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Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Electric Technology Adoption and Power Consumption for the United States

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Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Electric Technology Adoption and Power Consumption for the United States Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Electric Technology Adoption and Power Consumption for the United States Trieu Mai, Paige Jadun, Jeffrey Logan, Colin McMillan, Matteo Muratori, Daniel Steinberg, Laura Vimmerstedt, Ryan Jones, Benjamin Haley, and Brent Nelson Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Electric Technology Adoption and Power Consumption for the United States Trieu Mai, Paige Jadun, Jeffrey Logan, Colin McMillan, Matteo Muratori, Daniel Steinberg, and Laura Vimmerstedt National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ryan Jones and Benjamin Haley Evolved Energy Research Brent Nelson Northern Arizona University Suggested Citation Mai, Trieu, Paige Jadun, Jeffrey Logan, Colin McMillan, Matteo Muratori, Daniel Steinberg, Laura Vimmerstedt, Ryan Jones, Benjamin Haley, and Brent Nelson. 2018. Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Electric Technology Adoption and Power Consumption for the United States. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-71500. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/71500.pdf. iii This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. NOTICE This work was authored in part by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, operated by Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract No. DE-AC36- 08GO28308. Funding provided by U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office of Strategic Programs. The views expressed in the article do not necessarily represent the views of the DOE or the U.S. Government. This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) reports produced after 1991 and a growing number of pre-1991 documents are available free via www.OSTI.gov. Cover image from iStock 452033401. NREL prints on paper that contains recycled content. iv This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. Preface This report is one in a series of Electrification Futures Study (EFS) publications. The EFS is a multi-year research project to explore potential widespread electrification in the future energy system of the United States. Electrification is defined as the substitution of electricity for direct combustion of non-electricity-based fuels (e.g., gasoline and natural gas) used to provide similar services. The EFS is specifically designed to examine electric technology advancement and adoption for end uses in all major economic sectors as well as electricity consumption growth and load profiles, future power system infrastructure development and operations, and the economic and environmental implications of electrification. Because of the expansive scope and the multi-year duration of the study, research findings and supporting data will be published as a series of reports, with each report released on its own timeframe. The table below shows the various research topics planned for examination under the EFS and how this report fits with the other components of the study. Topic Relation to this Report Electric technology cost and performance Provides technology data used in this report projections (Jadun et al. 2017) Electrification demand-side adoption scenarios This report Electric system supply-side scenarios Relies on electricity consumption reported in this report Electricity consumption patterns Relies on technology adoption projections reported in this report Electric system operations Relies on the consumption patterns and supply- side scenarios from other reports, which rely on data from this report Impacts assessment Relies on the technology adoption projections in this report along with data from other reports This report is the second publication in this series and presents scenarios of electric end-use technology adoption and resulting electricity consumption in the United States. The scenarios reflect a wide range of electricity demand growth through 2050 that result from various electric technology adoption and efficiency projections in the transportation, residential and commercial buildings, and industrial sectors. The report describes the methodology, assumptions, and limitations of the analysis. The demand scenarios provided in this report will be used to inform the supply scenarios and impacts to be presented in future reports under the EFS project. Results from the current demand-side scenarios can also be used by other researchers who wish to explore implications of electrification and demand growth in the U.S. economy. More information, the supporting data associated with this report, links to other reports in the EFS study, and information about the broader study are available at www.nrel.gov/efs. v This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. Acknowledgments The Electrification Futures Study (EFS) is led by researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) but relies on significant contributions from a large collaboration of researchers from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Evolved Energy Research, Electric Power Research Institute, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Northern Arizona University, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. We would like to thank all contributors for useful analysis, data, and input throughout the project. A technical review committee of senior-level experts provided invaluable input to the overall study, with some committee members sharing thoughtful comments to this specific report as noted on the following page. Although the committee members offered input throughout the study, the results and findings from this analysis and the broader EFS do not necessarily reflect their opinions or the opinions of their institutions. The technical review committee is comprised of the following individuals: Doug Arent (committee chair) Jonathan Hughes National Renewable Energy Laboratory University of Colorado Boulder Sam Baldwin Michael Kintner-Meyer U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Steve Brick John Larsen Clean Air Task Force Rhodium Group Steve Clemmer Bryan Mignone Union of Concerned Scientists ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company Laura Cozzi Granger Morgan International Energy Agency Carnegie Mellon University Francisco de la Chesnaye Patrick Riley Electric Power Research Institute GE Global Research Keith Dennis Joan Ogden National Rural Electric Cooperative Association University of California Davis Carla Frisch Laurie ten Hope U.S. Department of Energy California Energy Commission Arnulf Grübler Susan F. Tierney International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Group, Inc. Analysis Howard Gruenspecht Massachusetts Institute of Technology vi This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. This analysis benefited greatly from thoughtful comments and suggestions from several colleagues who generously reviewed either the entire report or portions of it in draft form, including: • Sue Tierney (Analysis Group) • Maureen Hand (California Air Resources Board) • John Agan, Sam Baldwin, Tony Bouza, Steve Capanna, Kerry Cheung, Gregory Dierkers, Paul Donohoo-Vallett, Kelly Fleming, Carla Frisch, Elke Hodson, Rudy Kahsar, Benjamin King, Rachael Nealer, Kara Podkaminer, Jonah Steinbuck, and Dan Ton (DOE) • Baskar Vairamohan (Electric Power Research Institute) • Erin Boedecker and Kelly Perl (U.S. Energy Information Administration) • Dennis Johnson, Sharyn Lie, and Christopher Ramig (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency) • Laura Cozzi and Jacopo Tattini (International Energy Agency) • Jeff Deason, Jared Langevin, Bill Morrow, and Max Wei (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory) • Nate Blair, Jill Engel-Cox, John Farrell, Elaine Hale, Jack Mayernik, Caitlin Murphy, Mark Ruth, Yinong Sun, and Eric Wilson (NREL) • Wale Odukomaiya (Oak Ridge National Laboratory) • Michael Kintner-Meyer (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory) • Don Anair, Youngsun Baek, Steve Clemmer, Julie McNamara, and Jimmy O’Dea (Union of Concerned Scientists). We also thank the following NREL staff: Mike Meshek for editing support; Stacy Buchanan and Devonie McCamey for graphics support; Thomas Jenkin and Mark Ruth for conducting the literature review presented in Appendix A; and Aaron Brooker for support with the light-duty vehicle adoption modeling detailed in Appendix B. Of course, any errors and omissions are the sole responsibility of the authors. Primary funding support for the EFS is provided by the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office of Strategic Programs. We especially thank Steve Capanna and Paul Donohoo-Vallett of DOE for their support and leadership throughout the EFS and for this report. vii This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. List of Acronyms and Abbreviations ADOPT Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool AEO Annual Energy Outlook ANL Argonne National Laboratory ASHP air source heat pump BEV battery electric vehicle CAGR compound annual growth rate CBECS Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey CDD cooling degree day DCFC direct current fast charger DOE U.S. Department of Energy EFS Electrification Futures Study EIA U.S. Energy Information Administration FERC Federal Energy Regulatory Commission GDP gross domestic product HDD heating degree day
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