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Flood Outlook 2007

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Flood Outlook 2007 CPD Conference on Development with Equity and Justice Immediate Tasks for the Newly Elected Government Dhaka; 28‐29 March 2009 Bangladesh‐China Friendship Conference Centre Plenary Session III ENERGY SECTOR: CHALLENGES OF ADDING NEW CAPACITY Keynote paper by M Fouzul Kabir Khan Professor of Economics and Finance North South University and Former Secretary, Power Division 29 March 2009 CENTRE FOR POLICY DIALOGUE (CPD) B A N G L A D E S H a c i v i l s o c i e t y t h i n k - t a n k I. Introduction Energy is an absolutely contemporary but somehow perennial topic (Solow, 1974). The continued wave of interests on economics of natural resources, particularly energy, emanates mainly from the exhaustible nature of important commercial energy resources resulting in antagonistic relationship between today’s and tomorrow’s production. Even before the publication of Harold Hotellings’ seminal article “The Economics of Exhaustible Resources,” in 1931, Adam Smith, Ricardo, Henry Carey, J.S. Mill, W.R.Sorely, Marshall, Lewis Gray and Gustav Cassel made significant contributions to this literature. The recent spike in oil prices is a stark reminder of the famous Hotelling rule which states that the price of an exhaustible resource must grow at a rate equal to the rate of interest, both along an efficient extraction path and in a competitive resource industry equilibrium (Hotelling, 1931). However, the demand destruction subsequent to the spike in oil prices reminded us of the simplest lesson from microeconomics that even the monopolist can choose a price or a quantity, but not both. If the prices are too high, consumers may choose to buy nothing at all. The added dimension to the energy economics for developing countries is the resource curse exemplified by Nigeria (Auty, 1993) reminding us that abundant resources are no guarantee and in fact there could be a link between natural resource abundance and poor economic growth (Sachs and Warner, 1997). In their paper they show that economies with a high ratio of natural resource exports to GDP in 1970 (the base year) tended to grow slowly during the subsequent 20-year period 1970-1990. Nigeria, classified as the sixth largest exporter of oil, which was one of the 50 richest countries in the early 1970s, has retrogressed to becoming one of the 25 poorest countries at the threshold of the twenty first century. In the context of Bangladesh, the resource curse issue is important since from the notion of “floating on gas” and desire for “exporting gas” we have now moved on to severe gas shortage- interrupting power generation, hampering production, and causing discomfort to public life.. The energy sector in Bangladesh is capacity constrained both in terms of energy resources and energy commodities. Energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, coal, biomass, hydro, uranium, wind, sunlight, and geothermal deposits – can be harnessed to produce energy commodities such as petrol, diesel, natural gas, coal, and electricity. The energy commodities can be used to provide energy services such as lighting, space and water heating, cooking, motive power, and electronic activity. Table A1 provides a taxonomy of energy resources and commodities. The purpose of the paper is to initiate an informed debate about the energy sector and to prioritize a set of actions for implementation by the government. The paper begins with a summary of the National Energy Policy of Bangladesh, followed by an overview of the energy sector in section 3, Section 4 reviews recent developments in the energy sector. Based on the review, we highlight key energy sector issues in section 5. In section 6, we consider challenges and opportunities for the new government and outline some silver linings. The final section has conclusions and recommendations for the newly elected government. II. National Energy policy of Bangladesh The National Energy Policy (NEP), adopted in 1996, identifies constraints in the development of energy sector including shortage of capital; lack of private participation; inefficient management of utilities; administered pricing of energy products; inadequate attention to energy needs of rural areas; constraints on the development of energy consuming sectors; and lack of adequate human resources. Based on the identified constraints, NEP outlines the following objectives to remove the existing energy constraints on the development of economy: optimum development of all indigenous energy resources, satisfying energy needs of different geographic zones, improvements in performance of utilities and promoting private sector participations in the energy sector. NEP discusses currently available known energy resources and present consumption patterns. It also estimates demand scenarios, future demand for commercial energy under two sets of assumptions of economic growth rate. It also considers two alternative supply scenarios for meeting the projected demand. These are current option and reference option. The current option is basically a “business-as- usual” scenario. The reference option is quite similar with additional emphasis on intensified exploration of oil and natural gas, greater development of coal reserves, harnessing new renewable energy sources and effective conservation of energy and biomass fuel. Energy Sector: Challenges of Adding New Capacity NEP made a good beginning to address the issues that beset the energy sector in a non-oil exporting developing country such as Bangladesh. The energy scenario in Bangladesh has undergone considerable changes since adoption of the policy. For example, significant progress has been made in the area of private participation, particularly in the area of electricity generation. Recent experience shows that lack of primarily fuel rather than capital has emerged as the binding constraint in the development of energy sector. For example, in 2007-2008, 24 contracts were awarded for 1,125 MW of power plants. Out of which 735 MW is in the private sector.1 All the private sector projects achieved successful financial closure. On the other hand, 500-700 MW capacity electricity generation is stranded everyday due to lack of primary fuel, i.e. natural gas. In addition to the NEP, the successive governments have issued other policy documents at different times. These policy documents cover wide range of issues, including, providing access to electricity to all citizens by 2020; participation of private sector in power generation; and policies for the promotion of renewable energy. A number of policies and laws are at draft stage, the most important one being Bangladesh Coal Policy. III. Energy Sector Overview Energy Resources of Bangladesh Natural Gas The key natural resource of the country is natural gas, used for generation of electricity, production of fertilizer, and running vehicles. Natural gas has other domestic and industrial use as well. Natural gas accounts for 76 percent of commercial energy used by the people. In addition, natural gas also insulates the economy from volatility of energy prices (see Table 1) in the world market. Figure 1: Bangladesh Gas Discoveries Shell (P) Titas Discovery PB discovery between 1977-2004 Habiganj is 2.5 tcf at 3:1 8 Bibyiana Kailashtila Bakhrabad 6 Rashidpur M’bazar Jalalabad Sangu Chattak 4 Sylhet 2P GIIP2P tcf 2 Res Rev 0 1950 1960 1963 1977 1988 1990 1996 Year Source: Petrobangla The chart above shows the status of Bangladesh gas discoveries for the period 1950- 2004. The first commercial gas discovery was made in Haripur in 1955. Ever since then, exploration efforts have resulted in discovery of 23 gas fields of which 16 are currently in production, 4 are non-producing, and 2 are suspended as partially depleted. Most of the initial discoveries took place in the late fifties and early sixties when the Rashidpur, Kailashtila, and Habiganj gas fields were discovered by Shell during 1960-1963. At a smaller scale, a second spurt of discovery took place in the late nineties, Bibiyana with a proven reserve of 2.5 tcf gas being the most important. The latest discovery of gas took place 1 If one includes small IPPs, short and long-term rental power plants, private sector accounts for about 30 percent of the total installed capacity. Out of total 5560 MW of installed capacity, private sector operates power plants of about 1743 MW capacity. 2 CPD Conference on Development with Equity and Justice Energy Sector: Challenges of Adding New Capacity in May 2006 with small discovery of 0.44 tcf of gas at Bangura. There has been no major gas exploration effort since 1998 and hence no major discovery of gas also happened thereafter. Offshore Gas Exploration Third round bidding for Bangladesh’s gas exploration hit snags as out of the 20 deep-sea blocks, some international oil companies (IOCs) have submitted bids for only 8 deep-sea blocks which are not disputed by the neighbors. Myanmar and India have influenced major oil companies not to participate in the bidding, warned them about the consequences of their investments, asked them not to sign production sharing contracts (PSC) in the disputed blocks, and asked Bangladesh not to award the offshore blocks without resolving the issue of Maritime boundary.2 As a result, oil majors like Chevron, Exxon-Mobil or Shell shied away from submitting bids. India offered 55 blocks for exploration to the IOCs in the Bay of Bengal in 2006. The map published by India clearly showed that blocks D-23 (8,706sqkm) and D-22 (7,790sqkm) have overlapped Bangladesh's block 21 declared in 1991. Myanmar on the other hand made significant gas discovery in A1 and A3 gas fields/block, in the Rakhaine coast that lies in the Bay of Bengal, offshore from the Myanmar town of Sittwe and is only about 100 km from Teknaf coast of Bangladesh. Daewoo of Korea is the operator of A1 and A3 gas fields with gas reserves of around five to six trillion cubic feet.
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