DOCSLIB.ORG

Market Talk Investment Strategy Research Division

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Market Talk Investment Strategy Research Division Market Talk Investment Strategy Research Division Wednesday, March 6, 2019 Investment Strategy Post-election situation is still an important factor and will determine if fund flow would SET Index 1,639.00 return or not. According to recent polls, the Pheu Thai Party still got the biggest supports, Change (pts) 3.70 far ahead of rivals. 2019 market earnings may be slashed to reflect actual cost due to Market Cap (Million B) 41,234 the new Labor Protection Law, but there could be some compensation from non-recurring items (stock gain). In the short term, SET Index would still be swinging around 1,630- 1,645 pts. Top picks are laggard plays with strong fundamentals like BJC(FV@B61) and BBL(FV@B227) and a defensive play BCH(FV@B21) which has 34% upside. Net Buy and Sell by Investor Type (Million B) SET Index supported by energy plays Foreign -1,737.88 SET Index was in a negative territory for most of the day but rebounded near the closing hour Proprietary 1,014.02 and finally closed at 1,639.00 pts, 3.70 pts (+0.23%) with trading value of only B41.1bn. Institutional 911.49 The market still lacked new positive sentiment aside from softening trade war tension, while Retail -187.62 political issues are still one of the most significant factor. The market was supported by big- cap stocks AMATA (+3.4%), PTTEP (+1.24%), BBL (+0.97%), AOT (+0.75%), SCC (+0.4%), and INTUCH (+0.45%) as well as medium- and small-cap stocks MCOT (+15.3%), BEC (+6.2%), JMART (+4.23%), ESSO (+3.64%); in contrast, some stocks went down, e.g. KBANK (-0.51%) and BDMS (-0.42%). SET Index is still expected around 1,630-1,645 pts, still lacking offshore driver. Main focus still revolves around political situation after the election; according to the latest survey, Pheu Thai was still expected to win the most seats by a wide margin. 2019 market earnings forecast is likely to be revised down to reflect higher personnel expense under the new labor protection law, but this would be partly compensated by extraordinary items (lower stock loss). We recommend defensive stocks with solid fundamentals that are still laggard. Top pick is BCH(FV@B21). China stimulates economy to offset trade war impact China’s 2019 GDP growth was already revised down from 6.5% to 6.0-6.5%, slowing down from 6.6% in 2018. At the meeting of China's National People's Congress (NPC) yesterday, Porranee Thongyen China implemented additional financial stimulus policies to offset trade war impact: License No: 004146 Therdsak Thaveeteeratham Value-added tax (VAT) was lowered, from 16% to 13% for manufacturing segments and License No: 004132 from 10% to 9% for transportation segments. Paradorn Tiaranapramote 2019 budget deficit target was 2.8% of GDP, higher than 2.6% in 2018. License No: 075365 Reserve requirement ratio (RRR) may be raised further. RRR was already lowered two Takit Chardcherdsak License No: 087636 times in January by 1% to 13.5%. Yothin Pukongnin All these factors have positive sentiment on Chinese stock markets. After plunging the most Quantitative Analyst Assistant in the region 24.3% in 2018, China's stock index already rallied 22%ytd, probably Jerdjaras Kaewkua Analyst Assistant outperforming regional markets. Wanapruk Komonwitayatorn Economist Assistant English research reports are a rough translation of our Thai-language research products. It is produced The Thai language research reports and information contained therein are compiled from primarily with time efficiency in mind, so that English-English research reports are a rough translation of public data sources and our analysts' interviews with executives of listed companies. our Thai-language research products. It is produced primarily with time efficiency in mind, so that They are presented for informational purposes only and not to be deemed as English-reading clients can see what the main recommendations are from our Thai-language research solicitations to buy or sell any securities. Best attempts have been made to verify team. Given that this is a rough-and-ready translation, Asia Plus Securities Company cannot be held information from these vast sources, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy, adequacy, responsible for translation inaccuracies. completeness and timeliness. The analyses and comments presented herein are opinions of our analysts and do not necessarily reflect the views of Asia Plus Securities. ASIA PLUS SECURITIES CO.,LTD. Broker#8. Research Protection @Copyright 2015 SECURITIES CO.,LTD. Broker#8. Research Protection @Copyright 2015" Market Talk Investment Strategy | Research Division US to end GSP for India, Turkey While US-China trade war tension has subsided, the US is proceeding on additional protectionism policies on other countries. It intends to terminate Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) tariff exemption for India and Turkey - the No.1 and the No.5 largest suppliers to the US (in other words, making up the largest and the fifth largest shares of U.S. imports), respectively - for failing to provide the US with equitable and reasonable export market access; GSP termination will be effective in May 2019. Automobile and part is the top import goods of the US, amounting US$295bn and making up 12% of U.S. import. The US is proceeding with safeguard tariff hike on imported automobiles, in addition to imports of washing machine, solar panel, steel, aluminum, and biodiesel that were valued US$52bn and accounted for 2.1% of total U.S. import (effective in March 2018). In mid-May 2019, the US will hike safeguard tariff hike on automobile imports from 2.4% at present to 25%. This would adversely affect Mexico the most as it accounts for 28.6% of U.S. auto-part import, followed by Canada (19.1%), Eurozone (19%), and Japan (17.6%); Thailand exports US$1.04bn worth of auto-part goods to the US, only 0.44% of Thailand's total export or 4% of total auto export). Nevertheless, Mexico and Canada would be limitedly affected by this. In 2018, the US, Mexico, and Canada already entered the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), replacing the NAFTA. Under the USMCA, the US will grant Mexico and Canada an exemption on 25% auto-part import tariff, provided that the two countries open their markets to the US: Canada must give U.S. milk producers access to 3.5% of its dairy market, while Mexico must slash import tariff on U.S. agricultural goods (e.g. pork) to 0%. Automobile produced in North America must have 75% (originally 62.5%) of components manufactured in these three countries; plus, automobile manufacturer must source at least 70% of steel and aluminum from the three North American countries. Thus, this issue would mainly affect other auto exporters, especially Europe and Japan. Thailand will be indirectly affected. Export to North America makes up only 8% of Thailand's total auto product export, mainly to Mexico (under the USMCA), so auto safeguard import tariff hike would increase cost of export. Thus, Thai auto manufacturers would have to expand to other export markets, especially Asia, Oceania (31% of auto export), and the Middle East (10% of auto export). This issue would only have short-term negative sentiment on the auto sector. We recommend staying away from AH but buying SAT(FV@B29) that still have additional purchase order from a US- based auto firm. MCOT's 2600 MHz band auctioned as 5G band. Mobile players still not ready The amended National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) Act allows the NBTC to recall spectrums that are unused or inefficiently used to reallocate them by auction. Yesterday, the NBTC recalled 190 MHz bandwidth of 2600 MHz spectrum, 154 MHz from MCOT, 12 MHz from the Royal Thai Army and the Royal Thai Armed Forces Headquarters, and 24 MHz from the Public Relations Department; if MCOT does not oppose the recall, the NBTC is anticipate to auction the spectrum for 5G service in 3Q19. Meanwhile, Market Talk Investment Strategy | Research Division the NBTC reserved all rights to recall of the 700 MHz spectrum from digital TV operators on the day of digital TV channel bidding. MCOT will receive cash compensation from this issue, which will help securing its TV business that is facing loss, thus having positive sentiment. 2600 MHz frequency has six years left until the end of 2025. Compared with prices of similar frequencies, 1) 2100 MHz band at the price of B31m/year per 1 MHz auctioned in 2012 and 2) 60 MHz bandwidth of 2300 MHz band (DTAC leased from TOT) at the price of B75m/year per 1 MHz. Currently, 2600 MHz band is mainly used for 4G and 5G services in China, while the US, Europe, and South Korea are providing 5G services on either 3400-3600 MHz or 26000-28000 MHz spectrum. Bidding 5G frequencies too soon would have negative sentiment on mobile operators due to the following factors: 1) All mobile operators still have to bear massive 4G license cost. ADVANCE and TRUE still have two installments left for 900 MHz licenses, B4bn due in 2019 for ADVANC and B60bn due in 2020 for TRUE. DTAC still has three installments left, B2bn in 2019, B2bn in 2021, and B3bn in 2022. Moreover, the NBTC will auction many other frequencies in the near future, e.g. 700 MHz, 3400 MHz, and 28000 MHz; 5G frequencies would be much cheaper than 4G frequencies, 1) 15 MHz of 1800 MHz band at B40bn and 2) 10 MHz of 900 MHz band at B75bn. 2) Worldwide 5G network is currently at its first step, although more experiments have already been conducted.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Protest Law & Public Order Policing in Hybrid Regimes
    Protest Law & Public Order Policing in Hybrid Regimes Pat Niyomsilp Submitted for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy School of Law University of East Anglia September 2019 This copy of the thesis has been supplied on condition that anyone who consults it is understood to recognise that its copyright rests with the author and that use of any information derived there from must be in accordance with current UK Copyright Law. In addition, any quotation or extract must include full attribution. i Abstract Hybrid regimes are those in which only the formalities of representative electoral politics are observed. Consequently, political legitimacy is determined on the basis of whether the incumbent political leaders have the backing of non-representative political ‘guardians’ (such as the monarchy and the military) rather than through the popular vote exclusively. The incumbents need to win elections. They stay in power by manipulating the political sphere to gain unfair advantages over their political competitors. Individuals in hybrid regimes do not enjoy freedom of assembly in the same way as individuals in consolidated democracies. This thesis highlights how hybrid regimes in Southeast Asia (Cambodia, Malaysia, and Thailand) use legal mechanisms governing public assemblies to thwart the effective realisation of the freedom of assembly stipulated by international human rights law. Such legal factors are often overlooked by scholars in political science and social movement studies in seeking to explain both regime resilience and the repression of opposition protest movements. While hybrid regimes may appear to adopt international human rights standards on public assemblies, these are inconsistently implemented in practice.
    [Show full text]
  • GLOBAL REPORT 2021 • 3 Table of Contents
    GLOBAL REPORT ON MISSING PERSONS 2021 GLOBAL REPORT ON MISSING PERSONS 2021 Authors Noor Hamadeh Alicia Decker Charlotte McDonald-Gibson Arely Cruz Santiago Baik Tae-Ung Melanie Klinkner Publisher International Commission on Missing Persons For the Publisher Kathryne Bomberger Reviewers Eric Stover Nadim Houry (Middle East and North Africa) Melanie Klinkner (Middle East and North Africa, Americas) Sharon Nakandha (Africa) Paula Gaviria (Americas) LeAndra Nephin (Americas) Alessandra La Vaccara (Indicators) Sanji Monageng (Africa) Editor Andreas Kleiser Associate Editor Kevin Sullivan Citation Editor Kerri Lee Coleman Graphic Design and layout Maricarmen Rubí Baeza ISBN 9789083152417 This publication reflects the views of the author alone and not necessarily those of ICMP and the Global Report. Only contents not signed by authors may be attributed to the organization. Cover image by Jana Romanova, Building a Monument, Creative Court, The Hague 2020 – from the collective project Parts Unknown https://parts-unknown.co/ This publication has been made possible through the generous support of the United Kingdom. Foreword This year we are marking the 25th anniversary of the of the circumstances of the disappearance of the missing International Commission on Missing Persons (ICMP). person is an indispensable investment in peace, and in The organization was established at the initiative of US human development and societal well-being. President Bill Clinton during the 1996 G-7 Summit in Lyon, France, with a mandate to secure the cooperation of I am honored to introduce this first edition of the Global governments and assist them in locating missing persons, Report, which will now be published annually. It will enable originally following the wars in the former Yugoslavia.
    [Show full text]
  • Thailand: End Harassment and Prosecutions of Opposition Members
    www.amnesty.org AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC STATEMENT 20 January 2020 ASA 39/1684/2020 THAILAND: END HARASSMENT AND PROSECUTIONS OF OPPOSITION MEMBERS Amnesty International calls on the Thai authorities to stop instrumentalizing the legal process to intimidate and harass the leaders and members of the Future Forward party, as the country’s Constitutional Court prepares to deliver a judgment on 21 January 2020 on a judicial case that could see the party banned and its leaders prosecuted. The spate of prosecutions targeting the party appear to be in clear retaliation for activities of the party that fall within the exercise of the rights to freedom of peaceful assembly and association. The Future Forward Party faces disbandment on 21 January. The case was initiated on 18 June 2019 by a petition filed with the Constitutional Court by Natthaporn Toprayoon, former advisor to the Chief Ombudsman. The party’s leader, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, its secretary-general, Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, and several party executives are alleged to have violated Section 49 of the 2017 Constitution through acts deemed to have the intention of overthrowing the constitutional monarchy. Natthaphon further accused the party of having links to the Illuminati, a name given to both real and fictitious groups, citing a vague resemblance between the logos. Despite the party’s request for a full inquiry, the Court concluded that there was sufficient evidence to issue a ruling in the case, and refused to summon witnesses or examine evidence. The party could face disbandment if the court upholds the complaint, which would violate Thailand’s human rights obligations, including the rights to freedom of expression, peaceful assembly and association of the party’s members.
    [Show full text]
  • General Prayut Chan-O-Cha Voted in As the New Prime Minister (6/6/2019)
    General Prayut Chan-o-cha Voted in as the New Prime Minister (6/6/2019) Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha will continue to serve as Prime Minister of Thailand for a second term, as he was elected the new prime minister in Parliament late at night on 5 June 2019. The voting was conducted at the joint sitting of senators and members of the House of Representatives. The parliamentary session began at 11.00 hr at the TOT Public Company Headquarters on Chaeng Watthana Road. Two persons were proposed for the election of the prime minister. The Palang Pracharath Party proposed General Prayut Chan-o-cha, while the Future Forward Party proposed Mr. Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, leader of the party. General Prayut, Thailand 29th Prime Minister, received 500 votes, while Mr. Thanathorn got 244 votes, with three abstentions. After a long debate of 13 hours, the parliamentary session was closed at 23.55 hr. According to the Constitution, the person to be voted as the prime minister must win at least 376 votes, a majority of the combined membership of the 500-member House of Representatives and the 250-member Senate. The next step is that the new government, led by the Palang Pracharath Party, will be formed. It will be a coalition, comprising many parties. On the same day, before the parliamentary session began to vote for the prime minister, former leader of the Democrat Party and former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva announced his resignation as a member of parliament. The announcement came after the Democrat Party, during its meeting on 4 June 2019, decided to join the coalition, with General Prayut as the Prime Minister.
    [Show full text]
  • Lèse-Majesté Charges
    Breaking the Silence Thailand’s renewed use of lèse-majesté charges March 2021 ARTICLE 19 Free Word Centre 60 Farringdon Road London EC1R 3GA United Kingdom T: +44 20 7324 2500 F: +44 20 7490 0566 E: [email protected] W: www.article19.org Tw: @article19org Fb: facebook.com/article19org 2 © ARTICLE 19 2021 This work is provided under the Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial-ShareAlike 2.5 licence. You are free to copy, distribute and display this work and to make derivative works, provided you: 1) give credit to ARTICLE 19; 2) do not use this work for commercial purposes; 3) distribute any works derived from this publication under a licence identical to this one. To access the full legal text of this licence, please visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/legalcode. ARTICLE 19 would appreciate receiving a copy of any materials in which information from this report is used. 3 CONTENTS Preface 5 Introduction 6 International standards on freedom of expression 7 Section 112 – A history of silence 9 A new wave of lèse-majesté cases 11 Recommendations 14 4 PREFACE This ARTICLE 19 report about the renewed use of Thailand’s draconian lesè-majesté provision is exceptionally timely. Now, as before, Thai authorities are using lesè-majesté charges to stifle political speech and punish those calling for democratic reforms. ARTICLE 19’s analysis of the lesè-majesté law is essential, and this report makes clear that the law is fundamentally incompatible with the right to freedom of expression. In 2017, when I was the UN Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of the rights to freedom of opinion and expression, I issued a statement expressing my concern after the Thai authorities charged student activist Jatupat Boonpatararaksa with violating Section 112 of the Criminal Code — Thailand’s lesè-majesté provision.
    [Show full text]
  • July 10, 2020 Thai Enquirer Summary Political News • the Gang of “4 Angels”---Comprising Finance Minister Uttama Savanayan
    July 10, 2020 Thai Enquirer Summary Political News The gang of “4 angels”---comprising Finance Minister Uttama Savanayana, Energy Minister Sontirat Sontijirawong, Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation Minister Suvit Maesincee and deputy secretary-general of the Prime Minister’s Office Kobsak Pootrakul--- announced surprising resignation from the Phalang Pracharat Party (PPRP). The announcement was made at Centara Grand at Central Plaza Ladprao Bangkok yesterday (July 9). Uttama who announced his resignation as the PPRP leader said this is the right time for him to resign after working with the party for 2 years and lead the party to form a coalition government successfully. He said their move is to allow the new executive committee to start its duties. Uttama said he has no plans to form a new political group or party for the time being. As all 4 members who resigned from PPRP are part of the economic team engineered by Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak, Uttama ensured the public that their resignation would have no effect on the performance of the executive branch. The former 4 Phalang Pracharat members said they would continue working in their cabinet portfolios. Uttama said a decision to reshuffle the cabinet is for the prime minister to make. Sontirat told reporters that they will continue in our roles in the administration the best we can. What happens next is for the prime minister to decide. The 4 men held ministerial posts in the former military government before helping to establish the PPRP to take part in last year’s general election. They announced resignation from the former Prayut cabinet on August 29, 2019 to lead the PPRP’s campaign in the general election, helping the party secure enough votes to form a new government.
    [Show full text]
  • Thailand: "They Are Always Watching": Restricting Freedom of Expression
    “THEY ARE ALWAYS WATCHING” RESTRICTING FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION ONLINE IN THAILAND Amnesty International is a global movement of more than 7 million people who campaign for a world where human rights are enjoyed by all. Our vision is for every person to enjoy all the rights enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and other international human rights standards. We are independent of any government, political ideology, economic interest or religion and are funded mainly by our membership and public donations. © Amnesty International 2020 Except where otherwise noted, content in this document is licensed under a Creative Commons Cover photo: Unknown people uses mobile phone while travelling by subway in Bangkok (attribution, non-commercial, no derivatives, international 4.0) licence. © Settawat Udom/Shutterstock https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode For more information please visit the permissions page on our website: www.amnesty.org Where material is attributed to a copyright owner other than Amnesty International this material is not subject to the Creative Commons licence. First published in 2020 by Amnesty International Ltd Peter Benenson House, 1 Easton Street London WC1X 0DW, UK Index: ASA 39/2157/2020 Original language: English amnesty.org CONTENTS 1. BACKGROUND 6 POLICING FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION ONLINE 7 THE MARCH 2019 ELECTIONS 9 2. VIOLATIONS OF THE RIGHT TO FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION ONLINE 11 TARGETING CRITICS 11 RESTRICTING EXPRESSION RELATED TO THE MONARCHY 15 HARASSING AND INTIMIDATING ONLINE USERS 18 PURSUING “FAKE NEWS” 19 3. LAWS USED TO RESTRICT ONLINE EXPRESSION 21 COMPUTER-RELATED CRIME ACT 21 SEDITION 21 CRIMINAL DEFAMATION 22 EMERGENCY DECREE ON PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION IN EMERGENCY SITUATION 22 4.
    [Show full text]
  • 2019 Civil Society Organization Sustainability Index
    STRENGTHENING STRENGTHENING CIVIL SOCIETY CIVIL SOCIETY GLOBALLY GLOBALLY 2019 CIVIL SOCIETY ORGANIZATION SUSTAINABILITY INDEX FOR ASIA 6th EDITION – DECEMBER 2020 2019 CIVIL SOCIETY ORGANIZATION SUSTAINABILITY INDEX FOR ASIA 6TH EDITION – DECEMBER 2020 Developed by: United States Agency for International Development Bureau for Democracy, Conflict and Humanitarian Assistance Center of Excellence on Democracy, Human Rights and Governance Acknowledgment: This publication was made possible through support provided by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under Cooperative Agreement No. AID-OAA-LA-17-00003. Disclaimer: The opinions expressed herein are those of the panelists and other project researchers and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or FHI 360. Cover Photo: The Fourth Regional Disability Rights Dialogue, which was held in Yangon, Myanmar in January 2019, focused on opportunities to integrate disability rights into national policies to implement the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (ASEAN’s) Enabling Masterplan 2025: Mainstreaming the Rights of Persons with Disabilities. The dialogue was co-hosted by the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES), the General Election Network for Disability Access (AGENDA), and the Union Election Commission of Myanmar (UEC) and was supported by USAID, the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID), and the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights,
    [Show full text]
  • Qatar Concerned Over Spread of Islamophobia
    QATAR | Page 16 SPORT | Page 1 Derwael’s winning return to Over 30,000 attend world title A R Rahman’s concert venue published in QATAR since 1978 SATURDAY Vol. XXXX No. 11131 March 23, 2019 Rajab 16, 1440 AH GULF TIMES www. gulf-times.com 2 Riyals Rwandan president meets FM In brief Qatar reiterates QATAR | Offi cial Amir condoles with Golan belongs Iraqi president His Highness the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani held a telephone conversation with Iraqi President to Syria and is Dr Barham Salih, expressing condolences on the victims of a ferry that sank in the Tigris river in Mosul, wishing the injured a speedy recovery. Page 3 Israel-occupied QATAR | Offi cial QNA alike throughout the bloody civil war Doha that has ripped the country apart since Speaker in Christchurch 2011. to off er condolences The Syrian government said Trump’s HE the Advisory Council Speaker, atar stressed yesterday its po- comments disregarded international Ahmed bin Abdullah bin Zaid sition that Golan Heights is law. al-Mahmoud, arrived yesterday Rwandan President Paul Kagame met in Kigali yesterday with HE the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Aff airs Qan occupied Arab land, and “The American position towards in Christchurch, New Zealand, to Sheikh Mohamed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, who is paying an off icial visit to Rwanda. HE the Minister of Foreign Aff airs strongly rejected any attempts to un- Syria’s occupied Golan Heights clearly convey the condolences of His conveyed the greetings of His Highness the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani to President Kagame, and his wishes for dermine international resolutions refl ects the United States’ contempt Highness the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin further progress and prosperity to the Rwandan people.
    [Show full text]
  • March 17, 2021 Thai Enquirer Summary Political News • All Eyes
    March 17, 2021 Thai Enquirer Summary Political News All eyes are on how a vote for the 3rd reading of a charter amendment bill fairs in parliament today after a ruling by the Constitutional Court last week made clear that parliament’s passage of the bill - which involves amending Section 256 of the constitution for a Charter Drafting Assembly (CDA) to be established - is against the ruling. Prime Minister Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha already came out to distance himself from parliamentarians’ plan to vote for the bill in the 3rd reading. Gen Prayut said the matter is the parliament’s matter. He will let parliamentarians decide. Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngan already came out to warn that the parliament’s vote for the bill in the 3rd reading is problematic, citing page 10th, 11th and the last paragraph of the 2nd page of the written ruling released by the court. Meanwhile, a report said the core coalition Phalang Pracharat Party (PPRP) sent signals to its lawmakers to vote down the bill today. Deputy Prime Minister Gen Prawit Wongsuwan, as PPRP leader, came out to deny any attempts to delay the charter amendment process. Gen Prawit said he supported parliament to go ahead with changes to the charter section by section and ruled out the passage for the formation of a CDA. The chief government whip and deputy leader of the ruling Palang Pracharath Party, Wirach Ratanasate, said lawmakers were still unsure what to do but chief opposition whip Sutin Klungsang insisted today's vote should proceed. In a sensational release of a letter, the Ratsadon group’s key leader and human rights lawyer Arnon Nampa caused a stir after he wrote a petition to the Criminal Court demanding an investigation into the suspicious conduct of a group of prison officers.
    [Show full text]
  • FORWARD Towards ASEAN Community - Centrality - Connectivity
    ISSN 2460-1659 FORWARD Towards ASEAN Community - Centrality - Connectivity OPINION Elections and Democracy in Southeast Asia everal elections had been held the quality of democracy, we can find that (Electoral Integrity Initiative, 2018). This simultaneously by countries in the Southeast Asian region to some extent situation also indicates, as explained by Southeast Asian Region in this year. still face a very serious problem. According the former ASEAN Secretary General Dr. S to European Intelligence Unit, in its 2018 This includes three main countries in this Surin Pitsuwan (2016), that one of the region namely Indonesia, Thailand and the index, for instance, four of ten countries in main problems of this region is related Philippines. In 2018, Malaysia also held this region could be regarded as “flawed to democracy development that still a relatively free and fair election. Many democracy” (Malaysia, the Philippines, left behind compared to the economic hopes that these elections would bring a Indonesia and Singapore) while the rest development. For this reason, a part of new-fresh direction and hope of the people is whether “hybrid system” (Thailand) or the quite success story in terms of the in their countries towards much better “authoritarian” (Myanmar, Vietnam, Laos election procedural process, one of the democracy. This kind of hope is really and Cambodia). This situation is actually in main homework of the people and the significant, since the strength of democracy line with the statement made by Electoral government in this region is actually how is actually a prominent based for creating Integrity Initiative that “Some ASEAN to properly establish “people sovereignty”.
    [Show full text]
  • Thailand's Strategic Drift: Domestic Determinants Amidst Superpower
    STRATEGIC STRATEGIC INSIGHTS Thailand’s strategic drift Domestic determinants amidst superpower competition 153 Thitinan Pongsudhirak Introduction Even before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020, Thailand’s strategic posture had been increasingly dominated by its political preoccupations at home. The pandemic, also known as Covid-19, merely accentuated trends and patterns in Thailand’s foreign policy and security outlook in view of the geopolitical rivalry and competition between the US and China. As Covid-19 showed signs of slowing down by June 2020—on the assumption that there would be no ‘second wave’ of similar virulence—Thailand’s strategic role and challenges were on course to return in full, just as they were prior to the virus outbreak. The domestic political instability from cycles of coups, constitutions and elections since constitutionalism replaced absolute monarchy in 1932 has made Thailand unable to make a break for an effective democratic future once and for all. These domestic shortcomings have also impeded Thailand’s role abroad. After more than five years of lacklustre military–authoritarian government following Thailand’s 13th successful putsch in May 2014, the country’s most recent poll, on 24 March 2019, yielded a controversial parliament and a fractious post-election coalition government, headed by incumbent Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, who led the junta that Left: Cropped image of H.E. General Prayut Chan-o-cha, Prime Minister, Kingdom of Thailand: flickr/World Travel and Tourism Council. Right: Thai soldiers blocking skywalk due to anti coup riot, 25 May 2014, Bangkok, Thailand: iStockphoto/tassapon. June 2020 2 Strategic Insights seized power to begin with.
    [Show full text]