Ecuador : Potential Policies for the Future

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Ecuador : Potential Policies for the Future The Park Place Economist Volume 5 Issue 1 Article 17 4-1997 Ecuador : Potential Policies for the Future Jeremy Cunningham '97 Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.iwu.edu/parkplace Recommended Citation Cunningham '97, Jeremy (1997) "Ecuador : Potential Policies for the Future," The Park Place Economist: Vol. 5 Available at: https://digitalcommons.iwu.edu/parkplace/vol5/iss1/17 This Article is protected by copyright and/or related rights. It has been brought to you by Digital Commons @ IWU with permission from the rights-holder(s). You are free to use this material in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s) directly, unless additional rights are indicated by a Creative Commons license in the record and/ or on the work itself. This material has been accepted for inclusion by faculty at Illinois Wesleyan University. For more information, please contact [email protected]. ©Copyright is owned by the author of this document. Ecuador : Potential Policies for the Future Abstract In 1531 Spanish explorers embarked from Peru and landed in what is now modem day Ecuador. Peru was "the richest of the New World prizes won for the Spanish crown" (Ecuador, 1991), but the Spanish wanted to find more colonies to plunder. Drunk with tales ofgreat riches in Ecuador, King Charles I of Spain decided to send an explorer by the name of Francisco Pizzaro to investigate. Pizzaro and his men killed thousands of Inca tribesmen; they also looted and. pillaged everything that they could find. By the early 154Os, the whole ofwhat is now Ecuador was under Spanish control. This article is available in The Park Place Economist: https://digitalcommons.iwu.edu/parkplace/vol5/iss1/17 Ecuador: Potential Policies for the Future Jeremy Cunningham The body ofthis paper will consist ofthe many Indians were forced to work for years to following three parts: an introduction, a pay back their debts. Effectively, this was progress report, and a set of policy slavery. There were "real" slaves in Ecuador recommendations. The introduction will at this time, but to own them was far more introduce the history of Ecuador. The expensive than using mila labor. progress report will be devoted to painting an When Napoleon deposed King Ferdinand accurate picture of modem day Ecuador. of Spain and placed Joseph Bonaparte on the Current policies will be addressed as well as throne, many Spanish colonies in South current economic and social indicators. The America protested. In 1809, the first third section of this report is concerned with rebellions started in Ecuador. These early policy suggestions for Ecuador to follow in rebellions were savagely put down by order to develop ·at a stable pace. Bonaparte's forces. Over the next 13 years Ecuador struggled for independence. Little I. INTRODUCTION success was had by the poorly trained and equipped Ecuadorian rebels until the early In 1531 Spanish explorers embarked from 1820s. It was at that time that the two great Peru and landed in what is now modem day armies of Bolivar and San Martin were Ecuador. Peru was "the richest of the New systematically emancipating various Spanish World prizes won for the Spanish crown" colonies. Bolivar from Venezuela and San (Ecuador, 1991), but the Spanish wanted to Martin from Argentina aided the Ecuadorians find more colonies to plunder. Drunk with in their struggles for independence. On May tales ofgreat riches in Ecuador, King Charles 24, 1822, Ecuador had its sovereignty. I of Spain decided to send an explorer by the The history of free Ecuador has been name of Francisco Pizzaro to investigate. anything but tranquil since that day in 1822. Pizzaro and his men killed thousands of Inca There have been 86 different governments in tribesmen; they also looted and. pillaged control since 1822, and there have been 17 everything that they could find. By the early different constitutions drawn up. There have 154Os, the whole ofwhat is now Ecuador was been periods ofextreme economic boom and under Spanish control. times ofgreat hardship. Border disputes and The Spanish government established a the occasional armed coup have added to the feudal system that placed the Spanish as the tunnoil that has engulfed Ecuador over the last elite land owners and the natives as the 174 years. working class. A system known as mila was established. Under this system, "all able­ n. MODERN-DAY ECUADOR bodied free Indians were required to devote one year of their labor to some public or A. Economics private Spanish concern" (Ecuador, 1991). The Ecuadorian economy faces three These Indians were paid so poorly that they problems that seem ubiquitous in developing incurred large debts to their employers in order countries around the globe. These are chronic to survive. The Indians were not allowed to inflation, an often devalued currency, and leave the mita until all the debts were paid, so monstrous international debt. It is difficult to 48 Cunningham 0.0%~""""'"""~"" 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 Year , . Figure 1 : Annual Inflation Year Figure 2: Annual Sucre / Dollar Exchange Rate The Park Place Economist, v. 5 say which causes the other, but they are entire GNP in 1986 (World Tables, 1995). definitely related. Inflation averaged 47.5% This problem has only gotten worse over time between 1984 and 1994 (World Development because Ecuador continues to be basically a Report, 1996). To make matters worse, the monocrop economy with half of its export rise in inflation has not been marked by steady revenue coming from oil (Ecuador, 1991). As gains, but by violent shifts. Figure 1 shows the debt service grew, oil prices fell, and the wild ride that the Ecuadorian economy has government continued to devalue the currency. endured. Figure 2 shows how the Ecuadorian This further fed the inflation monster. As sucre has compared to the US dollar since inflation grew in Ecuador, foreign goods 1973. The sucre was pegged at 25 per dollar looked more affordable to the common citizen. for most ofthe 1970s. The government could When Ecuadorians wanted foreign goods, the afford to peg and defend the sucre because Ecuadorian government had to buy these Ecuador had enough foreign currency from foreign goods with foreign currency. The profitable oil sales on the world market to fight increase in demand for foreign currency and offany speculation. When the price ofoil fell decrease in demand for the Ecuadorian sucre in the 1980s, Ecuador found itself no longer caused the "real" price (the market price that able to defend its currency and was forced to would prevail ifthe sucre were not pegged) of devalue it. What followed was a series of the sucre to decrease. Since the sucre was devaluations. For a period in the .1980s, the pegged, it could not fall right away, but the Ecuadorian government abandoned having a foreign currency reserves of Ecuador were fixed exchange rate all together. This caused decreased in order to defend its currency. the value ofthe sucre to drop even further and Eventually, Ecuador had to devalue its helped inflation reach nearly 80 percent (see currency because it could not fight the market Figure 1). While all of this was happening, forever. This c~sed increased inflation, Ecuador was doing its part to add to the debt higher international debt, and the vicious circle crisis of the 1980s. In the 1970s and early continued. 1980s, Ecuador had borrowed heavily from By the earIy 199Os, Ecuador's government around the world. Ecuador, like several decided to try to stop this downward spiral developing countries, was using some of its and control inflation by once again pegging money for capital investment and some for the sucre to the dollar. They adopted what is current spending. Though the lenders were called a crawling peg. This means that the unhappy about this, it was hard for the devaluations are planned and in small Ecuadorian government to justify building and increments. The Ecuadorian government buying capital and infrastructure while its understood that they could not defend the population was hungry. Before the sucre for a very long period oftime, otherwise aforementioned drop in oil prices hit in 1986, the entire crisis of the 19805 would reoccur. 14% of Ecuador's entire GNP was from oil While the current devaluations are still painful, sales (Ecuador, 1991). Oil accounted for over they are not nearly as lethal as the devaluations 60% of all of Ecuador's exports (Ecuador, of the 1980s. The government is not 1991). In 1987, after the price" drop and spending huge sums of foreign reserves on despite an increase in production, oil was only defending the sucre; the central government 8% of GNP. This loss in export revenue, simply devalues soon after it is apparent that a coupled with skyrocketing world inflation that devaluation is needed. This causes inflation, forced the interest rates to rise on Ecuador's but it is planned and stable inflation. With a international loans, caused the net present more stable economy, the Ecuadorian value of their external debt to be SOOA» of the government has started to tighten money 50 Cunningham Year Figure 3: Annual Percent Change in GNP supply and reign in inflation (see the last 3 manufacturing subset in parentheses, was 38% years on Figure 1). The hope is that with (1 8%) in 1980 and, similarly, 38% (21%) in more controllable inflation, the "real" value of 1994 (World Development Report, 1996). the sucre will stabii and the international More industry must be developed and less debt will diminish. Ecuador has also dependence on oil must transpire for stable restructured its loans so that debt servicing is growth to occur.
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