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Khanfir Stabilization Report Assessing the Stabilization Challenges and Opportunities in Khanfir District in Abyan Governorate in Yemen Yemen Communities Stronger Together (YCST) Cooperative Agreement No. 72027918CA00001 May 2019 This report was authored by Ilyas Ibrahim Mohamed, the YCST MEL Director, using the initial findings submitted by Carfax Projects led by Charles Schulze. The report is based on extensive fieldwork and data collection undertaken by Carfax Projects in January and February 2019 as well as by YCST in March 2019. Table of Contents Acronyms .................................................................................................................................... 3 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 4 Purpose of the Assessment ................................................................................................................... 4 Assessment Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 4 Structure of the Stabilization Analytical Framework .............................................................................. 4 Note on the Scoring Method .................................................................................................................. 5 Assessment Results .................................................................................................................... 6 Concluding Summary ................................................................................................................ 16 2 Global Communities | 8601 Georgia Avenue, Suite 300 | Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA T: (+1) 301.587.4700 | F: (+1) 301.587.7315 | www.globalcommunities.org Acronyms AQAP Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula CfW Cash for Work CSO Central Statistical Organization CSOs Civil Society Organizations CBOs Community Based Organizations FGD Focus Group Discussion HH Household IDPs Internally Displaced Persons IP Implementing Partners INGO International Non-Governmental Organization KII Key Informant Interview M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MoPIC Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation NNGO National Non-Governmental Organization NSC National Security Council PC Popular Committees RoYG Republic of Yemen Government SBF Security Belt Forces TPM Third-Party Monitoring UNDP United Nations Development Program UNICEF United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund USAID United States Agency for International Development USG United States Government YCST Yemen Communities Stronger Together YPA USAID Yemen Program Approach 3 Global Communities | 8601 Georgia Avenue, Suite 300 | Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA T: (+1) 301.587.4700 | F: (+1) 301.587.7315 | www.globalcommunities.org 1 Introduction Purpose of the Assessment This report applies the USAID's Stabilization Analytical Framework to identify “green spots” for small-scale, locally relevant, pilot stabilization activities. For the purposes of this report, green spots are defined as areas where USAID can help locally legitimate authorities2 stabilize their communities in ways that are consistent with United States Government (USG) interests and the broader USAID Yemen Program Approach (YPA). This report outlines assessments conducted in targeted communities in Abyan governorate between January and March 2019. Identifying such green spots in the Yemen context is challenging, due to the fractured nature of political and military control in the country and that – unlike in other contexts where USG has provided stabilization assistance – it is not a country where the US forces have established territorial control. For this reason, this report identifies a set of seven factors and corresponding tools that USAID can use to help classify a geographic area as green, yellow, or red in terms of suitability for stabilization programing. Finally, the report includes some recommendations on the key challenges to and opportunities for effective stabilization assistance in Yemen that USAID can consider when designing its programs. While not the primary purpose of this report, these considerations are relevant to geographic targeting of stabilization assistance. Assessment Methodology In addition to the Focus Group Discussions (FGD) tool, which was based on the Stabilization Analytical Framework, this report also draws on data collected from household surveys and key informant interviews undertaken in targeted areas in Yemen. Discussions were held with local leaders, local authority representatives, and community members. Stabilization-focused questions were embedded throughout the tools with separate analyses carried out of the resulting data. This information was then supplemented by secondary evidence (if available) focusing on the target locations. The achieved sample can be found below: Total Tool Groups Male Female Participants HH Survey N/A 26 20 46 FGDs 4 10 27 37 KIIs N/A 1 0 1 Structure of the Stabilization Analytical Framework This framework identifies seven key factors that determine the status of a district as a green, yellow, or red spot: 1) Security, 2) Existence of Reliable Local Authorities, 3) Risk of Doing Harm, 4) Existing Foundation for Stabilization Efforts, 5) Free and Unfettered Access, 6) Presence of 1 The content and wording of this chapter has been drawn largely from project document ‘Yemen Monitoring And Evaluation Program, Phase II - Permissive Stabilization Programing Areas (Green Spots) Assessment’ 2 Local authorities may include elected officials of the local councils, appointed officials, technical staff from the various directorates (water, health, education), or managerial or clerical staff. 4 Global Communities | 8601 Georgia Avenue, Suite 300 | Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA T: (+1) 301.587.4700 | F: (+1) 301.587.7315 | www.globalcommunities.org Local Implementing Partners, and 7) Multiplier Potential. The component investigative questions and definitions for each of these areas can be found in the appendices of this report. The subsequent analyses provide summary assessments as well as supporting data and analyses across each of the component themes of analysis. Note on the Scoring Method This scoring method considers each of the key factors as a dimension of the framework. Since there is no scientific way to decide which dimension carries more weight, each dimension should ideally weigh the number of its sub-dimensions. Thus, the dimensions with more sub-dimensions weigh more than those with a smaller number of sub-dimensions. However, this might be misleading and not useful for the purpose of programming. In other words, there are sub-dimensions that are within the control and can be reversed, mitigated, and influenced by the stabilization interventions supported by the program as well as sub- dimensions that do not have detrimental effect. While, on the other hand, there are other severe sub-dimensions that the stabilization program cannot change their conditions. Thus, the latter sub- dimensions should carry more weight than the former ones. Therefore, sub-dimension #1.4 has a maximum score of 2 compared to sub-dimension #4.1 with a maximum score of 13. Moreover, the sub-dimensions scores will be added up to feed into the overall score of their respective dimensions, which will be assessed against the maximum weight for the dimension. For example, the security dimension carries a maximum weight of 17, which is assessed as below: • Green = ]11, 17] or 11 < $%&&' ≤ 17 • Yellow = ]5, 11] or 5 < +&,,-. ≤ 11 • Red = [0, 5] or 0 = 1&2 ≤ 5 Similarly, the scores of all dimensions will also be summed up to inform the overall decision towards intervening in certain areas. The anticipated maximum weight is 56, which is divided into three intervals as below4: • Green = ]36, 56] or 36 < $%&&' ≤ 56 • Yellow = ]18, 36] or 18 < +&,,-. ≤ 36 • Red = [0, 18] or 0 = 1&2 ≤ 18 3 The scores will be given to each subdimension based on the subjective interpretation of the findings 4 The frame of each interval is rounded to 18, except the top interval, which is larger than the lower and the middle intervals. 5 Global Communities | 8601 Georgia Avenue, Suite 300 | Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA T: (+1) 301.587.4700 | F: (+1) 301.587.7315 | www.globalcommunities.org Assessment Results Khanfir is the largest district of Abyan governorate in terms of population and area. The projection from the Central Statistical Organization (CSO) for 2017 for Khanfir’s population was 143,865. Over half of these populations live in Juar, which is the largest town in Khanfir and overall Abyan. Most people use the name Khanfir when referring to Juar. The stabilization interventions of YCST are implemented in Juar. Juar, as in other areas of Abyan, witnessed armed conflicts and changes of power and control for several years. The city was once the stronghold of and under the control of the Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) who entered the city in May 2011. This was due to the disappearance of the local authority government in 2007 and the lack of law and order. AQAP has presented itself as the service provider for the area. AQAP was later removed by the Yemeni government in mid-2012. However, Juar remained threatened by fighters of AQAP, who retreated to other areas in Abyan governorate. The city continued to be controlled by the Yemeni government until early 2015 when the Houthis took over districts of Abyan, including Lawdar and parts of Khanfir.
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