Mapping the drivers of uncertainty in atmospheric selenium deposition with global sensitivity analysis Aryeh Feinberg1,2,3, Moustapha Maliki4, Andrea Stenke1, Bruno Sudret4, Thomas Peter1, and Lenny H. E. Winkel2,3 1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland 2Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland 3Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland 4Chair of Risk, Safety and Uncertainty Quantification, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland Correspondence: Aryeh Feinberg (
[email protected]) Abstract. An estimated 0.5–1 billion people globally have inadequate intakes of selenium (Se), due to a lack of bioavailable Se in agricultural soils. Deposition from the atmosphere, especially through precipitation, is an important source of Se to soils. However, very little is known about the atmospheric cycling of Se. It has therefore been difficult to predict how far Se travels in the atmosphere and where it deposits. To answer these questions, we have built the first global atmospheric Se model by 5 implementing Se chemistry into an aerosol–chemistry–climate model, SOCOL-AER. In the model, we include information from the literature about the emissions, speciation, and chemical transformation of atmospheric Se. Natural processes and anthropogenic activities emit volatile Se compounds, which oxidize quickly and partition to the particulate phase. Our model tracks the transport and deposition of Se in 7 gas-phase species and 41 aerosol tracers. However, there are large uncertainties associated with many of the model’s input parameters. In order to identify which model uncertainties are the most important 10 for understanding the atmospheric Se cycle, we conducted a global sensitivity analysis with 34 input parameters related to Se chemistry, Se emissions, and the interaction of Se with aerosols.