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The Money Market in July 1964

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The Money Market in July 1964 FEDERAL RESERVE RANK OF NEW YORK 147 significant portion of spending on nondurable commodi- support to consumer spending, and some recovery in the ties, particularly food, probably reflects long-established consumption ratio would seem to be a reasonable expecta- habits, and thus such expenditures too arc not likely to tion. Consumer buying plans remain strong, and record show sharp variations as income moves ahead. Neverthe- levels of expenditures on durabics, the most volatile com- less, the increases in disposable income stemming from ponent of the consumer budget, indicate a continued the tax cut can certainly he expected to exert long-run willingness to spend. The Money Market In July The money market remained generally firm in July, In early July, the major finance companies increased though there were some variations in tone during the their offering rates on 30- to 89-day paper by of a per period which reflected mainly changes in reserve pres- cent. Later in the month, the finance companies made two sures on banks in the money centers. The market handled downward adjustments of of a per cent in their rates with facility the heavy financial Ilows associated first on 30- to 89-day paper and lowered their rates on 90- to with the movements of currency around the Independence 239-day paper by of a per cent. Commercial paper Day holiday period and later with the Treasury's ad- dealers also reduced their offering rates by of a per vance refunding and repayment of maturing one-year cent. Bankers' acceptances, with rates unchanged, at- bills. Substantial reserve pressures converged upon the tracted a strong demand, and dealers' portfolios declined major reserve city banks—especially during the second sharply during the latter half of the month. and third statement periods of the month—as these Treasury bill rates rose slightly at the beginning of the banks bore the brunt of the expanded financing needs month. Subsequently, however, a considerable reinvest- of Government securities dealers that stemmed from ment demand for bills developed as a by-product of the the Treasury's massive advance refunding. For the most Treasury's advance refunding operation and the pay-down part, however, the money market banks were able to of $2 billion of maturing July 15 bills, and rates moved fill the bulk of their enlarged reserve needs in the Federal lower through midnionth. In the latter part of July, a more funds market, increasing only moderately their borrow- cautious tone emerged in the bill market following the ings from th Federal Reserve Ranks. Subscquently,there Treasury's announcementof the sale of a $1 billion "strip" was a shift in reserves toward thc money center banks, in of hills. Rates moved higher only briefly, however, and part because of a decline in dealer financing needs, and then steadied and edged lower once more. the tone of the money market became somewhat more The market for Government notes and bonds was comfortable. dominated during the month by expectations of, and sub- Against this background, Federal funds traded pre- sequent reactions to, Treasury financing operations. fri the dominantly at 3½ per cent though there was some trading opening days of the period, prices of outstanding Govern- at lower rates on a number of days during the period ment notes and bonds moved narrowly higher in quiet when reserves shifted to the money centers. Similarly, trading as the market awaited word of the Treasury's rates posted by the major New York City banks on new plans. Market reaction to the Treasury's July 8 refunding and renewal call loans to Government securities dealers announcement was quite favorable, and lively trading were generally in a 3¾ to 3Ya per cent range, although ensued as investors adjusted their portfolios in response the rate dipped at times to 334 per cent. Offering rates to the new investment opportunities presented by the for new six- to nine-month time certificates of deposit complex exchange operation. Despite the considerable issued by leading New York City banks ranged from 3.90 expansion in the market supply of intermediate- and per cent to 4 per cent in July. The rates at which three- long-term securities expected to result from the refund- and six-month certificates of deposit traded in the second- ing, market participants remained confident in the out- ary market tended to decline late in the month. look for general stability in interest rates. Contributing 148 MONTIH.Y REVIEW, AUGUST 1964 to the optimistic atmosphcrc in the bond market was the CHANGES IN FACTORS TENDING TO INCREASE OR DECREASE Treasury's statement that it did not contemplate any addi- MEMBER BANK RESERVES, JULY 1964 tional Government financing in the longer term maturity to mi1lion of dullIlr.9; (4.) denoteSincteise, (—) dccicasc in cncc.o rctervca area during the remainder of the calendar year. After the close of the refunding subscription books on July 16, a Daily uieruçei—a,ekndtd more tone for time in the market for Cautious emerged a Fatcr Ntt notes and concern July July July July .fuly Chfl9Q$ outstanding bonds, partly reflecting 1 8 15 22 29 over the implications of the widening differentials between Oprnatlna lvu,snitioni domestic and foreign interest rates. After a slight decline — 1'n,a,iiry op,rat1ua 4— II + 13 + + + 1;4 in however, demand somewhat and 344p Hu'rcOu2 —318 + 4 — + 66 — — 510 prices, expanded Currn,ncy In clrculslIOu — 41 — liii —- 133 4. 190 .4. 155 —240 notes and bonds moved corn aM rorolun aoaot .... — 1 + -- 11 — 4 — 2 7 prices of outstanding generally (lth,,T d,pultn. aanl oshor ÷ the remainder of the month, in favor- I'*tl,.iI l4i,;i:Tva ftGUtat0 higher during partly (uet)l 4- — + 01 4. 7.s ÷ II 4-178 able reaction to the Treasury's July 29 announcement of — — — — — 1%.4u1 13.9 SSII ÷ 701; OW 4I billion the terms of its $4 August refinancing. (For details, Dlrert redelaJ Rutrve cr4dlt see tran,aclon. below.) Opei n,,,krt u2,t74*ll In other sectors of the bond market, of rr.On.qo; ny aelr,. prices corporate Guvrrtaic,D1 uoc3irIOlflO .. + l9 +392 — 143 — c.36 — 31 — so and bonds were little in B,.ak,T? 91&JC61 .. — 2 — I — I — 2 — 9 tax-exempt changed early July. 2tcuFCfl0fl arccmrn1,I In the latter of the bond Gu,rrrncrut ut'.'jrl1I.9 . + 18 + 1411 + 154 — 24 ÷ 261 4-161 part month, corporate prices I1e,kr,r. ecce3tncc. .. — 1 1. SI -.. 22 — 30 .4. 13 — 13 rose when demand while of Mrinb,r bask torrowInga ... — 11 -1- 4 + 137 — aol — expanded somewhat, prices lIthr mann. d1zun1n, end tax-exempt bonds held generally steady. wlvuncni Total + .4- 64 + 143 —1.233 .4.. 141 + 18 bankreierneI . Mimbur — — BANK RESERVES WIUi Fcdrrai flenorve lligmkj. + 118 -4-312 13 .. 54 179 —455 Caulu $1101180 no ,654911,l ... + 50 — 382 + 225 — II ÷ ot 4- 45 — — 113 — draineda net of million in member Total rinervr,t 4- lI. 4(1 ± 3 410 Market factors $67 Lifeet of chanco In rulr,d — — bank reserves over the five weeks ended July 29. The re,er,,n 71 .4.. 93 4- 2t + 133 4. 859 51 — —233 23 — bulk of these drains occurred in the first two weeks of Excela N$VN 4— 111 .4.34! -4— usual contraction in float at the Deity a,eratn kel of mcmbrr the period, rcllccting the bunk: end of June as well as the movement of currency into Hnrnl,rron, fl03eF118 !6&I1k4 221 Lt.2 4(34 159 1?t 2.3511 I2xnc,a ren-vio4 4113 301 572 36011 circulation around the Independence Day holiday. In the Free reoenenl 131 24 112 118 121 11211 week ended July 22, in contrast, float rose to its mid- o(o: Because of roundLn. figures do not necesosrily tdd to totals. month peak, currency flowed back into the banking sys- Includes cltange in Treasury currency and cash. IncludCO 555515denomInated In foreign currencies. tem, and member bank required reserves declined, partly I May also include redemptions. I These figumnn are e4timatCd. rellecting thc redemption on July 15 of the last of the II Averne for five week.ended July 29. 11*1. Treasury's quarterly series of one-year bills. Subsequently, as float fell off sharply toward the end of July, market factors again absorbed reserves. THE COVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET These July fluctuations in market factors were off- set on balance by the effects of System open market In the market for Government notes and bonds, prices operations. Thus, System Account transactions released of most outstanding issues edged irregularly higher at the reserves in early July, absorbed reserves over the follow- beginning of July. A moderate investment demand favor- ing two weeks, and again provided reserves in the final ing the 2½ per cent wartime issues was in evidence; how- week of the period. Over the five-week period as a whole, ever, activity tended to be restrained, as participants the weekly average of System outright holdings of Gov- awaited announcement of the Treasury's July financing ernment securities declined by $70 million, while average plans. Although uncertainty prevailed over the nature of holdings of Government securities under repurchase agree- a possible debt operation in July, confidence remained ments increased by $161 million. Average total System high in the underlying near-term stability of interest rates. holdings of bankers' acceptances fell by $22 million. From After the close of business on July 8, the Treasury Wednesday, June 24, through Wednesday,July 29, System announced that the further improvement of its cash posi- holdings of Government securities maturing in less than one tion made unnecessary any immediate substantial cash year rose by $281 million, while holdings maturing in borrowing.
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