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A High-Resolution Land–Atmosphere Modelling System for Urban CO2 Emissions

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A High-Resolution Land–Atmosphere Modelling System for Urban CO2 Emissions Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9019–9045, 2016 www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/9019/2016/ doi:10.5194/acp-16-9019-2016 © Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Los Angeles megacity: a high-resolution land–atmosphere modelling system for urban CO2 emissions Sha Feng1,2,a, Thomas Lauvaux3,2, Sally Newman4, Preeti Rao2, Ravan Ahmadov5,6, Aijun Deng3, Liza I. Díaz-Isaac3, Riley M. Duren2, Marc L. Fischer7, Christoph Gerbig8, Kevin R. Gurney9, Jianhua Huang9, Seongeun Jeong7, Zhijin Li2, Charles E. Miller2, Darragh O’Keeffe9, Risa Patarasuk9, Stanley P. Sander2, Yang Song9, Kam W. Wong4,2, and Yuk L. Yung4 1JIFRESSE, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA 2Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA 3Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA, USA 4Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA 5Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA 6Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, USA 7Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA 8Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany 9School of Life Science, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA anow at: Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA Correspondence to: Sha Feng ([email protected]) Received: 15 February 2016 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 21 March 2016 Revised: 22 June 2016 – Accepted: 4 July 2016 – Published: 22 July 2016 Abstract. Megacities are major sources of anthropogenic can 2.2 (10 km resolution) and Hestia-LA (1.3 km resolu- fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions. The spatial extents of tion) fossil fuel CO2 emission products to evaluate the im- 2 these large urban systems cover areas of 10 000 km or pact of the spatial resolution of the CO2 emission products more with complex topography and changing landscapes. We and the meteorological transport model on the representa- present a high-resolution land–atmosphere modelling system tion of spatiotemporal variability in simulated atmospheric for urban CO2 emissions over the Los Angeles (LA) megac- CO2 concentrations. We find that high spatial resolution in ity area. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)- the fossil fuel CO2 emissions is more important than in the Chem model was coupled to a very high-resolution FFCO2 atmospheric model to capture CO2 concentration variabil- emission product, Hestia-LA, to simulate atmospheric CO2 ity across the LA megacity. Finally, we present a novel ap- concentrations across the LA megacity at spatial resolutions proach that employs simultaneous correlations of the sim- as fine as ∼ 1 km. We evaluated multiple WRF configura- ulated atmospheric CO2 fields to qualitatively evaluate the tions, selecting one that minimized errors in wind speed, greenhouse gas measurement network over the LA megac- wind direction, and boundary layer height as evaluated by ity. Spatial correlations in the atmospheric CO2 fields reflect its performance against meteorological data collected dur- the coverage of individual measurement sites when a statis- ing the CalNex-LA campaign (May–June 2010). Our results tically significant number of sites observe emissions from show no significant difference between moderate-resolution a specific source or location. We conclude that elevated at- (4 km) and high-resolution (1.3 km) simulations when eval- mospheric CO2 concentrations over the LA megacity are uated against surface meteorological data, but the high- composed of multiple fine-scale plumes rather than a sin- resolution configurations better resolved planetary boundary gle homogenous urban dome. Furthermore, we conclude that layer heights and vertical gradients in the horizontal mean FFCO2 emissions monitoring in the LA megacity requires winds. We coupled our WRF configuration with the Vul- FFCO2 emissions modelling with ∼ 1 km resolution because Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 9020 S. Feng et al.: LA megacity GHG modelling system coarser-resolution emissions modelling tends to overestimate centrations (e.g. Lauvaux et al., 2012, 2016; Tarantola, 2005; the observational constraints on the emissions estimates. Enting et al., 1994; Gurney et al., 2012; Baker et al., 2006; Law et al., 2003). In general, a prior flux is required for esti- mating the fluxes using an atmospheric inversion. The uncer- tainties in “top-down” methods can be attributed to errors in 1 Introduction the observations (e.g. Tarantola, 2005), emission aggregation errors from the prior fluxes (e.g. Gurney et al., 2012; Engelen Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a major anthropogenic contribu- et al., 2002), and physical representation errors in the atmo- tor to climate change. It has increased from its preindustrial spheric transport model (e.g. Díaz Isaac et al., 2014; Gerbig (1750) level of 278 ± 2 ppm (Etheridge et al., 1996) to over et al., 2008; Kretschmer et al., 2012; Lauvaux et al., 2009; 400 ppm in recent years, as reported by the National Oceanic Sarrat et al., 2007). Previous studies showed that regional and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Scripps In- high-resolution models can capture the measured CO2 sig- stitution of Oceanography (http://CO2now.org/). Clear evi- nal much better than the lower-resolution global models and dence has shown that the continued increase of the atmo- simulate the diurnal variability of the atmospheric CO2 field spheric CO2 concentration is dominated by global fossil fuel caused by recirculation of nighttime respired CO2 well (Ah- consumption during the same period (IPCC, 2013) and land madov et al., 2009). Previous studies (Ahmadov et al., 2009; use change (Houghton, 1999). Pillai et al., 2011, 2010; Rödenbeck et al., 2009) have dis- Urban areas are significant sources of fossil fuel CO2 cussed the advantages of high-resolution CO2 modelling on (FFCO2), representing more than 50 % of the world’s pop- different domains and applications. Recent efforts to study ulation and more than 70 % of FFCO2 (UN, 2006). In partic- FFCO2 emissions on urban scales have benefited from strate- ular, megacities (cities with urban populations greater than gies that apply in situ observations concentrated within cities 10 million people) are major sources of anthropogenic emis- and mesoscale transport models (e.g. Wu et al., 2011; Lau- sions, with the world’s 35 megacities emitting more than vaux et al., 2016; Strong et al., 2011; Lac et al., 2013; Bréon 20 % of the global anthropogenic FFCO2, even though they et al., 2015). only represent about 3 % of the Earth’s land surface (IPCC, The Los Angeles (LA) megacity is one of the top three 2013). The proportion of emissions from megacities in- FFCO2 emitters in the US. The atmospheric CO2 concen- creases monotonically with the world population and urban- trations show complex spatial and temporal variability re- ization (UN, 2006, 2010). Developed and developing megac- sulting from a combination of large FFCO2 emissions, com- ities around the world are working together to pursue strate- plex topography, and challenging meteorological variability gies to limit CO2 and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (e.g. Brioude et al., 2013; Wong et al., 2015; Angevine et al., (C40, 2012). 2012; Conil and Hall, 2006; Ulrickson and Mass, 1990; Lu Carbon fluxes can be estimated using “bottom-up” and and Turco, 1995; Baker et al., 2013; Chen et al., 2013; New- “top-down” methods. Typically, FFCO2 emissions are de- man et al., 2013). Past studies exploring CO2 concentrations termined using “bottom-up” methods, by which fossil fuel over the LA megacity used measurement methods ranging usage from each source sector is convolved with the esti- from ground-based to airborne, from in situ to column. Those mated carbon content of each fuel type to obtain FFCO2 studies consistently reported robust enhancements (e.g. 30– emission estimates. Space–time-resolved FFCO2 data sets 100 in situ and 2–8 ppm column) and significant variability using “bottom-up” methods clearly reveal the fingerprint of of the CO2 concentrations for the LA megacity (Newman human activity with the most intense emissions being clus- et al., 2013; Wunch et al., 2009; Wong et al., 2015; Kort tered around urban centres and associated power plants (e.g. et al., 2012; Wennberg et al., 2012; Newman et al., 2016). Gurney et al., 2009, 2012). At the global and annual scale, There have been limited radiocarbon (14C) isotopic tracer FFCO2 emission estimates remain uncertain at ±5 %, vary- studies (Newman et al., 2013; Djuricin et al., 2010; Riley ing widely by country and reporting method (Le Quéré et al., et al., 2008; Newman et al., 2016). Newman et al.(2016) 2014). At the urban scale, the uncertainties of FFCO2 emis- showed that FFCO2 constituted 10–25 ppm of the CO2 ex- sion estimates are often 50–200 % (Turnbull et al., 2011; cess observed in the LA Basin by averaging the flask sam- Asefi-Najafabady et al., 2014). On the other hand, “top- ples at 14:00 PST during 15 May–15 June 2010. Djuricin down” methods could potentially estimate biases in bottom- et al.(2010) demonstrated that fossil fuel combustion con- up emissions, and could also detect trends that cities can use tributed approximately 50–70 % of CO2 sources in LA. Re- 14 13 for decision-making, due to changing economic activity or cently, using CO2 mole fractions and 1 C and δ C val- implementation of new emission regulations. ues of CO2 in the LA megacity observed in inland Pasadena “Top-down” methods involve atmospheric measurements (2006–2013) and coastal Palos Verdes Peninsula (autumn and usually include an atmospheric inversion of CO2 con- 2009–2013), Newman et al.(2016) demonstrated that fos- centrations, using atmospheric transport models to estimate sil fuel combustion is the dominant source of CO2 for in- carbon fluxes (i.e. posterior fluxes) by adjusting the fluxes land Pasadena.
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