China / Hong Kong Company Guide Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Version 1 | Bloomberg: 1876 HK Equity | Reuters: 1876.HK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research. Equity 25 Feb 2020 Brewing confidence in the APAC leader BUY(Initiating Coverage) Last Traded Price ( 24 Feb 2020):HK$23.55(HSI : 26,821) • Largest beer company in sales value terms with unparalleled Price Target 12-mth:HK$31.98 (35.8% upside) profitability in APAC • Keen focus on premiumisation despite short-term blow to Vincent YANG+852 36684197,
[email protected] consumer sentiment Mavis Hui +852 36684188,
[email protected] • Potential acquisitions to tap growth opportunities in SEA • With decent progress in premiumisation and ongoing Price Relative operational improvements, we initiate coverage with a BUY call and SOTP-based TP of HK$31.98 Premiumisation as a key to growth. As the largest beer company in sales value terms with unparalleled profitability in the Asia Pacific region, we believe BUD APAC possesses great premiumisation potential due to its ongoing product mix upgrade and market share gain via its comprehensive brand matrix and strong sales network. We believe the company could see 8% normalized EBITDA and 12% core pre-tax earnings CAGR during FY19-21F, along with improving Forecasts and Valuation margins helped by efficiency enhancement on multiple fronts. FY Dec (US$m) 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F Turnover 6,740 6,577 6,444 7,034 Where we differ: Turning positive on the medium-term outlook. EBITDA 1,994 2,184 2,223 2,537 Pre-tax Profit 1,255 1,463 1,621 1,946 Despite potential short-term headwinds in 1H20F, including 1) higher Net Profit 958 1,008 1,215 1,459 base due to advanced shipment in 1H19, 2) coronavirus outbreak to Core profit 1,000 1,128 1,255 1,499 drag on-premise consumption in both China and S.