Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control: Modernizing Nuclear Arsenals
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SIPRI Yearbook 2018: Armaments, Disarmament and International
world nuclear forces 273 VII. Pakistani nuclear forces shannon n. kile and hans m. kristensen Pakistan continues to prioritize the development and deployment of new nuclear weapons and delivery systems as part of its ‘full spectrum deterrence posture’ vis-à-vis India. It is estimated that Pakistan possessed 140–50 war- heads as of January 2018 (see table 6.8). Pakistan’s nuclear weapon arsenal is likely to expand significantly over the next decade, although estimates of the increase in warhead numbers vary considerably.1 Pakistan is believed to be gradually increasing its military fissile material holdings, which include both plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU) (see section X). Pakistan’s plutonium production complex is located at Khushab in the province of Punjab. It consists of four operational heavy water nuclear reactors and a heavy water production plant.2 Pakistan appears to be increasing its capacity to reprocess spent nuclear fuel—that is, to chemically separate plutonium from irradiated reactor fuel. A small reprocessing plant has been expanded at the New Laboratories facility of the Pakistan Institute of Science and Technology (PINSTECH) near Rawal- pindi. A larger reprocessing plant has been constructed at the Chashma Nuclear Power Complex in Punjab and may already be operational.3 Uranium enrichment takes place at the gas centrifuge plant in the Khan Research Laboratories (KRL) complex at Kahuta in Punjab and at a smaller plant located at Gadwal, also in Punjab. A new uranium enrichment centri- fuge plant may be under construction in the KRL complex at Kahuta.4 Pakistan’s capacity to produce HEU for nuclear weapons is constrained by its limited indigenous supply of natural uranium.5 Aircraft The Pakistan Air Force’s (PAF) Mirage III and Mirage V combat aircraft are the most likely aircraft to have been given a nuclear delivery role. -
SIPRI Yearbook 2018: Armaments, Disarmament and International
world nuclear forces 267 VI. Indian nuclear forces shannon n. kile and hans m. kristensen India is estimated to have a growing arsenal of 130–40 nuclear weapons (see table 6.7). This figure is based on calculations of India’s inventory of weapon-grade plutonium and the number of operational nuclear-capable delivery systems. India is widely believed to be gradually expanding the size of its nuclear weapon stockpile as well as its infrastructure for producing nuclear warheads. Military fissile material production India’s nuclear weapons are believed to be plutonium-based. The plutonium was produced at the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) in Trombay, Mumbai, by the 40-megawatt-thermal (MW(t)) heavy water CIRUS reactor, which was shut down at the end of 2010, and the 100-MW(t) Dhruva heavy water reactor. India operates a plutonium reprocessing plant for military purposes at the BARC.1 India plans to build six fast breeder reactors by the 2030s, which will significantly increase its capacity to produce plutonium that could be used for building weapons.2 An unsafeguarded 500-megawatt-electric (MW(e)) prototype fast breeder reactor (PFBR) is being built at the Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research (IGCAR) complex at Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu. The PFBR is expected to be commissioned in mid-2018 following a series of technical delays.3 The IGCAR has announced that a fast reactor fuel cycle facility will be built at Kalpakkam to reprocess spent fuel from the PFBR and future fast breeder reactors. The plant is scheduled to be commissioned by 2022.4 India is currently expanding its uranium enrichment capabilities. -
Tailored Deterrence - a French Perspective
50 TAILORED DETERRENCE - A FRENCH PERSPECTIVE Bruno TERTRAIS France is not at the forefront of the debate within NATO on the future of deterrence and retains a fairly conservative nuclear policy. However, the evolution of the French nuclear deterrent has been largely in tune with US and UK policies. Nuclear Deterrence With Smaller Arsenals Nuclear weapons will remain the ultimate guarantee of a nation’s survival for the foreseeable future. There is no alternative means of defense on the horizon which may threaten in a credible way the complete destruction of a State as a coherent entity, in just a few minutes. Conventional weapons could conveivably do the job, but only through repeated and multiple raids and with a lesser guarantee of success. Moreover, conventional weapons cannot instill in the adversary’s mind the very peculiar fear induced by nuclear weapons. Biological weapons are arguably as scary as nuclear ones - and perhaps even more so, in particu- lar for public opinion. But their use can be controlled only with difficulty. More importantly, they are not able to physically destroy government buildings, factories, command posts and arsenals. Unless perhaps deployed in space in very large numbers, strategic defenses will not be effective against a large number of missiles equipped with decoys and multiple warheads. Finally, threatening some particular hardened targets will continue to be possible only by nuclear means. But future deterrence will be ensured with smaller nuclear arse- nals. In the coming twenty years, Western nuclear stockpiles will continue *Senior Research Fellow, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, France. 51 to be reduced. -
Nuclear Warheads
OObservatoire des armes nucléaires françaises The Observatory of French Nuclear Weapons looks forward to the elimination of nuclear weapons in conformity with the aims of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. To that end, the Observatory disseminates follow-ups of information in the forms of pamphlets and entries on the World Wide Web: • on the evolution of French nuclear forces; • on the on-going dismantling of nuclear sites, weapons, production facilities, and research; • on waste management and environmental rehabilitation of sites; • on French policy regarding non-proliferation; • on international cooperation (NGO’s, international organizations, nations), toward the elimination of nuclear weapons; • on the evolution of the other nuclear powers’ arsenals. The Observatory of French Nuclear Weapons was created at the beginning of the year 2000 within the Center for Documentation and Research on Peace and Conflicts (CDRPC). It has received support from the W. Alton Jones Foundation and the Ploughshares Fund. C/o CDRPC, 187 montée de Choulans, F-69005 Lyon Tél. 04 78 36 93 03 • Fax 04 78 36 36 83 • e-mail : [email protected] Site Internet : www.obsarm.org Dépôt légal : mai 2001 - 1ère édition • édition anglaise : novembre 2001 ISBN 2-913374-12-3 © CDRPC/Observatoire des armes nucléaires françaises 187, montée de Choulans, 69005 Lyon (France) Table of contents The break-down of nuclear disarmament ....................................................................................................................................... 5 The -
Vito Marcantonio Part 3 of 25
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India's Missile Programme and Odisha : a Study
January - 2015 Odisha Review India's Missile Programme and Odisha : A Study Sai Biswanath Tripathy India’s missile and nuclear weapons programs First, there must be an open, uninhabited stretch have evolved as elements of its strategic response of land or water (several hundred kilometers long) to 68 years of wars and skirmishes it has fought ‘down range.’ Second, the site ideally, must allow with Pakistan and with China. Deep tensions and for longitudinal launch. The first requirement is to mistrust in the sub-continent continue unabated ensure that a malfunction during the launch stage to the present. India’s defeat by China in the 1962 does not cause damage to civilian lives and border war, probably more than any other event, property. Rocket propellant is highly explosive galvanized its leadership to build indigenous missile and if it does explode during the launch stage, and “threshold” nuclear weapons capabilities as burning fuel and metal fragments are sprayed over a credible deterrent against attack by China, and vast areas. Often, rockets fail to take off along to attain military superiority over Pakistan. the planned trajectory and have to be destroyed by the range safety officer. In this case too, the As far back as in November 1978, the· effects are so devastating that most launch sites government had set up a Committee to identify a around the world are consequently located on a site for the establishment of an instrumented test coast. range. A group of experts had surveyed a number The Bay of Bengal provides an ideal of sites, including the Sunderbans (West Bengal), stretch of sea over which missiles can be fired. -
Nuclear Futures: Western European Options for Nuclear Risk Reduction
Nuclear futures: Western European options for nuclear risk reduction Martin Butcher, Otfried Nassauer & Stephen Young British American Security Information Council and the Berlin Information-center for Transatlantic Security (BITS), December 1998 Contents Acronyms and Abbreviations Executive Summary Chapter One: Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Policy in Western Europe Chapter Two: The United Kingdom Chapter Three: France Chapter Four: Nuclear Co-operation Chapter Five: NATO Europe Chapter Six: Nuclear Risk Reduction in Western Europe Endnotes About the authors Martin Butcher is the Director of the Centre for European Security and Disarmament (CESD), a Brussels-based non-governmental organization. Currently, he is a Visiting Fellow at BASIC’s Washington office. Otfried Nassauer is the Director of the Berlin Information-center for Transatlantic Security (BITS). Stephen Young is a Senior Analyst as BASIC. Previously, he worked for 20/20 Vision and for ACCESS: A Security Information Service. He has a Masters in International Affairs from Columbia University, and a BA from Carleton College. Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the many people who pro-vided help of various kinds during the writing of this report. They include: Nicola Butler, for her inestimable assistance; Ambassador James Leonard, for his helpful comments on the report’s recommendations; Professors Paul Rogers and Patricia Chilton, for their comments on early drafts; Daniel Plesch, for his comments on the entire report; and Camille Grand, for his guidance and support in compiling the section on France. Special thanks to Lucy Amis and Tanya Padberg for excellent proofing and copy-editing work, and to Christine Kucia and Kate Joseph for advice and assistance on the layout and design of the report. -
Pakistan Tests Shaheen-3 and Shaheen-1A Missiles
CAPS In Focus 25 Feb 2016 www.capsindia.org 24/16 PAKISTAN TESTS SHAHEEN-3 AND SHAHEEN-1A MISSILES Gp Capt Ravinder Singh Chhatwal (Retd.) Senior Fellow, CAPS Introduction In March 2015 Pakistan carried out the first test of its most advanced 2750 km range, Shaheen-3 Medium Range Ballistic Missile (MRBM)1. The second test for this missile was carried out on December 11, 2015. The second test was closely followed by a test of its 900 km Short Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM) Shaheen1A, on December 15, 20152. Shaheen-3 is an improved version of the 1500 km Shaheen-2 and can cover entire India. It is the longest range missile in Pakistan’s inventory and is capable of carrying nuclear or conventional warheads. Shaheen-1A is an improved version of the 750 km Shaheen-1 missile. Pakistan has claimed that the Shaheen missile programme is indigenous but there are Image: Shaheen 1A being test fired from undisclosed reports that Chinese engineers have helped test range in Pakistan. Pakistan in the Shaheen-1 programme3. The Source: Inter Services Public Relations Pakistan, Press Release No PR382/2015-ISPR, December 15, 2015. Shaheen series of missiles are all solid fuel road 1 Centre for Air Power Studies | @CAPS_India | Centre for Air Power Studies CAPS In Focus 25 Feb 2016 www.capsindia.org mobile systems. This article briefly discusses launched. Both these missiles benefited from the Pakistan’s Shaheen missile programme. knowledge gained in launching sounding rockets in the 1960’s for which NASA (National Background Aeronautics and Space Administration) of USA, Pakistan started to develop knowledge on assisted Pakistan. -
India Aborts Testing of New Cruise Missile 12 March 2013
India aborts testing of new cruise missile 12 March 2013 The maiden flight of India's first domestically developed long-range cruise missile was aborted midway on Tuesday after it veered off course, defence scientists said. The two-stage Nirbhay missile blasted off from the eastern state of Orissa but the test flight was halted prematurely to "ensure coastal safety", the state-run Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) said. "After travelling approximately midway, deviations were observed from its intended course," spokesman Ravi Gupta said in a statement, which claimed the basic mission objectives from the test firing had been met. With a range of 1,000 kilometres (620 miles), the subsonic Nirbhay missile is intended to cruise like an aircraft and can be launched from land, sea and air, defence officials said. The surface-to-surface missile is fitted with a turbojet engine and is capable of flying at low altitudes to avoid detection. India already has in its arsenal the supersonic BrahMos missile which it developed jointly with Russia. Tuesday's test comes less than a year after India successfully launched its nuclear-capable Agni V ballistic missile with a range of more than 5,000 kilometres. The Indian military views the Agni V missile as a key boost to its regional power aspirations and one that narrows—albeit slightly—its huge gap with China's technologically advanced missile systems. While the shorter-range Agni I and II were mainly developed with India's traditional rival Pakistan in mind, later versions with longer range reflect the shift in India's focus towards China. -
Nuclear Capable Agni-5 Ballistic Missile Tested Successfully
A Monthly Bulletin of Defence Research NEWSLETTER and Development Organisation www.drdo.gov.in FEBRUARY 2018 | VOLUME 38 | ISSUE 2 NUCLEAR CAPABLE AGNI-5 BALLISTIC MISSILE TESTED SUCCESSFULLY INNOVATION >> p09 TOT>> p10 ARDE CONDUCTS SUCCESSFUL PENETRATION TRIALS OF 125MM FSAPDS MK-II AMMUNITION FOCUS>> p22 USER TRIAL OF LAND-BASED PROTOTYPE FOR AIR INDEPENDENT PROPULSION (AIP) COMPLETED DRDO IN PRESS>> p31 SUCCESSFULLY FEBRUARY 2018 VOLUME 38 | ISSUE 2 CONTENTS ISSN: 0971-4391 COVER STORY 08 Nuclear Capable Agni-5 Ballistic Missile tested successfully INNOVATIONS 09 HRD ACTIVITIES 17 ARDE conducts successful Penetration Trials of 125mm FSAPDS Mk-II Ammunition FOCUS 22 User Trial of Land-Based Prototype for Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) Completed Successfully PERSONNEL NEWS 26 TOT/TD 10 EVENTS 12 SPORTS ROUNDS Up 27 VISITS 28 DRDO SERIES 29 DRDO IN PRESS 31 DOWN THE MEMORY 32 LANE 2 FEBRUARY 2018 www.drdo.gov.in DRDO NEWSLETTER Defence Research & Development Organisation NEWSLETTER ISSN: 0971-4391 FROM THE DESK OF THE CHAIRMAN 37th Year of Publication Editor-in-Chief: Dr Alka Suri Senior Editor: B Nityanand; Editor: Manoj Kumar Asst Editor: Geeta Sharma; Editorial Assistance: Biak Tangpua Dr S Christopher Multimedia: RK Bhatnagar CHAIRMAN Printing: SK Gupta, Hans Kumar; Distribution: Tapesh Sinha, RP Singh For feedback, please contact: [email protected] Defence Research & Development Organisation Tel: 011-23902403; 23902474; Fax: 011-23819151 & LOCAL CORRESPONDENTS SECRETARY Ahmednagar: Lt Col. AK Singh, Vehicles Research & -
Pakistan's Nuclear Behaviour and Deterrence Breakdown
CAPS In Focus 01 September 2020 www.capsindia.org 28/20 Pakistan’s Nuclear Behaviour and Deterrence Breakdown Nasima Khatoon Research Associate, CAPS Keywords: Pakistan, Nuclear, Missile systems, MIRV, Nuclear deterrence Pakistan started to develop nuclear weapon in the official statements of Pakistan armed forces2. These changes in nuclear posture and inclusion 1972 after the Indo-Pakistan war in 1971. It of new technologies have the potential to impact conducted the first nuclear test on 28 and 30 the deterrence stability in the region. The May 1998 in response to India’s nuclear test that evolution in nuclear posture has come into being was carried out in the same month. Since its with the introduction of tactical nuclear missile inception, Pakistan’s nuclear development Nasr and submarine-launched cruise missile programme and nuclear strategy have largely Babur-3. With the introduction of Babur-3 remained India centric and it essentially seeks to Pakistan has also claimed to have credible deter India’s conventional force superiority. second-strike capability3. A close look at changes in Pakistan’s Pakistan perceives India’s military nuclear policy over the years indicates this India modernisation and development in the field of centric posture. While its position has remained nuclear & missile programme as a serious threat constant on some policies like the possibility of and seeks to neutralise this impact by further nuclear first use, Pakistan’s nuclear posture has developing nuclear and missile capabilities. This been witnessing constant evolution on policy like threat perception is clearly visible from the fact minimum credible deterrence1. Over time, the that Pakistan’s longest-range missile Shaheen III strategy of minimum credible deterrence has is developed to cover all the parts of India changed to credible minimum deterrence, including Andaman and Nicobar Islands that are credible minimum full spectrum deterrence and “being developed as strategic bases”4. -
Introduction to Missiles
Introduction to missiles 5th Residential Workshop for Young Scholars Global Nuclear Politics and Strategy Rajaram Nagappa International Strategic & Security Studies Programme National Institute of Advanced Studies Bengaluru Weapon system requirements • Delivery to the target • Targets may be at varying distances • Launch from undisclosed locations • Must achieve the target with accuracy • Should be difficult to intercept • Should perform in a reliable and repeatable fashion • Should be capable of performing in all weather, all location and all year round Target Distances Missile Classification Type (Ballistic/Cruise) Function (ATM/SAM/Surface to sea/air to surface/ surface to surface / sea to sea/sea to surface) Range (Short, Medium, Intermediate and Intercontinental) Propulsion (SPR, LPR, ABR) Guidance Missile Classification Missile (Wire, terrain comparison, inertial, laser, RF+GPS) Basics • Figure of merit called Specific Impulse • Thrust produced per unit mass flow of propellant ie Isp = F/(dm/dt) • Mass Ratio: MR = Mi/Mf, Mi = Mprop + Minert + Mpayload Mf = Mi – Mprop vbo = g0 Isp ln MR Trajectory of Short Range Missiles Ballistic Missile Path Typical Ballistic Missile Trajectory Characteristics Parameter Range Class 100 km 500 km 1000 km 2000 km 3000 km Burn time, s 30 34 45 65 75 Initial θ, deg 90 90 90 90 90 Final θ, deg 40 44 43 40.5 38 Final accn, g 5.07 7.33 7.20 6.74 6.86 Vbo, km/s 1.30 2.22 2.89 3.91 4.63 Apogee, km 35.5 137.9 264.7 493.8 697 Range, km 101 497.44 999.10 1997.78 2997.56 Flight time, s 191 369 527 770 972 Growth