August 21, 2020 Volume 4, No
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
This issue brought to you by The Election in the Mirror is Closer than it Appears By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin AUGUST 21, 2020 VOLUME 4, NO. 16 This election cycle, and even just this year, has been filled with multiple historic events: the impeachment of a president, a global pandemic, near economic collapse, a national conversation about racism 2020 Senate Ratings in America, and the first Black woman on a presidential ticket. Through it all, this has remained one of the most stable presidential races in recent Toss-Up memory. Collins (R-Maine) Ernst (R-Iowa) Former Vice President Joe Biden continues to have a distinct Daines (R-Mont.) Tillis (R-N.C.) advantage over President Donald Trump in the race for the White Tilt Democratic Tilt Republican House. Confidence in that analysis comes from the depth and breadth of the date. Biden not only leads Trump in the national polls, but in the Gardner (R-Colo.) Perdue (R-Ga.) individual battleground states that will decide the Electoral College. McSally (R-Ariz.) And Trump continues to struggle to reach his 2016 performance in key Lean Democratic Lean Republican congressional districts around the country. Peters (D-Mich.) KS Open (Roberts, R) Nearly four years later, the 2016 presidential election result looms over any political projection. But Trump’s victory should be a lesson in Cornyn (R-Texas) probability rather than a call to ignore data. We should reject the false Loeffl er (R-Ga.) choice between following the data and being open-minded about less Jones (D-Ala.) likely results. Likely Democratic Likely Republican If the election were held today, the most likely result would be Biden Graham (R-S.C.) getting elected president, Democrats gaining control of the Senate and Democrats expanding their majority in the House. Sullivan (R-Alaska) While it’s certainly possible for the president’s standing to improve, Solid Democratic Solid Republican that scenario would more likely involve a gradual increase in his support NM Open (Udall, D) TN Open (Alexander, R) than a single event causing a spike in his approval rating. And Trump is Booker (D-N.J.) WY Open (Enzi, R) running out of time. Coons (D-Del.) Cassidy (R-La.) Republicans don’t have until November 3 to improve their standing. By Election Day, tens of millions of voters will have already made Durbin (D-Ill.) Capito (R-W.Va.) their decision and cast their ballot. That’s a fundamental problem with Markey (D-Mass.) Cotton (R-Ark.) Republicans putting their hope in Biden self-destructing during a mid- Merkley (D-Ore.) Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) October debate or a coronavirus vaccine coming online by Halloween. Reed (D-R.I.) Inhofe (R-Okla.) If Trump’s standing improves by a handful of points, even without Shaheen (D-N.H.) McConnell (R-Ky.) a dramatic event, it may not be enough to get him a second term but it Smith (D-Minn.) Risch (R-Idaho) could be enough to keep the Senate in GOP hands for another two years. Warner (D-Va.) Rounds (R-S.D.) The certainty of the election is in the implementation. There will be days of counting ballots after Election Day intertwined with days of GOP DEM Sasse (R-Neb.) litigation over which ballots should be counted. While it might be messy 116th Congress 53 47 GOP DEM and chaotic, it’s important that we get the process right. Not up this cycle 30 35 115th Congress 51 49 Because no matter which party wins, it will be extremely difficult for Not up this cycle 42 23 Currently Solid 11 10 the country to move forward in a meaningful way, to legislate, to handle Currently Solid 4 18 Competitive 12 2 a pandemic, or to confront systemic issues, if Americans can’t agree on Competitive 5 8 Takeovers in Italics, # moved benefi ting Democrats, * moved benefi ting Republicans the legitimacy of the elections. InsideElections.com Senate Report Shorts Alabama. Doug Jones (D), elected 2017 special (50%). The senator was part of the Democrats’ primetime lineup on the first night of their national convention, further evidence that Jones is not shying away 2020 Presidential Ratings 2020 Presidential Ratings from his partisan label. Even though Trump should win Alabama (Electoral Votes) (Electoral Votes) handily, Democrats know Jones’ path to victory has more to do with Toss-Up (32) Toss-Up (66) historic Black turnout than persuading Republicans. Republicans have had to spend money helping former Auburn head football coach Georgia (16) Maine 2nd (1) North Carolina (15) Arizona (11)# Florida (29) Nebraska 2nd (1) North Carolina (15) Tommy Tuberville, considering he finished the GOP runoff about $8 Tilt Democratic (51) Tilt Republican (62) Wisconsin (10) million behind Jones in available campaign cash. Tuberville still has the Arizona (11) Nebraska 2nd (1) Iowa (6) Texas (38) Tilt Democratic (36) Tilt Republican (1) advantage in the race, but if Democratic turnout reaches new heights and Florida (29) Wisconsin (10) Ohio (18) Michigan (16) Pennsylvania (20) Maine 2nd (1) Texas (38)# Jones can effectively paint the former coach as a Florida man running in Alabama, the senator might have a shot. Lean Republican. Lean Democratic (40) Lean Republican (6) Lean Democratic (14) Lean Republican (22) Morning Consult, July 24- Aug. 2 (LVs) — General Election ballot: New Hampshire (4) Pennsylvania (20) Alaska (3) Montana (3) Minnesota (10)* New Hampshire (4) Georgia (16)# Iowa (6) Tuberville over Jones 52% - 35%. Michigan (16) Likely Democratic (8) Likely Republican (56) Likely Democratic (16) Likely Republican (31) Maine At-Large (2) Nevada (6)# Ohio (18) Arizona. Martha McSally (R), appointed Jan. 2019. Both parties agree that former astronaut Mark Kelly, the Democratic nominee, leads Minnesota (10) Kansas (6) South Carolina (9) Solid Democratic (210) Solid Republican (125) the senator, even though they disagree on the margin. Republicans are Nevada (6) Missouri (10) Utah (6) California (55) Rhode Island (4) Alabama (9) North Dakota (3) encouraged that they believe some of their attacks on Kelly, specifically Solid Democratic (212) Solid Republican (88) Colorado (9) Vermont (3) Alaska (3) Oklahoma (7) his business connections to China, are starting to chip away at his image. California (55) New Mexico (5) Alabama (9) South Dakota (3) Connecticut (7) Virginia (13) Arkansas (6) South Carolina (9) Democrats point out that McSally still has problems consolidating GOP voters and Biden is still running strong at the top of the ticket. The race Colorado (9) New York (29) Arkansas (6) Tennessee (11) Delaware (3) Washington (12) Idaho (4) South Dakota (3) isn’t over but McSally is still the underdog. Tilt Democratic. Connecticut (7) Oregon (7) Idaho (4) West Virginia (5) D.C. (3) Indiana (11) Tennessee (11) Emerson College, Aug. 8-10 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Kelly over Delaware (3) Rhode Island (4) Indiana (11) Wyoming (3) Hawaii (4) Kansas (6) Utah (6) McSally 52% - 41%. D.C. (3) Vermont (3) Kentucky (8) Illinois (20) Kentucky (8) West Virginia (5) Change Research (D) for CNBC, Aug. 7-9 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Hawaii (4) Virginia (13) Louisiana (8) Maine 1st (1) Louisiana (8) Wyoming (3) Kelly over McSally 49% - 43%. OnMessage Inc. (R) for Heritage Action, Aug. 2-4 (LVs) — General Election Illinois (20) Washington (12) Mississippi (6) Maryland (10) Mississippi (6) ballot: McSally and Kelly tied at 48%. Maine At-Large (2) Nebraska At-Large (2) Massachusetts (11) Missouri (10) Maine 1st (1) Nebraska 1st (1) New Jersey (14) Montana (3) Cory Gardner (R), elected 2014 (48%). The first-term Colorado. Maryland (10) Nebraska 3rd (1) New Mexico (5) Nebraska At-Large (2) Republican continues to be the most endangered GOP senator this cycle. Despite millions of dollars in ads hammering his opponent, Massachusetts (11) North Dakota (3) New York (29) Nebraska 1st (1) former 2020 presidential candidate John Hickenlooper over an ethics New Jersey (14) Oklahoma (7) Oregon (7) Nebraska 3rd (1) issue, Gardner has been unable to pull himself back to even with the 270 needed to win GOP DEM 270 needed to win GOP DEM former governor. He’s not helped by Trump’s struggles at the top of the 2016 Results 304 227 2016 Results 304 227 ticket, where the president is nowhere near matching his 5-point defeat # moved benefi ting Democrats, # moved benefi ting Democrats, in 2016 and is on track to lose by double-digits. Republicans are hoping 2020 Ratings 187 319 2020 Ratings 204 268 that Gardner’s role in passing The Great American Outdoors Act, * moved benefi ting Republicans Toss-up 32 * moved benefi ting Republicans Toss-up 66 which permanently funded the Land and Water Conservation Fund, Continued on page 3 Stuart Rothenberg @InsideElections Senior Editor [email protected] facebook.com/InsideElections Ryan Matsumoto Bradley Wascher Contributing Analyst Contributing Analyst [email protected] [email protected] Nathan L. Gonzales Jacob Rubashkin Robert Yoon Will Taylor Editor & Publisher Reporter & Analyst Contributing Reporter & Analyst Production Artist [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] @nathanlgonzales @jacobrubashkin 810 7th Street NE • Washington, DC 20002 • 202-546-2822 Copyright 2020, Inside Elections LLC. All rights reserved. 2 August 21, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Continued from page 2 Iowa. Joni Ernst (R), elected 2014 (51%). This is shaping up to be one will provide him a lifeline, but with voters so sour on Trump, it likely of the closest and most competitive races in the country. But considering won’t be enough. Tilt Democratic. Trump won Iowa by 9 points in 2016, it’s indicative of the president’s Morning Consult, July 17-26 (LVs) — General Election ballot: Hickenlooper (and the GOP’s) problems nationwide.