Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Version 1 | Bloomberg: 1876 HK Equity | Reuters: 1876.HK Refer to Important Disclosures at the End of This Report
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China / Hong Kong Company Guide Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Version 1 | Bloomberg: 1876 HK Equity | Reuters: 1876.HK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research. Equity 25 Feb 2020 Brewing confidence in the APAC leader BUY(Initiating Coverage) Last Traded Price ( 24 Feb 2020):HK$23.55(HSI : 26,821) • Largest beer company in sales value terms with unparalleled Price Target 12-mth:HK$31.98 (35.8% upside) profitability in APAC • Keen focus on premiumisation despite short-term blow to Vincent YANG+852 36684197, [email protected] consumer sentiment Mavis Hui +852 36684188, [email protected] • Potential acquisitions to tap growth opportunities in SEA • With decent progress in premiumisation and ongoing Price Relative operational improvements, we initiate coverage with a BUY call and SOTP-based TP of HK$31.98 Premiumisation as a key to growth. As the largest beer company in sales value terms with unparalleled profitability in the Asia Pacific region, we believe BUD APAC possesses great premiumisation potential due to its ongoing product mix upgrade and market share gain via its comprehensive brand matrix and strong sales network. We believe the company could see 8% normalized EBITDA and 12% core pre-tax earnings CAGR during FY19-21F, along with improving Forecasts and Valuation margins helped by efficiency enhancement on multiple fronts. FY Dec (US$m) 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F Turnover 6,740 6,577 6,444 7,034 Where we differ: Turning positive on the medium-term outlook. EBITDA 1,994 2,184 2,223 2,537 Pre-tax Profit 1,255 1,463 1,621 1,946 Despite potential short-term headwinds in 1H20F, including 1) higher Net Profit 958 1,008 1,215 1,459 base due to advanced shipment in 1H19, 2) coronavirus outbreak to Core profit 1,000 1,128 1,255 1,499 drag on-premise consumption in both China and S. Korea, and 3) Core Profit Gth (%) 61.6 12.8 11.2 19.4 EPS (US$) 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.11 weak sales volume recovery in S. Korea, we are turning more positive Core EPS (HK$) 0.59 0.66 0.74 0.88 on the company’s medium-term prospects given its diversified effort EPS Gth (%) 66.9 5.2 20.5 20.1 to address channel weakness, intact high-end branding and potential Core EPS Gth (%) 61.6 12.8 11.2 19.4 Diluted EPS (HK$) 0.56 0.59 0.71 0.86 sales rebound starting from 2H20F. DPS (HK$) 0.23 0.24 0.29 0.34 BV Per Share (HK$) 5.97 6.11 6.58 7.11 Other business growth drivers: On top of the ongoing margin uplift PE (X) 41.8 39.7 33.0 27.5 boosted by local production of international brands in both China and CorePE (X) 40.0 35.5 31.9 26.7 P/Cash Flow (X) 23.8 23.2 22.8 18.3 South Korea, as well as higher production capacity utilisation, we P/Free CF (X) 36.9 34.4 33.5 24.7 believe BUD APAC has other business growth drivers including EV/EBITDA (X) 19.3 17.6 16.9 14.4 potential M&As and per capita beer consumption growth in emerging Net Div Yield (%) 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.5 P/Book Value (X) 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.3 countries in the long term. Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH CASH CASH CASH Valuation: ROAE(%) 9.4 9.8 11.3 12.5 Our SOTP-based TP of HK$31.98 values APAC West (mostly China) Earnings Rev (%): New New New Consensus EPS (US$) 0.07 0.09 0.11 at 21x FY21F EV/EBITDA and 15x FY21F EV/EBITDA for APAC East Other Broker Recs: B:12 S: 0 H:2 (mainly South Korea), to reflect our positive view in the medium- Source of all data on this page: Company, DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited term. (“DBS HK”), Thomson Reuters Key Risks to Our View: Intensifying competition, slow recovery in China’s on-premise channel, regulatory risks in principal markets, volatility in raw material prices. At A Glance Issued Capital (m shrs) 11,792 Mkt Cap (HK$m/US$m) 277,702 / 35,629 Major Shareholders (%) AB InBev Brewing Co. Hold. (APAC) Ltd. 87.2 Free Float (%) 12.8 3m Avg. Daily Val. (US$m) 29.57 GICS Industry: Consumer Goods / Beverages ed-TH / sa- CS /AH Company Guide Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Table of Contents SWOT Analysis 3 Premiumisation: Key to growth 4 Ongoing margin uplift 11 Other growth drivers 15 Key Risks 17 Financials 18 Valuation & Peers Comparison 19 Company Background 21 Page 2 Company Guide Budweiser Brewing Company APAC SWOT Analysis Strengths Weaknesses • Recent hiccups in South Korea due to intensified • Largest brewer in Asia Pacific in sales value terms competition and weak consumer sentiment • Market leader in China’s premium beer segment • Relatively higher reliance on nightlife channel, which is • A comprehensive brand portfolio including popular sensitive to policy changes and economic development international and local beer brands • Multinational operations bring difficulties in satisfying • Extensive sales network with more than 6,000 distributors various local tastes and preferences and 2.5mn points of sales across Asia Pacific • Short term headwind: advanced shipment to China in • Solid production capacity of 157m HL within 56 breweries 2Q19 has laid a high base • Dedicated green production focus Opportunities Threats • Growth potential in Asia: 1) increasing beer per capita • Regulatory risks in principal markets consumption, 2) population growth • Increasing competition from local brewers • Expansion in South East Asia where the group currently has • Aging population in both China and South Korea limited exposure • Potential goodwill write-down • Premiumisation continues to be a key theme amongst Asian consumers • Craft beer might see strong demand Source: DBS HK Page 3 Company Guide Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Premiumisation: Key to growth A long-term structural trend. We believe premiumisation is the long-term structural trend of the beer industry in APAC, Market maturity assessment. According to Budweiser’s market and BUD APAC is well positioned for the premiumisation maturity model, we have classified BUD APAC’s markets into growth, especially driven by 1) ongoing consumer preference the following segments based on the maturity of the markets shift to premium products, 2) the market share gain in the and the market share of BUD APAC in the local market. Per premium beer segment. AB InBev’s standard, South Korea and China currently have medium market maturity, although BUD APAC has secured a higher market share in South Korea. Meanwhile, other key markets, e.g. India and Vietnam, still have low market maturity. Market characteristics during different maturity stage Market maturity Low Medium High Household consumption Up to US$3,000 - more than expenditure per capita US$3,000 US$20,000 US$20,000 (2005 constant currency) Per capita consumption 2-3 4-7 8-10 pure alcohol (Liter) Abstinence 60% 48% 26% Beer share of formal 40-80% 50-80% 35-50% alochhol Source: AB InBev Market maturity assessment indicates premiumisation as a major growth driver Source: GlobalData, Company Page 4 Company Guide Budweiser Brewing Company APAC 1) Premiumisation across APAC Retail selling price across selective countries (2018) Price to catch up with world average. Most of the emerging markets in APAC region still have lower-than-world-average US$ per liter beer price, and there is good potential for these emerging 8.0 countries to gradually increase their beer prices. 6.7 7.0 6.6 6.6 Leading growth driver: Premiumisation. According to 6.0 5.0 4.4 GlobalData, the APAC beer industry is expected to see 1.6% 3.9 3.4 growth by volume and 4.9% growth by value during 2018- 4.0 3.3 3.1 2.9 23F. The premium and super premium segment could see 3.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.8 higher CAGRs of 5.6% and 8.5% in volume and value terms 2.0 respectively. 1.0 0.0 USA New… India Brazil Japan China World Mexico Vietnam Thailand Cambodia Philippines s Korea South Source: AB InBev Premium beer growth outpaced overall market (18-23 value Premium beer growth outpaced overall market (18-23 volme CAGR) CAGR) 4.9% 1.6% Overall APAC Overall APAC 8.5% 5.6% 4.7% 1.9% China China 8.5% 4.9% 9.0% 3.9% Vietnam Vietnam 12.3% 8.9% 4.7% 1.9% South Korea South Korea 10.1% 12.3% 5.5% 6.6% India India 10.9% 12.9% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% overall premium & super premium overall premium & super premium Source: GlobalData Source: GlobalData Premium beer: The centre stage of brewery sector. Premium beer has seen growth across the board in APAC, and thanks to that, premium beer has been gradually taking up more volume and value share of the beer industry. By the end of 2023F, it is believed that premium beer will account for 51% and 61% of South Korea and China’s beer retail sales in value terms. Page 5 Company Guide Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Premium share expansion of beer markets in terms of value Premium share expansion of beer markets in terms of volume 18-23F 18-23F CA GR 12.3% 10.1% 8.5% 10.9% CA GR 8.9% 11.7% 4.9% 12.9% 70% 45% 42.4% 60.9% 40.2% 60% 40% 52.8% 33.4% 51.1% 51.1% 35% 50% 45.7% 30% 37.2% 24.5% 40% 33.7% 25% 28.6% 19.0% 19.9% 30% 22.9% 20% 16.4% 17.8% 15% 10.9% 11.9% 20% 14.0% 8.8% 10% 7.3% 6.8% 3.6% 10% 5% 0% 0% Vietnam S.