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Market Demand Analysis MARKET DEMAND ANALYSIS Proposed 392-Room Resort Hotel to be Located within the Sand Canyon Country Club Sand Canyon Road and Robinson Ranch Road Santa Clarita, California Client #18-487LA-0145 Mr. Kenneth Striplin City of Santa Clarita 23920 Valencia Boulevard, Suite 300 Santa Clarita, California 91355 COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SERVICES Bruce Baltin CBRE, Inc. th Managing Director 400 South Hope Street, 25 Floor CBRE Hotels Advisory Los Angeles, CA 90071 +1 213 613 3375 Office [email protected] www.cbrehotels.com March 12, 2019 Mr. Kenneth Striplin City of Santa Clarita 23920 Valencia Boulevard, Suite 300 Santa Clarita, California 91355 Dear Mr. Striplin: In accordance with our agreement, we have completed our analysis of potential market demand and prepared a statement of estimated annual operating results for the proposed 392-room Sand Canyon Resort & Spa to be located in Santa Clarita, California. The conclusions reached are based on our knowledge of the competitive lodging market as of the completion of our fieldwork in October 2018 and this report during the period from December 2018 to February 2019. The following report summarizes our findings and reflects the conclusion of our analysis. As in all studies of this type, the estimated results are based upon competent and efficient management and presume no significant change in the competitive market from that as set forth in this report. Since our results are based on estimates and assumptions that are subject to uncertainty and variation, we do not represent them as results that will actually be achieved. It is expressly understood that the scope of our study and report thereon do not include the possible impact of zoning or environmental regulations, licensing requirements or other restrictions concerning the project, except where such matters have been brought to our attention and are disclosed in the report. The terms of this engagement are such that we have no obligation to revise this report to reflect events or conditions which occur subsequent to the date of completion of our fieldwork; however, we are available to discuss the necessity for revision in view of changes in the economy or market factors which have a material effect on the proposed property. This report was prepared for your internal use to assist you in analyzing the potential market position of the subject hotel. Neither our name nor the material submitted may be included in any prospectus or as part of any printed material or used in offerings or representations in connection with the sale of securities or participation interest to the public, without prior written consent. This report is subject to the Terms and Conditions presented in the Addenda, as well as to the assumptions presented herein. March 12, 2019 Proposed Sand Canyon Resort, Santa Clarita, California The City of Santa Clarita Page ii We appreciate the opportunity of working on this assignment and look forward to answering any questions you may have regarding our findings and conclusions presented herein. Sincerely, Bruce Baltin Managing Director CBRE Hotels Advisory iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Number SECTION I INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................. I-1 OVERVIEW OF THE MARKET STUDY ........................................................... I-1 ASSUMPTIONS USED FOR PROJECTIONS ................................................... I-1 METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................... I-1 AREA REVIEW .......................................................................................... I-2 MARKET RESEARCH .................................................................................. I-2 PREPARATION OF MARKET SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATES ....................... I-2 SUBJECT OCCUPANCY AND AVERAGE DAILY RATE PROJECTIONS ................. I-2 ESTIMATED ANNUAL OPERATING RESULTS ................................................. I-3 SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS .................................................................. I-3 HISTORICAL MARKET PERFORMANCE AND MARKET SHARE ESTIMATES ........... I-3 SECTION II ANALYSIS OF SITE LOCATION ......................................................................... II-1 ACCESS AND VISIBILITY ........................................................................... II-5 RELATIONSHIP TO DEMAND GENERATORS ................................................ II-5 Transient ..................................................................................... II-5 Group ......................................................................................... II-5 SITE CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................... II-6 FACILITIES RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................... II-7 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................... II-7 DESTINATION RESORTS .......................................................................... II-7 Guestrooms ................................................................................. II-7 Food and Beverage ....................................................................... II-8 Meeting Space .............................................................................. II-8 Spa Facilities ................................................................................ II-9 Other Facilities and Amenities ......................................................... II-9 Facility Conclusions ..................................................................... II-10 SECTION III AREA REVIEW ................................................................................................. III-2 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................... III-2 LOS ANGELES COUNTY OVERVIEW ......................................................... III-2 Office Market .............................................................................. III-4 REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE .................................................................. III-5 Port of Los Angeles/Long Beach ...................................................... III-5 Rail and Bus ................................................................................ III-6 TOURISM INDICATORS .......................................................................... III-7 Los Angeles Convention Center ...................................................... III-8 AREA CONCLUSIONS .......................................................................... III-11 NEIGHBORHOOD ANALYSIS ........................................................................ III-13 CITY OF SANTA CLARITA OVERVIEW ...................................................... III-13 History ..................................................................................... III-13 Employment and Labor Force Trends ............................................. III-13 INDUSTRIAL MARKET ............................................................................ III-14 REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE ................................................................ III-14 iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Number Demographic Overview ............................................................... III-15 Population ...................................................................... III-15 TOURISM ........................................................................................... III-15 Six Flags Magic Mountain ............................................................ III-15 California Institute of the Arts ....................................................... III-16 TELEVISION AND FILM PRODUCTION .................................................... III-16 LOCAL HOTEL MARKET ANALYSIS .......................................................... III-16 Competitive Supply in Santa Clarita .............................................. III-16 CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ............................. III-17 SECTION IV HOTEL MARKET ANALYSIS .............................................................................. IV-1 OVERVIEW ............................................................................................ IV-1 Competitive Resort Market Analysis ................................................. IV-1 Additions to Supply ....................................................................... IV-6 HOTEL ROOMS DEMAND ....................................................................... IV-6 Historical Performance of the Competitive Supply .............................. IV-7 MIX OF DEMAND .................................................................................. IV-8 Transient Demand Segment ............................................................ IV-8 Group Demand Segment ............................................................... IV-8 Summary of Demand Growth and Market Occupancies ...................... IV-9 PROJECTED MARKET PERFORMANCE OF THE SUBJECT HOTEL .................. IV-11 Penetration Analysis .................................................................... IV-11 Penetration of Subject ................................................................. IV-11 Transient Demand ............................................................ IV-12 Group Demand ............................................................... IV-12 Overall Mix, Penetration, and Occupancy ...................................... IV-12 AVERAGE DAILY
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