Coastal Vulnerability Under Extreme Weather
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Your article is protected by copyright and all rights are held exclusively by Springer Nature B. V.. This e-offprint is for personal use only inand shall not be self-archived electronic repositories. If you wish to self-archive your article, please use the accepted manuscript version for posting on your own website. You may further deposit the accepted manuscript version in any repository, provided it is only made publicly available 12 months after official publication or later and provided acknowledgement is given to t he original source of publication and a link is inserted to the published article on Springer's website. The link must be nied by the following text: "The final on is available at link.springer.com”. accompa publicati 123 Author's personal copy Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-020-09357-0 Coastal Vulnerability under Extreme Weather Alan T. Murray1 & Leila Carvalho1 & Richard L. Church1 & Charles Jones1 & Dar Roberts1 & Jing Xu1 & Katelyn Zigner1 & Deanna Nash1 Received: 7 January 2020 /Accepted: 14 July 2020/ # Springer Nature B.V. 2020 Abstract Communities like Santa Barbara, California appear to have it all – beaches, mountains, sunshine, moderate temperatures, small urban population, and close proximity to the large metropolis of Los Angeles. What is not to love? Climate change, drought, flammable vegetation, and naturally prevailing weather conditions make a significant portion of the population vulnerable in many ways. Earthquakes and tsunamis might come to mind, but perhaps more of a threat is fire and/or flooding at, on or near the wildland-urban interface. The recent Thomas fire in December of 2017 and subsequent flooding, debris flow and mudslides in Montecito that followed in January of 2018 highlight what coastal vulnerability means under the new normal of extreme wildfire and flooding danger for this region. This paper discusses the unique hazards along with local weather conditions that contribute to vulnerability. We then detail spatial analytics to assess, model and predict risks. Insights are offered for the Santa Barbara region associated with extreme weather vulnerabilities. Keywords Wildfire. climatechange. flooding. debris flow. spatial analytics Introduction Extreme weather conditions have long contributed to coastal vulnerability in places like Southern California, putting communities at risk. Climate change is altering seasonal weather patterns, exacerbating extremes and introducing new threats (Diffenbaugh et al. 2015; Mann and Gleick 2015). Of particular concern are exceptional droughts coupled with prolonged and/or heavy rainfall events. Drought adversely impacts grasses, shrubs, trees, etc., fragmenting landscapes. Further, drought also modifies soil hydrologic properties, such as reducing infiltration capacity (McDowell 2011). The implications for coastal vulnerability are many, but increased wildfire risk due to dry conditions and a buildup of vegetation fuels are especially threatening to people and Author's personal copy Coastal Vulnerability under Extreme Weather * Alan T. Murray [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article property. Furthermore, Southern California can experience high intensity precipitation events that result in flooding, flash floods, mudslides, debris flows, etc. (Jones 2000, Harris and Carvalho 2018, Oakley et al. 2018). Collectively, drought, wildfire and intense periods of rain put many communities in harm’s way. The Santa Barbara region (Fig. 1), including Goleta, Isla Vista, Santa Barbara, Montecito, Summerland and Carpinteria, is a compelling example of coastal vulnerability in Southern California. This region is positioned in a narrow zone between the Santa Ynez Mountains and the Pacific Ocean, populated by some 150,000 people. The mountains are oriented in an east-west direction with elevations of up to approximately 1200 m, rising abruptly from a narrow coastal plain. This offers housing options with stunning mountain and/or ocean views, though they are likely far from affordable for the average income household. The United States Census (2019) indicates that housing values vary considerably across the region, with median prices of over $2 million in Montecito, $934,500 in Santa Barbara, $617,000 in Carpinteria, $718,300 in Goleta and $416,700 in Isla Vista, as an example.1 Median household income is $146,250 (Montecito), $87,068 (Goleta), $71,160 (Santa Barbara), $69,834 (Carpinteria) and $23,541 (Isla Vista), with corresponding poverty rates of 8.0%, 8.4%, 13.7%, 7.7% and 65.5%, respectively (United States Census 2019). It is worth pointing out that Isla Vista is predominantly a student oriented population, most of whom attend neighboring University of California at Santa Barbara. Further socioeconomic characterization is that racial composition of Santa Barbara is 55.6% White, 36.4% Hispanic and 3.9% Asian, with some variation in Isla Vista (e.g., 19.0% Asian) and Montecito (e.g., 87.0% White) (United States Census 2019). For the people living, working or visiting the area, transportation access to and within the region is primarily via US Highway 101, running parallel to the coast. A significant portion of the population resides in the foothills and mountains, near canyons and passes at or on the wildland-urban interface. This is noteworthy because travel is along narrow, winding roads in many cases. The foothills and mountains of Santa Barbara extend into the Los Padres National Forest, as shown in Fig. 1. The vegetation cover is dominated by dense evergreen shrublands (chaparral) and drought deciduous shrubs on south facing slopes as well as mixed broadleaf and evergreen trees in riparian areas and on north facing slopes at higher elevations. Along with vegetation and topography, frequent downslope winds on the southern slopes of the Santa Ynez Mountains make coastal Santa Barbara particularly susceptible to wildfire. Fig 2 gives a summary of major wildfires in the region since 1955, with spatial extent shown in Fig. 3. While there is a long history of fire in this area as part of natural regenerative processes (Ryan 1996, Kolden and Henson 2019), Fig. 2 indicates a clear signal of increased frequency as well as a notable recent trend of larger fires that are more destructive. 1 Summerland figure not included as it is not recognized by the Census as a designated place. Author's personal copy A. Murray et al. Vulnerabilities to people and property in Santa Barbara extend beyond fire, with flooding also a significant concern. The average annual rainfall in this region is approximately 482 mm, but has been as low as 152 mm and as high as 1270 mm (County of Santa Barbara 2019a). The region has a history of flood events. Fig. 4 highlights the major floods occurring in the region since 1950. 1 Many can be attributed Fig. 1 Santa Barbara region to El Nino (e.g., 1952, 1978, 1983, 1995, 1998), the condition of ocean-atmosphere interaction associated with periodic warming in sea surface temperatures near the equator in the Pacific Ocean that often increases precipitation in Southern California (Schonher and Nicholson 1989). Indeed, over 1350 mm was recorded at Lake Cachuma in the 1997–1998 hydrologic year due to the influence of a strong El Nino (Harrison and Larkin 1998). However, while El Nino events are correlated with annual precipitation in Southern California, the relationship suggests other unpredictable factors in regional rainfall (Cash and Burls 2019). For most of Southern California, total annual precipitation results from only a few storms (Harris and Carvalho 2018, Cannon et al. 2018). These intense storms interact with the complex landscape of the 1 Information compiled from County of Santa Barbara (2019b) and State of California (2013). Author's personal copy Coastal Vulnerability under Extreme Weather Fig. 2 Major wildfires in Santa Barbara (1955–2018) Fig. 3 Estimate perimeters of major wildfires in Santa Barbara (1955–2018) region and have potential for localized flooding and landslides. Noteworthy instances of high intensity storms include those of March 1995 (about 76 mm per hour in areas with high winds, lightning and thunder) that closed the Santa Barbara airport, February 1998 that closed the airport and University of California at Santa Barbara, and January 2005 that resulted in extensive airport flooding. Drought and/or wildfire impact vegetation cover and the ability of soil to absorb precipitation, contributing to flooding vulnerability. The combination of extensive drought followed by a major wildfire in early winter exposed mountain regions to critical post-fire debris flow risk. In the evening of Author's personal copy A. Murray et al. January 9, 2018 a narrow band of intense rainfall and vigorous convection produced a record breaking event of approximately 14 mm in five minutes in the foothills/ mountains of Montecito over a portion of the Thomas fire burn area (see Fig. 3). This resulted in deadly debris flows (23 deaths and over 150 injured) and destruction (more Fig. 4 Major flooding in Santa Barbara (1950–2018) than 100 homes destroyed, some 300 homes damaged and critical infrastructure disrupted for weeks) (Murray et al. 2020). This paper seeks to enhance the current understanding of coastal vulnerabilities associated with changing climate in a region with naturally prevailing conditions that put people and property at extreme risk. Fire and/or intense precipitation at, on or near the urban-wildland interface are ever looming dangers. The intent of this paper therefore is to highlight that an interdisciplinary perspective and supporting spatial analytical approaches are critical in planning, policy and response mitigation efforts, and will continue to be in the coming years. The section that follows offers a broad overview of coastal vulnerabilities in the context of climate and weather. This is followed by an overview of wildfire, wind and flooding relative to risks and vulnerability. Spatial analytics contributing to a better understanding of vulnerabilities are then discussed. Insights for the Santa Barbara region are highlighted. The paper ends with concluding remarks and observations.