Summer 2018 INFRASTRUCTURE The BRIDGE LINKING ENGINEERING AND SOCIETY The Future Design of Sustainable Infrastructure Michael D. Lepech The Promise of Smart and Resilient Cities Reginald DesRoches and John E. Taylor Use of Radar Data to Assess Water Infrastructure Resiliency and Sustainability Theodore V. Hromadka II and Prasada Rao Are Our Bridges Safe? Andrzej S. Nowak and Olga Iatsko The US Electric Power System Infrastructure and Its Vulnerabilities Theodore U. Marston Trends in Container Terminal Infrastructure and Technology Omar A. Jaradat The Role of Infrastructure in an Automated Vehicle Future Ryan J. Harrington, Carmine Senatore, John M. Scanlon, and Ryan M. Yee The mission of the National Academy of Engineering is to advance the well-being of the nation by promoting a vibrant engineering profession and by marshalling the expertise and insights of eminent engineers to provide independent advice to the federal government on matters involving engineering and technology. The BRIDGE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING Gordon R. England, Chair C. D. Mote, Jr., President Corale L. Brierley, Vice President Julia M. Phillips, Home Secretary Ruth A. David, Foreign Secretary Martin B. Sherwin, Treasurer Editor in Chief: Ronald M. Latanision Managing Editor: Cameron H. Fletcher Production Assistant: Penelope Gibbs The Bridge (ISSN 0737-6278) is published quarterly by the National Aca d emy of Engineering, 2101 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20418. Periodicals postage paid at Washington, DC. Vol. 48, No. 2, Summer 2018 Postmaster: Send address changes to The Bridge, 2101 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20418. Papers are presented in The Bridge on the basis of general interest and time- liness. They reflect the views of the authors and not necessarily the position of the National Academy of Engineering. The Bridge is printed on recycled paper. C © 2018 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Mission Statement of The Bridge The Bridge publishes articles on engineering research, education, and practice; science and technology policy; and the interface between engineering and technology and society. The intent is to stimulate debate and dialogue both among members of the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) and in the broader community of policymakers, educators, business leaders, and other interested individuals. The Bridge relies on its editor in chief, NAE members, and staff to identify potential issue topics and guest editors. Invited guest editors, who have expertise in a given issue’s theme, are asked to select authors and topics and to enlist colleagues to assess (in aggregate) articles for publication. The quarterly has a distribution of about 7,000, including NAE members, members of Congress, libraries, universities, and interested individuals. Issues are available at www.nae.edu/Publications/Bridge.aspx. A complete copy of The Bridge is available in PDF format at www.nae.edu/TheBridge. Some of the articles in this issue are also available as HTML documents and may contain links to related sources of information, multimedia files, or other content. The Volume 48, Number 2 • Summer 2018 BRIDGE LINKING ENGINEERING AND SOCIETY Editors’ Note 3 A Vision for the Future of America’s Infrastructure Piotr Moncarz and Michael D. Lepech Features 5 The Future Design of Sustainable Infrastructure Michael D. Lepech New probabilistic, performance-based limit state design approaches for sustainability can prompt innovative solutions that meet sustainability goals in ways that are safe and economical. 13 The Promise of Smart and Resilient Cities Reginald DesRoches and John E. Taylor Smart technologies and systems can improve disaster monitoring and threat assessment to strengthen cities’ ability to predict and prepare for disaster impacts. 21 Use of Radar Data to Assess Water Infrastructure Resiliency and Sustainability Theodore V. Hromadka II and Prasada Rao Radar data can be used for risk assessment and planning for sustainability in land development and infrastructure needs. 26 Are Our Bridges Safe? Andrzej S. Nowak and Olga Iatsko New materials, technologies, design techniques, monitoring equipment and procedures, and sensors can and should be used to make bridges safer. 31 The US Electric Power System Infrastructure and Its Vulnerabilities Theodore U. Marston The reliability of the US electric power system is increasingly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, use of renewable energy sources, and cyberattacks. 40 Trends in Container Terminal Infrastructure and Technology Omar A. Jaradat Research, investment, and information sharing are needed to ensure critical upgrades in US container terminal capacity and infrastructure. (continued on next page) 48 The Role of Infrastructure in an Automated Vehicle Future Ryan J. Harrington, Carmine Senatore, John M. Scan- lon, and Ryan M. Yee Infrastructure modifications could enhance and expedite the development and performance of AV technology to support the vision of zero road traffic fatalities. 56 An Interview with… Sylvia Acevedo, CEO, Girl Scouts of the USA News and Notes 65 NAE Newsmakers 68 NAE Chair, Vice President, and Councillors Elected 69 NAE Honors 2018 Draper Prize Winner 72 NAE-NAM Regional Meeting on Technobiology at the University of Miami 73 NAE Regional Meeting at UCSD: How Interdisciplinary Collaboration and Data Science Are Making the Invisible Visible 74 NAE Regional Meeting Hosted by Schlumberger 75 2018 Yvonne C. Brill Lectureship in Aerospace Engineering 76 2018 EngineerGirl Essay Contest on Infrastructure 77 New Staff at the NAE 77 Calendar of Meetings and Events 78 In Memoriam 80 Publications of Interest The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an emy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongov- Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to ernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objec- The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 tive analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected Academies also encourage education and research, recognize out- by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. standing contributions to knowledge, and increase public understand- Mote, Jr., is president. ing in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Acad- and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. 3 Editors’ Note investment is associated with higher aggregate demand, lower unemployment, and increased productivity and gross domestic product in the long run (Stupak 2018). Infrastructure investment must also be viewed as a core component of sustainable development. Because such investment occurs in multidecadal cycles, it is nec- Piotr Moncarz (NAE) is a prin- essary to establish a trajectory toward comprehensive cipal engineer with Exponent sustainability now. Failure Analysis Associates, Today’s investments in surface transportation will Menlo Park, CA. result in less time spent on congested roadways and more discretionary time for motorists (ASCE 2017). Today’s investments in renewable energy production will lower the carbon emissions of the nation’s electric- ity supply (Hertwich 2015). And today’s investments Michael Lepech is an associate in electric automobiles will enable centralized emission controls during power generation rather than decentral- professor of civil and environ- ized emission controls at the tailpipe (Hawkins et al. mental engineering and senior 2013). These are just a few examples of how infrastruc- fellow at the Woods Institute ture investment can directly deliver social, environ- for the Environment at Stanford mental, and economic benefits and enable achievement University. of long-term sustainable development goals. Yet there remain large funding shortages in infra- A Vision for the Future of structure investment: a gap of nearly $1.5 trillion is predicted through 2025 (ASCE 2017). This breaks America’s Infrastructure down into estimated shortfalls for the following types In today’s political climate, there are few issues that gen- of infrastructure: $1.1 trillion for surface transportation, erate broad agreement. One that does is the importance $105 billion for water and wastewater, $177 billion for of long-term investment in core national infrastructure electricity, $42 million for airports, and $15 billion systems—roads, bridges, seaports, airports, railroads, for waterways and seaports (ASCE 2017). The sources water systems, power systems, and telecommunication of these investments are not clear. networks. Thoughtful, deliberate preparation is needed Yet circumstances are not as dire as they may seem. As as the challenges of tomorrow remain highly uncertain noted by others, “there is plenty of money, especially