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Update on Conflict and Diplomacy 16 NOVEMBER 2016–15 FEBRUARY 2017

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Update on Conflict and Diplomacy 16 NOVEMBER 2016–15 FEBRUARY 2017 Update on Conflict and Diplomacy 16 NOVEMBER 2016–15 FEBRUARY 2017 COMPILED BY PAUL KAROLYI This update is a summary of bilateral, multilateral, regional, and international events affecting the Palestinians and the future of the peace process. More than 100 print, wire, television, and online sources providing U.S., Israeli, Arab, and international independent and government coverage of unfolding events are surveyed to compile the quarterly Update. The most relevant sources are cited in JPS’s Chronology section, which tracks events day by day. JPS Chronologies are archived on the JPS website at www.palestine-studies.org. Highlights of the Quarter: Neither the Palestinians nor the Israelis make any effort to resume peace negotiations this quarter. The Palestinians work with the outgoing U.S. admin. on a new UN Security Council (UNSC) res. condemning Israeli settlements; and the Israelis liaise with incoming U.S. pres. Donald Trump on a new regional peace approach to Middle East peace. Before Trump takes office and begins backpedaling on his pledge to move the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, U.S. secy. of state John Kerry lays out 6 principles for a Palestinian-Israeli peace deal, and the French govt. hosts what is touted as an international peace conference in Paris. Meanwhile, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu continues his efforts to marginalize the Palestinian minority and his political opponents in Israel, to placate the right-wing elements of his ruling coalition upset about the evacuation of Amona, an illegal settlement outpost. Settler leaders and their allies in the Knesset use their leverage to pass a sweeping new bill retroactively authorizing illegal settlement outposts. THE PALESTINIAN-ISRAELI allowed the passage of UNSCR 2334 CONFLICT condemning Israel’s illegal settlement-building As protests, random attacks, and resistance by abstaining from the vote. Secy. of State Kerry activities in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and presented his vision for a final peace agreement, Gaza continued to subside, this quarter the and the U.S. also participated in a peace world’s attention turned to Washington, where conference in Paris, which failed to attract outgoing U.S. pres. Barack Obama handed over Israeli support or do anything to alter the status to pres.-elect Trump. Ending mos. of quo. While these moves may have exacerbated speculation about a last-minute, surprise push tensions in the Obama-Netanyahu relationship, on the peace process, the Obama admin. Israel’s govt. appeared content to wait for Journal of Palestine Studies Vol. XLVI, No. 3 (Spring 2017), p. 121, ISSN: 0377-919X; electronic ISSN: 1533-8614. © 2017 by the Institute for Palestine Studies. All rights reserved. Please direct all requests for permission to photocopy or reproduce article content through the University of California Press’s Reprints and Permissions web page, http://www.ucpress.edu/journals.php?p=reprints. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1525/jps.2017.46.3.121. Spring 2017 || 121 Update on Conflict and Diplomacy Trump’s advent to usher in an era of closer U.S. complaints, while the Israeli govt. had U.S.-Israeli relations, as promised by the then done nothing to curb settlement growth. candidate during his campaign. Early in 12/2016, an Israel Army Radio host The Netanyahu govt. continued undermining explicitly asked (12/1) U.S. amb. Shapiro what political opponents, including the Palestinian the Obama admin. would do in the event of a minority, and cracking down on the waning UNSC measure such as the one the Palestinians unrest in the occupied Palestinian territories and their allies had been pursuing throughout (oPt). The Israeli govt. lifted restraints on most of 2016 (see JPS 45 [3] – 46 [2]). settlement growth as soon as Trump took office, Reiterating the admin.’s standard position, and also resumed preliminary efforts to Shapiro stated, “We will always oppose negotiate a prisoner swap with Hamas. unilateral proposals,” prompting speculation about the Obama admin.’s definition of THE END OF THE OBAMA ERA “unilateral.” That same day, unnamed U.S. Trump’s election on 11/8 had little effect on officials told the Associated Press that internal the stream of rumors and leaks alleging that the discussions of a UNSC res. or major policy Obama White House was considering a final speech had died down after Trump’selection policy initiative on the Israeli-Palestinian and that Obama practically ruled out any last- conflict. Prior to the U.S. abstention on the minute effort to avoid another high-profile UNSC vote in 12/2016, senior admin. officials conflict with Netanyahu. would not be drawn out on the specifics of the debate inside the White House. U.S. Abstention at the UNSC U.S. amb. to Israel Dan Shapiro said At the UN, meanwhile, Palestinians and their (11/23) that the admin. remained committed allies were working on a draft res. condemning to a negotiated 2-state solution and Israeli settlement building. The same day that reaffirmed Obama’s view that the status quo, Palestinian Authority (PA) FM Riyad al-Maliki with Israeli settlements gradually consuming confirmed (11/28) that the Palestinians planned more and more Palestinian land, was to submit the measure imminently, Netanyahu “unsustainable.” Secy. Kerry told (11/29) said he expected Obama to oppose any new Women’s Foreign Policy Group conferees UNSC initiative. Res. efforts continued gaining that there was no way to “force-feed” Israelis momentum, however, and not just among the and Palestinians a peace agreement, Palestinians’ closest allies. referencing “other things we can do” to work New Zealand began circulating its own draft toward a 2-state solution. Off the record, res. to other mbrs. of the UNSC in early officials were more forthcoming about 12/2016, the final mo. of its 2-year term on the developments behind the scenes. On 11/16, a council (Jerusalem Post, 12/11). The measure senior White House staff mbr. said that called for a “firm timetable” to return to Obama was weighing several options, negotiations, an end to Israel’s settlement including a major policy speech and support enterprise and alleged Palestinian incitement, for a UNSC res. condemning Israel’s and for preventing either side from setting settlements. The official also noted that the “preconditions” on talks. New Zealand’senvoys Palestinian leadership had taken steps to had raised the possibility of a UNSC res. in reduce alleged incitement in response to 4/2016 and 10/2016 (see JPS 44 [4] and 45 [2]), 122 || Journal of Palestine Studies Update on Conflict and Diplomacy to no avail. This quarter’sactionfollowedona settlement activities; condemning all measures conversation on the subject between FM “aimed at altering the demographic Murray McCully and Kerry in Wellington on composition, character, and status” of the oPt; 11/13, after which McCully met with Jordanian, and calling for “affirmative steps to be taken Palestinian, and Israeli leaders on a trip to the immediately to reverse the negative trends,” region in 11/2016. When news of the New including settlement growth. The UNSC then Zealand draft res. broke on 12/11, Israeli amb. scheduled a vote for 12/22, sparking 24 hours of to the UN Danny Danon condemned the frenzied diplomacy. After the White House and initiative. “New Zealand is leaving the UNSC State Dept. chose not to comment on the draft, and they have a desire to do something,” he several diplomatic sources told NBC News that said. “I told them that we will remain here with the Obama admin. was planning to abstain. the Palestinians after [12/2016], and that it is Netanyahu quickly cleared his schedule to lobby important that everything that is done be the UNSC full-time. He reached out to pres.- constructive and not give the Palestinians elect Trump for help to block the initiative encouragement to go to the international (Trump later issued a statement calling on community rather than talk to us.” Obama to oppose the res. and spoke with The New Zealand initiative encouraged the Egypt’s Pres. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi by phone). Palestinians to make their move. The PA sent Following high-level contacts between Cairo a delegation led by Palestine Liberation and Tel Aviv, 2 unidentified Western diplomats Organization (PLO) secy.-gen. Saeb Erekat to were quoted as stating that the vote had been Washington to discuss the possibility of a indefinitely postponed. One said (12/22) that UNSC res. condemning Israel’s settlement Egypt “caved” to Israeli pressure. Danon, for his enterprise a week after the Brookings Institution part, indicated that the UNSC affair was “not published (12/4) a survey showing that almost yet resolved.” half of the U.S. population would support the Israel’s seeming victory was short-lived. On Obama admin. backing such a res. The 12/23, Reuters reported that 4 UNSC mbrs.— delegation sought to draft a res. the Obama New Zealand, Venezuela, Malaysia, and admin. could get behind and built on a draft Senegal—had given Egypt an ultimatum of that Washington had vetoed in 2/2011, just a few hours: if they didn’tcallforavote according to the Jerusalem Post (see Doc. A4 by 12/23, the report quoted them as saying, the in JPS 40 [3]). Prior to their trip, a Western 4 countries involved reserved the right to diplomat had stated (12/10), “If the Palestinians submit the draft themselves. The Palestinians act wisely and rationally they have a chance.” endorsed the move and reportedly sent a After the Palestinians met with U.S. officials in message to Egypt expressing a “strong sense of Washington on 12/12 and 12/13, however, disappointment” with the postponement. Egypt neither party mentioned the UNSC, and a chose not to call for a vote, and the 4 UNSC State Dept.
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