The 2021 Santa Clarita Valley Economic Outlook Volume 21 • Number 1 March 2021
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SANTA CLARITA VALLEY 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK The 2021 Santa Clarita Valley Economic Outlook Volume 21 • Number 1 March 2021 This publication was prepared by: The California Economic Forecast Mark Schniepp, Director 5385 Hollister Avenue, Box 207 Santa Barbara, California 93111 (805) 692-2498 [email protected] Visit our website at: www.californiaforecast.com Copyright 2021 by the California Economic Forecast Reproduction of this document or any portion therein is prohibited without the expressed written permission of the California Economic Forecast. All queries regarding this publication should be directed to the California Economic Forecast. 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 1 SANTA CLARITA VALLEY 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Table of Contents Executive Summary 3 Employment and Workforce 17 Residential Real Estate 29 Commercial Real Estate 35 New Development 41 Acknowledgements 53 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY General U.S. Economy California The Santa Clarita Valley The Outlook 3 CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC FORECAST EXECUTIVE SUMMARY / SANTA CLARITA VALLEY 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Executive Summary by Mark Schniepp March 23, 2021 index Consumer Sentiment / University of Michigan Survey General U.S. Economy 1985=100 September 2017 -- March 2021 100 After the first 90 days of 2021, the evidence 95 on the U.S. economy remains mixed. Through 90 December, the economy was losing momentum 85 as new restrictions on businesses were 80 mandated during the winter surge in COVID-19 cases. 75 70 The surge has clearly abated and despite new 65 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21 predictions of another surge by infectious health professionals, we believe the pandemic is now fading away. The recession that gripped the construction, manufacturing, and consumer economy last year is over; it probably ended in spending on goods. The technology sectors June of 2020. In fact, the risk of the economy also remain solid and growing, especially in falling into another recession over the next 6 California. months is currently very low. The general labor market is the weak link today. Many sectors have fully recovered from There are 9.5 million people that are jobless the scourge of the pandemic, including nationwide and 1.7 million in California. This is of course due principally to the restrictions Probability of Recession / U.S. still in place on high human contact activities, percent the probability that the U.S. economy will be in recession in 6 months likelihood January 2018 -- January 2021 especially food services, entertainment, bars, 100 personal services, and any event that draws 80 large public gatherings. 60 The other weak link is consumer and business 40 sentiment. Assessments by U.S. business owners of current conditions are dour, 20 consistent with an economy in recession even 0 though the recession is clearly over. Consumers Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 are just starting to respond positively to current 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY conditions; their spending is rising and they ARP Spending in 2021 and the Forecast feel slightly more optimistic about their future incomes and job prospects, and more optimistic Another fiscal stimulus is coming. The $1.9 about declining rates of infection. trillion American Rescue Plan was signed by President Biden on March 12. This first major As more of the population is vaccinated, the component of fiscal spending in the Biden confidence in the economy should continue to era is (1) direct relief to individuals, (2) relief to increase. Respondents have already indicated state and local governments, and (3) business they are encouraged by the availability and assistance. The forecast for 2021 assumes that dissemination of the vaccine. much of the additional $1.9 trillion will enter the economy, beginning at the end of March and Without schools opening, supportive continuing through the summer of 2021. A total business activity has precipitously declined. of $1.1 billion will be spent in calendar 2021 and Transportation, janitorial services, food services, $500 billion next year. sporting events, competitions, and extra- curricular programs are extremely limited or The other $300 billion occurs thereafter. This non-existent. will produce stabilization of income for many workers and certainly for many cities and Many activities that are closed or limited would counties, bolstering public sector expenditures normally generate taxes to local governments, on goods, services, and workers this year. particularly hotel taxes, sales taxes, parking taxes, and business license taxes. The stimulus bill will hasten growth in the spring Consequently, there is a revenue crisis for cities and summer months, and if restrictions are and counties which has produced serious public largely lifted, a surge in output and employment sector employee layoffs in fiscal 2020-2021. will occur this year. The stock market continues to soar, keeping 401K accounts, institutional retirement percent Real Gross Domestic Product Growth / U.S. change 2015 -- 2023 accounts, pension accounts, and family 8 portfolios at record high valuations. These stock 6.3 6 price valuations may have gotten ahead of the 4.6 4 economy. It will be great for consumers if stock 3.1 3.0 2.7 1.7 2.2 values are maintained, but corrections in the 2 market are probably overdue and there are many 0 0.0 analysts who believe the link between the stock -2 market and the economy will be reestablished -4 -3.5 sometime in the next few months. -6 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 5 CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC FORECAST EXECUTIVE SUMMARY / SANTA CLARITA VALLEY 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GDP is expected to rise 6.3 percent this year, It is assumed that herd immunity is reached in adjusted for inflation, representing the strongest September, which requires 70 to 85 percent of year of growth in the last 60 years. The U.S. the population having been vaccinated. This economy is then forecast to grow 4.6 percent seems to be on track, but it will take years for next year. These rates are considerably higher herd immunity to be achieved globally, probably than the 2.3 percent average annual rate during not until late 2024 or early 2025. the recovery from the Great Recession between 2010 and 2019. California Vaccinations The fate of the state’s economy is directly linked to the growth of daily coronavirus cases. This is The push to have the U.S. population unlike other states like the Dakotas, Missouri or vaccinated against the coronavirus is moving Florida which have weathered the ebb and flow as fast as possible but there is still much room of the pandemic but have maintained relatively for improvement. Vaccinations started in mid- wide-open economies since late summer. December and as of March 21st the U.S. has eclipsed 110 million shots. The California economy has been severely impacted by the shutdowns, and full recovery Nationwide, the latest vaccination rate is 2.4 is not expected this year, despite the current million doses per day, on average. At this rate it abatement in daily cases and the wide will take another 5 months to provide 75 percent distribution of the vaccine. of the population with a full vaccine dose. The pace of vaccination has been rising; earlier The shelter-at-home order that restrained shortages of vaccinators and the vaccine itself economic activity in December and January have increased. Additional supplies are now resulted in a relapse of joblessness. Employment being addressed nationwide as the Johnson & sank in January and the unemployment rate Johnson vaccine rolls out. rose to 9.2 percent. The lockdown was lifted on January 25, but very little traction in the As of March 22, 13.5 percent of the population Daily New COVID-19 Cases / California 16 years and older has received both shots. daily new confirmed cases October 29, 2020 -- March 21, 2021 Vaccinations are outnumbering the number of 48,000 44,000 new confirmed cases. The number of COVID-19 40,000 patients in the hospital has precipitously 36,000 32,000 declined. 28,000 24,000 20,000 The U.S. has secured 300 million more 16,000 12,000 coronavirus vaccine doses. The new deals 8,000 would bring the total number of doses to 600 4,000 0 million, enough to inoculate 400 million people. 10/29 11/11 11/24 12/7 12/20 1/2 1/15 1/28 2/10 2/23 3/8 3/21 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Monthly Job Gains / California Manufacturing Index / California thousands index we are of jobs January 2020 -- January 2021 2017 Q1 -- 2021 Q1 created 68 here 500 64 250 0 60 -250 -500 56 -750 -1,000 jobs lost 52 -1,250 jobs recovered: -1,500 March May through January 48 -1,750 and April 44 -2,000 -2,250 40 -2,500 2017Q1 2018Q1 2019Q1 2020Q1 2021Q1 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Source: Chapman University economy has occurred since. Currently, the Construction workers are back. New home state’s visitor services, concert, convention, building is sharply higher together with sporting and meeting events, and restaurant infrastructure projects including the high speed sectors remain largely closed or severely rail. The project now employs a record 5,000 restricted. workers in the Central Valley. Consequently, nearly half of all labor market It appears that manufacturing has generally declines are epicentered in the leisure and recovered though employment in this sector has hospitality sector that includes restaurants, not. We don’t expect a jobs recovery because hotels, catering and other food services, the rapid adoption of automation is displacing entertainment, meeting, and recreation services. workers in the industrial sector.