2031 2031 2031 Site District corridor) County Landscape products Hinckley & Bosworth E01025835 184 184 184 184
Jarvis Porter Hinckley & Bosworth E01025851 150 288 288 288
Sunnyside Business Park Hinckley & Bosworth E01025861 109 109 109 109
Derby Road Hinckley & Bosworth E01025851 100 100 184 184
Nutts Lane East Midlands Electricity Site Hinckley & Bosworth E01025853 100 210 210 210
North of Coventry Road Hinckley & Bosworth E01031116 100 200 366 366
Essentia House Hinckley & Bosworth E01025858 74 74 74 74
Pear Tree Farm Hinckley & Bosworth E01025833 60 60 60 147
Wharf Yard Hinckley & Bosworth E01025857 37 37 37 37
Barwell Business Centre Hinckley & Bosworth E01025821 31 31 31 31
Alexandra Stone Works Hinckley & Bosworth E01025873 21 21 21 21
Stoke Industrial Park Hinckley & Bosworth E01025873 21 21 21 21
Station Road Industrial Estate Hinckley & Bosworth E01025818 0 0 0 74
Beveridge Lane industrial Estate Hinckley & Bosworth E01025873 0 93 93 93
Land near Watling Cl Hinckley & Bosworth E01025835 0 0 0 110
Hinckley Fields Industrial Estate Hinckley & Bosworth E01025861 0 0 0 111
Nuneaton & Prologis Park Bedworth E01031076 1000 1200 1450 1600
Nuneaton & Bermuda Park Bedworth E01031050 1000 1250 1500 1700
Nuneaton & Bermuda 1 Bedworth E01031050 330 330 330 330
Nuneaton & Liberty Way Bedworth E01031120 250 345 345 345
Nuneaton & The Moorings Business Park Bedworth E01031099 250 431 431 431
Nuneaton & Hemdale Business Park Bedworth E01031100 250 350 450 450
Nuneaton & Gallagher Park Bedworth E01031076 150 327 327 327
Nuneaton & A444 Bedworth E01031113 115 115 115 115
Nuneaton & King St Bedworth Bedworth E01031064 29 29 29 29
Nuneaton & Seymour Road Bedworth E01031053 0 0 29 29
Nuneaton & Attleborough Bedworth E01031120 0 0 0 366
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 106 of 109
LLSOA (or Lower Medium High closest Growth Growth Growth High Plus within 2031 2031 2031 2031 Site District corridor) Ansty Rugby E01031159 2000 2500 3000 3000
Peugeot Site (ryton) Rugby E01031181 1000 1000 1500 1500
Spa Park Warwick E01031262 1800 2400 2400 2400
Tachbrook Park Warwick E01031319 1800 2500 3000 3500
South Heathcote Lane Warwick E01031319 1600 1750 2000 2500
South West Warwick Severn Trent Warwick E01031326 1500 2000 2500 2500
Middlemarch Warwick E01031269 1150 1150 1150 1150
Former Honiley Airfield Warwick E01031283 1000 1200 1800 2000
Queensway Business Park Warwick E01009642 400 600 600 600
Former Council Depot Warwick E01031317 300 300 300 300
Oldhams Warwick E01031269 147 147 147 147
Combined justice Centre Warwick E01031324 147 147 147 147
Police Headquarters Warwick E01031312 111 111 111 111
Stoneleigh Deer Park Warwick E01031308 100 100 100 100
South West Warwick Capital & Counties Warwick E01031326 100 100 100 100
Land at Nelson Lane Warwick E01031310 87 87 87 87
Common Lane Warwick E01031300 54 54 54 54
North Fosse Farm Warwick E01031301 52 52 52 52
The Piggery Warwick E01031268 50 50 50 50
Park Drive Warwick E01031291 39 39 39 39
Quarry Farm Warwick E01031326 27 27 27 27
Former Fords Foundary Warwick E01031271 0 0 0 550
Land at Queensway Warwick E01031312 0 0 0 550
Total 31670 38662 44694 51542 Source: SQW Consulting
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 107 of 109
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 108 of 109
APPENDIX F BIBLIOGRAPHY
Regeneration Strategies
Coventry City Council, Innovative Coventry: A strategy for growth and transformation – The Economic Development Strategy 2008 – 2013
Coventry, Solihull and Warwickshire Partnership, An Engine of Growth: The Economic Regeneration Strategy for the Coventry, Solihull and Warwickshire Sub-region, 2002
Hinckley and Bosworth Council, Economic Regeneration Strategy 2009-2014
Nuneaton and Bedworth Council, Regeneration Strategy 2003-2008
Employment land Studies
GVA Grimley, Warwick District Employment Land Review – Final Report, April 2009
GVA Grimley, Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough Draft Employment Land Review, October 2009
Hinckley and Bosworth Council, Residential and Employment Land Study, 2009
PACEC, Leicester and Leicestershire HMA Employment Land Study, October 2008
Annual Monitoring Reports
Coventry City Council, Annual Monitoring Review, 2009
Nuneaton and Bedworth Council, Annual Monitoring Report, March 2009
Warwick District Council, Local Development Framework Annual monitoring Report, 2009
Other documentation
Advantage West Midlands, Revised Regional Spatial Strategy, 2008
Coventry City Council, Research Strategy Paper: Coventry’s Economy 1976 to 2026
Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough Council, Local Plan 2006
DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Page 109 of 109