DaSTS – Improving Connectivity in the Coventry North / South Corridor Phase 1 Interim Report - Stage 1 Final Study Report April 2010 DOCUMENT CONTROL SHEET BPP 04 F8 Warwickshire County Council / Client: Coventry City Council Project: DaSTS Coventry North - South Job No: B1405700 Document Title: Stage 1 Study Report Originator Checked by Reviewed by Approved by ORIGINAL NAME NAME NAME NAME Geoff Smith / Barbara Sim Richard Hibbert Mike Jones Stephen Lucas DATE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE January 2010 Document Status: Draft Report ORIGINAL NAME NAME NAME NAME Geoff Smith Barbara Sim Richard Hibbert Mike Jones DATE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE February 2010 Document Status: Revised Draft Final Report ORIGINAL NAME NAME NAME NAME Geoff Smith Barbara Sim Richard Hibbert Mike Jones DATE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE March 2010 Document Status: Final Report ORIGINAL NAME NAME NAME NAME Geoff Smith Barbara Sim Richard Hibbert Mike Jones DATE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE April 2010 Document Status: Final Report DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 This document has been prepared by a division, subsidiary or affiliate of Jacobs Consultancy UK Ltd (“Jacobs Consultancy”) in its professional capacity as consultants in accordance with the terms and conditions of Jacobs Consultancy’s contract with the commissioning party (the “Client”). 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Should the Client wish to release this document to a third party, Jacobs Consultancy may, at its discretion, agree to such release provided that (a) Jacobs Consultancy’s written agreement is obtained prior to such release; and (b) by release of the document to the third party, that third party does not acquire any rights, contractual or otherwise, whatsoever against Jacobs Consultancy and Jacobs Consultancy, accordingly, assumes no duties, liabilities or obligations to that third party; and (c) Jacobs Consultancy accepts no responsibility for any loss or damage incurred by the Client or for any conflict of Jacobs Consultancy’s interests arising out of the Client's release of this document to the third party. DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Economic baseline and Key Travel Patterns The study area runs North / South between Warwick / Leamington and Hinckley, via Coventry and Nuneaton and Bedworth. The population of 672,800 compares with Glasgow and Sheffield. Almost half live in Coventry, 22% in Warwick, 18.1% in Nuneaton and Bedworth and 15.5% in Hinckley and Bosworth. The corridor has experienced a significant decline in employment. 4.5% of the working age population claim Job Seekers Allowance (JSA), which compares reasonably with the region (5.2%) and national average (3.9%). However, some wards in north Coventry and Nuneaton and Bedworth have as many as 18% claiming JSA. In 2008 there were 293,700 employees in the corridor, an increase of 1.4 percentage points (pp) from 2002. However, there is significant variation from an increase of 11pp in Warwick to a decrease of 5.5pp in Coventry. 42.7% of employees work in ‘higher end’ occupations (management, professional and technical work) with the highest proportion in Warwick (50.9%). The other districts have greater numbers in lower value added employment. A quarter of people work in the distribution, hotels and restaurant sector and a quarter in the public administration, education and health sector. Manufacturing employment is still substantial at 13%, but has decreased by 30% since 2002, while employment in the banking, finance and insurance sector has increased by a similar amount. In terms of Drivers of Productivity, Warwick out-performs the other districts on most criteria and Nuneaton and Bedworth under-performs on most criteria. Coventry performs well on investment and innovation but less well in terms of enterprise. Hinckley and Bosworth under-performs in terms of enterprise and investment. Average earnings in Coventry and Warwick are above the national average but earnings are substantially lower elsewhere. There are substantial differences between residence based and workplace based earnings - those working in Coventry earn more than the average Coventry resident, in Nuneaton and Bedworth the position is reversed. This provides an incentive to commute to access better paid work. 80% of residents work in the corridor. The top three destinations of the 62,900 people who leave the corridor for work are Rugby, Birmingham and Leicester. The top three origins of those commuting into the corridor are Stratford-on-Avon, Rugby and Solihull. Residents of Hinckley, South Leamington, Central Nuneaton and Central Coventry, make between 20% and 30% of work trips on foot or by cycle. Elsewhere walking or cycling use is, between 7% and 18%. The proportions using bus and rail is highest (between 7% and 18%) in the central and northern part of the corridor and much lower in Warwick, Leamington and below 4% in Kenilworth and the rural areas. Both the numbers and percentage using public transport increases closer to Coventry City Centre reaching 13% mode share in the corridors close to Coventry City Centre. The population in the corridor is expected to increase in the period up to 2030, with the greatest increases in the 65+ age group. The RSS indicates that of 64,700 new dwellings to be built in the period to 2026, 40% will be in Coventry, 22% each in Warwick and Nuneaton and Bedworth and 14% in Hinckley and Bedworth. DaSTS Coventry North South Connectivity, Stage 1 Report, April 2010 Baseline growth from the Cambridge Economics Local Economic Forecasting Model indicated that employment will fall by around 8,000 between 2007 and 2016 but then increase to around 304,900. ‘Moderate’, ‘high’ and ‘very high’ economic growth scenarios depend on take-up of the identified employment sites. The number of jobs in the corridor by 2031 could be as high as 356,500 (an increase of 54,000 from 2007). Journeys most important to the economy For journeys to work, the important journey destinations currently are: • Coventry: City Centre and industrial ring outside the ring road; • Bedworth, Leamington and Nuneaton Centres; • Walsgrave Hospital, Warwick University and Westwood Business park, and; • ‘Out of centre’ sites around Coventry particularly to the south and west. The strategic highway network provides access to the freight trip generators and attractors. The highest flows are on the M6 and also to the west on the A46 and A45. Other notable flows are on the A444 and B4113 (Foleshill Road) between Coventry and Nuneaton. The rail network provides for strategic north-south and east-west freight and there are significant East – West movements between the West Midland and London / SE England on the strategic highway and rail network through the corridor. Shopping trips are made to the traditional centres of Coventry, Nuneaton, Leamington, and Bedworth and new shopping centres such as at Foleshill. Warwick and Kenilworth Castles attract substantial numbers of visitors and Coventry City Centre also has a number of important visitor attractions. Travel Conditions Inhibiting Growth Consultations were undertaken with organisations representing the service, manufacturing, distribution and public sectors. Most stated that transportation and accessibility was a concern / serious concern. However, the corridor is well-served by transport routes and congestion problems relate to the local roads especially arterial roads into Coventry. Poor public transport to out of town sites results in car dependence for commuting, adding to congestion and parking problems. Key congestion sites identified were predominantly the major intersections with the motorway network and the arterial and main orbital roads around Coventry. In addition to predictable delays, severe and unpredictable congestion occurs when incidents on the motorway cause strategic traffic to be diverted onto the local network. This is a major worry, due to moves towards ‘just in time’ ordering and deadline penalties. Modelling work confirms this. The 2008 model shows that there are already capacity problems in Nuneaton Centre, in Coventry on the A45 (at the junctions with the radial routes), at the Binley Road / Allard Way junction, at the Coventry Ring Road / London Road junction, at the Walsgrave Road / Sky Blue Way junction and numerous other locations along the radial routes. In 2031 delays at all these junctions will increase, with major problems developing on the A45 / A46, and on Ansty Road close to Walsgrave Hospital.