Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1737–1753, 2019 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1737-2019 © Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Uncertainty quantification of flood mitigation predictions and implications for interventions Koen D. Berends1,2, Menno W. Straatsma3, Jord J. Warmink1, and Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher1 1Department of Marine and Fluvial Systems, Twente Water Centre, University of Twente, P. O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, the Netherlands 2Department of River Dynamics and Inlands Shipping, Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, 2629 HV Delft, the Netherlands 3Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geosciences, University of Utrecht, Princetonlaan 8, 3584 CS Utrecht, the Netherlands Correspondence: K. D. Berends (
[email protected]) Received: 31 October 2018 – Discussion started: 14 November 2018 Revised: 18 June 2019 – Accepted: 19 June 2019 – Published: 13 August 2019 Abstract. Reduction of water levels during river floods is In general, we conclude that the uncertainty of model predic- key in preventing damage and loss of life. Computer mod- tions is not large enough to invalidate model-based interven- els are used to design ways to achieve this and assist in the tion design, nor small enough to neglect altogether. Instead, decision-making process. However, the predictions of com- uncertainty information is valuable in the selection of alter- puter models are inherently uncertain, and it is currently un- native interventions. known to what extent that uncertainty affects predictions of the effect of flood mitigation strategies. In this study, we quantify the uncertainty of flood mitigation interventions on the Dutch River Waal, based on 39 different sources of un- 1 Introduction certainty and 12 intervention designs.