Indian-administered | No 5 | October to November 2007

INDIAN-ADMINISTERED KASHMIR | Trends in Conflict and Cooperation

No significant changes have been observed in Indian-administered Kashmir in the past two months. On 26 November, the cease-fire along the Line of Control (LoC) reached its fourth year with the truce still holding, apart from a few isolated incidents of violations. At the same time, Indo-Pakistani peace talks are continuing although at a slow pace. From 18-19 October, the two countries met to discuss conventional and nuclear confidence building measures, and on 22 October they held their second meeting of the Joint Anti-Terror Mechanism. During these meetings, both countries renewed their commitment to the cease-fire but failed to make any progress on the contentious issues of Kashmir and the Siachen glacier. India makes the current instability in Pakistan responsible for the slow progress in the peace process, while Pakistan claims that the peace process does not advance because of India’s inflexibility. Nevertheless, according to Pakistani officials, the back-channel diplomacy on the peace process between India and Pakistan continues despite Pakistan’s domestic problems. Pakistan’s ability to engage in foreign politics has indeed been limited in the past weeks due to its internal crisis. After the declaration of emergency rule on 3 November, the newly constituted Supreme Court validated Musharraf’s re-election as president on 23 November. Whatever the result of the general elections in January will be, Pakistan’s policy towards Kashmir is not expected to change significantly. Even if the uncertainty over Pakistan’s future leadership does make it more difficult for India to negotiate, India has also shown little flexibility in advancing the peace process and has yet to deliver on some of its promises, such as the adherence to a “zero-tolerance” policy towards human rights violations and the implementation of the recommendations of the working groups set up under the Indian-sponsored roundtable conferences on Kashmir. Among other things, these working groups had recommended the revocation of draconian anti-terrorist legislation and unconditional dialog with militant groups. A fifth working group set up under the roundtable conference, tasked with the controversial issue of center-state relations, has so far failed to reach a consensus and to come forward with clear recommendations. The up-coming state elections (expected in 2008) have affected the behavior and public positioning of major political parties and the Kashmiri separatists. The tone between the different contestants has become increasingly hostile. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), a major ally of Kashmir’s coalition government, continues to publicly denounce its coalition partner Indian National Congress (INC) for lack of cooperation and coordination and has threatened to quit the government on several occasions. Nevertheless, despite the deepening rift between the PDP and the INC, the opposition party National Conference (NC) refutes speculations of an electoral alliance with the INC. At the same time, not only the separatists but also leading pro-Indian parties have capitalized on Kashmiri grievances to gain additional votes by demanding demilitarization and an end to human rights violations, and making blurred suggestions for self-rule and autonomy. Among the pro-India camp, it’s the NC which is at the forefront of anti-India campaigning in Kashmir. The NC’s patron and former Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah warned the Indian government on 21 October of another 1990-like rebellion in Kashmir if human rights abuses continue unabated. And again on 19 November, Farooq said that continuing human rights abuses by the Indian Army in the state have forced his party to rethink Kashmir's accession to the Indian union in 1947. While Syed Ali Shah Geelani from the hardline faction of the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) is repeatedly placed under house arrest, there have been reports that talks between New Delhi and the moderate faction of the APHC might resume at the end of the year. This would raise the profile of the moderate faction of APHC, which has lost significant ground to hardliners due to the break-down of talks. Talks between the two sides had stalled after the moderate APHC had refused to participate in the roundtable conference organized by India in April. Possibly as a consequence of their mutual rapprochement, the moderate faction of the APHC even indicated that it might participate in state elections provided that India implements the four-point formula advanced by Pakistan. Against this backdrop and considering the fact that the hardline APHC faction has announced a full-out boycott of the polls, a re-unification of the two Hurriyat fractions prior to the elections is illusionary. In terms of international engagement to resolve the Kashmir issue, a Kashmir conference was hosted at the House of Commons in London from 28-29 November. A seven-point resolution adopted by the end of the conference highlighted the importance of the right to self-determination, demilitarization of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), an inclusive dialog and the revocation of draconian laws. The conference was attended by mainstream parties from J&K and the moderate faction of the APHC. FAST Update | Indian-administered Kashmir | No 5 | October to November 2007

In a positive development, on 21 October Kashmiri Hindus or “Pandits” celebrated Dussehra festival, which marks the victory of Lord Rama over the evil Ravana, in Srinagar after a gap of 20 years. Senior separatist leader Shabir Shah was present when a group of Pandits set ablaze an effigy of Ravana at a stadium in Srinagar. Also positive in terms of economic development is that India and Pakistan have cleared nine out of 14 proposed items for trade between the two divided parts of Kashmir through the LoC. The items to be exported from Srinagar to Muzaffarabad include Kashmiri carpets, shawls, furniture and wood carving items, fruits, spices, etc.

On 8 October, the United Jihad Council, a conglomerate of different militant groups, announced a three-day cease-fire from 12 to 14 October, to facilitate peaceful Eid celebrations at the end of Ramadan. The announcement was widely welcomed by Kashmiri separatists and even some of the pro-Indian political parties. However, believing that militants might use the cease-fire to re-assemble their strengths, the Indian government refused to reciprocate the offer. According to security officials, the levels of violence in J&K have decreased by 40% (60% in Srinagar city) compared to last year despite continuing efforts of infiltration from across the LoC. At the same time, army officials estimate the number of militants in J&K at only 800 (half of last year) while maintaining Relative Forceful Events by Year that several of the active militants (around 60%) are foreigners. It is difficult to verify whether these figures are accurate. It can, however, be noted that recent militant activity has primarily come from Hizbul (mostly made up of Kashmiris), Lashker-e-Toiba (predominantly foreigners) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (predominantly foreigners). Data collected by FAST International and South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) confirm the trend of declining militancy-related violence and fatalities compared to previous years (see graph). Despite these positive trends, Indian officials and security personnel persistently reject claims for troop reduction. The demand for demilitarization has resounding support in the Kashmir Valley, even from among the pro-India mainstream parties, given the high presence of Indian troops in J&K (approx. 700,000 Source: FAST event data troops). India’s inflexible stance on the issue of demilitarization appears to undercut the work of a committee set up in spring to look into the issue of demilitarization. The committee had been set up by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to avert the PDP from leaving the coalition government over the issue of demilitarization. To demonstrate some level of goodwill, Defense Minister A. K. Anthony announced on 27 October that top priority had been given in getting security forces to vacate the government infrastructure in Kashmir by 30 November. Security forces subsequently vacated many, although not all schools, hospitals and colleges in the Kashmir Valley. Instead they were shifted to alternative places. It is mostly the paramilitary forces and the police, which continue to occupy government buildings. Claims by Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad in mid-October that no innocent persons had been killed in custody in the past 10 months were quickly refuted by separatists. Despite decreasing militant violence, there has been no real let-up in human rights violations committed by security forces and militants. The most prominent cases of human rights violations during the reporting period were the shooting of a teacher by Indian troops in Kupwara on 19 October and the killing of a baker on 17 November in Kulgam by the Rashtriya Rifles. The heavy presence of security forces in civilian areas, draconian laws and widespread impunity are all factors contributing to this poor human rights record. On 18 October, the United Jihad Council signed a declaration not to use anti-personnel mines following a visit by the International Campaign to Ban Landmines.

No significant developments on Kashmir are expected in the future. As seen in last years, militant violence is likely to decrease during the winter months. Indo-Pakistani talks might gain new momentum after the general elections in Pakistan although no major break-through on Kashmir is expected in the coming months. Political violence, militancy, hostility and alliance-building among the major parties might rise before and during the state elections. Due to an election boycott by (hardline) separatists and India’s refusal to engage in unconditional talks with militants and hardliners, an end to violence in Kashmir is not in sight.

Contact FAST International is the early warning program of swisspeace, FAST International covering 25 countries/regions in Africa, Asia and Europe. Based in Country Team: Indian-administered Kashmir Bern, Switzerland, the program is funded and utilized by an Sonnenbergstrasse 17 international consortium of development agencies, including the 3000 Bern 7 Austrian Development Agency (ADA), the Canadian International Switzerland Development Agency (CIDA), the Swedish International Development [email protected] Cooperation Agency (Sida) and the Swiss Agency for Development and www.swisspeace.org Cooperation (SDC).