• Abstract and Figures
• Public Full-text

Introduction Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Croatia after the Assassinations: Chances for New Reform Dynamics SWP Comments Tomislav Maršić Croatia is under shock: Two commissioned murders, with obvious political links to the Mafia, have been carried out in quick succession on the streets of the country. Today, some eight years after the beginning of the “second transformation” during which the country shifted from a semi-autocratic presidential system to parliamentary democ- racy, and shortly before the conclusion of negotiations on Croatia’s accession to the EU, nobody would have reckoned with this kind of Mafia-style score-settling. The resulting wave of indignation will force the Croatian government, after years of passivity, to take the offensive and to adopt substantial reforms. This task requires nothing less than the political neutralization of influential figures. These individuals, who established excel- lent links to the political class during the war, are still present in some “coordinating points of power.” Yet, part of this pressure for reform comes from the outside too: Shortly before the publication of the EU Commission’s progress report, the government had to demonstrate its good faith. It removed the Interior and Justice Ministers, in order to allay French, German and Dutch reservations regarding Croatia’s accession to the EU. As expected, the tenor of the Commission’s managed to convince the Commission progress report was mainly positive. It College to adopt the schedule he had certifies Croatia’s good progress in all elaborated: Subject to the realization of all fields. All the same, one cause for com- conditions, Croatia’s accession negotiations plaint remains the continuing politiciza- could be gradually concluded by the end tion of the judicial system, as well as its of 2009. This positive dynamic is being dis- lack of devoted personnel and financial rupted by two countervailing developments: resources. They also criticise the limited On the one hand, a group of member states reform ambition in general. This has now fronted by the German government persists fundamentally changed with the introduc- in tying the current enlargement round to tion of personnel changes and reform the successful introduction of the Lisbon initiatives. Not least because of this, the Treaty. Even if this reservation does not Enlargement Commissioner, Olli Rehn, win out before the ratification of Croatia’s Tomislav Maršić is a doctoral fellow in the EU Integration division of SWP SWP Comments 28 November 2008 1 accession treaty—presently expected at the the government and representatives of earliest in spring 2010—the consolidation Zagreb’s city council are suspected of crisis is serious and a solution not in sight. involvement in such corruption. The The second pressure emanates from the disgust of large sections of the population outgoing Slovenian government, which has at the unassailability of influential figures once more blocked the opening and closure in business and politics, whose offences of negotiation chapters, in pursuit of its are often open secrets, is manifested in own priorities: It is seeking to force access a general resigned dissatisfaction with to international waters following a bilateral politics. Until now, the investigations disagreement with Croatia. against those suspected of such encroach- In this situation, the murders in Zagreb’s ments have mostly petered out. At the end town centre realized something of a worst- of the nineties, a spectacular trial against case scenario, since they dented Croatia’s several suspected bosses began, only to image as a problem-free and readily absorb- spectacularly fail a few years later. The able EU candidate. The assassinations are coalition government under the Social redolent of those mistakes made in con- Democrats, which was in office between nection with the premature admission of 2000 and 2003, refrained from proceeding Bulgaria and Romania to the EU. against the exponents of Mafia structures. For his part, the present Prime Minister, Ivo Sanader, pursues a policy of EU-appease- The past handling of ment, supposed to lead to accession as organized crime quickly as possible, but giving low priority After years of calm, how could these acts to a fundamental reform process. Sanader’s of violence occur? The roots of today’s influence was repeatedly noticeable in the organized crime in Croatia go back to the past when courts but also Parliament nineties. At that time, external circum- reversed particular decisions that could stances like the war and the international have possibly endangered Croatia’s EU arms embargo, as well as internal factors, ambitions. But the drafts for institutional like the process of system-change and the reform -now tackled- remained on the weakness of the opposition, fostered the Ministry of the Interior’s backburner for rise of dubious individuals within state two years. The department for the fight structures. For the most part, these persons against organized crime, founded on the were able to quickly obtain the military insistence of the EU, existed only on paper equipment urgently needed by the govern- for almost a year. ment. Austria’s recent extradition to Both the new Minister of the Interior, Croatia of General Vladimir Zagorec, a Tomislav Karamarko, and his police chief, key figure in this milieu and former arma- have publicly voiced the opinion that the ments agent, unleashed a fever of activity police in Croatia have been politically con- in Zagreb’s underworld. Even though the trolled since the war at the beginning of assassins have since been identified and the nineties. Sanader himself had sought several of the figures dealing with the to retain Karamarko’s predecessor, even logistics behind the murders have been though this individual had been vehe- apprehended, it is still unclear who com- mently criticized, not least when he had to missioned the killing and if there is a cor- reverse a politically motivated appointment relation between the two. to the head of police under public pressure. These killings appear to mark the begin- After the first murder, the head of govern- ning of a sad culmination in a whole series ment finally gave way to public indignation of violent encroachments against investiga- that might shortly have been directed tive journalists and business managers against himself. He dismissed the unques- working on corruption cases. Members of tioningly loyal Ministers of the Interior SWP Comments 28 November 2008 2 and of Justice in an apparently panic cooperation are being extended. The first decision. With hindsight though, it has results of these measures could already be proved to be very effective: The new mem- seen during the inquiries into the murders. bers of cabinet, Tomislav Karamarko and While the political will behind the Ivan Šimonović, a confidant of President depoliticization of the judiciary seems to Mesić and a candidate of the opposition be present for the moment, systematic Social-Democrats respectively, guarantee changes require a long-term engagement. the Premier support from his erstwhile In the past, during politically sensitive legal political rivals. Karamarko, who played an proceedings, irregularities have occurred important role in the search for the fugitive repeatedly. This was vividly illustrated by General, Ante Gotovina, and his principal the recent termination of the trial against financier, can already take credit for suc- Branimir Glavaš, who is suspected of war cessfully reforming the secret service. crimes. This and similar cases have shown Šimonović, the new Justice Minister and that the long arm of politics reaches deep a professor of law to boot, used to be into the legal system. Judicial reform, Croatia’s representative at the UN. effected as a part of the accession negotia- tions, already contains measures including a more transparent appointment process The Range of Reforms for judges. Until now however—and this The two new ministers are now facing the is a central point of EU criticism—these enormous challenge of achieving tangible reforms have not been implemented with results in the struggle against organized due emphasis. crime and corruption—a challenge which, Widespread personnel changes on all up to now, had been tackled only half- levels have taken place in the police force heartedly. Broadly speaking, the task is in particular. The strategic position of twofold: on the one hand corrupt officials police chief has been assumed by Vladimir have to be expelled from public office, and Faber, who gained an excellent reputation on the other the administration needs to in Osijek during the difficult investigations be professionalized, and cleared of political against Branimir Glavaš. The new head of cliques and clientelistic patronage. The the Ministry of the Interior has exchanged measures decided most recently indicate several medium and higher police cadres, that this need for reform with respect to many of whom had been hired according to institutions, personnel and policies is now political criteria after the inauguration of increasingly being taken into account. the HDZ-led government in 2003. In the area of institutional reform, for In the policy realm, the anti-mafia legal example, the anti-mafia package will package will strengthen the legal frame- bolster current changes in the judiciary. work in the struggle against organized An improvement of the witness protection crime. According to Prime Minister programme has thus been decided upon, Sanader, this set of laws also has “backup giving form to a long-running demand. in the budget.” The package facilitates the Good progress has also been made in the confiscation of suspects’ property by the executive field with the police being made authorities. It also allows for the tapping of to work more effectively and professionally. communications as regards those arrested With the institutional reorganization of the from the milieu. The police’s authority department for the fight against organized and its access to data have been decisively crime, which has been placed under the expanded by the new law.

Load more

  4

Copy Link