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ATLANTA Q4 2017 | Multifamily

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ATLANTA Q4 2017 | Multifamily Research & Forecast Report ATLANTA Q4 2017 | Multifamily Atlanta’s fundamentals remain Market Indicators ATL ATL Relative to prior period Q4 2017 Q1 2018* strong as new supply reaches VACANCY a peak RENTS CONCESSIONS Key Takeaways TRANSACTIONS > Atlanta’s Employment Growth: 68,300 jobs added; 3.2% growth vs. PRICE PER UNIT national avg. 2.1% CAP RATES > Annual Rent Growth: Atlanta, 3.0%; National, 2.6% *Projected > Atlanta Ranks #2 in transaction volume with $6.5 billion in 2017 > Atlanta Beltline: 22-mile connectivity of rail, trail, parks and new Historical Apartment Rents & Occupancy development $1400 > Amazon HQ2: Atlanta ranked among top 20 markets to host new Amazon’s $1300 $5B HQ2 $1200 The Atlanta apartment market continues to show solid market $1100 $1000 fundamentals and strong economic growth. The metro area is one of $900 the fastest growing in the nation, with its live-work-play lifestyle and $800 favorable business climate attracting young professionals, as well as $700 Rent Mo Effective national and international capital, while keeping rental demand strong. $600 $500 Atlanta’s robust economy continues to be driven by trade, transportation and professional and business services which outperformed other 96% sectors adding 30,500 jobs in the 12 months ending in September 2017. 95% Atlanta has added a total of 68,300 jobs in the same period, up 3.2% 94% and well above the national average of 2.1%. Atlanta metro is home to 93% 15-Fortune 500 companies, benefiting from an educated workforce, 92% 91% extensive infrastructure and business-friendly climate. Atlanta, with no % Occupancy plans of slowing down, has more than 70 projects under construction 90% or planned, mostly located in top-tier submarkets inside the Perimeter 89% and northern Atlanta suburbs. One of the most notable developments in recent years, is the redevelopment of the 22-mile Beltline railway- US ATLANTA Source: AXIOMetrics which is in the process of constructing housing, parks, efforts toward sustainability, transit, health and urban revitalization. The Atlanta Beltline, while creating economic growth inside the Perimeter, also serves in an Atlanta Multifamily Market (continued) effort to tackle the affordable housing issue, which will continue high. Northern suburbs, especially those near major employment to be a significant challenge in the future. hubs, continue to thrive and will likely dive future rent growth. As traffic congestion and long work commutes continues to worsen, While there remains bifurcation between inner-perimeter rent growth near transit oriented development will become more submarkets and submarkets south of the city, the performance relevant. gap has narrowed, as elevated construction volumes limit increases inside the Perimeter and some lower tier submarkets OCCUPANCY have gained momentum. Lower-tier apartments have had Occupancy reported 94.0% in 4th quarter 2017, down 0.4 points a resurgence as investors seek better returns in areas near year-over-year. Since the great recession, Atlanta has typically Downtown and Outside the Perimeter. experienced strong demand exceeding new supply, therefore SUPPLY bolstering occupancy. However, occupancy across all product classes diminished in the beginning of 2017. Elevated new supply Most new supply has remained concentrated inside the Perimeter levels have weighed Class A occupancy in recent quarters, while and northern submarkets. Inventory has expanded at an average Class C inventory has tightened. A similar trend was seen among rate of 1.9% over the past three years, as annual completions submarkets, as areas with the least construction activity posted range from roughly 7,700 units to 14,000 units. During 2017, occupancy above most high-supply markets. Over the next year, a total of 13,980 units were added, growing inventory 2.9%. new completions will continue to test the underlying strength in Among the major metropolitan cities, Atlanta ranks 6th in the healthier submarkets located inside the Perimeter. total number of completions, behind New York, Houston, Dallas, Seattle and Nashville. Deliveries have been and should continue CAPITAL MARKETS to be largely focused inside the Perimeter, primarily Midtown Transaction volumes in Atlanta remain among the highest in the and Buckhead, but as costs continue to increase, new supply will country. The dollar volume of apartment deals totaled nearly $7.5 slowly shift further south and outside the Perimeter. billion in 2017. Atlanta is second, behind New York in transaction DEMAND volume. A total of 247 multifamily transactions took place in Atlanta over the past year, third most nationally, ranking it as the most The Atlanta apartment demand remains robust, as annual active market regionally. The average cap rate reported 6.2% in absorption has been between 8,200 and 12,400 units in 15 of 2017, down 10 basis-points year-over-year. Still, Atlanta remains the past 16 quarters. Most of the demand performances during affordable compared to other large, primary markets. The average the same period were in line with or above the five-year annual price per unit in Atlanta was about $105,000, roughly $17,000 less average of roughly 9,300 units. Demand over the past three than the South region average. years appears strongest among new supply and older, lower- tiered units. Atlanta boasts low costs of labor and land, great infrastructure and advanced manufacturing and distribution, as well as the presence of a young, educated workforce and lower Metro Atlanta Population Overview cost of living. Being less expensive than other major metros, 7 Atlanta is equipped to withstand future rent increases, as only 6 lower-paid residents in need of affordable housing are affected by the current rent hikes. 5 (millions) RENT 4 Annual rent growth levels remain significantly above historical 3 Population norms, registering between 4% to 7% over the past four years. Total 2 However, performances have recently dropped out of that range as supply volumes have risen. Still, the 3.0% rent increase during 1 2017 placed well above the national average (2.6%). Class C 0 product has seen improved momentum over the last three years 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 as Class A has remained solid. Submarkets inside the Perimeter Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Moody’s Analytics have experienced slightly slowed growth as construction remains 2 Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2017 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International Metro Atlanta Housing Permit Activity Notable Atlanta Job Relocations 18,000 > Technology firm Featurespace has picked midtown Atlanta 16,000 for its North American headquarters. The Cambridge, 14,000 England-based firm, which leased 7,000 square feet at 12,000 Midtown’s Bank of America Plaza, develops machine- Issued learning software to help financial institutions spot fraud. 10,000 Permits Featurespace sells its software to banks and payment 8,000 processors. Clients include Atlanta, Ga-based Worldpay 6,000 and Columbus, Ga- based Total System Services Inc. Multifamily 4,000 Featurespace has 250 employees and is a world-leader in 2,000 Adaptive Behavioural Analytics. 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* > Management and IT consulting firm CapTech is expanding in Atlanta – a year after opening its office in Midtown. Source: U.S. Census Bureau *as of December 2017 The Richmond, Va-based company plans to double its workforce in Atlanta and add 50 jobs next year. As part of the expansion, CapTech has leased 6,000 square feet at Midtown’s Bank of America Plaza office tower. Metro Atlanta Employment Overview > Atlanta made the shortlist of contenders for Amazon HQ2, 150.0 123.6 including other regional competitors, Miami and Dallas. Atlanta is considered the favorite to land the 8 million square 100.0 89.1 85.7 78.7 69.6 66.1 foot, $5 billion headquarters because it is a major population 60.0 49.0 50.0 42.6 center with access to a globally connected airport. The city 30.1 35.6 also has a burgeoning logistics and tech industry. (thousands) 0.0 ‐22.9 ‐27.1 ‐20.9 ‐50.0 Added/Lost Jobs ‐100.0 ‐150.0 ‐136.1 Source: US Dept. of Labor Statistics/Moody’s Analytics *as of December 2017 Metro Atlanta Employment Comparison Y-O-Y Y-O-Y UNEMPLOYMENT METRO AREA RANK EMPLOYMENT PERCENT RATE Dallas-Fort Worth 1 100,400 2.8% 3.2% New York/NNJ 2 89,300 0.9% 4.3% Boston 3 60,300 2.2% 3.0% Atlanta 4 56,000 2.1% 4.2% Miami 5 52,000 2.0% 4.1% Los Angeles 6 50,700 0.8% 3.8% DC-Arlington 7 48,900 1.5% 3.6% Houston 8 48,500 1.6% 4.3% Seattle 9 47,900 2.4% 4.1% Riverside-CA 10 46,800 3.2% 4.1% Phoenix 11 45,200 2.2% 3.7% Minneapolis 12 41,600 2.1% 2.4% U.S. Total 2,301,000 1.6% 4.1% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Metro Level Data November 2017(p) Average, not Seasonally Adjusted 3 Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2017 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International UPDATE - Recent Transactions in the Market Notable Sales Activity PROPERTY SUBMARKET SALES DATE SALE PRICE SIZE (UNITS) PRICE / UNIT BUYER The Local on 14th Midtown 11/17/2017 $86,500,000 360 $240,278 50 East 69th Street Corp. Millworks Buckhead 11/21/2017 $80,000,000 345 $231,884 Continental Realty Corp. The Office Apartments Downtown 1/02/2018 $78,100,000 327 $238,838 CF Real Estate Services Sugarloaf Summit Northeast Atlanta 10/24/2017 $76,000,000 378 $201,058 Principal Global Investors Station R Downtown 12/5/2017 $71,050,000 285 $249,298 Gaia Real Estate Heights at Sugarloaf Northeast Atlanta 10/25/2017 $71,000,000 363 $215,152 Starlight Investments The Reserve at Decatur Decatur 11/7/2017 $66,752,000 298 $224,000 The Praedium Group Parc at Perimeter Central Perimeter 11/9/2017 $64,000,000 298 $214,765 Olen Commercial The Palmer Northwest Atlanta 11/30/2017 $62,300,000 502 $124,104 McDowell Properties The Park on Windy Hill Northwest Atlanta 11/15/2017 $61,000,000 654 $93,272 Wilkinson Corporation Source: CoStar Comps *allocated Historical Investment Volume & Cap Rates ATLANTA MULTIFAMILY 10 8.0% Atlanta apartment investment 9 volume ended the year a total 7.5% Billions 8 of $7.5 billion in transaction 7 7.0% volume.
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