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The Impacts of Climate Change on Connecticut Agriculture, Infrastructure, Natural Resources and Public Health, but Also Their Own Stakeholders

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The Impacts of Climate Change on Connecticut Agriculture, Infrastructure, Natural Resources and Public Health A Report by the Adaptation Subcommittee to the Governor’s Steering Committee on Climate Change 2010 Adaptation Subcommittee Impacts of Climate Change April 2010 Acknowledgements The Adaptation Subcommittee would like to acknowledge the climate change projection work, including counsel of its members, from the New York Panel on Climate Change (NPCC 2009) and the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA; Frumhoff et al. 2007) used in the analysis of climate change impacts to Connecticut, summarized in this report. The Adaptation Subcommittee also would like to acknowledge the commitment and dedication of all of the Adaptation Subcommittee workgroup members. Cover Photos CT Intertidal Flat: Photograph by Ken Metzler, CT Department of Environmental Protection (CT DEP), retired Maple Leaf: Photograph by Paul J. Fusco, CT Department of Environmental Protection (CT DEP), Wildlife Division CT Shoreline Flooding: Sidney Gale Mosquito: Photograph by Michael Thomas, The Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station (CAES) 2 Adaptation Subcommittee Impacts of Climate Change April 2010 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................... 4 I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................. 6 THE NEED FOR ADAPTATION ................................................................................................................................... 6 ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF A CHANGING CLIMATE ............................................................................................. 7 II. CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS AND RISK ASSESSMENT............................................................ 8 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS AND FUTURE PROJECTIONS .................................................................................. 8 THE RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS .......................................................................................................................... 10 III. KEY FINDINGS BY WORKGROUP ........................................................................................................ 13 AGRICULTURE WORKGROUP ................................................................................................................................. 13 INFRASTRUCTURE WORKGROUP ........................................................................................................................... 17 NATURAL RESOURCES............................................................................................................................................ 19 PUBLIC HEALTH ..................................................................................................................................................... 22 IV. WORKGROUP INTERSECTIONS ........................................................................................................... 25 WATER QUALITY AND QUANTITY ......................................................................................................................... 25 EDUCATION ............................................................................................................................................................. 26 ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ........................................................................................................................................... 26 BUILDINGS .............................................................................................................................................................. 27 TRANSPORTATION .................................................................................................................................................. 27 INTERSECTIONS BEYOND STATE BORDERS ........................................................................................................... 27 V. RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................................................................................................. 29 AGRICULTURE ........................................................................................................................................................ 29 INFRASTRUCTURE ................................................................................................................................................... 29 NATURAL RESOURCES............................................................................................................................................ 29 PUBLIC HEALTH ..................................................................................................................................................... 30 VI. PUBLIC COMMENT ................................................................................................................................. 31 VII. NEXT STEPS ............................................................................................................................................. 33 WORKS CITED IN THIS DOCUMENT .......................................................................................................... 34 APPENDIX A: RISK ASSESSMENT QUESTIONS ........................................................................................ 35 APPENDIX B: AGRICULTURE ....................................................................................................................... 36 APPENDIX C: INFRASTRUCTURE ............................................................................................................... 83 APPENDIX D: NATURAL RESOURCES ...................................................................................................... 130 APPENDIX E: PUBLIC HEALTH.................................................................................................................. 165 APPENDIX F: PUBLIC COMMENTS ON THE DRAFT WORKGROUP REPORTS ................................ 189 3 Adaptation Subcommittee Impacts of Climate Change April 2010 Executive Summary Background In accordance with Section 7 of Public Act No. 08-98, An Act Concerning Connecticut Global Warming Solutions, the Governor‘s Steering Committee (GSC) on Climate Change established an Adaptation Subcommittee. The GSC charged the Adaptation Subcommittee with evaluating, ―the projected impact of climate change in the state on: (1) Infrastructure, including, but not limited to, buildings, roads, railroads, airports, dams, reservoirs, and sewage treatment and water filtration facilities; (2) natural resources and ecological habitats, including, but not limited to, coastal and inland wetlands, forests and rivers; (3) public health; and (4) agriculture.‖ This assessment effort is to be followed by a report due in mid-2010 that also contains the results of the above impacts assessment and, ―…recommendations for changes to existing state and municipal programs, laws or regulations to enable municipalities and natural habitats to adapt to harmful climate change impacts and to mitigate such impacts.‖ Approach The Adaptation Subcommittee established four working groups, Agriculture, Infrastructure, Natural Resources and Ecological Habitats and Public Health. The Adaptation Subcommittee chose qualified subject matter co-chairs from amongst its members to lead the workgroups. Each workgroup then assembled a team of experts to assess the risk of climate change impacts to key planning areas and associated features from changes in precipitation, temperature and sea level rise occurring at three temporal benchmarks during this century (2020, 2050 and 2080). The workgroups surveyed Connecticut stakeholders for their opinions through numerous meetings and strategic planning workshops. Key Findings Most of the agricultural features assessed by the Agriculture Workgroup were found to be highly impacted by climate change, and most of these impacts were negative. The top five most imperiled agricultural planning areas or features in Connecticut were maple syrup, dairy, warm weather produce, shellfish and apple and pear production. There were opportunities for production expansion, including biofuel crops and witch hazel and grapes, with the future climate, as well as benefits identified for all agricultural planning areas. The infrastructure planning areas determined by the Infrastructure Workgroup to be the most impacted by climate change were coastal flood control and protection, dams and levees, stormwater, transportation and facilities and buildings. Infrastructure planning areas were most affected by changes in precipitation and sea level rise, which could cause substantial structural and economic damage. The Natural Resources Workgroup determined that the ecological habitats at the highest risk from climate change may be Cold Water Streams, Tidal Marsh, Open Water Marine, Beaches and Dunes, Freshwater Wetlands, Offshore Islands, Major Rivers, and Forested Swamps. These habitat types are broadly distributed from Long Island Sound and the coast to the upland watersheds and forests across Connecticut. The degree of impact will vary but, likely changes 4 Adaptation Subcommittee Impacts of Climate Change April 2010 include conversion of rare habitat types (e.g., cold water to warm water streams, tidal marsh and offshore islands to submerged lands), loss and/or replacement of critical species dependent on select habitats,
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