Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 1

Executive Summary

Drivers and their passengers are increasingly seeking The mobile industry is developing an Create interoperable solutions, which can in the cost of LTE automotive-grade modules, in-vehicle mobile connectivity to make travelling by embedded SIM, which can enable a swap ∙∙move across brands and models, as well in particular, will depend upon how fast the between operators, without any need to have as provide economies of scale wherever technology gains economies of scale. car a safer, faster and richer experience. To meet physical access to the mobile device. The possible (even across automakers) For embedded solutions, many automakers this demand, mobile operators and automakers standardisation of the remote management of Manage connectivity in a flexible manner are looking to bring down the cost of data SIMs is scheduled to be completed in 2013. need to collaborate. In particular, mobile operators ∙∙that can accommodate potential changes connectivity (both domestic and roaming) to need to deploy network technologies that support Mobile networks are also evolving rapidly as in user services during the long lifecycle a level where services with a moderate data widespread, high-bandwidth connectivity and enable operators deploy new broadband technologies, of the vehicle. Automakers are seeking requirement, such as remote diagnostics, such as HSPA+ (High Speed Packet Access connectivity solutions that can adapt to a traffic information and connected remote management of the SIM card. plus) and LTE (Long-Term Evolution). wide range of use cases, such as a change navigation, can be provided through an However, it is quite difficult to predict how of business model, a change of mobile embedded SIM with a single upfront LTE, in particular, will be deployed in any operator and a change in the ownership payment for the lifetime of the car. specific geography given that: of the vehicle Further areas for potential cross-industry Network evolution is driven by the As they seek to meet these requirements, cooperation include: ∙∙commercial decisions of individual mobile automakers have several options to connect Advancing enablers, such as remote operators, based upon the needs of their a vehicle: Embedded devices, tethered ∙∙provisioning, billing, roaming, security cumulative customer base solutions and integrated solutions (using handsets).1 These three connectivity solutions Operational improvements (such as LTE requires additional spectrum which are not mutually exclusive. A tandem ∙∙improved service delivery by different ∙∙will either need to be licensed, or for some approach is frequently used to separate the connectivity methods (tethering operators, be re-farmed from existing allocation of costs to the beneficiary (i.e. the and smart phone integration), eCall mobile networks automaker or the driver) or to provide an deployment defining common Spectrum is licensed at a national level. option for technology upgrades for newer- requirements for telematics services and ∙∙ generation or higher bandwidth services. This optimising data usage The rapid evolution of mobile technology, portfolio of solutions is likely to continue to such as smartphones, contrasts with co-exist in the future. Exploring the opportunities for new the product development cycles in the ∙∙business developments, including joint automotive industry, which generally takes Embedded solutions need to be able to application programming interfaces three to five years to develop new vehicles, access networks with the bandwidth and (APIs) and how to create and foster which then have a typical lifespan of seven coverage characteristics necessary to support a scalable, viable and user-friendly to ten years. The long lifecycles of vehicles the envisioned services, whilst also being as application ecosystem. mean it is necessary to: “future-proof” as possible to handle network 1 evolutions. There is a risk, for example, Embedded: Both the connectivity and intelligence is built directly into the vehicle. Create durable connectivity solutions, Tethered: Connectivity is provided through external modems, while the that 2G networks in some regions may be ∙∙which require few hardware updates and intelligence remains embedded in the vehicle. switched off within the lifecycle of vehicles Integrated: Connectivity is based upon integration between the vehicle and the support over-the-air software updates for currently under development. While module owner’s handset, in which all connectivity and intelligence remain on the phone. systems and services costs will continue to fall, the rate of decline

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 2

Table of Contents

Introduction...... 4 Choosing the right automotive module? 28 Criteria affecting automotive-grade module costs 29 Development challenges for cross-industry connected services 5 Expected price evolutions for modules 29

Cellular Networks’ Capabilities...... 6 The automotive use cases for provisioning and connectivity as defined by automakers) 32 The principles underpinning mobile networks 6 The primary open areas related to connectivity use cases & enablers 37 The characteristics of cellular network technology 6 What are the key cellular network technologies? 7 Requirements related to specific services 37 Why is spectrum so important? 8 The general status of telematics and infotainment services today 37 What are automaker technology requirements for specific services? 39 What does the future hold? 9 How telematics and infotainment services are evolving 41 The mobile industry is in constant and rapid evolution 9 Network evolution is difficult to predict 9 What are the Next Steps?...... 44 What could 2020 hold for network evolution in terms of regional coverage? 10 Preface 44 Service awareness and Quality of Service – what is possible on mobile networks? 12 What does the SIM offer? 13 What are the first results from this cooperation? 44

Next steps for mobile operators 16 Where could cross-industry co-operation continue to be beneficial? 45 Priority areas for cooperation between operators and automakers 45 Automakers’ Connectivity Requirements...... 17 Who should be involved in these cross-industry activities? 46 The general automotive industry context 17 Examples of upcoming connectivity regulations impacting the automotive sector 18 Annex...... 47 Considerations for driver distraction 20 Glossary 47 What are the connectivity options for automakers? 21 Cellular Network Technology: Additional Details 49 Dealing with the trade-offs of the different connectivity choices 25 Primary operator principles 49 The obstacles to successful tethering 26 Network characteristics 52 Network evolution considerations for connected car services 27 Why is spectrum so important? 53 Automakers’ business models for telematics 28 Network Generation: Details 55 The management of connectivity-related service costs 28 Regional deployment details 57

Regional Deployment Plans for LTE 58

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 3

Index of Figures

Figure 1: Automaker and Operator Interaction to Foster Telematics and Infotainment Services 4 Figure 23: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats for Tethered Connectivity Solutions (embedded modem with intelligence in the car) 23 Figure 2: Problem Statement between Automakers and Mobile Operators 5 Figure 24: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats for Tethered Connectivity Solutions Figure 3: Typical Mobile Technology Migration Scenario 7 (external modem and intelligence in the car) 24 Figure 4: Summary of the Characteristics of Different Network Technologies Based on Evolved Figure 25: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats for Smartphone Integration Connectivity GSM Core Networks 8 Solutions (in which only the HMI runs on the car, everything else is on the phone) 25 Figure 5: LTE Spectrum Landscape 8 Figure 26: Spectrum Availability for Connected Car Services 26 Figure 6: 4G LTE Spectrum Solutions as a % of Global LTE Connections 9 Figure 27: Global Mobile Markets Maturity 27 Figure 7: Ericsson’s Coverage Estimates 10 Figure 28: Automotive Considerations in Managing Cost of Data-Related Services 28 Figure 8: 2G Connections as a % of Regional Connections 10 Figure 29: Celluar Module Core Technology Market Prices (in US$) 29 Figure 9: Network Technologies as a % of Regional Connections 11 Figure 30: Automaker Use Cases for Connectivity 33 Figure 10: Ericsson’s Forecasts for Mobile Network Coverage in Asia 11 Figure 31: Important Role of Enablers in Supporting Business Models for Telematics and Figure 11: The Linear SIM Life Cycle Model of Today 13 Infotainment Services 32

Figure 12: Outcome-Based SIM Life Cycle Model with Repeat Provisioning 13 Figure 32: Types Of Billing Desired by Automakers 35

Figure 13: SIM Provisioning Use Cases 14 Figure 33: Business Models Enabled by Split Billing and Charging Capabilities 36

Figure 14: Remote Provisioned SIM: Elements 15 Figure 34: Primary Telematics and Infotainment Services 37

Figure 15: The Elements Involved in Remote SIM Provisioning 16 Figure 35: Importance of Connectivity Criteria Per Service 38

Figure 16: Basic Automotive Industrial Requirements 17 Figure 36: Primary Importance of Technology Criteria for Telematics and Infotainment Services 39

Figure 17: Differences in the Automotive and Operator Industrial Lifecycles 17 Figure 37: Classification of Telematics and Infotainment Services by Bandwidth and Latency Requirements 40 Figure 18: eCall Standardisation Process 18 Figure 38: Machina Research’s Automotive Forecast for Global M2M Connections 41 Figure 19: Regulatory Framework for eCall 19 Figure 39: Forecast for Global Wireless Traffic Generated by Embedded Mobility by Application 42 Figure 20: Comparing Different Types of Car Connectivity 20 Figure 40: Breadth of Potential Joint Cooperation Areas 45 Figure 21: Different Means to Enable Car Connectivity 21 Figure 41: Principle Means to Improve the Telematics and Infotainment Services through Cross- Figure 22: 22 Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats for Embedded Connectivity Solutions Industry Action 46

Figure 42: Network Technologies as a% of Regional Connections 57

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 4

Introduction

This white paper analyses the complex dynamics It outlines key industry characteristics, This whitepaper is also helpful for other facing the mobile industry and automakers in the available resources for service deployment value-chain actors, playing intermediary and the requirements for these services, roles between mobile operators and development and deployment of telematics and both with regards to the current context automakers in the development of these infotainment systems for passenger vehicles. as well as looking into the future. This services. Finally, this whitepaper is relevant whitepaper also explores the existing to policy and regulatory personnel wishing barriers and opportunities relating to to understand the challenges facing these the wider deployment of telematics and two different industries in the deployment of infotainment services, through improved connected car services. cooperation between automakers and The document covers three key areas: mobile network operators (MNOs). Cellular network technology: The The scope for this whitepaper is based ∙∙fundamental functionality of cellular on the activities of the GSMA Connected networks, the current deployment status Car Forum where global operators and Automakers: of technologies and the outlook for automakers have met since June 2011 to Development of network evolution telematics and cooperate to address mutual challenges. infotainment Participants in the forum include: Connectivity in the automotive industry: services ∙∙An overview of the automotive industry’s Operators: AT&T, Bell Canada, China approach to connected services, the ∙∙Unicom, KDDI, KPN, KT, NTT Docomo, technological requirements for these services Orange, Telecom Italia, Softbank, and the outlook for service development Network Telefonica, Telenor, Telstra, Turkcell, operators: Verizon, Vodafone Identification of areas for cross-industry Connectivity ∙∙cooperation between mobile operators Automakers: Audi, BMW, Chrysler, Fiat, and value-added and automakers that would support ∙∙Ford, GM, Honda, Hyundai, Jaguar Land services the deployment of telematics and Increased utilisation Rover, Mazda, Nissan, Peugeot, Renault, infotainment services. of telematics and Subaru, Toyota, Volvo, VW. infotainment This whitepaper’s underlying premise is that This white paper is aimed at: only through cross-industry collaboration Product planning executives, telematics, between automakers and mobile operators ∙∙innovation and technical experts from will it be possible to remove barriers to automakers the safe delivery of connected services and applications in cars, as increasingly Business development executives, Figure 1: Automaker and Operator Interaction to requested by drivers (see Figure 1). Foster Telematics and Infotainment Services ∙∙embedded mobile specialists, and Source: GSMA technical experts from mobile operators.

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 5

Development challenges for cross-industry connected services

Figure 2 outlines the cooperation challenges between automakers and mobile operators: Historic cooperation difficulties across operators and automakers: Early telematics services often resulted in misunderstandings between MNOs and automakers Addressing the problem statement outlined ∙∙ Regulatory changes (in the EU) have slowed development in recent years. in Figure 2 requires a meeting point between: ∙∙ mobile network technology and operator ∙∙services Market structure: the requirements of the automotive industry Market dominated by relatively few automakers wanting global solutions ∙∙ ∙∙Fragmented market for services and devices the end consumer. ∙∙After-market expected to grow significantly in near future ∙∙ ∙∙Closed ecosystem. Arriving at this meeting point will require ∙∙ both industries to respond to the basic differences in their industrial structures, Service delivery challenges: to overcome the existing service delivery challenges, and finally to meet the Ubiquitous coverage is required for most telematics services Services are often not seamless, given fragmented connectivity approaches continually-evolving market demands. ∙∙ ∙∙Driver distraction concerns impose specific, unique obligations on services for deployment ∙∙Current business models have mostly been unable to directly cover the costs of providing services ∙∙Security & privacy issues have a high profile as deployment of connected cars draws the attention of hackers ∙∙Fear of roaming costs have reduced the utilisation of telematics services (switched off to avoid risks in ∙∙border areas).

Market Evolution: Market demands are evolving, as more data-intensive services are set to be widely-deployed, requiring new ∙∙technologies, business models and cooperation MNOs will need to meet these evolving requirements in order to maximise opportunities and become active ∙∙players in the value chain (beyond connectivity).

Figure 2: Problem Statement between Automakers and Mobile Operators Source: GSMA

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 6

Cellular Networks’Capabilities

This chapter reviews the basic characteristics of mobile In existence for more than 25 years, the great value to the application of mobile of the operator, are designed to identify network technologies and SIM cards, some of the key mobile telecommunications industry technology to other industries. specific events for which charges are levied evolved to deliver a service to customers, against the customer’s account – these are factors affecting their current deployment status, their which was equivalent to that of a fixed line The principles underpinning referred to as ‘billable events’ future deployment and evolution. It seeks to provide telephony service, but without the inherent mobile networks Subscription and device management: restrictions on movement that wires imply. general technical information on key issues facing ∙∙Operators are responsible for the In order to meet this top level service The fundamental principles, which underpin correct management of their customer the mobile industry, as a starting point for the further requirement, two basic principles drove how mobile networks are implemented subscriptions, so that the customer development of connected car services. the design of the mobile telecoms network today, include: receives all services that they are entitled architecture and technology that remain the Redundancy, resilience and availability: to and equally do not receive (and as a bedrock upon which all mobile telecoms ∙∙ The network should be functioning result, is not charged) for services to which services are built upon today: 99.999% of the time they have not subscribed A network should be highly available. Authentication and security: Customer care and customer support: ∙∙The ‘wired’ part of a cellular network ∙∙ The network and a subscriber’s device ∙∙Operators traditionally offer customer is designed to incorporate a degree of establish a “trust relationship”, through support via call centres, but are redundancy and resilience, so that in encryption algorithms and network- increasingly deploying online support as a situation where either equipment or generated “challenges” to devices, to a cheaper, more efficient option for both connectivity between network elements assure the network that the subscription their services and their customers’ devices. fails, the end user experience is unaffected is entitled to service. These principles are implemented through what is popularly The characteristics of cellular network The customer should be certain that their technology ∙∙calls and their data traffic are secure and known as the SIM Card, but which is technically referred to as the Universal will be routed correctly. In this section, each generation of mobile Integrated Circuit Card (UICC) card, and technology is considered, and characterised, These principles mean that a number of through an authentication centre (AuC). based on a number of criteria – coverage, the key service factors that are implicit Furthermore, a number of mechanisms bandwidth, latency and the spectrum in fixed line telecoms services had to be help to ensure that the traffic on the availability. These network criteria are explicitly replicated for mobile technology. network is secure from hacking and important for the following reasons: For example, the uniqueness of the end user protect the radio channel. The most requires authentication and authorisation vulnerable aspect, however, is the third Coverage – services that require services for mobile customers that would not party services or applications being run on ∙∙continuous connectivity need near- have been needed with a wire, since the wire a device connected to the network (given ubiquitous network coverage. However, itself ensured the uniqueness of the end point. the uncertainty of the service source) widespread coverage only comes with time and maturity of the technology, Whilst these basic principles are Billing: so whilst some of the older (but lower fundamental to all that has followed in the ∙∙Billing systems, working closely with the bandwidth) technologies available have mobile industry today, they can also offer authentication and security mechanisms reached nationwide coverage, newer

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 7

technologies (that deliver broadband data What are the key cellular network 2G 3G 4G rates) tend to have more limited reach technologies? Bandwidth – services will need a In mobile telecoms, much is made of the GSM WCDMA WCDMA HSPA 65% of the LTE ∙∙certain amount of bandwidth to work generation of technology implemented by global market successfully and to meet customer a network and supported on devices (see expectations. Older technologies tend to Figure 3). GSM LTE deliver lower bandwidths, whereas newer 2G GSM has broad global operator support technologies deliver higher bandwidths, ∙∙and contributes to 70% of global mobile WCDMA WCDMA HSPA LTE as they generally utilise newer modulation connections (as of Q3 2012). By contrast, 2G techniques and additional features, such CDMA (1x) networks represent about 5% as Multi-carrier Bonding and Multi-Input CDMA2000 1X LTE of the global connections market. Multi-Output (MIMO) radio techniques 3G networks have brought data speed Latency – this is a measure of the length CDMA2000 1X EV-DO LTE ∙∙improvements from legacy 2G GPRS ∙∙of time it takes for traffic to traverse the networks in which download speeds were network. This is a critical factor for ‘real- limited to 140.8 kbps. The introduction CDMA2000 1X EV-DO EV-DO Rev.A/B LTE time’ services, in particular, such as VoIP of WCDMA networks doubled peak and video telephony, where a delay of downlink speeds to 384 kbps, while CDMA2000 1X GSM WCDMA HSPA LTE greater than 250ms can have a significant upgrades to HSPA improved peak impact on the consumer’s perception of the downlink speeds to 14 Mbps. Mobile quality of the service they are experiencing. CDMA2000 1X WCDMA HSPA LTE internet services really began to gain Later in this document, different use cases, momentum with the wider availability based on these criteria, are mapped on to of WCDMA/HSPA networks which now TD-SCDMA LTE different generations of radio technology. account for close to 20% of global mobile This mapping serves to identify suitability, connections (as of Q3 2012). By contrast, WIMAX LTE as well as to highlight gaps between 3G CDMA (EV-DO) represents 4% of requirements and what is achievable with global connections, mostly in Northern current deployments, and hence where America and East Asia. Figure 3: Typical Mobile Technology Migration Scenarios further investment is needed and by whom. Source: Wireless Intelligence The 4G LTE market is still in its infancy with Figures provided in the following section on ∙∙just over 100 commercial LTE networks cellular network technologies are sourced now live, covering around 5% of the global from Wireless Intelligence – the research arm population (in large cities mainly). Wireless of the GSMA. Intelligence expects 4G LTE to represent 10% of global connections by 2017.

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 8

Maximum Why is spectrum so important? The deployment of the latest mobile Cellular Network Downlink Current Coverage ∙∙technology, Long-Term Evolution (LTE), The availability and licensing of spectrum Generation Data Rates Latency (1 Low – 5 High) is dependent upon one of three scenarios: is important in two respects. Firstly, if there The allocation of IMT-extension spectrum GPRS 140.8 kbps >500ms is no spectrum available for the mobile 2G (2500-2600MHz), the re-farming of technology to use, then the technology cannot EDGE 473.6 kbps 150-200ms existing 2G/3G spectrum or the release be deployed in any given market. Secondly, of the ‘digital dividend’ spectrum (700- UMTS 384 kbps 200-250ms the spectrum band in which a technology 3G 800MHz). A high level of spectrum is used affects coverage and the cost of HSPA 14.4 Mbps 50-100ms fragmentation hinders LTE adoption, deployment. If the spectrum allocated for a HSPA+ 42.2 Mbps 20-25ms reducing the economies of scale available technology is at a low frequency, then larger 4G to LTE device makers. Six frequency bands LTE 173 Mbps 5-10ms cells can be deployed, particularly in rural (700/800/1800/2100/2500/2600MHz) areas, resulting in higher coverage levels. dominate LTE deployments to date and Figure 4: Summary of the Characteristics of Different Network Technologies Based on Evolved GSM Spectrum for 2G GSM has been identified there could be 38 different LTE spectrum Core Networks ∙∙and licensed around the world, with a combinations worldwide in LTE network Source: GSMA fairly high degree of alignment in the deployments by 2015.3 spectrum bands used, notably in the The current LTE spectrum landscape is 900MHz and 1800MHz bands. shown in Figures 5 and 6. 3G spectrum bands have been licensed 900-1800 MHz 2600 MHz ∙∙for some time in both developed and 2G band used for GSM networks and IMT extension band to provide capacity for mobile broadband developing countries, notably the considered for re-farming purposes services. Prime band to deploy LTE networks currently being auctioned 2100MHz band for WCDMA/HSPA. 2 However, about 50 developing countries Source: Wireless Intelligence. still do not have any commercial 3G 3 2 Source: Wireless Intelligence, Global LTE network forecasts networks (as of October 2012). and assumptions – one year on, published in December 2011.

700-800 MHz Digital dividend spectrum being freed up from analogue 2100 MHz TV broadcasters to expand mobile broadband coverage to 3G band used for WCDMA networks rural areas and considered for refarming purposes

Figure 5: LTE Spectrum Landscape Source: Wireless Intelligence

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 9

5% Q3 2012 The harmonisation of LTE spectrum bands What does the future hold? technologies will be able to fall back on globally: to legacy networks depending on their The mobile industry is in constant and rapid available coverage. For instance, a consumer would enable radio component suppliers evolution streaming video on an LTE-enabled ∙∙and device manufacturers to realise greater Q4 2016 smartphone will fall back on to legacy HSPA economies of scale Rapid deployment of innovative products and services is essential to the mobile or EDGE networks once he/she moves out would lower the cost of embedding operator community which faces increasing of the LTE coverage zone, thereby ensuring ∙∙connectivity for devices aimed at the global market saturation and intense competition. seamless continuity of service. market (due to the possibility to use fewer Operators aim to continuously deploy better Network evolution is difficult to predict radios), and and more efficient cellular networks, while It is quite difficult to predict how LTE would facilitate national and increasing coverage and mobile internet networks will be deployed in any specific 31% 33% ∙∙international roaming between operators speeds. As described previously, mobile geography given that: (given common radio technology). network technologies have evolved rapidly across the globe, with close to one third of Network evolution is based upon the 36% the global market choosing to upgrade from ∙∙commercial decisions of individual mobile GSM to WCDMA/HSPA to LTE. operators which in turn is dependent on LTE-Advanced represents the next the core characteristics and needs of their technological step in the industry with customer base 38% 57% operators already starting to deploy Spectrum is licensed at a national level this technology – considered to be ∙∙generally for fixed periods (3G licenses, ‘real’ 4G standard by the International for example, have an average lifespan of Telecommunications Union (the ITU). LTE- 10-15 years) and the scope and timeline Advanced will offer downlink bandwidths of spectrum auctions and licenses differ Digital dividend of up to 1 gigabit per second and uplink widely by country Spectrum re-farming speeds of up to 300 Mbps – dependent on IMT-extension the spectrum allocation. The LTE global market is still in its infancy ∙∙and since LTE spectrum is fragmented This rapid technological evolution presents across the globe, there remains a high Figure 6: 4G LTE Spectrum Solutions as a % of Global adjacent industries with something of level of uncertainty surrounding operator LTE Connections a quandary: at what level of mobile Source: Wireless Intelligence network deployments and migrations technology should they engage? from 2G/3G to 4G LTE. However, one characteristic of most mobile technologies – including LTE-Advanced – is the backwards compatibility of networks and devices. This technological requirement ensures that users roaming on newer

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 10

What could 2020 hold for network evolution While 2G GSM/EDGE has by far the greatest in terms of regional coverage? reach, covering more than 85% of the world’s 100% Africa population to date, Wireless Intelligence Asia Leading network equipment supplier expects 2G networks to only account for Americas Ericsson recently estimated that 3G 80% one third of the global connections market Europe WCDMA/HSPA networks currently provide by 2020, as 3G/4G coverage expands. The Oceania coverage to more than half of the world’s analyst firm anticipates that 2G networks population. It expects that figure to jump 60% will account for an average of 45% of to 85% in five years as demand for mobile connections in both Africa and Asia by 2020. internet access increases and smartphones Meanwhile, in Europe and the Americas, become increasingly affordable. Ericsson 40% 3G/4G networks are already widely used further estimates that LTE coverage will and the migration away from 2G networks jump from 5% of the world population to is forecast to accelerate with 2G connections 20% 50% over the same period (see Figure 7). holding on to only 20% of connections in both regions by 2020 (see Figure 8). 100 0% >90% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 >85% 85%

Rural Figure 8: 2G connections as a % of Regional Connections 80 Source: Wireless Intelligence

60 50% >45% Sub- urban 40 % population coverage World population distribution World

20 Urban

5% Metro 0 2011 2017 2011 2017 2011 2017 GSM/EDGE WCDMA/HSPA LTE

Figure 7: Ericsson’s Coverage Estimates Source: Ericsson’s Mobility Report, November 2012

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 11

Notwithstanding this complexity, the LTE coverage is set to reach higher levels (60%) following table (Figure 9) provides a forecast in the region than the global average (50%) by 2G 3G 4G of network technology share of regional 2017. Ericsson expects Asia to account for two 2012 2017 2012 2017 2012 2017 connections over the next five years. thirds of the world’s LTE population coverage in five years (see Figure 10). AFRICA 88.8% 64.9% 11.2% 33.8% - 1.3% By 2017, Wireless Intelligence expects 3G to account for half of connections in the In the US market, as the 4G LTE race Middle Africa 96.1% 89.6% 3.9% 9.9% - 0.6% Americas (including North and South accelerates, mobile operators are already AMERICAS 60.2% 33.9% 36.6% 50.1% 3.3% 16.0% America) and Europe, while 4G will have preparing to shut-down legacy networks. reached close to one sixth of regional With the vast majority (85% in Q2 2012) of Northern America 28.7% 9.8% 62.2% 54.8% 9.9% 35.5% connections on average in both regions. its connections already on 3G, AT&T has Southern America 76.8% 44.8% 23.2% 48.0% - 7.2% Between 2012 and 2017, the share of 3G announced that it will shut down its GSM ASIA 79.3% 54.9% 19.8% 36.8% 0.9% 8.4% networks in Asia is set to rise to almost 37%. network in 2017, allowing it to re-farm spectrum in the 1900MHz band for next Eastern Asia 67.8% 40.3% 29.9% 42.5% 2.3% 17.3% Ericsson estimates that Asia’s 3G WCDMA/ generation services. The operator currently HSPA population coverage is higher than EUROPE 60.0% 32.2% 39.6% 52.3% 0.4% 15.5% covers around 45% of the US population the global average. It forecasts that 90% of Western Europe 50.8% 22.0% 48.8% 56.7% 0.5% 21.3% with LTE and expects to increase that figure the Asian population will be covered by 3G to more than 90% by the end of 2014. OCEANIA 31.6% 16.2% 66.5% 60.3% 1.9% 23.5% WCDMA/HSPA networks by 2017. Similarly, Australasia 23.7% 9.3% 74.2% 64.1% 2.1% 26.6%

100 90% Figure 9: Network Technologies as a % of Regional Connections >90% >85% Source: Wireless Intelligence 80

60% 60 >50%

40 % population coverage 20

1.5% 0 2011 2017 2011 2017 2011 2017 GSM/EDGE WCDMA/HSPA LTE

Figure 10: Ericsson’s Forecasts for Mobile Network Coverage in Asia Source: Ericsson’s Forecasts for Mobile Network Coverage in Asia

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 12

Third-placed Sprint Nextel is implementing requirement that users can connect to voice standardised mechanisms for delivering its ‘Network Vision’ initiative aimed at services when out of 3G/4G coverage zones different QoS levels on their own networks, consolidating its network around 3G-CDMA and/or when travelling to another country. and especially while roaming, due to and 4G-LTE, while winding down its iDEN Roaming represents a substantial source of their complexity and cost, and a lack of push-to-talk network by Q2 2013, allowing it revenue for operators which 2G networks sufficient customer demand. Although to free up spectrum in the valuable 800MHz will help to preserve for some time. In not yet quantified, this demand is likely band. Tier 2 operator, MetroPCS, hopes to addition, mobile operators are likely to to grow due to requirements from various eventually move its entire subscriber base to continue supporting M2M services running industry sectors (especially the automotive, LTE, and plans to start refarming spectrum on 2G legacy networks. health and utilities/smart cities sectors). that it is currently using for CDMA traffic Service awareness and Quality of Service – This increased demand would create the by the middle of 2013. Meanwhile, there has what is possible on mobile networks? incentive for mobile operators to offer a been speculation that market-leader Verizon small number (e.g. 3-5) of service classes Wireless – which already covers around 80% The growth of M2M services brings by investing in tiered QoS capabilities, or of the US population with LTE – could soon opportunities for mobile operators to provide to take advantage of the QoS capabilities start repurposing CDMA spectrum bands for connectivity and value-added services to a that will become available to them through LTE. However, Verizon executives have been diverse range of customers and applications. 3GPP Release 7 (Policy & Charging Control) quoted as saying that the older networks Some mobile connected services may be network deployments, which are likely to will remain as they are for “a very, very long very demanding (e.g. cash-in-transit vehicle be introduced by many operators either time” – possibly in order to support emerging security systems incorporating the capability to manage VoIP traffic or to support the M2M (machine-to-machine) markets. to transmit video pictures and urgent alarm introduction of LTE networks. The Release signals), while others may be very tolerant 7 QoS control approach for mobile data In other regions, such as Europe, 2G network (e.g. periodic reporting of utility meter services is centred around the QoS Class shut-downs are not on operators’ agendas readings). Mobile network operators will be Identifier (QCI), a parameter that gives since 3G/4G still represented less than half of best placed to take advantage of the growing network operators full control over the QoS Europe’s mobile connections in 2012 (40%) – M2M opportunity, if they can: provided for their offered services for each compared with 73% in the US. Nevertheless, of their subscriber groups. the GSMA expects LTE operators in the provide tiered quality of service (QoS) region to refarm their existing 2G spectrum ∙∙levels to meet service provider and end- Extending the geographic availability of for 3G/4G services. At present, a quarter of user requirements in the areas of speed, service classes to the roaming environment mobile operators in Europe have launched reliability and availability would be a natural next step for those LTE networks, while Wireless Intelligence measure delivered service levels roaming partners that are capable of expects four out of five operators in the ∙∙ supporting this functionality. Many region to have launched LTE by 2017. ensure seamless service when devices or mobile connected services will be offered ∙∙services are roaming internationally, and in many cases, devices More broadly, despite the rapid migration may be permanently roaming. Although towards 3G/4G, legacy 2G networks remain charge based on QoS level. ∙∙ the Release 7 QoS control approach is fully essential to preserve the current global To date, mobile network operators have supported when roaming, and although roaming ecosystem. It is a basic roaming not widely or commercially deployed wholesale charging based on QoS can be

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 13

supported by the existing billing (TAP3) in use today will be augmented with new, Remote management of the SIM PRE-ISSUANCE standard with minimal effort, roaming complementary and standardised form Today’s current generation of SIM cards are partners would need to agree inter-operator factors. These include: generally managed as physical entities: they tariffs (IOTs) per service class, increasing the MANUFACTURE SELECT smaller, pluggable form factors to allow are physically shipped from the operator to complexity of existing roaming relationships. & ASSEMBLY MNO ∙∙more flexibility in mobile device form the customer, they are manually plugged DISTRIBUtion In summary, service classes are not yet factors, and into mobile devices and they are manually available from mobile networks, but once swapped and updated (see Figure 11). next generation embedded (or ‘surface the technical enablers are in place and the ∙∙mount’) form factors5 that can be soldered The use of the current generation of SIM market has evolved to show significant into mobile devices and be remotely cards has, thus far, provided many benefits associated demand, mobile operators are managed by the network operator. to the customer, including great flexibility. likely to start offering service classes and However, the current mechanisms used to tiered service levels. These new form factors will complement supply and manage SIM cards will need to What does the SIM offer? existing SIM card form factors, rather than evolve to open up new markets, in particular replacing them; traditional SIM-supported for services in which mobile connectivity The SIM card has been at the heart of devices will continue to work on operator is embedded in a wide range of devices (a the mobile industry for more than 20 networks. The new SIM form factors will concept known as “embedded mobile”). years, helping to make the GSM family of be based on already-standardised SIM POST-ISSUANCE technologies the most secure, ubiquitous and form factors and will remain as a ‘physical The standardised ‘remote management’ successful communications system in the entity’ – a physical implementation provides technologies available today do not facilitate SONA world. The SIM card will remain at the heart enhanced security. As such, these new SIM the remote provisioning or switching of PER LISE of the system for the foreseeable future. form factors will continue to provide the operator credentials on the SIM card.

essential trust and security relationships But the GSMA, along with a group of E The SIM card is the secure custodian of the G leading mobile operators, is driving the N U

necessary to protect the data provided by all A S

subscriber’s identity. It ensures that trust is U H

O development and standardisation of a A C

parties in the value chain. N

/ G

maintained between the customer and the

E

T

next generation of SIM card technologies M

C

mobile telecommunications network. E

L E

SIM card technology is evolving to meet S the demands of future mobile services OF END N and applications. This evolution includes SUBSCRIPTIO MANUFACTURE SIM END SELECT MNO PERSONALISE DISTRIBUTION USUAGE features to enable new use cases, in which SIM ACTIVATION OF LIFE mobile connectivity is embedded into a wide range of devices, machines and vehicles. Figure 12: Outcome-Based Evolution of SIM form factors SIM Life Cycle Model with PRE-ISSUANCE POST-ISSUANCE Repeat Provisioning 4 Source: GSMA The form factor of the SIM card is evolving Defined in ETSI 102 221. to support new business requirements. The Figure 11: The Linear SIM Life Cycle Model of Today 5 removable SIM card form factors4 commonly Source: GSMA Defined in ETSI TS 102 671.

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 14

to facilitate the remote management of the SIM Provisioning Use Cases Sample scenario B: The operator’s contractual operator credentials within the SIM. The relationship is with the consumer Provisioning An M2M service provider sets-up The GSMA has defined five primary use of multiple subscriptions for a number of connected goal of this initiative is to enable remote cases for the remote-provisioning of next The vehicle owner is responsible M2M 1 M2M devices to start telecommunication SIM management, helping drive global generation SIMs (see Figure 13): ∙∙for sourcing mobile connectivity for subscriptions services with a network operator momentum for new, innovative and cost- embedded mobile services effective connected devices that will enhance These SIM provisioning use cases are daily life, while retaining the security and applicable to the automotive sector. Here are Pre-sale – The vehicle manufacturer Provision flexibility of current SIM card form factors. two examples of automotive scenarios: ∙∙ensures a valid provisioning profile is of first A subscriber purchases a new type of present within the embedded SIM subscription Remote management will enable operators Scenario A: The operator’s contractual connected device from a device vendor/ with a new to securely deliver, update or swap SIM relationship is with the vehicle manufacturer At point of sale, the vehicle owner receives 2 distribution channel connected credentials ‘over the air’ in devices equipped ∙∙a SIM and the subscription manager The vehicle manufacturer manages device with the next generation of embedded SIMs. identities from the vehicle dealer ∙∙embedded mobile connectivity It will enable SIM cards to be remotely »» The owner provides their chosen mobile provisioned, or swapped out, without any Pre-sale – The vehicle manufacturer operator with the SIM and subscription A subscriber changes the subscription for need to have physical access to the mobile ∙∙ensures a valid provisioning profile is manager identities Subscription a device to stop services with the current device. This means that next generation present within the embedded SIM change 3 mobile operator and start services with a SIMs in embedded devices (which by design »» The mobile operator remotely new mobile operator Pre-sale – The vehicle manufacturer supplies cannot be removed) can be securely updated provisions the embedded SIM and ∙∙embedded SIM identity and over-the-air with operator credentials right up to and, provides service even, after the point of sale. This approach credentials to its subscription manager »» will also allow the secure re-provisioning partners directly or via SIM vendor (see the The vehicle dealer may facilitate this A subscriber sells his device and stops the next section for additional details) process. Stop of alternative operators during a device’s subscription for services from the current subscription lifespan (see Figure 12). 4 mobile operator Post sale – The vehicle manufacturer The vehicle owner may change the serving ∙∙provides the embedded SIM and ∙∙mobile operator or cancel connectivity subscription manager identities to its during the lifetime of the vehicle (subject chosen mobile operator for vehicle testing to contract) and/or live service Transfer A subscriber transfers subscription The vehicle may be re-sold and the new subscription 5 between devices The mobile operator remotely provisions ∙∙owner may obtain service with another ∙∙the embedded SIM and provides service mobile operator. The embedded SIM ecosystem enables the Figure 13: SIM Provisioning Use Cases ∙∙ Source: GSMA vehicle manufacturer to bulk-switch serving mobile operators for vehicles post-sale.

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 15

SIM architecture and roles Benefits of remotely-provisioned SIM management The architecture for the remotely provisioned SIM is presented in the following diagram The benefits of a standardised mechanism (Figure 14), which highlights the new role of for remote SIM management include: SIM the subscription manager. Enables delivery of the operator SIM to Without a standardised subscription manager ∙∙occur independently of the embedded architecture, each mobile operator would mobile device’s distribution channel have to use their own proprietary technical Enables the management of the SIM solutions for the remote personalisation ∙∙during the connected product’s life cycle, of embedded SIMs. Difficulties would which for some M2M products, such as then arise when trying to switch a device 12345678.75 vehicles, could be 10-15 years which contains an embedded SIM between two operators who had implemented Protects network operator security and fundamentally different technical solutions. ∙∙customer privacy Track and tracer Smart meter Trucks and logistics Vehicles Security camera Vending machine Developing a standardised subscription Re-uses as many elements as possible manager architecture based upon common ∙∙from current implementations requirements and with common shared elements would resolve such issues whilst at ∙∙Provides scale that enables cost the same time reducing cost and complexity. minimisation. A standardised solution will also drive the The technical standard contains sufficient flexibility to facilitate numerous business necessary economies of scale to ensure the Subscription Manager successful deployment of the embedded SIM models: It is likely that business models will solution to the market. be developed through discussions between network operators and their customers. The interfaces and processes needed to make an embedded SIM work are virtually identical to current SIM personalisation processes and interfaces used by mobile MNO network operators. For many MNOs these interfaces are currently with SIM vendors and proprietary to each operator/group. Figure 14: Remote Provisioned SIM: Elements Source: GSMA The subscription manager is responsible for the secure processes via which an MNO is able to personalise an embedded SIM ‘over the air’ (see Figure 15).

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 16

Status The GSMA, and its partners, plan to show The Connected Car Forum enables such advanced ‘proof of concepts’ during 2013, discussions to take place, where automakers The GSMA, along with a group of leading with the first commercial deployments and mobile operators can identify and mobile operators, has already finalised the likely to follow in the near future. collaborate on joint priorities. market requirements for the development of standardised embedded SIMs and for Next steps for mobile operators the remote management of SIMs. This has paved the way for the implementation of Mobile operators are seeking to better a worldwide-embedded SIM standard, understand the automotive industry’s reducing fragmentation and driving scale requirements with respect to: for ‘connected’ devices across various How in-vehicle services, and their industries, including automotive, consumer ∙∙connectivity requirements, are evolving electronics, healthcare and utilities. How to enable all appropriate connectivity ∙∙options for services. Functionally-identical to a traditional SIM card ∙∙At manufacture may have a ‘provisioning profile‘ assigned with secret keys that allows the Greater understanding of these two aspects ∙∙associated subscription manager to manage ‘operational profiles’ on the eUICC will facilitate the development of tailored Next Generation To be standardised by ETSI Technical Committee Smart Card Project and considered in 3GPP standards Embedded SIM approaches and services to support telematics ∙∙The technical standard can accommodate both an initial declaration of the MNO in the eUICC, as well and infotainment, in line with the underlying as the selection of a new MNO later. The implementation will depend upon the commercial agreement ∙∙ needs of automakers. Moreover, cross- between the operators and their customers industry collaboration will be required to overcome some existing ecosystem barriers. Mobile operators are particularly interested Manages the embedded SIM by in fostering this joint collaboration in areas Generating SIM profiles in real-time Subscription such as: Manager ∙∙ Management and execution of MNO policy ∙∙ Secure routing of profiles to embedded SIM Operational improvements, such as how to ∙∙ ∙∙optimise data usage, common requirements for services and improving service delivery Uses subscription manager to manage profiles for different types of connectivity MNO ∙∙Maximum re-use of existing provisioning interfaces and processes ∙∙ New means to foster telematics and ∙∙infotainment business development, such Figure 15: The Elements Involved in Remote SIM Provisioning as through joint application programming Source: GSMA interfaces (APIs), apps development and location-based services.

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 17

Automakers’ Connectivity Requirements

This chapter considers automakers’ requirements The general automotive General Automotive Automaker Requirements for for the development of connected car services. industry context Industry Requirements Connectivity Principles

It covers: Automakers have very different industrial requirements from mobile network Regulatory compliance The general industry context operators (see Figure 17). These differences help to explain some of the underlying Importance of increasing capabilities Business models for remote provisioning of SIM challenges in cooperation. Durability of automotive solutions Embedded modules’ characteristics and cost One of the primary differences is the very Desired over-the-air updates systems services forecasts different lifecycles for the development of Need to limit hardware updates Different connectivity methods for providing automotive products (≈24-36 months) and Seamless connectivity approaches which can adapt to network evolutions the lifetime of the products (≈7 to 10 years), Interoperability of systems, services over time in-vehicle services compared with the mobile operator lifecycle and across: platforms, applications Performance factors for cellular technology for the development of services (≈average of 6 to 12 months) and network development for the delivery of specific services. (1 to 3 years, with a desired 7 year minimum network operational lifecycle). Figure 16: Basic Automotive Industrial Requirements This chapter also discusses the inherent trade- Source: GSMA The lifecycle requirements of the automotive offs involved in the different requirements and industry mean it is necessary to: connectivity options. Finally, it explores the future Create durable solutions, which: evolution of infotainment, telematics and other ∙∙ »» AUTOMOTIVE LIFECYCLE connected car services. require few hardware updates (given the difficulty of providing these updates Product Planning 2-3yrs across large number of dispersed users Lifetime 7-10yrs with embedded solutions) »» support over-the-air software updates Detailedplanning 1yr Long termplanning 3yrs Operationallifetime 7yrs Network technology planning for systems and services, in order to Network product releases 1yr ensure that the device always functions appropriately for the duration of the MOBILE NETWORK OPERATOR REFERENCE LIFECYCLES

network topology 0 years 5 years 10 years Create interoperable solutions, which can ∙∙move across brands and models, as well Figure 17: Differences in the Automotive and Operator Industrial Lifecycles Source: GSMA as provide economies of scale wherever possible (even across automakers)

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 18

Manage multiple connectivity approaches Examples of upcoming connectivity Pan-European eCall (112+ in-band modem) ∙∙ regulations impacting the automotive sector in a flexible manner to accommodate potential changes in user services during eCall CEN: PAN-European eCall operating requirements the lifecycle of the vehicle (changes of owners, countries of operation, etc.) and The European Commission is in the process enable improved management of the of introducing a pan-European in-vehicle overall base for telematics monitoring emergency service (eCall)6 regulation in CEN: High level application protocols vehicle data (such as remote diagnostics). Europe, which will require: Additional important contextual elements All new cars manufactured or distributed include: ∙∙in the EU from 2015 to have an eCall in-vehicle system (with a network access Specific regulatory aspects affecting device and UICC) CEN: ∙∙the connectivity solution (such as the MSD (data) European eCall and roaming requirements All Member States to indicate the most – see next section) ∙∙appropriate public safety answering point Car in incident 1st Level PSAP CL1 to route eCalls and to draw up detailed Underlying business models for the Location infomation E-112 rules for public mobile network operators. Voice (112) Minimum set of vehicle data ∙∙automotive sector. All mobile network operators in Europe to ∙∙handle an eCall like any other call to the single European emergency number 112 (by 31 December 2014) 3GPP: 3GPP: 3GPP: 3GPP: eCall idle mode In-band modem eCall flag In-band modem This regulation will result in wide-scale usage of connected vehicles in Europe.

Private third party emergency calls, which Standards approved or under final approval vote are proprietary value-add services (e.g., Volvo OnCall, GM OnStar, PSA, Fiat, Figure 18: eCall Standardisation Process BMW ConnectedDrive), are likely to Source: GSMA continue to exist. Many of the standards for eCall are either approved or under final approval (see Figure 18). 6 eCall Definition from the Pan-European eCall Implementation Guidelines Draft v3.0 (2012, Task Force GUID): In case of a serious accident, the vehicle systems will automatically initiate a 112 call to the most appropriate Public Safety Answering Point (PSAP), which will establish a voice contact between the PSAP and the occupants of the vehicle, while, as soon as the connection is established, sending a minimum set of data (MSD) related to the accident including accurate location, time and direction of the vehicle to the PSAP. eCall can also be triggered manually.

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 19

MOBILE OPERATORS The European Commission Recommendation The IVS can be configured and upgraded SIMRAV’s objectives are: on eCall (8 September 2011) has outlined the ∙∙remotely Reduce vehicle theft and lower vehicle A European Commission Recommendation different requirements and responsibilities (8 September 2011) requires operators: The IVS can be pre-installed (terminal ∙∙insurance rates for mobile operators, Member States and • to implement the eCall discriminatory “flag” in all networks ∙∙installed on the automotive assembly automakers (see Figure 19). Provide consumers with the opportunity • to route eCalls to the Public Safety Answering Points line) or retrofitted (the terminal is ∙∙to opt-in during vehicle lifetime for anti- • to handle eCalls as any other 112/E112 emergency call. ERA-GLONASS (Russia) installed at service centres or at dealer theft services from any service provider. centres after vehicle assembled at Russia has also begun implementing an automotive assembly line) The approach for SIMRAV is: emergency call service, which builds MEMBER STATES upon elements of the European eCall The terminal shall record acceleration Mandatory incorporation of anti-theft system, extending the approach to include ∙∙profile before and during the crash. The ∙∙equipment by auto and motorcycle A European Commission Recommendation additional features such as GLONASS GNSS crash profile is transmitted as a separate manufacturers into all new vehicles (8 September 2011) requires Member States: positioning (Global Navigation Satellite block of data (commercial, passenger, motorcycle) • To define emergency call infrastructure to receive the eCalls System) and a back-up data transmission destined for the Brazilian market. SIMRAV • To communicate the most appropriate public safety answering Support for a standardised I/O port and mechanism using SMS. will, therefore, be incorporated into 5 – 7 point to route eCalls ∙∙standardised communication protocol to million new vehicle sales • to report to the Commission on the implementation status by 31 The main characteristics of ERA-GLONASS, connect additional sensors. March 2012. which different from those of eCall, are: Anti-theft service subscription offered by Common specifications for Public Safety Answering Point The schedule for deployment is: ∙∙certified service providers (i.e by “TIVs”) (PSAPs) within the framework of the ITS Directive are set to be GLONASS GNSS must be supported, Back-end ERA-GLONASS systems are issued by the end of 2012, which will ensure emergency centres and ∙∙but combined GNSS receivers (e.g. Based upon an MVNO approach in which ∙∙scheduled to be operational by Q1 2014 rescue services are equipped for processing the data transmitted by GLONASS/GPS) are acceptable ∙∙Denatran (Ministry of Cities, Department the eCall. The first deployments, scheduled for National Transit)/Serpro (The Federal Data transfer mechanisms include in-band ∙∙October 2014, will be targeting the Service for Processing of Data) (under an ∙∙modem (primary mechanism), SMS (back- transportation of dangerous cargo and outsourcing arrangement): up communication channel) and GPRS collective passenger transportation. »» Manage an home location register with AUTOMAKERS Echo cancellation and noise reduction default profiles for inactivated service All new passenger vehicles (e.g. automobiles ∙∙requirements have been defined subscriptions Vehicle Type Approval Legislation is set to be issued and light vehicles) will be required to have by the end of 2012 to ensure that all new cars in 2015 ERA-GLONASS calls for vehicles to be the ERA-GLONASS in-vehicle system (IVS) »» Conduct an over-the-air switchover will have to be equipped with eCall devices complying ∙∙able to initiate a test session and be able installed from January 2015. between the pre-loaded Serpro profile with agreed European standards (already approved by to transmit the test results to the back-end SIMRAV (Brazil) and operator profile when service CEN and ETSI). systems. Test mode is intended for testing the subscription is active. functionality of the in-vehicle system (IVS). Brazil has been developing legislation since The operation is identical to eCall mode, 2006/07 to support the SIMRAV anti-theft but voice calls are forwarded to a dedicated system. A regulation coming into effect by Figure 19: Regulatory Framework for eCall call centre, and the mode identifier field in 31st January 2013, will give automakers 12 Source: GSMA emergency data set is set to “test” months to fit the system to all new vehicles.

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 20

EU Roaming Regulation extensive research and regulation. In 2011, Embedded Tethered Integrated the World Health Organization (WHO)7 A new European Roaming Regulation, Modem Embedded Brought-in Brought-in produced a report on this topic concluding: adopted in June 2012, introduces the following measures (which are driven by ‘It is now evident that if you are using a mobile UICC (“SIM”) Embedded Embedded/Brought-in Brought-in the consumer handset market): phone while driving you are approximately four Intelligence/Applications Embedded Embedded Brought-in times more likely to be involved in a crash than a The introduction of “structural changes” driver who is not using a phone. This risk appears User Interface Vehicle HMI Vehicle HMI Projection of phone interface on vehicle display ∙∙or “structural measures”, focused on to be similar for both hand-held and hands-free OR stimulating competition by making it phones, because it is the cognitive distraction Remains directly on phone easier for alternative operators (e.g. that is an issue, not only the physical distraction mobile virtual network operators) to enter associated with holding the phone. Text messaging the roaming market and offer consumers Figure 20: Comparing Different Types of Car Connectivity appears to have an even more severe impact on The GSMA’s position10 recommends against alternative roaming tariffs Source: GSMA driving behaviour and crash risk.’ activities that involve drivers taking their Potential decoupling (“unbundling”) of eyes off the road. Both operators and ∙∙roaming services from domestic services At an international level, Article 8.6 of the automakers have been active in efforts to to allow for a separate sale of roaming Vienna Convention on Road Traffic, 1968, promote compliance with national laws and services (from 2014) was amended in 2006 to include a ban on responsible mobile phone use by drivers. the use of hand-held mobile phones while There are many examples of educational ∙∙Potential wholesale roaming access: driving and this is reflected in many national campaigns, often aimed at particular driver All mobile network operators would be road rules. In addition, some countries have segments such as inexperienced drivers. obliged to meet “all reasonable requests for imposed extra restrictions on certain groups wholesale roaming access” (from July 2012) of drivers, generally young/inexperienced Some phone features, such as voice- or commercial drivers. operated dialling and other speech-based ∙∙Reductions in retail and wholesale price applications, can minimise the physical caps and the extension of these caps to In December 2011, the US National distractions associated with mobile phone retail data roaming services Transportation Safety Board8 called for a use. Technical solutions have also been Review of the implementation in 2015. nationwide ban on non-emergency ‘driver developed, such as software applications ∙∙ use of portable electronic devices (PEDs) that prevent phone use or disable certain The exact implications of the new roaming while operating a motor vehicle’ unless functions (for example, texting) when the regulation on automotive services are not the devices are ‘designed to support the vehicle is in motion. 7 evident at this point. However, the pressure http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/publications/road_traffic/ driving task’. However not all countries are distracted_driving/en/index.html to reduce roaming costs in the EU is clear. Research into driver distraction shows that convinced of the effectiveness of bans and a 8 driver’s attention and therefore driver’s Considerations for driver distraction 2012 report for the Swedish National Road http://www.ntsb.gov/news/2011/111213.html 9 performance depends on a concept of and Transport Research Institute (VTI) 9 Driver distraction is an important risk recommended against a general ban on phone “workload” i.e. the amount of information http://www.vti.se/ factor for accidents and the role of mobile use, preferring instead driver education, one has to process in order to make 10 decisions. If the workload is too low – http://www.gsma.com/publicpolicy/mobile-and-health/mobile-devices/ phones in this regard has been the subject of information and technical solutions. mobile-phones-and-driving/

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 21

for example, when driving on an empty In February 2012, the US National Highway the car to cellular technology. The primary road, attention wanders affecting driving Traffic Safety Administration11 (NHTSA) options are summarised in Figure 21. performance, on the other hand, during issued voluntary guidelines to encourage bad weather, or on a busy or unknown automakers to limit the distraction risk for The utilisation of these different intersection, the workload is too high. in-vehicle electronic devices installed at time connectivity options differs across the Reliable workload models that are based of manufacture that require visual or manual various in-car services: on processing car data, as well as maps and operation by drivers. These guidelines could Integrated solutions tend to be used traffic information, can be used as an input be examined by the Connected Car Forum to ∙∙for higher bandwidth and personalised to intelligently regulate flow of information, determine their relevance in other markets. apps (such as on-demand music and HMI layout and other features making it social networking) safer and more rewarding to use connected What are the connectivity options devices and services. Greater cooperation for automakers? Tethered solutions typically focus on between automakers and the mobile ∙∙connected navigation and internet-based A number of options exist to connect a communications industry could ensure infotainment features more effective solutions and potentially the vehicle, including: Embedded solutions focus on vehicle- development of a ‘driver mode’ analogous Embedded: Both the connectivity (modem ∙∙centric, high-reliability and high- to ‘airplane mode’. ∙∙and UICC) and intelligence is built availability apps (such as eCall and directly into the vehicle breakdown call, or bCall, services). Embedded solutions covering a broad Connectivity Options Tethered: Connectivity is provided ∙∙through external modems (via wired, range of services have generally been Bluetooth or WiFi connections and/or limited to premium vehicles, with some Tethered Connectivity (intelligence in the car) Integrated UICCs), while the intelligence remains notable exceptions: embedded in the vehicle »» Volume brand manufacturers, such Embedded modem External modem and SIM (external SIM) Integrated: Connectivity is based as BMW, General Motors, Peugeot, ∙∙upon integration between the vehicle Renault, and Roewe, offer services and the owner’s handset, in which all based on embedded solutions in entry User’s phone (as a modem) communication modules, UICC, and models and up All Embedded intelligence remains strictly on the phone. BT SAP SIM slot USB key »» Where region-specific regulations exist The human machine interface (HMI) BT BT BT on phone except HMI) for embedded solutions (such as eCall USB DUN/ Wifi Phone (everything User’s generally remains in the vehicle (but PAN SPP HFP in Europe). not always). Each of these different connectivity options Figure 21: Different Means to Enable Car Connectivity: relies upon different mechanisms for linking 11 http://www.distraction.gov/ Source: SBD 2011

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 22

These three connectivity solutions are not Seamless user experience With existing solutions, changing operators mutually exclusive and can be used in ∙∙ Does not require user set-up ∙∙during the lifetime of the vehicle involves tandem as appropriate for the proposed ∙∙ Good communications performance, using single antenna prohibitive costs and logistics difficulties applications. Moreover, these solutions ∙∙ Robust and reliable Significant hardware costs up-front are likely to continue to co-exist in future. ∙∙ With an appropriate mounting, suitable for both ∙∙ Limited technology evolution possible, without A tandem approach might be used, for ∙∙safety and security-related services (both crash- ∙∙physical intervention example, when the technology employed resistent and attack-resistent) Currently difficult to split bills so that communication for the embedded system is likely to be Avoidance of incompatability, interoperability or ∙∙costs are divided between different services and inappropriate for newer-generation or ∙∙tethering issues different beneficiaries higher bandwidth services. Automaker can specify the internal modem and Difficult to agree upon roaming context in ∙∙antenna according to the needs of the services to be ∙∙which users do not suffer bill-shock related to The use of different connectivity solutions offered “hidden” services also reflects automakers’ desire to The manufacturer can guarantee that the service and differentiate between the: ∙∙associated HMI is appropriate for use in-vehicle (and control the service’s availability) Costs for services that they have a direct ∙∙interest in (such as remote diagnostics) Strengths Weaknesses ∙∙Costs for large bandwidth, frequent use Embedded Solutions services (such as infotainment). OPPORTUNITIES THREATS If it was possible to differentiate between these services through split billing, Regulatory changes focused on increasing safety Regional network evolution uncertain, so there is automakers would be likely to dramatically ∙∙and security are resulting in mandatory regional ∙∙a risk that hardware investments will be outdated reduce the employment of tethered solutions. deployments: Opportunity for additional services during the vehicle’s lifetime to be offered on the selected technology Depending on the billing model, the automaker and/ Embedded solutions The growing use of web-based apps may ∙∙or the operator’s relationship with the final client ∙∙reduce the technological performance criteria may not be evident All of the connectivity (module and SIM) for certain services, allowing embedded and the intelligence are built into the car. solutions to provide competitive solutions Figure 22 shows the strengths, weaknesses, Increased operator provision of diversified opportunities and threats related to ∙∙billing options, as well as more direct control embedded solutions. over the provisioning process is likely to improve the user experience and reliability Certain services, such as security and safety- Operators could develop specific offers related services, are particularly appropriate ∙∙for connected car services for embedded solutions. These services need to be highly reliable, “always-on” and seamless for the end-user (for example, a primary risk Figure 22: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats for Embedded of tethered solutions is the driver may forget to Connectivity Solutions bring and connect his phone). Source: GSMA

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 23

Tethered solutions As Figure 24 shows, tethered solutions, using Robust communication using vehicle antenna and modem, Limited cost savings for vehicle hardware compared an external modem, have the benefit that: ∙∙specificed according to automaker requirements ∙∙with fully embedded solution Tethered solutions rely on the intelligence Ongoing communication charges are directly As with embedded solutions, limited technology of the application running in the car, while less costly in-vehicle hardware is required ∙∙connected to the end-user’s SIM ∙∙evolution possible, without physical intervention the user’s SIM, phone or USB key is used to ∙∙ Simpler deployment as no new operator For BT SAP solutions: Protocol is not fully supported, enable connectivity. There are multiple ways the external modem is more likely to be negotiations for roaming and billing required even in new phones (some operators may block BT SAP ∙∙ ∙∙ ∙∙ to enable tethering, such as: up-to-date (given the higher replacement For BT SAP solutions: Little impact on the for security reasons) rate of handsets). ∙∙battery life of the user’s phone (BT SAP places For BT SAP solutions: Relies on the user’s phone being in vehicle An embedded modem, which employs the device into the power-save mode) ∙∙and activated, so it is not a reliable solution (in general) and, in ∙∙the user’s existing SIM (via the Bluetooth This approach, however, requires that For SIM Slot solutions: Reliable connection particular, for safety and security related services SAP profile12 or a SIM SLOT) solely for the necessary protocols are universal to SIM (not relying on wireless link) SIM Slot: Requires drivers/users to have an additional ∙∙ connectivity across devices. Furthermore, it remains Appropriateness of in-car services and (availability of ∙∙SIM for their vehicle inappropriate for safety and security ∙∙the services) is easy to control through connectivity Not appropriate for security and safety applications An external modem, which utilises the services, as no guarantee exists that the solutions when the intelligence remains on the vehicle ∙∙(robustness and reliability cannot be guaranteed) ∙∙user’s phone (via USB cables, Bluetooth driver will use this solution consistently. profiles (DUN/PAN, SPP/HFP) or WiFi) Strengths Weaknesses or USB modem, tethering for both the Tethered Solutions: connectivity and the modem.13 Embedded Modem Figure 23 shows the strengths, weaknesses, 12 (BT SAP or SIM Slot) opportunities and threats related to BT SAP (SIM Access Profile) ~ A Bluetooth profile that makes OPPORTUNITIES THREATS a temporary copy of the SIM credentials from one device to tethered solutions, in which the modem and another (e.g. copy the SIM from a handset to an embedded modem in a car). Operators could develop special telematics & SIM Slot: Risk of theft, or owner non-payment intelligence is embedded in the vehicle. ∙∙infotainment offers for dedicated car services ∙∙Regional network evolution uncertain, so there is a risk 13 A tethered approach using an embedded BT DUN (Dial-Up Networking) ~ A Bluetooth profile that allows that hardware investments will be outdated during the ∙∙ modem is often employed for user-based a connected device to make a data connection via the phone. vehicle lifetime services (such as infotainment), as it enables BT PAN (Personal Area Networking) ~ A Bluetooth profile that allows one or more connected devices to share the phone’s the user to directly manage and pay the costs connection to the internet. of the used services. It remains an unreliable BT SPP (Serial Port Profile) ~ A solution that uses compatible Figure 23: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats for Tethered Connectivity Solutions solution for safety and security solutions, apps (on the phone and in the car) to bypass tethering restrictions. Data is downloaded from the Internet to the app on (embedded modem with intelligence in the car) given the need for the user to activate their Source: GSMA the phone, from where it is side-loaded to the car using SPP. phone or insert their SIM. BT HFP (Hands Free Profile)~ This profile is used to enable a voice call that the car can then use to transfer very small amounts Figure 24 shows the strengths, weaknesses, of data using in-band modem technology (data-over-voice). opportunities and threats related to tethered USB cable ~ A wired solution that connects the phone to a USB connection in the car. solutions, which combine an external modem WiFi ~ The car is able to connect to the internet over WiFi if the with intelligence embedded in the vehicle. phone is put into a portable hotspot mode.

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 24

Up-front hardware costs in vehicle are reduced Protocols are not seamless for tethering (user experience can ∙∙Communication costs are directly tied to user ∙∙be sacrificed) ∙∙Allows user’s connectivity solutions to follow their handset device Appropriate profiles for different protocols are not universal across devices. ∙∙evolution (high replacement rate); keeping pace with network ∙∙Furthermore, software in telematics control unit must be developed to technology upgrades (avoiding obsolescence and, therefore, likely to interface with different types of mobiles phones provide faster performance as available) The communications module is not likely to be automotive grade, Direct links (USB cables, or sticks) also avoid the difficulties of having ∙∙reducing reliability and performance (particularly critical for safety ∙∙to use wireless protocols and security) When USB modems are deployed, data and voice (on the user Antenna performance likely to be worse than embedded solutions ∙∙phone) can be used in parallel and is likely to result in higher data ∙∙Associated errors are likely to be linked to automaker, even when transfer rates ∙∙related to the mobile device User’s mobile phone can be charged whilst in use Tethered solutions can be incompatible with SMS-based services ∙∙In an emergency where a second radio is not available, the USB ∙∙Operators are not able to create specific offers for connected car ∙∙modem could provide failover and support to the car systems ∙∙services run through phones Appropriateness of in-car services and (availability of the services) is Not appropriate for security and safety applications (robustness and ∙∙easy to control through connectivity solutions when the intelligence ∙∙reliability cannot be guaranteed) remains on the vehicle Strengths Weaknesses Tethered: External Modem OPPORTUNITIES THREATS

Additional functionality, such as apps and maps Threats ∙∙etc., can be embedded into a USB modem, thereby ∙∙ Durability of the connection interface could be a problem for long addressing download and usability issues ∙∙term solutions Operators could develop specific solutions (such as Some operators discourage, charge extra or prevent the use of ∙∙dedicated USB connections) for connected car services ∙∙mobile phones for tethering purposes (due to concerns of abuse regarding all-inclusive data plans) Differences in charges between voice and data components of user ∙∙plans can cause bill shock for vehicle services

Figure 24: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats for Tethered Connectivity Solutions (external modem and intelligence in the car) Source: GSMA

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 25

Integrated connectivity solutions traffic information and external navigation. and applications in the car, and this Moreover, the technologies are likely to is where they face the choice between The phone and the vehicle form an integrated remain up-to-date and there is a direct embedded and brought-in connectivity. As solution with the communications module, allocation of service costs to the end user. described elsewhere in this white paper, SIM, and intelligence all provided by the However, it can be a risky solution given the the management of data costs can be a phone. This solution generally relies on the limited control the automakers have on the significant barrier to using an embedded HMI being provided by the vehicle (although applications and services used. It is also an SIM for features with unpredictable data it sometimes remains on the phone). unreliable solution for safety and security requirements and/or usage. Concern about Figure 25 shows the strengths, weaknesses, solutions, given the need for the user to this issue has resulted in increased interest opportunities and threats related to activate their phone. in tethered solutions. integrated connectivity solutions. Dealing with the trade-offs of the different Automakers around the world have already The smartphone integration approach is connectivity choices experimented with various tethered solutions: particularly appropriate for user-based In practice, most automakers are likely to take Audi supports BT SAP services, such as infotainment or access to a hybrid approach to connectivity rather than ∙∙ BMW and Mercedes use BT DUN and/ a one-size-fits-all solution. This means that ∙∙or PAN Connectivity costs are completely tied to driver A seamless service is not guaranteed, as different they may, for example, adopt an embedded (more likey to understand data plan implications) profiles and protocols are not universally available ∙∙ ∙∙ solution on their high-end models, a tethered Toyota and Ford use BT SPP and HFP Allows for car connectivity to take advantage of the Uncertainty of user experience approach on their entry-level vehicles, whilst ∙∙ ∙∙most recent device modules (i.e. the driver’s latest ∙∙Not appropriate for security and safety applications respectively in the USA offering an integrated smartphone product handset) and relevant network technology evolutions ∙∙Not appropriate for vehicle-based systems given the Honda has adopted a USB dongle in Japan. Allows for diversified infotainment options tailored to ∙∙lack of guaranteed consistency in usage across all their products. ∙∙ ∙∙the driver Driver distraction issues are difficult to manage or The different approaches can be used in These solutions are characterised by the pros Virtually no hardware start-up costs for services ∙∙influence when external devices are used in the vehicle and cons outlined in Figures 23 and 24, but ∙∙ a complementary fashion in the same vehicles. A number of vehicle manufacturers there is some agreement across automakers launched smartphone integration that the following two tethered solutions Strengths Weaknesses will be the most important going forward: Smartphone solutions in 2012, with the main focus Integration being on providing the driver with access Bluetooth DUN/PAN: Bluetooth has a to internet radio, streaming music and ∙∙ OPPORTUNITIES THREATS high penetration across most mobile phone social networking apps running on their market segments. Many experts recommend smartphones. This trend will continue into As cloud-based services becomes a primary receptacle Regulations on driver distraction could limit the ability the use of PAN, but automakers will the future, as manufacturers take advantage ∙∙for personalised infotainment content, integration can ∙∙to use phones for in-motion services continue to support DUN to ensure that provide an appropriate means to access this content of the computing power and personalisation highest levels of compatibility capabilities inherent in a solution that uses the customer’s smartphone. WiFi: Most smartphones are now equipped ∙∙with WiFi, and many consumers are already Figure 25: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats for Smartphone Integration In parallel, however, most automakers very familiar with the process for connecting Connectivity Solutions (in which only the HMI runs on the car, everything else is on the phone) will continue to keep some intelligence their portable devices to a WiFi network. Source: GSMA

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 26

The prioritisation of these two technologies for tethering is an important first step by Fast growers Mobile Digital Pioneers Connected (China, Central America, Eastern Europe, Discoverers the automakers, but they now face the Connected Network (Australasia, East Asia, Players Middle East, Russia, Southern Africa, (Nigeria, challenge of optimising network usability Car Services Requirements Nordics, North America) (Western Europe) Southern America, South-Eastern Asia) Other Africa, Southern Asia) for their customers. The obstacles to successful tethering Infotainment: 4G/LTE 4G and LTE deployed and services Spectrum likely to be widely 4G spectrum identified for roll out, 4G services expected Higher Bandwidth currently available available in 2-3 years probably beyond 2016 beyond 2020 To be successful, tethering for in-vehicle connectivity requires seamless service Infotainment: 3G Spectrum available and likely to remain available for next 10 years Inconsistent roll out of 3G delivery across multiple devices. The Lower Bandwidth likely for the next 5 years necessary profiles and protocols, therefore, need to be available on all devices. Navigation 3G To address this issue the Connected Car Telematics – 2G Re-farming of 2G spectrum a possibility in these markets over the 2G likely to remain available for the next Forum is assessing the recommendation Vehicle-Centric next 5 year time span. This would mean that 4G services would 10 years of a single set of profiles and protocols use spectrum currently allocated to 2G; with 2G chipsets no longer for tethering to reduce complexity and Telematics – Other 2G supported. harmonise a standard approach to tethering to remove the existing obstacles. Figure 26: Spectrum Availability for Connected Car Services A further potential obstacle is the policies Source: GSMA of some mobile operators to contractually prohibit tethering (whereas others permit the functionality as long as the customer pays an additional fee to enable tethering). These restrictions are generally a legacy of the all-you-can-eat data tariffs that mobile operators used to kick-start the mass adoption of smartphones. The emergence of tiered-pricing plans provides an opportunity for mobile operators to evaluate the best approach to ensure an equitable, appropriate policy towards tethering. Automakers are eager to address these issues so that tethering can become a more effective option for increasing car connectivity.

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 27

Network evolution considerations for connected car services

To make it easier to understand how mobile network evolution relates to the different 140 types of connected car services, the GSMA Spectrum Programme has defined four geographic segments of the global mobile 120 East Asia market: Digital Pioneers, Connected Players, Fast Growers and Discoverers. The table Australasia North America below (figure 26) shows the predicted 100 spectrum coverage for the different service types and technology network requirements. 80 Nordics The GSMA has segmented the four categories of the global mobile market by maturity and Western Europe technology adoption level. The level of 3G+ 60 penetration (see Figure 27) shows that the

3G+ penetration (%) 3G+ penetration Middle East Russia number of 3G+ connected devices in some Southern America regions (the Digital Pioneers) has already 40 exceeded the population. These regions have South-Eastern Asia Eastern Europe also deployed 4G-LTE. South Africa 20 Southern Asia China Nigeria Other Africa Central America 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

DISCOVERERS (emerging markets) Smartphone penetration (%) Importance of non-voice/ >45% messaging revenues FAST GROWERS (developing markets) (% total revenue) >20%

CONNECTED PLAYERS (nature markets)

DIGITAL PIONEERS (advance markets) 14 Population split is based on 65 sample countries, fixed at 2011 levels. 3G penetration: 2012 Q2 forecast based on 2012 Q1 actuals and Figure 27: Global Mobile Markets Maturity14 historic figures: Wireless Intelligence. % non-voice/messaging ARPUs – based on Ovum data 2011. 2010 are actuals, 2011 and beyond Source: GSMA is forecast (includes all mobile broadband and VAS service revenues). Smartphone penetration – based on Strategy Analytics data from 2011. 2010 are actuals, 2011 onwards are forecasted.

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 28

Automakers’ business models for and, in particular, on reducing the cost of user pays directly for the more data intensive telematics equipping their cars with telematics. These and difficult-to-predict services). cost reduction activities cover all parts of Quality of However, there is a risk that these The vast majority of automakers have the automakers’ value chain, but the two connectivity alternative solutions will result in customer implemented a Business-to-Consumer (B2C) that have the most direct impact on mobile required dissatisfaction with ease-of-use and device business model for telematics. This means operators are the: compatibility. Many automakers have, that they charge the customer for the costs of management of data costs therefore, expressed a strong interest in Level of the providing the in-car system and the services. Owner of ∙∙ initiatives that will bring down the cost appropriate In some cases, this requires the customer to careful selection of the network access the service of data (such as permanent roaming) to a charge for make a single up-front payment when they ∙∙technology. ? costs level where services with a moderate data the services purchase their car, but in other cases, this The management of connectivity-related requirement (such as remote diagnostics, involves the vehicle manufacturer charging service costs traffic information and connected an annual subscription fee after a brief “trial” navigation) can be provided through an Ability to usage period (typically three to 12 months). Many existing automakers’ business models embedded SIM with a single upfront charge the owner for However, experience across many markets place a strong emphasis on ensuring that data payment for the lifetime of the car. their services suggests that most customers are not willing costs remain as low as possible, so that they to pay a subscription for telematics. The can provide customers with lifetime access to Choosing the right automotive main exception to this appears to be the the majority of services. This approach raises module? U.S., where an annual subscription is the multiple issues and questions: Figure 28: Automotive Considerations in One of the hotly-debated topics in the Managing Cost of Data-Related Services dominant business model. How much data connectivity is needed automotive industry regards the choice Source: GSMA ∙∙for services? Automakers are also exploring alternative of the appropriate connectivity module business models involving subsidies, Who is the appropriate owner of the to support telematics and infotainment advertising and additional Business-to- ∙∙service costs? services. This choice dictates the Business (B2B) services. Furthermore, some performance characteristics possible (with What is the appropriate pricing for these automakers are taking into consideration the regards to those available in the relevant ∙∙services (the perceived value of the service internal benefits derived from the services local mobile network) as well as the level versus willingness to pay)? (such as increased customer loyalty) when that the services are “future-proofed” to making a business case for connected How to ensure that the appropriate handle network evolutions. car services. However, such factors are ∙∙charges are billed for services. either still under investigation or are only Automakers need to weigh investment costs contributing a small amount to the overall Due to the difficulty in meeting the challenges (given the current limited revenues generated business case. of developing a robust business model, many by embedded telematics and infotainment automakers are turning towards tethering services) against the potentially much Many automakers are now focusing on the and smartphone integration to enable greater costs (and difficulties) of retrofitting single upfront payment business model connectivity in the car (i.e. ensuring that the a new solution on a vehicle post-production.

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 29

Retrofitting solutions are necessary when new Criteria affecting automotive-grade Over-the-air updating, with management technologies are required to support a service module costs ∙∙features to control quality of update Automotive or, for example, in the case of a network Module Technology 2011 2013 2015 Key aspects, which influence the cost of Flexible building blocks and generational switch-off. ∙∙ automotive-grade modules (as compared with customisation options 2G 30 25 20 Moreover, automakers must balance the consumer electronics modules), are listed: Variants for specific regions. need to support: Quality and reliability, compliant with the ∙∙ Lifecycle management 2G/3G requirements of the automotive industry 65 59 55 basic services and connectivity that all (WCDMA or CDMA EVDO) ∙∙operators provide against Product availability: Meeting extended Processes according to common ∙∙product development lifecycles of the national, regional or global ‘best-in-class’ ∙∙automotive standards 16 automotive industry LTE/3G/2G N/A 120-150 80 ∙∙connectivity, to enable the consumer to Defined product quality (delivery and have the best experience possible if they Technology transition: Upgrading to ∙∙field performance) choose to participate (based on network ∙∙next generation technology, variants Figure 29: Celluar Module Core Technology Market Prices choice and/or subscription plan). Automotive-compliant manufacturing with different technologies (in US$)15 ∙∙ Source: GSMA Furthermore, the automotive industry tends Advanced test reports and traceability Component sourcing (according to to have very specific requirements with ∙∙ ∙∙automotive requirements) respect to product quality, support and ∙∙2 year or longer vehicle warranty delivery processes. Additionally, there is a (compared to 3 to 12 months for Ease of software updates consumer electronics). ∙∙ need for special automotive functionalities, Product support over the lifecycle of as well as a high level of robustness and Robustness & extended performance ∙∙a vehicle. durability. The availability of the relevant embedded module needs to correspond Extended temperature range Expected price evolutions for modules with the appropriate stage in the automotive ∙∙ Extended shock resistance lifecycle, which has an impact on the ∙∙ Based upon the additional requirements module component sourcing and the service Automotive-compliant mounting to ensure successful implementation processes. These additional aspects are ∙∙technology of embedded cellular connectivity in reflected in a higher average selling price for the automotive industry, some general 15 Radio frequency connectors matching automotive modules than is typical in the indications with regards to the evolution of These are indicative prices for pilot/sample quantities, as ∙∙automotive requirements. volume projects using LTE are not expected in 2013. general consumer electronics market. module costs is provided in Figure 29. 16 Enhanced product offering Factors impacting the evolution of automotive– Figure 29 shows the average price for a basic automotive grade modules platform, which has additional requirements over normal Product enhancements (higher grade industrial M2M modules, based upon estimates made at ∙∙components and special mechanics) the end of 2011. The pricing does not cover extensions and The following factors will play a role in the customizations of the modules, which are typically required to Automotive-specific features cost evolution of modules: meet the requirements of individual projects, such as: special ∙∙ features or functionalities; technology extensions; specific quality agreements; specific warranty.

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 30

2G module costs will continue to decline for embedded mobile services; in fact, the The decision-tree for selecting a technology ∙∙marginally over time, but no major overall costs include: is generally based upon: reductions are expected on existing Communications module Services to be provided cost levels ∙∙ ∙∙ Design and integration Regional technologies available 3G module costs are expected to continue ∙∙ ∙∙ ∙∙to decrease over time, but the level of Distribution and installation The match between the services and the reductions are tapering out ∙∙ ∙∙most appropriate regional technologies Systems and platforms (including eventual switch-off timelines) LTE automotive-grade modules are ∙∙ ∙∙ Network traffic costs expected to decrease substantially from ∙∙ Target total costs of ownership of the their initial price offering, following a Field tests. ∙∙solution (including maintenance) depreciation curve similar to that of 3G ∙∙ (average market price erosion generally Analysys Mason’s report The Total Cost Of ∙∙Required duration of solutions (i.e. long life above 10% a year with peaks of more Ownership For Embedded Mobile Devices, (11 duration and capability to able to provide than 20%).17 The speed of this decrease November 2010, Reference 17974-455) found the components for 10 years minimum) that the module and associated network will depend upon the economies of scale Sustainability of the form factors from extensive demand for the modules traffic represent only: ∙∙ Power consumption performance (dependent upon widespread deployment 17% of the total cost of ownership for ∙∙ of LTE networks) ∙∙embedded 3G devices, and Size of the solution (in many cases, the ∙∙device must be very small). The actual cost of modules depends on 9% of the total cost of ownership for ∙∙order sizes with discounts for volume ∙∙embedded 2G devices. Clearly, automakers should make the appropriate selection from the beginning Generally, automotive modules include Analysys Mason found that these to avoid: ∙∙backwards-compatible generational percentages are even lower for transport technology – therefore, the first LTE applications, with communications modules Retrofit costs (generally more than €100) modules will generally include 2G and 3G. accounting for an average of 5% of the total ∙∙ Difficulty in upgrading modules (requires When regional coverage becomes more cost, given the important role of design and ∙∙a visit to the mechanic) even (and so fewer mobile technology provisioning in this market.18 generations are required), the LTE modules Choosing an appropriate connectivity module Perceived instability of service solutions. will be less expensive due to a reduction in ∙∙ the inclusion of some air interfaces. Clearly, automakers have to account for 17 Assessing the costs of modules a large number of factors when selecting Analysys Mason, Berg Insight, ABI “Mobile Connectivity: the most appropriate communications Comms Module Price Development”. It is important to recognise that automotive technology to include in vehicles directly 18 connectivity module costs are only one Analysys Mason’s Report on The Total Cost of Ownership for (embedded) and what/if to tether. Embedded Mobile Devices, (11 November 2010, Reference element of the total costs of ownership 17974-455), page 19.

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 31

Why is the module choice so important? automakers are therefore faced with the Subscription management – manage in difficult task of deciding between; ∙∙real time the subscription to the mobile As mentioned previously, great pressure network, activating or deactivating the exists to reduce costs for telematics and a lower cost 2G-only device, with the risk SIM to manage it through the lifecycle of infotainment services. Furthermore, ∙∙that it may not remain operable for the the M2M device automakers seek a stable mono-mode lifetime of the car, and hardware solution for most markets, which Monitoring – an M2M platform has the a higher cost 2G/3G device, which offers could be guaranteed for 15 years. Given the ∙∙possibility to monitor key parameters ∙∙a greater likelihood of functioning at the very different cellular network deployment and communication traffic of a group end of this period. statuses and evolution paths possible, this of devices, to configure them, and to objective, while understandable, is difficult Some automakers will adopt the lowest remotely send AT commands to achieve. possible cost approach to satisfying the Upgrading application software and eCall legislation, and hence they will fit cars European eCall: Hardware quandary ∙∙firmware – upgrading one or multiple with a 2G device from 2015. This leads to devices in the field through one click on Automakers selling cars in Europe face a unanswered questions about what fall-out the M2M platform web portal simplifies specific network access technology issue will exist if an eCall system does not work in the management of devices and reduces when planning their response to the proposed the future because its network technology is operating costs, removing the need of any legislation that will require them to fit eCall to no longer available. physical action on the device in the field all cars that are “Type Approved” from 2015. How over-the-air capabilities via an M2M cloud when an upgrade is required On the basis of the technology requirements platform benefit modules of the regulation, automakers could simply Accelerate app development – an select 2G as the preferred access technology As the M2M market grows, so does the ∙∙M2M cloud platform can offer a range for an eCall-only system. maturity and intelligence of M2M cloud of readily-available elements which accelerate the application development The majority of cars that are sold in 2015, platforms, enabling intelligent devices, process, allowing products to come however, are likely to still be on the road back-end systems and cloud platforms to to the market faster and reducing in 2025, and many even through to 2030 seamlessly integrate. development costs. and beyond. Therefore, the critical question A M2M cloud platform could bring about for automakers is which network access a global solution for managing connected What is an automotive grade module? technologies will still be operational in all devices across different networks and The automotive environment requires fail- European countries in the period between interfaces. This is attractive to the end-user- safe components that can withstand multiple 2025 and 2030? facing brand (typically the automaker) as it conditions, such as extreme temperature enables the performance of the device on the European mobile operators are not in a ranges and high physical stress. In particular, network to be visible and troubleshooting position to provide guarantees about the they need to comply with: future availability of 2G in Europe for the processes to be performed. The automotive temperature grade reasons outlined in the section Network A M2M cloud platform could provide the ∙∙(-40/+85°C minimum for full operation, evolution is difficult to predict. European following management services: with respect of ETSI minimum values)

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 32

The PPAP (Production Part Approval How tethering can support embedded The key underlying enablers for automotive ∙∙Process) – The purpose of the PPAP is to connectivity choices connectivity ensure that suppliers of components comply One way for automakers to manage the data The automotive use cases for connectivity with the design specification and can run transmission costs is to transfer some, or all, highlight the pressing need to identify consistently without affecting the customer of the responsibility for paying these costs business models for sustainable services, line and improving the quality systems to the customer. Currently, the most popular which can respond to the connectivity 100% compliant with automotive solution is to use a Bluetooth tethering demands of users and the desired service ∙∙environmental quality requirements. connection to the customer’s mobile phone, levels of automakers. but this introduces ease-of-use issues and Three factors play a key role in enabling In practice, automotive grade connectivity concerns regarding device compatibility these business models: modules also need to: (as outlined above). Enabling The ability to manage data roaming costs Withstand the automotive environment The automotive use cases for billing and ∙∙without performance degradation for the ∙∙ The availability of enabling billing and payment average life of a vehicle estimated at 15 provisioning and connectivity systems ∙∙payment systems years/150,000 miles (as defined by automakers) The ability to provide remote-provisioned The module should be able to withstand The use cases for automotive connectivity ∙∙SIMs. ∙∙common causes of field failures to reduce embrace a variety of situations, with primary the need for expensive repairs distinctions being made according to: Bridge the gap between the automotive who pays the connectivity contract and Business ∙∙lifecycle (years) and handset lifecycle ∙∙ models for (months) because redesigning components the frequency of modifications to the sustainable ∙∙connectivity use case. is not an option services Be produced using stringent manufacturing The primary automaker use cases, as Ability to Managing data ∙∙processes and change control. outlined by automakers in the Connected provide remote roaming costs Car Forum, are presented in Figure 30. provisioned (incl. permanent Notwithstanding these requirements, it may SIMs roaming cases) be more cost-effective and quicker to create a These use cases represent the current and variant of an industrial product rather than emerging needs of automakers. Further use creating a connectivity module specifically cases are likely to evolve, for example, as car for the automotive environment from the sharing becomes more widespread. Cases Figure 31: Important Role of Enablers in Supporting Business ground-up. in which the owner and the driver of a car are not related are likely to become more Models for Telematics and Infotainment Services Source: GSMA important in the future, further underlining the importance of managing who pays for the telematics services.

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 33

Use Case Characteristics

Owner of Expected Connectivity Connectivity Frequency Process Use Case Description Contract of Use Case Vehicle testing Test and development of telematics services Allows automaker to easily test different SIMs in the same car All possibilities Varied and the same telematics control unit (TCU)

Vehicle Production Initial vehicle production where automaker pays for telematics SIM is provisioned to the mobile operator according to the Automaker service contract Once vehicle destination

Service activation: Vehicle sale where services are paid by vehicle owner SIM is provisioned to the customer’s mobile operator when Customer contract Once consumer the vehicle is sold

Connected Car Service Operation: Automaker connectivity Vehicle moves permanently to new region where automaker pays for telematics Automaker can provision SIM to their local mobile operator Automaker service contract Infrequent contractual changes: Small scale

Automaker connectivity In order to maximise performance characteristics (i.e. signal strength, cost, application Automaker can provision SIM to their local mobile operator Automaker service contract Infrequent contractual changes: Frequent package, etc.), connectivity is switched across operators domestically

Traveller roaming: Car is travelling temporarily Automaker can provision SIM to their local mobile operator Automaker service contract Every hour/ from country A to country B. Subscription is changed from local MNO in country A to day/week local MNO in country B

Customer Service Changes Vehicle owner changes MNO Customer can provision SIM to their new mobile operator Customer contract/ automaker Every year (where owner pays for telematics services) service contract

Car is sold to a new owner New owner can provision SIM to their mobile operator Customer Contract/ Every year (where owner pays for telematics services) automaker service contract

Car is driven by a new driver (where owner pays for telematics services); New driver can provision SIM to their mobile operator Customer contract/ automaker Every hour/ This use case is particularly interesting for car-sharing programmes. service contract day/week

Figure 30: Automaker Use Cases for Connectivity Source: GSMA

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 34

Use Case Characteristics

Owner of Expected Connectivity Connectivity Frequency Process Use Case Description Contract of Use Case Service cancellation Service subscription is stopped Automaker or customer can cancel subscription All possibilities Infrequent

Hardware changes Operational problem: Telematics control unit (TCU) fails SIM in new TCU can be provisioned to same MNO as used in All possibilities Once the failed TCU

Refitting of telematics control unit SIM in the refitted TCU can be provisioned to a relevant MNO All possibilities Once as required

Revision of large scale Automaker changes MNO Automaker can provision the SIM to a new MNO Automaker service contract Very infrequent connectivity strategy (e.g. for commercial reasons)

Automaker changes business model Automaker can change business model or offer free period by Automaker service contract Infrequent (i.e. who pays for connectivity) provisioning SIM from its MNO to/from the customer's MNO. Transfer subscription

Revision of large scale MNO merger/acquisition: MNO A merges with MNO B. Automaker is currently with MNO Automaker can provision SIM to new mobile operator Automaker service contract Very infrequent connectivity strategy B. Automaker changes subscription from MNO B to preferred MNO X since involvement of MNO A is not seen as beneficial

Initial MNO goes out of business where automaker pays for telematics Automaker can provision SIM to new MNO Automaker service contract Very infrequent

Figure 30: Automaker Use Cases for Connectivity Source: GSMA

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 35

Roaming Billing and payment systems

Roaming is an essential element of any Billing and payment systems are a automotive application, reflecting the: critical element for all automotive service deployments today and for the future, Distinctive connectivity arrangements in especially as different business models ∙∙the automotive market in which country- are tested. Within the Connected Car specific SIMs are generally not used. Forum, five primary types of billing have Vehicle manufacturers typically source been mooted by automakers to unlock the their SIMs from a single mobile operator potential for telematics and infotainment for a given region. In some cases, these business models (see Figure 32). SIMs are registered on the home location register (the HLR) of an operator with an actual radio network, but in other cases they may be sourced from a mobile virtual Service-based billing: providing billing based on a service rather than one bill for a month’s usage network operator (MVNO) or third party service provider that does not have its own radio network. This means that the SIMs are either permanently, or almost Split billing: being able to allocate cost against a service or a location or a time of day permanently, roaming, regardless of where the car was produced or sold Viability of services in a moving vehicle ∙∙(which by definition could cross network End user billing: Being able to bill the end user or interact with other payment methods operator boundaries). As a result, the management of data roaming costs is vitally important to the automakers’ business case. Retail billing: Be able to add other items to the bill

Service control: Being able to manage the availability of the service

Figure 32: Types of Billing Desired by Automakers Source: GSMA

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 36

Split billing and service billing are clearly Automakers require that split services enable: Example use cases and scenarios critical enablers for infotainment services data for vehicle-related (and potentially Use Case – Sponsored connectivity and in-car applications, with regards to: ∙∙connected navigation) services to be billed Scenarios: providing the flexibility to split services to them directly, through an embedded ∙∙across different beneficiaries SIM that they fund for a defined period or Rewards scenario: a customer receives the life of the car ∙∙an amount of data for their connected responding to end users’ preferred car service if they use the automaker’s ∙∙payment approach (such as pay-as-you-go other services, including infotainment, servicing center. The cost of the data is versus subscription; consolidated billing ∙∙to be billed directly to the customer, covered in the servicing price (could be for multiple services versus separate bills). preferably through the same embedded internally automaker billed or directly to SIM (either by linking it to the customer’s the dealership/service centre) personal mobile operator contract or through the provider of the embedded Sponsored internet navigation to specific SIM having a direct billing relationship ∙∙IP addresses: Automaker sponsors with the customer). internet services for their online user DATA & SERVICE Sponsored 3rd party provider manual (to avoid printing manual). PLANS FOR THE END USER connectivity (transference of risk and revenue opportunities) Sponsored services that are billed to a third ∙∙party provider that is sponsoring the cost Use Case – Third party infotainment content IP address Infotainment provider of connectivity for the use of their services (e.g. user manual) Scenarios: Bundled services (such as download of audio books). The automaker offers audio/video Tellingly, this missing functionality is Reward points Sponsorship revenue ∙∙content from third party suppliers (the (e.g. servicing car) considered so important by automakers only audio and video download service Service upgrade that some have relied on tethering as a accessible in the car) and the connectivity workaround for service billing. Reverse billing Revenue share costs are covered in the single cost for Data bundle Split billing and charging has also been downloading the data (multiple connected devices) recognised by the GSMA Connected Car A third party is providing a radio Sponsored adverting Content manager Forum as an essential enabler for new ∙∙streaming service in the car and the business models (see Figure 33). cost of the service also includes the connectivity cost.

Figure 33: Business Models Enabled by Split Billing and Charging Capabilities Remotely-provisioned SIM Source: GSMA The next generation embedded SIM, explained in the previous chapter, would help to address a number of the requirements outlined in the automotive connectivity use cases, including remote and late-stage

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 37

provisioning for vehicles depending upon Be a workaround for these enabler The deployment of these automotive where the vehicles will be operational. ∙∙requirements (as opposed to being a services is uneven across vehicle types, dedicated solution) brands and regions: The primary open areas related to connectivity use cases & enablers Result in an undesirable end-user Telematics services are offered across ∙∙experience (as well as depending largely on ∙∙entry-level vehicles, mass-market vehicles, Many of the automaker-defined use cases the nature and conditions of the contracts and premium vehicles. They tend to for connectivity are likely to be robustly- established between the operators and be considered essential services for supported by the reprogrammable SIM automakers on a bilateral level). premium vehicles. functionalities under development. This Infotainment is a current differentiator for functionality, however, has not been Requirements related to ∙∙higher-end vehicles, focusing on: designed to address three potential automotive use cases: specific services »» radio real-time content Frequent changes in connectivity The next section of this white paper analyses »» multimedia, internet services in a ∙∙between operators, in order to maximise the primary categories of telematics (12 pervasive manner. performance characteristics (i.e. signal service types) and infotainment (4 service strength, cost, application package, etc.) types) – see Figure 34. These services already exist in various deployment forms across the Infotainment Telematics ∙∙Traveller roaming: A car is travelling globe, with telematics being more widely temporarily from country A to country deployed than infotainment. Radio – music, news: Navigation / journey times / augmented reality / B. The subscription is changed from local ∙∙On-demand real time ∙∙points of interest / traffic info mobile operator in country A to a local The general status of telematics and content Travel and traffic assistance (assisted traffic regulation, access control/ operator in country B infotainment services today ∙∙parking zone management/ eco-driving) Video: On-demand Traffic sign warning Figure 34 outlines the range of telematics Frequent changes of operators for certain ∙∙and real-time content ∙∙Remote control of vehicle environment / car features / restricted drivers ∙∙ and infotainment services that exist today. services attached to each new driver: Multimedia, internet ∙∙Remote diagnostics Each new driver pays for their portion of These services are evolving, in particular ∙∙services and more ∙∙Breakdown services (bCall) infotainment services (while the owner with the development of internet-based in- ∙∙General eCall (not EU specification) pays for telematics services). This use car services and the explosion of apps in the Other infotainment ∙∙Insurance / stolen vehicle tracking applications case is particularly interesting for car consumer electronics sector. ∙∙ ∙∙Fleet management (passenger gaming) sharing programmes. ∙∙eFreight/ tracking and tracing ∙∙Payment/ticketing / metering / tolling Importantly, these use cases clearly reflect ∙∙Electric vehicle use cases: Battery charge monitoring / control / specific automotive requirements related to ∙∙navigation to recharge points underlying roaming and billing issues. The use of the next generation embedded SIM to address these three use cases would likely: Figure 34: Primary Telematics and Infotainment Services Source: GSMA

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 38

Specific service characteristics Service Characteristics Transmission Type The characteristics of the telematics and infotainment services show wide variation Max. Service Voice in relation to: Continuity Potential Delivery and Bandwidth Services Type of Service of Demand Frequency Responsiveness Voice Data Data Range The nature of the services: On-demand, ∙∙push and pull Radio: music, news: On-demand Irregular Several times per day real-time X >64kbps on-demand real time content Continuity of the demand for the service: ∙∙Regular, cyclical and irregular Video: On-demand and real-time content On-demand Irregular Several times per day real-time X >1Mbps ∙∙Maximum potential frequency: Constantly Multimedia, internet services and more. On-demand Irregular Several times per day near real-time X >1Mbps throughout the day, several times per day, Navigation / journey times / augmented On-demand Irregular Several times per day near real-time X X <1Mbit/usage daily, occasionally reality points of interest Service delivery responsiveness: Real- Travel and traffic assistance (assisted On-demand Irregular Several times per day near real-time X X <1Mbit/usage ∙∙time; near real-time; non real-time traffic regulation, access control / Transmission type: The information which parking zone management/eco-driving) ∙∙is being exchanged: Voice, data, and voice Remote control of vehicle environment/ On-demand Cyclical Several times per day near real-time X X <1Mbit/usage and data. This information can vary greatly car features on the exact configuration of the service Remote diagnostics Pull Irregular Weekly/ Daily non real-time X <1Mbit/usage Bandwidth range: the specific Breakdown services (bCall) On-Demand/pull Irregular Occasionally near real-time X <1Mbit/usage ∙∙bandwidth ranges which the service would need to support. General eCall (not EU specification) On-Demand Irregular Occasionally real-time X <1Mbit/usage Figure 35 shows the characteristics of the Insurance/stolen vehicle tracking Pull Regular Several times per hour near real-time X <1Mbit/usage different telematics and infotainment services. Fleet management Pull Regular Constantly, daily near real-time X <1Mbit/usage eFreight/ tracking and tracing Pull Regular Constantly, daily near real-time X <1Mbit/usage Payment/ticketing On-demand Irregular Several times per day near real-time X <1Mbit/usage Electrical vehicle use cases: Pull Regular Constantly, daily near real-time X <1Mbit/usage 19 Traffic sign recognition is a telematics service that connects an Battery charge monitoring/ control in-car camera to an off-board sign recognition system. Details 19 of the recognised sign are then transmitted back to the car in Traffic sign warning Pull Irregular Several times per day near-real-time X <1Mbit/usage real time to be presented to the driver. This is an evolution of the existing (non-telematics) on-board sign recognition systems Figure 35: Importance of Connectivity Criteria Per Service that recognise a limited set of signs. The use of the greater Source: GSMA computing power of an off-board server could allow any sign in any country to be recognised.

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 39

What are automaker technology safety-critical applications electronically Legend: ECC = Essential constraining criteria; VI = Very important; I= Important requirements for specific services? controlled in vehicles

Six criteria summarise the primary High reliability: The dependability of High technological factors, which determine ∙∙the network, which is a dynamic function Wide Band- Low High High High the appropriateness of different cellular of network availability, the resilience Coverage width Latency Security Reliability Privacy network technologies for the deployment of network to survive failure, service Radio – music, news: On-demand real time content I ECC I I of each of the different telematics and implementation (i.e. the way in which an infotainment services: individual service is built on top of the base Video: On-demand and real-time content ECC I I network), and the technology of the different Wide coverage: Particularly important radio interfaces. Although important for all ∙∙for all automotive services, since services by definition, it is mission-critical Multimedia, Internet services and more. ECC I I by definition vehicles move across for safety and security applications geographically; this movement is Navigation / journey times / augmented reality points of interest ECC I dictated by the road network rather than High privacy: The privacy of user Travel and traffic assistance (assisted traffic regulation, access population density (one of the primary ∙∙information is generally important for ECC control / parking zone management / eco-driving) factors governing network deployment) all mobile services; however, automotive services have a particular sensitivity, given Remote control of vehicle environment/ car features ECC I VI High bandwidth: Of primary importance their emphasis on tracking the movement ∙∙for infotainment of individual vehicles, as well as Remote diagnostics ECC I I Latency tolerance: Level of service potentially handling sensitive information ∙∙sensitivity to delays in network (including breakdown information, Breakdown services (bCall) ECC VI VI I responsiveness for data, voice and payment data, etc.). SMS transmission General eCall (not EU specification) ECC VI I VI I Figure 36 outlines the primary importance Service delivery responsiveness: of the different technology criteria (as Insurance / stolen vehicle tracking ECC VI I I ∙∙The speed of service considering the described above) for the individual services. cumulative delay in the end-to-end service This importance is characterised as either: Fleet management ECC I I execution (including third party service Essential constraining criteria (ECC): This elements). This criterion is important for eFreight / tracking and tracing ECC I I ∙∙criterion determines the suitability of the some automotive applications, including cellular network technology to support primary safety-critical applications and Payment / ticketing ECC VI I VI the individual service (i.e. the criterion vehicle-to-infrastructure communication which is most restrictive in the selection of Electrical vehicle use cases: Battery charge monitoring / control ECC I High security: The network security for appropriate network technology) ECC ∙∙the transmitted information. Security is Traffic sign warning VI VI I Very important (VI) particularly important to automakers, ∙∙ given the necessity to avoid any risk to Important (I). ∙∙ Figure 36: Primary Importance of Technology Criteria for Telematics and Infotainment Services Source: GSMA

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 40

Mapping the different technology criteria to How to choose the right technology, based individual services illustrates: upon regional coverage Requiring HSPA Requiring Edge All network (3.5G) or higher (2.5G) or higher technologies are The primary role of coverage for all The other primary selection criterion, for appropriate ∙∙telematics services deploying telematics and infotainment Radio – music, news: services, is network coverage in a specific On-demand real time content ∙∙The primary role of bandwidth for all region of the world. This criterion is infotainment services. fundamental for all automotive services Video: On-demand and Selecting the right technology for services, and is the essential constraining criteria real-time content based upon bandwidth for most telematics services. The challenge, Navigation / All other journey times telematics services however, for the automotive sector is Multimedia, internet Despite the variety of services and types of multifaceted, given: services and more cellular technologies, a clear classification exists with regards to the requirements for Multinational vehicle production Augmented reality points bandwidth and latency: ∙∙(resulting in the necessity to find a of interest common technological denominator Most of today’s telematics services can across different territories and often Other in-vehicle ∙∙ services enabled by cloud work appropriately with any 2G-network operator networks) technology or higher computing The extended duration required of the ∙∙Infotainment services require more ∙∙adopted solution (including the time from advanced network generations, i.e. HSPA the hardware development decision to the Figure 37: Classification of Telematics and Infotainment Services by Bandwidth and (3.5G network technology) or higher to vehicle production (3-5 years) combined accommodate bandwidth and latency Latency Requirements with the vehicle life expectancy (an average Source: GSMA requirements of 7-10 years), resulting in the necessity of a Navigation services benefit from the solution that lasts more than 10 years). ∙∙additional bandwidth and lower latency provided by more advanced network technologies, i.e. EDGE (2.5G network technology or higher). This classification captures the current dilemma relating to the selection of the most appropriate technology, i.e.: a wide variety of telematics services can be provided with older, more inexpensive technologies, but the emerging service categories (many based upon infotainment) require newer, higher bandwidth technologies.

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 41

Current coverage networks will continue to provide “next- best” mobile broadband connections. As discussed, coverage varies significantly in different regions of the world. As discussed earlier in this report, the likely timeline for the viability of LTE varies by Today, 2G network technology generally region, with aggressive roll-outs planned for: offers the widest coverage, and as such, has 1.6 been a natural choice for many automakers Developed Asia-Pacific for telematics services. Yet, as described ∙∙ 1.4 previously, 3G WCDMA/HSPA networks ∙∙North America. are expected to cover more than 85% of the How telematics and infotainment services world’s population in five years, up from just are evolving 1.2 over half in 2012. In addition, LTE is expected to cover half of the world’s population in five Usage of all of the categories of telematics 1.0 years, up from 6% this year. and infotainment services is likely to grow in the next decade. Considerations for the future of regional 0.8 coverage In 2011, Machina Research conducted a market sizing study (Machine-to-Machine 0.6 The viability of 2G network technology (M2M) Communication in the Automotive Sector Connections (billions) as a solution for telematics services in 2010-20), which forecast major growth (see some regions, such as Europe and North Figure 38) in both telematics and infotainment 0.4 America, is in question, due to the need services between 2010 and 2020.20 to re-farm spectrum used for 2G services 0.2 for LTE and LTE-Advanced; However, a large-scale deployment of mission-critical 0 2G technology would influence decisions on the viability and the commercial impact of 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 switching-off 2G. Vehicle platform In the long term, continued demand Security and tracking for bandwidth will drive all regions 20 Emergency / eCall towards LTE (and LTE-Advanced), so this Machina’s forecasts include both vehicle platforms and aftermarket devices; the figures do not include applications Entertainment and internet access network technology could be the future that run solely on the vehicle platform, such as the ‘voice’ and Navigation foundation for infotainment services (where ‘manufacturer data’ categories, given their lack of associated Insurance the additional technical performance ‘connections’. Lease, rental, HP and share car management characteristics are particularly useful for 21 Note: There are applications that run solely on the vehicle the quality of the end service), as well as platform, such as the ‘voice’ and ‘manufacturer data’ categories, Figure 38: Machina Research’s Automotive Forecast for Global M2M Connections 21 telematics. It is likely that HSPA and HSPA+ and therefore do not have associated ‘connections’. Source: GSMA

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 42

Although the Machina growth forecasts the first step to enable an open environment include aftermarket devices, they capture the through apps, with solutions already exponential growth of the sector overall. available/announced by BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Jaguar, GM, Ford, Toyota and Mini. Automakers indicate that: At present, there is little commonality in the Telematics and infotainment will be offered technical solutions being offered to customers, ∙∙across vehicle brands, with a critical mass 180 although the services are focused on internet on embedded solutions radio and social networking. Going forward, 160 Tethered solutions will continue, with a the industry standard MirrorLink22 may ∙∙focus on providing upgradable solutions provide some level of commonality across 140 for technology and, hence, the higher automakers, but proprietary solutions are 120 bandwidth services, i.e. infotainment, high very likely to exist in parallel, creating a very bandwidth apps (music & video) fragmented industry. 100 Embedded solutions will continue for The alternative approach is for automakers ∙∙ to embed an open platform in the car 80 vehicle-centric, high-reliability and high- availability apps (such as eCall and bCall) and for new apps to be downloaded to Annual traffic (PB) Annual traffic 60 the embedded system. Such solutions Infotainment and video services are are starting to be rolled out by Mercedes, ∙∙expected to grow exponentially. 40 Renault, GM and PSA, but this is still quite Machina’s forecast for global wireless traffic an immature market. 20 generated by embedded mobility in the Integrating voice controls and built-in automotive sector shows entertainment 0 control devices, such as centre stack and and internet access driving an exponential driving wheel buttons, with apps running on 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 increase (see Figure 39). user’s mobile devices, enables automakers Enabling apps in the car to take advantage of the creativity and rapid Manufacturer data development cycles of the app ecosystem Lease, rental, HP and share car management One of automakers’ priorities is to enable an and build additional revenue streams and Insurance open environment that provides the driver service offerings. with access to new and evolving functionality Voice during their ownership of the car. This is in Navigation contrast to the current situation, where it is Entertainment and internet access almost impossible to add features to a car Vehicle recovery / roadside assistance after it has been produced. 22 Mirrorlink ~ An industry standard that defines how a vehicle Figure 39: Forecast for Global Wireless Traffic Generated by Embedded Mobility by Application In the short term, automakers are looking HMI can be used to display and control an application running Source: Machina Research 2011 to smartphone and tablet integration as on a smartphone, typically over a BT or USB cable connection.

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 43

Automakers can partner with mobile Cooperative Systems operators and multiple data and service Co-operative systems are systems providers to harness the internet (standardized in frame of EC M/453) based connectivity and additional computing on: power provided by rapidly-evolving smartphones and tablets to innovate quickly best use of access and transport and create cloud-based offerings. ∙∙technologies One of the key challenges for automakers is the exchange of information among to decide which operating system to adopt ∙∙Intelligent Transport System (ITS) stations for their in-car platform. They also need to and back-end systems. decide on: The current focus is on enabling cooperation whether to wait for a browser-based between road hazard warning systems and ∙∙solution, such as HTML5 ‘classical’ ITS applications. Road safety systems request the exchange of real/near whether to develop an app store-style real time information between: ∙∙environment for offering new apps Vehicles (i.e. V2V and/or V2I<=>I2V), the business model. ∙∙ ∙∙ Vehicles and infrastructure The Connected Car Forum has had some ∙∙(i.e. I2V and V2I) and initial discussions about whether mobile operators could use their app store experience Infrastructure (i.e. I2I). and infrastructure to support the automakers ∙∙ Historically, road hazard warning systems with the implementation challenges that have relied on the deployment of ad-hoc they face. However, a clear vision of what non-cellular technology. The use of mobile automakers may want to implement in the technologies, such as HSPA and LTE, has future has not emerged, and so this is a topic been studied and brought to standardisation, for further investigation. as enabling technologies for the information exchange between: ∙∙vehicles and infrastructure (V2I) and ∙∙across infrastructure (I2I).

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 44

What Are the Next Steps?

This chapter explores how direct cooperation Preface What are the first results from between automakers and mobile operators could The further evolution of telematics and this cooperation? overcome existing challenges in the connected infotainment services depends on increased Based on this premise, the GSMA’s car ecosystem. It summarises key recurrent topics collaboration between automakers and Connected Car Forum has been successful in: mobile network operators: These stakeholders suggested for joint cooperation during the course will need to cooperate to resolve the existing Bringing the primary actors from multiple of the Connected Car Forum since June 2011. It barriers and to develop new opportunities. ∙∙geographies to the table also suggests key topics for future cooperation However, this collaboration needs to Defining first user requirements and use between automakers and mobile operators. recognise that whilst the automotive industry ∙∙case definition for services has a product horizon of more than 15 years The focus of the first technical work has been (i.e. 3-5 year development cycle, plus 7-10 on the: year average vehicle lifetime); the mobile industry has been in existence for little Definition of the basic industrial and more than 20 years in total. In that time, an ∙∙technological requirements for telematics evolution from GSM to UMTS to HSPA and and infotainment and services (for today now to LTE has taken place, accompanied and future evolutions) with a shift from a pure voice service, through Identification of priority areas for cross- messaging, broadband internet browsing ∙∙industry cooperation and now to also address opportunities in adjacent industries, such as the automotive Development of first stage requirements sector. The speed of this evolution means ∙∙and use cases for remotely-provisioned that it is practically impossible to predict SIMs in the automotive sector the technology that will be prevalent and Mapping of the primary obstacles in widespread in mobile networks 20 years from ∙∙utilising different connectivity options, now. This uncertainty presents a challenge i.e. tethering and brought-in smart that has to be acknowledged and reflected phone integration. upon, to allow both industries to enter into business together for today and the foreseeable future. The inherent differences in the product lifecycles in the mobile and automotive industries underline the importance of operators and automakers working closely together to ensure seamless services for consumers.

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 45

Where could cross-industry The development of better operator common interpretation of the regulations cooperation continue to be ∙∙solutions, which match automaker and using the Connected Car Forums’ requirements and, therefore, ultimately agreed inputs to feedback formally to beneficial? result in an improved end user experience regulators. Establishing a knowledge pool (covering privacy) for the industry Based upon these discussions, further areas Strategic business development. for potential cross-industry cooperation have ∙∙ Business models: Developing arguments These goals can be classified as: been identified. They are generally classifiable ∙∙showing the real internal benefits of into three categories (see Figure 40): ∙∙Shorter-term objectives, in which positive connected cars in term of internal efficiencies ∙∙Advancing enablers which will unlock outcomes are likely and internal savings for automakers the full potential for connectivity support Longer-term objectives, which need to be Charging principles (in domestic and Connectivity Enablers services in telematics and infotainment, ∙∙addressed if the full potential of connected ∙∙roaming scenarios) to support service- including remote provisioning, billing, Billing & charging car services is to be reached. based billing and split billing ∙∙ Privacy roaming, security ∙∙ Security ∙∙ Roaming Ensuring operational improvements Priority areas for cooperation ∙∙ Future-proofing embedded ∙∙(such as improved service delivery between operators and automakers ∙∙ Remote provisioning by different connectivity methods ∙∙ Service awareness (tethering and smart phone integration), Although there are a large number of ∙∙ eCall deployment, defining common potential areas of cooperation, the GSMA requirements for telematics services and recommends immediate cooperation between optimising data usage) operators and automakers in these areas: New Business Development Operational Improvements Exploring the opportunities for fostering Business interfaces for remotely- Joint APIs Optimising current tethering / ∙∙new business developments, including ∙∙provisioned SIMs (including automotive ∙∙Business modelling ∙∙defining next generation joint APIs and how to create and foster proof-of-concept), ∙∙Cloud based services Regulatory fitment mandates a scalable, viable and user-friendly ∙∙High bandwidth-enabled services ∙∙and ensuring value-add Developing joint initiatives with HMTL5-based services opportunities for new services application ecosystem. ∙∙ ∙∙MNOs, automakers and SIM vendors, ∙∙ Optimising data usage Ultimately, co-operation in these areas showcasing automotive use cases and ∙∙ would drive: inputting recommendations to the standardization process ∙∙An increase in the overall market for telematics and infotainment Regulation: Developing understanding Figure 40: Breadth of Potential Joint Cooperation Areas ∙∙and support of issues arising from new A reduction in the fragmentation in Source: GSMA regulations in the automotive sector, ∙∙the market providing regular updates about the status of the different regulations, agreeing on a

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 46

Tethering: Overcoming technical ∙∙barriers by delivering recommendations and guidelines to be promoted to the ecosystem (MNOs, automakers, terminal vendors) enabling interoperability and a standardized approach. Who should be involved in these cross-industry activities? Short Term Objectives Long Term Objectives Key global players in the primary geographies – Asia-Pacific, Europe and How to lower existing How to provide connectivity North America – from both the automotive ∙∙operational barriers to ∙∙and value-added services, and the mobile industries need to be actively deployment of services? which reflect the underlying engaged in co-operative initiatives to foster How to reduce fragmentation needs of automakers, so as to connected car services. ∙∙in requirements so as to further support deployment of telematics and infotainment? The involvement of other value-chain actors streamline the development of services? is a useful mechanism to handle specific How to foster overall growth in thematic topics, particularly in those areas ∙∙the telematics and infotainment where both the barriers and opportunities services? involve a broad variety of players (beyond Figure 41: Principle Means to Improve the Telematics and just automakers and mobile operators), such Infotainment Services through Cross-Industry Action as tethering. Source: GSMA

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 47

Annex

Glossary 2G bCall – Breakdown call HSPA – High Speed Packet Access Second-generation wireless telephone A service which will send the current An amalgamation of two mobile telephony technology. Most second-generation cellular position of a broken-down vehicle to a protocols, High Speed Downlink Packet telecom networks use the GSM standard. roadside assistance organisation and initiate Access (HSDPA) and High Speed Uplink a voice call. 3G Packet Access (HSUPA), which extend and improve the performance of existing Third generation mobile telecommunications Embedded system WCDMA protocols. – a generation of standards for mobile An embedded system is some combination phones and mobile telecommunication of computer hardware and software, either IMSI – International Mobile Subscriber Identity services fulfilling the International Mobile fixed in capability or programmable, that is An unique identification associated with all Telecommunications-2000 (IMT-2000) specifically-designed for a particular function. GSM and UMTS network mobile phone users. specifications set out by the International ETSI – European Telecommunications Standards LTE – Long Term Evolution Telecommunication Union – the specialized Institute A standard for the wireless communication of agency of the United Nations which An independent, non-profit, standardization high-speed data to and from mobile devices. is responsible for information and organization. communication technologies. MNO – Mobile Network Operator Fleet management A telephone company that owns and runs 4G A service, which permits the owner or a network that provides services to mobile 4G is the fourth generation of cellular manager of a vehicle fleet to monitor the phone subscribers. wireless standards, providing broadband status of the vehicles remotely. mobile communications that will supersede MNVO – Mobile Network Virtual Operator the third generation (3G). GSM – Global System for Mobile A mobile phone operator that provides Communications services directly to their own customers, APIs – Application programming interfaces A standard set developed by the European but does not own key network assets, such Source code-based specifications intended Telecommunications Standards Institute as a licensed frequency allocation of radio to be used as an interface by software (ETSI) to describe technologies for second spectrum and the cell tower infrastructure. components to communicate with each other. generation (2G) digital cellular networks. Instead these assets are leased from a mobile App store network operator in the region where the HLR – Home Location Register The purpose of an app store in the context MVNO operates. The mobile operator’s system for the storage of this report is to allow users to browse and and administration of individual user OEM – Original Equipment Manufacturer download applications to an in-car system. subscriptions on the mobile network. In the context of this document, OEM refers Applications are likely to be controlled to automakers. by the vehicle manufacturer to ensure a HMI – Human Machine Interaction consistent HMI and to ensure only ‘safe’ The space where interaction between OTA – Over-the-Air driving apps can be used. humans and machines occurs. Another phrase for wireless communication, this is the transfer of information between two or more points that are not physically connected.

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 48

Remote management SVT – Stolen Vehicle Tracking This monitoring service enables vehicle A system, which facilitates the recovery of a status information, such as position, fuel vehicle after theft. level, or alarm notification status, to be sent TCU – telematics control unit to a remote end user. The embedded vehicle control unit that SIM – Subscriber Identity Module communicates with the automobile’s controls, An integrated circuit that securely stores GPS satellite and customer service centre to the International Mobile Subscriber Identity provide telematics features to a driver. (IMSI) and the related key used to identify UICC – Universal Integrated Circuit Card and authenticate subscribers on mobile The smart card used in mobile terminals telephony networks in GSM and UMTS networks. The UICC SM – Subscription Manager ensures the integrity and security of all kinds A new role in the provisioning ecosystem of personal data, and it typically holds a few to manage the relationship between mobile hundred kilobytes of data. operators and embedded SIMs. Its key UMTS – Universal Mobile Telecoms System responsibilities are the generation of operator A third generation mobile cellular technology profiles in real-time, management and for networks based on the GSM standard. execution of operator policy control functions and secure routing of profiles from an operator to embedded SIMs. Note – the full role of a ‘subscription manager’ is still being defined by the GSMA Embedded SIM project.

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 49

Cellular Network Technology: Redundancy, resilience and availability Node redundancy – this implies that More fundamental failures, such as power ∙∙critical functions are either paired (1+1 outages, are mitigated against through Additional Details Telecoms networks work to a principle redundancy) or if the function is clustered the implementation of batteries, diesel referred to widely in the industry as ‘five Primary operator principles so that more than one of the same element generators or some other form of site-based 9’s’ availability. This means that the network is on a site, there is a ‘stand by’ element power supply. should be functioning 99.999% of the time, (N+1 redundancy). This means that or put another way, the network can only be The result is a network that is highly should one node fail completely, there is unavailable for an average of 5 minutes and resilient to failure of equipment and another equivalent node on ‘warm stand 15 seconds per year. connections, and hence offers a high- by’ that can take over any calls or sessions availability service to its customers. Mobile operators aspire to this metric, but it that would otherwise be lost. More is a challenging target to reach, particularly advanced mechanisms for this are referred As mentioned earlier, the resilience and in a network where a radio interface to as ‘pooling’, where multiple elements robustness of a network does not imply that provides the connectivity to the customer. of the same type appear to the rest of the coverage using any specific radio technology The geographic coverage of the different network as one large element, and so any is assured (the topic of radio technology mobile technologies in mobile networks individual failure is completely hidden and its relationship to coverage is addressed today varies considerably according to the from the network operationally. elsewhere in the document), but the extent of the roll out of each technology and availability of the network when a device is Component redundancy – within each the spectrum available for each technology. connected to it is very high. ∙∙node there may be, for example, ten cards In the ‘wired’ parts of the mobile network, that are all performing the same function. Authentication and Security operators implement redundancy in three The node would be configured to have key ways, to protect the customer from nine of those cards live and the tenth as a Every mobile customer is familiar with any effects resulting from different types of hot stand by ready to take over should a the experience of turning on their mobile failure. These are: component fail on one of the other cards. phone and being assured that the network recognises them and will route calls made to Link redundancy – this means that various If any of the above failures take place, their phone number correctly. To do this, the ∙∙elements within the network are connected the redundancy mechanisms that are network and the device have to establish a by pairs of connections (be that wires, implemented will mean that the network “trust relationship” that can be relied upon. fibres, point-to-point radio connections or does not fail and/or calls are not lost. Any This is done by using encryption algorithms a combination of these). This means that if such failure also triggers alarms in the and network-generated ‘challenges’ to one of the connections between two pieces network operation centre (NOC) which the customer’s phone to make sure the of equipment fails for some reason, the can then be addressed by maintenance network can be sure that the phone (and second connection is able to automatically staff who can replace any failed parts or re- more importantly, the phone number and pick up the traffic without the calls or establish connectivity. associated subscription) is who it says it is session being disrupted and is entitled to service.

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 50

Two elements are involved in this trust of this authentication, calls to the phone over the radio interface, make cryptographic relationship. One is in the device and is often number associated with the authenticated attacks almost impossible to achieve in referred to as the ‘SIM card’ – it is, in fact, subscription can be routed to the customer real time and are, otherwise, extremely more correctly called a UICC (Universal and activity for which the customer will be difficult to execute. In order to attempt to Integrated Circuit Card), which has a SIM billed can be correctly recorded and charged hack the air interface, a prolonged period application installed on it. The UICC has to that account. of transmission and collection of encrypted proven itself to be a remarkably secure and traffic is required to allow for interception When considering this in the light of resilient platform on which to host security- and decryption to occur, but this occurs very requirements for embedded mobile services, sensitive applications and services. The rarely. Although it is theoretically-possible it remains fundamentally important that UICC is widely used, not just in telecoms, to launch an attack involving the insertion a device and subscription is unique and but also in banking (the same technology is of an unlawful interception tool in the air is authenticated to the network to prevent implemented on “chip and PIN” credit and interface, an attacker would need to first fraudulent behaviour, as is the case with debit cards) and other applications because identify the intended target, which is made GSM and mobile technologies evolved from of its high level of security and its suitability difficult by virtue of the use of temporary GSM’s security architecture. This ability to to host and support sensitive applications identities to protect the anonymity of mobile uniquely identify and authenticate users is and services. users. Moreover, the attack would require fundamental to correct billing for service a prolonged period of connection, in which The SIM application on the UICC uses (see next section) and also is key for any the target doesn’t move to a new cell, which security credentials to generate responses to location-tracking services. is contrary to the whole purpose and nature challenges generated from the network by Once an individual has been authenticated, of services that are designed to enable the second element in the trust relationship, it is important to also secure traffic that is mobility. Attackers would also need to have the authentication centre (AuC). The AuC, generated and passed across the network. significant technical skills and resources, which is a core network infrastructure Mobile networks are built to a high level of beyond the capabilities of the vast majority element, holds security profiles for every security integrity, and successful attacks on of the population. These three things make subscriber to the mobile network. When a mobile networks are extremely rare. Attacks any such attack most unlikely to succeed. device needs to be authenticated, the AuC can come in the form of electronic or viral generates security parameters that are used The one point of vulnerability in relation attacks, or in the form of physical damage in the challenge to the SIM application on to a service over a mobile network is the to equipment and installations, but these are the UICC in the customer’s device. It also service itself. The growth of smartphone tremendously rare. In either case, networks generates the expected result from the SIM usage and the attachment of laptops to are designed to withstand and repel such application which is then compared with the mobile networks has highlighted that, no attacks with minimal or no impact on the result that is returned from the SIM itself. matter how secure you make a network, you service being provided. cannot protect customers from themselves. When there is a match, the subscriber The air interface between device and As with personal computers, downloading is considered to be authenticated to network is possibly the most vulnerable part applications and content from untrusted the network, or confirmed to be who of the network. But even here, the use of third party sites can result in viruses being they claim to be and they have a valid encryption algorithms, and the complexity downloaded unbeknownst to the customer. subscription to obtain service. On the basis of the air interface used to protect traffic Poorly implemented applications can also

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 51

be prone to attack from hackers. Although pass on charges (if the use case for such a equally does not receive (and as a result, industrial applications can place faith in service is designed around that model) or be is not charged) for services that they do the mobile network’s integrity to assure assured that the charges being levied by the not subscribe to. The management of the protection at one level, they also need to mobile operator to a third party are accurate. subscription for an individual customer ensure that their service suite, passing over The integrity that has been built into mobile requires technical integration between the mobile network, is equally secure, for the operator billing systems can be used by customer care systems, provisioning systems sake of their customers. businesses outside of the traditional mobile and the subscription management elements Billing telecoms value chain to understand a great within the mobile operator network, these deal about their customers’ usage patterns. being the home location register (HLR) or Billing systems go hand-in-hand with the home subscription server (HSS). Equally, operator billing systems can be authentication and security mechanisms of used to manage other forms of contract that Customer care and customer support the mobile operator network. If a customer may be required by different sets of their cannot be correctly identified, or the traffic Mobile operators have a commitment to customers. Wholesale agreements with that they generate cannot be allocated and support their customers that goes beyond companies or enterprises can be facilitated recorded correctly, it is impossible for the that typical in some adjacent industries, such to provide a single bill for a large number of network to generate an accurate, event- as the internet or computing sectors. This individual devices, even when those devices based bill. Currently, billing systems (BSS) support has traditionally been provided may not be tied to an individual person. This are designed to identify specific events via call centres, but is increasingly moving makes the operator capable of providing for which charges are levied against the online as a cheaper, more efficient option. bills to customers with large numbers of customer’s account – these are referred to The expertise that mobile operators have ‘non-traditional’ devices as a consolidated as ‘billable events’. The network watches in being able to provide end users and bill. Operators can support any form of the traffic that is generated by a customer corporate customers with advice and charging model, from a flat rate monthly and monitors for these billable events. support on matters relating to both their service charge to a highly granular bill, with When events occur, they are reported from services and the devices in the hands of the detail of each individual occasion of device- the network to the BSS in call data records customers has considerable value which can network interaction. No change in network (CDRs). The CDRs are then correlated in the be extended to include support for services technology is required to enable this, only an BSS and result in either charges being added that are in the embedded mobile sphere. understanding of the contract and suitable to the customer’s bill, if they are a post-paid software changes to reflect the billing model Operators often support large corporate customer, or credit being deducted from a on the customer bill itself. clients with dedicated customer support customer’s pre-paid account if they are a teams, and so for a deployment of a large pre-paid customer. Subscription and device management number of embedded mobile devices, By using the mobile operator’s billing The mobile operator has a responsibility operators could similarly provide a customer systems to generate charges and to to manage its customers’ subscriptions support offering which is tailored to the understand connection utilisation by correctly, so that the customer receives specific requirements of the organisation individual devices, third parties can in turn all services that they are entitled to and operating those devices.

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 52

Network characteristics where 3G spectrum has been available for adoption. As LTE gains greater economies Coverage some time, 3G coverage may be limited to of scale, costs fall, making the service more urban and suburban areas, and perhaps accessible to more of the customer base, 2G GSM service is provided in every country along major transport links such as roads which in turn drives further adoption, and on the planet by at least one operator per and train lines. 3G coverage may well be hence, greater coverage on more networks. country, and in most cases, more than limited in rural areas. Bandwidth one. Coverage levels are high due to the Because HSPA and HSPA+ use the same use of low frequency spectrum bands and Bandwidth on GSM and GPRS is very spectrum as WCDMA, they are subject to because the roll out of GSM networks has limited. As the technology for GSM the same coverage constraints. However, been taking place for more than 20 years. networks was originally optimised mobile operators are likely to continue to At present, 2G GSM/EDGE networks cover for carrying voice transmitted using a invest in HSPA coverage either to provide close to 90% of the world’s population. narrowband codec with limited radio a full mobile broadband network or as a resources, using GSM to support high EDGE coverage is a subset of GSM coverage. complementary technology to their LTE bandwidth data services is not feasible. Some networks have not deployed EDGE deployments. The motivation to deploy at all, whilst others have deployed the increased HSPA coverage is far greater EDGE networks support a range of peak technology in areas where 3G coverage is than that for WCDMA, since the service transmission speeds from 238kbps to limited – 3G licensed spectrum is often in experience is better for the consumer and 2.048Mbps (if EDGE Evolution is used, higher frequency ranges limiting the range has been widely embraced. although this has only recently been of each base station. deployed). These are theoretical maximums Global LTE coverage today is low (although and the real achievable throughput is generally 3G is available in 80% of the 236 countries some developed countries already have high between 2/5 and 1/5 of this bandwidth. worldwide as there remain some nations urban coverage, e.g. USA and South Korea), where the government has yet to license both in terms of the number of markets that The first 3G networks had a peak 3G spectrum. 3G WCDMA/HSPA have live LTE network deployments, and throughput of 384kbps. In practice, data networks cover just over half of the world’s in terms of the LTE coverage offered within transmission rates were considerably slower population to date while the penetration is those markets by the operators that have than that. HSPA began with theoretical expected to reach 85% in five years. Where launched. The timing of LTE deployments maximum supported data rates of 1.8Mbps 3G networks are available, coverage tends to depends in part on the availability of or 3.6Mbps. However, HSPA networks be a subset of that of 2G, partly because the ‘digital dividend’ spectrum (discussed and devices now support peak rates of cost of deploying widespread 3G networks further below), which is in low frequency 7.2Mbps, 14.4Mbps, and HSPA+ peak rates can be high – in most cases 3G is deployed in bands, and hence is suitable for good rural of 21Mbps, 28Mbps and 42Mbps. There the 2100MHz spectrum band . To achieve the coverage. Over time, LTE deployment is are plans to support at least 84Mbps in the equivalent geographic coverage, networks in likely to follow the same pattern as 2G future, and standards work has begun to the 2100MHz band require 5 to 10 times the and HSPA service roll out, with growing allow for eight bearers to be bonded together number of cells required for networks in the adoption creating economies of scale for giving a maximum throughput of 672Mbps. 900MHz band (which is widely used for 2G). suppliers of network equipment and device However, it is questionable whether any This in turn means that even in countries components, driven by increasing scale and operator would hold sufficient spectrum

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 53

for this maximum rate to be achieve. Real Low latency has been designed into LTE (which would perhaps be the case when throughput tends to average between 1/5 from the outset. A radio latency of less than considering tethering of a handset) will and 1/7 of theoretical maximums. This still 10ms is the requirement, which makes LTE be much lower than that provided by an makes HSPA+ bandwidths as good as, or an ideal technology for voice services and antenna on the exterior of the vehicle. This better than, most ADSL services. video telephony. It should be noted that the is because vehicles are, by design, moving Voice over LTE standard uses a different metal boxes, and metal boxes reflect radio LTE has theoretical peak download rates of mechanism to connect voice calls to that waves, thus meaning the coverage in a 170Mbps, and early network deployments used on 2G and 3G mobile networks – vehicle is affected adversely. In order are delivering data rates between 10Mbps instead of using circuit-switched technology to effectively deploy LTE modules in and 50Mbps. These rates are generally for voice, Voice over LTE specifies that voice automobiles, enhanced, multiple antennas in excess of those available on current calls are delivered via a technology called will be required to derive maximum consumer fixed line services using DSL and IMS, using a service definition developed by performance especially at higher velocities. cable modem technologies. the GSMA. Latency Coverage can also be affected by radio Limiting factors – some things we can do interference from other sources of radio GSM is optimised for the delivery of voice nothing about waves in the local environment. This can calls, so latency is low on the radio interface. include many other types of electrical As good as a mobile operator’s service may Similarly, EDGE latency is low – around equipment, overhead power cables and become, there are some aspects of mobile 150ms. Since EDGE, in part, makes use fluorescent lights. In most cases, such technology that are outside of anyone’s of TDM signalling, but with much higher sources of interference do not remain control. These mostly relate to limitations bandwidth data channels, the latency of persistently close to a moving vehicle, but due to the laws of physics. a voice call being carried on EDGE can be it is worth considering that affects can be very low indeed. However, since latency Mobile technologies use radio waves, found in localised areas. on 2G networks is low in general anyway, and whilst radio waves do penetrate into Why is spectrum so important? the improvements provided through buildings, the level of penetration and deployment of EDGE are not usually hence the coverage and data rate achievable Spectrum for GSM/GPRS has been perceptible to customers on voice calls. decreases as the frequency band rises. This identified and licensed around the world is not a major concern for the automotive for a number of years, with spectrum 3G networks have fairly low latency industry since the nature of vehicles is to be predominantly harmonized around the characteristics – the use of 3G networks to outdoors when in use, but it does mean that 900 MHz and 1800 MHz frequency bands. support voice calls is fairly widespread. coverage in tunnels is likely to be poor. This in turn means that chipsets for 2G The shift from TDM to CDMA as a radio technology are very cheap compared with multiplexing technique enables support Equally, placement of the antenna on a more recent technologies, to the extent that of greater data rates, but does result in a vehicle will be a critical factor influencing 2G handsets can be priced at under $30 in small increase in latency. Since HSPA offers the service received by the customer. The some markets. This spectrum is ring-fenced, a major increase in bandwidth, latency on quality of the reception provided by an to some degree, due to the importance of voice calls is relatively low. antenna that is placed inside the vehicle 2G networks to the world’s communication

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 54

capability and the world’s economy. Re- 2.6GHz). Digital dividend spectrum is being ‘technology-agnostic’ licenses. It is this farming of 2G spectrum (particularly in freed by the move from analogue to digital trend that allows for previously licensed, the 900MHz band) has been discussed, broadcast signals for television. Since the but unused, 1800MHz spectrum to be but hasn’t gained significant momentum. analogue to digital switchover is an on-going considered for LTE. It will also be this This is due in part to the logistical issues of process in many markets around the world, shift that may usher in the potential for clearing the band of customers, particularly the timing of the availability of this band refarming of spectrum to be used for in a market where new embedded mobile varies across markets. 2.6GHz spectrum is different mobile technologies than those it services in other business sectors are open in most markets and so has a good was originally licensed for. making new use of 2G technology (for degree of alignment in licensing, notably in As bandwidth demands increase due to example smart metering and utility network Europe. This spectrum is also being licensed rising usage of dongles and smartphones, management and monitoring). Operators by countries elsewhere in the world with operators may consider re-farming that see decreasing 2G penetration in varying timelines. their existing spectrum bands to higher their own customer base may still want to There are two variants to LTE technology, bandwidth technologies. Refarming has the support 2G in-bound roamers. As a result, namely FDD (Frequency Division Duplex) potential to: some level of 2G network support will and TDD (Time Division Duplex). The latter likely continue to exist for some time to address the overall bandwidth variant is being deployed in 2.5GHz spectrum come in many markets. EDGE is deployed ∙∙requirements of customers in the future, band. The future of TD-LTE – and more in 2G spectrum with GPRS and GSM. and also specifically the availability and affordability Compatibility between the technologies of TD-LTE devices – is dependent upon the exists so EDGE can be deployed into any provide a potential mechanism to use adoption of the network technology in China ∙∙ spectrum band allocated for 2G. lower frequency bands (which result in and India, which will drive TD-LTE global higher coverage levels due to larger cell 3G spectrum bands have been licensed economies of scale. Chipset manufacturers sizes) to deliver much greater bandwidth for some time in both developed and are developing multi-mode FDD/TDD capacities in rural areas than today. developing markets, while around 50 chipsets to facilitate interoperability and developing countries are still awaiting regional roaming capabilities. The decision about which bands to refarm commercial 3G services to date. However, is not straightforward since any customers There is also considerable interest in the as 3G spectrum has been harmonized that are currently dependent upon the band re-farming of existing 2G spectrum in the internationally, the cost of 3G chipsets has identified for refarming will be affected. Some 1800MHz band to use for 4G LTE services.. eroded rapidly making 3G handsets and existing mobile services have been sold on the According to Wireless Intelligence23, re- data-devices fairly affordable. 3G spectrum basis of the high coverage levels of 2G, whilst farmed spectrum in the 1800MHz band can be used for WCDMA, HSPA and HSPA+. others are based on the higher bandwidths currently accounts for almost 40% of the of 3G technologies. The decision is also likely LTE requires new and additional spectrum global LTE market and will continue to do so to be influenced by the individual regulatory to be licensed. The two primary spectrum over the next four years. environments in each country and the bands for LTE are the ‘digital dividend’ conditions of the original license. 23 There is a growing trend among a large Wireless Intelligence, Spectrum refarming at 1800 MHz key at 700MHz or 800MHz (dependent upon number of regulatory regimes towards to LTE device adoption, published in September 2012. market) and the IMT-extension band (2.5-

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 55

Making an existing license technology- 2.5G – EDGE own capabilities. This in combination with neutral does not automatically trigger the a number of teething problems associated Whilst EDGE (Enhanced Data rates for end of an existing service and a shift to with 3G <-> 2G handovers meant that initial GSM Evolution) is widely referred to as something new, but it certainly removes a consumer experience was poor, and 3G ‘2.5G’, it is an accepted technology in the barrier to that occurring. networks ended up being used primarily for ITU-R IMT-2000 family of technologies and voice, rather than data, traffic. It was not until Network Generation: Details so could strictly be called a 3G technology. the advent of HSPA (see following section) EDGE came about through the move to a 2G – GSM and GPRS that mobile data services began to really take more efficient encoding technique on 2G off. The other issue that slowed 3G adoption radio data paths, which led initially to a GSM was the first digital mobile technology initially was limitations of WAP services. maximum throughput of around 120kbps. to be defined and has become the de facto WAP was intended to be a lightweight However, further advancements in 3GPP choice of technology for around 800 mobile protocol for displaying internet content on have led to rates of 440kbps, and latterly, in operators today. It was originally defined mobile devices, but again, it would not be excess of 1Mbps being theoretically possible. to support voice calls using Time Division until the rise of the smartphone, equipped The adoption of EDGE has been relatively Multiplexing (TDM). TDM is optimised for with web browsers, that a true internet slow, as it became available around the voice transport, since it is low latency, but it experience equivalent to a fixed broadband same time as 3G (WCDMA) came to market, is not good for delivery of large amounts of connection would be realised. data. As a result, when GSM was extended and many operators preferred to base their to also include a ‘packet switched’ or data data connectivity strategy on the newer For all of this, 3G networks are now delivery network (also known as GPRS), the technology (particularly those that had spent widely deployed, but they have been maximum theoretical throughput was only a large amount of money acquiring spectrum transformed into HSPA networks, and thus 40kbps, with actual network speeds mostly for WCDMA roll out). However, today many the performance of the typical WCDMA 3G below this. These speeds were achieved networks support EDGE, although not network is greatly improved. through the aggregation of multiple time always with the same degree of geographical 3.5G – HSPA and HSPA+ slots of GSM signal into a single data stream. coverage as GSM/GPRS. HSPA’s early marketing was relatively low In addition to supporting voice, GSM 3G – WCDMA key. HSPA was defined first in 2005 and also provided the capability to deliver the Whilst 2G networks had been designed to launched shortly afterwards, but through Short Messaging Service (SMS). SMS was support voice and had then had data added aggressive pricing and the advent of the USB originally intended to be a basic M2M on, 3G networks are designed and built with dongle, it soon became a significant success. mechanism for sending short commands data in mind. 3G was developed as a part Adoption of HSPA was further catalysed by to devices attached to the mobile network. of 3GPP Release 99, and deployed widely the advent of the smartphone. Smartphones The expansion of SMS into a person-to- from 2001 onwards. 3G was sold on headline depend on high bandwidth connectivity person message service happened after rates of 384kbps, but in reality delivered to make the consumer experience of the SMS technology had been defined and was much lower rates and as a result was not a applications supported on the handset as actually not its original application. huge consumer success on the basis of its good as possible.

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 56

With smartphones’ support for e-mail, social connections worldwide. Furthermore, almost implemented by more than 200 operators networking applications and a swathe of all data devices (dongles, tablets, mobile worldwide in five years. other ways to enable the customer to ‘stay hotspots, laptops) are now 3G compatible, Five years ago, LTE was often compared connected’ or to view content (including with nine out of ten HSPA-enabled. with WiMAX, with proponents of WiMAX videos) while on the move, the demand According to Ericsson, all WCDMA claiming an advantage in terms of time to for bandwidth on a network is increasing networks worldwide have been upgraded market. Since then it has become clear that across three metrics – more customers with HSPA. Furthermore, around 75% of WiMAX will play little more than a niche are viewing more bandwidth intensive HSPA networks have been upgraded to a role in the industry – most mobile operators content for longer. This presents both peak downlink speed of 7.2 Mbps or above have made commitments to LTE as their a challenge to the network operator to and approximately 50% have been upgraded future technology, and some operators that support this rapidly escalating demand, but to 21 Mbps or higher. have initially deployed WiMAX are now also an opportunity to find new revenue switching to LTE. Overall, WiMAX has streams in the bandwidth-hungry market. 4G – LTE attracted around 20 million connections Operators and equipment manufacturers globally in four years25 and is on a slow are continually advancing the bandwidth LTE is being marketed by many operators growth trajectory. In the next two to three capabilities that are offered to customers. around the world as ‘4G’, but this is not years, LTE will become a major technology The advance from HSPA to HSPA+ through strictly true. As per the ITU classification, LTE in the industry with WCDMA and CDMA the use of QAM64 modulation, multi-carrier is in fact an evolution of IMT-2000 technology operators both moving towards LTE as a bonding and MIMO technologies means that and hence comes under the 3G categorisation common end goal. HSPA supports bandwidths up to 42Mbps in with WCDMA, HSPA, HSPA+ and other networks today and has potential to go far technologies mentioned previously. The ITU Additional technologies outside of the GSM beyond that, even to peak speeds in excess concluded that IMT-Advanced and WiMAX2 family of 600Mbps in its most extreme incarnation. should be defined as ‘4G’ technologies. For all of this, many mobile operators have Alternative 2G technologies According to Wireless Intelligence, HSPA announced that LTE is ‘4G’ and so the Whilst the vast majority (around 85%) of had 600 million worldwide connections marketing machine has started an irreversible the world’s operators use GSM as their 2G by end of 2011 and the growth in HSPA branding of LTE as 4G. connections (at the end of 2011, running technology, other 2G technologies do exist. at around 19 million per month) shows LTE is likely to impact the mobile industry Some operators in North America, China no sign of slowing. Wireless Intelligence24 in two major ways. First, it is set to deliver and other regions employed a technology further identified a significant decline in practical data rates that are in excess of called CDMA2000, whilst operators in Japan 20Mbps. TeliaSonera launched the first chose to use PDC. 24 the number of WCDMA-only devices in Wireless Intelligence, 3G technologies reshaping mobile device operator portfolios over the past two years commercial LTE network in Sweden at the Alternative 3G technologies market, published in April 2012. as these were replaced by HSPA-enabled end of 2009 and has reported average rates of 25 devices, reflecting the fact that HSPA now 25Mbps and peak rates in excess of 50Mbps. As with 2G, North American operators Second, and perhaps most importantly, LTE This estimate includes implementations to provide fixed accounts for more than three-quarters of 3G in some cases preferred to implement an wireless access and incompatible WiMAX-like implementations is expected to be a technology that will be alternative technology – CDMA2000 EV-DO in certain markets.

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 57

Rel.0. This technology was also adopted Regional deployment details by other operators in South Korea, India, Australia, New Zealand and some other The following table (Figure 42) depicts 2G 3G 4G forecasts by Wireless Intelligence (the markets. However, several operators – 2012 2017 2012 2017 2012 2017 notably in Brazil and Australia – have GSMA’s research arm) of network evolution AFRICA 88.8% 64.9% 11.2% 33.8% - 1.3% chosen to migrate from CDMA to WCDMA. by 2015 in terms of connections for different Operators that have received licenses for 3G regional markets. For the different forecasts, Middle Africa 96.1% 89.6% 3.9% 9.9% - 0.6% technology in the past two to three years have it is important to note that: AMERICAS 60.2% 33.9% 36.6% 50.1% 3.3% 16.0% tended to skip 3G, and move instead directly LTE roll-outs are likely to focus on urban Northern America to 3.5G technology – see the next section. ∙∙areas initially, and broader deployment 28.7% 9.8% 62.2% 54.8% 9.9% 35.5% Southern America 76.8% 44.8% 23.2% 48.0% - 7.2% Alternative 3.5G technologies will follow later; however some regulators have issued spectrum-licenses that ASIA 79.3% 54.9% 19.8% 36.8% 0.9% 8.4% Operators using CDMA2000 EV-DO Rel.0 26 stipulate nationwide rollout of LTE Eastern Asia 67.8% 40.3% 29.9% 42.5% 2.3% 17.3% can extend these networks in the same way as WCDMA operators can extend to HSPA. Spectrum re-farming will play an important EUROPE 60.0% 32.2% 39.6% 52.3% 0.4% 15.5% ∙∙role in the deployment of LTE, and other The EV-DO technology flavours available Western Europe 50.8% 22.0% 48.8% 56.7% 0.5% 21.3% are Rev A and Rev B, which are roughly high-bandwidth network technologies OCEANIA 31.6% 16.2% 66.5% 60.3% 1.9% 23.5% analogous to HSPA and HSPA+. ∙∙GSM technology implementation remains China Mobile, the world’s largest operator strong at a global level. Australasia 23.7% 9.3% 74.2% 64.1% 2.1% 26.6% by connections, has deployed a further alternative technology – TD-SCDMA. Figure 42: Network Technologies as a % of Regional Connections Whereas all other 3G technologies Source: Wireless Intelligence mentioned previously use Frequency Division Duplex (FDD) on the radio interfaces, TD-SCDMA uses Time Division Duplex (TDD). This has meant that China Mobile’s deployment is isolated from others on the world telecom stage.

26 E.g., German operators that acquire spectrum in the 800MHz band will have to roll out mobile broadband networks in rural areas that have limited broadband access.

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 58

Regional Deployment Plans for LTE

The following slides show the availability of spectrum for LTE in different regions of the world.

Worldwide Spectrum Availability Europe – Spectrum Bands for LTE There are multiple bands for LTE as defined by ITU ç both paired and unpaired

56 countries / terrotories ∙∙ 9+ bands ∙∙ Planned LTE bands ∙∙ » 700 MHz – not aligned with NA band US/Canada Europe » 800 MHz – European Digital Dividend band 700, 850 MHz 800, 900 MHz (Vodafone Germany, DT Germany) 1.8, 1.9/2.1, 2.3, 2.5 GHz 1.7/2.1, 1.9, 2.5 GHz Asia-Pacific » 900 MHz – re-farming of existing GSM band 450, 700, 850, 900 MHz » 1.8 GHz – operators considering reuse for LTE 1.7, 1.8, 1.9/2.1, 2.3, 2.5 GHz » 2.1 GHz – 3G band for possible reuse » 2.3 GHz – TDD band aligned across many markets » 2.5/2.6/2.7 GHz – aligned with many other markets (TeliaSonera) » 3.5 GHz – currently being defined for use in 3GPP Latin America Africa & Middle East Most operators in 1.8GHz, 2.6GHz or both 450,700,850,900 MHz 450, 800, 850, 900 MHz ∙∙Digital Dividend spectrum licensing in next 2-3 years 1.7/2.1, 1.8, 1.9, 2.5 GHz 1.8,1.9/2.1, 2.5 GHz ∙∙

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 59

North America – Spectrum Bands for LTE Asia Pacific – Most diverse spectrum bands

27 countries/territories 11+ bands 2 countries ∙∙ ∙∙ 7+ bands ∙∙ ∙∙ Planned LTE bands Planned LTE bands ∙∙ » 700 MHz – 700 MHz – but not aligned with North American band plan and some time away ∙∙ » 700 MHz – NA Digital Dividend, not aligned with Asia 700 band » 800 MHz – partly alighned with European band plan (SKT, LG U+) » (Verizon wireless, At&T, MetroPCS) » 900 MHz – refarming of 2G spectrum – differing » 1.7 GHz timelines globally » 2.0 GHz » 1.5 GH – specific to some markets in APAC, 2.1 GHz – Reuse of existing 3G band » not used in other markets (Rogers Wireless) » 1.8 GHz – many operators considering reuse for 2.5 GHz – aligned with Europe » LTE (SKT, HK CSL, M and Asia » 2.1 GHz – 3G band for possible reuse 3.5 GHz – currently being defined » (NTT DOCOMO, LG U+, SMART) for use in 3GPP » 2.3 GHz – TDD band aligned across many global markets » 2.5 GHz – alignment with many other markets (M1, CSL, HKs)

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 60

Latin America – Spectrum bands India – Spectrum bands

Band released ∙∙ » 900 MHz 26 countries / territories » 1800 MHz (2x35 MHz) ∙∙ 7+ bands ∙∙ » 2100 MHz (2x15 MHz) Planned LTE bands » 2.3 GHz (40 Mhz) ∙∙ » 700 MHz » 2.5 GHz (20 MHz) » 800 MHz » 1.7/2.1 GHz » 900 MHz » 2.5/2.6 GHz » 1.8 GHz Planned LTE bands » 1.9 GHz ∙∙ » 700 MHz » 1.7/2.1 GHz » 900 MHz » 2.5/2.6 GHz » 2.3 GHz » 2.5/2.6 GHz

February 2013 | Version 2.0 GSMA CONNECTED LIVING PROGRAMME: MAUTOMOTIVE Connecting Cars: The Technology Roadmap 61

Contributors About the GSMA and the Connected Living programme This report has been authored by the GSMA with support from the following contributors: The GSMA represents the interests of mobile Olivier Beaujard Ian Hay operators worldwide. Spanning more than (VP Market Development) (Head of Emerging Technologies) 220 countries, we unite nearly 800 of the Sierra Wireless Orange Group world’s mobile operators, as well as more Enrico Bracaccio Mikael Kihlbert than 200 companies in the broader mobile (Standards and Technology Manager) (Product Management & International Traffic) ecosystem. Connected Living is a three Ericsson Telecomunicazioni S.p.A Telenor Connexion year market development initiative whose mission is to help mobile operators accelerate Massimo Cavazzini David McClure the delivery of new connected devices and (Product Planning – Infotainment) (Director of ITS & Telematics) services. Our target is to assist in the creation Fiat Group Automobiles SBD of 700 million new mobile connections, whilst Fran Dance Jim Panian stimulating a number of service trials and (BMW ConnectedDrive Senior Manager) and (Principal Engineer) launches in the Automotive, Education and Thomas Krauss (Technology Engineer) Qualcomm Healthcare sectors. We also have a special BMW focus on Smart Cities to support Barcelona Cyrille Ravier becoming the Mobile World Capital. Florian Denzin (Business Development Manager M2M/ About GSMA Connected Car Forum (Director Portfolio Management) Automotive) Cinterion Vodafone Global Enterprise M2M Business The GSMA Connected Car Forum (CCF). Seung Don Vasiliy Suvorov launched in 2011, has successfully established (Deputy Director) (VP of Technology Services) and Serkan a new platform for automakers and mobile KT Arslan (Director Business Development operators to share information and enable joint industry cooperation to resolve barriers Philippe Dubois Automotive) Luxoft to connected car deployment and to improve (R&D Engineer) the speed and take up of telematics and Renault Chikako Tsukada infotainment services. (Manager to Global Business Division) Chris Freil [email protected] NTT DoCoMo To join the forum please email: (Services Standards Manager) [email protected] www.gsma.com Telefonica S.A ©GSMA February 2013 Matt Hatton (Director) Machina

February 2013 | Version 2.0