Relative Age Effects and Measures of Potential in the Primary Grades Rebecca O'brien University of Connecticut - Storrs, [email protected]
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University of Connecticut OpenCommons@UConn Doctoral Dissertations University of Connecticut Graduate School 9-5-2018 Relative Age Effects and Measures of Potential in the Primary Grades Rebecca O'Brien University of Connecticut - Storrs, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://opencommons.uconn.edu/dissertations Recommended Citation O'Brien, Rebecca, "Relative Age Effects and Measures of Potential in the Primary Grades" (2018). Doctoral Dissertations. 1970. https://opencommons.uconn.edu/dissertations/1970 Relative Age Effects and Measures of Potential in the Primary Grades Rebecca Lynn O’Brien, Ph.D. University of Connecticut, 2018 In education, relative age effects (RAE) are present when a student’s age when compared to that of his/her classmates has implications for scores on measures of achievement and performance. Researchers studying relative age have established significant, but inconsistent effects of being relatively older or younger in a grade level on measures of achievement. Test results are used to identify students’ needs for educational services and interventions, and the effects of relative age could influence a student’s access to these academic supports. This study used the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 2010-11 (ECLS-K:2011) dataset to analyze the effect of relative age on measures of potential in the early grades. The goal of this study was to investigate the strength and persistence of relative age effects on achievement assessments and teacher observations of student behavior in elementary school. I used an instrumental variable of the student’s predicted relative age to isolate the exogenous effects of students’ relative age in the fall of kindergarten. I integrated the instrumental variable framework into an autoregressive cross-lagged pathway to model the direct, indirect, and total effects of relative age on a measure of students’ academic achievement, teacher ratings of students’ academic performances, and teacher ratings of students’ learning behaviors. I identified an attenuation in the direct effects of relative age on students’ achievement and teacher ratings of students’ learning behaviors by the end of third grade. Further examination of the data revealed a Rebecca Lynn O’Brien, University of Connecticut, 2018 decrease in the total effect of relative age on students’ achievement by the end of third grade, but a sustained total effect of relative age on teacher ratings of students’ academic performance and learning behaviors from kindergarten through third grade. Relative Age Effects and Measures of Potential in the Primary Grades Rebecca Lynn O’Brien B.S., Centenary College of Louisiana, 2006 M.Ed., Northwestern State University, 2013 A Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the University of Connecticut 2018 Copyright by Rebecca Lynn O’Brien 2018 ii APPROVAL PAGE Doctor of Philosophy Dissertation Relative Age Effects and Measures of Potential in the Primary Grades Presented by Rebecca Lynn O’Brien, B.S., M.Ed. Major Advisor: _________________________________________________ Dr. Catherine A. Little Associate Advisor: ______________________________________________ Dr. D. Betsy McCoach Associate Advisor: ______________________________________________ Dr. Del Siegle Associate Advisor: ______________________________________________ Dr. E. Jean Gubbins University of Connecticut iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Thank you to my advisor and mentor, Catherine, for your kindness, patience, sense of humor, friendship, encouragement, editorial skills, and wisdom. You’ve given me the courage to learn things on my own, the support to do those things well, the opportunity to become a researcher, and an example of what it means to be an incredible advisor/boss/mentor. You’ve done more for me than I have the space to thank you for and I appreciate every bit of it. You’re the only person for whom I’ll use an Oxford comma! Thank you to Betsy for being so smart, patient, and enthusiastic. I could not have made it through these chapters without your guidance. Thank you to Del and Jean for your feedback and support over the last 5 years and for encouraging me to finally leave the nest. Thank you to Joe for providing comments and encouragement. Thank you to Alan for your invaluable help and insight. Thank you to Lisa and Kelly for becoming my work family, being the love and support I didn’t always think I needed. Thank you to Katy for your friendship, love, kindness, and generosity. I am so glad that our paths intersected and we got to walk a stretch of the road together. Thank you to the Tasker family for sharing laughs, feedback, and support. Thank you to my family for your continued love and support. There’s no way this paper would have ever seen daylight without your help to keep me moving forward. Thank you to Dave. You’ve believed in me from the beginning of this journey and I will never be able to thank you for helping me to make this work. To my dear Genevieve. You’re exactly what I never knew I needed. Your smile and laughter have gotten me through some of the most difficult days. You’ve given me the courage to finish this project and move on to whatever comes next in life. Your spunkiness, curiosity, enthusiasm, and easy-going nature have made being a mom an incredible joy. Thank you. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1 Theoretical Basis 3 Statement of the Problem 8 Statement of the Purpose 9 Research Questions 9 CHAPTER TWO REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE 11 Inconsistencies in Gifted Education 11 Relative Age Effects 13 Relative Age Effect in Athletic Performance 14 Relative Age Effects in Academic Performance 16 Persistence of Relative Age Effects 18 Demographic Differences in Relative Age Effects 22 Teacher Judgment and Perception of Student Performance 25 Accuracy of Teacher Judgments 28 Factors of Variation in Teacher Judgments 31 CHAPTER THREE METHODS 41 Research Questions and Hypotheses 41 Sample Description 43 Data Collection 44 Instruments 45 Direct Cognitive Assessments 45 Child-level Teacher Questionnaires 48 Demographics 49 Variables 49 Computation of Variables 49 Variable Coding 53 Missing Data 62 Data Cleaning 64 Inclusion Criteria 64 Model Modifications and Measures of Fit 65 Research Design 65 Instrumental Variable Approach 66 The Predictor and Outcome Relationship 71 The Outcome Variable Structure 72 Instrumental Variable Integration 76 Procedures 79 Descriptive Analysis 80 Factor Analysis 80 Structural Equation Modeling 96 v Data Analysis 102 Research Question 1 102 Research Question 2 102 Research Question 3 103 CHAPTER FOUR RESULTS 106 Descriptive Analyses 106 Structural Equation Modeling 114 Research Question 1 114 Research Question 2 121 Research Question 3 132 Conclusion 146 CHAPTER FIVE DISCUSSION 147 Research Question 1 147 Research Question 2 149 Research Question 3 154 Limitations 158 Implications 159 Areas for Future Research 160 Conclusion 161 APPENDIX A: Summarized Review of Literature 162 APPENDIX B: Sample Characteristics 166 REFERENCES 167 vi LIST OF TABLES Table 3.1 55 School-level Cutoff Dates and Codes Table 3.2 61 Summary of Important Dummy Coded Variables Table 3.3 82 Factor Loadings and Item Statistics of Student Achievement Scores Table 3.4 83 Factor Loadings and Item Statistics of Teacher Ratings of Academic Performance Table 3.5 84 Factor Loadings and Item Statistics of Teacher Ratings of Students’ Learning Behaviors Table 3.6 87 Correlations Between Student Achievement Assessment Indicators Table 3.7 88 Correlations Between Ratings of Students’ Academic Performance Indicators Table 3.8 89 Correlations Between Teacher Ratings of Student Learning Behavior Indicators Table 3.9 90 Scale Statistics of Student Achievement Assessment Scores Table 3.10 91 Scale Statistics of Teacher Ratings of Academic Skills Table 3.11 91 Scale Statistics of Teacher Ratings of Students’ Learning Behaviors Table 3.12 95 Correlations Between Latent Variables Table 4.1 107 Descriptive Statistics of Covariates Table 4.2 108 Correlations Between Covariates Table 4.3 110 Descriptive Statistics of Age-related Variables vii Table 4.4 111 Correlations Between Age-related Variables Table 4.5 113 Standardized Path estimates for Variables Regressed on Covariates Table 4.6 114 Model Fit Statistics for Phase 1 and 2 Models Table 4.7 119 Phase 1 Standardized and Unstandardized Path Estimates Table 4.8 123 Path Coefficient Estimates on Age-Related Variables Table 4.9 128 Phase 2 Standardized Total, Direct, and Indirect Effects Table 4.10 135 Correlations Between Latent Variables Table 4.11 137 Standardized Autoregressive Parameter Estimates Table 4.12 144 Standardized Cross-lag Parameter Estimates viii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 3.1 68 Diagrams Representing the OLS and IV Approaches to Estimating Causal Relationships Figure 3.2 71 The Path Model of the Instrumental Variable Approach Figure 3.3 73 Measurement Model for Wave 1 Latent Variables Figure 3.4 74 Measurement Model for Wave 2 Latent Variables Figure 3.5 74 Measurement Model for Wave 4 Latent Variables Figure 3.6 75 Measurement Model for Wave 6 Latent Variables Figure 3.7 75 Measurement Model for Wave 7 Latent Variables Figure 3.8 78 Phase 2 Autoregressive Cross-lagged Model Figure 3.9 92 CFA of Wave 1 Latent Variables Figure 3.10 92 CFA of Wave 2 Latent Variables Figure 3.11 93 CFA of Wave 4 Latent Variables Figure 3.12 93 CFA of Wave 6 Latent Variables Figure 3.13 94 CFA of Wave 7 Latent Variables Figure 3.14 97 Final Phase 1 Model of the Instrumental Variable Relationship Figure 3.15 101 Final Phase 2 Model ix Figure 4.1 118 The Phase 1 Structural Model with Standardized Path Coefficient Estimates Figure 4.2 124 Phase 2 Model With Highlighted Instrumental Variable and Relative Age Pathways Figure 4.3 136 Phase 2 Model With Highlighted Autoregressive Pathways Figure 4.4 145 Phase 2 Model With Highlighted Cross-lagged Pathways x CHAPTER ONE Introduction In the United States, formal schooling and the establishment of an annual cohort begins with kindergarten.