Probability Theory - Part 1 Measure Theoretical Framework
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Measure-Theoretic Probability I
Measure-Theoretic Probability I Steven P.Lalley Winter 2017 1 1 Measure Theory 1.1 Why Measure Theory? There are two different views – not necessarily exclusive – on what “probability” means: the subjectivist view and the frequentist view. To the subjectivist, probability is a system of laws that should govern a rational person’s behavior in situations where a bet must be placed (not necessarily just in a casino, but in situations where a decision must be made about how to proceed when only imperfect information about the outcome of the decision is available, for instance, should I allow Dr. Scissorhands to replace my arthritic knee by a plastic joint?). To the frequentist, the laws of probability describe the long- run relative frequencies of different events in “experiments” that can be repeated under roughly identical conditions, for instance, rolling a pair of dice. For the frequentist inter- pretation, it is imperative that probability spaces be large enough to allow a description of an experiment, like dice-rolling, that is repeated infinitely many times, and that the mathematical laws should permit easy handling of limits, so that one can make sense of things like “the probability that the long-run fraction of dice rolls where the two dice sum to 7 is 1/6”. But even for the subjectivist, the laws of probability should allow for description of situations where there might be a continuum of possible outcomes, or pos- sible actions to be taken. Once one is reconciled to the need for such flexibility, it soon becomes apparent that measure theory (the theory of countably additive, as opposed to merely finitely additive measures) is the only way to go. -
Set Theory, Including the Axiom of Choice) Plus the Negation of CH
ANNALS OF ~,IATltEMATICAL LOGIC - Volume 2, No. 2 (1970) pp. 143--178 INTERNAL COHEN EXTENSIONS D.A.MARTIN and R.M.SOLOVAY ;Tte RockeJ~'ller University and University (.~t CatiJbrnia. Berkeley Received 2 l)ecemt)er 1969 Introduction Cohen [ !, 2] has shown that tile continuum hypothesis (CH) cannot be proved in Zermelo-Fraenkel set theory. Levy and Solovay [9] have subsequently shown that CH cannot be proved even if one assumes the existence of a measurable cardinal. Their argument in tact shows that no large cardinal axiom of the kind present;y being considered by set theorists can yield a proof of CH (or of its negation, of course). Indeed, many set theorists - including the authors - suspect that C1t is false. But if we reject CH we admit Gurselves to be in a state of ignorance about a great many questions which CH resolves. While CH is a power- full assertion, its negation is in many ways quite weak. Sierpinski [ 1 5 ] deduces propcsitions there called C l - C82 from CH. We know of none of these propositions which is decided by the negation of CH and only one of them (C78) which is decided if one assumes in addition that a measurable cardinal exists. Among the many simple questions easily decided by CH and which cannot be decided in ZF (Zerme!o-Fraenkel set theory, including the axiom of choice) plus the negation of CH are tile following: Is every set of real numbers of cardinality less than tha't of the continuum of Lebesgue measure zero'? Is 2 ~0 < 2 ~ 1 ? Is there a non-trivial measure defined on all sets of real numbers? CIhis third question could be decided in ZF + not CH only in the unlikely event t Tile second author received support from a Sloan Foundation fellowship and tile National Science Foundation Grant (GP-8746). -
Probability and Statistics Lecture Notes
Probability and Statistics Lecture Notes Antonio Jiménez-Martínez Chapter 1 Probability spaces In this chapter we introduce the theoretical structures that will allow us to assign proba- bilities in a wide range of probability problems. 1.1. Examples of random phenomena Science attempts to formulate general laws on the basis of observation and experiment. The simplest and most used scheme of such laws is: if a set of conditions B is satisfied =) event A occurs. Examples of such laws are the law of gravity, the law of conservation of mass, and many other instances in chemistry, physics, biology... If event A occurs inevitably whenever the set of conditions B is satisfied, we say that A is certain or sure (under the set of conditions B). If A can never occur whenever B is satisfied, we say that A is impossible (under the set of conditions B). If A may or may not occur whenever B is satisfied, then A is said to be a random phenomenon. Random phenomena is our subject matter. Unlike certain and impossible events, the presence of randomness implies that the set of conditions B do not reflect all the necessary and sufficient conditions for the event A to occur. It might seem them impossible to make any worthwhile statements about random phenomena. However, experience has shown that many random phenomena exhibit a statistical regularity that makes them subject to study. For such random phenomena it is possible to estimate the chance of occurrence of the random event. This estimate can be obtained from laws, called probabilistic or stochastic, with the form: if a set of conditions B is satisfied event A occurs m times =) repeatedly n times out of the n repetitions. -
Lecture Notes
MEASURE THEORY AND STOCHASTIC PROCESSES Lecture Notes José Melo, Susana Cruz Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto Programa Doutoral em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores March 2011 Contents 1 Probability Space3 1 Sample space Ω .....................................4 2 σ-eld F .........................................4 3 Probability Measure P .................................6 3.1 Measure µ ....................................6 3.2 Probability Measure P .............................7 4 Learning Objectives..................................7 5 Appendix........................................8 2 Chapter 1 Probability Space Let's consider the experience of throwing a dart on a circular target with radius r (assuming the dart always hits the target), divided in 4 dierent areas as illustrated in Figure 1.1. 4 3 2 1 Figure 1.1: Circular Target The circles that bound the regions 1, 2, 3, and 4, have radius of, respectively, r , r , 3r , and . 4 2 4 r Therefore, the probability that a dart lands in each region is: 1 , 3 , 5 , P (1) = 16 P (2) = 16 P (3) = 16 7 . P (4) = 16 For this kind of problems, the theory of discrete probability spaces suces. However, when it comes to problems involving either an innitely repeated operation or an innitely ne op- eration, this mathematical framework does not apply. This motivates the introduction of a measure-theoretic probability approach to correctly describe those cases. We dene the proba- bility space (Ω; F;P ), where Ω is the sample space, F is the event space, and P is the probability 3 measure. Each of them will be described in the following subsections. 1 Sample space Ω The sample space Ω is the set of all the possible results or outcomes ! of an experiment or observation. -
The Probability Set-Up.Pdf
CHAPTER 2 The probability set-up 2.1. Basic theory of probability We will have a sample space, denoted by S (sometimes Ω) that consists of all possible outcomes. For example, if we roll two dice, the sample space would be all possible pairs made up of the numbers one through six. An event is a subset of S. Another example is to toss a coin 2 times, and let S = fHH;HT;TH;TT g; or to let S be the possible orders in which 5 horses nish in a horse race; or S the possible prices of some stock at closing time today; or S = [0; 1); the age at which someone dies; or S the points in a circle, the possible places a dart can hit. We should also keep in mind that the same setting can be described using dierent sample set. For example, in two solutions in Example 1.30 we used two dierent sample sets. 2.1.1. Sets. We start by describing elementary operations on sets. By a set we mean a collection of distinct objects called elements of the set, and we consider a set as an object in its own right. Set operations Suppose S is a set. We say that A ⊂ S, that is, A is a subset of S if every element in A is contained in S; A [ B is the union of sets A ⊂ S and B ⊂ S and denotes the points of S that are in A or B or both; A \ B is the intersection of sets A ⊂ S and B ⊂ S and is the set of points that are in both A and B; ; denotes the empty set; Ac is the complement of A, that is, the points in S that are not in A. -
Borel Structure in Groups and Their Dualso
BOREL STRUCTURE IN GROUPS AND THEIR DUALSO GEORGE W. MACKEY Introduction. In the past decade or so much work has been done toward extending the classical theory of finite dimensional representations of com- pact groups to a theory of (not necessarily finite dimensional) unitary repre- sentations of locally compact groups. Among the obstacles interfering with various aspects of this program is the lack of a suitable natural topology in the "dual object"; that is in the set of equivalence classes of irreducible representations. One can introduce natural topologies but none of them seem to have reasonable properties except in extremely special cases. When the group is abelian for example the dual object itself is a locally compact abelian group. This paper is based on the observation that for certain purposes one can dispense with a topology in the dual object in favor of a "weaker struc- ture" and that there is a wide class of groups for which this weaker structure has very regular properties. If .S is any topological space one defines a Borel (or Baire) subset of 5 to be a member of the smallest family of subsets of 5 which includes the open sets and is closed with respect to the formation of complements and countable unions. The structure defined in 5 by its Borel sets we may call the Borel structure of 5. It is weaker than the topological structure in the sense that any one-to-one transformation of S onto 5 which preserves the topological structure also preserves the Borel structure whereas the converse is usually false. -
Random Variable = a Real-Valued Function of an Outcome X = F(Outcome)
Random Variables (Chapter 2) Random variable = A real-valued function of an outcome X = f(outcome) Domain of X: Sample space of the experiment. Ex: Consider an experiment consisting of 3 Bernoulli trials. Bernoulli trial = Only two possible outcomes – success (S) or failure (F). • “IF” statement: if … then “S” else “F” • Examine each component. S = “acceptable”, F = “defective”. • Transmit binary digits through a communication channel. S = “digit received correctly”, F = “digit received incorrectly”. Suppose the trials are independent and each trial has a probability ½ of success. X = # successes observed in the experiment. Possible values: Outcome Value of X (SSS) (SSF) (SFS) … … (FFF) Random variable: • Assigns a real number to each outcome in S. • Denoted by X, Y, Z, etc., and its values by x, y, z, etc. • Its value depends on chance. • Its value becomes available once the experiment is completed and the outcome is known. • Probabilities of its values are determined by the probabilities of the outcomes in the sample space. Probability distribution of X = A table, formula or a graph that summarizes how the total probability of one is distributed over all the possible values of X. In the Bernoulli trials example, what is the distribution of X? 1 Two types of random variables: Discrete rv = Takes finite or countable number of values • Number of jobs in a queue • Number of errors • Number of successes, etc. Continuous rv = Takes all values in an interval – i.e., it has uncountable number of values. • Execution time • Waiting time • Miles per gallon • Distance traveled, etc. Discrete random variables X = A discrete rv. -
1 Probabilities
1 Probabilities 1.1 Experiments with randomness We will use the term experiment in a very general way to refer to some process that produces a random outcome. Examples: (Ask class for some first) Here are some discrete examples: • roll a die • flip a coin • flip a coin until we get heads And here are some continuous examples: • height of a U of A student • random number in [0, 1] • the time it takes until a radioactive substance undergoes a decay These examples share the following common features: There is a proce- dure or natural phenomena called the experiment. It has a set of possible outcomes. There is a way to assign probabilities to sets of possible outcomes. We will call this a probability measure. 1.2 Outcomes and events Definition 1. An experiment is a well defined procedure or sequence of procedures that produces an outcome. The set of possible outcomes is called the sample space. We will typically denote an individual outcome by ω and the sample space by Ω. Definition 2. An event is a subset of the sample space. This definition will be changed when we come to the definition ofa σ-field. The next thing to define is a probability measure. Before we can do this properly we need some more structure, so for now we just make an informal definition. A probability measure is a function on the collection of events 1 that assign a number between 0 and 1 to each event and satisfies certain properties. NB: A probability measure is not a function on Ω. -
Propensities and Probabilities
ARTICLE IN PRESS Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 38 (2007) 593–625 www.elsevier.com/locate/shpsb Propensities and probabilities Nuel Belnap 1028-A Cathedral of Learning, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA 15260, USA Received 19 May 2006; accepted 6 September 2006 Abstract Popper’s introduction of ‘‘propensity’’ was intended to provide a solid conceptual foundation for objective single-case probabilities. By considering the partly opposed contributions of Humphreys and Miller and Salmon, it is argued that when properly understood, propensities can in fact be understood as objective single-case causal probabilities of transitions between concrete events. The chief claim is that propensities are well-explicated by describing how they fit into the existing formal theory of branching space-times, which is simultaneously indeterministic and causal. Several problematic examples, some commonsense and some quantum-mechanical, are used to make clear the advantages of invoking branching space-times theory in coming to understand propensities. r 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Propensities; Probabilities; Space-times; Originating causes; Indeterminism; Branching histories 1. Introduction You are flipping a fair coin fairly. You ascribe a probability to a single case by asserting The probability that heads will occur on this very next flip is about 50%. ð1Þ The rough idea of a single-case probability seems clear enough when one is told that the contrast is with either generalizations or frequencies attributed to populations asserted while you are flipping a fair coin fairly, such as In the long run; the probability of heads occurring among flips is about 50%. ð2Þ E-mail address: [email protected] 1355-2198/$ - see front matter r 2007 Elsevier Ltd. -
39 Section J Basic Probability Concepts Before We Can Begin To
Section J Basic Probability Concepts Before we can begin to discuss inferential statistics, we need to discuss probability. Recall, inferential statistics deals with analyzing a sample from the population to draw conclusions about the population, therefore since the data came from a sample we can never be 100% certain the conclusion is correct. Therefore, probability is an integral part of inferential statistics and needs to be studied before starting the discussion on inferential statistics. The theoretical probability of an event is the proportion of times the event occurs in the long run, as a probability experiment is repeated over and over again. Law of Large Numbers says that as a probability experiment is repeated again and again, the proportion of times that a given event occurs will approach its probability. A sample space contains all possible outcomes of a probability experiment. EX: An event is an outcome or a collection of outcomes from a sample space. A probability model for a probability experiment consists of a sample space, along with a probability for each event. Note: If A denotes an event then the probability of the event A is denoted P(A). Probability models with equally likely outcomes If a sample space has n equally likely outcomes, and an event A has k outcomes, then Number of outcomes in A k P(A) = = Number of outcomes in the sample space n The probability of an event is always between 0 and 1, inclusive. 39 Important probability characteristics: 1) For any event A, 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1 2) If A cannot occur, then P(A) = 0. -
Probability and Counting Rules
blu03683_ch04.qxd 09/12/2005 12:45 PM Page 171 C HAPTER 44 Probability and Counting Rules Objectives Outline After completing this chapter, you should be able to 4–1 Introduction 1 Determine sample spaces and find the probability of an event, using classical 4–2 Sample Spaces and Probability probability or empirical probability. 4–3 The Addition Rules for Probability 2 Find the probability of compound events, using the addition rules. 4–4 The Multiplication Rules and Conditional 3 Find the probability of compound events, Probability using the multiplication rules. 4–5 Counting Rules 4 Find the conditional probability of an event. 5 Find the total number of outcomes in a 4–6 Probability and Counting Rules sequence of events, using the fundamental counting rule. 4–7 Summary 6 Find the number of ways that r objects can be selected from n objects, using the permutation rule. 7 Find the number of ways that r objects can be selected from n objects without regard to order, using the combination rule. 8 Find the probability of an event, using the counting rules. 4–1 blu03683_ch04.qxd 09/12/2005 12:45 PM Page 172 172 Chapter 4 Probability and Counting Rules Statistics Would You Bet Your Life? Today Humans not only bet money when they gamble, but also bet their lives by engaging in unhealthy activities such as smoking, drinking, using drugs, and exceeding the speed limit when driving. Many people don’t care about the risks involved in these activities since they do not understand the concepts of probability. -
Determinism, Indeterminism and the Statistical Postulate
Tipicality, Explanation, The Statistical Postulate, and GRW Valia Allori Northern Illinois University [email protected] www.valiaallori.com Rutgers, October 24-26, 2019 1 Overview Context: Explanation of the macroscopic laws of thermodynamics in the Boltzmannian approach Among the ingredients: the statistical postulate (connected with the notion of probability) In this presentation: typicality Def: P is a typical property of X-type object/phenomena iff the vast majority of objects/phenomena of type X possesses P Part I: typicality is sufficient to explain macroscopic laws – explanatory schema based on typicality: you explain P if you explain that P is typical Part II: the statistical postulate as derivable from the dynamics Part III: if so, no preference for indeterministic theories in the quantum domain 2 Summary of Boltzmann- 1 Aim: ‘derive’ macroscopic laws of thermodynamics in terms of the microscopic Newtonian dynamics Problems: Technical ones: There are to many particles to do exact calculations Solution: statistical methods - if 푁 is big enough, one can use suitable mathematical technique to obtain information of macro systems even without having the exact solution Conceptual ones: Macro processes are irreversible, while micro processes are not Boltzmann 3 Summary of Boltzmann- 2 Postulate 1: the microscopic dynamics microstate 푋 = 푟1, … . 푟푁, 푣1, … . 푣푁 in phase space Partition of phase space into Macrostates Macrostate 푀(푋): set of macroscopically indistinguishable microstates Macroscopic view Many 푋 for a given 푀 given 푀, which 푋 is unknown Macro Properties (e.g. temperature): they slowly vary on the Macro scale There is a particular Macrostate which is incredibly bigger than the others There are many ways more to have, for instance, uniform temperature than not equilibrium (Macro)state 4 Summary of Boltzmann- 3 Entropy: (def) proportional to the size of the Macrostate in phase space (i.e.