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Chinese Nuclear Forces and U.S. War Planning 39307 FAS China CVR w/Spine 11/9/06 1:03 PM Page 1 THE FEDERATION of AMERICAN SCIENTISTS & THE FEDERATION of AMERICAN SCIENTISTS & THE NATURAL RESOURCES DEFENSE COUNCIL THE NATURAL RESOURCES DEFENSE COUNCIL C Federation 0f American Scientists h i 1717 K St. NW, Suite 209 • Washington, DC 20036 n Chinese Nuclear Forces e Voice: 202•546•3300 • Fax: 202•675•1010 s Email: [email protected] • Web: www.fas.org e and U.S. Nuclear War Planning N u Natural Resources Defense Council c l 1200 New York Avenue, NW Suite 400 • Washington, DC 20005 e a Voice: 202•289•6868 • Fax: 202•289•1060 r Email: [email protected] • Web: www.nrdc.org F o r c e s a n d U . S . N u c Hans M. Kristensen l e Robert S. Norris a Matthew G. McKinzie r W a r P November 2006 l a n n i n g F A S / N R D C THE FEDERATION of AMERICAN SCIENTISTS & THE NATURAL RESOURCES DEFENSE COUNCIL Chinese Nuclear Forces and U.S. Nuclear War Planning Hans M. Kristensen Robert S. Norris Matthew G. McKinzie November 2006 Dedicated to Sally Lilienthal ABOUT THE AUTHORS Hans M. Kristensen is Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. He is co-author of the Nuclear Notebook column in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and the World Nuclear Forces overview in the SIPRI Yearbook. His research focuses on the evolution of nuclear strategy and operations in the post-Cold War era, and his disclosure of preemptive nuclear strike options in the revised Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations in 2005 caused the Pentagon to cancel the document (see: http://www.nukestrat.com/us/jcs/canceled.htm). Contact: [email protected], (202) 454-4695. Robert S. Norris is a senior research associate with the NRDC nuclear program and director of the Nuclear Weapons Databook project. He is co-editor of the Nuclear Weapons Databook series, the five-volume definitive encyclopedia of the nuclear weapons of the United States, Soviet Union/Russia, Britain, France and China. He is also the author of Racing for the Bomb (2002), a biography of General Leslie R. Groves, the head of the Manhattan Project, which built the atomic bomb during World War II. Contact: [email protected], (202) 289-2369. Matthew G. McKinzie is currently a scientific consultant to the Nuclear Program at the Natural Resources Defense Council. Since obtaining his Ph.D. in experimental nuclear physics, he has worked in the areas of nuclear non-proliferation, the environmental impacts of nuclear weapons production, homeland security and the application of satellite imagery and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to human rights. Contact: [email protected], (202) 299-4393 (cell). © Federation of American Scientists/Natural Resources Defense Council, November 2006 Federation of American Scientists Natural Resources Defense Council 1717 K. Street, NW, Suite 209 1200 New York Avenue, NW, Suite 400 Washington, D.C. 20036 Washington, D.C. 20005 Phone: 202-454-3300 Phone: 202-289-6868 Fax: 202-675-1010 Fax: 202-289-1060 Web: www.fas.org Web: www.nrdc.org This report and supporting material are available on the Internet from the following links: FAS: http://www.nukestrat.com/china/chinareport.htm NRDC: http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/default.asp ISBN: 0-9653386-451500 TABLE OF CONTENTS About the Authors . .ii Table of Contents . .iii List of Figures . .v List of Tables . .viii Abbreviations . .ix Acknowledgements . .x Executive Summary . .1 The United States Has Overpowering Superiority . .2 China’s No-First-Use Policy . .4 A Rationale for Spending and Operations . .7 The Consequences of a Nuclear Strike . .10 Conclusions and Recommendations: We Don’t Need Another Cold War . .12 I. The Debate over China’s Nuclear Modernization . .15 The Office of the Secretary of Defense . .18 Estimates From the Intelligence Community . .21 Congress and the 1999 Cox Report . .23 Congressional Research Service . .28 China’s Nuclear Weapons Policy . .30 II. Estimates of Chinese Nuclear Forces . .35 Nuclear Ballistic Missiles . .46 The Issue of Mobility . .47 The Issue of Multiple Warhead Payloads . .53 The Issue of Missile Ranges . .56 Land-based Ballistic Missiles . .59 Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles . .61 DF-3A (CSS-2) MRBM . .61 DF-21 (CSS-5) MRBM . .64 Long-Range Ballistic Missiles . .67 DF-4 (CSS-3) LRBM . .67 iv | Federation of American Scientists/Natural Resources Defense Council Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles . .71 DF-5A (CSS-4 Mod 2) ICBM . .71 DF-31 (CSS-X-10) ICBM . .73 DF-31A ICBM . .75 Other Nuclear Ballistic Missiles . .76 The Chinese Submarine Force . .77 Nuclear-Powered Ballistic Missile Submarines . .79 Nuclear-Powered Attack Submarines . .86 Submarine Operations . .87 Medium-Range Bombers . .93 Tactical Nuclear Weapons . .98 Nuclear Cruise Missiles . .104 Ballistic Missile Test Launch Facilities . .106 Underground Facilities . .110 Nuclear Weapons Testing . .123 III. China in U.S. Nuclear War Planning . .127 The Role of Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons . .133 Sea-Launched Ballistic Missile Submarines . .135 SSBN Command and Control . .137 “Layer Upon Layer of Options” . .141 A New Deterrent in the Pacific . .148 The Denuclearization of South Korea . .157 China Back in the Crosshairs . .160 The Nuclear Non-Targeting Agreement . .164 Current Nuclear Planning Against China . .166 Recent Upgrades to Weapons and Plans . .170 IV: Simulated U.S. and Chinese Nuclear Strikes . .173 Calculating the Effects of Nuclear Weapons . .174 Scenario One: U.S. Nuclear Strike Against Chinese Long-Range ICBMs . .175 Scenario Two: Chinese Nuclear Strikes Against U.S. Cities . .186 Discussion of Nuclear Strike Simulations . .193 V: Conclusions and Recommendations . .197 Appendix A: Chinese Nuclear Forces, 2006 . .202 Endnotes . .203 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Man to Man ........................................................................................15 Figure 2: Wondering About Chinese Motivations............................................17 Figure 3: House Armed Service Committee Witnesses on China....................28 Figure 4: Chinese Nuclear Ballistic Missile Force Composition 2000-2015 ....42 Figure 5: Chinese Deployed Nuclear Warhead Estimates 2000-2015...............43 Figure 6: Estimated Megatonnage Of China’s Nuclear Arsenal 2006-2015 .....43 Figure 7: Low Estimate For Chinese Nuclear Arsenal 2000-2015....................45 Figure 8: DF-21 Missile Launcher On Narrow Road.........................................47 Figure 9: Mobile Missile Communication .........................................................48 Figure 10: Chinese Missiles On the Move...........................................................49 Figure 11: Russian SS-25 Road-Mobile Missile Base at Novosibirsk..................52 Figure 12: Speculations About Chinese Multiple Warhead Capabilities ...........55 Figure 13: Chinese and U.S. Definitions for Ballistic Missile Ranges................57 Figure 14: Inconsistent DOD Range Estimates For DF-5A ................................58 Figure 15: DF-3A (CSS-2) Medium-Range Ballistic Missile..............................61 Figure 16: DF-3A (CSS-2) Twin Launch Exercise..............................................62 Figure 17: Possible Yidu DF-3 Launch Facility....................................................63 Figure 18: DF-21 (CSS-5) Launchers ..................................................................64 Figure 19: DF-21 (CSS-5) Missile Calibration....................................................65 Figure 20: DF-21s or SAMs at Suixi Airbase ......................................................66 Figure 21: DF-4 (CSS-3) Missile .........................................................................67 Figure 22: Delingha DF-4 Launch Facility ..........................................................68 Figure 23: Delingha DF-4 Launch Facility ..........................................................69 Figure 24: Possible Delingha DF-4 Launch Facility Headquarters......................70 Figure 25: DF-5A (CSS-4) Reentry Vehicle .......................................................71 Figure 26: DF-5 (CSS-4) Silo Launch.................................................................72 Figure 27: DF-31 (CSS-X-10) Launchers ............................................................73 Figure 28: Alleged DF-31 (CSS-X-10) Warhead Section...................................74 Figure 29: DF-31 Missile On Fixed Launch Pad .................................................75 Figure 30: Alleged DF-41 (Abandoned) ICBM ..................................................76 vi | Federation of American Scientists/Natural Resources Defense Council Figure 31: Alleged “New” Missile Launcher........................................................76 Figure 32: U.S. Navy Projection For Chinese Submarine Force ........................77 Figure 33: Chinese Submarine Force 1985-2015.................................................78 Figure 34: Xia-class SSBN in Dry Dock 2005 .....................................................81 Figure 35: Xia-class SSBN In Dry Dock 2005 .....................................................82 Figure 36: Type 094 Class SSBN Missile Configurations....................................83 Figure 37: Julang-1 SLBM....................................................................................83 Figure 38: U.S. Navy Range Estimates For Julang-2 SLBM ...............................84 Figure 39: Han-class (Type-091) Nuclear-Powered Attack Submarine..............86 Figure 40: Shang-class (Type-093) Nuclear-Powered Attack Submarine...........87 Figure 41: Chinese Maritime Reach?...................................................................88
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