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Home , Algiers Agreement (2000), Hailemariam Desalegn, Meles Zenawi, Oromo Liberation Front

NO. 26 JULY 2018 Introduction

Abiy Superstar – Reformer or Revolutionary? Hope for Transformation in Annette Weber

It really is quite amazing. In the few weeks since was elected Prime Minister of Ethiopia, nearly all the established facts that underpin Ethiopian politics have started to unravel. The new Prime Minister has apologized to the population for the mistakes of the past, ended the border war with without making any demands and dismissed key officials from the old regime. At the same time, he has lifted the state of emergency and liberalized the economy – all this was previously considered unthinkable in Ethiopia. Control, internal security and a close-knit col- lective of former liberation fighters were the defining elements of a style of politics that provided stability and economic growth for a long time, but neglected the country’s rapidly growing young population and its concerns.

When Abiy Ahmed succeeded Ethiopia’s Abiy was elected, it was the first time an Prime Minister, , Oromo had taken power. His family in- there was no plan for regime change. Abiy cludes Muslims, Orthodox Christians and had previously worked in the cyber unit Evangelicals, Tigray, Amhara and Oromo. of the intelligence service, INSA, and was This background suggests that Abiy will a soldier in the war waged against Eritrea not pursue ethnonationalist policies. between 1998 and 2000. He then enjoyed a stellar career in the Oromo Peoples’ Democratic Organization (OPDO). After the The beginning of change victory of the liberation movements over the military regime in 1991, OPDO formed Since the end of 2015, tens of thousands a government coalition, the Ethiopian have been protesting against the compulso- People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front ry purchase of land set aside for expanding (EPRDF), with three other parties. The the capital, . More than 700 coalition was dominated by the Tigrayan people were killed in the subsequent crack- People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) until the down and 23,000 arrested. The state of death of Prime Minister in emergency imposed at the time shattered 2012. When 41-year-old political scientist the relationship between the government

and the people. A movement called youth, speaks of freedom and the need for Bilisummaa Oromo (Oromo Youth Move- political transformation. He released a large ment) became a symbol of protests. Strikes number of political prisoners, the opposi- were sometimes controlled via social media, tion exiled abroad has returned for dialogue including through bloggers in the diaspora. and violent opposition groups listed as ter- The government had no adequate response rorist organizations, such as Ginbot 7, have to the protests and tried to reassure people also been invited to participate in Ethio- by consulting selected opposition parties. pia’s political process. Abiy has promised a When this had little effect and the protests free press, he has lifted Internet blockades rekindled, Prime Minister Desalegn ordered and wants to open up the mobile network the release of a number of political prison- to foreign providers. Last but not least, he ers. He also announced his resignation, say- wants to change the constitution to limit ing he intended to make ‘room for political the Prime Minister’s term of office. change’. However, ethnic conflicts, primarily For the first time in Ethiopia’s recent over land, continue and more than one history, a transformation is being attempted million people have been displaced so far. from within. Since the overthrow of Em- That the Council of the Government peror in 1974, each change of Coalition (EPRDF) elected Abiy Ahmed government had been bloody. By contrast, Prime Minister by 108 out of 180 votes was Abiy neither questions the EPRDF nor does astounding. The Tigray party, which only he break radically with his predecessors. represents six percent of the population, But the Ethiopian people and the political has largely been controlling the political, class not only reacted with incredulous economic and military interests of the amazement and euphoric optimism. Given country since the overthrow of the military Ethiopia’s history of armed conflict, there is regime led by in widespread fear among the population that 1991. Although the EPRDF is formally com- the pendulum could swing back towards posed of parties from all four major regions, violence. On 23 June, an attack was carried a greater degree of participation by the out at a major event for the Prime Minister other political parties was inconceivable in Addis Ababa: two people died and 150 because the TPLF showed the greatest mili- were injured. This shows that not everyone tary might during the liberation struggle is in favour of peaceful change. It is still and was led by its charismatic and decisive unclear who was behind the attack. It was leader, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, until not too long ago that an opposition alliance his death in 2012. The TPLF, probably out of won a large majority of votes in the 2005 a sense of superiority, did not propose any elections in the capital and throughout the of its own candidates for the position and country. The ruling party reacted to the had no doubt that their preferred former unexpected outcome of the elections with parliamentary speaker, Abadula Gemeda, repression. would have the support of both the Oromo At his cabinet reshuffle in mid-May 2018, and the majority of Amhara and Tigray. Abiy removed long-serving and powerful EPRDF officials, which caused some aston- ishment. The majority of the cabinet now Political upheaval consists of Oromo, the previously influen- tial TPLF remains with only two ministers. Prime Minister Abiy has been touring the Barely three months after his election, country since April. In his inaugural ad- almost all influential actors in the ‘deep- dress, he acknowledged that the previous state’ – the intelligence service, the mili- government had made mistakes and cam- tary and the TPLF-associated economic com- paigned for political openness and recon- plex – have been replaced. This can be ciliation with Eritrea – formerly sacrosanct viewed as a necessary restructuring and as a taboos. Abiy, who wants to engage the bold move by the Prime Minister who wants

SWP Comment 26 July 2018

2 to garner support particularly from young (OLF, later , protesters, the opposition and Democratic Front – ODF), plans to return Oromo. This is risky for Abiy but, on the after more than 20 years in exile. Many other hand, it represents the promised oppositionists, however, do not trust the change that tens of thousands of demon- abrupt turnaround. They remain cautious strators have called for in recent years. and have succumbed to the understandable The fact that there has so far been no reflex of focussing on criticism of the TPLF. resistance from the security authorities, the Even opposition activists who had called army and the Central Committee, testifies for violence, who were imprisoned as ter- not least to the credibility of the hierarchy rorists or denounced as such, have been re- and loyalty to the state that has character- leased during the amnesties of recent weeks. ized Ethiopia for centuries. They are allowed to remain politically If the old guard does not want to be side- active as long as they renounce violence. lined, it will have three strategies. Firstly, it could become an advocate of the reforms and hope to regain leading positions in the Economic policy: more of the 2020 elections. Secondly, it could withdraw same but quicker and allow itself to be celebrated as a pio- neer of democratic reform or, thirdly, op- The population of Ethiopia, more than 100 pose the movement and try to reinstate the million people, lives mainly in rural areas old order through repressive measures – and practices subsistence farming. Abiy and probably also by force. It would be de- Ahmed backing the potential for change sirable for the reformers to gain the upper among young people. However, economic hand. They could then use their experience renewal was not invented by the new Prime in government and political infrastructure Minister. Under Meles Zenawi, the develop- to secure their political survival in the next ing state – a mix of revolutionary democ- elections. However, it is also possible that racy and planned economy – prevailed; the EPRDF might implode, should there infrastructure development and economic be fierce infighting between the internal liberalization began under Hailemariam factions. Desalegn. In this regard, Abiy policies are more continuity than turnaround, but he is achieving a much higher hit rate. Next steps Nevertheless, the liberalization of the economy has by no means been just a suc- The coming weeks before the EPRDF party cess story. The industrial parks, where com- conference in August are crucial. If Abiy panies such as H&M, Primark, Tchibo and succeeds in consolidating his power beyond KiK produce their goods, were attacked ethnic ties and in integrating opposition during the protests. The anger was largely groups from home and abroad, Ethiopia aimed at the country’s nationalization: could succeed in what has never been The affected regions have little say in major achieved in the region by a regime emerg- agricultural projects or urban expansion. ing from a liberation movement: simulta- The construction of the GERD dam to elec- neously introducing transformation and trify the region beyond Ethiopia, the rail- generation change. way line from the Red Sea to the economic The next step could be a national dia- zone near the capital, industrialization and logue or, less ambitiously, preparations for the establishment of textile companies are the next election. In both cases, the oppo- generating average economic growth of sition will play an important role. The first ten percent. Whether it can keep up with steps have been taken to bring opposition demographic trends is by no means certain. leaders living abroad back to the country. Abiy is committed to the privatization of Lencho Letta, founding member of the the profitable Ethiopian Airlines, as well as

SWP Comment 26 July 2018

3 the infrastructure, telecommunications and Implosion or transformation energy sectors. Despite economic success, there is insufficient foreign currency. The Whether the young, dynamic Prime Minis- International Monetary Fund issued a debt ter Abiy Ahmed can succeed in creating warning for Ethiopia in 2018. Critics fear jobs with a complete revolution and in that liberalization has been too rapid and bringing about the freedom and regional that privatization will only bring about relaxation hoped for will become clear short-term gains and long-term corruption in the coming months. Uniting a divided problems. The United Arab Emirates has country without upsetting the political just granted a loan of 3 billion US dollars class is a Herculean task. © Stiftung Wissenschaft including a direct injection in the central Abiy was able replace the old vocabulary und Politik, 2018 bank of one billion US dollars – a win for of revolutionary democracy with a new All rights reserved Abiy. narrative of awakening and participation. Whether he can translate this into political This Comment reflects practice depends on three factors: the wil- the author’s views. Return to orderly power lingness of the population to support the The online version of political transformation without being this publication contains In addition to opening up the interior of guided by the particular interests of ethno- functioning links to other the country, the Prime Minister’s decision nationalists; the will of the political opposi- SWP texts and other relevant to withdraw from occupied territories in tion to constructively participate in shaping sources. neighbouring Eritrea represents a precipi- the political arena, for example through SWP Comments are subject tous U-turn that no Prime Minister has elections; and last but not least, the willing- to internal peer review, fact- previously dared to pursue. The war be- ness of the political class to place the inter- checking and copy-editing. tween Eritrea and Ethiopia from 1998 to ests and well-being of the country ahead of For further information on 2000 killed more than 70,000 soldiers on retaining power for themselves. our quality control pro- both sides. The embattled border town of cedures, please visit the SWP website: https://www.swp- has been occupied by Ethiopian berlin.org/en/about-swp/ troops since the Treaty of in 2000 quality-management-for- and an arbitration award recognizing Eri- swp-publications/ trea. Not everyone has welcomed the gov- ernment’s official statement to adhere to SWP the Algiers agreement. But this implemen- Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik tation earned international recognition. German Institute for The fact that Eritrean’s President sent a International and delegation to Addis Ababa for consultations Security Affairs and that the Prime Minister is planning a visit to can already be considered a Ludwigkirchplatz 3–4 10719 Berlin great success for the new Prime Minister’s Telephone +49 30 880 07-0 policy. Furthermore, Abiy Ahmed is trying Fax +49 30 880 07-100 to rebuild Ethiopia into a regional regulatory www.swp-berlin.org power through regional consultations and [email protected] negotiations with the Gulf States. Orderly

ISSN 1861-1761 power of this nature is absolutely necessary because the situation in the region is tense Translation by Martin Haynes with the conflict over the Nile, the militari- zation of the Red Sea and the ongoing con- (English version of flicts in and South . SWP-Aktuell 32/2018)

Dr. Annette Weber is a Senior Associate in the Middle East and Division at SWP.

SWP Comment 26 July 2018

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