Second Workshop on the Geology and Hydrocarbon Potential of the South China and Possibilities of Joint Development*

Workshop Report by

C.Y. Li and Mark J. Valencia

October 1983

sdat the East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, 22-26 August 1983; organized by theEnvi- ind Policy Institute of the East-West Center, cosponsored by the ASEAN Council on Pe• ine Committee for Co-ordination of Joint Prospecting for Mineral Resources in Asian ffshore Areas (CCOP), and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission.

CONTENTS

Foreword 1 Introduction 3 Workshop Conclusions and Recommendations 5 Offshore Oil and Gas Development and Potential in Areas Related to the .5 Marine Geology and Geophysics of the South China Sea 6 Implementation of the SEATAR Program 6 Joint Development 7 Cooperation among ASCOPE, CCOP, IOC, and EAPI/EWC 8 Summary of Presentations and Discussions 9 List of Contributed Papers 9 Update on Offshore Hydrocarbon Development and Potential in Countries Bordering the South China Sea 10 Geology and Geophysics of the South China Sea Area 16 Assessment of Undiscovered Recoverable Hydrocarbon Resources 20 Joint Studies, Research, and Investigation of the South China Sea Area 21 Environmental Aspects of Offshore Hydrocarbon Exploration and Exploitation . . 22 Changes in the Oil Market 25 Joint Development 26 Appendices Appendix 1. List of Participants 29 Appendix 2. Workshop Agenda 32

FOREWORD

The Environment and Policy Institute vironment and Extended Maritime Jurisdic• (EAPI) of the East-West Center was established tions to study critical transnational resource in October 1977 to conduct research and edu• and environment issues in Southeast Asian . cation programs through multinational collab• In the early stages of this project, it was de• oration on environmental aspects of policy and termined that future oil exploration and devel• decision making in the East-West Center re• opment in the South China Sea could have gion. The program of the Institute emphasizes significant implications for international rela• (1) analysis of various policies (e.g., economic tions and for environmental quality and the development, maritime jurisdiction) to illumi• productivity of aquatic resources. Trying to as• nate their dependence and impacts on natural sess these implications, it became clear that systems and thus on the objectives of the poli• more had to be learned about the geology and cies, and (2) assessment of scientific and tech• hydrocarbon potential of the South China Sea nical information about natural systems for in order to project activities that might occur more coherent policy formulation and imple• in the coming years. EAPI was fortunate in at• mentation through planning and manage• tracting Dr. C.Y. Li to the Center as a Fellow to ment. This systematic approach avoids the po• develop activities to address these questions. larization of environmental values versus In 1980, a first international Workshop was sectoral goals. held on this subject. The results were widely The marine environment represents a major disseminated and many recommendations resource for the countries of the world as they were acted upon. As a follow-up, Dr. Li orga• strive to meet a variety of needs on a sustained nized the second Workshop in August 1983. basis. Concerns such as environmental quality, This Workshop was attended by 50 leading viability offish stocks, and orderly exploitation authorities and experts drawn from govern• of hydrocarbons are important priorities as mental and intergovernmental organizations, countries consider individual and collective multinational oil companies, and academic in• strategies for effective utilization of the . stitutions in 12 countries. Persons attended EAPI has undertaken a project on Marine En• and participated in the meetings in their indi-

1 vidual capacities and did not represent or subscribes to every statement, although a speak for their organizations or countries. The broad consensus was reached on most major blend of perspectives and expertise at this in• points. formal meeting resulted in an exchange of in• Through this and future publications and in formation that is generally not possible among follow-up meetings, we anticipate that the such groups, who rarely meet in a neutral ex• work begun will continue and reach a wider ploratory setting. audience. In this way, we hope we are contrib• This report of the Workshop's findings, con• uting to a creative resolution of issues that are clusions, and recommendations presents the vital to the national and international interests spectrum of views expressed at the meeting. It of countries in the region. should not be assumed that every participant William H. Matthews, Director Environment and Policy Institute East-West Center

2 INTRODUCTION

The East-Wesi Center lias a mandate lor the since then, the Environment and Policy Insti• exchange of cultural and technical knowledge tute (EAPI) of the East-West Center (EWC), af• between the East and West. Its Environment ter consultation with participants in the first and Policy Institute (EAPI) has a program area Workshop, decided to convene the second on Marine Policy and Environment, which has Workshop at the East-West Center in Honolulu focused primarily on the Southeast Asian Seas on 22-26 August 1983. in recent years. This program area explores In addition to the Committee for Co-ordina• the precedents and possibilities lor joint devel• tion ofjoint Prospecting for Mineral Resources opment of hydrocarbon potential in the South in Asian Offshore Areas (CCOP), which was China Sea in areas of overlapping claims, the cosponsor of the first Workshop, the through research, exchange of information, ASEAN Council on Petroleum (ASCOPE) and and the provision of a neutral forum for rele• the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Com• vant discussions. The two Workshops on Geol• mission (IOC) joined ascosponsors for the sec• ogy and Hydrocarbon Potential of the South ond Workshop. This active role was welcome, China Sea and Possibilities of Joint Develop• because ASCOPE consists of five member ment were organized for this purpose. countries bordering the sea and IOC has long The First Workshop on t he Geology and Hy• been interested in the marine geology and drocarbon Potential of the South China Sea geophysics of the area, an interest reinforced and Possibilities of Joint Development was held by IOC's new programs on science in re• in August 1980. Some 50 leading authorities lation to nonliving resources. and experts from countries bordering the EAPI has also joined ASCOPE and CCOP in South China Sea, academic institutes, and na• convening two workshops on offshore oil and tional and multinational companies partici• gas environmental guidelines. Two booklets, pated. The proceedings were published as a one on environmental planning guidelines and special issue of Energy (v. 6, n. 11) and as a the other on technical guidelines, were pub• book by Pergamon Press (Oxford, 1981). That lished by EAPI. A joint workshop was also or• Workshop recommended that a series of fol• ganized by the ASCOPE Indonesian Technical low-up meetings be convened on the geologi• Committee and EAPI. Close cooperation cal, technological, environmental, economic, among ASCOPE, CCOP, IOC, and EAPI has and legal aspects of exploration and exploita• been established and should be used for fur• tion of hydrocarbons in the South China Sea. ther research, information exchange, and Since the first Workshop, hydrocarbon explo• workshops. ration by national and multinational oil com• The South China Sea and its margins are a panies in the South China Sea has reached its frontier in the search for hydrocarbon re• highest level, yielding new information about sources. The second Workshop provided the the petroleum geology and potential in the re• forum for a mutual exchange of updated in• gion. Because of these recommendations and formation. The Workshop not only considered the new developments that have taken place the hydrocarbon potential of the area in gen-

3 eral terms but also delineated particular areas Then the technology and investment of mul• with potential. Further, the meeting identified tinational oil companies could play an impor• areas where exploration could take place un• tant role. Under mutually acceptable condi• der current oil prices and existing technology, tions, the countries bordering the sea welcome and areas that could be developed when econo• the participation of foreign companies in as• mies and technology advance. sessing, exploring, and producing offshore hy• Present offshore oil production in the region drocarbon resources. In many areas of the sea is from water less than 200 meters deep (conti• with hydrocarbon potential, jurisdictional nental shelf), and there are still a large number claims of countries overlap. For these areas of sedimentary basins under the continental more geological and geophysical data are re• shelves waiting to be explored. Thus even un• quired, and joint studies, research, and investi• der current oil prices, prospecting and explo• gations would be desirable — for some areas, ration will not be seriously affected. Technol• essential. There are several examples of agree• ogy is advancing rapidly; elsewhere, drilling is ments on joint exploration and development taking place under water depths of over 2,000 between states in such situations, including meters. Economics permitting, there is little that between Malaysia and Thailand, and these doubt that drilling in the region will move into examples could be examined for further appli• deeper waters in the search for hydrocarbon cation in the South China Sea region. Thus the resources. When oil prices increase, as many Workshop participants were optimistic con• economists have predicted, exploration in cerning the offshore hydrocarbon potential in deeper waters will follow. the South China Sea.

4 WORKSHOP CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Approximately 50 leading authorities and tential for developing new prospects; however, experts drawn from governmental and inter• the relative estimated magnitude of those pros• governmental organizations, multinational oil pects is in part dependent upon the history of companies, and academic institutions in 12 past exploration efforts and the stage of the ex• countries participated in this second Work• ploration process in the individual countries. shop (see Appendix I for List of Participants). Offshore China has the greatest potential, After the presentation of the 38 papers sum• and major potential still exists for the Malay marized here, the participants divided into Basin, the Natuna Sea and offshore of Sarawak, two working groups to formulate conclusions Brunei, and Sabah. Palawan shelf prospects and recommendations (see Appendix 2 for the may be limited unless new play concepts are Workshop Agenda). realized. The following conclusions and recommen• The prospects of longer-term potential are dations, which reflect a broad but not neces• dependent not only upon geological factors sarily complete consensus of the participants, but on time, economics, and the state of tech• are divided into five categories: nology. The technology of exploration and de• velopment in deeper waters is being developed 1. Offshore oil and gas development and po• elsewhere and could be applied in the South tential in areas related to the South China China Sea region. Sea; Significant potential may exist within pres• 2. Marine geology and geophysics of the ently defined areas, particularly in deeper tar• South China Sea; gets, that is, Eo-Oligocene targets within the 3. Implementation of the SEATAR Pro• Malay Basin, Natuna Sea, and offshore of Sa• gram; bah. Potential may exist at depth beneath the 4. Joint development; and Palawan shelf, where older Tertiary carbonates 5. Cooperation among ASCOPE, CCOP, may be tectonically overlain by younger Ter• IOC,andEAPI/EWC. tiary sediments. The forearc basins of Luzon, as well as other areas of relatively thick sedi• ment deposition in deeper parts of the South China Sea margin, also have potential. Offshore Oil and Gas Development The study of Pre-Tertiary objectives is still in and Potential in Areas Related the stage of data collection and it is premature to the South China Sea to make an evaluation of Pre-Tertiary poten• tial. Such studies should be encouraged with a An assessment of future potential and pro• view to developing a sound data base for fu• duction might be conveniently divided into ture evaluation. short-term and long-term prospects. In the Further work and interchange of informa• short term, all countries contain significant po• tion is desirable.

5 Marine Geology and Geophysics existing marine geological and geophysical of the South China Sea data; • Further seismic, gravity, and magnetic pro• In attempting to reach a better understand• filing be undertaken to determine the ex• ing of the marine geology and geophysics of tent and character of sedimentary basins in the South China Sea, both short-term and l he f rontier regions, including deep water long-term programs should be considered. regions up to, for example, 3,000 meters; The short-term program should focus on the • Heat-flow studies of the margins of the collection of marine geological and geophysi• South China Basin be continued for a cal data in areas that can be developed rou• comprehensive evaluation of thermal tinely, using existing technology in the present maturation processes associated with hy• world economy. The long-term program drocarbon generation; should focus on the collection of marine geo• • Regional structural and stratigraphic anal• logical and geophysical data in deep water and ysis and integrated paleogeographic stud• frontier areas, for hydrocarbon resources that ies be undertaken to assist in understand• may be developed when technology and eco• ing basin evolution, including the nomics make such ventures feasible. reconstruction of the tectonics, paleogeo- Important gaps in geophysical data exist for graphy, and paleoenvironmenl of coun• the whole western half of the South China Sea, tries bordering the South China Sea; in particular the deep basin and margins of the • Correlation of onshore and offshore geol• southwest sub-basins and the forearc basins, ogy and well-hole data be continued; preventing a comprehensive evaluation of the • Onshore studies include paleomagnetic hydrocarbon potential of the South China Sea. and radiometric age-dating, which consti• The Workshop noted tute a critically important element in the understanding of the tectonics of this re• •The value of the CCOP/ASCOPE/CIR- gion; CUMPAC 1:2,000,000 base map compila• • Deep-sea drilling sites be identified by the tion; Joint CCOP-IOC SEATAR Working Group • The value of the cooperative program be• and others for consideration by the tween the South China Sea Institute and JOIDES planning committee; and the University of Tokyo, investigating the • All future work be done in cooperation bottom-water temperature of and heat with countries bordering the South China flow through the shelf ofTsouthern China; Sea and those agencies and institutions ac• • The Tertiary age of formation of the north• tively working in the region. ern margin of the South China Sea makes it an ideal site to study the processes of conti• nental margin evolution (including subsid• Implementation of the SEATAR Program ence and history and thermal and deep crustal structure); and Since its beginning in 1973, the Joint CCOP- • The invitation by Indonesian authorities IOC SEATAR (Studies in East-Asian Tectonics for interested scientists to participate in a and Resources) Program has made notable five-year program of onland investiga• contributions to the knowledge of geology and tions of Kalimantan. geophysics of the South China Sea and its sur• rounding seas. Scientific activity under the ae• The Workshop recommended that gis of SEATAR has declined in recent years, however, largely due to completion of the US. • CCOP, in cooperation with ASCOPE, initi• International Decade of Ocean Exploration ate the compilation of data source maps (IDOE) Program and the resultant withdrawal that will identify the location and types of of continuous funding from the IDOE office.

6 Possible scientific ocean drilling by the Inter• Any kind of joint development has to be national Program of Ocean Drilling/Ad• based on an agreement between the stales con• vanced Ocean Drilling Program (IPOD/ cerned. There is a customary rule of interna• AODP) could provide a new focus for renewed tional law requiring states to enter into negoti• SEATAR activity. ations on joint development involving the The Workshop recommended that exploration and exploitation of the nonliving resources in areas of overlapping claims. Fur• • SEATAR be continued, individual re• thermore, as there apparently have been no searchers keep up their work, and bilateral cases of unilateral production by one state in arrangements be made until a formal the face of reasonable objection by another mechanism for renewed coordination of claimant, state practice suggests the emer• SEATAR activities within the United States gence of an evolving rule of customary interna• as well as in other countries can be worked tional law that prevents claimant states from out; unilaterally exploiting the resources in areas of • National SEATAR coordinators be ap• overlapping claims. However, only bona fide pointed in order to help bring the ongoing claims are valid. SEATAR Transect Studies to a logical con• Understanding the political factors behind clusion and to provide a basis for new re• state's practices in joint development could search initiatives; help in achieving more such agreements for ar• • An overall transect coordinator be identi• eas of overlapping valid claims in the South fied and appointed; China Sea. Security considerations play an im• • An interim regional coordinator for portant role in the reaching of these agree• SEATAR be appointed immediately from ments. In Asia, cultural considerations, such as within the CCOP office; sensitivity about any encroachment on na• • IOC provide support to sustain the posi• tional sovereignty, are also a factor. Different tion of a regional coordinator within the policies and laws of the states, for instance, CCOP office for three to four months a production-sharing versus concessionary re• year; and gimes, must be integrated. • Every effort be made to revitalize the Several factors influence the degree of coop• SEATAR Program to continue to provide a eration between states regarding overlapping mechanism for international cooperative claim areas with hydrocarbon potential: the research in the Southeast Asian region. character of basic relations between the dispu• tants; the preoccupation of states elsewhere; military capabilities; needs for oil from the Joint Development area; and the degree of knowledge of deposits. The more these factors reinforce each other Used as a generic term, "joint development" in a negative manner between the two coun• ranges from unitization of shared resources to tries (e.g., bad relations, focus of attention on unilateral development of a shared resource the area, unequal military capabilities, press• beyond a stipulated boundary, with various ing needs for oil, established hydrocarbon po• gradations in between. tential in the area), the greater the likelihood Two major areas of concern were addressed of a low cooperation response. Where there at the Workshop: first, the legal question of are equally valid claims, a state may opt for what a coastal state can do if there is no agree• joint development because of a sense of ur• ment on the use of the nonliving resources gency or obligation to protect its interests in within an area of overlapping claims; and sec• potential deposits, combined with a desire to ond, the political factors enhancing or ham• maintain good relations with the other states. pering the process of reaching agreements on The states must guarantee stable and se• joint development. cure conditions in the area if they want to at-

7 tract private capital for exploration, a con• That report clearly indicated the importance of dition that links legal and political issues. Pri• hydrocarbon deposits, thus relating to the sub• vate risk-capital entrepreneurs may only com• ject of this Workshop. SCOR, with the assistance mit their resources to explore and exploit in of the Commission on Marine Geology (CMG), politically stable situations, such as in agreed compiled proposals for the IOC Programme on joint development areas. Ocean Science and Non-Living Resources Further research should be done on the fac• (OSNLR) that were received with appreciation tors inducing states to enter into joint develop• at the seventh meeting of the IOC General As• ment agreements, and on how specific prob• sembly (IOC Resolution XI1-2 and Annex). The lems were resolved, looking more closely at the Programme is expected to be developed and "tricks of the trade." implemented jointly with the UN's Ocean Eco• nomics and Technology Branch (IETB). Cooperation among ASCOPE, CCOP, ASCOPE and IOC joined CCOP as the co- IOC, and EAPI/EWC sponsors of this Workshop, which was orga• nized by the EWC. There is scope for further Responding to IOC Resolution EC-XIV 19 cooperation among the four organizations in and Resolution EC XV.l, the IOC Secretary re• activities of mutual interest, and they should quested the Scientific Committee on Ocean Re• maintain close consultation following the search (SCOR) to prepare a report on "ocean meeting and consider the implementation of science in relation to non-renewable resources." the Workshop recommendations.

8 SUMMARY OF PRESENTATIONS AND DISCUSSIONS

The papers presented at the Workshop are Exploration Review and Outlook in the Na• divided into six sections, following the agenda tuna Area —Gatot K. Wiroyudo in Appendix 2. The titles of these sections and The History of Offshore Hydrocarbon Ex• the papers presented within each section are ploration in Malaysia — Nordin Ramli listed below and then summarized. The pa• Petroleum Exploration in Thailand — Pra- pers will be published in full later as a special kong Polahan issue of Energy. Publications or reports marked Offshore Hydrocarbon Development and with an asterisk were made available or pre• Potential in the — sented at the meeting but will not be included Charan Achalabhuti in the proceedings, because they have already been published elsewhere or are not available. Geology and Geophysics of the South China List of Contributed Papers Sea Area A Review of Certain Major Tectonic Fea• Update on Offshore Hydrocarbon Develop• tures of the Southeast Asian Mainland — ment and Potential in Countries Bordering the Ernest P. Du Bois South China Sea Tectonic Development of Kalimantan and The Characteristics of the Geological Struc• Adjacent Areas — H.M.S. Hartono tures of the Tertiary Basins on the Conti• Pre-Tertiary Hydrocarbon Potential of the nental Margin in the Northern Part of the South China Sea Region — Maurice Main- South China Sea — Wu Jingmin guy and Henri Fontaine An Overview of the Geology and Hydrocar• Margins of the Southeast Sub-basin of the bon Prospects in Central and Northern South China Sea: A Frontier Exploration Parts of the South China Sea —Wu Target? —Dennis E. Hayes Jingmin Methodology of Estimates and Some Assess• A Study on the Seismic Waves of the Base• ments of Undiscovered Hydrocarbon Re• ment of Oil-Bearing Basins off the Pearl sources in Selected Areas of the South River Mouth Region of the South China China Sea —Keith Robinson Sea —Xia Kan Yuan Use of Seislog for Basin Evaluation and Field Geology and Bouguer Gravity Anomalies of Development — R.C. Mummery Hainan Island and Vicinity —Fan Pow- Plate Tectonic Evolution of the Western Pa• Foong cific- and Bordering Conti• The Cenozoic Tectonic Evaluation of Off• nental Areas —William K. Gealey shore Taiwan —Si-Chih Sun Origin and History of the South China Sea Tertiary Tectonic Evolution and Related Hy• Basin — Brian Taylor and Dennis E. Hayes drocarbon Potential in the Natuna Area — Structure and Tectonics of the Manila Gatot K. Wiroyudo and A bi rat no Trench System — Dennis E. Hayes and Ste• Wongsosantiko phen D. Lewis

9 Forearc Basin Development along Western Southeast Asian Seas: Hydrocarbon Poten• Luzon, Philippines — Stephen U Lewis tial and Unresolved Boundaies — Mark J. and Dennis E. Hayes Valencia Results of Sonne Cruise SO-23 and SO-27 - The Malaysian Philosophy of Joint Develop• H.U Schliiter ment — Datuk Harun Ariffin Oxygen Isotope Studies of Planktonic China's Sovereignty over its Offshore Oil Foraminifera from the South China Sea and the New Law of the Sea —Paul C. Core (V19-134) —Chen Ming-Sue et al. Yuan The Japan-South Korea Joint Development Joint Studies, Research, and Investigation of Arrangement — Masahiro Miyoshi the South China Sea The Norway-Iceland Arrangement for Jan CCOP-IOC Programme on Studies in East Mayen — Willy Ostreng Asia Tectonics and Resources — Report by A Case Study in Joint Development: The the CCOP Off ice Partitioned Neutral Zone (Saudi Arabia/ Report of the Economic Advisory Panel on Kuwait) — William T. Onorato Mineral and Hydrocarbon Resources — Petroleum: A New Meeting the CCOP Office Ground by the Soviet Union and the ASCOPE/CCOP Joint Program-M.A. United Slates — Robert Krueger Warga-Dalem, ASCOPE New IOC Programs on Ocean Science in Re• lation to Non-Living Resources — Noriy- ii ki Nasu Update on Offshore Hydrocarbon Develop• ment and Potential in Countries Bordering Environmental Aspects of Offshore Hydrocar• the South China Sea (Papers 1-10) bon Exploration and Exploitation Environmental Impact Assessment of Off• All countries bordering the South China Sea shore Operations: Lessons of a Decade of except Kampuchea, Singapore, and Vietnam Experience in the United Slates, the now have offshore hydrocarbon production. United Kingdom, and Canada— Gordon Singapore is shelf-locked with a small offshore Beanlands area and has no offshore hydrocarbon poten• Report of ASCOPE's Workshop on Offshore tial. In all other countries more offshore dis• Geological and Natural Environmental coveries are expected (Table 1), and the region Hazards —M.A. Warga-Dalem as a whole is likely to be a major world oil pro• South China Sea: Hypothetical Oil Spill Tra• ducer. As prospecting and exploration pro• jectories and Transnational Impact — ceed, production from the offshore area will be Mark J. Valencia, Hira L. Kaul, and Jerry increasingly important, and in some countries Gall the sole source of production.

Changes in the Oil Market Petroleum Supply and Demand in the Asia- Brunei Pacific Region: Structural Changes, Op• tions, and Vulnerabilities in 1980s — Fe- Brunei has been and remains an important reidun Fesharaki oil exporter. With daily production at 155,000 barrels and domestic consumption of around Joint Development 10,000 barrels, Brunei exported an average of Arrangements for Joint Development Pend• 145,000 barrels per day in 1982, an amount ing Resolution of Boundaries — Rainer comparable to that exported from Malaysia. Lagoni Potential still exists offshore of Brunei.

10 Table 1. Offshore Hydrocarbon Production and Reserves in Countries Bordering the South China Sea as ofJanuary 1983

Reserves (Estimated Cumulative Ultimate Remaining Production Production Recoverable) Reserves

Country/Basin Oil Gas Oil Gas Oil Gas Oil Gas (thousand (million cubic (billion (trillion (billion (trillion (billion (trillior barrels feet per day) barrels) cubic ft) barrels) cubic ft) barrels) cubic fi per day)

Brunei Baram Delia 166 900 1.4 p 29-34 12.5 2 6.8 China _ _ _ _ ? p p ? Southeast Hainan - - - 10 p 10 p Pearl River - - - - "sizable" p "sizable" p Taiwan Area - - - - p p p p l,300b p 9.9b ? 107a 43.4 277.5 Kampuchia - - - - p p p p Malaysia (total) 301.9 136 p p p p 23 49 West Malay 128.2 - .77 - 10 6.615 7 p East Sabah 68.7 p - .2 Sarawak Baram 105 p p p ) 16 Balingian - - - - Minor - C. Luconia - - - Minor is ; Philippines Palawan 7 - .015 - .050 - .035 .016 Reed Bank - - - - - Minor - - Thailand (total) 5 130 - 13 .030 14.9 ? p Malay Basin - - - - - 7.2 p ? Vietnam _ _ _ _ p ? ? p

Sources: Ernest P. Du Bois, personal communication, 1983; Shell Brunei; T.D. Adams (SEAPEX); Petroleum News, January 1983; Petroleum Economist, December 1981; N. Ramli, Pelronas; Oil and Gas Journal, 27 December 1982. a Barrels of oil equivalent. h Land and sea. ? = Amount unknown. - — None.

China duction has come from land. Since the first Workshop, intensive and extensive surveys by China remains the leading producer of pe• Chinese experts, sometimes in cooperation troleum in East Asia (Figures 1 and 2). Its daily with foreign companies, have continued off• production has been stable at 2 million barrels shore. In the northern part of the South China during the last few years; however, that pro• Sea, a series of sedimentary basins have been

11

Fig. 7. Cenozok sediment thickness in the northern part of the South China Sea, (From Wu Jingmin, The characteristics of the geological structures of Tertiary basins on the continental margin in the northern part of the South China Sea.)

Fig. 2. Distribution of Tertiary basins in the northern part of the South China Sea. (From Wu Jingmin, The characteristics of the geological structures of the Tertiary basins on the continental margin in the northern part of the South China Sea.) found, for example, the Bcibu Gull Basin, the 35 percent comes from offshore; this percent• Yinggchai Basin, the Xisha Trough Basin, the age is likely to increase, particularly with the Oliongdongnan (Sout heast Hainan) Basin, and expected increase in production from the Na- the Pearl River Mouth Basin. In the first three t una area. basins, commercial oil deposits have been dis• In the Natuna area, three major tectonic ele• covered. Seismic re I lection surveys indicate ments can be recognized: the West Natuna Ba• that there are Tertiary basins oft shore of Tai• sin, the East Natuna Basin, and the Natuna wan to the west and north but, aside from mi• arch. The arch is a NNYV-SSE-trending base• nor gas deposits in the west, no discovery has ment high and effectively separates the two ba• yet been reported. sins. The hydrocarbon potential of the West Joint geophysical prospect ing bet ween Natuna Basin is enhanced by the presence of China and foreign companies in the northern local thick sequences of both Oligocene and part of the South China Sea began in 1979, Miocene sediments that may be good source when China signed agreements with a large and reservoir rocks. number of foreign companies, including In the East Natuna Basin, sedimentation ARCO, AMOCO, Mobil, ESSO, Chevron, Tex• also started in Oligo-Miocene time. In the aco, and Phillips. Seismic investigations on western part of the basin, the oldest sediments scales of 1:200,000 to 1:500,000 were con• consist of clastic materials deposited in fluvial- ducted. From 1979 to 1980, the South China liuoral shore-face environments, whereas in Sea Geological Investigation Headquarters of the eastern part, inner-middle nerttic facies the Ministry of Geology and Mineral Re• are developed. During Middle Lale Miocene sources and the Lamont-Doheny Geological time, extensive shell carbonates were depos• Observatory of the University of Columbia car• ited in the north-central part of the basin, ried out a comprehensive marine geophysical while elsewhere ncritic clastic sediments are investigation in an area of about 470,000 km'J predominant. Marine clastic sediments were in the central and northern parts of the South deposited continuously until Pleistocene lime. China Sea. From 1980 to 1982, an integrated The carbonate and shallow marine sediments geophysical survey on a scale of 1:1,000,000 are considered lo be the main hydrocarbon was conducted in the area north of I0°N. The source rock. Based on heat-flow data, the cen• results of these surveys, together with drilling, tral parts of the northern and southern por• have proved that there is great hydrocarbon tions of the East Naiuna Basin are potential potential in the northern part of the South targets for further hydrocarbon exploration. China Sea. From 1980 lo 1982, 40 new exploration wells were drilled and 10,000 km of seismic line shot The joint Chinese-TOTAL (Fiance) under• in the area. taking in the Beibu Gulf Basin started drilling a few years ago, and the joint Chinese-ARCO Indonesia welcomes foreign companies to (US.) company has also begun drilling in the deal with the geologic uncertainties inherent Yinggehai Basin. In both areas, oil or gas have in exploration decisions. Since decisions in ex• been discovered. Recently China also awarded ploration ventures involve the basin's geology, contracts to four international groups led by joint study by the government and foreign British Petroleum, Occidental, ESSO, and Shell. companies on the basin level could be consid• ered. These joint efforts may reduce invest• Indonesia ment risks in the basin and could be a common investment incentive. Indonesia, being a member of OPEC, has to follow the production quota allotted to it, Malaysia which is 1.3 million barrels per day. Neverthe• less, it is still the second largest producer in Malaysia's hydrocarbon production comes East Asia afterChina. Of the total production, entirely from the offshore area. Average daily

14 production of oil in 1983 was about 300,000 barrels of condensate. In the early production barrels. The Malaysian offshore area covers a stage, several engineering and geological prob• tolal of about 364,450 km2, of" which 264,000 lems were encountered. Producible sand reser• km" is made up of continental shelf (water voirs are Upper to Middle Miocene and possi• depth less than 200 m) and the remaining bly Oligocene in age. The sand bodies are 99.500 km2 (or 27 percent) of deep water areas somewhat discontinuous and lenticular and with depths of up lo more than 2,000 m. The highly faulted, thus reducing the drainage continental shelf is underlain by thick Tertiary areas. The high bottom-hole temperatures sedimentary sequences and occupies a signifi• caused some packer failures, leading to the cant portion of the , one of the shut-in of several wells for workover and re• largest continuous shallow water areas in the ducing the number of new completion wells world. Exploration and production have been drilled. In spite of the problems encountered concentrated mainly in three major sedimen• in the early production of the Erawan gas field, tary basins: the Malay Basin, the Sarawak Ba• the Gulf of Thailand as a whole still has great sin, and the Sabah Basin. potential for future development. Although it is likely that most of the large oil The side of Thailand awaits and gas f ields in Malaysia have been discovered, exploration, and the Thai government has in• prospects for additional petroleum discoveries vited petroleum companies to submit applica• appear excellent. The deep water areas offshore tions for exploration and production there. of Sabah and Sarawak have no seismic or well Another significant development is in explora• coverage and their potential is relatively un• tion for oil and gas on land. Thai Shell is cur• known. However, a gas discovery was made off• rently conducting further seismic work to map shore of Sabah from a well drilled in 593 ft of structures in SukhoThai, Pichit, and Phitsanu- water. Offshore ol Sarawak, a well drilled in 500 loke provinces, while Esso Exploration and ft of water showed oil and gas potential. The ac• Production Khorat Inc. had two major gas dis• quisition of high-quality seismic data for these coveries in northeastern Thailand. areas will assist in delineating the sedimentary thickness and possible plays. The Philippines

In comparison with offshore oil production Thailand and potential in the other five countries, hy• drocarbon prospects here are still uncertain. Since the discovery of the commercial gas/ For the year up to September 1982, 2,255 km condensate deposits in the Gulf of Thailand of seismic lines were shot, of which 73 percent reported to the f irst Workshop, drilling of ex• (1,641.5 km) were offshore. Fourteen wells ploratory, delineation, and production wells in were drilled, ten offshore. Principal areas of ac• the gulf has increased. As of June 1983, over tivity were offshore of Palawan and Mindoro, 100 wells had been drilled, with a success ratio and onshore in central Luzon. of about 1 to 2: only a few holes were recorded as totally dry. The seven commercial gas/con• Kampuchea and Vietnam densate fields discovered are estimated to con• tain at least 16 trillion ft3 of wet gas and 100 There are no known offshore survey and million barrels of condensate. Besides these prospecting activities in Kampuchea. An off• seven f ields, several prospects await f urther in• shore oil strike was made in February 1975 by vestigation: a few have been drilled and gas/ Mobil, with a flow rate of 2,400 barrels a day. condensate discovered. There is reported Soviet assistance in pros• As ofjune 30, 1983, the total cumulative gas pecting for hydrocarbons in Vietnam. Little and condensate production from the Erawan current information is available, but geologists field, which is the only producing field at believe there is hydrocarbon potential off• present, was 80,355 million ft3 of and 3,533 shore of northern and southern Vietnam.

15 Geology and Geophysics of the South China "sets" are still active, as indicated by recent Sea Area (Papers 11-22) movements and topographic features.

Since the first Workshop, new information Hainan Island has become available for the land bordering the South China Sea and for the Sea itself. The Hainan Island is located in the southern new information sometimes yields divergent part of the South China Block. This block con• views. Many of the plate tectonic solutions may sists of the Caledonian South China Fold belt be valid for offshore regions, but similar solu• and the Variscan Southeastern Maritime Fold- tions may not be valid for the continental do• belt along the coast of the East and South main. Divergent views are welcome, because China seas. Northern Hainan Island is part of they will lead to further studies and investiga• the South China Foldbelt and central and tions and result in a better understanding of southern Hainan Island is part of the South• the geology and geophysics of these areas, eastern Maritime Foldbelt. During Triassic which helps in the search for hydrocarbon po• time (the Indosinian Movement) the Indo• tential. It is apparent that the oceanic areas china Block converged toward and eventually cannot be considered in isolation from the con• coalesced with the China Block. Duringjuras- tinental areas. Both regions must be consid• sic and Cretaceous time (the Yenshanian Move• ered together and the ultimate tectonic solu• ment), a northwest-dipping subduction zone tions must take into account the tectonic developed on the southeastern margins of the history of both onshore and offshore areas. Indochina and South China blocks. Yensha• nian intrusives are present in Hainan Island and extend as a magmatic arc across the Chi• Geology on Land nese continental shelf to the west of Taiwan. Five Bouguer anomaly zones are recognized Major features having stratigraphic and tec• in Hainan Island. The anomalies in northern tonic implications include (1) the northwest- and northeastern Hainan Island are due to the southeast fault zones of Vietnam, (2) the Yun• thickness of Neogene and Quaternary sedi• nan-Malaya "geosyncline," and (3) the Pak ments there, and anomalies in central, north• Lay-Luang Prabang and Petchabun folds in western, and southeastern Hainan Island re• Laos and Thailand. The northwest-southeast- flect the Variscan tectonic pattern of the trending lineaments of Southeast Asia, for ex• region. The Bouguer anomalies increase ample, the Red River Fault Zone, represent a southward from —20 mgl along the coast to fundamental feature of the 's crust that + 50 mgl near the edge of the continental shelf, considerably predates the "collision" between and from +50 mgl to +220 mgl from the con• Indonesia and the Southeast China Platform tinental slope to the abyssal basin. (Southeast China Block). The principal tectonic characteristics and features of the Yunnan-Malaya geosyncline Kalimantan seem to have been established in Early Pa• laeozoic time and to have had a persistent An important tectonic event for Kalimantan effect on the geology and topography of occurred in the late Triassic period, when Kali• Southeast Asia into Tertiary time. The Pak mantan was cratomized and stabilized by tec• Lay-Luang Prabang and Petchabun fold belts tonic processes related to collision and south in Laos and Thailand represent two tectonic Kalimantan became a platform. This event styles, one striking N-S and the other NW-SE. could be correlated with the Indosinian orog• They contact each other most notably in the eny. Post-Late Triassic deposition could either right-lateral-transcurrent Dien Bien Phu Fault be platform cover or active marginal accretion. in the vicinity of 99° N, 103° E. Both tectonic Platform cover occurs in central, south, and

16 southeast Kalimantan; marginal development The South China Sea took place northward, eastward, and south• ward. The northward development ceased The South China Sea Basin is a small "Atlan• during Late Miocene time, whereas develop• tic-type" basin bounded by passive, rifled, con• ment to the south and east continues. tinental margin blocks both to the north and to the south. The nature of the western margin is Pre-Tertiary Hydrocarbon Potential poorly known, but it is presumed to be primar• ily a sheared transform margin. The eastern For the first time in Southeast Asia, hydro• margin is an active collisional boundary where carbons have been found in rocks of Permian the Philippine assemblage of island arcs is age, that is, the two gas discoveries in north• presently overriding the subducting South eastern Thailand. This is a clear encourage• China Sea oceanic lithosphere. The southern ment to put more emphasis on Permian forma• margin of mainland China and the northern tions. From available data, Permian rocks are margin of the Reed Bank and adjacent blocks widespread from South China to Sumatra and represent the boundaries between normal oce• from Thailand to the Philippines and Taiwan. anic crust and subsided transitional crust that Its facies include limestones as a neritic envi• has been rifted and thinned. ronment, and coal has been reported in several The deeper-ocean basin area in the western places. With the exception of Taiwan, the Per• half of the South China Sea is much narrower mian is generally unmetamorphosed, thick, in than that of the eastern half. Furthermore, the many cases only gently folded, and includes characteristic seaflooi-spreading magnetic lin- possible source beds. eations mapped in the eastern sub-basin cannot be extended with any confidence into the west• Plate Tectonic Evolution of Southeast Asia ern sub-basin. Although there is a clear indica• tion of a change in the trend of the basement Marine magnetic anomalies, information relief between the two sub-basins, there is no from deep-sea drill holes, and regional geology apparent structural discontinuity in the deep indicate that consolidation of continental water portion of the sub-basins. Any plausible pieces from Condwanaland formed the core reconstruction of the South China Sea Basin to area of China and Southeast Asia during the its pre-drifl configuration creates a significant Indosinian orogeny near the end of Triassic overlap of the inferred zones of transitional time. A major change in plate boundaries and crust bordering the western sub-basin. motions about 50 m.y. B.P. resulted in interac• The constraints imposed by plate-tectonic tion between the Southeast Asian, Australian, models, together with the limited information and Pacific plates, leading to the complex con• on the evolution of the north-south margins of figuration of island arcs, marginal basins, and the eastern sub-basin, can be used to predict continental fragments that characterizes the some key characteristics of the north-south present western Pacific region (Figure 3). margins of the western sub-basin. The anoma• A number of problems remain to be solved, lous crustal extension inferred for the western such as the precise position of Indosinian su• half of the basin leads to speculation on nu• tures and their subduction polarities, the pre• merous rift basins and their associated sedi• cise timing of the collisions, the amount of ments that may have been subjected to unusual strike-slip movement of various portions of thermal conditions that would be favorable for the "early" maturation of hydrocarbons. Al• China and Southeast Asia resulting from the though this region remains virtually unex• collision and northward drive of India, and plored, this analysis suggests it should be one resolution of the sequence of evolution of the focus for frontier exploration. complex arc assemblage that forms the present Philippine archipelago.

17 00

Fig. 3. Tectonic map showing the age of the ocean floor. Patterned areas identified as follows: J -Jurassic, Early Cretaceous (Neocomian-Berriasian), Kqz -Cretaceous Quiet Zone (Aptian-Coniacian), Ks-m, Late Cretaceous (Santonian-Maestrichtian), Tp -Paleocene, Te —Eocene, To -Oligocene, Tm-p—Miocene-Pliocene, Q-Quaternary. The numbers indicate the magnetic anomalies used as age boundaries. The toothed line indicates active subduction zone, with the teeth on the upper plate. The line with Xs indicates an active magmatic belt. The line with short bars indicates sutures separating ancient plates used in subsequent reconstructions. (From E.S. Parker and W.K. Gealey, Plate Tectonic evolution of the Western Pacific-Indian Ocean regions.) Structure and Tectonics of the Manila The Dangerous Ground Trench System As a contribution of the Federal Republic of The oceanic lithosphere of the South China Germany to the SEATAR Program, the Fed• Sea is being subducted beneath Luzon along eral Institute of Geosciences and Natural Re• the Manila Trench. The trench axis is between sources, in cooperation with the Philippine Bu• 4,000 m and 6.000 m in depth and can be reau of Mines and Geosciences, carried out mapped from about 13° N to 20° N along west• Sonne Cruises SO-23 (1982) and SO-27 in the ern Luzon. The Luzon trough forearc basin southeastern part of the South China Sea in system lies landward of the Manila Trench, 1983. Multichannel seismic reflection mea• bounded on its seaward Hank by a well-devel• surements were made in parallel with mag• oped accretionary prism. The uplifted Zam- netic, gravity, and sea-bottom measurements bales ophiolitc and its offshore extension form on 50 lines with a total length of 10,700 km. the landward side of the forearc basin system Five unconformities of regional extent are along Luzon. North of Lingayen Gulf, a num• recognized in the study area: (1) a Miocene- ber of fault zones trend offshore from north• Pliocene unconformity, (2) a Middle Miocene ern Luzon and disrupt the forearc in this re• unconformity that coincides with the end of gion. Interaction of a seamount chain present seafloor spreading in the South China Sea Ba• on the South China Sea plate with the Luzon sin, (3) an Early Miocene unconformity that forearc has caused localized faulting and up• often marks the end of carbonate build-up in lift within a narrow zone. This uplifted block, the South China Sea, (4) a Middle-Upper Oli• called Stewart Bank, divides the forearc basin gocene unconformity marking the transition system into two basins: the North Luzon from rifting to drifting in the South China Sea, Trough and the West Luzon Trough. and (5) a Paleocene-Upper Cretaceous uncon• Folding and faulting of up to 3 km of trench formity interpreted as the onset of rifting. sediment fill accompanies the offscraping and The sediments of the Miocene-Oligocene accretion of this material to the overriding carbonate platform are bounded by uncon• plate along the entire length of the Manila formities and extend from the Dangerous Trench. Although the rate of uplift clue to sub• Ground to beneath central and southern Pala• duction accretion appears to be highly variable wan. They are overlain by a chaotic wedge along the trench, no evidence suggests any epi• about 10 km thick, hitherto interpreted as a sodes of large-scale subsidence of the forearc subduction-related accretionary wedge. Ac• region. The major decollement between ac• cording to the Sonne data, this wedge is ex• creted and subducted material forms within posed on central and southern Palawan and is the sediment fill of the Manila Trench, indica• an allochthonous mass or a nappe overthrust ting that some f raction of the sediment overly• onto the edge of the carbonate platform of the ing oceanic crust is subducted. Dangerous Grounds/Calamian-Palawan mi- Regional tectonic constraints indicate that crocontinent. The Ulugan Bay fault is thought subduction at the Manila Trench probably be• to form the northern front of this nappe. gan in Late Oligocene or Early Miocene time. A rapid pulse of uplift experienced by the Planktonic Foraminifera from the South China Sea Zambales ophiolite may be tectonically related Core V19-134 to the beginning of subduction in the Manila Trench. Simple mass/sediment balance calcu• Oxygen isotope analyses have been per• lations suggest that the convergence rate along formed on foraminifera in a piston core, V19- the Manila Trench may have varied signifi• 134, taken in the South China Sea. The result cantly since the inception of subduction. shows that different foraminifera species from

19 Table 2. Assessment of Undiscovered Crude Oil in Some Countries Bordering the South China Sea*

USGS Assessment Play Analysis Country Mode Mean (50% probability)

Thailand 0.5 1.0 0.1 W. Malaysia 1.3 20 1.4 E. Malaysia 4.1 6.0 2.2 and Brunei Indonesia 9.2 15.5 NA Offshore China & China Sea Area 6.0 7.8 7.1 (4.0)b E. China Sea Area 1.1 2.0 1.6 Vietnam 3.0 39 NA a Oil in billions of barrels per day. b 4.0 assumes oil con fined to deeper grabens with greater than 2 km sediment cover. NA = Not available.

Table 3. Assessment of Undiscovered Natural Gas in Some Countries Bordering the South China Sea"

USGS Assessment Play Analysis Country Mode Mean (50% probability)

Thailand 17.3 20.7 16.8 W. Malaysia 12.7 17.2 17.0 E. Malaysia 40.8 63.1 46.0 and Brunei Indonesia 25.1 42.2 NA Offshore China S. China Sea Area 30.9 41.0 21.1 E. China Sea Area 12.9 194 4.9 a Gas in trillions of cubic feet. NA = Not available.

the same sediment have different l80/l60 ra• covered oil and gas resources in areas border• tios. The variation is closely related to paleocli- ing the South China Sea are summarized in Ta• matic change. Owing to the scarcity of the oxy• bles 2 and 3. gen isotope data and the lack of absolute In the last few years, interest has developed dating, precise ages of these different climatic in using seismic data not only to map struc• stages cannot be determined in this core. tural features but as a means of determining the nature of the subsurface stratigraphy. A Assessment of Undiscovered Recoverable method has been developed to convert seismic Hydrocarbon Resources (Papers 15- 16) traces into a series of synthetic sonic logs. These logs, called SEISLOGS, have a vertical The proceedings of a seminar on the meth• axis in depth facilitating integration with sonic odology of assessment of undiscovered hydro• logs. A primary application of the SEISLOGS carbon resources issued by the CCOP office is the delineation of productive units in the was distributed to the meeting. The results of subsurface. Secondary applications include li- basic play analysis and assessments of undis• thology and facies distributions in basin evalu-

20 ation studies. The method has been applied in between countries bordering the northern and surveys in offshore Malaysia in the Natuna Sea southern part of the sea. area and in the Gulf of Thailand. A number of joint programs have been and are being carried out by ASCOPE and CCOP. These include stratigraphic correlation, a pe• Joint Studies, Research, and Investigation of troleum data bank, marine environmental the South China Sea Area (Papers 23-26) protection, and geothermometry and heat- flow studies. A number of joint seminars and To ascertain the hydrocarbon potential of a workshops have also been held, including one geologically complex area like the South China on methodology for assessment of undiscov• Sea requires joint studies, research, and inves• ered recoverable hydrocarbon resources and tigations by countries bordering the sea. In• another on hydrocarbon prospects in carbon• deed, it is through such undertakings that joint ate formations. Among the important publica• development can be encouraged. Such cooper• tions in preparation by ASCOPE (with the help ative efforts have been undertaken and are be• of CCOP) relevant to the hydrocarbon re• ing continued through the sponsorship of a sources of the South China Sea are "Tertiary number of regional and international bodies, Sedimentary Basins in the Offshore ASEAN in particular the ASEAN Council on Petro• areas" and "Tertiary Sedimentary Basins of the leum (ASCOPE), the United Nations Develop• , , and Macassar Straits." ment Program's (UNDP) Regional Project on Offshore Prospecting in East Asia, and the In• tergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) WESTPAC. EAPI has also contributed a CCOP/IOC's SEATAR Program number of relevant studies and provided a fo• rum for discussions. CCOP and IOC Joint Programs on SEATAR (Studies in East-Asian Tectonics and Resources) have yielded much of the current geological ASCOPE/CCOPJoint Program and geophysical information on the South China Sea and its bordering countries and have The need for close cooperation among the thus led to a better understanding of metallifer• ASEAN member countries in petroleum mat• ous ore and hydrocarbon genesis in the area. ters resulted in the formation of ASCOPE in The program was initiated at the 1972 session October 1975. ASCOPE consists of the na• of CCOP. In a joint workshop convened by tional oil companies or agencies of the five CCOP and IOC in 1973, a basic framework for ASEAN countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, the SEATAR was formulated. Projects agreed on Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. All included investigations along six transects, each ASEAN member countries border the South cutting across the island arc systems from the China Sea, and their cooperation, through ocean basins to the continents and crossing a di• ASCOPE, contributes to a better understand• versity of tectonic elements. Research along the ing of its geology and hydrocarbon potential. transects was multidisciplinary, including both These countries are also members of the land and marine studies and involving most Committee for Co-ordination of Joint Pros• countries bordering the Gulf of Thailand and pecting in Asian Offshore Areas (CCOP), an the South China Sea. A number of technical intergovernmental body supported by UNDP publications are now available providing the through its Regional Offshore Prospecting results of the surveys. Project. CCOP also includes China, Kampu• The SEATAR program began during the chea, and Vietnam as members. It is thus an period of the International Decade of Ocean important body for promoting the search for Exploration (IDOE) from 1971-1980. As and development of hydrocarbon resources in IDOE was originally proposed by the late U.S. the South China Sea, as it provides a linkage President Lyndon Johnson, the National Sci-

21 ence Foundation (NSF) of the United States deeper-water areas along the continental mar• provided funds for American research vessels gins, beyond those areas currently being ex• to undertake expeditions in the South China plored by the oil companies. Sea. At one time there were ten research ves• sels (not all from the U.S.) directly or indirectly related to SEATAR criss-crossing the sea. Environmental Aspects of Offshore With the end of IDOE program in 1980 Hydrocarbon Exploration and Exploitation funding ceased and the SEATAR program has (Papers 27-29) suffered; however, some countries bordering the South China Sea have obtained survey ves• The approaches of the United States, the sels of their own, and some developed coun• United Kingdom, and Canada to environmen• tries, particularly the Federal Republic of Ger• tal impact assessment for offshore develop• many, have continued to survey the area. ments, including types of regulatory ap• proaches, allocation of responsibilities, and The Intergovernmental Oceanographic expectations, were compared. Open-ocean Commission (IOC) marine systems are highly dynamic, and their natural variability places serious constraints on As an intergovernmental body, IOC has al• the ability to predict and measure the environ• ways maintained an interest in the South mental consequences of offshore develop• China Sea and has joined CCOP in cospon- ments. There is increasing evidence that, ex• soring the SEATAR Program. This interest was clusive of major oil spills, the short-term reinforced by the adoption of resolution XII- biological effects of operating oil and gas facili• 2, "Ocean Science in Relation to Non-Living ties offshore under existing regulations and Resources (OSNLAR)," at the twelfth session of state-of-the-art technology are minimal and the IOC Assembly. At that session a proposal confined to the immediate vicinity of the facili• on the subject was presented, prepared at ties. The longer-term effects of oil and gas pro• IOC's request by the Scientific Committee on duction facilities on marine biota are largely Ocean Research (SCOR) with the assistance of unknown, and monitoring programs designed to detect subtle cumulative impacts should be the Commission for Marine Geology (CMG). conducted over the life of the facilities. Con• The report, received with appreciation by ducting environmental studies offshore is an IOC, covers a wide field. Of particular impor• expensive, lime-consuming, and technically tance to the Workshop was its detailed account demanding task that requires the best com• of subsurface hydrocarbon deposits, including bined efforts of industry and government. subsections on hydrocarbon potential, reser• voir and cap-rocks, basin modeling, matura• ASCOPE held a workshop on Technical As• tion, and gas clathrates. The report states that pects of Offshore Geologic and Natural Envi• about 600 basins with thick sediments have ronmental Hazards in Jakarta March 29-30, been identified worldwide by geophysical 1983. Topics addressed included the back• methods and drilling, and that 40 percent of ground of offshore environmental hazards, the probed basins contain recoverable hydro• methods for field and laboratory investiga• carbons. About 200 basins have not yet been tions, and case studies from the region. That drilled, and most are located offshore. Giant workshop recommended that (1) geologic and fields have been found in 75 basins to date, environmental hazards in offshore operations and such fields can be expected offshore of should be considered and studied more care• continents that show high sedimentation and fully to avoid accidents, (2) obtaining the data subsidence rates, while small pelagic basins needed for preventive measures requires mul- seem to be less prospective. Research on hy• tidisciplinary organizations and regional and drocarbon resources in the marine environ• interdisciplinary workshops can be used for ment in the near future will extend out to the this purpose, and (3) ASCOPE should accept

22

Table 4. Current and Future Scenarios of Oil Production, Consumption, and Trade in the Asia-Pacific Region"

1982 1990 Item Production Consumption Exports/ Production Consumption Exports/ Imports Imports Net Oil Exporters Indonesia 1,341 480 861 1,800 612b 1,188 Malaysia 306 145 161 400 182 218 Brunei 155 10 145 250 20 230 Burma 27 23 4 60 34 26 China 2,020 1,720 300 4,000 3,500 500 Net Oil Importers Philippines'1 7 193 -186 40 300 -260 Thailand* 5 203 -198 60 280 -220 Hong Kong - 133c -133c - 260 -260 Japan 6 4,241 -4,235 6 4,300 -4,294 South Korea - 472 -472 - 670 -670 Taiwan 3 347c -344c 3 400 -397 Singaporer - 180 -180 - 180 -180 India 384 706 -322 700 1,100 -400 Pakistan 12 100 -88 30 140 -110 Sri Lanka - 27c -27c - 33 -33 Bangladesh - 24c -24c - 52 -52

TOTAL 4,266 9,004 -4,738 7,349 12,063 -4,714

Sources: OPEC Downstream Project Data System, Asian Development Bank, Oil and Gas Journal, Caltex, unpublished government reports, and personal enquiries. a Oil in thousands of barrels per day. b Excluding oil industry use and bunkering of50,000-100,000 b/d. c 1980or 1981 data. d Oil production in Philippines rose to 30,000 b/d in 1979, but declined later due to technical problems of Midde field. e Oil production expected to reach 20,000 b/d by 1983. f Includes refinery fuels and bunkering. Own consumption around 80,000 b/d.

input from institutions to initiate regional co• Changes in the Oil Market (Paper 30) operations on the subject. Hypothetical oil spill trajectories were pre• The two oil price revolutions of the 1970s sented from six point sources: Bach Ho, Nido, have been followed by the counterrevolution of CPC F-l Wellsite, south of Hainan, Tapis, and 1980-1983. A change in market psychology Tembungo. A large oil spill at most of the sam• has taken place. The market now believes that ple sites could cross newly proclaimed interna• OPEC nations are resolved to respect produc• tional boundaries and have impacts on valu• tion quotas and official prices. The oil market is able and vulnerable marine resources (Figures expected to continue to strengthen, and average 4 and 5). Such information is useful for contin• OPEC prices are expected to rise a little above gency planning. present. By 1990, real oil prices equal to 1980-

25 Table 5. Scenarios of Oil Supply and Demand*

Scenario I11 1 % Growth Scenario I Scenario 11 1983-90 1 % Annual 2% Annual 2 % Growth Item I983b Growth Growth 1990-2000 1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000

World Oil Demand 44.7 48.2 53.0 52.0 62.6 48.2 5H.7 Oil Supplies

c Non-OPEC 24.7 25.5 26.5*' 25.5 26.5d 25.5 2G.5d Required OPEC Crude Output 17.4 21.5 25.0 25.0 33.1 21.5 29.2 OPECNGL 0.9 1.2 15.0 15.0 3.0 1.2 3.0 Inventory Change (1-7) ------

A Oil in million barrels per day. b Projected (see Table 1). c Includes 100,000 b/d of net CPE as well as processing gains and synthetics for 1990 and 2000 d Mean of expected output of 25.5 to 27.5.

1981 levels are predicted. For the longer term, would not. For these rules to apply all claims to Less-Developed Country (LDC) demand is ex• the area must be bona fide. pected to lead to a growth in world oil demand; Geological information on and international in the 1990s a tight market will put great up• relations in the areas of overlapping claims ward pressure on prices (Tables 4 and 5). provide the background for legal delibera• tions. Areas that are candidates for joint devel• Joint Development (Papers 31 -38) opment in the South China Sea might include Vietnam-Kampuchea in the eastern Gulf of Two legal problems offer a frame of refer• Thailand, the Dangerous Ground, and the ence for the discussion of states' behavior re- area claimed by both Indonesia and Australia garding joint development. on the Arafura shelf. Eventually, joint arrange• International law requires states having ments between Vietnam and Indonesia and overlapping claims to negotiate in good faith Vietnam and Thailand may be possible (Fig• with regard to provisional arrangements of a ure 6). However, willingness to come to terms practical nature. Such arrangements could may be lacking in the current atmosphere in mean joint development of the nonliving re• the region. sources within the area of overlapping claims. Thailand and Malaysia are already in the If states cannot agree on provisional arrange• process of implementing a joint development ments, however, there is an emerging rule of arrangement for their area of overlap in the genera] international law that they must not southwestern Gulf of Thailand. Pragmatism, unilaterally proceed to exploit the nonliving consonant national interests, such as the im• resources of the area in dispute. Thus marine portance of hydrocarbons to each of the na• scientific research and exploration, including tions, and a willingness to cooperate were fac• seismic exploration, within the overlapping tors in arriving at a joint development scheme claims would be allowed, but the erection of between these two nations. permanent structures or the drilling of wells China has laid claim to much of the South

26

China Sea. Cultural factors, such as the Chi• cation of interdependence. Conciliation com• nese need for sovereignty over natural re• missions can be a useful aid, providing the ba• sources rooted in its unfortunate history of sis for governmental policymaking and having been victimized by the colonialist coun• defusing politically flammable questions dur• tries, would be important in exploring a joint ing the exploratory stage of setting upjoint de• development arrangement. China may opt for velopment agreements. joint development as stipulated in the new The Partitioned Neutral Zone between LOS Convention (Articles 74 and 83, para• Saudi Arabia and Kuwait was the first success• graph 3), which calls for temporarily putting ful joint resource development arrangement aside the sensitive problem of territorial sover• between two countries. It has been functioning eignty to pool efforts to develop offshore min• smoothly for over 20 years based on the Is• eral resources for the common good of all lamic idea of common ownership and the good countries involved. Another alternative is for relations between the two nations. This case China to explore and develop petroleum re• suggests that private oil firms could be allowed sources in undisputed nearshore waters, taking to act as go-betweens if they were willing to care not to get too close to possible eventual work at their own risk and initiative to achieve international boundaries. joint development. These oil firms would need The Japan-South Korea joint development to formulate their operating agreements not arrangement sets an interesting precedent in only to suit their own requirements but also East Asia, as does the recommendation by the those of the governments concerned. conciliation commission for a joint develop• Although national security issues raise ques• ment scheme for the Jan Mayen area between tions of whether and at what time the spirit of Iceland and Norway. The latter case shows cooperation and agreement necessary for joint the importance of the security aspect and mu• development exists, the realities of the re• tual dependence in arriving at a joint develop• source potential of the Bering Sea and the Arc• ment solution. Conflicts over resource sharing tic area are such that some form of joint devel• are not themselves an obstacle to the establish• opment of shared resources between the Soviet ment of joint development areas but rather Union and the United States is inevitable. might be a prerequisite, since they are an indi•

28 APPENDIX 1 List of Participants

DR. CHARAN ACHALABHUTI DR. FERE I DUN FES HARAKI Deputy Governor for Natural Gas Operation Research Associate Petroleum Authority of Thailand East-West Center Vibhavadi Rangsit Rd. Resource Systems Institute Bangkok, Thailand 1777 East-West Road Honolulu. Hawaii. U.SA. MR. DATUK HARUN ARIFKIN Prime Minister's Department DR. WILLIAM K.GEALEY Petroleum Development Division Geological Consultant Kuala Lumpur. Malaysia Chevron Overseas Petroleum Inc. 575 Market St. San Francisco, California, U.S.A. DR. GORDON E. BEAN LANDS Associate DR. H. GARY GREENE Institute for Resource and U.S. Geological Survev MS-99 Environmental Studies 345 Middlefield Rd. Dalhousie University Menlo Park, California, U.SA. 1312Robie Street Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada DR. STUART D. HARKER Regional Chief Geologist DR. SAMUEL H. CLARKE Occidental Exploration and Production Co. Geologist 5000Stockdale Highway Branch of Pacific Marine Geology Bakers field, California, U.S. A. U.S. Geological Survev 3475 Deer Creek Rd.' DR. H. MARTO SUDIRO HARTONO Palo Alto. California, USA. Director Geological Research & Development Center Jalan Diponcgoro 57 DR. ERNEST P.DUBOIS Bandung, Indonesia Sr. Petroleum Geologist CCOP (Committee for Coordination DR. DENN IS E. HAYES of Oflshore Prospecting) Professor c/o ESCAP Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory UN Building Columbia University Bangkok, Thailand Palisades, New York, U.S. A.

MR. BERTRAM EL1SHEWITZ MR.JOHN KINGSTON Consultant Geologist 7335 Fox worth U.S. Geological Survey Dallas, Texas, U.SA. Menlo Park. California, U.SA.

DR. FAN POW-FOONG MR. ROBERT KRUEGER Associate Professor Fin ley, Kumblc, Wagner, Heine, Underberg, Hawaii Institute of Geophysics Manley and Casey University of Hawaii 9100 Wilshire Blvd. Honolulu, Hawaii, USA. Beverly Hills, California, U.SA.

29 DR. RAINER LAGON I MR. FUMIOOKABE Professor and Director Senior Geologist Institute of the Law of the Sea and Maritime Law JAPEX University of Hamburg Akasaka Twin Tower East Wing Rolhenbaumchaussee 36 17-22, Akasaka 2-Chome, Minatoku Hamburg Tokyo, Japan Federal Republic of Germany DR. WILLIAM T ONORATO DR. STEPHEN DANA LEWIS Senior Attorney-Int'l E 8c P Research Scientist Getty Oil Company-Law Dept. Lamont Doherty Geological Observatory 3810 Wilshire Blvd.-Rm 1732 Columbia University Los Angeles, California, USA. Palisades, New York, US.A. MR. WILLY OSTRENG DR. C.Y. Li Director Fellow The Fridtjof Nansen Institute East-West Center The Fridtjof Nansen vei 17 Environment and Policy Institute Lysaker, Norway 1777 East-West Road Honolulu, Hawaii, U.SA. MR. PRAKONG POLAHAN Director of Mineral Fuels Division Department of Mineral Resources MR. BRIAN J. LUECKE Rama VI Road Vice President-Exploration Bangkok, Thailand International Energy Development Corporation GPO Box DI75 MR. NORDIN RAMLI Perth, Western Australia Geologist Pelronas APOLLO MADRID Exploration Dept. Bureau of Energy Development 8th Floor, Wisma Peladang Ministry of Energy Bldg. Jin. Bukil Bintang, Merrit Rd., Fort Bonafacio Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Makati, Philippines DR. KEITH ROBINSON MR. MAURICE MAINGUY Research Geologist Con sultan t US Geological Survey 30 Avenue Du Marechal JolTre Branch Energy Minerals Chatou, France MS 916, Box 25046 Denver, Colorado, USA. MR. MASAHIRO MIYOSHI Professor of International Law MR. ABDUL KANI HJ. MOHD. SALLEH Faculty of Law and Economics Director of Petroleum Unit Aichi University Stale Secretariat 1-1 MachihaLa Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei Toyohashi, Japan DR. HANS U SCHLUTER DR. ROBERTC. MUMMERY Diploma Geology Chief Geologist Bundesanstalt fur Geowissenschaften Teknica Resource Development Ltd. und Rohstoffe 1100, 736-61 h Ave. SW Slilleweg2 Calgary, Alberta, Canada Hannover Federal Republic of Germany DR. NORIYUKI NASU DR. GLENN L. SHEPHERD Director and Professor Senior Geological Associate Ocean Research Institute Cities Service East Asia Inc. University of Tokyo 11 Dhoby Ghaut 1-15-1, Minamidai, Nakano-ku #1305 Cathay Bldg. Tokyo, Japan Singapore

30 DR. CORA/ON M. SIDDAYAO MR. MOHAMMAD AZHARI WARGA-DALEM Research Associate Deputy Head, Foreign Contractors East-West Center Coordinating Agency Resource Sysieins Institute Penamina Head Office 1777 East-Wesl Road I A, Jalan Merdeka Timur Honolulu, Hawaii, U.S.A. Jakarta, Indonesia

DR. TOUFIQ SIDDIQI MR. GATOT KARIYOSO WIROYUDO Research Associate and Assistant Director Senior Geologist East-West Center Pertain ina Environment and Policy Institute Division of Research 8c Development 1777 East-West Road Exploration 8c Production Directorate Honolulu, Hawaii, U.SA. 1 A, Jalan Merdeka Timur Jakarta, Indonesia MR. SI-CHIH SUN Chief Geologist MR. ABIRATNO WONGSOSANTIKO Chinese Petroleum Corporal ion Senior Geologist #83, Chung Hwa Road Amoseas Indonesia Inc. Taipei, Taiwan, China Jalan Kebonsirih52 Jakarta, Indonesia DR. BRIAN TAYLOR Assistant Professor MR. WUJINGMIN Hawaii Institute of Geophysics South China Sea Geological 2525Correa Rd. Ministry of Geology and Mineral Resources Honolulu, Hawaii, U.SA. Guangzhou, China

DR. MAURICE J. TERM AN MR. PAULC YUAN Chief, Asian and Pacific Geology Professor-in-Residence and Senior Researcher OH ice of International Geology Kansas City Law School U.S. Geological Survey University of Missouri National Center, MS 917 5400 RockhillRd. Reston, Virginia, U.S.A. Kansas City, Missouri, U.SA.

DR. MARK J. VALENCIA MR. XIA KAN YUAN Research Associate South China Sea Institute of Oceanology East-West Center Academia Sinica Environment and Policy Institute 58 Xin Gang Road 1 777 Easi-Wesi Road Guangzhou, China Honolulu, Hawaii, U.SA. Jakarta, Indonesia

DR.JON VAN DYKE MR. TZEN-FU YU1 Research Associate Hawaii Institute of Geophysics East-West Center 2525Correa Rd. Environment and Policy Institute Honolulu, Hawaii, U.SA. 1777 East-West Road Honolulu. Hawaii, U.SA.

31 APPENDIX 2 Workshop Agenda

Monday Morning August 22 8:00-9:00 a.m. Registration 9:00 a.m. In Chair: C. Y.Li Welcome: Victor Li, President East-Wesl Center Statements by Representatives of Organizing and Sponsoring Organizations: Mark J. Valencia (on behalf of EAPI) Mohammad A. Warga-Dalem (on behalf of ASCOPE) Noriyuki Nasu (on behalf of IOC) 9:30 a.m. Coffee Break Session I: Update on Offshore Hydrocarbon Development and Potential in Countries Bordering the South China Sea In Chair: C.Y.Li 9:45 a.m. Introductory Remarks 10:00 a.m. I-A. "An overview of the geology and hydrocarbon prospects in central and northern parts of the South China Sea," by Wu Jingmin 10:30 a.m. l-B. "A study on the seismic waves of the basement of oil-bearing basins off the Pearl river mouth region of the South China Sea," by Xia Kan Yuan 11:00 a.m. I-C. "Geology and Bouguer gravity anomalies of Hainan Island and vicinity," by Fan Pow-Foong 11:30 a.m. I-D. "The Cenozoic tectonic evaluation of offshore Taiwan " by Si-Chih Sun 12:00 noon Lunch

Monday Afternoon Session I —continued August 22 In Chair: C.Y. Li 1:30-2:30 p.m. Discussion 2:30 p.m. Coffee Break Session I—continued In Chair: Charan Achalabhuti 2:45 p.m. I-E. "Tertiary tectonic evolution and related hydrocarbon potential in the Natuna Sea," by Gatot K. Wiroyudo and Abiratno Wongsosantiko 3:45 p.m. I-F. "Exploration review and outlook in the Natuna area," by Gatot K. Wiroyudo 4:15 p.m. Discussion 6:00 p.m. EWC Buffet at Queen Kapiolani Hotel

Tuesday Morning Session / — continued August 23 In Chair: Charan Achalabhuti 9:00 a.m. I-H. "Offshore hydrocarbon development and potential in Malaysia" by Nordin Ramli 9:30 a.m. I-I. "Petroleum exploration in Thailand," by Prakong Polahan 10:00 a.m. I-J. "Offshore hydrocarbon development and potential in the Gulf of Thailand," by Charan Achalabhuti

32 10:30 a.m. Coffee Break 10:45 a.m. l-K. "Deepwater hydrocarbon potential of the Philippines" by Apollo Madrid 11:15a.m. Discussion 12:00 noon Lunch

Tuesday Afternoon Session I —continued August 23 In Chair: SK. Chung 1:30 p.m. 1-L. "Tertiary sedimentary basins of the Gulf of Thailand and South China Sea," by Ernest P. Du Bois 2:00 p.m. I-M. "Pre-Tertiary hydrocarbon potential of the South China Sea," by Maurice Mainguy and Henri Fontaine 2:30 p.m. Coffee Break 2:45 p.m. l-N. "Methodology of estimates and some assessments of undiscovered hydrocarbon resources in selected areas of the South China Sea," by Keith Robinson 3:15 p.m. I-O. 'Margins of the southeast sub-basin of the South China Sea — A frontier exploration target?" by Dennis E. Hayes 3:45 p.m. I-P. 'Useof seislog for basin evaluation and field development," by Robert C. Mummery 4:15 p.m. 'Assessment of undiscovered oil and gas," by Ernest P. Du Bois '-9 4:30 p.m. Discussion

Wednesday Morning Session II: Update on Geology and Geophysics of the South China Sea August 24 In Chair: Gary H. Greene 9:00 a.m. I- A. "Plate tectonic evolution of the western Pacific Indian Ocean and bordering continental areas," by William K. Gealey 9:30 a.m. II- B. "Origin and history of the South China Sea Basin," by Brian Taylor and . Dennis E. Hayes 10:00 a.m. Coffee Break 10:15a.m. 1I-C. "Structure and tectonics of the Manila Trench system," by Dennis E. Hayes and Stephen D. Lewis 10:45 a.m. II-D. "Forearc basin development along western Luzon, Philippines," by Stephen D. Lewis and Dennis E Hayes 11:15a.m. Il-E. "ResultsofSorm*CruiseSO-23 and SO-27," by Hans U. Schliiter and K. Hinz II :45 a.m. II- F. "Oxygen isotope studies of planktonic foraminifera from the South China Sea core (V19-134)," by Chen Ming-Sue et al. 12:15 p.m. Lunch

Wednesday Afternoon Session III: Regional Synthesis August 24 In Chair: Dennis E. Hayes 1:30 p.m. 11 I-A. "CCOP-IOC Programme on Studies in East Asia Tectonics and Resources (SEATAR)," by Ernest P. Du Bois and Noriyuki Nasu 2:00 p.m. I II-B. "CCOP's report of the Economic Advisory Panel on mineral and hydrocarbon resources," by the Representative of CCOP 30 p.m. Coffee Break 45 p.m. III- C. "ASCOPE/CCOPJoint Program," by Mohammad A. Warga-Dalem 15 p.m. III- D. "New IOC Programmes on Ocean Sciences in relation to non-living resources," by Noriyuki Nasu 3:45 p.m. Discussion 6:30 p.m. PRI Banquet: China House, Ala Moana Center .

Thursday Morning Session IV: Environmental Aspects of Offshore Hydrocarbon Exploration August 25 and Exploitation In Chair: Toufiq Siddiqi 9:00 a.m. IV- A. "Environmental impact assessment of offshore explorations: Lessons of a decade of experience in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada," by Gordon E. Beanlands

33 9:30 a.m. 1V-B. "Report of ASCOPE Workshopon Offshore Geological and Natural Environmental Hazards," by Mohammad A. Warga-Dalem 10:00 a.m. IV- C. "South China Sea: Hypothetical oil spill trajectories and transnational impact" by Mark J. Valencia etal. 10:30 a.m. Coffee Break

Session V: Joint Research* Investigation, and Development In Chair: Datuk Harun Ariffin 10:45 a.m. V- l A. "A summary of results of discussions on agenda items U and 111 concerning joint research and investigation so far undertaken and to be carried out" by C. Y. Li 11:00 a.m. V-1B. "Petroleum supply and demand in the Asia-Pacific region: Structural changes, options, and vulnerabilities in the 1980s," by Fereidun Fesharaki 11:30 a.m. Discussion 12:00 noon Lunch

Thursday Afternoon August 25 1:00 p.m. V-2 A. "Arrangements for joint development pending resolution of boundaries," by Rainer Lagoni 1:30 p.m. V-2B. "Southeast Asian Seas: Hydrocarbon potential and unresolved boundaries," by Mark J. Valencia 2:00 p.m. Coffee Break 2:15 p.m. V-2C. "The Malaysian philosophy of joint development," by Datuk Harun Ariffin 2:45 p.m. V-2D. "China's sovereignty over its offshore oil and the new Law of the Sea," by PaulC. Yuan 3:15 p.m. V-2E. "The Japan-South Korea joint development arrangement," by Masahiro Miyoshi 3:45 p.m. V-2F. "The Norway-Iceland arrangement for Jan Mayen," by Willy Ostreng 4:15 p.m. V-2G. "A case study in joint development: The partitioned neutral zone (Saudi Arabia/Kuwait)" by William T. Onorato 4:45 p.m. V-2H. "Bering Sea petroleum: A new meeting ground by the Soviet Union and the United States," by Robert Krueger

Friday Morning There will be two panels. August 26 9:00 a.m. Panel I will be chaired by Dennis E. Hayes and have as its terms of references: 1. To review offshore development and potential in countries bordering the South China Sea and in the sea itself (Rapporteur: Ernest P. Du Bois); 2. To consider further action to be taken in the field of marine geology and geophysics (Rapporteur: Brian Taylor); 3. To review the development of the SEATAR Program (Rapporteur: Stephen D. Lewis); 4. To consider joint studies, research, and surveys through regional cooperation (Rapporteur: H. Gary Greene); and 5. To strengthen close cooperation among ASCOPE, CCOP, IOC, EAPI, and other regional and international organizations (Rapporteur: C. Y. Li).

Panel II will be chaired by Datuk Harun ArifFin and will consider lessons learned from precedents in joint development that may be applied elsewhere (Rapporteur: Masahiro Miyoshi). 2:00 p.m. Concluding Session 1. Consideration of the Report of Panel I 2. Consideration of the Report of Panel II 3: Adoption of Recommendations

34

THE EAST-WEST CENTER is an educational institution established in Hawaii in 1960 by the United States Congress. The Center's mandate is "to promote better relations and understanding among the na• tions of Asia, the Pacific, and the United States through cooperative study, training, and research." Each year nearly 2,000 graduate students, scholars, professionals in business and government, and visit• ing specialists engage in research with the Center's international staff on major issues and problems facing the Asian and Pacific region. Since 1960, more than 30,000 men and women from the region have partici• pated in the Center's cooperative programs. The Center's research and educational activities are conducted in four institutes —Culture and Commu• nication, Environment and Policy, Population, and Resource Systems—and in its Pacific Islands Develop• ment Program, Open Grants, and Centerwide Programs. Although principal funding continues to come from the U.S. Congress, more than 20 Asian and Pacific governments, as well as private agencies and corporations, have provided contributions for program sup• port. The East-West Center is a public, nonprofit corporation with an international board of governors.

THE EAST-WEST ENVIRONMENT AND POLICY INSTITUTE was established in October 1977 to increase understanding of the interrelationships among policies designed to meet a broad range of human and societal needs over time and the natural systems and resources on which these policies depend or impact. Through interdisciplinary and multinational programs of research, study, and training, the Insti• tute seeks to develop and apply concepts and approaches useful in identifying alternatives available to deci• sion makers and in assessing the implications of such choices. Progress and results of Institute programs are disseminated in the East-West Center region through research reports, books, workshop reports, working papers, newsletters, and other educational and informational materials.

William H. Matthews, Director East-West Environment and Policy Institute East-West Center 1777 East-West Road Honolulu, Hawaii 96848

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