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Table of Contents Table of Contents SOLIDERE Current Price: SOLA USD 15.29; SOLB USD 15.16 Equity Research September 23rd, 2011 Target Price: USD 22.00 Sector: Real Estate Recommendation: OVERWEIGHT Country: Lebanon Share Data Investing For The Longer Term To Reward Patient Investors Largest real estate master developer in Lebanon Listing (Class A & B shares): Beirut Stock Exchange Created in 1994 for the purpose of reconstructing the Beirut City Center, Solidere emerged as a Ticker symbol: SOLA; SOLB prominent player in the Lebanese real estate market, providing quality property and infrastructure and Listing GDRs: London Stock Exchange transforming the Beirut Central District (BCD) into a thriving downtown area of the Capital. Solidere is also Ticker symbol: SLED responsible to reclaim land and develop it into a Waterfront District with two marinas and is engaged in Market capitalization*: USD 2,522.9 million real estate development outside Lebanon through its associate Solidere International. Number of common shares: 165.0 million 12-month average daily volume: 37,660 Revenue diversification strategy to offset the depletion of the land bank Solidere as a master developer with a sizeable land bank has traditionally focused on land sales in the BCD with 88% of revenues generated from land sales in 2010. In light of the expected depletion of its land bank over the next 15 years, the Company’s focus is to secure additional revenue streams through: i) the development of a real estate portfolio in view of strengthening rental income ii) property management Share Price Information* and services and, iii) contribution from Solidere International. Improved financial performance in 2010 and encouraging land bank signings despite challenging Δ YTD -17.5% macroeconomic and real estate conditions Δ 1M -4.9% In 2010, Solidere recognized revenues of USD 382 million resulting mainly from land sales which were Δ 3M -13.7% realized from previous years by drawing on its sales backlog. The Company’s EBITDA and net profits Δ 12M -20.4% totaled USD 226 million and USD 196 million, respectively. Into 2011e, the softer economic and real 52-Week range USD 15.11 – 20.40 estate market conditions amid growing political uncertainties did not deter Solidere from intensifying negotiations regarding the waterfront area. The Company signed two land sales valued at USD 50 million each and expects to close few more by end of the year, which contrasts with the lack of any selling activity for over a year. Share Price Performance (In USD) We expect upcoming investments to build longer term shareholder returns but put a strain on cash flows in the near future 22 In the shorter term, we expect the Company will have to invest around USD 500 million to complete the 20 infrastructure mainly related to the waterfront district, to fund its real estate developments, as well as its working capital requirements in order to facilitate operations. These capital-intensive years will likely 18 drive Solidere to increase borrowings to bridge shortfalls and to finance its dividend program. However, 16 starting 2013e we expect the cash position to improve as land selling momentum intensifies and funding requirements subside. In 2013e, we expect Solidere to generate USD 492 million, USD 356 million and 14 USD 301 million in revenues, EBITDA and net profits respectively corresponding to 72.4% and 16.5% in Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 EBITDA margins and ROE respectively. We like Solidere’s longer term outlook as land sales drive solid margins, profitability and cash flows, *Solidere A shares as of market close on September 23rd 2011. however are concerned in the shorter term as Solidere continues its capital intensive program against an uncertain economic and political backdrop influencing the real estate market We recognize Solidere’s position in its domestic market as the prime land owner and master developer in the Beirut Central District (BCD), its strong track record in developing superior quality properties and infrastructure, and its revenue diversification strategy to counterbalance the depletion of its land bank. Key Performance Indicators We like the firm’s high operating margins, relatively low levels of indebtedness, and are encouraged by In USD millions 2010a 2011e 2012e 2013e recent land signings on the Waterfront area despite softer macroeconomic and real estate conditions. While upcoming investments are expected to strain cash flows in the short term, we expect the cash Revenues 382 258 189 492 position to improve starting 2013e as the real estate cycle improves driving land sales and funding EBITDA 226 146 97 356 requirements subside, translating into favorable returns for long-term investors. Net income 196 128 82 301 EPS 1.28 0.84 0.54 1.98 We rate Solidere shares at Overweight with a fair value estimate of USD 22.00 per share P/E 11.9 18.3 28.5 7.7 Based on our revised forecasts and updated valuation, our fair value estimate is USD 22.00 per share, P/B 1.27 1.28 1.33 1.23 which implies a P/B of 1.8x, a P/E of 17.1x, and an EV/EBITDA of 10.7x. We accordingly assign an Overweight recommendation given that the current price is at a discount of more than 10% to our fair EV/EBITDA 12.9 20.1 30.1 8.2 value estimate. Contacts: Disclaimer: Head of Research: Nadim Kabbara, CFA This document has been issued by FFA Private Bank for informational purposes only. This document is not an [email protected] +961 1 985 195 offer or a solicitation to buy or sell the securities mentioned. Although FFA Private Bank s.a.l. makes reasonable Analyst: Raya Freyha efforts to provide accurate information and projections, certain statements in this document constitute TABLE OF CONTENTS [email protected] +961 1 985 195 forward-looking statements or statements which may be deemed or construed to be forward-looking Sales and Trading,TABLE FFA Private OF BankCONTENTS (Beirut) statements. These forward-looking statements involve, and are subject to known and unknown risks, +961 1 985 225 uncertainties and other factors which could cause the actual results, performance (financial or operating) or Sales and Trading, FFA Dubai ltd (DIFC) achievements to differ from the future results, performance (financial or operating) or achievements expressed +971 4 3230300 or implied by such forward-looking statements. Therefore, FFA Private Bank makes no guarantee or warranty to the accuracy and thoroughness of the information mentioned, and accepts no responsibility or liability for damages incurred as a result of opinions formed and decisions made based on information presented in this document. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without prior notice. EQUITY RESEARCH REAL ESTATE - SOLIDERE This page was intentionally left blank 2 EQUITY RESEARCH REAL ESTATE - SOLIDERE TABLE OF CONTENTS INVESTMENT OPINION ................................................................................................................. 4 COMPANY OVERVIEW .................................................................................................................. 6 Brief Background ................................................................................................................................. 6 Share Capital ....................................................................................................................................... 6 Latest Developments .......................................................................................................................... 6 Business Lines and Strategy ................................................................................................................ 7 SWOT Analysis..................................................................................................................................... 9 REAL ESTATE SECTOR HIGHLIGHTS .............................................................................................. 10 Sector Fundamentals ........................................................................................................................ 10 Sector Performance .......................................................................................................................... 11 Property Prices and Emerging Trends ............................................................................................... 12 MACROECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS ................................................................................................. 13 Economic Highlights 2010 ................................................................................................................. 13 Economic Highlights 2011 ................................................................................................................. 14 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS AND FORECASTS .................................................................................... 15 VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION ........................................................................................ 18 KEY INVESTMENT RISKS.............................................................................................................. 19 APPENDIX .................................................................................................................................. 20 Comparable Valuation ...................................................................................................................... 20 Financial Statements ........................................................................................................................
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