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Solidere| 7, 2016 1 | EQUITY RESEARCH | REAL ESTATEOctober – SOLIDERE| 7, 2016 1 Equity Research - Solidere Recommendation: MARKETWEIGHT Sector: Real Estate Target Price: ↓ USD 10.00 Country: Lebanon Reduce forecasts and target price as softer real estate market continues to weigh on land sales limiting capacity to increase earnings and cash flow generation particularly as contribution from JV/associates wanes. Stagnation in real estate market amid discouraging investment climate with some signs of recovery outside Beirut. Number of real estate transactions increased by +4% YoY reaching 29,988 transactions in June 2016 from 28,722 transactions in June 2015 while total value of real estate transactions rose +14% YoY amounting to USD 4 billion in the first half of 2016. Area of construction permits reached 6,409,383 sqm by June 2016, +7% YoY from 5,960,068 sqm in June 2015. Improvement in construction activity was reflected by higher volumes of cement deliveries which increased by +10% YoY in June 2016. However, real estate activity in the high-end market showed no sign of reversal in domestic and foreign investor appetite, as demand from GCC nationals and wealthy Lebanese expatriates, the prime clientele of luxurious apartments in Beirut, remains hesitant. Foreign investors accounted for 1.6% of total real estate transactions by June 2016, down from 2.3% in June 2015 with market dynamics shifting towards increasing demand from Lebanese residents for smaller units in less expensive residential areas outside Beirut. Listed prices relatively stable in the high-end segment although below previous levels as foreign appetite cools. Real estate prices remain roughly similar to their 2015 level despite market showing signs of oversupply as contribution from GCC investors and Lebanese expats declines amid political uncertainty and economic slowdown. As a result, market reports show that discounts reaching up to 15% are being granted in later stages of negotiations to stimulate reluctant demand with developer margins being pressured in order to secure sales. BDL extended its stimulus package in an effort to support housing demand through more affordable lending, yet these measures should not boost activity in the high-end segment as it is exempted from these loans. In the BCD, the more expensive units are located in the waterfront where starting prices are in the USD 6,000-7,500/sqm range vs. USD 4,500-6,000/sqm in the traditional area including Saifi Village, Wadi Abou Jamil, Mina El Hosn and Martyr Square, below their pre-2015 levels. Expect YoY improvement in revenue from recognition of previously deferred land sales and growth in rental income to a lesser extent. Revenues from land sales are expected to remain the main driver of earnings despite stagnation in the domestic real estate market. Solidere gross revenues expected to improve to an estimated USD 215.4 million (vs. USD 91.3 million) mainly from recognition of previously completed land sales in the waterfront and traditional areas in addition to new sales in the waterfront area. We expect a slight increase in rental income to USD 59.5 million (vs. USD 57.0 million) as contribution from North Souks development increases, including the Cineplex, food court, entertainment center and recently completed L-Building. Revenues from rendered services are expected at USD 7.2 million, slightly above 2015 level while revenues from hospitality continue to wind down. Net revenues are expected at USD 153.8 million in 2016e (vs. USD 55.4 million in 2015) with margins estimated at 71%, above 2015 level of 61%. Lower expected provisions and cost containment efforts help weather tough selling environment amid unfavorable contribution from JV/ associates. We expect higher net profit for 2016e at USD 75.5 million (vs. USD 87.2 million loss in 2015) with EPS at USD 0.46 (vs. USD -0.53 in 2015) as 2015 earnings were weighed by significant provisioning which is not expected in 2016 despite rising credit quality concerns. Estimated core EBITDA margin at 55% in 2016e, increasing from 23% in 2015 on core EBITDA at USD 118.3 million in 2016e (vs. USD 20.9 million in 2015). We expect SG&A as percent of gross revenues at ~16.5% in 2016e (vs. 37.7% in 2015) from higher top line but also amid efforts at containing costs namely through headcount reduction to a lesser extent. Capex in the medium term will be allocated to the completion of the waterfront’s underground utility network (~USD 130.0 million) and the department store (~USD 55.0 million) while other infrastructure projects are deferred as part of the firm’s strategy to manage cash flows. We expect unfavorable contribution from Solidere International (associate) and Beirut Waterfront (JV) to the group’s results as challenging investment environment in GCC weighs on revaluation of SI funds while difficult macro/tourism situation impacts BWD results. Despite weak 2015 results and uncertain outlook for property market, the Company approved a dividend distribution for the year 2015 which we believe will pressure Solidere’s balance sheet in the short-term (USD 0.10 for each Solidere A or Solidere B share as well as one Solidere A or Solidere B share for every eighty shares. Ex-dividend date: July 14, 2016; record date: July 18, 2016; payment date: October 3, 2016). We reiterate our cautious view on Solidere for the short term amid stagnation in real estate market trends and less favorable revenue mix. We maintain our recommendation at Marketweight and reduce our target price to USD 10.00 from USD 11.00. We reiterate our cautious view on Solidere shares despite expected pickup from 2015 results, on concerns that political and macroeconomic factors impacting the property market will likely persist in the near-term particularly as land sales remain the key earnings driver given disappointing attempts at revenue diversification. Longer term, we still recognize unlocked value in Solidere for patient investors from a rebound in land sales and the completion of the real estate pipeline once domestic/regional pressure eases and investor sentiment improves as we believe Solidere shares represent a vote of confidence on Lebanon. We maintain our recommendation at Marketweight and revise our fair value estimate to USD 10.00 from USD 11.00 previously, derived using a sum of the parts approach implying a P/B of 0.9x based on our 2016e estimated BVPS, in line with its historical and current EM R/E peers. SOL A 1 year Share Performance Share Price Information Key Financial Highlights Market cap. 1,590.40 In USD millions 2015a 2016e 2017e Shares outstanding 165.0 million Revenues 91.3 215.4 159.4 Dividend yield 1.0% Core EBITDA 20.9 118.3 70.2 ∆ 1M +4.7% Net income -87.2 75.5 35.9 ∆ 3M -0.3% EPS (USD) -0.53 0.46 0.22 ∆ YTD -13.6% P/E -17.9 20.8 44.0 ∆ 12M -5.0% P/B 0.80 0.78 0.76 52-Week range 8.04 -11.83 EV/Core EBITDA 101.67 18.36 30.75 Source: BSE, Company reports, FFA Private Bank estimates, Note: Solidere A shares are priced as of October 7, 2016 | EQUITY RESEARCH | REAL ESTATE – SOLIDERE| 2 SOLIDERE Company Description The Lebanese Company for the Development and Reconstruction of Beirut Central District otherwise known as Solidere is the largest private real estate player in Lebanon in terms of assets with an asset base at USD 2.9 billion at the end of 2015 and a 1.72 million sqm BUA land bank left in the BCD (of which ~75% in the waterfront and ~25% in traditional). Solidere was established in 1994 with the purpose to redevelop the BCD and its mandate was extended until 2029. The Company’s business model is primarily based on revenues from land sales and the strategy is to strengthen revenues from recurring sources of which include rental income and rendered services. The last two years showed an average contribution of land sales to total revenues at ~50% compared to ~70%+ in the previous five-year period as a result of decelerating land sales activity. Solidere shares are listed and traded on the Beirut Stock Exchange (stock symbol: SOLA, SOLB) and its GDRs on the London Stock Exchange (stock symbol: SLED). Solidere Key Consolidated Financial Highlights in H1/16 Net profit at USD 72.1 million in H1/16 from rebound in land sales and lower provisioning despite losses from JV/associates Gross revenues increased +177% YoY to USD 160.7 million in H1/16 from: i) USD 128.9 million in land sales ii) USD 27.9 million in rental income and iii) USD 3.8 million from rendered services and hospitality combined. Revenues from land sales amounted to USD 128.9 million in H1/16 with a total of ~43,000 sqm, mainly from the recognition of previously completed sales in the waterfront and traditional areas. Slight decrease in rental revenues -1% YoY to USD 27.9 million with a contribution to gross revenues at 17%. SG&A cost decreased YoY to USD 17.6 million from USD 18.7 million in H1/15 representing 11% of gross revenues down from 32%, in line with Solidere’s cost reduction strategy. Losses of JV/associates at USD -5.7 million from profit of USD 17.3 million in H1/15, on weaker results from activities of Beirut Waterfront Development and Solidere International. Net profit at USD 72.1 million in H1/16 partly from lower provisions for impairment (other provisions included for other debit balances, contingencies and receivables). Net debt levels declined to USD 524.4 million in H1/16 from USD 552.2 million in 2015 from improvement in operating cash flows and partial sale of asset-backed securities.
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