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Romney Holds Modest Lead Over Bachmann in New Hampshire

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Romney Holds Modest Lead Over Bachmann in New Hampshire FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE July 6th, 2011 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL [email protected], OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF THE PRESS RELEASE Romney holds modest lead over Bachmann in New Hampshire Raleigh, N.C. – When PPP last polled New Hampshire in April, only Donald Trump proved competitive with Mitt Romney. Since then, Michele Bachmann has become Romney’s closest competitor, and now trails Romney in New Hampshire by a similar margin. Romney holds the lead with 25% and is followed by Bachmann with 18%, Sarah Palin with 11%, Paul with 9%, Herman Cain and Rick Perry with 7%, Huntsman and Pawlenty with 6%, and Newt Gingrich with 4%. Without Palin in the race, Romney retains his 7 point lead, taking 28% to Bachmann’s 21%, Perry and Paul’s 9%, Cain and Huntsman’s 7%, Pawlenty’s 6%, and Gingrich’s 4%. If unlikely candidates Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani, and Paul Ryan were to enter the race, Romney would still lead. He would take 26% of the vote with 20% for Christie, 14% for Bachmann, 9% for Giuliani, 8% for Palin and Bush, 5% for Pawlenty, and 3% for Ryan. If the Republican presidential primaries become a two person race between Romney and another candidate, Romney would still have the edge in New Hampshire. Romney leads Bachmann most narrowly 49-37, leads Perry 53-28, Pawlenty 59-25, and Palin 65-26. However, Romney has a problem with Republicans who identify as members of the Tea Party, 33% of the New Hampshire GOP. They favor Bachmann over Romney 53-39. Birthers have lost steam in New Hampshire since the release of Obama’s birth certificate, but they still have a significant presence. Now a majority, 54%, of New Hampshire Republicans think Obama was born in the US compared to 30% who don’t. This is up from only 35% who believed Obama was born in the US in April. “It will be difficult for Romney to win the nomination without New Hampshire,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Romney has the advantage, but his small lead in friendly territory suggests that his frontrunner status is vulnerable.” PPP surveyed 341 New Hampshire Republican primary voters from June 30th to July 5th. No interviews were conducted on July 3rd or 4th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 5.3%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates. Public Policy Polling Phone: 888 621-6988 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Raleigh, NC 27604 Email: [email protected] New Hampshire Survey Results Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Michele Bachmann? of Jeb Bush? Favorable........................................................ 64% Favorable........................................................ 59% Unfavorable .................................................... 24% Unfavorable .................................................... 19% Not sure .......................................................... 12% Not sure .......................................................... 22% Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Herman Cain? of Ron Paul? Favorable........................................................ 42% Favorable........................................................ 53% Unfavorable .................................................... 25% Unfavorable .................................................... 30% Not sure .......................................................... 33% Not sure .......................................................... 18% Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin? of Rick Santorum? Favorable........................................................ 52% Favorable........................................................ 40% Unfavorable .................................................... 39% Unfavorable .................................................... 25% Not sure .......................................................... 9% Not sure .......................................................... 36% Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tim Pawlenty? of Rudy Giuliani? Favorable........................................................ 45% Favorable........................................................ 62% Unfavorable .................................................... 27% Unfavorable .................................................... 23% Not sure .......................................................... 28% Not sure .......................................................... 15% Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney? of Jon Huntsman? Favorable........................................................ 60% Favorable........................................................ 25% Unfavorable .................................................... 29% Unfavorable .................................................... 26% Not sure .......................................................... 11% Not sure .......................................................... 49% Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Newt Gingrich? of Chris Christie? Favorable........................................................ 33% Favorable........................................................ 55% Unfavorable .................................................... 51% Unfavorable .................................................... 17% Not sure .......................................................... 17% Not sure .......................................................... 28% June 30-July 5, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 341 Republican primary voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Q18 If the candidates for President next year were of Buddy Roemer? Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt 5% Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron Favorable........................................................ Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, and Mitt Unfavorable .................................................... 16% Romney, who would you vote for? Not sure .......................................................... 79% Michele Bachmann ......................................... 18% Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Herman Cain................................................... 7% of Rick Perry? Newt Gingrich ................................................. 4% Favorable........................................................ 33% Jon Huntsman................................................. 6% Unfavorable .................................................... 13% Sarah Palin ..................................................... 11% Not sure .......................................................... 54% Ron Paul......................................................... 9% Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Fred Karger? Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 6% Favorable........................................................ 2% Rick Perry ....................................................... 7% Unfavorable .................................................... 16% Mitt Romney.................................................... 25% Not sure .......................................................... 82% Someone else/Not sure .................................. 7% Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Q19 If Sarah Palin didn’t end up running for of Paul Ryan? President, and the candidates were Michele 39% Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Favorable........................................................ Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Unfavorable .................................................... 15% Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for? Not sure .......................................................... 46% Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Michele Bachmann ......................................... 21% of Gary Johnson? Herman Cain................................................... 7% Favorable........................................................ 9% Newt Gingrich ................................................. 4% Unfavorable .................................................... 15% Jon Huntsman................................................. 7% Not sure .......................................................... 76% Ron Paul......................................................... 9% Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 6% Rick Perry ....................................................... 9% Mitt Romney.................................................... 28% Someone else/Not sure .................................. 9% June 30-July 5, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 341 Republican primary voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Q20 If the Republican candidates for President Q24 If the
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