Interview with Kenneth A. Guenther Former Assistant to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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Lloyd Cutler
White House Interview Program DATE: July 8, 1999 INTERVIEWEE: LLOYD CUTLER INTERVIEWER: Martha Kumar With Nancy Kassop MK: May we tape? LC: Yes, but I’d like to have one understanding. I have been misquoted on more than one occasion. I’ll be happy to talk to you about what I think about the transition but I don’t want my name attached to any of it. MK: Okay. So we’ll come back to you for any quotes. We’re going to look at both aspects: the transition itself and then the operations of the office. Working on the theory that one of the things that would be important for people is to understand how an effective operation works, what should they be aiming toward? For example, what is a smooth-running counsel’s office? What are the kinds of relationships that should be established and that sort of thing? So, in addition to looking at the transition, we’re just hoping they’re looking toward effective governance. In your time in Washington, observing many administrations from various distances, you have a good sense of transitions, what works and what doesn’t work. One of the things we want to do is isolate what are the elements of success—just take a number, six elements, five elements—that you think are common to successful transitions. What makes them work? LC: Well, the most important thing to grasp first is how much a White House itself, especially as it starts off after a change in the party occupying the White House, resembles a city hall. -
Jerome H Powell: Challenges for Monetary Policy
For release on delivery 10:00 a.m. EDT (8:00 a.m. local time) August 23, 2019 Challenges for Monetary Policy Remarks by Jerome H. Powell Chair Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at “Challenges for Monetary Policy,” a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Jackson Hole, Wyoming August 23, 2019 This year’s symposium topic is “Challenges for Monetary Policy,” and for the Federal Reserve those challenges flow from our mandate to foster maximum employment and price stability. From this perspective, our economy is now in a favorable place, and I will describe how we are working to sustain these conditions in the face of significant risks we have been monitoring. The current U.S. expansion has entered its 11th year and is now the longest on record. 1 The unemployment rate has fallen steadily throughout the expansion and has been near half-century lows since early 2018. But that rate alone does not fully capture the benefits of this historically strong job market. Labor force participation by people in their prime working years has been rising. While unemployment for minorities generally remains higher than for the workforce as a whole, the rate for African Americans, at 6 percent, is the lowest since the government began tracking it in 1972. For the past few years, wages have been increasing the most for people at the lower end of the wage scale. People who live and work in low- and middle-income communities tell us that this job market is the best anyone can recall. -
What Have We Learned Since October 1979?
Panel Discussion I Moderation.” Recessions have become less fre- What Have We Learned Since quent and milder, and quarter-to-quarter volatility October 1979? in output and employment has declined signifi- cantly as well. The sources of the Great Moderation Ben S. Bernanke remain somewhat controversial, but, as I have argued elsewhere, there is evidence for the view he question asked of this panel is, that improved control of inflation has contributed “What have we learned since October in important measure to this welcome change in 1979?” The evidence suggests that we the economy (Bernanke, 2004). Paul Volcker and have learned quite a bit. Most notably, his colleagues on the Federal Open Market Com- Tmonetary policymakers, political leaders, and mittee deserve enormous credit both for recogniz- the public have been persuaded by two decades ing the crucial importance of achieving low and of experience that low and stable inflation has stable inflation and for the courage and persever- very substantial economic benefits. ance with which they tackled America’s critical This consensus marks a considerable change inflation problem. from the views held by many economists at the I could say much more about Volcker’s time that Paul Volcker became Fed Chairman. In achievement and its lasting benefits, but I am sure 1979, most economists would have agreed that, that many other speakers will cover that ground. in principle, low inflation promotes economic Instead, in my remaining time, I will focus on growth and efficiency in the long run. However, some lessons that economists have drawn from many also believed that, in the range of inflation the Volcker regime regarding the importance of rates typically experienced by industrial countries, credibility in central banking and how that credi- the benefits of low inflation are probably small— bility can be obtained. -
Reforming the Rules That Govern the Fed
Reforming the Rules That Govern the Fed Charles W. Calomiris Abstract The Fed has achieved both of its central objectives – price stability and financial stability – in only about a quarter of its years of operation. What reforms would be likely to improve that performance? This article focuses on two problems that have plagued the Fed throughout its history: adherence to bad ideas, especially to influence from intellectual fads in macroeconomics, which have produced major policy errors; and politicization of the Fed, which leads it to pursue objectives other than price stability and financial stability. Several reforms are proposed to the structure and governance of the Fed, and its policy mandates, which would promote greater diversity of thought and independence from political pressures, which in turn would insulate the Fed from political pressures and make its thinking less susceptible to intellectual fads. Taking Stock The Fed is celebrating its 100th birthday. The celebration has been muted, sometimes even somber, and for good reason: the Fed has achieved both of its central objectives – price stability and financial stability – in only about a quarter of its years of operation. There is one Fed leader, however, whose record receives universal accolades. In one Fed cartoon prepared for high school students, Paul Volcker is lovingly portrayed as a superhero wearing a red cape. Few would object to that characterization. Over the 100-year history of Fed monetary policy, Mr. Volcker’s combination of integrity, judgment, and courage stand alone. Integrity because, prior to his appointment, he leveled with President Carter about his intention to attack inflation aggressively. -
What Have We Learned Since October 1979? by Alan S. Blinder Princeton
What Have We Learned since October 1979? by Alan S. Blinder Princeton University CEPS Working Paper No. 105 April 2005 “What Have We Learned since October 1979?” by Alan S. Blinder Princeton University∗ My good friend Ben Bernanke is always a hard act to follow. When I drafted these remarks, I was concerned that Ben would take all the best points and cover them extremely well, leaving only some crumbs for Ben McCallum and me to pick up. But his decision to concentrate on one issue—central bank credibility—leaves me plenty to talk about. Because Ben was so young in 1979, I’d like to begin by emphasizing that Paul Volcker re-taught the world something it seemed to have forgotten at the time: that tight monetary policy can bring inflation down at substantial, but not devastating, cost. It seems strange to harbor contrary thoughts today, but back then many people believed that 10% inflation was so deeply ingrained in the U.S. economy that we might to doomed to, say, 6-10% inflation for a very long time. For example, Otto Eckstein (1981, pp. 3-4) wrote in a well-known 1981 book that “To bring the core inflation rate down significantly through fiscal and monetary policies alone would require a prolonged deep recession bordering on depression, with the average unemployment rate held above 10%.” More concretely, he estimated that it would require 10 point-years of unemployment to bring the core inflation rate down a single percentage point,1 which is about five times more than called for by the “Brookings rule of thumb.”2 In the event, the Volcker disinflation followed the Brookings rule of thumb rather well. -
FINDING and USING PRESIDENTIAL DISCRETION Organization Should Make Freedom of Choice Possible
A non-partisan consortium of public and private universities and other research organizations, the White House Transition Project focuses on smoothing the transition of power in the American Presidency. Its “Reports” series applies scholarship to specific problems identified by those who have borne the responsibilities for governing. Its “Briefing” series uses extensive interviews with practitioners from the past seven White Houses to produce institutional memories for most of the primary offices in the West Wing operation of the presidency. Find the two publication series of the White House Transition Project, WHTP Reports and Institutional Memory Series Briefing Books on its website: WhiteHouseTransitionProject.org. © The White House Transition Project, 2007 2009-04 PRESIDENTIAL WORK DURING THE FIRST HUNDRED DAYS Terry Sullivan Executive Director, The White House Transition Project Political Science, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Director, Presidential Transition Program, James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy Abstract: This report covers the presidential work schedules of Presidents Dwight Eisenhower through George H. W. Bush during their first 100 days in office. It reports on patterns of work carrying out presidential responsibilities and reviews a number of strategies for expanding the president’s discretion and using that discretion to affect policy. The report concludes that adopting an hierarchical White House organizational structure, one commanded by a White House Chief of Staff, improves the president’s workday, finds more opportunities for discretion, and broadens the cadre of the president’s “inner circle.” It identifies a number of opportunities for increased presidential discretion beyond controlling the numbers of ceremonial events on the president’s schedule. -
Alphachatterbox: the Life and Times of Paul Volcker Cardiff Garcia First of All, Thanks for Talking to Us
Alphachatterbox: the life and times of Paul Volcker Cardiff Garcia First of all, thanks for talking to us. Appreciate it. Paul Volcker You're welcome. We'll see how it goes. Cardiff Garcia Here's where I want to start. When you were studying economics, those were pretty exciting times for the profession. Hayek and Keynes were still debating, Bretton Woods had been established in the mid1940s, central bank independence was still kind of a contentious topic. Who were some of the early influences on the way you think about monetary economics? Who were some of the thinkers that influenced your points of view? Paul Volcker I'm supposed to have some thinkers that influenced me. I don't remember any standing out in particular. For some reason, I took the advanced economic theory course when I was either a freshman or a sophomore at Princeton from a guy named Oskar Morgenstern, who was part of the Jewish intellectuals that moved to the United States before the war. And he was Austrian, so you got a full exposure to the Austrian school of economics. To the best of my memory, and maybe my memory is wrong, I could sit through all those economics classes in Princeton, I don't think the word Keynes was ever mentioned. Cardiff Garcia The word...? [overtalking] Paul Volcker Keynes. John Maynard Keynes. Because the money and banking professor, a guy by the name of [Friedrich] Lutz, another Austrian émigré... they were not Keynesian. And in those days, most professors I guess were not yet Keynesian, or at least it was controversial. -
To Order the Book Visit Amazon.Com Or Call the Publisher at 888.280.7715
“Charles Konigsberg has done a great service for American taxpayers--giving all of us a clear, direct and meaningful guide to the $3 trillion of our money that goes to the government to fund programs that shape our daily lives (for better or worse.) For one used to wading through gobbledygook or impenetrable jargon, the plainspoken, straightforward actual English in this book is especially refreshing. Every American concerned about federal taxing and spending--Democrat, Republican or other, budget analyst or average citizen--should have this book.” Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute “This is an extremely useful book--both for those seeking a comprehensible introduction to the complexities of the federal budget and to practitioners needing a quick refresher course.” Alice M. Rivlin, former Director, Office of Management and Budget, and Congressional Budget Office “Charles Konigsberg, who advised my good friend Pat Moynihan on fiscal policy, explains in clear and concise language why the United States is on a dangerous fiscal path, with entitlement programs, particularly the health care entitlements, growing at an unsustainable rate due to rapidly rising health care costs.” Bob Kerrey, former Senator from Nebraska and co-chair of the Kerrey-Danforth Bipartisan Commission on Entitlement and Tax Reform “Anyone needing to know how the U.S. government raises and spends $3 trillion each year, will find the answer in Charles Konigberg's indispensable guide to the budget process and its consequences. America's Priorities is a must-have reference for all concerned citizens.” Matthew Winkler, Editor-in-Chief, Bloomberg News With two decades of bipartisan experience in the White House and Senate, Charles S. -
BROOKS OHBR005B D. W. Brooks Brian S. Wills
Oral History: BROOKS OHBR005B D. w. Brooks by Brian s. Wills D. W. Brooks Collection OH BROOKS 05B D. W. Brooks Interviewed by Brian s. Wills Date: 07-28-87 Cassette #244 (60 minutes) Side One Brooks: Well, I felt that I had to bring capable people, blacks, into this institution, and I was trying to say to our people that I had to do that, and then, furthermore, I wanted to do it, that if they were capable and they had ability, they were entitled to a job and that I ought to offer them a job. So I wanted them to realize that, but they would be unusual people because they were people who had come off the bottom, whereas most of the white people had started half-way up the ladder. These were people that had started at the bottom of the ladder and had to climb lots further to get to be qualified for the kind of employee that we were going to have, and I was not going to lower our qualifications for employees, black or white. But the black that could qualify, I was going to put them in Gold Kist and they would have to understand that, and so I did that long before we got them in the church, for example [laughter) . I got them in Gold Kist long before then. Now consequently, my relationship with the black community has always been real good. I have been on the boards of trustees, I have helped them build institutions, and I have. (talked) with most of the politicians. -
What Have We Learned Since October 1979? (Central Bank Articles And
Ben S Bernanke: Panel discussion: what have we learned since October 1979? Remarks by Mr Ben S Bernanke, Member of the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve System, to the Conference on Reflections on Monetary Policy 25 Years after October 1979, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, St Louis, Missouri, 8 October 2004. The references for the speech can be found on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System’s website. * * * The question asked of this panel is, “What have we learned since October 1979?” The evidence suggests that we have learned quite a bit. Most notably, monetary policy-makers, political leaders, and the public have been persuaded by two decades of experience that low and stable inflation has very substantial economic benefits. This consensus marks a considerable change from the views held by many economists at the time that Paul Volcker became Fed Chairman. In 1979, most economists would have agreed that, in principle, low inflation promotes economic growth and efficiency in the long run. However, many also believed that, in the range of inflation rates typically experienced by industrial countries, the benefits of low inflation are probably small - particularly when set against the short-run costs of a major disinflation, as the United States faced at that time. Indeed, some economists would have held that low-inflation policies would likely prove counterproductive even in the long run, if an increased focus on inflation inhibited monetary policy-makers from responding adequately to fluctuations in economic activity and employment. As it turned out, the low-inflation era of the past two decades has seen not only significant improvements in economic growth and productivity but also a marked reduction in economic volatility, both in the United States and abroad, a phenomenon that has been dubbed “the Great Moderation.” Recessions have become less frequent and milder, and quarter-to-quarter volatility in output and employment has declined significantly as well. -
Arthur Burns and G. William Miller: the Hapless Inflators
Excerpt from Fed Watching for Fun and Profit Edward Yardeni March 2020 Chapter 3 Arthur Burns and G. William Miller: The Hapless Inflators Fueling the Great Inflation Arthur Burns served as Fed chair from February 1, 1970 to January 31, 1978 under Presidents Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, and Jimmy Carter. Burns was an academic, and the first PhD macroeconomist to head the Fed. He taught economics at both Rutgers University (starting in 1927) and Columbia University (1945), having earned his PhD at the latter. As a doctoral student at Columbia, Burns studied under Wesley Clair Mitchell, a founder of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and its chief researcher. Mitchell brought Burns into the NBER, where Burns began his lifelong research into the business cycle. Together, in 1946, they published Measuring Business Cycles, which introduced the characteristic NBER methods of analyzing business cycles empirically.32 It was Burns who started the NBER’s academic tradition of determining recessions—a role that has been continued by the organization’s Business Cycle Dating Committee. The NBER remains the preeminent authority on dating recessions.[33] Burns served as president and chair of the NBER at points throughout his teaching career. He also chaired the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) from 1953 to 1956 under President Dwight Eisenhower. The CEA was established by the Employment Act of 1946, which stated that it is the responsibility of the federal government to create “conditions under which there will be afforded useful employment for those able, willing, and seeking work, and to promote maximum employment, production, and purchasing power.” The CEA was created to help President Eisenhower and successive Presidents make sure another Great Depression would never happen. -
FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM the First 100 Years
FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM The First 100 Years A CHAPTER IN THE HISTORY OF CENTRAL BANKING FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM The First 100 Years A Chapter in the History of Central Banking n 1913, Albert Einstein was working on his established the second Bank of the United States. It new theory of gravity, Richard Nixon was was also given a 20-year charter and operated from born, and Franklin D. Roosevelt was sworn 1816 to 1836; however, its charter was not renewed in as assistant secretary of the Navy. It was either. After the charter expired, the United States also the year Woodrow Wilson took the oath endured a series of financial crises during the 19th of office as the 28th President of the United and early 20th centuries. Several factors contributed IStates, intent on advocating progressive reform to the crises, including a number of bank failures, and change. One of his biggest reforms occurred which generated waves of bank panics and on December 23, 1913, when he signed the Federal economic instability.2 Reserve Act into law. This landmark legislation When Jay Cooke and Company, the nation’s created the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s largest bank, failed in 1873, a panic erupted, leading central bank.1 to runs on other financial institutions. Within months, the nation’s economic problems deepened as silver A Need for Stability prices dropped after the Coinage Act of 1873 was Why was a central bank needed? The nation passed, which dampened the interests of U.S. silver had tried twice before to establish a central bank miners and led to a recession that lasted until 1879.