Appendix 1 Cost Benefit Analysis
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UZB‐ TA 8004 Appendix 1 Cost Benefit Analysis Uzbekistan Solid Waste Management Investment Project BN Ingenieure GmbH GlobalWorks Cost Benefit Analysis Tashkent Solid Waste Disposal Options Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 1 2.0 Solid Waste Management Strategic Options ......................................................... 2 2.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 2 2.2 Option A: Akhangaran Regional Landfill .............................................................................. 2 2.3 Options B and C: Inter-Regional Landfill ............................................................................. 4 2.4 Other Options for Waste Disposal ....................................................................................... 6 3.0 Cost Benefit – Least Cost Analysis of the Options ................................................ 7 3.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 7 3.2 Capital Expenditure Comparison ......................................................................................... 7 3.3 Operational Cost Comparison .............................................................................................7 3.4 Other Costs and Benefits ....................................................................................................8 4.0 Conclusions and Recommendations .................................................................... 13 Figures 1 Tashkent and Surrounding Region 2 2 Landfill Siting Assessment Overview 3 3 Option A: Akhangaran Landfill 4 4 Potential Sites for Inter-Regional Landfill 5 5 Potential Landfill Site at Hovos 5 6 SWM Development Scenarios for Each Option 9 7 Cost Benefit Matrix 11 Annexes 1 Tashkent City Solid Waste Projections 2 Option A: Capital Expenditures 3 Option B: Capital Expenditures 4 Option C: Capital Expenditures 5 Option A: Transfer System Operational Costs 6 Option B: Transfer System Operational Costs 7 Option C: Transfer System Operational Costs UZB-8004: Uzbekistan Solid Waste Management Investment Program i Cost Benefit Analysis Tashkent Solid Waste Disposal Options 1.0 Introduction This cost benefit analysis has been prepared to assist the Government of Uzbekistan (GoU) to evaluate municipal solid waste (waste) disposal options for Tashkent city, covering the period up to the year 2060 and beyond. Tashkent’s 2.3 million people are currently served by a conventional three-stage solid waste management (SWM) system, which accommodates all household, commercial, institutional and other wastes. The system includes about 700 community collection points, an waste collection service incorporating over 300 collection vehicles, three waste transfer stations, and the Akhangaran dumpsite located 35 km to the southeast of the city, which accommodates virtually all of Tashkent’s waste. The large peri-urban area of Tashkent Province surrounding the city is served by similar SWM systems, albeit of a rudimentary nature. In rural areas outside of these areas, SWM systems where they exist are even less organized with many small-scale dumpsites serving communities. The Tashkent SWM system needs immediate improvement. Many of the community collection points require rehabilitation, the entire collection vehicle fleet needs to be replaced, and the transfer stations need to be refurbished and upgraded. Of direct relevance to this analysis, a new properly designed sanitary landfill facility is also needed to replace the almost full Akhangaran dumpsite; a facility that currently lacks properly engineered environmental protection systems and is most likely already polluting the surrounding environment. Where they exist, the SWM systems of the peri- urban and rural areas are in even worse condition, characterized by dilapidated collection equipment and a proliferation of open dumpsites. Recycling is also in its infancy throughout the region. These challenges have been fully recognized by the GOU, which in addition to prioritizing this Project initiative, is currently in the process of acquiring replacement waste collection trucks through lease-to-own in order to improve Tashkent’s waste collection system. It is also developing an additional 30-hectare dumpsite facility adjacent to the existing Akhangaran dumpsite as an emergency disposal measure in order to avert a future disposal crisis. Tashkent is estimated to generate approximately 650,000 tons of waste per year. By 2030, its generation rate is conjectured to accelerate to over 850,000 tons per year. Through the evaluation of waste composition data obtained as part of the Project, it is likely that with aggressive recycling strategies, about 20 percent of the waste stream could eventually be recycled, up from the current estimate of about 5 percent. Assuming that recycling programs are implemented to achieve and maintain a recycling efficiency of 20 percent by 2020, Tashkent would still generate a total of about 700,000 tons per year. All of which would require disposal. Annex 1 presents these waste generation and recycling projections. In summary therefore, even with the implementation of waste minimization and recycling programs, the residual waste disposal demand for Tashkent are considerable. As the Akhangaran dumpsite approaches its maximum capacity, and with only a modest 30-hectare dumpsite facility planned, the GoU has recognized that Tashkent needs a longer-term solution to properly address this demand. The GoU also recognizes that the continuation of rudimentary dumpsite operations into the future is no longer considered to be an appropriate solution for a growing, modern international capital city such as Tashkent. The GoU therefore plans to upgrade the system to include modern sanitary landfill solutions that meet international best practice in terms of design and operation. Waste management information utilized in this assessment has been sourced from the Maxsustrans database and from Consultant’s resources. Equipment and construction information is based on international price lists, modified for local conditions. Due to the absence of any national railway cost data for the assessment, rail data has had to be sourced from generic European data. UZB-8004: Uzbekistan Solid Waste Management Investment Program Page 1 Cost Benefit Analysis Tashkent Solid Waste Disposal Options 2.0 Solid Waste Management Strategic Options 2.1 Introduction Project analysis indicates that a single sanitary landfill facility to accommodate Tashkent’s waste for at least the next 50 years would require a total land area of about 250 hectares. In order to maximize efficiencies, this facility would, for example, most likely include a single waste pile of dimensions 1,200m by 1,600m, with a maximum height (thickness) approaching 120m. Such a facility is commonplace for cities similar to Tashkent. 2.2 Option A: Akhangaran Regional Landfill Figure 1 shows a satellite image of Tashkent and the surrounding region. The urban area of Tashkent is surrounded by peri-urban and rural communities which also extend throughout the province. The land outside of these populated areas is almost entirely comprised of irrigated, agricultural land, which is utilized for active farming. Unproductive, idle land is almost entirely absent within the entire Tashkent corridor, between the north-western border with Kazakhstan and the south-eastern mountain ridge of Shin-Than. Figure 1: Tashkent and Surrounding Region Figure 2 below shows the results of a landfill siting assessment conducted within the Tashkent region, in order to identify potential sites which might be suitable for the development of a 250- hectare regional landfill facility for Tashkent. Considering a range of criteria, the analysis progressively discounted land areas due to, for example; their proximity to communities, rivers and floodplains, and areas of unsuitable land morphology. UZB-8004: Uzbekistan Solid Waste Management Investment Program Page 2 Cost Benefit Analysis Tashkent Solid Waste Disposal Options Figure 2: Landfill Siting Assessment Overview The assessment resulted in 21 potentially suitable areas, which were then subjected to further scrutiny. Based on this, a total of seven regional areas were identified, resulting in the screening of four potential areas for further assessment. One of these priority areas is a 450-hectare land parcel immediately adjacent to the eastern extremity of the existing Akhangaran dumpsite. As this area is immediately adjacent to both the existing dumpsite and the planned location of the 30-hectare dumpsite expansion, it is therefore considered a priority in terms of its potential on which to develop a 250-hectare regional landfill facility for Tashkent. For the purposes of this cost benefit analysis, this location is referred to as ‘Option A: Akhangaran Landfill’. Figure 3 shows the general layout of this facility, which as stated above, has the potential to accommodate all of Tashkent’s residual waste for at least 50 years. Due to it being located immediately adjacent to the existing Akhangaran dumpsite, it would share the same access corridors as the dumpsite and the same facility entrance. Residual waste could be transported to the facility from Tashkent’s transfer stations in specially designed and more efficient truck and trailer waste transfer