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Emissions Standards Feasibility Interim Joint Technical Assessment Report: Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards for Model Years 2017-2025 Office of Transportation and Air Quality U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of International Policy, Fuel Economy, and Consumer Programs National Highway Traffic Safety Administration U.S. Department of Transportation California Air Resources Board California Environmental Protection Agency September 2010 2017-2025 Technical Assessment Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................... v 1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1 Purpose of this Report ........................................................................................................ 1-1 1.2 National Program for Model Years 2012 - 2016 ................................................................ 1-2 1.3 Standards for 2017 and Beyond ......................................................................................... 1-4 1.4 Future Technical Work and Analysis for the Joint Federal Rulemaking ........................... 1-5 Chapter 1 References ................................................................................................................... 1-7 2 Technical Input from Stakeholders .............................................................. 2-1 2.1 Overview of Stakeholder Outreach Process ....................................................................... 2-1 2.2 Input from Various Stakeholder Groups ............................................................................ 2-1 2.2.1 Automobile Original Equipment Manufacturers ..................................................... 2-1 2.2.2 Automotive Suppliers .............................................................................................. 2-8 2.2.3 Non-Governmental Environmental Organizations .................................................. 2-9 2.2.4 State and Local Government Organizations .......................................................... 2-10 2.2.5 Infrastructure Providers ......................................................................................... 2-11 2.2.6 Labor Unions ......................................................................................................... 2-11 Chapter 2 References ................................................................................................................. 2-13 3 Technology, Cost, Effectiveness and Lead-time Assessment ...................... 3-1 3.1 What technologies did the Agencies Consider? ................................................................. 3-1 3.2 How did the Agencies Determine the Costs and Effectiveness of Each of These Technologies? .............................................................................................................................. 3-1 3.2.1 How are Cost and Effectiveness Estimates Different from the 2012-2016 Rule? ... 3-1 3.2.2 Costs from Tear-down Studies................................................................................. 3-2 3.2.3 Costs of HEV, PHEV, EV, and FCEV .................................................................... 3-4 3.2.4 Mass Reduction Impacts and Costs ......................................................................... 3-7 3.2.5 Indirect Cost Multipliers ........................................................................................ 3-11 3.2.6 Cost Adjustment to 2008 Dollars ........................................................................... 3-12 3.2.7 Costs Effects due to Learning ................................................................................ 3-13 3.2.8 Cooled EGR Cost and Effectiveness ..................................................................... 3-13 3.2.9 HEV Effectiveness ................................................................................................. 3-14 3.2.10 Ongoing Vehicle Simulation to Update Effectiveness .......................................... 3-14 3.3 Vehicle Manufacturer Lead Time .................................................................................... 3-15 3.4 Other Technologies Assessed ........................................................................................... 3-19 3.4.1 Types of engine technologies that improve fuel economy and reduce CO2 emissions include the following: ........................................................................................................... 3-19 3.4.2 Types of transmission technologies considered include: ....................................... 3-22 3.4.3 Types of vehicle technologies considered include: ............................................... 3-23 3.5 Technology Packages in OMEGA ................................................................................... 3-27 Chapter 3 References ................................................................................................................. 3-29 ii 2017-2025 Technical Assessment 4 Infrastructure Assessment ............................................................................. 4-1 4.1 Overview ............................................................................................................................ 4-1 4.2 Electric Vehicle Infrastructure ........................................................................................... 4-2 4.2.1 DOE Charging Infrastructure Projects Underway ................................................... 4-2 4.2.2 Home Charging Adequacy ....................................................................................... 4-6 4.2.3 Charging System Cost.............................................................................................. 4-9 4.2.4 Battery End-of-Life Value Assessment and Secondary Use Applications ............ 4-12 4.2.5 Potential Impacts on the Electric Utility and Distribution Infrastructure .............. 4-12 4.2.6 Voluntary Standards to Support PHEV & EV Infrastructure ................................ 4-14 4.3 Hydrogen Infrastructure Overview .................................................................................. 4-17 4.3.1 Status Today........................................................................................................... 4-17 4.3.2 Prospects for Cost and Technology Improvement ................................................. 4-21 4.3.3 Infrastructure Rollout Strategy .............................................................................. 4-21 4.3.4 Policies and Partnerships ....................................................................................... 4-22 4.4 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 4-24 Chapter 4 References ................................................................................................................. 4-25 5 Incentives and Flexibilities ............................................................................ 5-1 5.1 Overview of Existing Incentives and Flexibilities in the MYs 2012-2016 Program ......... 5-1 5.2 Potential Credit Programs, Incentives, and Other Flexibilities for 2017 and Later ........... 5-4 5.3 Input on Non-regulatory Incentives from Stakeholders ..................................................... 5-7 Chapter 5 References ................................................................................................................. 5-10 6 Analysis of Scenario Costs and Impacts ....................................................... 6-1 6.1 Context ............................................................................................................................... 6-1 6.2 Analytic Approach ............................................................................................................. 6-1 6.3 Development of Technology Pathways .............................................................................. 6-6 6.3.1 Model Years Considered.......................................................................................... 6-6 6.3.2 Scenario Stringencies Assessed ............................................................................... 6-7 6.3.3 Technology Pathways Considered ........................................................................... 6-8 6.4 Other Key Inputs to the Analysis ..................................................................................... 6-11 6.5 Results of Analysis ........................................................................................................... 6-13 6.6 PHEV and EV Battery Cost Sensitivity Assessment ....................................................... 6-28 Chapter 6 References ................................................................................................................. 6-30 7 Other Key Factors .......................................................................................... 7-1 7.1 Potential Impacts on the Economy and Employment ........................................................ 7-1 7.1.1 Impacts on Auto Manufacturers, Suppliers, and Auto Industry Employment ......... 7-1 7.1.2 Impacts on Vehicle Sales ......................................................................................... 7-2 7.1.3 Summary .................................................................................................................
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