Bridge Linking Engineering and Society

Summer 2018 INFRASTRUCTURE

The BRIDGE LINKING ENGINEERING AND SOCIETY

The Future Design of Sustainable Infrastructure Michael D. Lepech The Promise of Smart and Resilient Cities Reginald DesRoches and John E. Taylor Use of Radar Data to Assess Water Infrastructure Resiliency and Sustainability Theodore V. Hromadka II and Prasada Rao Are Our Bridges Safe? Andrzej S. Nowak and Olga Iatsko The US Electric Power System Infrastructure and Its Vulnerabilities Theodore U. Marston Trends in Container Terminal Infrastructure and Technology Omar A. Jaradat The Role of Infrastructure in an Automated Vehicle Future Ryan J. Harrington, Carmine Senatore, John M. Scanlon, and Ryan M. Yee

The mission of the National Academy of Engineering is to advance the well-being of the nation by promoting a vibrant engineering profession and by marshalling the expertise and insights of eminent engineers to provide independent advice to the federal government on matters involving engineering and technology. The BRIDGE

NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING

Gordon R. England, Chair C. D. Mote, Jr., President Corale L. Brierley, Vice President Julia M. Phillips, Home Secretary Ruth A. David, Foreign Secretary Martin B. Sherwin, Treasurer

Editor in Chief: Ronald M. Latanision Managing Editor: Cameron H. Fletcher Production Assistant: Penelope Gibbs The Bridge (ISSN 0737-6278) is published quarterly by the National Academy of Engineering, 2101 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20418.

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Mission Statement of The Bridge The Bridge publishes articles on engineering research, education, and practice; science and technology policy; and the interface between engineering and technology and society. The intent is to stimulate debate and dialogue both among members of the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) and in the broader community of policymakers, educators, business leaders, and other interested individuals. The Bridge relies on its editor in chief, NAE members, and staff to identify potential issue topics and guest editors. Invited guest editors, who have expertise in a given issue’s theme, are asked to select authors and topics and to enlist colleagues to assess (in aggregate) articles for publication. The quarterly has a distribution of about 7,000, including NAE members, members of Congress, libraries, universities, and interested individuals. Issues are available at www.nae.edu/Publications/Bridge.aspx.

A complete copy of The Bridge is available in PDF format at www.nae.edu/TheBridge. Some of the articles in this issue are also available as HTML documents and may contain links to related sources of information, multimedia files, or other content. The Volume 48, Number 2 • Summer 2018 BRIDGE LINKING ENGINEERING AND SOCIETY

Editors’ Note 3 A Vision for the Future of America’s Infrastructure Piotr Moncarz and Michael D. Lepech

Features 5 The Future Design of Sustainable Infrastructure Michael D. Lepech New probabilistic, performance-based limit state design approaches for sustainability can prompt innovative solutions that meet sustainability goals in ways that are safe and economical. 13 The Promise of Smart and Resilient Cities Reginald DesRoches and John E. Taylor Smart technologies and systems can improve disaster monitoring and threat assessment to strengthen cities’ ability to predict and prepare for disaster impacts. 21 Use of Radar Data to Assess Water Infrastructure Resiliency and Sustainability Theodore V. Hromadka II and Prasada Rao Radar data can be used for risk assessment and planning for sustainability in land development and infrastructure needs. 26 Are Our Bridges Safe? Andrzej S. Nowak and Olga Iatsko New materials, technologies, design techniques, monitoring equipment and procedures, and sensors can and should be used to make bridges safer. 31 The US Electric Power System Infrastructure and Its Vulnerabilities Theodore U. Marston The reliability of the US electric power system is increasingly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, use of renewable energy sources, and cyberattacks. 40 Trends in Container Terminal Infrastructure and Technology Omar A. Jaradat Research, investment, and information sharing are needed to ensure critical upgrades in US container terminal capacity and infrastructure. (continued on next page)

48 The Role of Infrastructure in an Automated Vehicle Future Ryan J. Harrington, Carmine Senatore, John M. Scan- lon, and Ryan M. Yee Infrastructure modifications could enhance and expedite the development and performance of AV technology to support the vision of zero road traffic fatalities. 56 An Interview with… Sylvia Acevedo, CEO, Girl Scouts of the USA

News and Notes 65 NAE Newsmakers 68 NAE Chair, Vice President, and Councillors Elected 69 NAE Honors 2018 Draper Prize Winner 72 NAE-NAM Regional Meeting on Technobiology at the University of Miami 73 NAE Regional Meeting at UCSD: How Interdisciplinary Collaboration and Data Science Are Making the Invisible Visible 74 NAE Regional Meeting Hosted by Schlumberger 75 2018 Yvonne C. Brill Lectureship in Aerospace Engineering 76 2018 EngineerGirl Essay Contest on Infrastructure 77 New Staff at the NAE 77 Calendar of Meetings and Events 78 In Memoriam

80 Publications of Interest

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an emy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongov- Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to ernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objec- The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 tive analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected Academies also encourage education and research, recognize out- by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. standing contributions to knowledge, and increase public understand- Mote, Jr., is president. ing in matters of science, engineering, and medicine.

The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Acad- and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. 3 Editors’ Note

investment is associated with higher aggregate demand, lower unemployment, and increased productivity and gross domestic product in the long run (Stupak 2018). Infrastructure investment must also be viewed as a core component of sustainable development. Because such investment occurs in multidecadal cycles, it is nec- Piotr Moncarz (NAE) is a prin- essary to establish a trajectory toward comprehensive cipal engineer with Exponent sustainability now. Failure Analysis Associates, Today’s investments in surface transportation will Menlo Park, CA. result in less time spent on congested roadways and more discretionary time for motorists (ASCE 2017). Today’s investments in renewable energy production will lower the carbon emissions of the nation’s electricity supply (Hertwich 2015). And today’s investments Michael Lepech is an associate in electric automobiles will enable centralized emission controls during power generation rather than decentral- professor of civil and environ- ized emission controls at the tailpipe (Hawkins et al. mental engineering and senior 2013). These are just a few examples of how infrastruc- fellow at the Woods Institute ture investment can directly deliver social, environ- for the Environment at Stanford mental, and economic benefits and enable achievement University. of long-term sustainable development goals. Yet there remain large funding shortages in infra- A Vision for the Future of structure investment: a gap of nearly $1.5 trillion is predicted through 2025 (ASCE 2017). This breaks America’s Infrastructure down into estimated shortfalls for the following types In today’s political climate, there are few issues that gen- of infrastructure: $1.1 trillion for surface transportation, erate broad agreement. One that does is the importance $105 billion for water and wastewater, $177 billion for of long-term investment in core national infrastructure electricity, $42 million for airports, and $15 billion systems—roads, bridges, seaports, airports, railroads, for waterways and seaports (ASCE 2017). The sources water systems, power systems, and telecommunication of these investments are not clear. networks. Thoughtful, deliberate preparation is needed Yet circumstances are not as dire as they may seem. As as the challenges of tomorrow remain highly uncertain noted by others, “there is plenty of money, especially in but without doubt will require a collaborative national the private sector. There is currently an oversupply of pri- effort to solve. The articles in this issue, by academic vate capital. In particular, there is also an unprecedented and industry experts, focus on what’s needed to prepare appetite for infrastructure assets from the private invest- US infrastructure systems for the coming decades. ment community—in part because the asset class has performed consistently well in recent years” (Kim 2016, Infrastructure Investment: Benefits and Gaps p. 3). Infrastructure is increasingly seen as an up-and- The economic benefits of national infrastructure invest- coming fixed-income asset that provides attractive risk- ment have been extensively studied (e.g., Aschauer adjusted returns and cash flows for investors (Kim 2016). 1989; Gramlich 1994; Munnell 1990a,b). The specific Why, then, does the funding gap still exist? Unfortu- returns on public investment in infrastructure systems nately, many core infrastructure projects are unattract- are debated among economists but, according to a recent ive to financing because of a number of challenges: Congressional Research Service report, there is evi- • lack of clear revenue sources over the decades-long dence that the capacity-building nature of infrastructure lifecycle of infrastructure

The 4 BRIDGE

• lack of reliable models for long-term economic cost, Smart infrastructure systems will enable innovative social benefit, and environmental impact predictions business models, advanced performance tracking and (e.g., maintenance, replacement, operation) prediction, and robust decision-making support. Core infrastructure systems that will benefit include bridges, • lack of robust decision-making tools and frameworks roads, seaport and airport facilities, buildings, social that incorporate real-world performance data and can infrastructure (schools, health care, civic facilities), consider innovative new technologies water/wastewater treatment and supply, solid waste/ • institutional barriers that prohibit sharing of informa- environmental management, IT/telecommunications, tion, experiences, and funding sources and power/energy utilities. When deployed at national scale, these smart infrastructure systems will constitute • significant governance challenges in the manage- an unparalleled competitive advantage for US busi- ment of projects that involve both public and private nesses and industries for decades to come, comparable entities. to the country’s investments in the railroad network in The difficulties range from the fundamental (e.g., the late 19th century and in the highway network in the the need to develop new technologies that reduce the mid-20th century. environmental footprint of core infrastructure sys- Smart infrastructure systems will also enhance risk tems) to the practical (e.g., the need to break down diversification through data-driven portfolio manage- institutional barriers that separate funding sources). ment and asset allocation in the public and private They also span numerous academic disciplines and infrastructure finance sectors. To more effectively fields of practice, increasing the difficulty for focused bridge these two sectors, smart infrastructure systems researchers to address them and siloed practitioners to will enable fundamentally sound methods to manage solve them. As one illustration, important questions of and diversify financial risks by assessing lifecycle cost equity in infrastructure access, tax burdens, and ben- volatility for a portfolio of infrastructure systems juxta- efits must be thoughtfully considered by policymakers, posed against revenue and overall fiscal volatility. This economists, user groups, and many other stakeholders is one example of the tight integration made possible in order to inform responsible and effective regulatory by coordination of infrastructure design, performance, oversight of private investment in core infrastructure financing, and governance. systems. To facilitate collaborative, interdisciplinary discussion, the articles in this issue present the insights of academics The Way Ahead and practitioners into the challenges and opportunities Interdisciplinary thinking and collaboration are needed associated with core US infrastructure systems: to address these complex challenges that involve not • sustainable infrastructure – Michael Lepech only engineering but also business, management science, industrial ecology, environmental studies, sociology, and • smart and resilient cities – Reginald DesRoches and public administration, among potentially many others. John Taylor The collective ability of academia, government, and • water and sewer – Theodore Hromadka II and Prasada industry to effectively reach across traditional working Rao boundaries and address these challenges will be a major factor in the capacity to address the looming infrastruc- • bridges – Andrzej Nowak and Olga Iatsko ture crisis. • electric power – Theodore Marston Much of the infrastructure investment in the coming decades will undoubtedly be to support “smart” • container terminal infrastructure and technology – systems that integrate purpose-built sensor networks Omar Jaradat (e.g., traffic loops, structure-mounted accelerometers, • infrastructure for automated vehicles – Ryan thermocouples) and native sensor networks (e.g., smart- Harrington, Carmine Senatore, John Scanlon, and phone geolocation, IoT technologies, infrastructure Ryan Yee travel cards, ridesharing data), while leveraging new artificial intelligence and machine learning technolo- Given the great challenges associated with the US gies to make better sense of massive streams of data. infrastructure systems, time is of the essence. We invite

SUMMER 2018 5

readers to consider these articles as a launching point for Aschauer DA. 1989. Is public expenditure productive? Jour- the design, construction, operation, and management nal of Monetary Economics 23:177–200. of infrastructure systems that are economically sound, Button KJ. 1998. Infrastructure investment, endogenous environmentally responsible, and socially equitable. growth, and economic convergence. Annals of Regional Science 32:145–162. Conclusion Gramlich EM. 1994. Infrastructure investment: A review Bold national leadership and action are needed to essay. Journal of Economic Literature 32:1176–1196. plan, finance, build, operate, and maintain infrastruc- Hawkins TR, Singh B, Majeau-Bettez G, Strømman AH. ture systems that will be robust, resilient, and sustain- 2013. Comparative environmental life cycle assessment able in light of rapidly changing economic, social, and of conventional and electric vehicles. Journal of Industrial environmental conditions. The nation’s infrastructure Ecology 17:53–64. systems must be adapted for a changing climate, accel- Hertwich EG, Gibon T, Bouman EA, Arvesen A, Suh S, erated technological advancement, increased urbaniza- Heath GA, Bergesen JD, Ramirez A, Vega MI, Shi L. tion, and changing work patterns. Engineers, planners, 2015. Integrated life-cycle assessment of electricity-supply policymakers, owners, operators, users, and other stake- scenarios confirms global environmental benefit of low- holders must work together to address the national carbon technologies. Proceedings of the National Acad- infrastructure crisis for today and for generations to emy of Sciences 112(20):6277–6282. come. We envision this collection of contributions as Kim J. 2016. Handbook on Urban Infrastructure Finance. an early statement of that resolve. Québec: NewCities Foundation. Munnell AH. 1990a. Why has productivity growth declined? Acknowledgments Productivity and public investment. New England Eco- The articles in this issue were reviewed for content and nomic Review (January/February):2–22. relevance by us and by Dr. Pedram Mokrian, lecturer in Munnell AH. 1990b. How does public infrastructure affect civil and environmental engineering at Stanford Uni- regional economic performance? New England Economic versity. We appreciate Dr. Mokrian’s time and effort. Review (September/October):11–32. They were edited by Cameron Fletcher, whose efforts Pfähler W, Hofmann U, Bönte W. 1996. Does extra public enhanced the clarity, accessibility, focus, and conci- infrastructure capital matter? An appraisal of empirical lit- sion of all the articles. The authors graciously thank erature. FinanzArchiv/Public Finance Analysis 53:68–112. Cameron for her thoughtful insights, great help, and Stupak JM. 2018. Economic Impact of Infrastructure Invest- dedicated efforts. ment (Report R44896). Washington: Congressional Research Service. References ASCE [American Society of Civil Engineers]. 2017. Failure to Act: Closing the Infrastructure Investment Gap for Ameri- ca’s Economic Future. Washington. New probabilistic, performance-based limit state design approaches for sustainability can prompt innovative solutions that meet sustainability goals in ways that are safe and economical.

The Future Design of Sustainable Infrastructure

Michael D. Lepech

As a critical set of systems, infrastructure forms much of the foundation for quality of life and enables national development and progress. However, it also consumes vast material resources and energy (Matos 2017). Thus, it is essential that it be designed using long-term design approaches that consider social, environmental, and economic impacts over many years of use.

Michael Lepech is an What Is “Sustainable” Infrastructure? associate professor of civil Over the past decade the designers, builders, operators, and owners of infra- and environmental engi- structure systems in the United States have been pushed by many stakehold- neering and senior fellow ers to adopt greater measures of sustainability in all facets of infrastructure at the Woods Institute projects. This push has resulted in the creation of sustainability-focused for the Environment at tools for the infrastructure sector that can be classified as (1) knowledge- Stanford University. based methods (e.g., European Commission 2013; Ross and Coleman 2008), (2) rating schema (e.g., BREEAM 2012; Greenroads International 2017a; USGBC 2018), or (3) performance-based tools (e.g., Kendall et al. 2008; Ramaswami et al. 2008; Reger et al. 2014; Zhang et al. 2010). Together these tools have brought sustainability issues to the forefront of infrastructure and building design, construction, and operations practice in the United States. For example, the US Green Building Council (USGBC 2018) has certified more than 92,000 Leadership in Energy and Environ- ment Design (LEED) projects, and the more recently introduced Greenroads SUMMER 2018 7

(2017b) rating scheme has already certified over 100 A code-based framework has been proposed that state and municipal roadway projects. pushes sustainability-focused design toward this limit But sustainability is now often defined by the criteria state approach. The 2010 fib Model Code (fib 2013, used to recognize it (e.g., limited construction material sections 3.4 and 7.10) proposes a design method that transportation distance or the purchase of renewable consists of two essential features: (1) a stochastic life- energy for construction site use; Ehrenfeld 2007). There cycle assessment and service life prediction model is no formal definition based on the perpetuation of nat- for measuring the impacts of infrastructure construc- ural, social, or economic systems (i.e., sustainability). tion, operations, and maintenance activities; and Rather, prima facie definitions are rooted in practicality (2) sustainability-focused limit states that guide design. and are a result of the problematic ex post facto nature The latter are to be considered alongside today’s of sustainability. As such, today’s criteria-based defini- accepted ultimate limit states (ULS), which protect tions can be judged as “sustainable” only from far in the against collapse and preserve life, and serviceability future with little evidence of causality. limit states (SLS), which ensure proper functionality. Moreover, while attempting to strike a balance between the built environment, the natural environment, and societal considerations, current sustainability-focused guidelines and points-based approaches are limited There is no formal definition in their ability to support rational decision making and tradeoffs and fail to consider the large uncertain- of sustainability based on ties associated with long-lasting infrastructure systems. the perpetuation of natural, This article presents a more practical approach for the sustainability-focused design of infrastructure. social, or economic systems.

Limit State Design for Sustainability Limit state design is a hallmark of modern civil engineering theory and practice (e.g., ACI 2014; AISC 2001), yet Recognizing the unique nature and environment it has not been applied to sustainability assessment and of every project, the 2010 Model Code does not pre- design of infrastructure systems or built environments. scribe sustainability design criteria and limit states for The master builders of Renaissance cathedrals, who designers. Where can these criteria and limit states be had relied on knowledge-based heuristics to inform found? their craft, transitioned to mechanics-based design theories that enabled more reliable, efficient, and well- Learning from Natural Ecosystems understood structures. These theories then yielded to Environmental sustainability limit states for infrastruc- today’s limit state design approaches that look to safely ture design and management are emerging from the and economically balance uncertain structural loads study of natural ecosystem services. Natural ecosystems and capacities according to accepted professional levels are the foundation of life on this planet: They provide of safety. grains, biomass, water, and genetic resources. They regulate the climate, pests, floods, and air and water A Code-Based Framework quality. They support photosynthesis, pollination, and Performance-based approaches that achieve these goals biogeochemical cycles. And they are of cultural, spiri- without the constraints of prescriptive design codes tual, and even aesthetic value (Bakshi et al. 2015). will likely grow more common, as is already the case Natural ecosystem services include uptake of carbon in earthquake engineering (e.g., Moehle and Deierlein monoxide, sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, and volatile 2004). Analogously, today’s sustainability-focused organic compounds. Natural ecosystems are a planetary- guidelines and points-based rating systems, which are scale life support system (Balmford et al. 2002; Costanza well-informed heuristics, must yield to science-based et al. 1997). assessment and design methods that balance loads and Until recent decades, engineers did not pay much capacities in ways that are safer, more economical, more attention to the dependence and quantitative impacts reliable, and better understood. of engineering activities on natural and social eco- The 8 BRIDGE

sequestered globally by plants, trees, and oceans. At a smaller scale, the supply of water by natural ecosystems depends on features in the watershed such as rivers, the rate of groundwater replenish- ment, rainfall, and the degree of surface imperviousness. For information about the capacity of natural ecosystems at multiple scales, various models and databases are becoming available (e.g., US Forest Service 2018). Models of natural wetlands, for example, can quantify their removal of water pollutants and other ecosystem services (Flight et al. 2012). By viewing natural ecosystem services as a crucial, but limited, resource that sustains life, the definition of environmental sustainability limit states becomes a question of balancing load versus capacity, with an acceptable level of safety that accounts for the inherent uncertainty in the system.

An Illustration: Designing to Address Climate Change The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has proposed reduction targets for global CO e emissions (IPCC 2014). These FIGURE 1 (a) Estimated global surface temperature rise associated with a range of 2 targets are based on a global surface tem- CO -equivalent (CO e) emission pathways (1850–2300), and (b) associated global 2 2 perature rise of approximately 2.5°C, CO2e emission pathways (2000–2100). GtC = gigatonne of carbon; RCP = represen- tative concentration pathway. Source: IPCC (2014). avoiding the greatest consequences of climate change and preventing irrepa- rable damage to the biosphere. systems. But viewing the engineered environment as The evolution of global surface temperature up to loads on natural ecosystems, and looking to understand year 2300 for a range of global CO2e emission scenarios nature’s ability to carry those loads, can shed light on a is shown in figure 1(a), and figure 1(b) shows global path toward limit state design for sustainability. CO2e emission pathways through year 2100 (IPCC The balance between built infrastructure and natural 2014). The scenario of greatest interest here is repre- ecosystem services exists at multiple spatial and tempo- sentative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5, which ral scales and for a variety of natural ecosystem services corresponds to a global surface temperature rise of (Bakshi et al. 2015). For instance, the load on a natural approximately 2.5°C. ecosystem may be determined by specific emissions and Based on figure 1(b), to limit stabilized global surface resource use related to an infrastructure project design temperatures to a rise of approximately 2.5°C (RCP 4.5), (e.g., lifecycle CO2-equivalent [CO2e] emissions, life- a 30–60 percent reduction in annual CO2e emissions is cycle water consumption). Capacity may be estimated needed by year 2050 (with year 2000 as the baseline). from knowledge of relevant ecosystems at the selected This reduction represents a sustainability limit state ecological scale, such as the supply of carbon seques- based on the natural atmospheric ecosystem’s carrying tration as a fraction of the mass of CO2-equivalents SUMMER 2018 9

capacity to take in and sequester (e.g., via plants, trees, oceans) global CO2e emissions. Building from the 2010 fib Model Code’s sustainability-focused design approach, a proposed probabilistic design approach consists of two types of stochastic models: (1) service life prediction and (2) lifecycle assessment (LCA) of infrastructure construction, operation, maintenance, and end-of-life activities (Lepech et al. 2014). To combine the two models, future maintenance, repair, and rehabilitation activities and their impacts are described by probability functions. The resulting framework generates a distribution of cumulative sustainability impacts throughout the lifecycle of an infrastructure system, from the beginning of construction to the time of functional obsolescence (end of life), shown schematically in figure 2(a). This frame- (a) work designs for sustainability through the reduction of impacts over time to meet current or future sustainability goals (i.e., 30–60 percent reduction in annual CO2e emissions by year 2050 versus the year 2000 baseline proposed by the IPCC).

The comparison of two infrastructure design sce- Cumulative Impact narios (status quo versus a sustainable alternative) is i0+ir1+i +ir3 shown in figure 2(b). Based on this, the level of impact r2 reduction associated with a sustainability-focused infra- i0+ir1+ir2 structure design (lower trendline) versus the status quo i i (upper trendline) can be calculated at any time in the 0+ r1 i future with a given level of confidence. Figure 2(b) also 0 shows the probability of failing to meet a sustainability- t t t t t t Time focused goal by implementing the sustainability-focused 0 r1 r2 r3 r4 fo 0 alternative, Pf(t), over the lifecycle. pf(t) Challenges of Limit State Design for (b ) Sustainability Without doubt, a comprehensive, performance-based FIGURE 2 Probabilistic distributions of cumulative environmental sustainability impacts for (a) an infrastructure system approach to sustainability-focusedFIGURE design 2 will be diffi- designed to meet a sustainability limit state from time of con- cult to implement. Significant challenges quickly come struction (t ), throughout a set of repairs at times (t ), to the 0 rn to mind; for example, time of functional obsolescence (tfo); and (b) status quo infrastructure design (upper distribution on the right) and “sustain- • Can infrastructure sustainability reasonably be able” infrastructure design (lower distribution). Failure probabil- reduced to a set of ecosystem carrying capacities? ity of not meeting reduction targets (Pf) is shown as a function of time. Reprinted with permission from Lepech et al. (2014). • How should designers account for infrastructure designs that enhance natural ecosystems (i.e., a negative load on natural ecosystems)? • How would this approach be introduced or adopted • How can ecosystems that have not been studied in code-based design? extensively by groups like the IPCC be considered? • What are allowable probabilities of failure for missing • Should all sustainability-focused limit states be con- sustainability-focused limit states 5, 10, or 50 years in sidered equally important? the future? The 10 BRIDGE

These (and other) challenges are significant, but it Opportunities is appropriate to bear in mind that the transition from An important outcome of a shift to limit state design the Renaissance master builders to today’s performance- for sustainability is the potential to drive sustainability- based design of earthquake-resistant structures took related innovations in infrastructure planning, design, centuries. And that dramatic shift required the col- construction, operation, and maintenance. Innova- laboration of many academic disciplines, such as archi- tions in construction materials (e.g., Billington et al. tecture, engineering, mechanics, and statistics, with 2014), vehicle propulsion technologies (e.g., Hawkins contributions from economics (economic loss modeling et al. 2013), or entirely new transportation modes (e.g., and costing) and public policy (building codes). The SpaceX 2013) will accelerate in the coming decades, transition to limit state design for sustainability will and many will reduce environmental impacts, increase require substantially more collaboration among aca- access and equity, and reduce the cost of infrastructure demics, practitioners, and policymakers, and will draw systems and services. While guidelines and ratings- from the diverse fields of biology, chemistry, and soci- based design approaches may struggle to incorporate ology for the proper establishment of ecosystem carry the sustainability benefits of relentless innovation in capacities and social norms. On a positive note, the infrastructure systems, the fundamental load-versus- rate at which collaborative thinking and research have capacity nature of performance-based approaches is moved from theory to practice has accelerated greatly highly adaptable. since the construction of Europe’s great cathedrals. An example of such innovation for surface transportation infrastructure is the Hyperloop (figure 3). Although still in the early stages of technology development and proof of concept, this transformative innovation would One definition of have significant environmental, social, and economic environmental sustainability costs and benefits that are complex, interrelated—and highly uncertain. These impacts include significant limit states balances load capital expenditures to build this entirely new form of transportation system (estimated at $6–7 billion to versus capacity. build a line from Los Angeles to San Francisco), significant savings in travel time over traditional surface transportation (the estimated Hyperloop travel time To incentivize the transition to limit state–based from Los Angeles to San Francisco is 35 minutes ver- design for sustainability there are measures for “socially sus a minimum of 5½ hours by car and over 10 hours responsible financing” (Kim 2016), including Green by conventional rail), the potential to power the entire Bonds and Social Impact Bonds (e.g., Pigeon et al. system using renewable energy generation and storage 2012; Reed 2014). Through such bonds, investors can (solar power arrays deployed along the route combined fund the construction of major infrastructure or other with a bank of lithium-ion batteries), and acquisition projects in return for the promise of reduced environ- and site disruption of new right of way (SpaceX 2013). mental impacts or positive social impacts (in addi- Existing sustainability-focused design approaches tion to financial repayment). The bonds are financial would struggle to accommodate the highly uncertain instruments that weigh the potential positive impacts and complex nature of these costs and benefits, and associated with an infrastructure project against other might therefore become a barrier to innovative infra- options, including the option to simply do nothing. structure projects that do not achieve a minimum They must also weigh the risk of not delivering on sustainability rating. Limit state sustainability design promised impacts. Such financing instruments are well approaches are well suited to consider (1) a variety of matched to limit state design for sustainability, which environmental and/or social sustainability limit states supports rational decision making and tradeoffs and that would apply over the roughly 345-mile (570 km) explicitly considers the large uncertainties associated route and (2) the unknown environmental, social, and with long-lasting infrastructure investments. economic performance of such a system decades into the future. SUMMER 2018 11

Conclusion As reported in numerous academic studies, news events, and anecdotal stories about the condition of existing infrastructure systems, the time is now to think long term about ways to design infrastructure to meet social, environmental, and economic goals. Improved consideration of economic, social, and environmental impacts in the design of infrastructure and the built environment will be the legacy of guidelines and ratings-based design approaches that are being developed and applied today. New limit state design for sustainability can reinvigorate designers by opening up a range of innovative solutions that meet sustainability goals in ways that are safe and economical. They reject prima facie definitions of sustainability and encourage designers, engineers, owners, man agers, and financiers to collaborate with yet other partners—for example, in the natural sciences, social sciences, and humanities—to design systems that deliver socially, environmentally, and economically sustainable benefits.

Acknowledgments The author acknowledges the support of the Stanford University Blume Fellowship, the Stanford University Shah Family Fellowship, the Stanford FIGURE 3 (a) Hyperloop passenger transport capsule conceptual design rendering and Terman Faculty Fellowship, the (b) Hyperloop capsule in tube cutaway with attached solar arrays. Reprinted with permis- Thomas V. Jones Engineering Faculty sion from (a) Arabia, Inc. (2017) and (b) SpaceX (2013). Scholarship, and the Nordic Innova- tion Centre Project (Number 08190 SR). This material is also based on work supported by well as the editorial comments of Cameron Fletcher. the National Science Foundation under Grant Nos. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recom- 1453881 “CAREER: Multiphysics Modeling for Proba- mendations expressed in this material are those of the bilistic Design and Engineering of Sustainable Infra- author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the structure” and 1334083 “Seeking Synergy Between National Science Foundation. Technological and Ecological Systems for Sustainable Engineering.” The author also thankfully acknowledges References the input of Drs. Sarah Russell-Smith, Steven Comello, ACI [American Concrete Institute]. 2014. ACI 318-14: John Basbagill, Bhavik Bakshi, Guy Ziv, and all NICe Building Code Requirements for Structural Concrete and project participants who have added to this work, as Commentary. Southfield MI. The 12 BRIDGE

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The Promise of Smart and Resilient Cities

Reginald DesRoches and John E. Taylor

The need to equip cities with smart infrastructure systems that make them more sustainable, more prosperous, more resilient, and more equitable is a critical challenge of this generation. Rapid and often unplanned urbaniza- Reginald DesRoches tion, the impacts of climate change, and aging infrastructure combine to increase the frequency and severity of impacts from natural disasters such as hurricanes, landslides, and floods. According to the United Nations, approximately 55 percent of the world’s population lives in cities, and this number is expected to increase to 60 percent by 2030 and 85 percent by 2100 (Gu et al. 2015). Cities need to find new and creative solutions to survive, adapt, and thrive. Smart technologies can enhance urban disaster resilience by significantly improving preparedness and the capacity to quickly recover from the impacts of natural hazards.

The Need for Resilience in Cities More than half of the world’s cities with a population of over 300,000 are John Taylor at high risk of exposure to at least one natural disaster (Gu et al. 2015).

Reginald DesRoches is the William and Stephanie Sick Dean of the George R. Brown School of Engineering at Rice University and professor of civil & environmental engineering and mechanical engineering. John Taylor is the Frederick Law Olmsted Professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Georgia Institute of Technology. The 14 BRIDGE

Most losses associated with natural disasters occur near Urban Systems: known hazards such as floodplains, hurricane-prone Physical, Environmental, Social areas, and earthquake fault zones, but the impacts are Cities are centers of population with interacting and felt disproportionately by cities. The 2010 Haiti earth- interdependent physical, environmental, and social quake (figure 1), which occurred in the densely popu- systems. Physical systems include extensive infra- lated city of Port-au-Prince, resulted in an estimated structure networks for water, storm water, and sew- 230,000 deaths (DesRoches et al. 2011). In the United age; roadways, bridges, tunnels, and other elements States, New Orleans, New York, and Houston were hard of transportation; electricity, gas, and other types of hit by Hurricanes Katrina (2005), Sandy (2012), and power generation; wireless, Wi-Fi, and wireline com- Harvey (2017). munications; and the commercial, residential, and The very features that make cities desirable places industrial built environment. This short list of urban to live—population concentration, physical infrastruc- physical systems indicates the complexity with which ture, and, often, location near water—also put them at they must interact, interdepend, and integrate to pro- high risk of significant impacts from natural hazards. vide necessary services. And these risks are increasing, because of urban growth Environmental systems include ground-level, botani- and complexity as well as uncertainty associated with cal systems such as forests, wetlands, mangroves, and climate change. farms; the water systems of streams, rivers, lakes, and The concept of resilience has been explored in oceans; animal systems such as insects, mammals, fish, numerous fields, from medicine and psychology to birds, and other creatures; and climate—air tempera- materials science and economics. In this paper we use ture, humidity, pollutants, pollen count, and the like. the following definition: “the ability to prepare and plan These different systems are directly linked to a city’s for, absorb, recover from, and more successfully adapt to resilience and their preservation is an important com- adverse events” (NRC 2012, p. 16). ponent of urban resilience strategies. The impacts of numerous recent natural disasters Finally, cities are social systems. Their citizens live, show that inadequate infrastructure systems make work, commute, and seek leisure using the physi- it increasingly difficult for cities to respond to severe cal infrastructure systems, and they depend on the weather events. In the face of these and other natural natural systems for food, fresh water, and clean air. events, cities across the country recognize the impor- Cities cannot thrive without the people in them, and tance of replacing aging water, power, telecommuni- people cannot thrive without well-functioning, resil- cation, and transportation systems with smarter, more ient physical systems and healthy, abundant environ effective and efficient systems. mental systems.

FIGURE 1 (left) The Haitian National Palace after the 2010 earthquake, which killed over 230,000 people and is considered one of the deadliest natural disasters in the Western Hemisphere. Photo by Reginald DesRoches. (right) Homes near Addicks Reservoir, west of Houston, after Hurricane Harvey, the costliest natural disaster in the United States in 2017. Photo by Philip Bedient used with permission. SUMMER 2018 15

System Interconnectivity ization, poorly planned and managed development, Until recently human systems and their interac- inadequate and fragile infrastructure, and degraded eco- tions with physical and environmental systems lacked systems, all of which contribute to low resilience and interconnectivity. Now, driven by the demands of poor capability to cope in disasters. Unfortunately, data rapid urbanization, increasing broadband connectivity/ suggest that disasters may be increasing in frequency availability, and the reduced cost of sensors, many cities and severity, and their impacts are taking a devastating are investing in smart technologies and systems that toll on many cities. establish interconnectivity within and between social, Because a well-functioning city depends on the inte- physical, and environmental systems. gration, interdependent functioning, and interactive Interconnectivity enables new forms of interaction capabilities of complicated infrastructure systems and between humans and urban physical systems, such as services, strengthening their functioning will increase digital delivery of services, real-time feedback on traffic resilience and improve disaster management. Timely and transportation system performance, and smart emergency communications, for example, are critical, homes that can use machine learning techniques to but current systems fall short in terms of crisis detection, adapt to occupant needs. It is also making it possible alerts, and assistance (NASEM 2017). to introduce sensor infrastructure in natural systems to Developing Smart Resilience develop a real-time understanding of important changes in environmental systems. Smart technologies and systems can be used to create Strengthening the robustness of smart technologies a smart “digital twin” city for monitoring, assessment, and systems, and optimizing interactions within and prediction, and, ultimately, adaptation across systems across social, physical, and environmental systems, (Mohammadi and Taylor 2017) to improve disaster will make cities more efficient, more sustainable, more resilience. equitable, and, ultimately, more resilient. Investment in and deployment of sensor-connected technologies and systems to create smart cities can benefit all four phases of disaster management: mitigation, prepared- Creation of a smart ness, response, and recovery. “digital twin” city enables Smart Cities and the Resilience Imperative monitoring, assessment, There is no formal standardized definition of a smart city, but it involves deploying technologies and systems prediction, and adaptation to interconnect citizens and improve services with the goal of enhancing urban system efficiency. across systems. A report by the International Telecommunication Union (2014, p. 4) defines a smart city as “an innovative city that uses information and communication The rapid expansion of existing cities and the cre- technologies (ICTs) and other means to improve qual- ation of entirely new cities (e.g., Masdar in the United ity of life, efficiency of urban operation and services, Arab Emirates [www.masdar.ae] and Xiongan in China; and competitiveness, while ensuring that it meets the Phillips 2017) offer the opportunity to make cities needs of present and future generations with respect to disaster resilient by design. Urban planning can substan- economic, social and environmental aspects.” And a tially improve communities’ preparedness and capacity report by the UN Commission on Science and Tech- to recover by using sensors in physical and environ- nology for Development (2016) sets out principles for mental systems to diagnose, predict, and adapt. In addi- the design and development of smart cities, spanning tion, smart growth strategies such as flexible land use buildings, mobility, energy, water, waste management, policies, targeted public investment, and community health, and digital layers. engagement in decision making can help communities Notably absent from these definitions is the impact recover more quickly from a disaster, rebuild according of smart systems and technologies on urban resilience. to a shared community vision, and be better prepared Most cities are characterized by sprawl, rapid urban- for a future event. The 16 BRIDGE

For cities and urban regions, the concept of resilience Advances in sensor technologies and wireless commu- moves away from traditional risk assessment, which nications have led to the development and application generally looks at specific hazards, to encompass a range of monitoring systems to assess the real-time condition of possible disruptive events. The focus is on enhanc- of infrastructure, from buried pipelines to dams, bridges, ing system performance in the face of multiple hazards and power and telecommunication systems (Lynch rather than preventing or mitigating losses due to a spe- and Loh 2006). Such monitoring systems are useful for cific event. Resilience planning requires a systems-level tracking the behavior of structures during forced vibra- approach, based on the notion that cities are “systems tion or natural exciting (e.g., wind, live loading). They of systems,” that combines a city’s physical aspects with can also provide information to help cities (1) deter- considerations of human behavior in the context of eco- mine whether changes are needed in the material and/ nomic, physical, and social disruption. or geometric properties of a structural system, including changes to the system connectivity, and (2), more broadly, make both real-time decisions about infra- Resilience planning requires structure safety and long-term investment decisions. Sensor-connected infrastructure systems are critical in a systems-level approach, identifying potential vulnerabilities before catastrophic failure and enhancing infrastructure robustness. based on the notion Robustness also requires the security of financial and that cities are other transactions. Blockchain is a new smart technology that increases the reliability and transparency of trans- “systems of systems.” actions. It can ensure the security of transactions both during and after disasters, when restoring normal daily life—including the ability to make routine purchases The Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engi- and pay bills—is critical to a well-functioning city. neering Research developed a framework that defines The robustness of an urban environmental system can resilient systems and communities as having the follow- be improved by passive solutions such as “green” water ing interconnected properties (Bruneau et al. 2003): retention in coastal cities (e.g., Buffalo Bayou Park in Houston). These can be coupled with active smart • Robustness: The ability to withstand a given level solutions that integrate sensors to monitor the perfor- of stress or demand without degradation or loss of mance and danger levels of hurricanes and floods, such function as the rain gauge sensors in the Houston area bayous • Redundancy: The extent to which elements and com- that were pivotal in providing flood warning during and ponents of a system are substitutable to satisfy func- after Hurricane Harvey, whose impacts could have been tional requirements in the event of a disruption even worse.1

• Resourcefulness: Allocation of the appropriate bud- Smart Redundancy get and capacity to establish priorities and mobilize Redundancy refers to the extent to which alternatives resources after an extreme event can fulfill the functions of disrupted systems. For physi- • Rapidity: The ability to meet priorities and achieve cal systems, alternative transportation routes or backup goals in a timely manner in order to limit losses. electricity can provide system redundancy. Electricity is necessary for many of a city’s essential Smart Robustness physical system services, such as water, power, communications, and public transportation. These functions In the context of resilience, robustness reflects the abil- are particularly critical in the minutes, days, and weeks ity of physical, social, and environmental systems to after a natural disaster. withstand significant degradation from disasters. Physi- cal infrastructure systems that are designed to modern 1 code, are retrofitted, or use advanced materials and A county flood warning system is posted online through the interactive mapping tools of the Harris County Flood Control design concepts, including sensors and “green” methods, District (https://www.hcfcd.org/interactive-mapping-tools/harris- tend to be more robust. county-flood-warning-system/). SUMMER 2018 17

Electrical power networks have become large and highly complex technical systems, geographically distributed, and with varying degrees of connectivity, often requiring constant real-time operation to manage supply and varying demand. Natural disasters can cause damage to a wide geographic area of an electricity system, leading to outages that can last several weeks. For example, over 8 million people along the East Coast were without power after Superstorm Sandy, and many homes and businesses did not return to normal operations for weeks. The cascading effects of power outages on critical systems have been shown to exacerbate the impacts of natural disasters (González et al. 2017; Wu and Dueñas-Osorio 2013). Smart grid technologies can improve the resilience FIGURE 2 A smart mobile sensor used to assess the integrity of of cities by shortening the length of power outages a bridge. Photo by Yang Wang used with permission. and thus significantly reducing the scale and severity of disaster impacts. For example, microgrids can auto- applications identify lesser-known and less-trafficked matically detach from the greater grid and continue to alternatives. Ride and accommodation sharing appli- deliver power to affected customers. This also enables cations post information about open seats in a vehicle utilities to deploy resources to damaged areas of the grid and rooms in a home. When Hurricane Irma struck in to make repairs and restore service. Smart grid tech- September 2017, Airbnb launched a disaster response nologies thus provide redundancy and reconfigurability. program in Florida that enabled providers to offer free Cities also are investing in green infrastructure for rooms to displaced citizens, and Uber capped fares in redundant systems. For example, alternatives to large South Florida, offering hundreds of thousands of dollars storm water drainage projects, such as water retention in free rides to communities in need (Griswold 2017). parks, meet environmental needs while providing a place for storm water to collect during severe flooding. Smart Resourcefulness Atlanta’s Historic Fourth Ward Park (www.h4wpc.org/) Resourcefulness reflects the availability of supplies, was completed in 2011 at a cost of $15 million less than repair crews, and other resources to restore function- the traditional storm water tunnel system. Designed to ality to damaged systems. The 2010 Haiti earthquake capture storm water runoff in an area of the city histori- and Hurricane Irma (2017) in Puerto Rico are clear cally plagued by flooding, it “increases the sewer capac- examples of how lack of resources, supplies, and person- ity, reduces the burden on aging city infrastructure, and nel can severely hamper the ability to recover from a minimizes downstream flooding and property damage.”2 disaster (DesRoches et al. 2011). It is credited with averting substantial flooding in Advances in robotics, cyberphysical systems, and arti- Atlanta during Hurricane Irma when 3½" of rain fell ficial intelligence support resourcefulness through the over a short period of time—the park captured storm development of mobile sensors that can be used after water from a 350-acre area of the city (Sears 2017). a disaster to determine the safety of buildings, bridges, For the urban social system, redundancy can be and other infrastructure. A network of such sensors enabled through smartphone sharing applications, such can autonomously or semiautonomously move sensors as Lyft or Uber for ride sharing, Waze or Google Maps for around a structure to assess it at various locations (Zhu traffic routing, and Airbnb for accommodations. Traffic et al. 2010). Small crawling or flying robots (figure 2) routing applications crowd-sense information from users have shown great promise for infrastructure inspection, about roadway obstructions and delays and can provide particularly on remote sections of a bridge (Wang et al. realistic estimates of travel times. In times of signifi- 2017). cant traffic perturbations, such as evacuations, these Smart resourcefulness has recently emerged in the social system during natural disasters, leading to fun- 2 The park’s features are described at https://beltline.org/parks/ historic-fourth-ward-park/. damental changes in postdisaster response. During and The 18 BRIDGE

95 percent less water compared to traditional farming (Marks 2014). In addition to the sustainability aspect of locally harvested food, if food supply lines are disrupted the availability of food nearby may be critical to survival.

Smart Rapidity Rapidity concerns the ability to quickly restore system functions. Crowd-sensing applications are accelerating the ability to assess natural disasters through physical, social, and environmental systems (Conrado et al. 2016). The US Geological Survey maintains a “Did You Feel It” website3 that allows citizens to indicate the degree to which they feel an earthquake, and the data have been shown to correlate with actual earthquake-induced ground motion (Atkinson and Wald 2007). Applica- FIGURE 3 Image of 622 geotagged microblog postings in Puerto Rico during Tropical Storm Erica on August 28, 2015, with clus- tions are being extended to recognize sentiment of tered postings in San Juan on the northeastern coast. The blue social media microblog postings, with a significant line south of the island is the storm’s centerline, and the blue spatiotemporal correlation between the sentiment level and red dots denote the tracking area using GIS data from the of urban residents and earthquake intensity (Wang National Hurricane Center. and Taylor 2018b). Such applications provide first responders with near real-time information about emer- gent crises to more rapidly deploy emergency services to immediately after Hurricane Harvey, emergency lines areas of need in a city. in Houston were jammed and citizens in need of help Social media data are also being used to enable rapid were not able to reach emergency responders. Some assessments of danger over large areas in physical urban users turned to geotagged social media microblogs on infrastructure, serving as a new and critical resource platforms such as Twitter to indicate the nature of their for rapid attention and recovery in natural disasters emergency and their location. Figure 3 illustrates geo- (Kryvasheyeu et al. 2016). tagged social media postings during Tropical Storm Erica in August 2015 in Puerto Rico. This information Conclusions provides first responders with an alternate channel to The integration of smart technologies and systems with locate citizens in crisis. Other applications and methods a city’s physical, environmental, and social systems can are under development to use social media postings to enhance efficiency, sustainability, and disaster resilience assist first responders (e.g., Wang and Taylor 2015, by improving robustness, redundancy, resourcefulness, 2018a). and rapidity. Emergency response and hazard mitigation Cities do not typically have the land space to sup- officials also need to be involved in smart city planning port the scale of farming required to meet residents’ efforts. daily food consumption needs, but a number of cities Smart technologies and systems can improve disaster are including urban farming approaches in their smart monitoring and risk assessment, thereby strengthening resilience plans. The vulnerability of cities to sudden cities’ ability to predict and prepare for disaster impacts. food shortages after a natural disaster was exposed They can also enhance the ability to respond to citizen in New York after Superstorm Sandy, when the city concerns, monitor infrastructure and environments in experienced persistent power outages, lack of fuel, and crisis, and address associated safety issues. Finally, they closed tunnels, all of which challenged food supplies can support the uninterrupted use or rapid restoration (Mahanta 2013). High-tech urban farming companies of critical services. can automate many aspects of the growing and harvest- ing process, and they can grow fruits and vegetables in vertical stacks indoors with no soil and as much as 3 https://earthquake.usgs.gov/data/dyfi/ SUMMER 2018 19

The promise of smart and resilient cities will be ful- International Telecommunication Union. 2014. Smart filled only when cities broaden their strategic plans to sustainable cities: An analysis of definitions. Technical incorporate smart technology and system implementa- Report, Focus Group on Smart Sustainable Cities, UN tion in order to increase the robustness, redundancy, Development Group. Geneva. resourcefulness, and rapidity of their disaster planning, Kryvasheyeu Y, Chen H, Obradovich N, Moro E, Van Hen- response, and recovery. tenryck P, Fowler J, Cebrian M. 2016. Rapid assessment of disaster damage using social media activity. Science Acknowledgments Advances 2(3):1500779. This material is based on work supported by the National Lynch JP, Loh KH. 2006. A summary review of wireless sen- Science Foundation under Grant No. 1760645. Opin- sors and sensor networks for structural health monitoring. ions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations Shock and Vibration Digest 38(91). expressed in this material are those of the authors and Mahanta S. 2013. New York’s looming food disaster. The do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Atlantic, October 21. Science Foundation. Maps in this paper were created Marks P. 2014. Legume with a view. NewScientist using ArcGIS® software by Esri and OpenStreetMap© 221(2952):17. contributors under CC BY 3.0. The authors thank Mohammadi N, Taylor J. 2017. Smart city digital twins. Pro- Drs. Neda Mohammadi and Yan Wang for contribu- ceedings of the 2017 IEEE Symposium Series on Compu- tions to the figure graphics, and Bridge managing edi- tational Intelligence (SSCI), November 27–December 1, tor Cameron Fletcher for her edits to the article which Honolulu. doi.org/10.1109/ssci.2017.8285439. sharpened its contribution. NASEM [National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine]. 2017. Emergency Alert and Warning Sys- References tems: Current Knowledge and Future Research Directions. Atkinson GM, Wald DJ. 2007. “Did you feel it?” Intensity Washington: National Academies Press. data: A surprisingly good measure of earthquake ground NRC [National Research Council]. 2012. Disaster Resilience: motion. Seismological Research Letters 78:362–368. A National Imperative. Washington: National Academies Bruneau M, Chang SE, Eguchi RT, Lee GC, O’Rourke TD, Press. Reinhorn AM, Shinozuka M, Tierney K, Wallace WA, von Phillips T. 2017. China plans to build new city nearly three Winterfeldt D. 2003. A framework to quantitatively assess times the size of New York. The Guardian, April 4. and enhance the seismic resilience of communities. Earth- Sears S. 2017. Historic Fourth Ward Park holds million dollar quake Spectra 19(4):733–752. secret. CBS46, September 19. Online at www.cbs46.com/ Conrado SP, Neville K, Woodworth S, O’Riordan S. 2016. story/36404840/historic-fourth-ward-park-holds-million- Managing social media uncertainty to support the decision dollar-secret. making process during emergencies. Journal of Decision United Nations Commission on Science and Technology Systems 25:171–181. for Development. 2016. Report of the Secretary-General DesRoches R, Comerio M, Eberhard M, Mooney W, Rix GJ. on smart cities and infrastructure (E/CN.16/2016/2 and 2011. Overview of the 2010 Haiti earthquake. Earthquake Corr.1), Nineteenth Session, May 9–13, Geneva. Spectra 27(S1):S1–S21. Wang Q, Taylor J. 2015. Process map for urban human mobil- González AD, Chapman A, Dueñas-Osorio L, Mesbahi M, ity and civil infrastructure data collection using geosocial D’Souza RM. 2017. Efficient infrastructure restoration networking platforms. ASCE Journal of Computing in strategies using the recovery operator. Computer-Aided Civil Engineering 30(2):04015004. Civil and Infrastructure Engineering 32(12):991–1006. Wang Y, Li Y, Bock T, Lynch JP, Mattila J. 2017. Introduc- Griswold A. 2017. Tech companies are redefining how we tion to the focused section on intelligent robotics for civil respond to natural disasters—in a good way. Quartz Media, infrastructure. International Journal of Intelligent Robotics September 13. Online at https://qz.com/1075435. and Applications 1(3):239–242. Gu D, Gerland P, Pelletier F, Cohen B. 2015. Risks of Expo- Wang Y, Taylor J. 2018a. Urban crisis detection technique: A sure and Vulnerability to Natural Disasters at the City spatial and data driven approach based on latent Dirichlet Level: A Global Overview. UN Department of Economic allocation (LDA) topic modeling. Paper presented at the and Social Affairs, Population Division Technical Paper 2018 ASCE Construction Research Congress, April 2–4, No. 2015/2. New York. New Orleans. The 20 BRIDGE

Wang Y, Taylor J. 2018b. Coupling sentiment and human Zhu D, Yi X, Wang Y, Lee K-M, Guo J. 2010. A mobile sens- mobility in natural disasters: A Twitter-based study of ing system for structural health monitoring: Design and the 2014 South Napa earthquake. Natural Hazards, doi. validation. Smart Materials and Structures 19(5):055011. org/10.1007/s11069-018-3231-1. Wu J, Dueñas-Osorio L. 2013. Calibration and validation of a seismic damage propagation model for interdependent infrastructure systems. Earthquake Spectra 29(3):1021–1041. Radar data can be used for risk assessment and planning for sustainability in land development and infrastructure needs.

Use of Radar Data to Assess Water Infrastructure Resiliency and Sustainability

Theodore V. Hromadka II and Prasada Rao

An efficient and resilient water infrastructure is required for a healthy economy and social well-being. Any breakdown in this critical infrastructure can have serious short- to long-term cascading effects, as evidenced by recent Theodore Hromadka catastrophic flooding in areas around the country. To ensure resilient and sustainable infrastructure, various engineering and scientific aspects need coordinated attention and solution. Research and accurate data assessment are necessary to enable application of the best tools and knowledge to solve problems related to both current and future infrastructure conditions. Otherwise, today’s engineering fixes may fail to address tomorrow’s impacts. Radar is an essential tool in the collection of meteorological data, which are used not only to provide weather forecasts but also to inform the planning and design of water infrastructure appropriate to both daily and storm- induced needs. Data collection and synthesis research programs are critical to the effective evaluation of risk and thus to the sustainability of hydrologic Prasada Rao systems.

Theodore Hromadka is a professor in the Department of Mathematical Sciences at the United States Military Academy, West Point. Prasada Rao is a professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, California State University, Fullerton. The 22 BRIDGE

sanitary sewer systems, flood control, water quality enhancement, and others involved in infrastructure resiliency. Water- related concerns in these areas are being transformed by changes in population, development, habitat, facility use, and the environment, among other stresses. Figure 1 illustrates an environmental stress, as populated US coastal and other low- lying areas have been subject to more frequent severe flooding in the past 25 years (USGCRP 2014). This paper reviews a case study that is relevant to growing FIGURE 1 Flooding due to high precipitation near Port Vincent, Louisiana, August 2016. communities and their water Source: earthobservatory.nasa.gov. infrastructure management: flood control in the severe storm environment of arid regions Background such as the southwestern United States. We estimated Global warming is associated with anticipated negative storm size (i.e., aerial extent) for the arid watersheds of impacts on the boundary conditions assumed in the origi- California’s San Bernardino County (SBC), the largest nal engineering and design of various utilities and systems land-area county in the United States (Hromadka et such as those for water delivery, sanitary sewer, flood con- al. 2018). We analyzed 18 years of rain gauge data and trol, and water quality enhancement, among others. Doppler radar data to develop storm size characteristics These impacts include the occurrence at ports and as they relate to precipitation quantities of high inten- waterways of rising tide levels during storms and related sity and associated rare return frequencies. This effort hydraulic phenomena such as a sudden rise and fall of was carried out under the direction of the County of water levels (e.g., storm surges). In addition, many cities San Bernardino as part of its water resources planning use combined sewer systems, in which sanitary sewage and risk analysis efforts. and storm runoff are designed to occasionally share pip- ing system elements. Under many global warming sce- Doppler: The Radar of Choice for Meteorology narios of possible elevated water levels, these combined Radar technology helps meteorologists provide timely sewer systems may be negatively impacted by elevated and useful rainfall and other forecasts. Ever since radar outlet hydraulic conditions that may reduce overall dis- was first used in the Second World War to detect air- charge and cause overflows. craft, its application for predicting weather phenomena To address these and other impacts, planning and (in particular, precipitation) has been fast maturing, design need to anticipate where the target concerns will with advances in both the equipment used at radar sta- be so that the engineering design arrives positioned to tions and the data processing software that analyzes the handle future demands—much like running to where scanned radar data and processes them to yield precipi- the soccer ball will be rather than running after it. Effec- tation estimates. tive preparation requires accurate data and analysis, and Weather Surveillance Radar (WSR-88D) is the tech- radar is a principal tool in the acquisition of such data nical name for the 159 high-resolution S-band Doppler for water management. weather radars (installed during 1990–96), part of the Water-related engineering and planning technical Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD) network operated fields of great importance include water distribution, by the National Weather Service (NWS; figure 2). The SUMMER 2018 23

WSR-88D operates by sending and receiving microwave pulses in the 2–4 GHz range, known as the S band. Because the WSR- 88D can estimate precipitation at high spatial and temporal resolution, it has great potential for hydrometeorological assessment and use in meteorological and hydrological modeling (Austin 1987; Fulton et al. 1998; Serafin 1996; Smith et al. 1996). Advances in understanding of the science behind precipitation events led to the upgrading in 2011–12 of the WSR-88D to dual polarization, allow- FIGURE 2 Locations of WSR-88D sites in the contiguous United States. Source: radar.weather. ing for enhancements in data gov. quality and addressing some reported limitations (Bringi and Chandrasekar 2001; Collier 2016; Vaccarono et in validation studies, precipitation forecasting, moun- al. 2016). Whereas the originally designed WSR-88D tainous precipitation, error propagation in hydrological transmits and receives radio waves along a single hori- models). They noted that the use of weather radar for zontal polarization, dual polarization radars transmit and precipitation measurements in mountainous regions has receive signals across both horizontal and vertical polar- major limitations—such as interference due to ground izations. The availability of reflected power and phase clutter, beam shielding, and large vertical variability— details along two directions enables the calculation of that strongly affect the accuracy of estimates. additional parameters that can be used to improve pre- Thus radar data and outcomes still require careful cipitation estimates, including better differentiation interpretation and assessment to achieve a desired level between heavy rain, hail, snow, and sleet. of accuracy. In particular, in many areas of engineering and planning Doppler radar remains the primary mea- Errors in Radar-Estimated Precipitation Values surement tool for the assessment of precipitation quan- Studies show, however, that, although Doppler radar tities, so it is important to examine and understand the has contributed significantly to the understanding and uncertainty involved in its use. assessment of storm precipitation and related weather phenomena, radar precipitation estimates are subject to Doppler Radar Assessment Update for Arid various errors and challenges. Regions of San Bernardino County Villarini and Krajewski (2010) provided a detailed A case study of Doppler data for arid SBC areas sought examination of some errors in radar-estimated precipita- to determine correlations between the Doppler aerial tion values, and before that Hunter (1996) presented an coverage and precipitation gauge data corresponding to in-depth discussion of various precipitation estimation selected storm events. The area is approximately 20,000 errors and potential remedies. Krajewski and colleagues square miles and monitored by 77 precipitation gauges (2010, p. 92) quantified some of the uncertainties with hourly (or shorter-duration) data (excluding daily in radar precipitation estimates and concluded that, gauges). Based on the data from these 77 gauges, 156 although radar estimates improved over the last two storm dates with return frequencies estimated (using decades, “comprehensive characterization of uncertainty NWS data) at more than 10 years were identified of radar-rainfall estimation has not been achieved.” between 1997 and 2015. Berne and Krajewski (2013) discussed some of the In addition to the arid region of SBC, radar sites in challenges for the use of weather radar in hydrology (i.e., Yuma (KYUX), Edwards (KEYX), Santa Ana (KSOX), The 24 BRIDGE

Las Vegas (KESX), and San Diego (KNKX) were ana- area reduction factor (DARF) curves for the county. lyzed for storm events. Once the storms of interest were The DARF takes into account the size of the watershed: identified, the relevant NEXRAD data were down- a smaller one may have a relatively uniform rainfall over loaded from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric its entire area than a larger watershed. The larger the Administration (NOAA) website (www.ncdc.noaa. watershed, the smaller the DARF. gov/nexradinv/) and used in the creation of a Doppler The similarity between the DARF curves and the animation for the 156 storm events. From these ani- graphs developed from the radar data suggests that mations, 3-hour, 2-hour, 1-hour, 30-minute, and continued monitoring is necessary for all the relevant 15-minute peak rainfall durations were identified and, water recourses variables as well as hydrometeorology based on the intensities of each peak duration interval, variables, particularly as changes occur with new under- the 11 most significant storms were selected for further standing of the variables. analysis. The Doppler data were used to calculate average rain- Conclusions fall quantity (precipitation depth) for each target peak The planet’s hydrometeorological responses are contin- duration, and the resulting values enabled computation ually changing as urbanization spreads and global tem- of an average normalized estimated precipitation depth peratures rise. Data show evidence of extremely severe for each interval. The aerial extent versus estimated and rare precipitation events associated with floods and average precipitation depth for a given interval was the failure of engineered systems such as flood control plotted (figure 3), together with the published depth channels, dams, and others.

FIGURE 3 Comparison of depth area reduction factor (DARF) curves and Doppler radar (KESX, KEYX, KNKX, KSOX) synthesized graphs for selected storms in San Bernardino County (CA) and adjacent regions, 2004–15. KESX = Las Vegas; KEYX = Edwards Air Force Base; KNKX = San Diego; KSOX = Santa Ana. Reprinted with permission from Hromadka et al. (2018). SUMMER 2018 25

Analysis of storms that occurred in 1997–2015 in Acknowledgments the County of San Bernardino, based on data from The authors acknowledge the contributors who partici- precipitation gauges and Doppler radar, has resulted in pated in this effort, including, but by no means limited valuable information that can be used for a variety of to, Rene A. Perez, Kenneth C. Eke, Hany F. Peters, investigations in engineering and planning. Important COL Howard D. McInvale, Cameron H. Fletcher, and applications include predictions of risk assessment and students at CSU, Fullerton. sustainability for land development and infrastructure needs in these and other increasingly populated arid References regions. Austin PM. 1987. Relation between measured radar reflec- Given the possibility of major impacts from over- tivity and surface rainfall. Monthly Weather Review arching conditions such as anticipated global warming 115(5):1053–1070. effects, this ongoing data collection program and analy- Berne A, Krajewski WF. 2013. Radar for hydrology: Unful- sis provide crucial information for infrastructure design- filled promise or unrecognized potential? Advances in ers and planners about an important aspect of storm Water Resources 51:357–366. risk analysis, particularly the DARF used in estimating Bringi VN, Chandrasekar V. 2001. Polarimetric Doppler storm size for analysis of storm events and their impacts. Weather Radar: Principles and Applications. New York: Effective and reliable infrastructure performance and Cambridge University Press. risk reduction require continuous relevant data collec- Collier CG. 2016. Hydrometeorology. Chichester UK: John tion, synthesis, and statistical assessment to evaluate Wiley & Sons. risk with respect to performance goals and sustain- Fulton R, Breidenbach R, Seo J, Miller D, O’Bannon T. 1998. ability. These methods are only as effective as the data The WSR-88D rainfall algorithm. Weather Forecasting obtained, although advanced statistical and compu- 13:377–395. tational methods can also enhance accuracy in the Hromadka TV, Rao P, Perez R, McInvale D. 2018. Doppler assessment and understanding of hydrometeorological radar and precipitation depth correlation for the arid region patterns and trends. of San Bernardino County. Submitted by the authors to Although the focal point of our analysis is the Water Resources Division, County of San Bernardino. characteristics of storms in arid areas, other hydro Hunter S. 1996. WSR-88D radar rainfall estimation: Capa- meteorological factors—such as weather patterns, bilities, limitations and potential improvements. National watershed characteristics, and hydrological precondi- Weather Digest 20(4):26–38. tions—need to be carefully measured, monitored, and Krajewski WF, Villarini G, Smith JA. 2010. Radar-rainfall evaluated to determine trends and patterns. Informa- uncertainties: Where are we after thirty years of effort? Bul- tion about these trends and characteristics is necessary letin of the American Meteorological Society 91:87–94. for urban infrastructure planners to make knowledge- Serafin RJ. 1996. The evolution of atmospheric measurement able decisions about the vulnerability of regions to systems. In: Historical Essays on Meteorology 1919–1995, anticipated changing conditions. Those decisions can Fleming JR, ed. Boston: American Meteorological Society. then be incorporated in assessments of risk and sustain- Smith JA, Seo DJ, Baeck ML, Hudlow MD. 1996. An inter- ability and used to guide planning and decisions about comparison study of NEXRAD precipitation estimates. infrastructure maintenance and upgrades. Water Resources Research 32(7):2035–2045. USGCRP [US Global Climate Change Research Program]. Note from the Funding Agency 2014. Climate Change Impacts in the United States, figure This research was an academic exercise to under- 2.16. Washington. stand the relationship between radar data and rainfall Vaccarono M, Bechini R, Chandrasekar CV, Cremonini R, rates and must not be used for design considerations. Cassardo C. 2016. An integrated approach to monitoring the The County of San Bernardino Flood Control Dis- calibration stability of operational dual-polarization radars. trict, which provided partial funding for this study, has Atmospheric Measurement Techniques 9:5367–5383. embarked on an aggressive program to install more rain Villarini G, Krajewski WF. 2010. Review of the different gauges in the arid regions of the county, and these will sources of uncertainty in single polarization radar-based provide more localized rainfall data for future research. estimates of rainfall. Surveys in Geophysics 31(1):107–129. New materials, technologies, design techniques, monitoring equipment and procedures, and sensors can and should be used to make bridges safer.

Are Our Bridges Safe?

Andrzej S. Nowak and Olga Iatsko

Transportation, including the road network, is a very important part of the national economy, providing necessary connections between people, business, and industries. The US Interstate Highway System was initiated Andrzej Nowak by President Eisenhower in the 1950s to benefit commercial and military transportation. Its nearly 50,000 miles were largely completed in 35 years and are now part of over 4 million miles of roads across the country (FHWA 2015). Bridges increase the efficiency of the road network operation and are a vital component of the nation’s transportation system and economy. Loss of a major bridge can have national impacts.

Background Half of the country’s bridges are owned and administered by the states, the other half by counties and cities; very few are privately or federally owned. State-owned bridges are generally in better shape and regularly inspected (at least once every two years); counties and cities often lack sufficient funds for Olga Iatsko inspections, maintenance, and repairs. Although the percentage of bridges that are in poor condition decreases from year to year, this is mostly because of an increase in the number of newly

Andrzej Nowak is a professor and the Elton and Lois G. Huff Eminent Scholar Chair, and Olga Iatsko is a graduate research assistant, both in the Department of Civil Engineering at Auburn University. SUMMER 2018 27

built structures rather than improved maintenance. The The average age of US bridges is 43 years, and many percentages of structurally deficient bridges around the were designed before 1970 for a service life of 50 years. country range from 1.6 percent (Texas and Nevada) to Those bridges are thus nearing the end of their design 23.3 percent (Rhode Island) (FHWA 2017). The varia- life. tion is due to differences in state policies regarding the About 10 percent of all bridges have one or more inspection, maintenance, and repair of bridges. deteriorated structural components (ASCE 2017). For The National Bridge Inventory (NBI1) was created example, an inspection of the Benjamin Franklin Bridge to support the use of data about the country’s 614,387 between Philadelphia and Camden, New Jersey, built bridges on public roads, 25 percent (145,104) of which in 1926, revealed that over 10 percent of the wires in are part of the National Highway System (NHS). With the main suspension cables are corroded and broken data collected in accordance with the National Bridge (Weidlinger Associates 2000). Structural deterioration Inspection Standards2 and submitted annually to the of materials and components accounts for 9 percent of Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), the NBI bridge failures. includes basic information about every bridge—its dimensions (span length, roadway width), material, structural type, location, maintenance plan, repair his- Bridges built before 1970 tory, and traffic. The availability of bridge failure data, however, is are nearing the end rather limited. A bridge fails when it cannot perform its function, for example because of excessive vibra- of their design life. tions or deflection, cracking of concrete, fatigue cracking of steel, or, in drastic cases, collapse of components Growth in the volume and weight of truck traffic dur- or the whole structure. A 25-year review of data found ing recent decades is seriously affecting the long-term that bridge failures occur with an annual frequency of performance of bridges and increasing the need for approximately 1 per 5,000, but, because of incomplete maintenance. Bridge damage or failure is often due to or incorrect information about bridge failures reported extreme truck loading or collisions involving oversized by state DOTs, the actual failure rate is significantly and/or overweight vehicles. Many bridges were designed higher (Cook et al. 2015). for loads that were specified years ago, and their design About half of collapsed bridges were structurally defi- loads are now too small for the current traffic. In addi- cient as a result of age, excessive loads, extreme weather, tion, with larger trucks on the roads, many bridges do inadequate maintenance, and other aspects. Continu- not provide adequate clearance in width and/or height. ous corrosion and fatigue can lead to loss of the load Vehicle (or vessel) collision accounts for 7 percent of carrying capacity and a major collapse. bridge failures. The estimated total cost of US bridge repairs is About 60,000 bridges (10 percent) are posted for a $123 billion (ASCE 2017). To avoid the high costs of weight or speed limit. Violation of the weight limit may replacement or repair, bridge evaluation must be done lead to substantial damage or even collapse. But 80 per- at regular intervals and accurately assess load carrying cent of bridges with a posted weight limit are on local capacity based on predicted loads and expected changes roads where truck loads are not properly monitored (if in capacity (deterioration). at all). Overweight vehicles account for 12 percent of bridge failures. What Are the Problems with Bridges? According to NBI data, about 60 percent of US Existing bridges are subject to aging, deterioration, bridges are made of concrete, 30 percent are made of corrosion, cracking, delamination, material fatigue, steel, about 3 percent of wood, and the rest from other and chemical degradation. These may occur naturally materials (masonry, aluminum iron, etc.). Steel beam/ over time or as a result of conditions such as traffic and girder bridges are more prone to collapse than other weather events. Failures due to overload or deteriora- types. The causes are mostly extraordinary or extreme tion are strongly age related. events that produce stress levels significantly exceeding the capacity of the bridge, especially hydraulic disasters 1 https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/bridge/nbi.cfm such as a flood or scour (erosion of the soil base under 2 https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/bridge/nbis.cfm The 28 BRIDGE

the foundations of piers or abutments), which account How Is Bridge Safety Measured? for over 50 percent of such events. A bridge’s safety margin is the difference between load and resistance. Failure occurs when the load exceeds a What Is the Role of Design Codes? bridge’s load carrying capacity or resistance. The main stakeholders in any construction are the But the loads acting on a bridge usually cannot be owners/investors and the users/occupants. The former accurately predicted; they are random in nature. And are interested in keeping costs down and maximizing the ability of the structure to resist loads depends on profits; the latter are interested in having a safe and func- mechanical properties of materials (steel, concrete), tional structure. The owner/investor hires the designer connections, and dimensions that also cannot be pre- and contractor, so they represent the owner/investor’s dicted with certainty and are random in nature. Because side. There may be a conflict of interest between keep- load and resistance are random variables, the safety mar- ing costs down and ensuring safety and functionality. gin is also a random variable. The probability of failure, The role of design codes is to balance these two con- Pf, is the probability of load exceeding resistance. Safety, flicting interests. or reliability, is defined as 1 – Pf. A structure can be in one of two states: safe performance or failure. The borderline between these two Excessive shear can occur states is called a limit state and a mathematical formu- lation of the limit state is called a limit state function. without warning, Calculation of Pf requires knowledge of the limit state function and statistical parameters of load and resis- and an overloaded tance. However, it is convenient to measure safety in compression member can terms of the reliability index, β, defined as the ratio of the mean value and standard deviation of the safety buckle without warning. margin. There are several methods—from simple for- mulas to Monte Carlo simulations—for calculating β, taking into account the type of distribution function, AASHTO design codes (AASHTO 2017) for bridges nonlinearity of the limit state function, and correlation specify the loads to be considered by the designer. The between variances (Nowak and Collins 2013). loads have to be conservative to provide a safety margin by using load factors. The codes also articulate proce- How Is the Level of Required Safety Determined? dures for selecting the type of structure and materials Safety is a commodity and depends to a certain extent that will be sufficient to resist expected loads, again on the availability of resources. Target reliability levels with a conservative safety factor. The determination of depend on the location of a structure, its components, safety factors has evolved from one based on intuition to and costs associated with safety measures. Selection of an advanced reliability-based code calibration (Nowak the target reliability index depends mostly on two fac- and Iatsko 2017). tors: the consequences of failure and the cost of safety. According to AASHTO (2017), a bridge’s expected performance life is 75 years (Kulicki et al. 2007). The Determining the Reliability Index expectation can be expressed in terms of the probability The consequences of exceeding a limit state can vary of failure that is acceptable to society: if the probabil- significantly. For example, the single passage of a heavy ity is too high then the bridge may require expensive vehicle that results in a deflection larger than the limit repairs or replacements, while a very low probability of may not create an immediate problem—but for a steel failure can be prohibitively expensive to achieve. There- beam it can cause a permanent deformation or even col- fore, the development of a design code depends on the lapse. Beams in flexure when overloaded typically show answers to the following three fundamental questions: some signs of distress, such as cracking and large deflec- • How is bridge safety measured? tion, so the structure can be closed and/or evacuated before a collapse. However, excessive shear can occur • How is the level of required safety determined? without warning, as a brittle fracture. Similarly, an over- • How is safety implemented? loaded compression member can buckle without warning. SUMMER 2018 29

The target reliability indices (βT) in bridge design resistance factors is the requirement that the reliability codes are different for beams and columns, depending index be not less than the target value. on the expected failure scenario. The βT for the deflec- The code assumes that the quality of workmanship tion limit state can be as low as 0 (which corresponds to is either good or average. However, a review of engi- 50 percent probability of failure) if the consequences of neering practice shows that most failures are due to exceeding it are negligible. human error (other causes are extreme events such as In the AASHTO (2017) code, for a ductile mode of fires, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, colli- failure, such as loss of flexural load carrying capacity for sions). Surveys of structural failures (e.g., Nowak 1986) steel and concrete beams, the βT is 3.5 and corresponds indicate that half of the errors are in the design and the to a probability of failure of 0.02 percent. For a brittle other half in the construction. The errors are associ- mode of failure, such as shear capacity of concrete beams ated with lack of understanding, miscommunication, or buckling failure of columns, the βT is 4.0 and corre- neglected or inappropriate maintenance, and wrong sponds to a probability of failure of 0.003 percent. With construction procedures. prestressed concrete, cracking caused by a very heavy truck can be a problem if it occurs too often; a single passage is generally not a concern and therefore a βT of A major challenge for 1.0 is sufficient and corresponds to a failure probability of 15 percent. bridges is growth in

Calculating the Costs of Safety vehicle volume and weight. The other factor to be considered when determining Over 20 percent of trucks the target reliability is the cost of safety, which is a function of expected additional expenses or savings significantly exceed resulting from changes in the safety margin. How much can be saved by reducing the safety margin? legal load limits. How much does it cost to increase safety? If safety is cheap, a higher target reliability index can easily be In addition to efforts to reduce human error, safety justified; if the cost to increase safety is too high, a can be enhanced through the development of new lower βT may be tolerated. materials that are durable, long-lasting, and economical; For example, the βT will be very different for newly new technologies that allow for faster construction and designed bridge girders and for existing structures. The minimal traffic obstruction; and new design procedures cost of increasing the safety margin for a structure that using advanced analytical tools. New sensor technol- is still on the computer is relatively low: selecting a ogy should be applied for diagnostics and monitoring of larger steel beam from a catalogue may increase the structural performance, with warning systems for signs total cost by a negligible amount. In contrast, increas- of distress. And bridge traffic loads can be better con- ing the load carrying capacity of an existing bridge can trolled by a new generation of weigh-in-motion devices be very expensive as it may involve closing the structure that are accurate and reliable. to traffic, bringing in equipment, extensive labor, and so What Is the Future for Bridges? on. The βT for newly designed bridge girders is 3.5 and for existing girders 2.5, corresponding to 0.02 percent Bridges can serve for over 75 years if they are properly and 0.62 percent probability of failure, respectively. built and maintained. New materials, technologies, design techniques, analytical methods, monitoring How Is Safety Implemented? equipment and procedures, and sensors can and should The safety margin is implemented through the design be used to make bridges safer throughout their perfor- code, which specifies load values, and factors that sup- mance life. They must be complemented by efforts to port safety, as well as the required load carrying capacity ensure quality in design, construction, maintenance, (or resistance) and resistance factors. Design code pro- and operation. visions are based on available statistical parameters of One of the major challenges is growth in vehicle size load and resistance. The selection criterion for load and and weight. Recent traffic measurements indicate that The 30 BRIDGE

over 20 percent of trucks significantly exceed legal load Acknowledgments limits. Repeated passage of heavy vehicles can cause The authors thank NAE editor Cameron Fletcher, who the fatigue of structural materials, resulting in more generously dedicated her time to review this paper. frequent repair/replacement—or collapse. Effective law Her conscientiousness and valuable comments are enforcement and weigh-in-motion monitoring can pre- appreciated. vent illegally overloaded vehicles from damaging roads and bridges. References For construction, there are significant new devel- AASHTO [American Association of State Highway and opments in materials, especially composites, but they Transportation Officials]. 2017. AASHTO LRFD Bridge require more research to assess long-term performance. Design Specifications. Washington. New technologies allow for significant reduction in the ASCE [American Society of Civil Engineers]. 2017. ASCE’s time required for construction: structural components 2017 Infrastructure Report Card. Reston VA. Online at are built in the plant, delivered to the site, and put in www.infrastructurereportcard.org. place in a short time (e.g., overnight). However, time Cook W, Barr PJ, Halling MW. 2015. Bridge failure rate. Journal pressure can result in a higher probability of errors, of Performance of Constructed Facilities 29(3):04014080. resulting in tragic failures. FHWA [Federal Highway Administration]. 2015. Highway The threat of terrorist attacks points to the need to Statistics 2015. Washington. Online at https://www.fhwa. safeguard national infrastructure facilities. A better dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2015/. approach is needed for risk assessment of highway FHWA. 2017. Deficient bridges by highway system. National bridges, involving identification and sensitivity analysis Bridge Inventory. Online at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ of various failure modes and scenarios associated with bridge/nbi/no10/defbr17.cfm. terrorist acts. Structures should be assessed for vulner- Kulicki JM, Prucz Z, Clancy C, Mertz D, Nowak AS. 2007. ability to terrorist attack, with recommended preven- Updating the Calibration Report for AASHTO LRFD tion procedures and damage control measures. Code. Project no. NCHRP 20-7/186. Washington: Trans- portation Research Board. Online at http://onlinepubs.trb. Conclusion org/onlinepubs/archive/NotesDocs/20-07(186)_FR.pdf. In general, US bridges are safe, but their continued Nowak AS. 1986. Modeling Human Error in Structural safety depends on rigorous quality control and adher- Design and Construction. Proceedings of a Workshop ence to design codes and guides at all stages: Sponsored by the National Science Foundation. Reston • planning and design—careful review, especially of VA: American Society of Civil Engineers. new procedures; Nowak AS, Collins KR. 2013 Reliability of Structures, 2nd ed. Boca Raton: CRC Press. • construction—examination of materials and tech- Nowak AS, Iatsko O. 2017. Revised load and resistance fac- nologies, on-site inspections; tors for the AASHTO LRFD Bridge Design Specifications. • service—regular inspections and the performance of PCI Journal 62(3):46–58. required maintenance; Weidlinger Associates. 2000. Reliability of the North Cable of the Benjamin Franklin Bridge. New York. • operation—effective enforcement of laws and control of traffic loads to prevent illegally overloaded vehicles from damaging roads and bridges; and, • as needed, repairs, rehabilitations, and replacements. The reliability of the US electric power system is increasingly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, use of renewable energy sources, and cyberattacks.

The US Electric Power System Infrastructure and Its Vulnerabilities

Theodore U. Marston

The US power infrastructure is one of the largest and most critical infra- structures in the world. The country’s financial well-being, public health, and national security depend on it to be a reliable source of electricity to industries, commercial entities, residential facilities, government, and military organizations. Considering the complexity and age of most of the equipment in the US Theodore Marston is prin- power infrastructure, the lifetime reliability is extraordinary—and it has cipal, Marston Consulting. improved in the last ten years (NERC 2017). Future system reliability may be challenged, however, by the effects of climate change, increasing supplies of renewable energy, and potential cyberattacks.

Background The electric power system has three principal components: generation, high- voltage transmission (moving the electricity efficiently from the point of generation to load centers), and distribution (supplying the electricity to customers) (figure 1). The owners and operators of the US electrical system are numerous: more than 3,100 providers sell over 3.7 million gigawatt hours (GWh) of electricity worth over $375 billion to almost 150 million customers in the United States (APPA 2018). And they are diverse, with very different ownership structures, financing options, rate structures, and regulation (table 1). The 32 BRIDGE

Basic structure of the electric system

Color Key: Transmission lines Subtransmission Black: Generation 500, 345, 230, and 138 kV customer Blue: Transmission 26kV and 69kV Green: Distribution Substation step-down transformer

Primary customer 13kV and 4kV

Generator Transmission Generating station step-up customer transformer 138kV or 230kV Secondary customer 120 V and 240 V

FIGURE 1 Schematic of the US electric power system (the high-voltage transmission system), from generation to transmission to distribution. Adapted from US-Canada Power System Outage Task Force (2004).

TABLE 1 Summary of US utility characteristics

Type of utility Management Financing Revenue Regulation Infrastructure Investor owned Corporate with Bonds and debt Rates set to Rates set by state Own generation, shareholders recover costs and public utility/ transmission, and reasonable return service commissions distribution systems to investors Publicly owned Local entities Tax-free bonds Nonprofit, rates set Rates set by utility Primarily distribution, and public to recover costs and governing board but can own officials secure investment or city council with generation for new facilities public input Cooperative Board elected Loans, grants, and Nonprofit, set Rates set by board Typically distribution from members private financing to recover costs, with some generation from members margin for and transmission replacement

There are three primary types of utility owner/ agility, and small, regulated profit margins. The success- operators: investor-owned (IOU), publicly owned ful nexus of these very different sectors requires close (California Energy Commission 2016), and coopera- cooperation. tive (https://www.electric.coop). Unlike countries with a nationalized electricity supply system, the US system Power Generation requires support from ratepayers, shareholders, and tax- The complex power system must operate on a “just in payers to fund upgrades and improvements. time” basis because there is no efficient means to store The overarching challenge for the US power system electricity at a commercial scale. There are over 8,000 is how to maintain or replace the aging infrastructure, generating units connected to the US electricity supply given the diverse set of owners/operators and financing system.1 In 2017 fossil fuels generated about 63 percent mechanisms. In contrast to the high-tech sector, where of the electricity, nuclear 20 percent, and renewables the turnover of technologies is measured in months the remaining 18 percent (EIA 2017; table 2). and characterized by high agility and potentially high profit margins, the electricity system is characterized by 1 Information from the US Energy Information Administration a capital stock turnover rate measured in decades, low (https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=65&t=3). SUMMER 2018 33

TABLE 2 Use and capacity of US generation technologies, 2016. Data from EIA (2017).

Generation technology % of generation % of rated capacity Asset usea Natural gas 33.8 41 0.82 Coal 30.4 25 1.22 Nuclear 19.7 9 2.19 Renewables (total) 14.9 21 0.71 - Hydropower 6.5 10 0.65 - Wind 5.6 11 (all nonhydro 0.76 (all nonhydro renewables combined) renewables combined) - Biomass 1.5 Included in the number above Included in the number above - Solar 0.9 Included in the number above Included in the number above - Geothermal 0.4 Included in the number above Included in the number above Other fossil fuel (oil, petroleum coke, 1.2 4 0.30 and other industrial gases) a ratio of generation realized to generation capacity

The oldest generators are mostly hydropower and High-Voltage Transmission System date from the 1940s or before. Most coal-fired plants date from the 1970s and ’80s, and nuclear plants were Components of the System built between the late 1960s and 1980s. The most The US electricity supply system has more than 600,000 recent growth is in natural gas and renewable plants circuit miles of alternating current (AC) transmission since 2000. lines, of which 240,000 operate at high voltages (i.e., Since 2010 a number of electric generating plants >230 kilovolts, kV).2 This extensive structure is neces- have retired, predominantly coal- and gas-fired boilers sary to move the electricity from the bulk generators as well as some nuclear plants. Almost 50 gigawatts to the load centers and to provide the redundancy and (GW) of coal capacity were retired through 2017, and diversity required to ensure reliable electric power for 13 more are scheduled in 2018. Approximately 22 GW all customers. of natural gas–fired boiler/steam turbine capacity was This high-voltage transmission system (HVTS) retired in the same period. The retirements are offset comprises towers and conductors and a large number by the addition of natural gas–fired combined cycle and of transformers, circuit breakers, switches, and control renewable facilities (EIA 2011; NREL 2017). systems. Much of the latter equipment is in 70,000 or so The states have the means and the authority to substations (DOE 2015) at the generating source, along mandate cleaner generation, and there is a concerted the HVTS (to maintain voltage and flow), at the load effort by most to reduce reliance on fossil fuels: 37 have centers, or in the distribution systems (discussed below). adopted either renewable portfolio standard (RPS) laws In addition to the AC lines, there are about 1,800 or voluntary RPS targets to increase the level of renew- miles of direct current (DC) lines in the HVTS rated able electricity generation (NCSL 2017); the standards at 400–600 kV. The DC lines permit interaction among and goals range from 2 percent (South Carolina by the four North American power grid interconnections: 2021) to 100 percent (Hawaii by 2040). Recently, New Eastern, Western, Quebec, and the Electric Reliability York and Illinois included nuclear-generated electricity Council of Texas (figure 3). in their goals to reduce carbon emissions (NEI 2018); other states, including Wisconsin and New Jersey, are How the System Works considering similar legislation. The state-level RPS The flow of electricity in the supply system requires an efforts are successful, as shown in figure 2. array of substations. High-voltage substations connect and stabilize the high-voltage transmission systems. The

2 Information from Edison Electric Institute (www.eei.org/ issuesandpolicy/transmission/Pages/default.aspx). The 34 BRIDGE

MW 240,000 1 220,000 PV CSP 200,000 Wind 180,000 Geothermal Biomass 160,000 Hydropower 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Sources: EIA, LBNL, SEIA/GTM Reported values may vary from those included in previous versions of the Data Book due to retroactive changes in source data. 1 Grid-connected only; a de-rate factor of 77% has been applied to convert PV installed nameplate capacity from MWdc to MWac. Renewable Electricity in the United States | December 2017

FIGURE 2 US renewable electricity nameplate capacity by source, 2006–16. CSP = concentrating solar power; MW = megawatts; PV = photovoltaics. Source: DOE (2017).

FIGURE 3 US-Canada electricity system regional interconnections. The cross-hatched area between the SPP RE and SERC denotes overlap between the interconnects. ERCOT = Electric Reliability Council of Texas; FRCC = Florida Reliability Coordinating Council; MRO = Midwest Reliability Organization; NERC = North American Electric Reliability Corporation; NPCC = North east Power Coordinating Council; RE = Reliability Entity; RFC = ReliabilityFirst Corporation; SERC = Southeast Electric Reliability Council; SPP = Southwest Power Pool; WECC = Western Electricity Coordinating Council. This image is the property of NERC, available at https://www. nerc.com/AboutNERC/keyplayers/ PublishingImages/NERC_ Interconnections_Color_072512. jpg. It may not be reproduced in whole or part without prior express written permission from NERC. SUMMER 2018 35

electricity is generated at less than 34 kV, but the HVTS system reliability, robustness, and capacity without the operates at a much higher voltage to minimize transmis- need to add transmission lines (an arduous and expen- sion line losses, so a step-up substation is required. To sive process). These changes can increase the carrying connect with the load centers, step-down substations capacity of the system by 30 percent or more (NETL then reduce the voltage to less than 69 kV and feed into 2010). distribution substations, which transmit electricity to the consumer. A few converter substations convert the high-voltage AC to high-voltage DC for the regional interconnections. New technology includes The high-voltage transformers, particularly those of advanced controls that 345 kV and above, are critical to the proper functioning of the electric system. In the US HVTS there are improve system reliability, about 2,100 transformers rated at 345 kV and above (DOE 2015). Such transformers are very expensive robustness, and ($2–$7.5 million each), large (up to 56' wide × 40' long capacity without adding × 45' high), and heavy (up to 410 tons); have very long lead times for procurement (typically 24 months); and transmission lines. are traditionally custom designed for each application for maximum efficiency. Generally, there are few, if any, spare transformers with ratings above 345 kV in The addition of renewables (e.g., wind, solar) in the utilities’ storage yards. Like most of the US electricity generation mix places stress on the HVTS because of supply system, most of these large transformers are near their inherent intermittency. The grid must remain bal- end-of-life design conditions (DOE 2012). anced with tight voltage and frequency limits, and the The operation and planning of the HVTS in the more nondispatchable (intermittent) generation feed- United States have evolved in most areas from control ing the system, the more difficult the system control and by traditional, vertically integrated utilities to either the more reserve generation required to meet demand. regional transmission operators (RTOs) or independent Accelerating the transition to fully deployed smart system operators (ISOs); all three types are subject to grid technology will enhance control of the HVTS as the rules of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commis- power flow demands increase between regions. But, as sion (FERC 2018). An ISO operates the high-voltage discussed below, there is a tradeoff between smart con- electricity grid, administers the region’s wholesale elec- trol systems, which require the increased use of internet- tricity market, and provides reliability planning for the connected devices, and the potential for cyberattack region’s electricity system. RTOs have a similar role, but (NIST 2014). have more authority and responsibility for coordinating, controlling, and monitoring the operation of their Distribution System region’s transmission system.3 There are still US regions The last segment of the electricity supply system is the where vertically integrated utilities exist; for example, distribution system (DS), which takes the electricity off in the West and the Southeast they still control about the HVTS using step-down transformers and distributes 40 percent of US electricity. it to the consumer, such as a residence or a commercial or industrial facility. This segment accounts for about Changes in the HVTS 35 percent of the overall system costs; US investment in There are at least two drivers of major changes in the the distribution system since 2000 totals over $400 bil- HVTS: technology and the changing landscape of gen- lion (EEI 2017). It is also the most complicated—most eration to more renewables. The technological driver is outages result from problems in the distribution system. the introduction of a smart grid, which uses electronic There are neither standards for DS reliability devices to replace the electromechanical devices origi- (Warwick et al. 2016) nor federal agency oversight of nally incorporated in the HVTS in the 1950s. New the system (as provided by FERC for the HVTS). State technology includes advanced controls that improve regulators for the IOUs and the managing boards for the public utilities have regulatory responsibility for distri- 3 ISO/RTO Council, www.isorto.org/about/role The 36 BRIDGE bution; DS operation, maintenance, and planning are resilience of the system, it will also increase the number the responsibility of the local utility. of entry points for potential cyberattacks (NIST 2014). Traditionally, the DS is located aboveground. There are To improve DS reliability and resilience, utilities are over 5.5 million miles of distribution lines in the United implementing a suite of measures, including distribu- States and over 180 million power poles (Warwick et tion automation, real-time fault analysis, and outage al. 2016). The undergrounding of electricity distribu- management systems. In addition, real-time pricing tion began in major cities in the late 19th century and of electricity will contribute to the levelling of peak then spread to some suburban regions of large cities. Put- electricity demand, reducing the need for additional ting the DS underground has many advantages, such as generation. But substantial investment—as much as improved aesthetics and greater resistance to wind, fire, $5 trillion—is required to transition to full automation and ice damage. But there are disadvantages as well, such (Rhodes 2017). as greater flooding risk, higher costs, and more disruptive maintenance (Sharma 2017). Major Vulnerabilities The “reintroduction” of electric vehicles4 in the The US electricity supply system, while very reliable, United States may affect the distribution system of the faces many events that challenge its reliability. These future (Bullis 2013). Currently, less than 1 percent of can be divided into natural or environmental threats electricity is used for transportation (EIA 2018), but (table 3) and human-related threats (table 4) (Preston with the development of modern electric cars and et al. 2017). incentives to deploy them, the demand for electricity Historically, natural events, especially severe weather, (especially in the evening) may increase substantially. are the greatest contributor to loss of system reliability There is plenty of generation and transmission capac- (McLinn 2010). The most recent DOE Office of Elec- ity to meet this demand, but the increased charging tricity annual report on electric disturbances shows requirements may challenge the distribution system, that, in 2017, 149 events in the United States met their depending on when and where vehicle batteries are reporting criteria (DOE 2018), and the cumulative num- charged (Bullis 2013). ber of customers affected was almost 5.2 million. Severe weather accounted for 51 percent of the events, but affected 92.4 percent of the customers. Physical attacks and vandalism represented about 23 percent of the The increased charging events but affected only about 0.5 percent of customers.

requirements of electric Electric System Resilience, Risk Assessment, vehicles may challenge the and Management Resilience is different from reliability, which is the abil- distribution system. ity of the system to deliver electricity to the customer in the quantity and quality demanded (Clark-Ginsberg 2016). The National Infrastructure Advisory Council Microgrids are distributed generation and storage defines four dimensions of resilience (Berkeley and resources in the DS that can be cooperatively managed Wallace 2010): to form separate, “islanded” small grids in the event of • Robustness: the ability to absorb shocks and continue a disturbance on the larger integrated grid (Warwick et operating al. 2016). The management of distributed generation and microgrids requires a high degree of automation. • Resourcefulness: the ability to manage a crisis during In particular, photovoltaic systems and electric vehi- its evolution cles connected to the DS require the ability to man- • Rapid recovery: the ability to return service as quickly age bidirectional power flow on a real-time basis. But as possible while DS automation will improve the reliability and • Adaptability: the ability to improve system resilience 4 Before the practical application of the electric starter in 1912, based on lessons learned from past incidents or near one third of all automobiles in the United States were electric misses. powered. SUMMER 2018 37

TABLE 3 Natural or environmental challenges to the US electric system

Event type Ability to forecast Projections and considerations Hurricanes/extreme winds Excellent near-term forecasts, long- Most likely will increase because of climate change. term forecasts still uncertain and Distribution systems can be made more robust. generalized Tornadoes Excellent very short term forecasts, Most likely will increase because of climate change. uncertain long-term forecasts Drought Good short-term forecasts, Will increase in the US West and Southwest. Can impact reasonable long-term forecasts generation and transmission capabilities. Effective water management is critical. Winter storms/ice/snow Very good short-term forecasts, Will increase because of climate change. Limits uncertain long-term forecasts generation by impeding fuel access or delivery. Extreme heat/heat waves Very good short-term forecasts, Likely to increase in dry areas with climate change. uncertain long-term forecasts Effective water management is critical. Wildfire Difficult to forecast in both the short Scale will increase in areas of drought. Care must be and long term taken to minimize the likelihood of the electric system initiating wildfires. Flooding/sea level rise Excellent short-term forecasts for Sea level will rise as a result of climate change. Impacts flooding; uncertain long-term on generation and distribution infrastructure. Managed by forecasts for sea level rise accommodation. Earthquake Poor short- and long-term forecasts May increase as a result of local activities such as fracking. Managed by design improvements and increased diversity and/or redundancy of electricity delivery systems. Geomagnetic storms Very good short-term forecasts, No reason for increase. Improvements to mitigate impacts uncertain long-term forecasts are available, but expensive. Wildlife and vegetation Wildlife forecasts are random, No reason for increase other than regions with increased vegetation impacts predictable precipitation. Impacts managed with effective vegetation management programs.

TABLE 4 Human-related challenges to the US electric system

Event type Ability to forecast Projections Physical attack Very difficult to predict No basis for change. System can be modified to be more resistant to physical attacks. Cyberattack Difficult to predict Increased frequency. Owners/operators can take steps to mitigate cyberthreats, but requires constant attention. Electromagnetic sabotage Difficult to predict Potential for increase. Effective mitigation as for geomagnetic storms. Equipment failure Historical experience applies, but Increasing age requires effective management or exacerbated as systems age replacement.

The vulnerabilities of the US electricity system trans- to increase resistance to winds, winter storms, and late into risks to the reliable supply of electricity to the flooding; and system modernization with improved sen- customer. Table 5 shows high and moderate risks for the sors, automated controls, information management, various system components: generation, transmission, and analytic tools (DOE 2017b). Proper preparation substations, and distribution above- and belowground for such events reduces the risks, including effective (Preston et al. 2016). equipment lifecycle management programs, vegetation The risks can be managed with future grid designs management, and warehousing of critical equipment. that maximize flexibility of grid operation. Manage- Increased cybersecurity measures are appropriate to deal ment measures include hardening of the components with increasing cyberattack threats; such measures are The 38 BRIDGE

TABLE 5 High and moderate risk for the various electric system components

Electric system component High risk Moderate risk Generation Large earthquakesa Intense hurricane Extensive drought Extreme heat Moderate wildfires Sea level rise and major floods Strong geomagnetic storms Major equipment failures Transmission High-category hurricanes Low-category hurricanes Major winter storms Minor winter storms Floods (100-year) Major wildfires Large earthquakes Substations Large earthquakes Hurricanes (all) Strong geomagnetic storms Minor winter storms Cyberattacks Extreme heat Floods (100-year) Major wildfires Moderate earthquakes Distribution (aboveground) Hurricanes (all) Floods (100-year) Minor winter storms Major winter storms Major wildfires Earthquakes (all) Cyberattacks Distribution (belowground) Large earthquakes High-category hurricanes Floods (all) Earthquakes (small) Cyberattacks a >7 on the Richter scale discussed thoroughly in Cyber Threat and Vulnerability • The use of “smart” devices in the electric sys- Analysis of the US Electricity Sector (Glenn et al. 2016). tem improves its reliability and resilience, but also increases its vulnerability to cyberattacks. Conclusions

• The reliable and resilient operation of the electric Next Steps system is critical for the health and safety of the public • Full deployment of the smart grid concept for the and the health of the US economy and security. HVTS and the diverse distribution systems across the • The capital stock turnover for the electric system is country must become a top priority. Sufficient funds slow, measured in decades, whereas the technologies need to be allocated at the federal, state, and local needed to strengthen the system advance in months, levels to maintain the reliability and resilience of the creating potential challenges for long-term planning. US electric system in light of increased stresses from the effects of climate change and growing deploy- • The entire electric system is in the “late-in-life” stage, ment of renewable generation and electric vehicles. but still maintains a very high level of reliability. In addition to government support, the ratepayers • Trillions of dollars of investment are required to and stakeholders of US utilities must contribute to rebuild the infrastructure of the US electric system. this transition through cost recovery mechanisms, such as rate increases, appropriate to the type of util- • Climate change poses a significant threat to the reli- ity involved. ability and resilience of the electric system by increasing the frequency and severity of weather-related • The automation of the US electric system is neces- threats. sary, but appropriate care must be exercised to mini- SUMMER 2018 39

mize the potential effects of cyberattacks from all EIA. 2017. Report on electricity generation: table 7.2a, elec- sources. tricity net generation. Washington. Online at https://www. eia.gov/electricity/data.php#gencapacity. • Greater funding and increased focus for the research, EIA. 2018. US electricity flow, 2017. Monthly Energy Review, development, and deployment of practical electric April. Online at https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/ storage devices at the utility scale are required. monthly/pdf/flow/electricity.pdf. FERC [Federal Energy Regulatory Commission]. 2018. Acknowledgment Regional transmission organizations (RTO)/Independent Cameron Fletcher did a fantastic job of editing my system operators (ISO). Washington. Online at https:// article. www.ferc.gov/industries/electric/indus-act/rto.asp. Glenn C, Sterbentz D, Wright A. 2016. Cyber Threat and Vul- References nerability Analysis of the US Electricity Sector. Report INL/ APPA [American Public Power Association]. 2018. 2017– EXT-16-40692. Idaho Falls: Idaho National Laboratory. 2018 Annual Directory and Statistical Report. Arlington McLinn J. 2010. Major power outages in the US, and around VA. the world. IEEE Reliability Society 2009 Annual Technol- Berkeley AR III, Wallace M. 2010. A Framework for Establish- ogy Report 59(3). ing Critical Infrastructure Resilience Goals: Final Report NCSL [National Conference of State Legislatures]. 2017. State and Recommendations by the Council. Washington: Renewable Portfolio Standards and Goals. Washington National Infrastructure Advisory Council. and Denver. Bullis K. 2013. Could electric cars threaten the grid? MIT NEI [Nuclear Energy Institute]. 2018. NEI Calls for New Technology Review, August 16. Jersey Markets to Value Nuclear’s Benefits. Washington. California Energy Commission. 2016. Differences between NERC [North American Electric Reliability Corporation]. publicly and investor-owned utilities. Sacramento. 2017. State of Reliability 2017. Atlanta. Online at www.energy.ca.gov/pou_reporting/background/ NETL [National Energy Technology Laboratory]. 2010. Under- difference_pou_iou.html. standing the Benefits of the Smart Grid (DOE/NETL-2010- Clark-Ginsberg A. 2016. What’s the difference between reli- 1413). Washington: US Department of Energy. ability and resilience? Stanford University. NIST [National Institute of Standards and Technology]. 2014. DOE [US Department of Energy]. 2012. Large Power Trans- Guidelines for Smart Grid Cybersecurity: Volume 1–Smart formers and the US Electric Grid. Washington: DOE Grid Cybersecurity Strategy, Architecture, and High-Level Infrastructure Security and Energy Restoration, Office of Requirements. Gaithersburg MD. Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability. NREL [National Renewable Energy Laboratory]. 2017. Annu- DOE. 2015. United States Electricity Industry Primer (DOE/ al Electric Generator Report (form EIA-860). Washington. OE-017). Washington: DOE Office of Electricity Delivery Preston BL, Backhaus SN, Ewers M, Phillips JA, Silva- and Energy Reliability. Monroy CA, Dagle JE, Tarditi AG, Looney J, King TJ Jr. DOE. 2017a. 2016 Renewable Energy Data Book. Washington: 2016. Resilience of the US Electricity System: A Multi- Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Hazard Perspective. Oak Ridge: US Department of Energy. DOE. 2017b. Ensuring electricity system reliability, security, Rhodes JD. 2017. The outdated US electric grid is going to and resilience. In: Transforming the Nation’s Electricity cost $5 trillion to replace. Business Insider, March 16. Sector: The Second Installment of the QER, chapter IV. Sharma K. 2017. What are the pros and cons of underground Washington. power lines compared to overhead power lines? Quora, DOE. 2018. Electric Disturbance Events (OE-417) Annual August 29. Summary. Washington. US-Canada Power System Outage Task Force. 2004. Final EEI [Edison Electric Institute]. 2017. Distribution. Washington. Report on the August 14, 2003 Blackout in the United Online at www.eei.org/issuesandpolicy/distribution/Pages/ States and Canada: Causes and Recommendations. default.aspx. Washington: US Department of Homeland Security and EIA [US Energy Information Administration]. 2011. Today in Ottawa: Government of Canada. energy (form EIA-860M). Washington. Online at https:// Warwick WM, Hardy TD, Hoffman MG, Homer JS. 2016. Elec- www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=2070. tricity Distribution System Baseline Report (PNNL-25178). Richland WA: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Research, investment, and information sharing are needed to ensure critical upgrades in US container terminal capacity and infrastructure.

Trends in Container Terminal Infrastructure and Technology

Omar A. Jaradat

Container ports are the center of the cargo distribution transportation hub and the most significant contributor to the US economy. Port cargo activity contributes roughly $4.8 trillion to the economy yearly (26 percent of US GDP), over 23 million jobs, and over $320 billion annually in federal, state, and local tax revenues (AAPA 2017a). An ocean carrier’s greatest asset is its ship and a port owner’s greatest Omar Jaradat is technical asset is its infrastructure. These assets use technology because of its ability director, Moffatt & Nichol. to enhance productivity, data analysis, and integration. How these assets are managed and interact is crucial to provide seamless movement of cargo through the supply chain to consumers. Trends and changes in one part of the chain have a cascading effect on the rest of the chain. The ability to understand and forecast these changes helps stabilize and reduce risk in the process. There is a growing gap between infrastructure development and technology. Ongoing growth in ship size requires an integrated approach to infrastructure development and technology to ensure technology advancement, infrastructure resiliency, terminal operations, and sustainability at future container terminals. As port planners, engineers, and scientists look forward, the continued growth in the use of containerized cargo, ever-increasing ship size, and need to modernize container terminals at US ports require a review of the evolu- SUMMER 2018 41

FIGURE 1 Evolution of container terminals since 1965. TEU = twenty-foot equivalent units. Based on data in International Transport Forum (2015). tion of container terminals, current and future trends, infrastructure but also ship requirements at berth. The and needed investments. This article provides insight physical dimensions and features of terminals were sized into future infrastructure development and technology for larger future classes of ships, from 6,000 to 8,000 needs based on these factors and suggests steps to main- twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU).1 Terminal features tain resilient port systems. included larger container yards (of 150–250 acres), larger cranes to handle bigger ships, and dedicated on- Evolution of Container Ships and Terminals dock rail to allow for direct loading to transcontinental The use of modern ports as hubs for transportation, double-stack container trains. shipping, and logistics was transformed in 1956 when In the early 2000s the commissioning and comple- Malcom McLean first lifted entire truck trailers onto tion of new “mega” terminals at the Port of Los Angeles and off ships. Soon after, containers became the stan- (Pier 400) and Port of Long Beach (Pier T) facilitated dard method of shipment worldwide. Today, container- the expansion of US-Asia trade and spurred other US ized ships carry 90 percent of global cargo (Alfred 2012). ports to construct similar facilities. These mega termi- Over the past 20 years, increasing container ship size nals enabled shippers to enhance efficiency and system has been a key market driver. Port planners and engi- reliability through improved wharf and building design, neers cannot predict the upper limit for future ship size faster information technology (with fiber optics), truck based on past trends, it can only be extrapolated. gate process automation, and terminal planning tools. By There are three main triggers for recent signifi- 2010 these terminals, in some cases exceeding 350 acres, cant increases in containerized cargo at US ports: housed even larger cranes, on-dock rail, deeper shipping (1) expanded growth of Pacific trade in the 1990s; channels, and more robust berths to handle the newest (2) optimization of port systems, tools, and technology class of cargo ships, the 9,000–10,000 TEU. in the 2000s; and (3) greater use of terminal automation Conventional wisdom originally held that no ship (spurred by cargo volume). Figure 1 shows the evolu- owner would build vessels larger than what could pass tion of container terminals to accommodate increases through the third set of locks planned for construction in containerized cargo capacity since the 1960s. Throughout the 1990s, increased cargo trade vol- 1 The TEU is an inexact unit of cargo capacity based on the volume with Asia spurred the growth of not only terminal ume of a 20-foot-long container for transport on ships, trains, and trucks. The 42 BRIDGE

FIGURE 2 Container ship size growth, actual and projected, 1968–2040. Modified from Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (2015). through the Panamanian Isthmus. The maximum ship ships could be built and launched by 2060; Bebbington size that can pass through the Panama Canal is 13,000 2017.) TEU, called the Neopanamax. However, to further Malchow (2017) forecasts container ship size to reduce unit cost for each container and to offset higher grow to 30,000 TEU as a practical limit: such a ship, fuel costs, ship builders started to deliver even larger the Malaccamax,2 would require the scaling and opti- vessels, from about 15,000 to more than 20,000 TEU. mization of cranes, berths, channels, container yards, These were mainly deployed between Asia and Europe, gates, and a rail system to handle peak volumes. These but started calling at US ports in 2015. facilities would need to be open 24 hours a day, 365 days Worldwide, increases in cargo volume and the need a year and be fully automated, robotic, and electrified for reliable handling facilities have led to the develop- to provide rapid storage and retrieval, allowing owners ment of a new wave of automated terminals. In the past and logistics providers immediate access to each con- decade such terminals have been or are being imple- tainer. Electric autonomous or semiautonomous ships, mented in Europe, North America, Australia, and trucks, and trains would be needed to accommodate the China; semiautomated terminals are also coming online volume of cargo. Facilities, terminal operating systems, (Ying 2018). utilities, and infrastructure would need to be resilient and redundant to avoid disruptions from natural hazards Forecasts for the Next 20 Years or man-made failures. Since 1968 container-carrying capacity has increased Advances in container shipping technology include by approximately 1,200 percent, and by 2040 ports and the introduction of the “Tesla of canals,” the first all- container terminals will be able to handle the world’s electric, emission-free barge, developed by Dutch man- largest ships, which, by extrapolating ship growth over the last 20 years, could reach 30,000 TEU or more (fig- 2 The name derives from the largest size of ship capable of passing ure 2). (Another prediction theorizes that 50,000 TEU through the 25-meter-deep Strait of Malacca between Sumatra and the Malay Peninsula. SUMMER 2018 43

ufacturer Port Liner. Five of these barges, scheduled to • Plateau of productivity: Adoption takes off; provider be deployed in August 2018, will be fitted with batteries viability is clear; applicability and relevance pay off, (“power boxes”) that provide up to 15 hours of power. as with overnight shipping. The 52-meter-long, 6.7-meter-wide barge does not require engine rooms, has up to 8 percent more cargo space, and can carry 2 dozen 20-foot containers with a total weight of up to 425 tonnes. Port Liner has plans to Terminal planning must produce larger, 100-meter-long barges capable of carry- consider future technology ing 270 containers and powered by four power boxes for 35 hours of autonomous driving (Lambert 2018). and its impacts on The Port Liner innovations illustrate the electrification of this industry, which has been highly dependent infrastructure development on the internal combustion engine. Emerging technolo- and redevelopment. gies are forcing other rapid changes.

Contrasting Development Trajectories Infrastructure Technology Infrastructure developments advance at a linear rate Advanced technology solutions are being integrated and require longer evolution time than technology. The along the supply chain from waterside port operations typical cycle to plan and develop a container terminal is to yard logistics and the distribution chain of truck, rail, 5–10 years, with 25–30 years of use and another 20 years and air transport. Understanding the technology devel- of repurposing for further return on investment (figure 3). opment lifecycle helps to determine what technologies This equates to a potential 30-year gap between a termi- will be useful to the future container terminal. nal construction planning cycle using current technol- Technology generally advances exponentially and ogy and the cycle for container terminal infrastructure follows a recognizable trajectory. The Gartner Hype development and use. During the lifecycle of most exist- Cycle for Emerging Technologies (Panetta 2017) pro- ing container terminals, there has been enormous change vides a graphic representation of this trajectory for in ship size and tremendous advances in technology. To the maturity and adoption of technology innovations. bridge this gap, it is crucial to have careful planning that Depending on the technology type and its application, considers future technology and its impacts on infrastruc- the cycle, which consists of the following stages, can ture development and redevelopment. range from 2 years to 10 years or more. Bridging the Gap • Technology trigger: This stage comprises emerging A more integrated approach to technology, engineer- technology products with unproven commercial ing, and infrastructure development should be included viability, such as artificial general intelligence, smart in rigorous upfront planning and decision making. Cur- robots, volumetric displays, and the smart workspace. rent trends indicate that key characteristics of the future • Peak of inflated expectations: In this category are pro- container terminal may include technology advance- totypes and product success stories, such as virtual ment, infrastructure resiliency, multigeneration termi- assistants, machine learning, autonomous vehicles, nal operations, and sustainability. and blockchain. Technology advancement • Trough of disillusionment: Momentum wanes as experi- • A conveyance system in open seas or near the coast- ments and implementations don’t find consistent sup- line; ultralarge (50,000 TEU) ships may not even port or market acceptance; technology stalls or fails, as dock at a port. with software-defined security and augmented reality. • Wharves designed to accommodate “mega” ships • Slope of enlightenment: Benefits to the industry become (25,000–35,000 TEU). more widely understood and accepted; second- and third-generation products emerge, as with virtual • Large, automated cranes that onload and offload reality products. simultaneously. The 44 BRIDGE

FIGURE 3 Container terminal development cycle.

• Automated or semiautomated electrified tractors, • On-demand cargo pickup using technology like that trains, trucks, and ships. for on-demand car services. • Reuse and repurposing of terminals to minimize the Infrastructure resiliency use of new resources. • Infrastructure designed to survive and operate with all-hazard protection in the event of storms, typhoons, Sustainability floods, tsunamis, fire, and earthquakes. • Green technology throughout the supply chain to • Sensors or other technology to provide advance minimize environmental and community impacts. warning of natural disasters. • Reduced community impacts through holistic, integrated planning of logistics chain with stakeholders. Multigeneration terminal operation • Smart artificial intelligence controls that fully integrate all port operations. SUMMER 2018 45

Challenges and Opportunities for Ports ing market sector clearly worth strategic investments More than 50 years of containerization have resulted in and protection. continuous building of most of the unused and unbuilt Policy goals related to port funding generally con- US port lands. As ships increase in size and trade lanes cern efficiency improvements to increase productivity, become more heavily trafficked, US ports will experi- secure and stable financing, and support for regional ence intense pressure to modernize old facilities or risk and terminal-specific development initiatives. losing market share to competitors. Canadian and Mex- Also at the national level, it is important for research- ican ports, which can service inland US destinations ers, practitioners, and government and agency repre- via rail, are already taking market share from some US sentatives to come together to discuss objectives and ports. Other market forces on ports include consolida- define an approach to consider the strategic research tion among port authorities, operators, and shipping areas shown in table 1. Such a forum could be organized carriers. by leading national agencies and initiated with federal As carriers get larger, ships will need to increase in funding for the collection of data on trends, gap analysis size and landside automation will need to compliment studies, and research on emerging technologies. this increase in order to improve efficiencies. The largest ships are likely to bypass smaller, underfunded port facilities, forcing them to reorient to niche or special- The port industry is one of ized trades to avoid decline. There will be exceptions, as in the airport industry, where medium and smaller 16 critical infrastructure facilities can thrive where they have a cost, geographic, or special value-added proposition. Additionally, ports protection sectors identified are responding to increased safety, environmental, and by the DHS. social requirements. Investments in research are required to more clearly identify challenges and provide solutions to better At the local level, it is important that port experts define the future terminal and supporting infrastructure publish a port-by-port infrastructure and technology needs. Table 1 presents a noncomprehensive list of stra- development plan, reach out to and link port infrastruc- tegic research areas for consideration and prioritization ture and technology experts, create needs assessments, of investments in efficiencies and development initia- and conduct bench and pilot testing of promising tives for container terminals. emerging technologies. Based on past and current trends, the impacts of ship What Is Next? size on infrastructure development and technology can There is a recognized need for additional investments be predicted. A panel of experts in ports, technology, in port infrastructure by the American Society of Civil and funding can help develop a container terminal plan- Engineers, which assigned the US port system a grade ning and investment toolkit, following the process out- of C+ (mediocre, requires attention) in its 2017 Infra- lined in the Port Planning and Investment Toolkit for structure Report Card (ASCE 2017). infrastructure upgrades (AAPA 2017b). This resource In addition to being economically essential to US would include guidance for data collection and plan- competitiveness, the port industry is vital to national ning, assessment of the feasibility of proposed projects, security. In fact, it is one of 16 critical infrastructure financing options, and a spreadsheet tool to evaluate protection sectors identified by the Department of cost benefits of various infrastructure and technology Homeland Security. DHS defines these sectors as those opportunities. “whose assets, systems, and networks (whether physical Acknowledgments or virtual) are considered so vital to the United States that their incapacitation or destruction would have a The author acknowledges the contributions of Doug debilitating effect on security, national economic secu- Theisen and Bart Vermeer for technical content devel- rity, [and/or] national public health or safety.”3 Given opment, Larry Nye for review, Lisa Scola for research, their importance to the US economy, ports are a grow- Veronica Chocholek for line editing, Therese Quesada for copyediting, and Cameron Fletcher for final editing. 3 https://www.dhs.gov/critical-infrastructure-sectors The 46 BRIDGE

TABLE 1 Proposed research and investment areas for future container terminals

Characteristic Potential initiative Technology advancement Equipment, automation, and engineering tools: • New types of container handling equipment in the yard • Retrofitting of existing container handling equipment • Clean or “green” technologies • Automation for inland container terminals and distribution centers • Building information modeling standard for port design engineering • Robotics for inspection and maintenance Pavement systems: • Automation • Repetitive heavy loads • Tracking of container and equipment movement Security and data collection in logistics chain: • Camera or sensor systems to track movement of equipment, containers, trains, and container handling equipment • Security and electronic integration of camera and sensor systems Infrastructure resiliency • Disaster prevention and mitigation • Protection of critical infrastructure, buildings, and lifelines • Risk, resiliency, and continuity of operation plans • Comprehensive national standards for consistency and reduced vulnerability Multigeneration terminal Terminal operating systems: operations • Real-time control activities • Integrated optimization for terminal performance • Applied simulation for cargo movement logistics • Intelligent supply chains with advanced data sharing • Artificial intelligence functionality • Integrated future terminal and cargo systems from shipside to inland distribution Safety: • Safety by design, by automatic process, and for the separation of humans and machines • Remote operation of container handling equipment • Truck safety through advanced technology Information technology: • Resolve big data issues • iCloud data storage • Data sharing through blockchain or other technology • Machine learning Sustainability • Environmentally acceptable integration of the whole transportation system (railroads, ports, highways, distribution networks) • Environmental development to reduce air and water emissions and noise • Compliance with federal, state, and local standards • Energy management (conservation, storage, renewables) • Minimization of environmental challenges in high-risk communities impacted by cargo movement • Electrification of container yard and over-the-road equipment for air quality benefits • Community and social engagement and outreach SUMMER 2018 47

References Bebbington T. 2017. 50,000 TEU … The future or not? AAPA [American Association of Port Authorities]. 2017a. Maritime Executive, November 9. Online at https://www. Aspects of tax reform legislation could harm US economy, maritime-executive.com/editorials/50000-teu-the-future- jobs, ports. News release, December 2. Online at www.aapa- or-not#gs.93xpQc4. ports.org/advocating/PRDetail.aspx?ItemNumber=21887. International Transport Forum. 2015. The Impact of Mega- AAPA. 2017b. Port Planning and Investment Toolkit. Ships: Case-Specific Policy Analysis. Paris: Organisation Washington and Alexandria VA: US Department of Trans- for Economic Cooperation and Development. portation Maritime Administration and AAPA. Lambert F. 2018. Large “Tesla ships” all-electric container Alfred R. 2012. April 26, 1956: The container ship’s maiden barges are launching this autumn. Electrek, January 12. voyage. Wired, April 26. Online at https://electrek.co/2018/01/12/large-tesla-ships- Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty. 2015. Safety and Ship- all-electric-barges/. ping Review 2015. Munich. Malchow U. 2017. Growth in containership sizes to be ASCE [American Society of Civil Engineers]. 2017. 2017 stopped? Maritime Business Review 2(3):199–210. Infrastructure Report Card: Ports. Online at https://www. Panetta K. 2017. Top trends in the Gartner Hype Cycle for infrastructurereportcard.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/ Emerging Technologies. Gartner, August 15. Ports-Final.pdf. Ying W. 2018. Largest automated container terminal begins operation in China. Transport Topics, January 2. Infrastructure modifications could enhance and expedite the development and deployment of AV technology to support the vision of zero road traffic fatalities.

The Role of Infrastructure in an Automated Vehicle Future

Ryan J. Harrington, Carmine Senatore, John M. Scanlon, and Ryan M. Yee

Ryan Harrington Carmine Senatore John Scanlon Ryan Yee

Automated vehicles (AVs) have the potential to revolutionize road transportation. In the United States, approximately 94 percent of all crashes can be attributed to human error (Singh 2015) and the cost of crashes is more than $250 billion annually (Bamonte 2013). Automated vehicles are anticipated to reduce the number of crashes and also improve mobility for underserved segments of the population, reduce commute burdens, and increase road use. As AV development and deployment continue to advance, a parallel and synergistic opportunity to improve roadway infrastructure exists. This article

Ryan Harrington is a principal and Carmine Senatore a senior associate in Exponent’s Vehicle Engineering practice in Natick, MA. John Scanlon is an associate in Exponent’s Vehicle Engineering practice in Philadelphia. Ryan Yee is a senior associate in Exponent’s Vehicle Engineering practice in Menlo Park, CA. SUMMER 2018 49

considers opportunities and challenges associated with gies, such as airbags and seatbelts, which aim to protect the improvement of roadway-related infrastructure to occupants in the event of a crash, active safety systems support automated vehicles. aim to proactively mitigate or eliminate crashes altogether. AV technologies comprise the most advanced Introduction active safety systems. Rather than relying solely on the In 1997 the government of Sweden announced Vision driver, they are designed to assist or take full control of Zero, a national target of zero traffic deaths (Swedish safely operating the vehicle. Ministry of Transport and Communications 1997). Since then, a number of other countries have adopted this goal. In the United States the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), Federal High- Operation of a fully way Administration (FHWA), Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, and National Safety Council automated vehicle will are collaborating to achieve the goal (NHTSA 2016). increasingly emphasize The FHWA, which has oversight of the construction and maintenance of the nation’s highways, bridges, and the roles of the vehicle tunnels, plays an important role in any improvements to this infrastructure, which can help maximize the safety and the environment, benefits of automated vehicles. including the roadway and Accidents can be contextualized in terms of contributions from the human, vehicle, and environment. Prog- other infrastructure. ress toward removing the human from the operation of a fully automated vehicle will increasingly emphasize the roles of the vehicle and the environment, including the roadway and other infrastructure. Infrastructure A vehicle’s level of automation is defined by the level improvements might help address challenging opera- of human monitoring and supervision required and the tional design domains (ODDs) such as driving in the ODD in which the vehicle is capable of operating. The snow at night with little visibility or correctly interpret- available technologies to achieve a certain level of ing differing traffic controls and signage across the 50 automation vary in complexity, and different combina- states. tions of sensors and actuators can be used to achieve While the technology is still maturing, the aging US the same level of automation. In other words, a given infrastructure, which also faces funding uncertainty, is level of automation is not defined by the suite of sensors being pressured by continuously and quickly evolving and actuators installed on a vehicle. The technologies AV technology. Fortunately, although automation is involved are highly proprietary and at times cost sensi- posing challenges, it is also revitalizing the conversation tive, so systems differ across manufacturers and vehicle around infrastructure and its role in the transportation models. ecosystem. The current standard adopted by NHTSA, SAE This article briefly describes the state of AV technol- J3016 (SAE International 2016), defines six levels of ogy, the levels of automation for AVs, and the sensing automation (figure 1), ranging from none (level 0) to suites used to perceive the environment, including the a fully automated vehicle (level 5). The simplest active surrounding infrastructure. It explains how the current safety systems (SAE level 0) rely solely on the driver to infrastructure can be modified to improve AV per- operate the vehicle. Common examples of level 0 auto- formance, and then reviews challenges to continued mation are lane departure warning (LDW) and forward progress. collision warning (FCW) systems that deliver an alert to the driver in the event of an imminent lane departure The State of AV Technology or frontal impact, respectively, but rely on the driver to The last few decades have seen the emergence and take evasive action (General Motors 2018; Mercedes- deployment of active safety systems throughout the Benz USA 2018; Tesla 2018; Volvo Car Corporation automotive industry. Unlike passive safety technolo- 2015). The 50 BRIDGE

FIGURE 1 Levels of automation set forth in SAE J3016 standard (SAE International 2016). Reprinted from NHTSA (2017).

The most advanced technologies on the market are global positioning system (GPS) data, the known SAE level 2, partial automation; SAE level 3 systems, for vehicle state (e.g., speeds, orientation, steering, brake conditional automation, are slated to enter the market application), and 3D mapping data to estimate the later in 2018 (Audi Media Center 2017). An example vehicle’s absolute position. of level 2 automation is adaptive cruise control in con- 3. These steps create a virtual representation of the junction with a lane keeping assist (LKA) system (Audi world, which includes the subject vehicle as well as Media Center 2017; General Motors 2018; Mercedes- all other road users (including bicyclists, pedestrians, Benz USA 2018; Tesla 2018; Volvo Car Corporation and other vulnerable road users), objects, and their 2015); together, they maintain the vehicle’s position on intended path. the roadway and relative to other vehicles. However, to 4. The vehicle determines an appropriate course of ensure the safe operation of the vehicle, the driver must action (e.g., avoiding a collision) while obeying continue to monitor the driving environment. traffic laws. Although several companies are testing highly automated vehicles, consumers cannot currently purchase In the most basic systems (SAE level 0) the vehicle vehicles that are capable of operation without any monitors only a narrow set of variables (e.g., distance driver supervision (SAE levels 4 and 5). from the closest-in-path vehicle) and simply delivers a warning to the driver when certain conditions are met. How AV Systems Work The most advanced technologies actively plan the path The function, hardware, and objective of AV systems of the vehicle and can modify the lateral and longitudi- vary widely across the industry, but the framework for nal dynamics of the vehicle within that space. how they help navigate vehicles is largely consistent: AV technologies rely on information sent from vehicle-based sensors to provide the driver with extra “eyes” 1. The environment is monitored using a combination that continuously scan the area around the vehicle. of sensors (e.g., cameras, radar, ultrasound, and lidar). Cameras, for example, are widely used in AV systems. 2. The vehicle’s onboard computer processes the infor- With machine vision techniques, incoming video mation relayed from the sensors and combines it with data can be processed in real time to identify objects SUMMER 2018 51

(including their location and trajectory) or determine signs, for example, are sized and positioned based on the position of the vehicle in the roadway (Dabral et al. human perception capabilities in relation to speed lim- 2014; Lee 2002; Papageorgiou and Poggio 1999). LKA its and local traffic patterns. and LDW both use cameras to detect lane markings for To align with advances in AV technologies, the determining the lateral position of the vehicle in the infrastructure will likely need to evolve in three ways: roadway. But when the camera is unable to detect lane (1) account for AV sensing capabilities, (2) provide markings—during poor weather conditions (e.g., snow), complementary sensing capabilities, and (3) adapt to inadequate lighting conditions, or on roads without the requirements of transportation modes enabled by lane markings—LKA technologies may be ineffective. AVs. AV technologies are currently being designed to This is a particularly limiting factor given that a third operate with little or no support from the infrastruc- of drift-out-of-lane road departure events occur on roads ture, but the burden of perception and path planning without lane markings (Scanlon et al. 2016a). will be increasingly shared and integrated with the Radar, lidar, and ultrasonic sensors are also involved infrastructure. in AV technologies to determine the location of roadway obstacles and other roadway users (Hatipoglu et al. 2003; Pakett 1994; Schubert et al. 2010; Tesla 2018). Technologies can equip They are capable of varying detection ranges, field of view, and resolution, but all require line of sight and are AVs with sensing range and therefore of limited effectiveness in detecting oncoming vehicles in certain driving scenarios. accuracy beyond human As an example, a vehicle making a left turn at a sig- drivers’ capabilities. nalized intersection may encounter sightline restric- tions due to vehicles in the opposite lanes (Scanlon et al. 2017). And when vehicles approach from lateral Some argue that AVs should be capable of navigat- directions at intersections, line of sight may be impaired ing using the same infrastructure that human drivers by roadside objects such as signs or foliage, or by road- use today. But technologies can equip AVs with sensing way geometry such as curves or hill crests (Scanlon et range and accuracy beyond human drivers’ capabilities. al. 2016b). For instance, humans drive with limited exchanges of GPS data are used to determine vehicle position in information with other human drivers, but vehicle- the roadway, but accuracy limitations and degraded to-vehicle communication can facilitate AV naviga- signal near buildings or other obstructions compromise tion and planning by sharing information, even in the the reliability of these data (DOD 2008). Automated absence of line of sight. Deeper integration of vehicles vehicles will use data fusion techniques to incorpo- and infrastructure will increase AV sensitivity to infra- rate GPS data with other sensing equipment, such as structure conditions and inconsistencies, while at the cameras or inertial measurement units, to improve reli- same time granting additional layers of robustness, mak- ability (Caron et al. 2006; Chang et al. 2010; El Faouzi ing AVs arguably safer. et al. 2011; Milanés et al. 2008). Automated vehicles are expected to eventually close Technological Enhancements for Infrastructure the gap with humans in terms of adaptability and resil- Certain physical infrastructure elements such as lane ience to unstructured environments and to be capable markings, signage, and signals can be designed to facili- of operating, initially, in selected “geofenced” environ- tate AV perception and interpretation. Infrastructure ments and under prescribed ODDs.1 can also act as a distributed sensor network, supporting data sharing and providing information to vehicles. The Role of Infrastructure And technologies such as variable speed limits, traffic Current infrastructure is designed and built to accom- detection at signalized intersections, and traffic signal modate human abilities and information needs. Road coordination are already moving the infrastructure in this direction. 1 The 2019 Audi A8 “Traffic Jam Pilot,” for instance, allows It is expected that this digital infrastructure will drivers to travel hands-free up to 35 mph on a limited-access become the cyberphysical backbone for AVs: using an divided highway. The 52 BRIDGE

FIGURE 2 The infrastructure of the future will be able to seamlessly exchange data with vehicles and other road users. Source: Getty Images.

Internet of Things approach, it will be capable of sens- Finally, with the introduction of AVs, the infrastruc- ing the environment and sharing useful information ture will have to accommodate new driving behaviors with vehicles (figure 2). For instance, precipitation and traffic patterns. A prime example is parking. In sensors may alert AVs to potentially hazardous driving London, an estimated 8,000 hectares of land are occu- conditions, and smart traffic cones may be capable of pied by parked cars. However, in a driving landscape repositioning themselves safely on the road while com- dominated by AVs it may not be necessary to find a municating to nearby vehicles about their placement parking spot close to the drop-off location since vehicles and the reason for their presence. will be able to drive away to park (if necessary) where A constant exchange of information between vehi- space allows, thus operating similarly to a taxicab. As cles and the infrastructure will facilitate the updat- an additional benefit, AVs will enable better use of land ing of digital maps in real time. Many AVs now rely allocated for parking by parking closer to each other. heavily on such maps to ascertain precise location and safely navigate the environment. With the environ- Challenges ment continuously changing—because of road work, As AV technology is continuously progressing, infra- local road closures, weather, and other factors—access structure changes will have to accommodate new and to updated maps in real time has direct repercussions unforeseen technologies. The increased interaction on AV performance. The constant exchange of infor- between technologically sophisticated vehicles and mation between infrastructure and AVs can facilitate infrastructure will require closer collaboration between the identification of nonconformities and road haz- the automotive, technology development, and infra- ards, establishing a virtuous cycle of data sharing that structure communities as well as road owners and oper- benefits the safety and mobility of both drivers and the ators, transportation planners, and federal, state, and public at large. local agencies. Although updating the infrastructure SUMMER 2018 53

can be daunting and expensive, its benefits will likely evolves, some constraints may be relaxed, but even if a extend beyond AVs to human drivers as well. new technology is more robust to infrastructure incon- The difference in the deployment time horizons for sistencies, full market penetration will be gradual and sensor and vehicle technologies, often measured in could take decades. Therefore the needs and limitations years, and for infrastructure, measured in decades, will of the current AV fleet must be considered well into the create planning, design, and funding challenges. Cur- future. rent infrastructure decisions will impact and define AV operation for decades to come, so communication and coordination among the automotive, technology Will AVs increase development, and infrastructure communities will be essential: or reduce road use? • The infrastructure community will benefit from a How will they affect better understanding of current and future AV technology needs, which will allow the implementation traffic flow and volume?. of infrastructure enhancements that can support the safe and efficient operation of AVs into the future. The infrastructure community also needs to assess the • The automotive and technology development com- impact of AVs on road capacity and land use. Will AVs munities should consider and design within the increase or reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and context of infrastructure planning, funding, and thus road use? How will AVs affect traffic flow and vol- maintenance. ume? How will land use change as the need for surface and garage parking evolves? These are only a handful of • Technology developers should plan for the availabil- questions that need to be addressed in anticipation of the ity and deployment of future infrastructure. release and widespread adoption of AVs. • The infrastructure community needs to stay abreast Finally, infrastructure for automotive transportation of vehicle and sensor technology development to is under pressure from increasing vehicle electrification. understand how infrastructure may impede or accel- AVs are not necessarily electric, but electrification in the erate the adoption of sensor technologies and AVs. automotive field is gaining traction and the infrastructure must account for this regardless of AV penetration. • As data sharing between vehicles and infrastructure Electrification can offer synergies with certain aspects of expands, securing and leveraging these data commu- AVs—for instance, by streamlining data sharing—and nications will require coordination among the three will play an increasingly important role in infrastructure. communities. In the short term, the most relevant infrastructure Conclusion features for AV safety, efficiency, and performance In a fast-paced technological landscape, it is challeng- should be identified and evaluated in the context of the ing to identify the needs of the next 50 years. And at a level of automation. For instance, well-maintained lane time of uncertainty in infrastructure funding, it may be markings are critical for LKA technologies. Harmoniza- even more difficult to plan and implement infrastruc- tion of lane markings, signage, and traffic signals across ture for AV technologies that are still in development. all states is equally important.2 In remote areas with low traffic volume, for example, it The type and periodicity of maintenance and repairs may be cost prohibitive to install adequate infrastruc- (e.g., road markings and pavement quality) need also to ture to fulfill current AV needs. On the other hand, be considered for the effective implementation of AV future AVs are expected to be more robust and resil- technology. As an example, careful attention should be ient to infrastructure deficiencies and may be capable of paid to the conditions of road signs to ensure maximum navigating those remote areas even without particular visibility in all seasons and weather. As technology infrastructure support. Given the current trajectory of AV technology, infra- 2 The Manual of Uniform Traffic Control Devices (FHWA 2012) structure modifications could enhance and expedite the defines standards and recommendations for state and local development and deployment of these systems to sup- authorities. The 54 BRIDGE port the vision of zero road traffic fatalities. Achieving DOD [US Department of Defense]. 2008. Global Positioning this vision will require collaboration between the auto- System Standard Positioning Service Performance Stan- motive, technology development, and infrastructure dard, 4th ed. Washington. communities as well as federal, state, and local agencies. El Faouzi N-E, Leung H, Kurian A. 2011. Data fusion in intel- It is vital to plan for and implement infrastructure solu- ligent transportation systems: Progress and challenges—A tions that are agnostic to specific technologies, benefit survey. Information Fusion 12(1):4–10. both AVs and human drivers, and prioritize short- and FHWA [Federal Highway Administration]. 2012. Manual of medium-term needs while keeping a long-term view. Uniform Traffic Control Devices. Washington. Areas for immediate action include traffic con- General Motors. 2018. Super Cruise. Online at www.cadillac. trol harmonization, continuous engagement between com/world-of-cadillac/innovation/super-cruise. parties, and pilot demonstration projects. Uniform Hatipoglu C, Özgüner Ü, Redmill K. 2003. Automated lane signage and road marking across jurisdictions can change controller design. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent be achieved through the updating and implementa- Transportation Systems 4(1):13–22. tion of the Manual of Uniform Traffic Control Devices. Lee JW. 2002. A machine vision system for lane-departure Infrastructure planners and engineers should maintain detection. Computer Vision and Image Understanding constant communication with AV developers to make 86(1):52–78. sure they have their finger on the pulse of the industry Mercedes-Benz USA. 2018. S-Class Operators Manual, and understand AV needs. This process will necessarily P-6515-2164-13.pdf. Stuttgart. evolve through pilot demonstration projects that can Milanés V, Naranjo JE, González C, Alonso J, de Pedro T. inform the interaction between infrastructure and AVs 2008. 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Audi vision of autonomous driving. Ingolstadt, Germany. SAE International. 2016. Taxonomy and definitions for terms Bamonte TJ. 2013. Autonomous vehicles: Drivers of change. related to driving automation systems for on-road motor Transportation Management & Engineering, July 24. vehicles, J3016_201609. Warrendale PA. Online at https:// Online at https://www.trafficandtransit.com/autonomous- www.sae.org/standards/content/j3016_201609/. vehicles-drivers-change. Scanlon JM, Kusano KD, Gabler HC. 2016a. Lane departure Caron F, Duflos E, Pomorski D, Vanheeghe P. 2006. GPS/IMU warning and prevention systems in the US vehicle fleet: data fusion using multisensor Kalman filtering: Introduction Influence of roadway characteristics on potential safety of contextual aspects. Information Fusion 7(2):221–230. benefits. Transportation Research Record 2559:17–23. Chang BR, Tsai HF, Young C-P. 2010. Intelligent data fusion Scanlon JM, Page K, Sherony R, Gabler HC. 2016b. 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testing. That was fantastic. Then my first job out of col- Sylvia Acevedo, CEO, lege was working at the Jet Propulsion Labs as a rocket scientist. I joined at an opportune time, right when the Girl Scouts of the USA Voyager II was doing a flyby of Jupiter and its moons, so I got to analyze reams and reams and reams of data. In addition to that, I worked on the Parker Solar Probe Missions, where I did some complex algorithm analysis of the payloads of test equipment versus how it would impact with gravity, with radiation, with all sorts of things. Then I worked in Silicon Valley as a facilities engineer. That was really fantastic. I got to do a state-of- the-art building for IBM, a 765,000 square foot plenum clean room. I still remember that, and I can probably tell you where every outlet was. It became the showcase for IBM in terms of manufacturing. Besides high-end disc storage there, IBM was trying to sell more of its computers for the fast-growing technology industry, so it needed people who were comfortable with the technology and with engineers, and able to talk to engineers— who are now the decision makers in Silicon Valley. I was selected to join their marketing and sales team, using my technology background. Then I saw how other people, especially men, were being groomed and I realized that there weren’t people Sylvia Acevedo grooming me. So I went out of my way to figure out what were the skills I needed to move up in my career. I had sales experience, and I knew I needed product RON LATANISION (RML): We are very happy to marketing and P&L experience, so I began developing talk with you today, Sylvia. I think you are an inspira- my career in the technology field along that line. I then tion to a lot of people and especially to young women created opportunities to develop as an executive and given the work you do on their behalf with the Girl worked at a variety of companies, like Apple, Autodesk, Scouts. I’d like to begin with some of your background. and then I was recruited to work at Dell to launch its I understand you have a BS in industrial engineering server business. That was a very exciting opportunity. from New Mexico State and a master’s in systems engi- After that I got the startup bug, partly due to my neering from Stanford. And you practiced as an engi- Girl Scouts cookie program skills of entrepreneurship. neer. Is that correct? I got my opportunity to start, with three other people, a startup called REBA Technology, which we ended up SYLVIA ACEVEDO: Yes, I even had my PE license selling and having a successful exit. Because of the suc- for a while. cessful exit I had some time and opportunity to think RML: That’s wonderful! Tell us a little about what about what’s next. you’ve done in terms of your engineering experiences. I could have jumped right back into technology, but I saw the demographic shift and that I had the skills and MS. ACEVEDO: I was really fortunate to have had a capability of understanding the analytics, so I became work-study program through college at Sandia Labs, so involved in education, creating mobilization campaigns I got hands-on experience in the field in human factor SUMMER 2018 57

that got families much more involved. And tying the reports so the information was available—especially the impact of improved educational attainment to work- demographics—to funders. force development. We also got a policy changed. Before our work, if you The educational impact of this was noticed and I was were running a Head Start or other early childhood pro- selected to be on the Presidential Initiative for Hispanic gram, you could not use federal funds to teach children Educational Excellence; I was chair of the Early Child- in their native language. You immediately had to put hood Committee. them in English immersion, and couldn’t bridge to a To scale the impact, I decided to take some time to child’s native language using the child’s native skills. write what I knew, and I wrote a curriculum of fam- If you think about the global market, where being ily engagement, mostly directed at English language bilingual is a competitive advantage, we were taking learners or those who are new to the US educational off the table one of the competitive advantages of our system, from pre-K to 12th grade, through Houghton nation’s workforce being bilingual. So we were able to Mifflin Harcourt. get that policy changed. Everything I did was with a systems approach. I had the analytical capability but I also had the systems thinking. I’m always thinking, How does this scale? Educators are really great one-on-one and one-on-a-few—which is Everything I do is with the best way to learn, frankly; they are doing what they are supposed to do—but sometimes with demographic a systems approach. changes the scale overwhelms them. I professionally trained in scale and analytics, so I I’m always thinking, was able to create solutions that scaled. For example, a How does this scale? quarter of a million books were successfully distributed across the country. I think we did the largest single-day book giveaway in California’s history—60,000 books. CAMERON FLETCHER (CHF): Are you still on That’s the size of a bookstore. Most people were over- that commission? whelmed by that number, but as a systems person and a process person, I knew how to break it down so that we MS. ACEVEDO: No, and I wouldn’t have time for it could easily deliver those books in one day. Every time now, being CEO of the Girl Scouts. somebody came in we handed them a bookbag with the RML: Do you know if that commission is still active? appropriate age-level book. I took the same approach with vision, and with dental. MS. ACEVEDO: As in other areas with this admin- I found out that 20 percent of the kids in a Title I school istration, I don’t think they’ve quite filled all the posi- didn’t have glasses even though they needed them, and tions yet. that this need was overwhelming the capabilities of RML: I asked because I was speaking recently with the local nonprofits. If you can’t see you can’t learn. I someone about the current absence of a presidential sci- created a consortium and created another way of doing ence advisor. In fact, a lot of the science advisory capac- that and in just a couple of years, 11,000 kids got glasses ity in the Trump administration is basically inactive. So that normally wouldn’t have had them. I’m curious about this commission because, obviously RML: You mentioned being part of a presidential initia- when you’re talking about education and young people, tive. When was that? During the Obama years? that’s a very important role. MS. ACEVEDO: Yes. I was chair of the Early Child- CHF: Sylvia, you mentioned that you appreciated that hood Subcommittee. I was a Head Start baby and I you had benefited from Head Start and other programs, knew how important Head Start was for me. Taking a and what struck me earlier was when you said that in the systemic approach, we realized that, while we had a lot corporate world you realized you were not getting the of great organizations and people focused on making kind of professional grooming that your male colleagues a difference, we needed to make sure there were data got. Are you doing anything to help young professional and analytics. We put data and analytics in research women with mentoring or that kind of grooming, sort The 58 BRIDGE of paying it forward in the ways that you’ve done in As a Girl Scout I realized, here I am in the corpo- other areas? rate environment where I see the informal and formal networking and mentoring they are doing for my male MS. ACEVEDO: That’s a great question. In the Girl colleagues. No one’s doing it for me, so I figured out for Scouts we have an acronym “GIRL”: Go-getter, Innova- myself what I needed to do to advance my career. tor, Risk taker, Leader. The reason I immediately sought Recently I was in Silicon Valley talking with some of out how I could move ahead in my career is that Girl the top female tech leaders. They mentioned that Girl Scouts taught me how to create opportunity and to Scouting helped them realize that it’s okay to have a problem solve. mentor, it’s okay to ask for support and guidance. If you As an engineer I know the importance of a scalable grow up with that in Girl Scouts, it becomes embed- business model. How can you scale something if you ded in how you think about things. A lot of times girls don’t have a model? In Girl Scouts our “business model” grow up thinking, ‘If I ask a question that means I don’t is to take girl potential, develop skills, and provide lead- know something.’ Instead, Girl Scouts realize, ‘I can ask ership experience. You learn something and have to do something and I can be a go-getter and go after that.’ something with it—you have to take action, you have to problem solve. There also has to be a caring adult RML: There seems to be a great deal of interest among who is a troop leader and is interested in developing the women today in running for elected office, and Time girls’ potential. magazine just had an extensive article on women who Here is a real-world example. When I first started were considering running for elected office. Do you hap- working at Sandia Labs they didn’t have a bathroom pen to know any of these women and whether they were available for me. Instead of being angry, I immediately Girl Scouts? went into problem-solving mode. I thought, ‘When did MS. ACEVEDO: Let me give you the numbers. I love I have another instance like that?’ And I remembered in these numbers! Girl Scouts are 8 percent of this coun- Girl Scouts when we were going on an all-day hike and try’s girl population but we represent more than half my troop leader asked us, “What do we need?” We said, of all female elected officials. Almost 80 percent of all “a hat,” “comfortable shoes.” She kept saying, “What women US senators were Girl Scouts. I think all but else do you need?” Finally, she said, “How are you going one female elected governor, historic and current, were to go to the bathroom on an all-day hike?” As a kid, Girl Scouts. As were all three female secretaries of state. you’re thinking, ‘I don’t know.’ So we had to problem solve. RML: As the grandfather of four girls I’m delighted to hear this. Do you have any contact in your current life with any of those folks? Almost 80 percent of all MS. ACEVEDO: Yes, we reach out to the senators and representatives. But to look at your question in a slightly women US senators were different way, I didn’t initially realize the impact of Girl Girl Scouts, as were all three Scouts in my own life. About 10 or 12 years ago I got a phone call from female secretaries of state. Stanford. Somebody was working in the archives department and doing a study and said, “I want to talk to you because frankly you’re one of the first Hispanics, At Sandia I said to myself, ‘Okay, how am I going male or female, to have gotten your graduate engineer- to problem-solve this?’ I identified where the closest ing degree from Stanford and you are still one of the women’s bathrooms were and realized that if I had an few. We want to find out why you knew about Stanford, emergency I’d have to bring a bike. So I did. In 6 weeks because Stanford wasn’t actively recruiting in southern they finally bought me my own Porta-Potty that said New Mexico at the time, so how is it that you had the ‘Hers.’ right training, the right skills, the right aptitude to be As an engineer, I wanted to get ahead and I noticed prepared to excel at Stanford. Did you have wealthy my managers didn’t always help me. In typical Girl parents? Did you have college professors as parents?” I Scout fashion I didn’t start blaming or complaining. I said, “No. We lived paycheck to paycheck.” They kept went immediately into problem solving. SUMMER 2018 59

asking me, “Well, why was it that you took advanced friends were doing—earning their cooking badge—she calculus? And chemistry physics?” At the time girls like encouraged me to also earn my science badge. I demurred me weren’t even graduating from high school much less but she said, “I remember you looking at the stars. Why going on to college much less becoming an engineer. don’t you do something with space?” So I made an Estes That was when I made the connection with Girl rocket. It took several tries to make it. I learned you Scouts. I was out on a camping trip, and after we fin- have to get the chemicals right, you have to get the heat ished eating our s’mores I stayed looking at the beautiful source right. And when you get all of that right you can night sky—we were in Las Cruces, New Mexico. My have success just like in cooking. By doing that, I realized troop leader saw me and sat next to me and pointed out I liked science and I was good at it. the constellations, the different stars, and the planets. That prompted me to continue to take math and sci- My parents had seen me looking at the stars but they ence. So when the opportunity presented itself, I said, had never pointed out the Big Dipper or Little Dipper. I “I’m going to be an engineer.” Even though my college learned that there are systems up in the night sky. counselor didn’t encourage me I still went ahead and did The troop leader remembered that and later, when we that. And I’m so grateful that that historical archivist were earning our badges and I wanted to do what all my called me because at that point I realized, ‘Oh my gosh,

Sylvia Acevedo with Brownies and Girl Scouts in Central Park. The 60 BRIDGE if I look at my cousins, if I look at my friends, I’m the Target and bought a whole bunch of toothbrushes. Every only one that has taken this path and that was thanks to week I brought another one with me. After 6 weeks, she Girl Scouts and thanks to my troop leader pointing out remembered her toothbrush. I said, “I’m so proud of you, the stars and me having that hands-on science activity.’ you remembered your toothbrush.” And she said, “No, Then I became very active in volunteering and being on now everybody in my family has a toothbrush.” the board and now I’m the CEO. At the time I was working in technology so I went to talk to the teacher and sort of indignantly said, “Did CHF: This started from looking at the stars—you could you know that child had horrible dental hygiene?” She have gone into astronomy or a science and yet you chose looked at me and said, “Sylvia, do you have $35?” I said, engineering. What led you in that direction? “Huh?” She said, “Well, one of the kids just broke his MS. ACEVEDO: That’s easy. I remember back in the eyeglasses and his family can’t afford to fix them, so can day, pre-Google, you could get college books about dif- you give me $35 to fix the glasses?” I did, but then I ferent careers, and I realized I liked people but I also had an epiphany: The school and teachers were over- liked systems and processes. Business didn’t strike me run with tens of thousands of kids that needed glasses, as particularly interesting, and neither did theoretical toothbrushes, books. I’m really good as a systems think- fields, for the sake of theory, like physics and chemistry. er and this is a systems challenge. It doesn’t overwhelm But wow, having a blend of both people and process, me—it’s actually fun for me, it’s a problem to solve. that really interested me. And that’s why I decided to In Girl Scouts what I’m really excited about is that study industrial and then systems engineering. there are millions of girls who are underserved and underrepresented in rural areas, across every single zip RML: So you’ve had academic experience, experience code in America, and they would benefit from Girl in the corporate world, and experience in terms of social Scouts. For me what’s exciting is the scale of the chal- engineering and social issues, I suppose is a way of char- lenge of reaching more girls in a contemporary way. acterizing it. I know you’ve been a lifelong Girl Scout but what was the decision point that led you to become RML: What’s the relationship between the Boy Scouts the CEO of the Girl Scouts? of America and the Girl Scouts of the USA? I understand that recently the Boy Scouts announced that girls MS. ACEVEDO: There were two. One was from the could become Cub Scouts and I think eventually they Stanford interview, helping me understand how pivotal will have the opportunity to earn Boy Scout badges and Girl Scouts was in my life. The other was from thinking even the rank of Eagle Scout. Was there a conversation how I could contribute at scale to make a difference. with the Girl Scouts in the evolution of that concept or policy on behalf of the Boy Scouts? For me what’s exciting is MS. ACEVEDO: We were incredibly disappointed that they decided to become coed. We are a girl-only, the scale of the challenge girl-focused organization and we continue to be. Our number one focus is girl safety and providing excep of reaching more girls in a tional programs for girls. That’s what we’re all about. contemporary way. RML: I’m sort of surprised that there was no conversation between the organizations. Is that correct? A neighbor had asked me to volunteer reading at MS. ACEVEDO: They called to tell us they were a local Title I school. I was helping a young girl and going to do something. We disagreed vehemently but noticed she had terrible dental hygiene, so I began they went ahead. We’re amazingly disappointed that bringing in a toothbrush and some goldfish crackers they did it. (even though we weren’t supposed to). We’d eat the RML: Is there something equivalent to an Eagle Scout goldfish crackers and then I’d say, “Okay, let’s go brush in terms of the Girl Scout ranks and badges? our teeth.” I told her to keep her toothbrush and next week we would do the same thing. Well, the next week MS. ACEVEDO: We have three levels: Bronze, Silver, came and she didn’t have the toothbrush, so I went to and Gold Award Girl Scouts. Gold Award is the premier SUMMER 2018 61

and probably one of the most challenging youth-serving But, given biases about men and nurses, they paid men awards that a youth can earn. You have to have sustain- more to be the surgical nurses running the Da Vinci. able impact in your community that lasts beyond you. That was about a decade ago. Now think about the The Gold Award Girl Scout is amazing. internet of things: almost every device we’re going to interact with is going to have embedded technology. RML: I have to say, Sylvia, I’m thinking back to the And it’s so important that women be there at the table comment about women who have announced their with the right kinds of skills to ask questions, maybe intention to run for elected office. I think I’m speaking do the coding, the design, the marketing, the legal, to one who should consider that. Have you given that and other product functions. For certain businesses— any thought? marketing, legal, software—the questions are vital. MS. ACEVEDO: I always laugh when people say, “Hey, Sylvia, you should run, you should be a politician.” No, I am 100 percent engaged in what we’re doing in Girl Scouts. We want to give girls the RML: Well, I asked not only because you have insights skills to design, to create that I think are on a national scale but also because their world, to be inventors, I’m very concerned about the direction of the country. I think, frankly, having more women in Congress and designers, and entrepreneurs other elected offices and in responsible positions in our government is and will be a good thing. in any field. MS. ACEVEDO: I agree with you. Civics has been taken out of schools in some states and there are now We want to make sure that our Girl Scouts have generations of parents who haven’t been taught a for- that training, so that is an area we’re really scaling up. mal process about civics. We’re reenergizing our civic We now have 23 new STEM badges, 6 space badges, engagement with badges in this area all the way from badges for robotics, civic engagement, and 18 new Daisies (kindergarten and 1st grade) to 12th grade. cybersecurity badges. And that’s just the beginning! No And our results speak for themselves—half of all female matter what field you’re in, technology is going to be elected officials are Girl Scouts. So civic engagement is embedded in it and we want girls to be not just the users a really important part of what we do. but the designers and creators. We’re also giving Girl Scouts the skills and the tools RML: What do the cybersecurity badges involve? to be creators of their environment. We want to give girls the skills to design, to create their world, to be MS. ACEVEDO: When we were creating and test inventors, designers, and entrepreneurs in any field. piloting our 23 STEM and outdoor badges, we asked The internet of things is going to change everything. the girls, “What else do you want?” They said, “We I’ll give you an example. want to protect our lives digitally.” That’s cybersecurity. A surgical device called the Da Vinci helps surgeons We looked for a partner and actually have two—Palo operate, but the company that developed the technol- Alto Networks and Raytheon—in developing these 18 ogy hired video gamers to develop the software. Then cybersecurity badges. the company spent a lot of time to make sure doctors For the younger ages, such as the Daisies and Brown- accepted it, but they didn’t have the same consideration ies, it’s really about learning safe protocols. How do you about the nurses in the operating room—and they are establish your online presence? By the time girls are in absolutely vital. The average operating room nurse is (or middle school, it’s about internet browsers, traffic, web at least used to be) 42 years old. She was not comfort- crawlers, so they can manage who is putting code on able with video game technology. All of a sudden a new their computer and how they can prevent that. And device is brought into the operating room. The doctor for seniors and senior ambassadors, they’re going to be got trained; she didn’t, and the device isn’t natural or doing some pretty high-end hacking and coding. native to her. So hospitals decided to reach out to men, RML: I think about what the internet was intended to who are very familiar with the video game technology. be, which was basically a platform that allowed everyone The 62 BRIDGE everywhere on the planet to communicate and to have Golden Gate Bridge—11,000 girls walked over that access to information. That was the intention. Now we bridge. Afterward, at Crissy Field, they had all sorts of see what it has morphed into in terms of hacking and fun hands-on activities, everything from robotics to even antisocial behavior. One of our other interviewees crafts to dancing to singing. And there was a big circle in this series, a writer named Henry Petroski, recently and the girls threw their mobile devices there and for referred to social media as “antisocial media,” and in 6 hours they engaged in life, engaged with each other, many respects it is. When you think about the damage and played. I loved that! I thought it was a good exam- that can be done to young people, particularly by some ple of Girl Scouting. They may have used their mobile of their counterparts who, for whatever reasons, want device to get there but then they were there engaged in to be malicious, it can be a very dangerous thing. And activities, having fun with friends. the amount of time that kids spend with keyboards is CHF: How wonderful! I want to go back, Sylvia, to staggering to me. your mention that you were involved in a startup. What So I wonder, how do you instruct young women to was the nature of that startup? And also, while we’re on manage their personal lives in the face of things like that subject, was that what got you to be identified on Facebook that can be friendly or very harmful? the website as an award-winning entrepreneur? MS. ACEVEDO: We train our volunteers and our girls MS. ACEVEDO: The company, REBA Technology, about bullying, both in the real world and especially had software to manage client-side IP server traffic. through social media. We help them find important With all this traffic coming into servers, how do you tools to control the dialogue online. prioritize and manage it? We had software that did that But also an important part of Girl Scouts is being and the company was purchased. outdoors and unplugging. So even with a tremendous After that I got into doing more work in the educa- amount of effort around STEM, there will always be a tion field and started a company, CommuniCard, and component that is unplugged. earned many awards for the impact we made there. That’s also what got me on the White House Presiden- tial Commission. We want girls not only to RML: You obviously speak frequently to groups about know how to program, Girl Scout activities, is that correct? MS. ACEVEDO: I love talking about Girl Scouts but also to unplug and because I know the big difference it made in my life. develop interpersonal skills RML: I can see why the word “inspirational” is an apt and a love of the outdoors. characterization of what you do. You have boundless energy and the things that you’re doing and have done are truly inspirational. We want girls to be able to think without boundaries. MS. ACEVEDO: Thank you. When you’re looking at a digital device, somebody has predescribed your environment and what you’re going RML: Where do you see the Girl Scouts heading in the to see. We want girls not only to know how to program, next decade? What is your vision for the future of the to create digital solutions, but also to turn it off and Girl Scouts? develop interpersonal skills and a love of the outdoors. MS. ACEVEDO: We’re really excited about the path I think that’s one of the great things about our cookie we have for girls. We’re staying with our pillars: the program: it teaches you how to talk to people, how to set outdoors, STEM, life skills, and entrepreneurship. But goals, how to deliver good customer service, how to ask we’re going to reach even more girls from underserved for the order. So there’s a balance of stepping away from and underrepresented areas. Continual lifelong learn- the computer and being in the real moment. ing is important, so there will be more types of badges One of my favorite memories is of a bridging ceremo- in relevant areas. And I think we’ll make the strong ny. We have bridging ceremonies all over the country, case of our economic impact on the workforce. So many and I was invited to the one in San Francisco at the SUMMER 2018 63

women CEOs were Girl Scouts! Just name a top female leader and she was a Girl Scout. We haven’t been as articulate as we need to be about that. There’s also the connection with our alumnae. I call the Girl Scouts “the forgotten leader” in women’s leadership. Like me, I forgot the connection. So we’re going to put a lot of effort into helping people remember the connection. I was just speaking with a professor at Columbia University. She said, “Sylvia, I was a Girl Scout, but I don’t know what you’re talking about—I don’t remember the connection.” She went home and, to her credit, she called me and said, “Sylvia, Sylvia Acevedo addresses the 2017 Girl Scouts National Convention, “G.I.R.L. 2017.” I have to apologize. I started a stock photo digital photography business and I was able to sell it profitably. I went home I offer these as evidence that the Girl Scouts will and found my Girl Scout sash and what did I see but two remain strong as a girls-only program. camera badges and also top cookie seller!” MS. ACEVEDO: Thank you, I appreciate that. Just like me, she had forgotten that connection and had to be reminded. We want to remind others of that RML: Sylvia, we typically ask the folks we interview if connection. there is any message they would like to convey to Bridge readers, who include not only the NAE members but CHF: So you’re going to build up Girl Scouts alumnae also members of Congress and people at engineering activities? schools and many other interested subscribers—about MS. ACEVEDO: You bet, we absolutely are. And use 7,000 in all. What message would you like to give our social media to do it. readers? CHF: That may also help to counter your concern MS. ACEVEDO: Girls in the United States are an about the fact that the Boy Scouts are now admitting amazingly untapped resource for America and right now girls. On that subject, I want to mention that I went America needs all of its best talent to compete in the to Bryn Mawr and we had coed classes, coed dorms, global economy. Girl Scouts is poised to develop girls: coed activities with Haverford College, which is about to encourage confidence and character and make the a mile down the road from Bryn Mawr. The last year I world better and with the right kinds of skills to succeed was there, Haverford decided to admit women. Well, of in the 21st century. course, there was a hue and cry among us Mawrters— RML: That’s a wonderful message. I think highlight- but it turns out not to have made any difference in the ing the impact that women have had on the legislative numbers of women applying to study at Bryn Mawr, process, in terms of elected officials, and in other areas which remains an all-women’s school. is something that most Americans are unaware of but The other thing is that with all of the stories about would be delighted to know. I think that’s something abuses by men in power, there may be a particular that your banners ought to fly because it’s very, very attractiveness to an activity that is a haven for young important. women in the Girl Scouts. The 64 BRIDGE

MS. ACEVEDO: The only other thing I would ask is if CHF: You’re falling at 120 miles an hour. you could put in a plug for readers who were Girl Scouts MS. ACEVEDO: Yes, and when we dived I really did to put it on their LinkedIn profile. feel like I was in a James Bond movie. Then we released CHF: Before we close, Sylvia, I just want to ask, it looks the smaller parachute so that it could be a little easier like you went skydiving? going down—that was fun because then you could see things—and then we put out the bigger chute. It was a MS. ACEVEDO: Right, I did. I went with the Golden great experience. Knights. The Army was a partner in our grassroots campaigns and it had such an impact on helping the mili- CHF: Wasn’t it wonderful! Once the big chute opens tary that as a thank you they allowed me to go skydiving the descent is actually very tranquil and serene. with the Golden Knights. MS. ACEVEDO: Yes, it really is. It is quite quiet. CHF: What did you think? CHF: I don’t have any other questions. Thank you so MS. ACEVEDO: Oh my gosh! I went with a guy who much, Sylvia. had 6,000 jumps so, although initially I was scared, once RML: Yes, thank you very much. I am so delighted to I met him I realized I could not be in safer hands. We have had this conversation and to know that the Girl did some pretty amazing things. We did the James Bond Scouts of the USA are in such good hands. thing and did a dive bomb because we didn’t release the smaller chute right away. I think we jumped from MS. ACEVEDO: And thank you very much for 3 miles and released the big parachute at 2 miles. When your time. I appreciate everything you’re doing at the you jump out of a plane— academy. SUMMER 2018 65

NAE News and Notes NAE Newsmakers

Rod C. Alferness, Richard A. Frances H. Arnold, Linus ship in SME and for his outstand- Auhll Professor and dean, Univer- Pauling Professor of Chemical Engi- ing contributions to the science sity of California, Santa Barbara, neering, Bioengineering, and Bio- and technology of rock mechanics, and retired chief scientist, Alcatel- chemistry, California Institute of which is fundamentally integral to Lucent, has won the 2018 Frederic Technology, has been elected to the SME’s multiple disciplines.” Ives Medal/Jarus W. Quinn Prize American Philosophical Society On February 26 the Mining and from the Optical Society (OSA). He along with 34 other new members. Metallurgical Society of America was chosen for “basic contributions The APS, the oldest learned society awarded the 2018 MMSA Gold and leadership in the development in the United States, was founded Medal to Thomas V. Falkie, retired of integrated optics, high-speed in 1743 by Benjamin Franklin for chair, Berwind Natural Resources optical modulation and switching, the purpose of “promoting useful Corporation, at its annual dinner and configurable WDM networks knowledge.” in Minneapolis. Dr. Falkie received that have provided significant eco- Paul Bevilaqua, retired manager, the medal “in recognition of a life- nomic and societal impact.” The Advanced Development Programs, time of contributions to the mining award, the highest OSA gives, will Skunk Works, Lockheed Martin industry through education, indus- be presented at the 2018 FiO+LS Aeronautics Company, received try management, and government meeting in Washington, DC, in the Guggenheim Medal at the 2018 service.” September. OSA has also honored AIAA Aerospace Spotlight Awards Eric R. Fossum, John H. Krehbiel Dieter Bimberg, executive direc- Gala on May 2 in Washington, DC. Sr. Professor for Emerging Technolo- tor, Technical University of Berlin, He was recognized “For the con- gies, director of the PhD Innovation with the 2018 Nick Holonyak ception and demonstration of the Program, and associate provost in Jr. Award, given for contributions multicycle propulsion system and the Office of Entrepreneurship and to optics based on semiconductor- other technologies enabling the Technology Transfer at Dartmouth based devices and optical materials, production of the F-35 supersonic College, is the 2018 recipient of the including basic science and tech- V/STOL Strike Fighters.” Yale Science & Engineering Award nological applications. Dr. Bimberg Thomas P. Bostick, retired chief for Advancement of Basic and is honored “for fundamental dis of engineers and commanding Applied Science. He was cited for coveries on growth and physics of general, US Army Corps of Engi- having “transformed the way that semiconductor nanostructures lead- neers, and Edward Kavazanjian Jr., billions of people see and record ing to novel nanophotonic devices Regents Professor and Ira A. Fulton their daily lives, and his work has for information science and com- Professor of Geotechnical Engineer- revolutionized optical sensor array munications.” During the OSA Bio- ing, Arizona State University, are technology and made whole fields Medical Congress held April 2–6 in in the 2018 class of ASCE Dis- of research possible.” Hollywood, Florida, Lihong Wang, tinguished Members. They will be Brown University bestowed Bren Professor, California Institute honored at ceremonies this Octo- a 2018 Research Achievement of Technology, received the OSA ber at the ASCE Convention in Award on Huajian Gao, Walter H. 2018 Michael S. Feld Biophoton- Denver. Annenberg Professor of Engineer- ics Award for inventing the world’s Charles Fairhurst, senior con- ing. The award is given in recog- fastest two-dimensional receive- sulting engineer, Itasca Consulting nition of outstanding scholarship. only camera and enabling real-time Group Inc., and professor emeritus, Professor Gao was chosen for lasting imaging of the fastest phenomena University of Minnesota, was rec- contributions in his primary field, such as light propagation and fluo- ognized with a SME Presidential the mechanics of solids and struc- rescence decay. Citation for “his longtime member- tures, such as in the mechanics of The 66 BRIDGE thin films and nanostructured and Y.H. Liu–TSI Applied Technology was awarded the 2018 Arthur L. energy storage materials. Chair in Mechanical Engineering. Schawlow Prize in Laser Science Graeme J. Jameson, Laureate The naming recognizes Dr. Liu, a by the American Physical Soci- Professor and director, University university alumnus, as an award- ety. The prize recognizes outstand- of Newcastle, Australia, has been winning researcher and entrepre- ing contributions to basic research elected to the Royal Society of neur who has dedicated his career using lasers to advance knowledge London. to aerosols and particles research. of the fundamental physical proper- Dean Kamen, president, DEKA The American Institute for ties of materials and their interac- Research and Development Corpo- Medical and Biological Engineer- tion with light. Professor Mourou ration, received the National Sci- ing (AIMBE) has inducted Asad is cited for “fundamental contribu- ence Board’s 2018 Public Service M. Madni, retired president, chief tions in ultrafast, ultrahigh-field Award, which honors exemplary operating officer, and CTO, BEI laser inventions, such as chirped public service in promoting public Technologies Inc., and independent pulse amplification, that led to the understanding of science and engi- consultant, into the AIMBE College new discipline of relativistic optics.” neering. Mr. Kamen was recognized of Fellows. Members comprise the Elaine S. Oran, Glenn L. Martin for his extraordinary body of work top 2 percent of medical and biolog- Institute Professor, University of that has benefitted people around ical engineers. Membership, among Maryland, College Park, has been the world. The award was presented the highest professional distinctions elected a member of the American May 2 during the National Sci- accorded, honors those who have Academy of Arts and Sciences. ence Foundation’s Annual Awards made outstanding contributions to Dr. Oran pioneered computational Ceremony in Washington. “engineering and medicine research, technology for the solution of F. Thomson Leighton, CEO and practice, or education” and to “the complex reactive flow problems, cofounder of Akamai Technologies pioneering of new and developing unifying concepts from science, Inc., is the recipient of the 2018 fields of technology, making major mathematics, engineering, and Marconi Prize, awarded annually to advancements in traditional fields computer science in a new method- individuals who have made a signif- of medicine and biological engineer- ology. The class of 213 members will icant contribution to the advance- ing, or developing/implementing be inducted at a ceremony in Octo- ment of communications for the innovative approaches to bio ber in Cambridge, Massachusetts. benefit of humankind through sci- engineering education.” The induc- Bruce E. Rittmann, Regents’ Pro- entific or technological discoveries. tion ceremony took place April 9 fessor of Environmental Engineer- Recipients are designated Marconi during the AIMBE annual meeting ing and director, Biodesign Swette Fellows and are expected to pursue at the National Academy of Sci- Center for Environmental Biotech- further creative work that will add ences in Washington. nology, Arizona State University, to the understanding and develop- James A. Miller, STA Senior and Mark C.M. van Loosdrecht, ment of communications technol- Scientist, Argonne National Labo- professor, Department of Biotech- ogy. Dr. Leighton is honored for ratory, and Charles K. Westbrook, nology, Delft University of Technol- his fundamental contributions to retired senior scientist, Lawrence ogy, have won the 2018 Stockholm the technology and establishment Livermore National Laboratory, Water Prize. This global award is of content delivery networks. The are members of the inaugural class given annually by the Stockholm award will be presented October 2 at of fellows of the international International Water Institute to pro- the Marconi Society’s annual awards Combustion Institute (CI). Rec- mote excellent water achievements dinner in Bologna. ognized by their peers for outstand- and inspire future water-wise action. Benjamin Y.H. Liu, retired ing contributions to combustion in Drs. Rittmann and van Loosdrecht CEO and president, MSP Cor- research or applications, they will be were recognized for “pioneering and poration, has been honored by inducted during the 37th Interna- leading the development of envi- TSI Incorporated: at the Univer- tional Symposium on Combustion ronmental biotechnology-based sity of Minnesota, the chair of the in Dublin, July 29–August 3. processes for water and wastewater Mechanical Engineering Depart- Gérard A. Mourou, direc- treatment. They have revolution- ment will be named the Benjamin tor, École Polytechnique, France, ized treatment of water for safe SUMMER 2018 67

drinking, and refined purification of Texas at Austin, has been named by the ACM Council on Women of polluted water for release or the University of Virginia’s 2018 in Computing to celebrate women reuse—all while minimizing the Distinguished Alumna. She was researchers who have made funda- energy footprint.” Crown Princess selected for her outstanding leader- mental contributions to computer Victoria of Sweden will present the ship in the work to diversify engi- science. Dr. Goldsmith was chosen prize on behalf of King Carl XVI neering, a crucial part of which is for her contributions to the theory Gustaf at a royal award ceremony encouraging women to enter and and practice of adaptive wireless on August 29 during World Water remain in the field. communications, and for the suc- Week in Stockholm. Wm. A. Wulf, AT&T Professor cessful transfer of research to com- William D. Strecker, retired of Computer Science and University mercial technology. Dina Katabi, executive vice president & CTO, Professor Emeritus, University of professor, electrical engineering and In-Q-Tel Inc., was honored by Virginia, was selected for the ACM computer science, Massachusetts Carnegie Mellon University with Policy Award for broad contribu- Institute of Technology, received a 2018 Alumni Achievement tions bringing computing into the the 2017 ACM Prize in Computing Award. The award is given for national agenda and leading com- for creative contributions to wire- exceptional accomplishment and puter scientists into public policy, less systems. The prize recognizes leadership in the field or voca- where his inspirational leadership early to midcareer contributions tion of the alumnus. Dr. Strecker promoted key national priorities that have fundamental impact and received the award May 18 during including diversity and ethics. He broad implications. Professor Katabi commencement weekend. will be formally honored at the is recognized as one of the most The Western Society of Engi- ACM awards banquet June 23 in innovative researchers in the field neers celebrated Engineers Week by San Francisco. of networking; among her contri- honoring Ivan E. Sutherland, visit At the ACI Concrete Convention butions, she invented a device that ing scientist, Department of Elec- and Exposition this spring, James seems to be lifted out of the pages of trical and Computer Engineering, R. Harris, president, J.R. Harris & science fiction—she and her team Portland State University, as the Company, was made an Honorary pioneered the use of wireless signals 96th recipient of the Washington Member “for visionary leadership in the environment to sense humans Award at a celebratory dinner on in the development of codes and behind walls, determine their move- February 23 in Rosemont, Illinois. standards for the design of safe and ments, and even surmise their emo- The award is conferred on an engi- reliable buildings and for dedicated tional states. John L. Hennessy , neer whose professional accomplish- service to the structural engineer- director, Knight-Hennessy Scholar ments have advanced the welfare of ing profession.” David W. Fowler, ship Program, and former president, humankind. Dr. Sutherland earned Distinguished Teaching Professor Stanford University, and David the nickname “father of computer Emeritus and Joe J. King Chair in A. Patterson , Pardee Professor of graphics” for his 1963 MIT PhD Engineering No. 2 Emeritus, Uni- Computer Science Emeritus, Uni- program, Sketchpad, an interactive versity of Texas at Austin, was versity of California, Berkeley, computer-graphics program. awarded the Arthur R. Anderson are recipients of the 2017 A.M. John A. White Jr., Distinguished Medal “for contributions in research Turing Award. The award, often Professor of Industrial Engineer- and education regarding the effec- referred to as the “Nobel Prize of ing and chancellor emeritus at the tive use of materials to improve the Computing,” carries a $1 million University of Arkansas, was hon- durability and service life of new and prize, with financial support pro- ored with a Distinguished Alumni existing concrete structures.” vided by Google Inc. Drs. Hennessy Award from the College of Engi- The Association for Computing and Patterson were awarded for pioneering Education at Ohio State Machinery (ACM) has honored four neering a systematic, quantitative University. He was recognized for NAE members. Andrea Goldsmith, approach to the design and evalua- his contributions to the advance- Stephen Harris Professor of Engi- tion of computer architectures with ment of engineering education. neering, Stanford University, is enduring impact on the micropro- Sharon L. Wood, dean, Cockrell the 2018–2019 Athena Lecturer. cessor industry, enabling the design School of Engineering, University This award was initiated in 2006 of faster, lower-power, and reduced The 68 BRIDGE instruction set computer (RISC) received the Albert Nelson books, mentoring, and leadership.” microprocessors. Their approach Marquis Lifetime Achievement The Society also selected Bjarne led to lasting and repeatable prin- Award, from Marquis Who’s Who, Stroustrup, managing director, ciples that generations of architects presented for “demonstrated leader technology, Morgan Stanley Group have used for many projects in aca- ship, excellence, and longevity in Inc., to receive its 2018 Computer demia and industry. Awards will be their respective industries and pro- Pioneer Award. Dr. Stroustrup was presented at ACM’s annual awards fessions.” The honored members chosen for “bringing object-oriented banquet June 23 in San Francisco. are Edith M. Flanigen, indepen- programming and generic program- The American Institute of Aero- dent consultant and retired fellow, ming to the mainstream with his nautics and Astronautics recognized UOP LLC; Theodore V. Galambos , design and implementation of the two NAE members during the Joint emeritus professor, University of C++ programming language.” Conference of the AIAA Interna- Minnesota, Minneapolis; Robert Two NAE members were hon- tional Communications Satellite G. Gallager, professor emeritus, ored by the National Academy of Systems Conference and the Ka Massachusetts Institute of Tech- Sciences during the NAS’ 155th and Broadband Communications nology; and John H. Perepezko, annual meeting in April. James Conference, October 16–19, 2017, IBM-BASCOM Professor of Mate- P. Allison, chair, Department of in Trieste. The members recognized rials Science and Engineering, Uni- Immunology; director, Immunol- were C. D. Mote, Jr., NAE presi- versity of Wisconsin–Madison. ogy Platform; and deputy director, dent, for his Durand Lecture for The IEEE Computer Society has University of Texas MD Anderson Public Service titled “NAE’s Grand named Daniel P. Siewiorek, Buhl Cancer Center, received the 2018 Challenges for Engineering and the University Professor of Computer Jessie Stevenson Kovalenko Scholars Program,” and Kevin A. Science and Electrical and Com- Medal for important medical dis- Wise, senior technical fellow, Boe- puter Engineering, Carnegie Mellon coveries related to the body’s ing Company, who received the University, the recipient of the immune response to tumors. Dean Intelligent Systems Award for “his 2018 Taylor L. Booth Education Roemmich, professor of oceanogra- long history of developing intel- Award. He is being recognized for phy, Scripps Institution of Ocean- ligent autonomy and integrating “contributions to computer archi- ography, received the Alexander intelligent systems into production tecture, wearable computing, and Agassiz Medal for his leadership in aerospace systems.” human computer interaction edu- understanding the ocean’s roles in Four NAE members recently cation through his pioneering text- climate variability and change.

NAE Chair, Vice President, and Councillors Elected

This spring the NAE reelected at Illinois Institute of Technology, of Computer Science & Engineering its chair, vice president, and one was reelected to a three-year term at the University of Washington. incumbent councillor, and elected as councillor. Newly elected to On June 30, 2018, Anita K. three new councillors. All terms three-year terms as councillors were Jones, University Professor Emerita begin July 1, 2018. Nadine Aubry, dean of engineering of the School of Engineering and Reelected to a two-year term as and University Distinguished Pro- Applied Science at the University chair was Gordon R. England, chair fessor at Northeastern University; of Virginia, and Richard H. Truly, of PFP Cybersecurity; and reelected Wesley L. Harris , Charles Stark retired vice admiral of the US Navy to a four-year term as vice presi- Draper Professor of Aeronautics and and retired director of the National dent was Corale L. Brierley, prin- Astronautics at Massachusetts Insti- Renewable Energy Laboratory, will cipal of Brierley Consultancy LLC. tute of Technology; and Edward D. complete six continuous years of John L. Anderson, Distinguished Lazowska, Bill & Melinda Gates service as councillors, the maxi- Professor of Chemical Engineering Chair of the Paul G. Allen School mum allowed under the Academy’s SUMMER 2018 69

Gordon R. England Corale L. Brierley John L. Anderson Nadine Aubry Wesley L. Harris

Edward D. Lazowska Wanda M. Austin Anita K. Jones Richard H. Truly bylaws; and Wanda M. Austin, poration, will complete four years vice and other contributions to the retired president and chief execu- as councillor. They were recognized NAE. tive officer of the Aerospace Cor- in May for their distinguished ser-

NAE Honors 2018 Draper Prize Winner

Each year the NAE celebrates Charles Stark Draper Prize for C++, based on C and originally outstanding individuals for sig- Engineering inspired by Simula, provides gen- nificant innovation, leadership, Bjarne Stroustrup was awarded the eral and flexible abstraction mecha- and advances in engineering. The 2018 Charles Stark Draper Prize for nisms that can be mapped directly winner of the 2018 Charles Stark Engineering “for conceptualizing and and efficiently onto computer hard- Draper Prize for Engineering was developing the C++ programming ware. It revolutionized the software honored at a black-tie dinner language.” industry by enabling a variety of on February 20 at the National Dr. Stroustrup is the designer and software development techniques, Academy of Sciences Building in original implementer of C++, one of including object-oriented program- Washington. The recipient, Bjarne the most widely used and influential ming, generic programming, and Stroustrup, accepted his award programming languages in the his- general resource management, to before an audience of more than 90 tory of computing. After its official be deployed at industrial scale. C++ guests, with NAE president C. D. release in 1985, he guided its evolu- remains among the most widely Mote, Jr. at the podium. Assisting tion through his research, involve- used programming languages, in the presentation was Dr. Kaigham ment in the C++ ISO standards with applications in general sys- (Ken) M. Gabriel, president and effort, books, and many academic tems programming, communica- CEO of Draper Laboratory. and popular papers. tions, computer graphics, games, The 70 BRIDGE

Those guys made the world we live in! I am truly honored to join this extraordinary group. Receiving a high honor like the Draper makes you reflect. I want to say “thank you” to all who helped me get here and who made me what I am. To do that, I have to tell my story. I come from a solid working-class background. My father and all of my uncles left school after 7th grade to work with their hands. So, toward the end of high school when I had to choose, I had no clue what to do next, and no one to ask. History? Architecture? Sociology? Engineer- ing? Get a job like everybody else? Ken M. Gabriel, Bjarne Stroustrup, and C. D. Mote, Jr. I felt a strong need to build something concrete like my father and uncles did. user interfaces, embedded systems, His honors include ACM’s Grace Engineering appealed to me: financial systems, medical systems, Murray Hopper Award (1993), elec- Engineers build things! I decided to avionics, scientific computation, tion to the NAE (2004), Sigma Xi’s go to the Technical University in and many other areas. Its influence William Procter Prize for Scien- Copenhagen; that’s the best place for and the ideas it pioneered and popu- tific Achievement (2005), Aarhus engineering in Denmark. But then I larized are clearly visible far beyond University’s Rigmor og Carl Holst- got cold feet! Copenhagen seemed the C++ community. Knudsens Videnskabspris (2010), a big scary city, and I’d have to pay Dr. Stroustrup began his career and the Faraday Medal from the for my living, so I’d have to take at AT&T Bell Labs’ Computer Institute of Engineering Technol- out significant loans. In Denmark Science Research Center in Mur- ogy (2017). He is a fellow of IEEE, education is free, of course, but you ray Hill, New Jersey, where he ACM, and the Computer History have to live. And what if I failed? designed and implemented C++. Museum, and an honorary fellow of There were no resources in my fam- He was head of AT&T’s Large-scale Churchill College, Cambridge. ily to back me up. So I bicycled up Programming Research Depart- Bjarne Stroustrup was born in to the University of Aarhus, my ment from its inception in 1996 Aarhus, Denmark, in 1950. He hometown university, and signed up until 2002. After that, he taught received a master’s degree in math- for “Mathematics with Datalogy.” I and did research at Texas A&M ematics and computer science from thought I was signing up for some University, reaching the rank of Aarhus University in 1975 and form of applied math. Fortunately, University Distinguished Professor. a PhD in computer science from I was wrong! I wasn’t as good at Since 2014 he has been a managing Cambridge University in 1979. math as I had thought I was, and director in the technology division “datalogy” is Danish for “computer of Morgan Stanley in New York Acceptance Remarks by science.” After my first encounter City and a visiting professor at Bjarne Stroustrup with programming and machine Columbia University. His research When I heard that I was to receive architecture, I never looked back. interests include design, program- the Draper Prize, I naturally looked That was great! ming techniques, distributed sys- up who had received it over the years Aarhus gave me a solid grounding tems, performance, reliability, and and almost panicked. That’s intimi- in math and computer science; I go maintainability. dating and extraordinary company! back there as often as I can. It’s a SUMMER 2018 71

beautiful city! Denmark is a society friends in Aarhus and Cambridge, that supports you when you follow and at Texas A&M, Morgan your dreams. It’s one of the nicest Stanley, Princeton, and Columbia. places on earth. They made me what I am today and From there, I went to Cambridge. contributed to my work in so many It’s a magical place, it can inspire ways. I am very happy to see some of you. You look at the accomplish- you here tonight. ments of the people who came Also, a heartfelt “thank you” to before you and think ‘Oh! I have the Draper family and Draper Labs, to do better, much better, or I don’t who made this event possible, and belong here!’ Also, it can give you to the great National Academy of the confidence to do something Engineering. And again, thank you that really matters. My daughter to my family, who in so many ways was born in Cambridge and I’m still made it all possible and worthwhile. associated with the university as a I was designing, implementing, fellow of Churchill College. and evolving C++, but I always saw Bell Labs in New Jersey was it as a tool for building interesting Bjarne Stroustrup another one of those magical places. things. The amazing applications Like Cambridge, it could inspire of C++ are what keep me going! people and raise their ambition Whatever field you are interested in, We must educate the community level to build great things. My col- software can get you there! “Distrib- about what engineers do and why leagues there were scarily smart and uted systems” was my PhD topic and it matters. Engineering is not just accomplished. Many were also true is still much of what I do for Morgan applied science and not just tin- gentlemen and patient teachers. Stanley today. After all, everybody kering with gadgets. We innovate, I spent 24 years working at “the has to get information from A to B, but we also build things to be use- Labs.” That’s where I designed and whether across a tiny chip or half- ful, dependable, and affordable. We implemented C++. My children way around the world or beyond! I need to attract students and inspire grew up near the Labs. have always been interested in reli- them to work hard. The challenges Much of the credit for C++’s suc- ability, speed, maintainability, and of the future are daunting! We must cess goes to the C++ community. affordability. show the young that they can have Nobody can do something like that It is somewhat ironic that my a good life, with good friends and a just on their own. More than 4 mil- determination to build “something good work-life balance, while work- lion strong today, this community concrete” led me to spend 40 years ing hard to build a better world. provides me with inspiration and a working on something you can’t We need to foster professionalism. constant need to innovate. To help touch and that’s completely invisible. We must show that there can be support and grow the community, You can’t just build things, more to life than ruthlessly chasing I have spent more than 25 years though. For a tool to become useful, money, climbing a career ladder, or working on the C++ standards com- you must explain its proper use. For becoming a politician. We have to mittee, improving C++ as a stable, an invention to become pervasive, inspire people to do great things! To practical tool. its principles must be articulated do better than they imagined they They say that you are what and popularized. A favorite Danish could! To make a difference! Our you eat. But really, you are who you author of mine, who came from civilization depends critically on eat with, learn with, work with, and farming stock, wrote “He who does good engineers and good engineer- have fun with. So thanks to the not plough must write.” So along ing! And, of course, good software. many people I met through my work the way, out of necessity, I became Again, thank you, all of you! and to my teachers, colleagues, and an author and a teacher. Thank you! The 72 BRIDGE

NAE-NAM Regional Meeting on Technobiology at the University of Miami

The University of Miami hosted a The benefits of an engineering- and pasteurization, was actually a regional meeting on “Engineering medicine partnership in academia very successful technobiologist. Less and Medicine: A Critical Partner- were underscored by several intro- well known is that Pasteur saved ship in Technobiology” on Febru- ductory comments, including those the French wine industry when ary 26. Organized by NAE members of NAE president C. D. Mote, Jr., he discovered two types of potas- Daniel Berg and James Tien, the NAM home secretary Jane E. sium tartrate that are mirror images symposium was cosponsored by the Henney, UM executive vice presi- with different optical activity. This National Academy of Medicine dent and provost Jeffrey L. Duerk, breakthrough underscored the value (NAM). UM executive vice president for of knowledge discovery that accom- “Technobiology” is a recently health affairs Edward Abraham, and panies societal problem solving, coined term for the application of UM dean of engineering Jean-Pierre which is often referred to as Pasteur’s engineering or technology to biology Bardet. Dr. Henney said she was quadrant and which all three of the or medicine. (The term “biotech- especially pleased to see students meeting’s speakers acknowledged in nology” concerns the application in attendance at the symposium, their presentations. of biology to technology, including, describing them as “our future in Engineer, entrepreneur, and serial for example, neural networks, which terms of discoveries yet to come that inventor Leonard Pinchuk, presi- characterize how neurons network will truly change our world.” dent and CEO of the medical device and function to help model com- During the 4-hour conference, company Innovia LLC and an alum- plex relationships between inputs attendees learned about several nus and Distinguished Research and outputs of a large dataset.) technobiology breakthroughs from Professor of UM’s College of Engi- “The US healthcare system needs a stellar group of three engineers neering, detailed how his company to become more efficient and more whom Dr. Berg, Distinguished developed both the first commer- effective,” said Dr. Tien, dean emer- Research Professor at UM, lauded cially successful angioplasty balloon itus of UM’s College of Engineer- for creating fundamental knowledge and the helical wire-based stent ing, in welcoming more than 175 in areas of societal need. used on most stent grafts. His team students, faculty, and visitors to the Dr. Berg reminded the audi- also developed the first implant- symposium. “Just as engineering has ence that Louis Pasteur, the famous able elastomer, a polymer known made the manufacturing of goods French biologist, microbiologist, as SIBS (styrene isoprene butylene and the delivery of services more and chemist, renowned for his dis- styrene), and in collaboration with productive, it must now focus its coveries of the principles of vac- scientists at the UM Miller School talents on health care.” cination, microbial fermentation, of Medicine’s Bascom Palmer Eye

Panelists at the Joint National Academies of Engineering and Medicine Regional Symposium on “Engineering and Medicine: A Critical Partnership in Technobiology,” February 26, 2018, University of Miami. Pictured left to right: Dr. Daniel Berg, NAE; Dr. Ashutosh Agarwal; Dr. Matthew Tirrell, NAE; Dr. Leonard Pinchuk, NAE; Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., NAE; Dr. Julio Frenk, NAM; Dr. Jane Henney, NAM; Dr. Jeffrey Duerk; Dr. Edward Abraham; Dr. Jean-Pierre Bardet; Dr. James Tien, NAE. SUMMER 2018 73

Institute, integrated that technol- such as the heart and pancreas institutional structures at univer- ogy into ophthalmology with a on a chip about the size of a USB sities to support their “incredibly device that bypasses obstructions in stick, allowing his team to conduct talented researchers.” Institutions the eye’s drainage pathways to treat risk-free biomedical testing. These of higher learning, he said, should glaucoma. efforts are both informing the clini- not only create knowledge but also Matthew Tirrell, the founding cal trials that transplant human transfer that knowledge to technol- Pritzker Director of the University islets in Type 1 diabetic patients ogy and maintain an open interface of Chicago Institute of Molecular and enabling tools for precision with those who can take creation to Engineering, discussed his work in oncology. the next step. versatile modular nanoparticles that Following the three presenta- The partnership of medicine and patrol for diseases without telltale tions, UM president Julio Frenk engineering isn’t new, pointed out symptoms. He described the insti- (NAM), a physician who served as NAE president Mote. “But suddenly tute’s organization and its focus on Mexico’s minister of health under it’s turned a corner where now engi- Pasteur’s quadrant. former President Vicente Fox, made neering and medicine realize that Ashutosh Agarwal, an assistant a few remarks and then coordinated their futures independently depend professor of biomedical engineer- a discussion by the three presenters, on their partnership together,” he ing at UM, presented his organ- interspersed with insightful ques- said. “From this point on, you can on-a-chip research, which involves tions from the audience. President expect to see this around the coun- simulating the function of organs Frenk called for the creation of try and around the world.”

UCSD Regional Meeting: How Interdisciplinary Collaboration and Data Science Are Making the Invisible Visible

Members of the National Academy NAE, UK Royal Academy of Engi- lion microbial species on the planet. of Engineering gathered at UC San neering, and Chinese Academy His goal is to expand knowledge of Diego in La Jolla on March 28 for of Engineering, was the third in a where they live and how they dif- a regional meeting and symposium. series that aims to inspire the next fer between individuals and conti- Participants engaged with university generation of engineers to address nents. He also seeks to understand faculty on transformative research some of the most pressing issues of the role of factors such as sleep, on the microbiome, genetics and the time. age, diet, and exercise as well as the computing, and the role of inter- The first technical theme was a possibilities of modifying microbial disciplinary collaboration and data two-part presentation on the micro- communities to improve human and science in advancing their studies. biome and the effects of microbes environmental health. Albert Pisano, dean of the Jacobs on human health and climate. Rob Kimberly Prather, Distinguished School of Engineering, welcomed Knight, director of the Center for Chair in Atmospheric Chemistry attendees and briefly described Microbiome Innovation and profes- at Scripps Institution of Oceanogra- the global reach of the engineer- sor of both Pediatrics and Computer phy and the Department of Chem- ing program at UC San Diego. He Science and Engineering, described istry and Biochemistry at UC San then introduced NAE president his research on the microbial com- Diego and director of the Center for C. D. Mote, Jr., who thanked the munities in the human body and Aerosol Impacts on Chemistry of university for hosting the event and their impacts on health and dis- the Environment, spoke next. Her congratulated a group of UCSD ease. He noted that there are more study of extreme weather events students on their Student Day Busi- microbes on Earth than there are and precipitation redistribution ness Model win at the 2017 Global stars in the universe, and with the led her to explore the impacts of Grand Challenges Summit. The help of data science he has begun to pollution and microbes on climate summit, jointly organized by the catalogue the approximately 1 tril- change. The 74 BRIDGE

Dr. Prather explained how results in the almost complete increasing significance for decisions microbes affected by pollution can transmission of a genetic trait across of daily life. He lauded the precision be ejected into the atmosphere as generations. This gene modification afforded by data science, especially sea spray to circulate around the technique could eradicate malaria as the massive influx of data can globe. She is working to under- through immunization of wild yield important new insights. stand how different aerosols mix mosquitoes. Dr. Gupta cautioned, however, with pollution to better understand Rajesh K. Gupta, professor and that, while more data and more their association with climate. UC holder of the Qualcomm Endowed math may make one feel more con- San Diego was recently awarded Chair in Embedded Microsystems, fident, data are not without bias. As $2.8 million from the National Department of Computer Science the prevalence of data science grows, Science Foundation to construct a and Engineering, led the final dis- he made the case for the develop- replica of an ocean-atmosphere sys- cussion about the significance of ment of coding practices to correct tem that will mimic the ocean with data science and interdisciplinary against inherent biases, inequalities, unprecedented accuracy and help collaboration in transformative and stereotypes in the data. further Prather’s work. advances, as seen in the work of At the conclusion of the indi- The third speaker, Ethan Bier, Drs. Bier, Prather, and Knight. As vidual talks, Dean Pisano returned holder of the Tata Chancellor’s the recently appointed codirector of to the stage to invite the panel for a Endowed Professorship in Cell and UCSD’s new Halıcıog˘lu Data Sci- group discussion and questions from Developmental Biology, discussed ence Institute, he noted that the field the audience. Guests and speakers the possibilities of active genetics, is quickly becoming the backbone of then continued their conversations a method of genome editing that many other disciplines and has an at a reception.

NAE Regional Meeting Hosted by Schlumberger

Oilfield services company The first speaker, Ashok Belani, decades to come. He then went on Schlumberger hosted an NAE executive vice president for tech- to discuss the basic principles of regional meeting in Houston on nology of Schlumberger Limited, geology and geochemistry behind April 4. The theme of the meet- showed how the company’s use of the geographical distribution of oil ing was Geoscience on Earth and data has, since the 1950s, closely and gas reservoirs, and explained Beyond. Houston is the epicenter tracked that of the broader digital why the exploitation of shale gas of two major geoscience enterprises: world. Today the oil and gas indus- and tight oil require horizontal the exploration and production try generates hundreds of terabytes drilling and massive hydraulic frac- of fossil fuels, and the explora- of data annually, but they are under turing of the subsurface. tion of space. The symposium fea- used. Schlumberger’s vision is to Philip Singer of Rice Univer- tured seven talks on topics ranging effectively use data to make hydro- sity showed that nanometer-scale from the depths of an oil well to carbon exploration and production studies are crucial for understand- the surface of Mars. The event also safer and more efficient. ing the complex behavior of hydro included an NAE business meeting Robert Kleinberg, recently carbons in rock. He reviewed recent before the symposium, chaired by retired from Schlumberger, intro- research activities in this domain NAE executive officer Al Romig, duced the petroleum geology of that integrate nuclear magnetic and a dinner at the end of the day. shale gas after dispatching a pre- resonance measurements with Corale Brierley, NAE Vice Pres- liminary question: Why are we molecular dynamics simulations ident, and Home Secretary Julia still talking about fossil fuels? The and molecular density functional Phillips opened with a review of the answer: Even assuming rapid growth theory. The research aims to yield history, mission, composition, and of renewable sources of energy, oil insights into the effects of nanopore structure of the National Academy and gas consumption are expected confinement on hydrocarbons in of Engineering. to remain roughly constant for organic-rich shale. SUMMER 2018 75

Geoff Downton of Schlumberger land water storage of 60 to 70 cubic Doug Ming, also of the NASA described the technology deployed kilometers per year from 2002 to Johnson Space Center, discussed underground to guide, monitor, and 2014. This result contrasts with the potential for Mars environ- control the construction of an oil or global models, which underestimate ments compatible with life. The gas well. In extreme cases, this bore- the trends in water storage relative rover Curiosity successfully landed hole can extend horizontally more to GRACE satellites, indicating in Gale Crater on Mars in August than 45,000 feet. Drilling complex that model projections of climate- 2012. Since then it has traversed a trajectories requires measurements and human-induced water storage variety of sedimentary rock types, at or just above the drill bit, which changes may be misleading. revealing fluviolacustrine sedi- identify formation and fluid types John Gruener, of the NASA ments that contain clay minerals, and communicate this information Johnson Space Center in Houston, key biogenic elements (carbon, to the surface in real time so the predicted that the Moon will play a hydrogen, oxygen, sulfur, nitrogen, borehole steering system can be com- significant role in space exploration phosphorus), and variable redox manded to follow the desired course. beyond low Earth orbit. Humans states of iron and sulfur. These rela- Bridget Scanlon of the Univer- have not set foot on the lunar sur- tively young and Earth-like environ- sity of Texas Bureau of Economic face since 1972, but that is likely to ments reveal the biologic potential Geology spoke about the Gravity change in the near future. Harness- of the Mars environment. Recovery and Climate Experiment ing energy and material resources The symposium was organized by (GRACE) satellites. These are used on the Moon will be critical to any Brian Clark, Schlumberger Fellow to monitor monthly changes in the long-term human presence, and Emeritus, with the assistance of Earth’s gravity, which is controlled resource development activities Fikri Kuchuk, Schlumberger primarily by changes in water stor- could provide commercial opportu- Fellow and chief reservoir engineer, age in response to wet and dry cli- nities for private enterprise. Water and Robert Kleinberg. Schlumberger mates and human water extraction. ice, recently discovered in the generously provided logistical and GRACE satellite data show that lunar polar regions, is one of many administrative support, and spon- there was a net increase in global resources that could be developed. sored the symposium dinner.

2018 Yvonne C. Brill Lectureship in Aerospace Engineering

The American Institute of Aero- Lab). She has found effective ways Dr. Reed is also an acknowledged nautics and Astronautics (AIAA) to create interdisciplinary teams national and international expert in is pleased to announce that it has of undergraduate and graduate laminar-to-turbulent transition. Her selected AIAA fellow Dr. Helen L. students, with industry and gov- technical expertise is reflected in Reed, Regents Professor at Texas ernment affiliates, to engage in pioneering contributions that inte- A&M University in College Sta- design-build-fly of operational small grate discernment of the fundamen- tion, for the third Yvonne C. Brill satellites, while advancing new tal physics of transitional flows with Lectureship in Aerospace Engineer- technologies that feed into national best-in-class simulations to reveal ing. Dr. Reed will present her lecture, initiatives and learning industry key phenomenological details. “Student Design-Build-Fly Micro- practices in the university environ- Her work has not only provided and Nano-Satellites,” on Octo- ment. Involving more than 1,000 essential insight into complex fluid ber 2, in conjunction with the NAE students over the years, her team dynamic processes but also strongly annual meeting in Washington. has launched four small satellites influenced the development of Dr. Reed has contributed to the with the US Air Force and NASA aerospace systems. Providing com- discipline through her satellite and partnered on other projects. putational leadership, Dr. Reed design programs first at Arizona Her students have gone on to work has teamed with experimentalists State University (ASUSat Lab) at space-oriented businesses and the to achieve a high degree of closure and then at Texas A&M (AggieSat national laboratories. between theory and experiment. She The 76 BRIDGE has developed stability and transi- Society of Mechanical Engineers AIAA, with the participation tion tools that include linear stability (ASME) Kate Gleason Award for and support of the NAE, created theory, nonlinear parabolized stabil- “lifetime achievements in the fun- the Yvonne C. Brill Lectureship in ity equations, and direct numeri- damental understanding and control Aerospace Engineering to honor cal simulation of the Navier-Stokes of boundary layer transition for high- the memory of the late, pioneering equations. Her tools have supported efficiency aerospace vehicles, and in rocket scientist, AIAA Honorary and validated ground and flight pioneering small satellite design and Fellow, and NAE member Yvonne experiments aimed at understanding implementation”; and the 2007 J. C. Brill, best known for developing the physics of transition and matur- Leland Atwood Award for important a revolutionary propulsion system ing drag reducing technologies. contributions to space systems engi- that remains the industry standard Dr. Reed has been honored with neering and space systems design for geostationary satellite station the 2018 AIAA Fluid Dynamics education. At Texas A&M she holds keeping. The lecture emphasizes Award for “lifetime achievements both the title of Presidential Profes- research or engineering for space in the fundamental understanding, sor for Teaching Excellence and the travel and exploration, aerospace modeling, and control of boundary- Edward “Pete” Aldridge ’60 Profes- education of students and the pub- layer laminar-to-turbulent transition sorship. In addition to AIAA, she is lic, and other aerospace efforts such for aerospace vehicles from subsonic a fellow of ASME and the American as ensuring a diverse and robust to hypersonic”; the 2016 American Physical Society. engineering community.

2018 EngineerGirl Essay Contest on Infrastructure

The 2018 EngineerGirl essay contest ary School in Mississauga, Ontario, https://www.engineergirl.org/99787/ asked students in grades 3–12 to placed first in grades 9–12 for her 2018-Winners. pick a local infrastructure system— essay on investing in flywheel energy The 2018 EngineerGirl essay con- transportation, water treatment, storage systems in Mississauga to test was sponsored by Chevron Corp. energy, public safety, communica- serve the Ontario energy grid. All and the Kenan Institute for Engi- tion, financial security, health care, the winning essays are posted at neering, Technology, and Science. or recreation—and write about how it could be improved. Prizes—$500 for first place, $250 for second place, and $100 for third place—were awarded to students based on grade level, with certificates for honorable mentions. In grades 3–5, Aditi Gokhale, a third-grader at J. Ackerman Coles Elementary School in Scotch Plains, NJ, placed first for her essay on using self-repairing roads to fix potholes in her hometown. Seventh-grader Anvitha Mahankali, from Stoller Middle School in Portland, OR, won first place among entries from grades 6–8 for her essay on creating sensors to detect bioswale maintenance problems. And Aditi Misra, an 11th-grader at St. Joseph Second- SUMMER 2018 77

New Staff at the NAE

LAUREN BARTOLOZZI is asso- to offer with her husband, Nick. She Diamondback (the University of ciate director of development for can be reached at LBartolozzi@nas. Maryland’s newspaper), and editor the NAE, providung donors with edu. in chief of La Voz Latina newspaper leadership, vision, and a connec- (UM’s only bilingual publication). tion to the causes they care about. BRANDON GREEN has joined the Brandon is a graduate of the Uni- She relocated to the DC metro area staff of the Program Office as the versity of Maryland Philip Merrill from Ohio, where she developed new communications/media spe- College of Journalism (Multimedia). her career in fundraising first at her cialist, working on NAE’s commu- He can be reached at BGreen@nae. alma mater, Ohio University, and nications, media relations, public edu. then as a champion for women’s outreach, and social media activi- health care with Planned Parent- ties. For the past five years he worked SIERRA HALL joined the NAE hood of Greater Ohio/Advocates as a content producer and editorial President’s Office as office assis- of Ohio. Her researcher tant. Before belief that for Transport coming to the each person’s Topics, a week- Academies, full potential ly publication she worked at is directly tied and website the account- to their abil- on the truck- ing firm of ity to access ing industry. Caldwell and resources He has also Company, makes the worked as a with respon- National production sibility for a Academies a natural fit. Lauren assistant with WYPR-Maryland variety of office assistant duties. earned her bachelor’s degree in Morning with Sheila Kast, a show Sierra is a graduate of McDaniel psychology and a master’s of public on the NPR affiliate in Baltimore. College, with a BA in psychology administration from Ohio Univer- While in college, he was a reporter and a minor in accounting. She can sity. She enjoys yoga, travelling the for The Voice newspaper, multimedia be reached at [email protected]. globe, and exploring all that DC has reporter and web producer for The

Calendar of Meetings and Events

June 1 NAE Regional Meeting: Anticipating August 1–2 NAE Council Meeting the Future: Historical Narratives, Woods Hole, Massachusetts Imagination, and Innovation August 14–16 Grand Challenges Scholars Program (rescheduled) Workshop Science History Institute, Philadelphia City University of Hong Kong June 4 Workshop on Engineering Societies’ September 5–7 US Frontiers of Engineering Symposium Activities in Promoting Diversity and Lexington, Massachusetts Inclusion September 28–29 NAE Council Meeting Cincinnati September 29 NAE Peer Committee Meetings June 18–20 Japan-America Frontiers of Engineering September 30– NAE ANNUAL MEETING Tsukuba October 1 July 16 NAE-CAE Symposium: Human and Artificial Intelligence 2.0 All meetings are held in National Academies facilities in CAE Headquarters, Beijing Washington, DC, unless otherwise noted. The 78 BRIDGE

In Memoriam

STIG A. ANNESTRAND, 84, contributions to the design, manu- 2009 for contributions to reliability, retired manager, research and devel- facture, and operation of naval maintainability, and queuing con- opment, Bonneville Power Admin- nuclear reactors and to the recovery cepts, with applications to telecom- istration, died March 27, 2018. Mr. from the effects of the Three Mile munications and military systems. Annestrand was elected in 1989 for Island 2 accident. outstanding contributions to the ROBERT K. GRASSELLI, 87, development of economical and DON U. DEERE, 95, independent adjunct professor, University of reliable high-voltage AC and DC consultant, engineering geology and Delaware, died January 11, 2018. transmission technology. rock mechanics, died January 14, Dr. Grasselli was elected in 1995 for 2018. Dr. Deere was elected in 1967 the invention of catalysts and cata- MARTIN BALSER, 88, Distin- for rock mechanics. lytic processes having commercial guished Technical Fellow, Northrop significance. Grumman Corporation, died April DEAN E. EASTMAN, 78, pro- 27, 2016. Dr. Balser was elected in fessor of physics, University of ARAVIND K. JOSHI, 88, Henry 2014 for innovations in technolo- Chicago, died March 4, 2018. Dr. Salvatori Professor of Computer gies from fundamental physics that Eastman was elected in 1988 for and Cognitive Science, University significantly advanced military early work in photoemission mea- of Pennsylvania, died December 31, communications. surements and interpretation, and 2017. Dr. Joshi was elected in 1999 for subsequent leadership in process for contributions to natural lan- DAVID P. BILLINGTON, 90, and packaging technologies. guage processing. Gordon Y.S. Wu Professor of Engi- neering Emeritus, Princeton Uni- REX A. ELDER, 100, consulting JOHN F. KNOTT, 78, retired pro- versity, died March 25, 2018. Dr. hydraulic engineer, died Febru- fessor of metallurgy and materials, Billington was elected in 1986 for ary 28, 2018. Dr. Elder was elected University of Birmingham, United outstanding contributions to the in 1978 for innovations in hydraulic Kingdom, died October 5, 2017. advancement of public and profes- research, design, and operation of Dr. Knott was elected as a foreign sional appreciation of engineering large water reservoirs, river navi- member in 2003 for advancing history and design aesthetics, and gation facilities, and hydro and understanding of the mechanisms for contributions to the design of thermal power systems. and microstructure of fracture and concrete shell structures. fracture mechanics with application PER K. ENGE, 64, Vance D. and to the failure of engineering alloys P.L. THIBAUT BRIAN, 87, Arlene C. Coffman Professor of and structures. retired vice president, engineering, Aeronautics and Astronautics, Air Products and Chemicals Inc., Stanford University, died April 22, JAMES LAGO, 96, consultant died April 2, 2018. Dr. Brian was 2018. Dr. Enge was elected in 2005 and retired vice president, process elected in 1975 for contributions to for leadership in the development of R&D, Merck & Co. Inc., died Janu- both theory and engineering prac- augmentations to marine and avia- ary 1, 2018. Mr. Lago was elected tice of desalination, mass transfer in tion global positioning systems that in 1990 for pivotal engineering and chemically reactive systems, and the have become worldwide standards. management contributions to the technology of liquefied gases. development of new processes for DONALD P. GAVER JR., 91, manufacturing medicines. PHILIP R. CLARK, 87, retired Distinguished Professor of Opera- president and CEO, GPU Nuclear tions Research Emeritus, US Naval MILTON LEVENSON, 95, Corporation, died March 28, 2018. Postgraduate School, died February consultant and retired vice presi- Mr. Clark was elected in 1993 for 11, 2018. Dr. Gaver was elected in dent, Bechtel International, died SUMMER 2018 79

March 31, 2018. Dr. Levenson was LUCIEN A. SCHMIT JR., 89, METE A. SOZEN, 87, Kettelhut elected in 1976 for contributions to Rockwell Professor of Aerospace Distinguished Professor of Structural fast reactor technology, nuclear fuel Engineering Emeritus, University Engineering, Purdue University, reprocessing, and especially the first of California, Los Angeles, died died April 5, 2018. Dr. Sozen was remote-handling completely closed March 16, 2018. Dr. Schmit was elected in 1977 for contributions fuel-cycle plant. elected in 1985 for pioneering work to understanding the structural in structural synthesis, combining design and behavior of buildings THOMAS S. MADDOCK, 89, finite element analysis and non- and bridges subjected to earthquake consulting engineer, died Febru- linear programming algorithms to motions. ary 3, 2018. Dr. Maddock was create a powerful class of modern elected in 1993 for contributions structural design methods. CHARLES E. TAYLOR, 93, pro- to the development of management fessor emeritus of engineering sci- systems required for design of com- BAL RAJ SEHGAL, 84, emeritus ences, University of Florida, died plex water resource projects. professor of nuclear power safety, February 18, 2018. Dr. Taylor was KTH Royal Institute of Technology, elected in 1979 for pioneering CORDELL REED, 79, retired Sweden, died February 26, 2018. developments in three-dimensional senior vice president, Common- Professor Sehgal was elected in photo elasticity and in the use of wealth Edison Company, died 2013 for contributions to predicting lasers and holography in experi December 4, 2017. Mr. Reed was accident behavior of nuclear reactor mental mechanics. elected in 1992 for outstanding systems. leadership and contributions to the JAMES S. THORP, 81, Hugh P. advancement of engineering, opera- PAUL G. SHEWMON, 85, profes- and Ethel C. Kelly Professor Emeri- tions, and management of commer- sor emeritus, Ohio State Univer- tus, Virginia Polytechnic Institute cial nuclear power. sity, died November 26, 2015. Dr. and State University, died May 2, Shewmon was elected in 1979 for 2018. Dr. Thorp was elected in 1996 DALE F. RUDD, 82, professor contributions to metals science and for contributions to the develop- emeritus, University of Wisconsin– engineering in the areas of diffusion ment of digital techniques for power Madison, died February 16, 2018. and phase transformation. system protection, monitoring, and Dr. Rudd was elected in 1978 for control. research and leadership on process BURTON J. SMITH, 77, techni- engineering strategy and systems cal fellow, Microsoft Corporation, PING KING TIEN, 98, fellow analysis of large economic units died April 3, 2018. Dr. Smith was emeritus, Bell Labs, Alcatel-Lucent, such as the petrochemical industry. elected in 2003 for contributions to died December 27, 2017. Dr. Tien the development of parallel com- was elected in 1975 for inventor and MURRAY B. SACHS, 77, pro- puter architecture. engineering contributions to micro- fessor of biomedical engineering, wave amplifiers and integrated opti- neuroscience, and otolaryngology, LEROY H. SMITH JR., 89, consult- cal circuits and devices. Johns Hopkins University School ing technologist, Turbomachinery of Medicine, died March 4, 2018. Aerodynamics, died March 28, 2018. GEORGE L. TURIN, 84, professor Dr. Sachs was elected in 2002 for Dr. Smith was elected in 1988 for emeritus, University of California, contributions to the understanding leadership and major contributions Berkeley, died March 14, 2014. Dr. of the neural encoding and signal in advanced fan and compressor Turin was elected in 1985 for out- processing of complex sounds, and design, and for development of meth- standing contributions to communi- for leadership in bioengineering ods for analysis of turbomachinery cation theory and practice and for education. aerodynamics. leadership in engineering education. The 80 BRIDGE Publications of Interest The following reports whose author- modate these changes, aviation nesses in STEM teaching, learning, ing committees included NAE safety programs also need to evolve and student supports. Improving members were recently published to ensure that changes to the NAS undergraduate STEM education by the National Academy of Engi- do not inadvertently introduce new to address these weaknesses is a neering or the National Research risks. Real-time systemwide safety national imperative. This report Council. Unless otherwise noted, assurance (RSSA) is one of six focus outlines a framework and indica- all publications are for sale (pre- areas for the National Aeronautics tors that document the status and paid) from the National Acade- and Space Administration (NASA) quality of undergraduate STEM mies Press (NAP), 500 Fifth Street aeronautics program. NASA envi- education at the national level NW–Keck 360, Washington, DC sions that an RSSA system would over multiple years. It also indicates 20055. For more information or to provide information, analysis, and areas where additional research is place an order, contact NAP online assessment that support awareness needed in order to develop appro- at or by phone at and action to mitigate risks to safety. priate measures. The report will be (888) 624-6242. (Note: Prices quoted This report identifies challenges to useful to government agencies that are subject to change without notice. establishing an RSSA system and make investments in higher educa- There is a 10 percent discount for the high-priority research that tion, institutions of higher education, online orders when you sign up for a should be implemented by NASA private funders of higher educa- MyNAP account. Add $6.50 for ship- and others in government, industry, tion programs, industry stake ping and handling for the first book and and academia to expedite develop- holders, and researchers who study $1.50 for each additional book. Add ment of such a system. higher education. applicable sales tax or GST if you live Meyer J. Benzakein, assistant Stephen W. Director, provost in CA, CT, DC, FL, MD, NY, NC, vice president, Aerospace and Avia- and University Distinguished Pro- VA, WI, or Canada.) tion Research, Ohio State Univer- fessor, Northeastern University, was sity, and R. John Hansman Jr., T. a member of the study committee. In-Time Aviation Safety Management: Wilson Professor of Aeronautics Paper, $55.00. Challenges and Research for an Evolv- and Astronautics and director, MIT ing Aviation System. Decades of effort International Center for Air Trans- Making Medicines Affordable: A Nation- to address both known hazards in portation, Massachusetts Institute al Imperative. The United States is the national airspace system (NAS) of Technology, served on the study facing a seemingly uncontrolled rise and problems illuminated by analy- committee. Paper, $50.00. in the cost of health care. Total med- sis of incidents and accidents have ical expenditures are approaching made commercial airlines the safest Indicators for Monitoring Undergraduate 20 percent of GDP and crowding out mode of transportation. But the task STEM Education. Science, technol- other national priorities. Expensive of maintaining their high level of ogy, engineering, and mathematics prescription drugs are a significant safety is complicated by the dynamic (STEM) professionals generate a part of the problem. Affordabil- nature of the NAS: the number of stream of scientific discoveries and ity is a complex function of fac- commercial transport flights is ris- technological innovations that fuel tors, including not just the prices ing, air traffic control systems and job creation and national economic of the drugs themselves but also the procedures are being modernized growth. Ensuring a robust supply details of an individual’s insurance to increase NAS capacity and effi of these professionals is especially coverage and medical conditions. ciency, autonomous systems are critical at a time of intense global This report examines patient access being developed for aircraft and competition. But many capable stu- to affordable and effective thera- ground systems, and small aircraft— dents who intend to major in STEM pies, with emphasis on drug pric- especially unmanned aircraft switch to another field or drop out ing, inflation in the cost of drugs, systems—are becoming more preva- of higher education altogether, and insurance design. It explores lent. As the NAS evolves to accom- partly because of documented weak- structural and policy factors that SUMMER 2018 81

influence drug pricing, drug access final report will lay out a vision for Bolting Reliability for Offshore Oil programs, the role of comparative future data science education. and Natural Gas Operations: Proceed- effectiveness assessments in pay- Laura M. Haas (cochair), dean, ings of a Workshop. A workshop in ment policies, changing finances of College of Information and Com- April 2017 was designed to advance medical practice with regard to drug puter Sciences, University of awareness of issues associated with costs and reimbursement, and mea- Massachusetts Amherst, and David subsea fastener material failures and sures to prevent drug shortages and E. Culler, professor, electrical engi- equipment reliability. Speakers and foster innovation in drug develop- neering and computer science, participants also discussed possible ment. It recommends policy actions University of California, Berkeley, paths for addressing risks associ- that could address drug price trends, served on the study committee. ated with fasteners used for subsea improve patient access to afford- Ebook, $34.99. critical equipment in oil and gas able and effective treatments, and operations. This publication sum- encourage innovations that address Report 2 on Tracking and Assessing marizes the workshop presentations significant needs in health care. Governance and Management Reform and discussions. Norman R. Augustine (chair), in the Nuclear Security Enterprise. The Robert E. Schafrik Sr. (chair), retired chair and CEO, Lockheed congressionally mandated report retired general manager, Aviation Martin Corporation, and Vinod K. A New Foundation for the Nuclear Engineering Division, General Sahney, Distinguished University Enterprise (the “Augustine-Mies Electric Aviation; Clyde L. Briant, Professor, Northeastern Univer- report”), released in November professor of engineering, Brown sity, and retired senior vice presi- 2014, concluded that “the existing University; Thomas W. Eagar, pro- dent and chief strategy officer, Blue governance structures and many fessor of materials engineering and Cross and Blue Shield of Massachu- of the practices of the [nuclear engineering management, Massa- setts, served on the study commit- security] enterprise are inefficient chusetts Institute of Technology; tee. Paper, $65.00. and ineffective, thereby putting David W. Johnson Jr., retired edi- the entire enterprise at risk over tor in chief, Journal of the American Envisioning the Data Science Disci- the long term.” Following the Ceramic Society; David K. Matlock, pline: The Undergraduate Perspective: release of that report, the National University Emeritus Professor, Interim Report. Data science, which Defense Authorization Act for FY George S. Ansell Department of addresses the accumulation of data 2016 called for DOE to develop an Metallurgical and Materials Engi- and the need to manage and under- implementation plan for the rec- neering, Colorado School of Mines; stand them, draws on diverse fields ommendations in that and similar Jyotirmoy Mazumder, Robert H. and encompasses topics in ethics reports. The NDAA also called for a Lurie Professor of Mechanical Engi- and privacy. The ability to use these 4½-year joint study, by the National neering, University of Michigan; data and tools requires a workforce Academies of Sciences, Engineer- Roger L. McCarthy, consultant, with the necessary skills and exper- ing, and Medicine and the National McCarthy Engineering; and Pol tise. Although undergraduate and Academy of Public Administration, D. Spanos, L.B. Ryon Endowed graduate data science programs have to evaluate the implementation Chair in Engineering, Rice Univer- been established, the field is still plan, track the actions proposed in sity, served on the study committee. in its infancy, suggesting the need the plan, and assess progress. This Paper, $55.00. to plan for what it might look like report is the second in a series of in the future and determine steps to reports to be issued over 2017–20 as Assessing and Responding to the Growth move data science education in that part of that study. of Computer Science Undergraduate direction. This study will set forth Paul A. Fleury, Frederick Enrollments. The field of computer a vision for the discipline of data William Beinecke Professor of Engi- science (CS) is experiencing a surge science at the undergraduate level. neering and Applied Physics and in undergraduate degree production This interim report offers perspec- professor of physics, Yale University, and course enrollments, straining tives on the state of data science was a member of the study commit- program resources at many institu- education and poses questions to tee. Ebook, $29.99. tions and causing concern among help shape the way it evolves. The faculty and administrators about The 82 BRIDGE how best to respond to the rapidly applications of encryption to cyber- tem will be challenging for decades growing demand. This report exam- security, the role of encryption in to come. This report offers a deci- ines drivers of the enrollment surge, protecting privacy and civil liber- sion framework to support the long- relationships between the surge and ties, the needs of law enforcement term management of risks in light current and potential gains in diver- and the intelligence community for of regional economic, cultural, and sity in the field, potential impacts of information, technical and policy social priorities and the roles of fed- responses to the increased demand options for accessing plaintext, eral, tribal, state, and local authori- for computing in higher education, and the international landscape. It ties, among others. and likely effects of those responses describes the context for decisions Gregory B. Baecher, Glenn L. on students, faculty, and institutions. about giving authorized government Martin Institute Professor of Engi- The report provides recommenda- agencies access to the plaintext ver- neering, Department of Civil and tions for institutions of higher edu- sion of encrypted information, and Environmental Engineering, Uni- cation, government agencies, and characterizes possible mechanisms versity of Maryland, College Park, the private sector to respond to the and alternative means of obtaining chaired the study committee. Paper, surge and plan for a strong and sus- information. $75.00. tainable future for CS, the health of Dan Boneh, professor, computer institutions of higher education, and science and electrical engineer- Understanding and Predicting the Gulf the prosperity of the nation. ing, Stanford University; Frederick of Mexico Loop Current: Critical Gaps Jared L. Cohon (cochair), R. Chang, Bobby B. Lyle Centen- and Recommendations. The Gulf of president emeritus and Univer- nial Distinguished Chair in Cyber Mexico Loop Current System (LCS) sity Professor, Department of Civil Security, Southern Methodist consists of the loop current (LC) and Environmental Engineering, University; Shafrira Goldwasser, and loop current eddies (LCEs), and CMU–Engineering and Public professor, Computer Science and their position, strength, and struc- Policy, Carnegie Mellon Univer- Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, ture affect hurricane intensity, off- sity, and David E. Culler, professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technol- shore safety, harmful algal blooms, oil electrical engineering and computer ogy; and Steven B. Lipner, execu- spill response, the entire Gulf food science, University of California, tive director, SAFECode, served on chain, shallow water nutrient supply, Berkeley, served on the study com- the study committee. Paper, $45.00. the fishing industry, tourism, and the mittee. Paper, $70.00. Gulf Coast economy. It is therefore A Decision Framework for Managing the essential to understand both the Decrypting the Encryption Debate: Spirit Lake and Toutle River System at dynamics of the LCS and the Gulf of A Framework for Decision Makers. Mount St. Helens. The 1980 eruption Mexico’s full oceanographic system. Encrypted communications are of Mount St. Helens in southwest This report recommends a strategy provided by computing devices Washington state radically changed to address gaps in understanding of and services—such as smartphones, the region’s physical and socio- LCS processes in order to improve laptops, and messaging applica- economic landscapes. It sent large the ability to predict LC/LCE positions—that are used by individuals, amounts of debris into the North tion, evolving structure, extent, organizations, and governments. At Fork Toutle River and blocked the and speed as well as overall Gulf of the same time, criminals use encryp- sole means of drainage from Spirit Mexico circulation. The strategy tion to avoid investigation and pros- Lake 4 miles north of Mount St. calls for a long-term observational ecution, and encryption complicates Helens. As a result of the block- campaign and complementary data law enforcement and intelligence age, rising lake levels put the down- assimilation and numerical modeling investigations: when communica- stream population of approximately efforts. The resulting knowledge will tions are encrypted “end to end,” 50,000 at risk of catastrophic flood- promote safe oil and gas operations intercepted messages cannot be ing and mud flows. The legacy of and disaster response in the gulf. understood, and the contents of a that eruption and the prospect of Paul G. Gaffney II, president locked and encrypted smartphone future volcanic, seismic, and flood emeritus, Monmouth University, cannot be read if the phone is seized events mean that risk management chaired the study committee. Paper, by investigators. This report reviews in the Spirit Lake–Toutle River sys- $36.00. SUMMER 2018 83

Designing Safety Regulations for High- president, K Arnold Consulting record of the three transportation Hazard Industries. This TRB Special Inc., and Louis Anthony Cox Jr., modes in moving these hazardous Report (324) examines factors rele- president, Cox Associates LLC, shipments. It urges the US Depart- vant to government safety regulators served on the study committee. ment of Transportation’s Pipeline when choosing regulatory design Paper, $49.00. and Hazardous Materials Safety types, particularly for preventing Administration to further the devel- low-frequency, high-consequence The Frontiers of Machine Learning: opment of robust safety assurance events. In such contexts safety regu- 2017 Raymond and Beverly Sackler systems to ensure more timely and lations are often scrutinized after US-UK Scientific Forum. The field effective responses to future safety an incident, but their effectiveness of machine learning is advancing challenges. The recommendations can be inherently difficult to assess rapidly, thanks to increased com- include advice on traffic and safety when their main purpose is to reduce puting power, better algorithms data reporting, industry and local catastrophic failures that are rare to and tools, and greater availability community consultation, and the begin with. Nonetheless, regulators of data. Machine learning is used creation of risk metrics. of high-hazard industries must have in a range of applications, includ- Paul G. Gaffney II (chair), presi- a reasoned basis for design choices. ing transportation and the devel- dent emeritus, Monmouth Univer- Asked to compare the advantages opment of automated vehicles, sity; Ali Mosleh, Distinguished and disadvantages of so-called “pre- health care and understanding of Professor and Evelyn Knight Chair scriptive” and “performance-based” the genetic basis of disease, and in Engineering, University of regulatory designs, the study com- criminal justice and the ability to California, Los Angeles; and Craig mittee explains how these labels predict recidivism. As the technol- E. Philip, research professor and are often used in an inconsistent ogy advances, it promises additional director, VECTOR, Department of and misleading manner that can applications that can contribute to Civil and Environmental Engineer- obfuscate regulatory choices. The individual and societal well-being. ing, Vanderbilt University, served report focuses on whether a regula- The Raymond and Beverly Sackler on the study committee. Paper, tion requires the use of a means or US-UK Scientific Forum “The $47.00. the attainment of some ends, and Frontiers of Machine Learning” whether it targets individual com- took place January 31–February 1, Review of NASA’s Evidence Reports ponents of a larger problem (micro 2017, in Washington. Participants on Human Health Risks: 2017 Letter level) or directs attention to the included industry leaders, machine Report. This is the fifth and final in larger problem (macro level). Four learning researchers, and experts in a series of letter reports reviewing main types of regulatory design are privacy and the law, and this report the more than 30 evidence reports identified, and the rationale for and summarizes their discussions. that NASA has compiled on human challenges associated with each Cynthia Dwork, Gordon McKay health risks for long-duration and are examined under different high- Professor of Computer Science, exploration spaceflights. In its hazard applications. The report John A. Paulson School of Engi- review of five evidence reports, this concludes that too much emphasis neering, Harvard University, was a letter report examines the quality is placed on simplistic lists of gener- member of the planning committee. of the evidence, analysis, and con- ic advantages and disadvantages of Ebook, $29.99. struction of each; identifies gaps in regulatory design types. It explains report content; and provides sugges- that a safety regulator should choose Safely Transporting Hazardous Liquids tions for additional sources of expert a regulatory design (or combination and Gases in a Changing US Energy input. of designs) suited to the nature of Landscape. TRB’s Special Report Laurence R. Young, Apollo Pro- the problem, characteristics of the 325 reviews how the pipeline, rail, gram Professor of Astronautics and regulated industry, and the regu- and barge industries have fared in professor of health sciences and lator’s capacity to promote and safely transporting increased vol- technology, Massachusetts Institute enforce compliance. umes of domestically produced of Technology, was a member of the Kenneth E. Arnold, senior tech- energy liquids and gases. The report study committee. Ebook, $34.99. nical advisor, WorleyParsons, and examines the safety assurance and The 84 BRIDGE

Interim Report of the Committee on a building ITER, but the construc- ening the foundations for realizing Strategic Plan for US Burning Plasma tion schedule has slipped and its fusion energy given a choice of US Research. In January 2003 Presi- costs have increased significantly, participation or not in the ITER dent George W. Bush announced leading to questions about whether project, and develop future scenari- that the United States would begin the United States should continue os in either case. This interim report negotiations to join the Interna- its commitment to participate. assesses the current status of US tional Thermonuclear Experimental This study will advise how to best fusion research and of the impor- Reactor (ITER) project and noted advance the fusion energy sci- tance of burning plasma research to that “if successful, ITER would cre- ences in the United States given the development of fusion energy as ate the first fusion device capable developments and international well as to plasma science and other of producing thermal energy com- investments in the field, and the science and engineering disciplines. parable to the output of a power priorities for the next 10 years C. Paul Robinson, president plant, making commercially viable developed by the community and emeritus, Sandia National Labora- fusion power available as soon the DOE Office of Fusion Energy tories, is a member of the study com- as 2050.” The United States and Sciences (FES). It will address the mittee. Ebook, $34,99. the other ITER members are now scientific justification for strength-

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