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Electric Trucks 2018-2028 Table of Contents Electric Trucks 2018-2028 Table of Contents © IDTechEx Ltd except company literature which remains the copyright of the companies in question. IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx, Inc. IDTechEx GmbH IDTechEx Japan Swaffham Bulbeck 24 Thorndike Street, Berlin Tokyo Suite 1A, Cambridge, MA Cambridge, CB25 0NW Germany Japan 02141 United Kingdom Contact Leandri Wilke +81 90 5566 1533 United States Contact [email protected] Contact [email protected] +49 351 65 888 316 [email protected] +44 1223 813703 +1 617 577 7890 The rights of IDTechEx to be identified as the author of this work have been asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. DISCLAIMER The facts set out in this publication are obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable. However, we accept no legal liability of any kind for the publication contents, nor any information contained therein nor conclusions drawn from it by any party. IDTechEx accept no responsibility for the consequences of any actions resulting from the information in this report. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publishers. Designed, produced, and typeset by IDTechEx Ltd. www.IDTechEx.com/research 1806A Contents 1. Executive Summary Error! Bookmark not defined. 1.1. Purpose and scope of this report Error! Bookmark not defined. 1.2. Megatrends affected by and affecting EV markets Error! Bookmark not defined. 1.3. Social megatrends red. Technological megatrends blue Error! Bookmark not defined. 1.4. The end game is not as popularly portrayed Error! Bookmark not defined. 1.5. Electrification roadmap Error! Bookmark not defined. 1.6. Who is being disrupted? Error! Bookmark not defined. 1.7. Upcoming restrictions for commercial vehicles Error! Bookmark not defined. 1.8. Specialty vehicles Error! Bookmark not defined. 1.9. More carrot, more stick Error! Bookmark not defined. 1.10. Pure electric vehicle adoption dynamics Error! Bookmark not defined. 1.11. Benefits from truck and van electrification Error! Bookmark not defined. 1.12. Pure electric vehicle adoption dynamics Error! Bookmark not defined. 1.13. Nikola fuel cell hybrid or Tesla battery truck? Error! Bookmark not defined. 1.14. Need for a systems approach Error! Bookmark not defined. 1.15. Limited 48V opportunity with delivery trucks/ vans Error! Bookmark not defined. 2. Introduction Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.1. Urban pollution Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.2. Emissions cause much more injury than previously realised Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.3. CO2 emission limits enacted worldwide to 2025 Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.4. Why go electric? Drivers of truck electrification Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.5. GHG emissions from transport, EU-28, 2015 Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.6. Final energy consumption in the EU-28 (mtoe), 2015 Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.7. CO2 emission from road transport, EU-28, 2015 Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.8. CO2 emission from road transport Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.9. Projected global freight activity and GHG emissions from 2015 to 2050 Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.10. The state of the art in alternative drivetrains Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.11. Market for urban goods transport grows rapidly Error! Bookmark not defined. Ltd © IDTechEx 2.12. Market for e-commercially transported goods Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.13. Share of US grocery market Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.14. The worldwide freight transport industry Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.15. Euro 6 emissions standard adoption around the world Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.16. Fuel emissions policies around the world Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.17. Electric trucks and vans cut pollution faster than cars Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.18. EU initiatives to offset additional powertrain weight Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.19. Fuel saving technology areas Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.20. The easy way out of emissions control: aerodynamics Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.21. Aerodynamics: Shell Airflow Starship Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.22. Other avenues for fuel efficiency: lightweighting Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.23. Is retrofitting an economically viable option? Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.24. Electric powertrain options for trucks Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.25. Start-stop electrification and other fuel efficiency measures Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.26. Maxwell's Ultracapacitor-Based Engine Start Module Error! Bookmark not defined. 3. Classifications of trucks and vans Error! Bookmark not defined. 3.1. The worldwide freight transport industry Error! Bookmark not defined. 3.2. Value chain rewritten Error! Bookmark not defined. 3.3. Different segments of goods transportation by land Error! Bookmark not defined. 3.4. Types of popular on-road truck Error! Bookmark not defined. 3.5. Existing truck classifications Error! Bookmark not defined. 4. Trucks and vans in the EU Error! Bookmark not defined. 4.1. The worldwide freight transport industry - EU Error! Bookmark not defined. 4.2. Pollutant emissions have been slashed to near-zero levels Error! Bookmark not defined. 4.3. Main truck brands in Europe Error! Bookmark not defined. 4.4. Truck sales in EU-28 by size and brand, 2016 Error! Bookmark not defined. 4.5. Vans in Europe Error! Bookmark not defined. 4.6. Vans in EU-28 – market share by brand, fuel and sales, 2016 Error! Bookmark not defined. 4.7. Best-selling vans in EU-28, 2016 Error! Bookmark not defined. Ltd © IDTechEx 4.8. CO2 emissions for vans in Europe by brand, 2009-2016 Error! Bookmark not defined. 4.9. CO2 emissions for vans in Europe by country, 2016 Error! Bookmark not defined. 5. Trucks and vans in the US Error! Bookmark not defined. 5.1. The worldwide freight transport industry - USA Error! Bookmark not defined. 5.2. US truck population by vehicle type Error! Bookmark not defined. 5.3. HDV market share in the US Error! Bookmark not defined. 5.4. Average Daily Truck Traffic on the National Highway System, 2012 Error! Bookmark not defined. 5.5. Industry issues according to US truckers Error! Bookmark not defined. 5.6. Average truck age in the US Error! Bookmark not defined. 5.7. Alternative fuel choices for trucks in the US Error! Bookmark not defined. 5.8. The cost of trucking in the United States Error! Bookmark not defined. 5.9. Average U.S. On-Highway Diesel Prices, 2008 – 2016 Error! Bookmark not defined. 5.10. Repair & maintenance, another running cost for US truckers Error! Bookmark not defined. 5.11. Nobody wants to be a truck driver in the US Error! Bookmark not defined. 5.12. The solution: electric, autonomous trucks? Error! Bookmark not defined. 6. Trucks and vans in Japan Error! Bookmark not defined. 6.1. Truck transport business in Japan Error! Bookmark not defined. 6.2. The number of truck carriers has plateaued Error! Bookmark not defined. 6.3. CO2 emissions from trucks Error! Bookmark not defined. 6.4. Main truck brands in Japan Error! Bookmark not defined. 6.5. Historic truck sales in Japan Error! Bookmark not defined. 6.6. Medium and heavy duty truck sales in Japan Error! Bookmark not defined. 6.7. Large and medium-sized trucks market share Error! Bookmark not defined. 7. Trucks and vans in China Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.1. The worldwide freight transport industry - China Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.2. HDV registrations in China by province, by type, and brand Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.3. Truck engine supplier relationships in China Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.4. Chinese truck joint ventures Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.5. China’s truck market segments Error! Bookmark not defined. Ltd © IDTechEx 7.6. China exports its trucks too Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.7. Buses down in China, trucks up Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.8. China's first emissions testing standard for heavy-duty vehicles Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.9. Argonne National Labs Error! Bookmark not defined. 8. Trucks and vans in the ROW Error! Bookmark not defined. 8.1. The worldwide freight transport industry - Russia Error! Bookmark not defined. 8.2. Other markets – MexicoError! Bookmark not defined. 8.3. A visual history of commercial hybrid trucks Error! Bookmark not defined. 9. Light Duty Electric Vehicles Error! Bookmark not defined. 9.1. An industry changing from the ground up Error! Bookmark not defined. 9.2. Last Mile vehicle needs and challenges Error! Bookmark not defined. 9.3. Small vehicles that move the local economy Error! Bookmark not defined. 9.4. Retrofitting of old delivery vans Error! Bookmark not defined. 9.5. Harrod’s electric van Error! Bookmark not defined. 9.6. Functions required Error! Bookmark not defined. 9.7. UPS to transform diesel trucks into electric vehicles Error! Bookmark not defined. 9.8. Deutsche Post DHL runs 5000 StreetScooters Error! Bookmark not defined. 9.9. Nissan e-NV200 Error! Bookmark not defined. 9.10. StreetScooter Error! Bookmark not defined. 9.11. Renault Kangoo Z.E. Error! Bookmark not defined. 9.12. Renault Master Z.E. Error! Bookmark not defined. 9.13. Citröen Berlingo Electric / Peugeot Partner Electric Error! Bookmark not defined. 9.14. LDV/Saic Maxus EV80 Error! Bookmark not defined. 9.15. Iveco Daily Electric Error! Bookmark not defined. 9.16. Mercedes Benz eVito Error! Bookmark not defined. 9.17. Mercedes Benz eSprinter Error! Bookmark not defined. 9.18. Daimler Vision Van Error! Bookmark not defined. 9.19. Volkswagen e-Crafter Error! Bookmark not defined. 9.20. Ford Transit Custom PHEV Error! Bookmark not defined. 9.21. LEVC taxi-based PHEV van Error! Bookmark not defined. Ltd © IDTechEx 9.22. Dongfeng Motor Corporation Error! Bookmark not defined.
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