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Gastric Cancer in Wales

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Gastric Cancer in Wales Gut: first published as 10.1136/gut.7.5.542 on 1 October 1966. Downloaded from Gut, 1966, 7, 542 Gastric cancer in Wales DAVID J. B. ASHLEY AND H. DUNCAN DAVIES From Morriston Hospital, Swansea EDITORIAL COMMENT Observations that the incidence of gastric cancer varies in different parts of Great Britain have led to a search for environmental factors. This paper is important because it suggests that the variations may be due to genetic rather than environmental causes. Malignant disease of the stomach is a much com- The present report is based on two observations. moner cause of death in the people of Wales than in The first is that of Legon (1963) who noted an undue those living in other parts of the United Kingdom. preponderance of Welsh names among those dying The data from the General Register Officer of gastric cancer in a small area of North Wales. (McKenzie, Case, and Pearson, 1957) show a The second, our own, is based on a map we con- standard mortality ratio for deaths from this cause structed showing the mortality from gastric cancer in in Wales of 125 to 150 for the years 1950 to 1954 and different parts of Wales which corresponds closely our own calculations, which will be presented and to the map published by the General Register Office discussed below, confirm that the crude death rate showing the distribution of Welsh speaking in the for cancer of this organ among men and women counties of Wales (Report on Welsh Speaking over the age of 45 is very much higher in Wales than Population, 1962b). It can be shown that the distri- in the remainder of the country. A second observ- bution of gastric cancer follows closely the distri- ation, perhaps less well known, is that the frequency bution of the Welsh people and that the high http://gut.bmj.com/ of this type of tumour as a cause of death is higher in incidence of this type of neoplasm is a racial, i.e., a the Registrar General's Standard Region Wales II, genetic trait rather than a consequence of local which comprises North and West Wales, than it is in environmental factors. his Standard Region Wales I, which comprises the The major difference in environmental conditions industrial area of South East Wales, the counties of among the inhabitants of England and Wales lies Glamorgan, Monmouth, Carmarthen, and Breck- between the urban and rural habitat. In the case of nock. This observation is convincingly illustrated cancer of the lung a glance at the maps on pages 33 in the recently published National Atlas of Disease and 34 of the Atlas (Howe, 1963) shows a great on September 24, 2021 by guest. Protected copyright. Mortality (Howe, 1963). preponderance of lung tumours in the urban areas This regional distribution ofcancer mortality, and, and particularly in the centres of the conurbations. because of the notoriously low 'cure rate' in gastric The frequency of gastric cancer, on the other hand, carcinoma, the regional incidence of this type of shows only a minor degree of variation between the tumour has excited attention and associations have different types of urban areas and the rural areas. been noted with peaty soil (Legon, 1952; Griffith The standard mortality indices for conurbations, and Davies, 1954; Howe, 1959; Stocks and Davies, urban areas of population more than 100,000, 1960; Millar, 1961), with low 'hardness' in the water urban areas of population 50,000, and rural areas all (Howe, 1959; Millar, 1961), with a high concentra- fall between 90 and 107 and no consistent trend tion of organic carbon in the drinking water appears to exist. The age-specific incidence rates for (Griffith and Davies, 1954), and with the presence of the various types of urban and rural areas were a larger amount of the trace elements chromium calculated separately and were used in the determin- zinc and cobalt in the soil (Stocks and Davies, 1960). ation of expected death rates from this cause. Millar (1961), who studied two rural districts in the Data from the Registrar General's Statistical county of Montgomery, also suggested that there Review of England and Wales (Part I: Medical might be an unusual concentration of natural Tables) for the years 1958, 1959, 1960, and 1961 radioisotopes in the water of such high cancer areas were collated for the 13 counties of Wales and the and that the higher incidence of cancer might be due mortality rates calculated against the total male and to the mutagenic activity of such isotopes. female population over the age of 45 (Tables I and 542 Gut: first published as 10.1136/gut.7.5.542 on 1 October 1966. Downloaded from TABLE I TABLE II MORTAUTY FROM GASTRIC CANCER IN MEN OVER 45 YEARS MORTALITY FROM GASTRIC CANCER IN WOMEN OVER 45 IN THE COUNTIES OF WALES (1958-61) YEARS IN THE COUNTIES OF WALES (1958-61) County Mean Male Cases of Average County Mean Female Cases of Average Population Gastric Annual Population Gastric Annual over 45 Years Carcinoma Mortality Ratel over 45 Years Carcinoma Mortality (thousands) 1,000 (thousands) Rate/l,000 Anglesey 8-9 58 1-635 Anglesey 11-1 30 0 675 Brecon 10-2 43 1-065 Brecon 11-3 26 058 Caernarvon 23-0 178 1-935 Caernarvon 32-0 139 1-09 Cardigan 9-9 75 1-89 Cardigan 12-8 52 1-01 Carmarthen 31-4 174 1-39 Carmarthen 36-8 149 1-01 Denbigh 31-4 191 1-56 Denbigh 39.4 115 0-76 Flint 26-1 133 1275 Flint 32-4 118 0-91 Glamorgan 205 8 1,093 1-335 Glamorgan 24-3 822 085 Merioneth 7 0 37 1-32 Merioneth 8-8 48 1-38 Monmouth 74-9 339 1-14 Monmouth 82-0 257 0-78 Montgomery 8-2 40 1-22 Montgomery 9-2 41 1-12 Pembroke 15 9 87 1-365 Pembroke 18-6 74 1-00 Radnor 3-6 12 0 835 Radnor 4-1 8 049 Mean for England and Wales 0999 Mean for England and Wales 0-628 http://gut.bmj.com/ on September 24, 2021 by guest. Protected copyright. >5/////P I FIG. 1. -l1 < 1 -25 FIG. 2. >1.0 <0-7 FIGS. 1 and 2. Mortality rates with reference to males andfemales over 45 years of age, showing the distribution by counties. Heavy Anglesey Caernarvon Heavy Caernarvon Denbigh Merioneth Cardigan Montgomery Light Flint Cardigan Merioneth Carmarthen Pembroke Pembroke Carmarthen Light Flint Glamorgan Glamorgan 9 Gut: first published as 10.1136/gut.7.5.542 on 1 October 1966. Downloaded from 544 DavidJ. B. Ashley and H. Duncan Davies II) and these are expressed in graphic form in the claimed to be able to speak Welsh. In the counties outline maps Figures 1 and 2. The mortality rates of Anglesey, Caernarvonshire, Cardiganshire, Car- were calculated with reference to the population marthenshire, and Merioneth over 70% of the over the age of 45 because the vast majority of population were Welsh speaking, and in Brecknock, cases (about 98 %) of gastric cancer occur after this Denbigh, Flint, Glamorgan, Montgomery, and age and because the age distributions within the Pembroke and in the county boroughs of Merthyr counties were approximately equivalent. Calculation Tydfil and Swansea between 15 and 45 % of the pop- ofthe mortality rates with reference to the population ulation claimed to be Welsh speaking, while in the over the age of 65 gave results which showed counties of Monmouth and Radnor and in the similar trends and both corresponded with the county boroughs of Cardiff and Newport less than maps drawn on the basis of standard mortality 10% ofthe population were Welsh speaking (Fig. 3). ratios by Howe (1963). In each case the counties of This distribution corresponds well with the Caemarvon, Merioneth, Cardigan, Carmarthen, distribution of the frequencies of gastric cancer in Glamorgan, and Pembroke showed a high incidence men and women. The numbers of deaths from gastric of gastric cancer while Monmouth, Radnor, and cancer for these three areas of Wales were extracted Brecon had a low mortality from this disease. from the Registrar General's Annual Reports for The Registrar General's Report on the Welsh the years 1958 to 1963 and compared with the Speaking Population (1962b) shows that the expected numbers had the mean death rates in the country can be divided into areas according to the whole of England and Wales applied to the Princi- percentage of persons who, at the 1961 census, pality (Table III). The ratio between observed and expected deaths in the high Welsh speaking area was 1 67 for men and 1 69 for women. In the inter- mediate area where the frequency of Welsh speaking was between 15 and 45% the ratios were 1 38 for men and 1-40 for women. In the remaining area where Welsh was spoken by less than 10% of the population the ratios were 1'12 for men and 1 31 for women. A clear association is seen between the frequency of Welsh speaking in the population and the death rate from gastric cancer. http://gut.bmj.com/ TABLE III GASTRIC CANCER DEATHS (1958-62) Percentage Welsh- Male Female speaking Ob- Ex- Ratio Ob- Ex- Ratio served pocted served pected >70 641 383 1-67 512 303 1-69 on September 24, 2021 by guest. Protected copyright. 15.45 1738 1260 1-38 1287 918 1-40 <10 688 612 1-12 568 432 1-31 The population of Wales in each area is hetero- geneous, comprising the Welsh descended from the longstanding inhabitants of the Principality and the immigrants who have arrived mostly within the last hundred years.
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