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14 June 2021

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14 June 2021 PLANTATION 14 June 2021 News flow for week 7 to 11 June Sector report NEUTRAL Gan Huey Ling, CFA [email protected] 03-2036 2305 Rationale for report: Sector update Reuters cited government officials as saying that the Indonesian authorities have yet to decide on whether to cut their CPO export levy as the levies remained at their highest for five months in a row. Indonesia’s deputy minister of food and agriculture said that the authorities routinely review the levy but no decisions about cutting levies have been made yet. Indonesia’s director-general of the industry ministry said that the issue was being debated but nothing had been decided. Downstream sector industry groups showed support for a higher levy for palm oil, saying it guaranteed supply and higher value-added palm oil shipments. Reuters also reported that Cargill Inc is building a US$200mil palm refinery in Lampung, southern Sumatra, which is expected to be completed late next year. The new refinery is part of a push by Cargill to fully oversee its palm oil supply chain “from plantation to customer” to meet North American and European demand for more sustainable palm oil. The construction of the refinery has started and is slated to be completed in late 2022F. According to the National Post, customs data showed that China’s soybean imports rose in May from the previous month as more cargoes from Brazil cleared customs. China brought in 9.61mil tonnes of soybeans in May, up 29% from 7.45mil tonnes in April when some Brazilian shipments were delayed. An industry expert said that the figures were within market expectations. He added that imports during the May–July period are usually quite large each year. Other industry experts said that soybean arrivals in the next two months are expected to exceed 10mil tonnes, adding to the already healthy supplies of beans. Bloomberg reported that Neste Oyj, the world’s biggest renewable-diesel producer, is looking to conve rt everything from tree limbs to landfill garbage into fuel for motor vehicles and planes as demand surges for low carbon fuel sources. In Canada’s Quebec province, Neste aims to build a refinery that would use forestry waste such as tree tops and branches to produce renewable diesel. The push for new feedstock comes as Neste is also looking to expand into the markets for “green” jet fuel and bioplastics. Neste has a head start as the world’s biggest maker of sustainable aviation fuel. According to the Financial Times, China’s import appetite has raised prospects in the US Farm Belt. The US is on course to ship a record US$37.2bil worth of farm goods to China this year, led by sales of soybeans, corn, tree nuts, beef, wheat and poultry, the USDA forecasts. This is 23% of USA’s agricultural exports, estimated at US$164bil this year. Increased QuickTake demand from China, along with supply constraints on corn and soybeans caused by a drought in Brazil, have driven a surge in global food prices. Plantation Sector 14 June 2021 TABLE 1 : REGIONAL VALUATION COMPARISONS PE (x) Div yield (%) ROE (%) FY21F FY22F FY23F FY21F FY22F FY23F FY21F FY22F FY23F Indonesia PT Astra Agro 12.9 13.2 12.1 2.1 2.8 2.6 6.6 6.3 7.8 PT Bakrie Sumatra - - - - - - - - - PT London Sumatra 11.8 11.8 11.4 2.8 3.3 3.9 7.1 7.0 7.0 BW Plantation - - - - - - - - - Gozco Plantation - - - - - - - - - PT SMART - - - - - - - - - PT Salim Ivomas Pratama - - - - - - - - - JA Wattie - - - - - - - - - Provident Agro - - - - - - - - - Multi Agro Gemilang - - - - - - - - - Austindo Nusantara - - - - - - - - - Dharma Satya Nusantara 10.6 9.1 7.9 2.2 2.7 3.3 9.0 10.3 9.6 Sampoerna Agro - - - - - - - - - Sawit Sumbermas - - - - - - - - - Simple average 11.8 11.4 10.5 2.4 3.0 3.3 7.6 7.9 8.1 Singapore Wilmar International 14.2 13.4 12.8 3.1 3.3 3.3 8.3 8.5 8.5 Olam International - - - - - - - - - Noble Group - - - - - - - - - Golden Agri Resources 8.4 7.4 9.3 3.8 3.8 2.7 6.2 5.3 5.2 Indofood Agri Resources - - - - - - - - - Kencana Agri - - - - - - - - - First Resources 11.0 9.4 8.9 3.7 4.0 4.2 12.5 12.7 12.5 Bumitama Agri 9.3 7.6 7.1 4.3 5.2 5.3 11.0 11.7 11.8 Global Palm Resources - - - - - - - - - Mewah International - - - - - - - - - GMG Global - - - - - - - - - Simple average 10.7 9.5 9.5 3.7 4.1 3.9 9.5 9.6 9.5 Malaysia Genting Plantations 21.1 22.2 20.4 2.3 2.6 2.7 5.7 6.1 6.4 IJM Plantations 23.8 18.9 21.1 1.1 2.5 2.0 7.9 9.8 8.1 United Plantations - - - - - - - - - IOI Corporation 23.2 23.3 23.2 2.5 2.6 2.7 11.2 10.8 10.7 Kuala Lumpur Kepong 20.1 20.9 20.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 10.7 9.9 9.6 Felda Global Ventures 16.8 18.6 17.2 3.4 3.1 3.5 7.6 6.4 7.3 Kulim 1.0 2.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 Sarawak Oil Palms 8.7 10.2 10.5 3.3 2.6 3.1 10.4 8.8 7.8 TH Plantations 11.2 13.3 16.8 - - - 6.7 5.1 4.0 TSH Resources 15.8 16.0 16.0 1.7 1.8 1.8 6.6 5.9 5.6 SD Plantation 20.5 24.3 26.6 3.3 3.1 3.1 9.7 8.1 7.9 Sarawak Plantations 16.2 11.5 12.6 4.0 4.0 4.0 12.2 9.3 8.2 TDM Bhd - - - - - - - - - Ta Ann Holdings 10.0 11.0 10.2 4.4 4.2 4.3 8.9 7.6 7.7 Jaya Tiasa 7.0 9.1 10.9 4.3 3.4 11.9 6.6 - - Hap Seng Plantations 13.6 14.8 14.6 4.8 4.3 4.8 6.4 5.5 5.6 Simple average 14.9 15.4 16.0 3.3 3.3 4.1 8.2 7.6 7.4 Source: Bloomberg AmInvestment Bank Bhd 2 Plantation Sector 14 June 2021 DISCLOSURE AND DISCLAIMER This report is prepared for information purposes only and it is issued by AmInvestment Bank Berhad (“AmInvestment”) without regard to your individual financial circumstances and objectives. Nothing in this report shall constitute an offer to sell, warranty, representation, recommendation, legal, accounting or tax advice, solicitation or expression of views to influence any one to buy or sell any real estate, securities, stocks, foreign exchange, futures, investment or other products. AmInvestment recommends that you evaluate a particular investment or strategy based on your individual circumstances and objectives and/or seek financial, legal or other advice on the appropriateness of the particular investment or strategy. The information in this report was obtained or derived from sources that AmInvestment believes are reliable and correct at the time of issue. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the stated facts are accurate and views are fair and reasonable, AmInvestment has not independently verified the information and does not warrant or represent that they are accurate, adequate, complete or up-to-date and they should not be relied upon as such. All information included in this report constitute AmInvestment’s views as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Notwithstanding that, AmInvestment has no obligation to update its opinion or information in this report. Facts and views presented in this report may not reflect the views of or information known to other business units of AmInvestment’s affiliates and/or related corporations (collectively, “AmBank Group”). This report is prepared for the clients of AmBank Group and it cannot be altered, copied, reproduced, distributed or republished for any purpose without AmInvestment’s prior written consent. AmInvestment, AmBank Group and its respective directors, officers, employees and agents (“Relevant Person”) accept no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits and/or damages arising from the use or reliance of this report and/or further communications given in relation to this report. Any such responsibility is hereby expressly disclaimed. AmInvestment is not acting as your advisor and does not owe you any fiduciary duties in connection with this report. The Relevant Person may provide services to any company and affiliates of such companies in or related to the securities or products and/or may trade or otherwise effect transactions for their own account or the accounts of their customers which may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest. This report is not directed to or intended for distribution or publication outside Malaysia. If you are outside Malaysia, you should have regard to the laws of the jurisdiction in which you are located. If any provision of this disclosure and disclaimer is held to be invalid in whole or in part, such provision will be deemed not to form part of this disclosure and disclaimer. The validity and enforceability of the remainder of this disclosure and disclaimer will not be affected. AmInvestment Bank Bhd 3 .
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