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Tsunami Protection Height Prediction Tsunami Protection Height Prediction Predicting Tsunamis Level I Tsunami Protection Height 1. Coastal structures protect property or help the evacuation process 2. For frequent but low-level events (several decades to 150 years) Level II Tsunami Evacuation Height 1. Soft measures (evacuation) to protect lives 2. For infrequent higher level events (1,000 years) Central Government Guidelines to Local Governments Deciding Tsunami Design Height (Tsunami Protection Height), Level I 1. Research Historical Tsunamis 2. Plot the Data 3. Select Level I Tsunami Heights 4. Numerical Simulations to Calculate Tsunami Height 5. Map the Data 6. Decide the Level I Tsunami Protection Height 7. Considerations of Tsunami Barrier Height Japanese Old Documents: Kamakura Oonikki Kamakura Oonikki (a Chronicle from 1180 to 1589) In August 15, 1498, there was a big earthquake. A big flood attacked Kamakura city. It ran up close to the first archway of the main shrine. The water came to the temple of the Great Buddha and destroyed the hall. There were more than 200 deaths by drowning. Photo: Kamakura Oonikki Kokushokankokai Manuscript Local Government Analysis Analysis for Kamakura, Yokohama and Tokyo Bay Tokyo Kanagawa Chiba Japan Maps: Google Earth, Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy. NGA, GEBCO, Data Japan Hydrographic Association, © 2016 ZENRIN, Image Landsat Local Government Analysis Analysis for Kamakura, Yokohama and Tokyo Bay 1. Numerical simulation results of past tsunamis: Genroku Kanto Earthquake (1703) Keicho Earthquake (1605) Meiou Tokai Earthquake (1498) 2. Numerical tsunami simulation results for earthquake scenarios: North Tokyo Bay Earthquake Miura-Boso (Tokyo Bay Mouth) Earthquake 3. Recorded past tsunami heights (analysis of old documents) Kamakura - Old Capital City 4. Bored (drilled) for samples of tsunami sediments Tsunami Height Evaluation Kamakura, Zushi, and Hayama Historical Record Numerical Simulation 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 Meio Taisho-Kanto 8 7 Earthquake Genroku Earthquake 7 Earthquake 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 Tsunami Height (m) Height Tsunami 2 (m) Height Tsunami 2 Ansei 1 Earthquake 1 0 0 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Year Tsunamis Source: Kanagawa Prefectural Government, 2012 Map: Google Earth, Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy. NGA, GEBCO © 2016 ZENRIN Calculated Tsunami Flood Area: Kamakura, Meiou Earthquake (1498) Kamakura City Zushi City Flood Depth ■ 0.01 ~ 0.3 (m) ■ 0.3 ~ 1.0 (m) ■ 1.0 ~ 2.0 (m) ■ 2.0 ~ 3.0 (m) ■ 3.0 ~ 4.0 (m) ■ 4.0 ~ 5.0 (m) ■ 5.0 ~ 10.0 (m) ■ 10.0 ~ 20.0 (m) ■ ~ 20.0 (m) Source: Kanagawa Prefectural Government, 2012 Calculated Tsunami Flood Area: Yokohama, Keicho Earthquake (1605) Yokohama Central Station Minatomirai Nishi-Ku Flood Depth Naka-Ku ■ 0.01 ~ 0.3 (m) ■ 0.3 ~ 1.0 (m) ■ 1.0 ~ 2.0 (m) ■ 2.0 ~ 3.0 (m) ■ 3.0 ~ 4.0 (m) ■ 4.0 ~ 5.0 (m) ■ 5.0 ~ 10.0 (m) Minami-Ku ■ 10.0 ~ 20.0 (m) ■ ~ 20.0 (m) Source: Kanagawa Prefectural Government, 2012 Application to Tohoku Tsunami Propagation over the Ocean Data used for Calculations Topography Data (Japanese Cabinet Office) → Grid size A. 1350m B. 450m C. 150m Initial Profile of Tsunami Wave 450m 1350m (Geospatial Information Authority of Japan) 150m → Model of Mansinha and Smylie (1971) Faults → Two different faults are given at the same time Solve the Non-linear Long Wave Equation Source: Sekine and Shibayama, 2012 100 minutes Source: Sekine and Shibayama, 2012 Measurement Comparison Estimates are evaluated against NOWPHAS wave gauge observations. 10 Estimation Observation 5 Northern Iwate Prefecture 0 0 20 40 60 80 Wave height (m) height Wave -5 Time (min) 10 Estimation ) Observation 5 Southern 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Iwate Prefecture -5 Wave height (m height Wave -10 Time (min) Estimation 15 ) Observation 10 5 Central 0 Miyagi Prefecture -5 0 20 40 60 80 100 -10 Wave height (m height Wave -15 Time (min) Data: NOWPHAS, 2011. Observation Data of Tohoku Tsunami in 2011 [http://nowphas.mlit.go.jp/nowphasdata/static/sub311.htm] Source: Sekine and Shibayama, 2012 / Map: Google Earth, Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy. NGA, GEBCO, Image Landsat Oshika Simulation Results Peninsula 15 47 min Natori ) 10 River 5 0 Wave Wave height (m 0 50 100 150 -5 Time (min) 15 ) 10 Sendai Gulf 5 1.The first wave was Wave Wave height (m 0 0 50 100 150 reflected to the north of -5 Time (min) Oshika Peninsula 15 2.The reflected wave was ) 10 refracted and traveled into 5 the Sendai gulf. 0 Wave Wave height (m 0 50 100 150 -5 Time (min) Source: Sekine and Shibayama, 2012 Map: Google Earth, Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy. NGA, GEBCO, Image Landsat Flood Calculation Topography Data (Japanese Cabinet Office) → Grid Size: 50m Roughness (Kotani et al., 1988) Input Data Area Roughness Inland water level is calculated High Density 0.080 using the offshore results for Residential Area shoreline boundary conditions. Middle Density 0.060 Residential Area Front condition of incoming wave is Low Density 0.040 given as Aida (1977) Residential Area Forest, Trees 0.030 qxorqy C0H gH Paddy field 0.020 : 0.5 C0 q : Flow rate per unit width Ocean, River 0.025 H : Wave Height Source: Sekine and Shibayama, 2012 180 minutes Source: Sekine and Shibayama, 2012 / Map: © OpenStreetMap contributors Flood Simulation Results: Flood Area Overestimated Area Blue contour: Observation Underestimated Area Red contour： Simulation There are still some inaccuracies in simulation results Source: Sekine and Shibayama, 2012 Map: Google Earth, Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy. NGA, GEBCO, Image © 2016 TerraMetrics Flood Simulation Results: Flood Area According to the location, simulated inundation heights were overestimated or underestimated. 6 7 ) 5 6 5 4 POINT12 ) 4 3 obs12 3 POINT1 2 2 obs1 1 1 0 Inundationheight (m 0 0 50 100 150 200 0 50 100 150 200 Time (min) Time (min) Inundationheight (m 6 14 ) ) 5 12 4 10 8 3 POINT6 6 POINT5 2 4 obs6 obs5 1 2 Inundationheight (m Inundationheight (m 0 0 0 50 100 150 200 0 50 100 150 200 Time (min) Time (min) Source: Sekine and Shibayama, 2012 Map: Google Earth, Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy. NGA, GEBCO, Image © 2016 TerraMetrics Flood Simulation Results: Flood Area The second wave had a greater influence on inland areas than on coastal areas. 6 7 ) 5 6 5 4 POINT12 ) 4 3 obs12 3 POINT1 2 2 obs1 1 1 0 Inundationheight (m 0 0 50 100 150 200 0 50 100 150 200 Time (min) Time (min) Inundationheight (m 6 14 ) ) 5 12 4 10 8 3 POINT6 6 POINT5 2 4 obs6 obs5 1 2 Inundationheight (m Inundationheight (m 0 0 0 50 100 150 200 0 50 100 150 200 Time (min) Time (min) Source: Sekine and Shibayama, 2012 Map: Google Earth, Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy. NGA, GEBCO, Image © 2016 TerraMetrics Effects of Global Warming Components of a Storm Surge Rapid Development: Yolanda (2013), Nemuro (2014) Route Change: Nargis (2008) Typhoon, Cyclone, Hurricane Wind (1) Wave (Run-up) (2) Wind Driven Surge Coast levee or Dike (3) Pressure Surge (4) Tide 2. Wind Driven Surge with Wave Storm Surge Simulation Model Typhoon Simulation WRF Weather Research and Forecasting (Skamarock et al., 2008) TC-Bogus 1. Wind velocity (Hsiao et al., 2010) 2. Atmospheric pressure 1&2 1 Storm Surge Simulation Unstructured Grid, Finite FVCOM Third-generation Volume Community Ocean SWAN wave model for Model (Chen et al., 2003) (Booji et al., 1999) coastal regions WXtide (Flater, 1998) Result of Storm Surge Future predictions This simulation used the surface temperature from MIROC 5 (Watanabe et al., 2008) that was calculated under the RCP8.5 scenario. Surface Temperature (K) Surface temperature at 2:00, November 7, 2013 (PHT) Surface temperature at 2:00, November 7, 2100 (PHT) (IPCC AR5 RCP8.5 scenario, MIROC5) Source: Oyama, 2014 2013 2100 Calculation of storm surge height in 2100 Calculations for 2013 and 2100 and measured storm surge height Leyte Tacloban Samar Surge Height Height (m) Surge FVCOM + setup 2100 (m) FVCOM + setup (m) Measured (m) FVCOM + wave setup 2100 (m) FVCOM + wave setup (m) Measured (m) Source: Oyama, 2014 Effects of Global Warming Kanagawa Future Projections To forecast 100 years later PAST FORECAST PROJECTION Present ? 1958 … … … 08 09 10 2011 2 days … … 16 days later 100 yrs later Past Future Temporal axis Prediction of Future Cyclone Future potential weather field and storm surge for the year 2100 IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenario A1B Integrated world, the economy and way of life will converge between regions Increased socio-cultural interactions Balanced emphasis on all energy sources Future Scenario A1B Atmospheric CO2 concentration will reach 720 ppm in the year 2100 Population growth, land use change are low GDP growth and energy use is very high Medium resource availability New and efficient technologies are rapidly introduced Calculation condition for the year 2100 Sea surface temperature will increase, e.g. around the Bay of Bengal by +2.2ºC Sea level will rise by 0.35m Source: IPCC AR4 Summary for Policy makers, 2007 Forecast: 100 years later IPCC A1B In Tokyo Bay Typhoon Fitow (2007) in 2100 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Sea Level Rise (SRL (cm)) A1B A1B [+20] Sep 6 00:00 – Sep 7 18:00 SST (°/ 100y) Sea Level (cm / 100y) Maps and Source: Japan Meteorological Agency website, 2013 [http://www.data.jma.go.jp/cpdinfo/GWP/Vol7/pdf/811.pdf] Results: Comparison between 2007 and 2100 5.0 5.1 5.2 3.7 4.9 4.9 3.4 3.6 5.1 3.4 3.4 4.6 3.6 3.2 a. c. e. 4.7 b.
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