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International Economic and Financial Cooperation: New Issues, New Actors, New Responses Geneva Reports on the World Economy 6 International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies (ICMB) International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies 11 A Avenue de la Paix 1202 Geneva Switzerland Tel (41 22) 734 9548 Fax (41 22) 733 3853 Website: www.icmb.ch © 2004 International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) Centre for Economic Policy Research 90-98 Goswell Road London EC1V 7RR UK Tel: +44 (0)20 7878 2900 Fax: +44 (0)20 7878 2999 Email: [email protected] Website: www.cepr.org British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN: 1 898128 84 7 International Economic and Financial Cooperation: New Issues, New Actors, New Responses Geneva Reports on the World Economy 6 Peter B Kenen Council on Foreign Relations and Princeton University Jeffrey R Shafer Citigroup and former US Under Secretary of the Treasury Nigel L Wicks CRESTCo and former Head of HM Treasury Charles Wyplosz Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva and CEPR ICMB INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR MONETARY AND BANKING STUDIES CIMB CENTRE INTERNATIONAL DETUDES MONETAIRES ET BANCAIRES International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies (ICMB) The International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies was created in 1973 as an inde- pendent, non-profit foundation. It is associated with Geneva’s Graduate Institute of International Studies. Its aim is to foster exchange of views between the financial sector, cen- tral banks and academics on issues of common interest. It is financed through grants from banks, financial institutions and central banks. The Center sponsors international conferences, public lectures, original research and publi- cations. It has earned a solid reputation in the Swiss and international banking community where it is known for its contribution to bridging the gap between theory and practice in the field of international banking and finance. In association with CEPR, the Center launched a new series of Geneva Reports on the World Economy in 1999. The four subsequent volumes have attracted considerable interest among practitioners, policy-makers and scholars working on the reform of international financial architecture. The ICMB is non-partisan and does not take any view on policy. Its publications, including the present report, reflect the opinions of the authors, not of ICMB or of any of its spon- soring institutions. President of the Foundation Board Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa Director Charles Wyplosz Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) The Centre for Economic Policy Research is a network of over 600 Research Fellows and Affiliates, based primarily in European universities. The Centre coordinates the research activities of its Fellows and Affiliates and communicates the results to the public and private sectors. CEPR is an entrepreneur, developing research initiatives with the producers, con- sumers and sponsors of research. Established in 1983, CEPR is a European economics research organization with uniquely wide-ranging scope and activities. CEPR is a registered educational charity. Institutional (core) finance for the Centre is pro- vided by major grants from the Economic and Social Research Council, under which an ESRC Resource Centre operates within CEPR; the Esmée Fairbairn Charitable Trust and the Bank of England. The Centre is also supported by the European Central Bank, the Bank for International Settlements, 22 national central banks and 45 companies. None of these organizations gives prior review to the Centre’s publications, nor do they necessarily endorse the views expressed therein. The Centre is pluralist and non-partisan, bringing economic research to bear on the analy- sis of medium- and long-run policy questions. CEPR research may include views on policy, but the Executive Committee of the Centre does not give prior review to its publications, and the Centre takes no institutional policy positions. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors and not those of the Centre for Economic Policy Research. Chair of the Board Guillermo de la Dehesa President Richard Portes Chief Executive Officer Stephen Yeo Research Director Mathias Dewatripont About the Authors Peter B Kenen is a Senior Fellow in International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations and Walker Professor of Economics and International Finance Emeritus at Princeton University, where he also served as Director of the International Finance Section from 1971 to 1999. He taught at Columbia University from 1957 to 1971. A specialist in international economics, he earned his BA from Columbia and his PhD from Harvard. He has written several books, including Exchanges and Policy Coordination, Economic and Monetary Union in Europe, and The International Financial Architecture: What’s New? What’s Missing? He has been a consultant to the US Treasury and other US government agencies and to the International Monetary Fund, and he has held research fellowships award- ed by the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, the Guggenheim Foundation, the Royal Institute for International Affairs, and the Bank of England. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Group of Thirty. Jeffrey R Shafer dealt with international financial and monetary issues during 25 years at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the US Treasury, where he was Assistant Secretary and subsequently Under Secretary for International Affairs. He joined what is now Citigroup in 1997, where he is Vice Chairman, Public Sector Group. Mr Shafer holds a PhD in Economics from Yale University and an AB in Economics from Princeton University. Sir Nigel L Wicks joined HM Treasury in 1968 after working for the British Petroleum Company. He worked for Prime Ministers Harold Wilson, James Callaghan and Margaret Thatcher. He has been the UK's Executive Director at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, the Prime Minister's representative (‘Sherpa’) for the Economic Summits of the Group of Seven Industrialized Nations and G7 ‘Deputy’ for five Chancellors of the Exchequer. From 1989 to 2000, he was the Treasury's Second Permanent Secretary responsible for international financial matters, during which time he was for five years Chairman of the EC Monetary Committee. The UK Prime Minister appointed him as Chair of the Committee on Standards in Public Life for the period March 2001 to April 2004. He is now Deputy Chairman of the securities settlement company Euroclear. He studied Business Administration at Portsmouth College of Technology and holds degrees in History from the Universities of Cambridge and London. Charles Wyplosz is Professor of International Economics at the Graduate Institute of International Studies in Geneva where he is Director of the International Centre for Monetary and Banking Studies. An expert in monetary affairs, currency crises and the international monetary system, Charles Wyplosz has written numerous books and papers. He is a member of several advisory committees to the French government and to the European Commission and Parliament and an occasional consultant to the European Commission, the IMF, the World Bank, the United Nations, the Asian Development Bank, and the Inter-American Development Bank. He holds degrees in Engineering and Statistics from Paris and a PhD in Economics from Harvard University. v Contents List of Conference Participants ix List of Tables xiii List of Figures xiii List of Boxes xiii Acknowledgements xiv Foreword xv Executive Summary xvii Introduction xxi 1 Economic Cooperation since Bretton Woods: A Changing Agenda, New Players and Evolving Arrangements 1 1.1 A new beginning 1 1.2 Bretton Woods: the vision and the reality 3 1.3 Fixed exchange rates under pressure: ad hoc responses drive institutional change 4 1.4 A new monetary system takes shape 6 1.5 Impoverished management of a new system 8 1.6 The parallel track: regional cooperation 16 1.7 The private sector 17 1.8 The situation in 2004 18 Appendix 1A A Glossary of International Financial and Economic Committees, Groups and Clubs 20 Committees 20 Groups 21 Clubs 22 2 International Economic Cooperation: Principles for a Changing World 23 2.1 A changing set of issues 23 2.2 Players and rules of the game 26 2.3 A changing environment 30 2.4 Legitimacy under stress and the anti-globalization backlash 34 2.5 Challenges ahead 35 3 Cross-bborder Debt – Managing the Challenges 39 3.1 Introduction 39 3.2 The need for an international system 39 3.3 Three episodes of stress in debtor and creditor relationships 42 3.4 The need for new techniques, instrumentss and approaches 43 3.5 The role of the fund and the G7 finance ministers and governors 50 Appendix 3A Recent Sovereign Debt Restructurings 59 viii International Economic and Financial Cooperation 4 Enhancing Cooperation to Keep Up with Global Financial Markets 63 4.1 The emergence of financial issues on the international agenda 63 4.2 The present state of financial cooperation 66 4.3 Improving the process 72 5 Balance-oof-ppayments Adjustment among Key Currency Countries 77 5.1 Economic interdependence and policy interdependence 77 5.2 The role of exchange rate changes 79 5.3 Principles and practice 80 5.4 Reforming the management of the adjustment process 83 5.5 The need for a new key
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