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The Economics of Climate Change in the Caribbean – Summary Report 2011 1

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The Economics of Climate Change in the Caribbean – Summary Report 2011 1 The Economics of Climate Change in the Caribbean – Summary Report 2011 1 LIMITED LC/CAR/L.299 September 2011 ORIGINAL: ENGLISH THE ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CARIBBEAN UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago The Economics of Climate Change in the Caribbean – Summary Report 2011 2 Notes and explanations of symbols: The following symbols have been used in this study: A full stop (.) is used to indicate decimals n.a. is used to indicated that data are not available The use of a hyphen (-) between years, for example, 2010-2019, signifies an annual average for the calendar years involved, including the beginning and ending years, unless otherwise specified. The word “dollar” refers to United States dollars, unless otherwise specified. The term “billion” is taken to refer to a thousand million. The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. The Economics of Climate Change in the Caribbean – Summary Report 2011 3 CONTENTS Notes and explanations of symbols:......................................................................................................2 Contents ...........................................................................................................................................3 List of Tables ........................................................................................................................................8 List of Figures.....................................................................................................................................11 Chapter I. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................12 Bibliography ...........................................................................................................................................13 Chapter II. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE CARIBBEAN...15 Introduction.............................................................................................................................................15 A. IPCC Scenarios ..................................................................................................................................15 1. The A-family: A group of high-emissions scenarios ......................................................................16 2. The B- family: Relatively low emissions scenarios........................................................................16 B. The Caribbean context........................................................................................................................16 1. Prospective changes in climatology for the Caribbean ...................................................................17 Bibliography ...........................................................................................................................................27 Chapter III. THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR ........................................................................................................................................29 A. Agriculture and climate change .........................................................................................................29 1. Domestic agriculture.......................................................................................................................31 2. Export agriculture ...........................................................................................................................32 3. Food security...................................................................................................................................33 C. Historical impact of extreme events on Caribbean agriculture ..........................................................33 D. Approach to estimating the economic impact of climate change.......................................................34 E. Results ................................................................................................................................................35 1. Export agriculture ...........................................................................................................................35 2. Domestic agriculture.......................................................................................................................36 3. Fisheries ..........................................................................................................................................37 4. Impact of extreme events ................................................................................................................37 5. Summary impacts............................................................................................................................38 F. Climate change adaptation strategies..................................................................................................39 1. Water management .............................................................................................................................40 2. Protected agriculture ...........................................................................................................................40 The Economics of Climate Change in the Caribbean – Summary Report 2011 4 3. Land distribution and management.....................................................................................................40 4. Research and development..................................................................................................................41 5. Climate change issues streamlined into planning ...............................................................................41 6. Climate sensitive farming systems......................................................................................................41 7. Increased awareness and communication ...........................................................................................41 G. CONCLUSION..............................................................................................................................42 Bibliography ...........................................................................................................................................43 CHAPTER IV. THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE COASTAL AND MARINE ENVIRONMENT................................................................................................45 Introduction.............................................................................................................................................45 A. Changing climate: Implications for the Caribbean ............................................................................46 B. Approach to estimating the economic impact ....................................................................................50 C. Results ................................................................................................................................................51 1. Current valuation of coral reef and mangrove ecosystems .............................................................51 2. Economic valuation of losses from coastal lands and waters due to climate change .....................51 3. Impact of sea-level rise and extreme events on human settlements................................................54 D. Adaptation strategies..........................................................................................................................56 E. Conclusion..........................................................................................................................................57 Bibliography ...........................................................................................................................................59 CHAPTER V. THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HUMAN HEALTH .......................................................................................................................................................63 A. Climate change and human health .....................................................................................................63 1. Climate-sensitive diseases in the Caribbean ...................................................................................66 (i) Vector-borne diseases ....................................................................................................................66 (ii) Waterborne and food-borne diseases ............................................................................................68 2. Other conditions that could be impacted by climate change...........................................................70 C. Approach to estimating climate change impact..................................................................................71 1. Methods available for estimating the effects of climate change on health .....................................71 2. Dose-response approach to projecting climate change impacts......................................................72 D. Results................................................................................................................................................72 1. Dengue fever...................................................................................................................................72
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